Atkore Inc. Q4 FY2022 Earnings Call

Good morning. My name is Rob, and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Atkore's Fourth Quarter and Full-Year 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, John Deitzer, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined today by Bill Waltz, President and CEO; as well as David Johnson, Chief Financial Officer. We will take your questions after comments by Bill and David. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward-looking statements regarding future events or financial performance of the company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially. Please refer to our SEC filings in today's press release, which identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward-looking statements. In addition, any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA is a non-GAAP measure. Reconciliations of non-GAAP measures and a presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix to today's presentation. With that, I'll turn it over to Bill.

Thanks, John, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 3, I'm pleased to report that Atkore again delivered outstanding operating results. During our discussion today, David will discuss the quarterly and full-year financials as we normally do, but we'd also like to take this opportunity to review our successful growth journey over the past few years, provide additional details on our strategy and share our longer-term outlook for the business. But before we get into that, let me start with a quick review of some of our highlights from the year. Turning to Slide 4. 2022 was a fantastic year across all facets of the organization. We delivered record financial results, made great progress on our operational plans, and we were recognized for our innovation, customer service and ESG achievements. Of course, none of this could be done without our talented employees who worked tirelessly to support our customers and I'd like to take this moment to recognize them for their great work. In addition, we continue to execute our proven capital deployment model. In FY 2022, we deployed over $950 million through a combination of capital expenditures, M&A, and share repurchases. Last November, we announced a goal to deploy over $1 billion in cash over the next two to three years and now with the recent acquisition of Elite Polymer Solutions and the $150 million in share repurchase we've completed since October 1, we've achieved that goal significantly ahead of schedule. In terms of repurchases, we bought back more than 15% of the recent market capitalization over the past 12 months. David and I are extremely proud to see our vision for Atkore realized through the achievement of these strategic objectives. We work diligently to evolve Atkore into a leader in the industry that can be relied upon to consistently deliver on its commitments to our employees, customers, and shareholders. Without a doubt, we are leading a team that is setting a high standard for its say-do ratio. Now, I'll turn the call over to David to talk through the results from the fourth quarter and the full year.

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our consolidated results on Slide 5. In the fourth quarter, net sales increased 11% year-over-year to $1 billion and our adjusted EPS increased 26% to $5.52. For the full year, we achieved $3.9 billion in revenue and our adjusted EPS grew 66% to $21.55. Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was $1.3 billion. Turning to Slide 6 in our consolidated bridges. Volumes were positive in the quarter and in addition, we saw strong October volumes, which gives us confidence as we enter 2023. Looking at the full year, net sales increased significantly due to higher selling prices and contributions from recent acquisitions, both of which contributed positively to the growth in adjusted EBITDA as well. Very pleased with the performance in FY 2022 and are confident in our ability to execute and drive value creation through capital deployment in the future. With that, I'll turn it back to Bill to speak with you about our growth initiatives.

Thanks, David. Turning now to Page 8, we're confident Atkore is an outstanding company and a compelling investment opportunity. With our exceptionally strong balance sheet and market-leading positions supported by our disciplined operational focus and commitment to our values, we are well-positioned to deliver long-term value for all of our stakeholders. David and I will spend the next few minutes touching on some of the highlights of our operations and strategy and then move into more detail regarding our future expectations and performance. Moving to Slide 9, the Atkore Business System is the foundation of our company and it drives everything we do every day. For example, on Slide 10, you can see our broad offering of product solutions across the full lifecycle of the construction process. It is because of the Atkore Business System that we have the market insights and distribution capabilities to effectively provide the electrical distribution channel and the electrical contractor with the mission-critical products in a timely manner. This has been and remains a true differentiator for Atkore. On Slide 11, our operating segments are highly integrated and aligned to support the electrical and overall infrastructure of ability. Between our segments, we share brands and customers and many of our safety and infrastructure products in the U.S., such as cable tray and metal framing, support electrical contractors as well. Turning to Slide 12, the sales and earnings of the businesses have grown significantly since 2017. As we discussed in past earning calls, we've evolved our business by leveraging our foundational Atkore Business System. This process-driven approach has informed many of the strategic decisions over the past several years, especially in pricing and M&A decisions. For example, we made strategic decisions to reduce our retail exposure and drive price increases in select categories. These decisions combined with market declines in areas such as Steel Conduit have resulted in a $100 million decline in volumes over the past five years. What's notable, however, is that the loss of earnings resulting from that decline has been negligible. This is a fantastic testament to our successful vision, strategy, and execution that focuses on the most profitable opportunities for our business. As we look at the significant benefit we've driven in regards to our pricing and profitability, we estimate that approximately 40% of that benefit is sustainable going forward. Turning to Slide 13, we've leveraged both organic and inorganic investments in high-growth areas to improve our business mix and increase profitability. This transformation has enabled us to grow our sales from $1.5 billion in 2017 to just under $4 billion today and to more than double our adjusted EBITDA margin percentage over that same period. Consistent execution and thoughtful decision making has driven this success and enabled us to continue our mission to be the customer's first choice. Through the changes in our sales mix, we've also increased our total addressable market opportunity, as well as our capability to successfully capture these opportunities in the future. With that, I'll turn the call back to David, who will walk us through the end markets we serve and underlying market fundamentals and megatrends that support our business.

Moving to Slide 14, one of the successes we have achieved in recent years is due to the universal nature of our products and our ability to serve multiple end markets. In addition, our products are used throughout the entire life cycle of the building construction process. Looking forward, the underlying fundamentals of our end markets are strong. Slide 15 outlines several of the external factors we track monthly and notably the rolling 12-month average for each of them is moving in the positive direction compared to a year ago. Our solid market fundamentals are underpinned by the megatrends that support our diverse product portfolio as shown on Slide 16. While our different product categories have varying levels of exposure to these trends, this ensures that we are not too dependent on any one demand driver or one single area of our opportunity. For example, we believe the Electrification of Everything trend will be a steady demand driver across our entire private portfolio, while the expected investments by certain utilities to underground power lines will have an outsized benefit on our plastic pipe and conduit products. In addition, the projected growth in solar and the benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act should advantage our mechanical tube products as this balanced approach will be integral to our continued success as we move forward. With that, I'll turn it back to Bill.

Thanks, David. On Slide 17, we've outlined our conduits of growth. M&A is central to our growth strategy and we have a robust pipeline and a proven playbook that we will utilize when pursuing and executing acquisitions. Whether through M&A or organic investments, we are also focused on growing key categories. For example, we believe our expansion in HDPE products and large mechanical tubing will open up significant growth opportunities for us in the future and I'll touch on both momentarily. Lastly, we seek to be our customers' first choice in part by striving to grow our focused product categories and deliver innovation. Underpinning all these efforts is our goal to improve the customer experience and making it easy to do business with Atkore. This is achieved through our digital investments and our strategy of one order, one delivery, and one invoice. Turning to Slide 18, we have a very disciplined and thoughtful approach to M&A. With each deal we make, we are focused on driving synergy improvements through the execution of the Atkore Business System. Over the past several years, these synergies have been a key driver in our growth and return on invested capital. Slide 19 demonstrates the outstanding progress we made in terms of M&A over the past several years. We deployed $649 million in M&A between FY 2017 and FY 2022 to expand our geographical presence, bolster our product capabilities, and enter into new markets. Of that, $329 million was spent on acquisitions between FY 2017 and FY 2021. That group of deals traded at a combined result of less than 1x revenue and less than 2x adjusted EBITDA in 2022, representing tremendous synergy improvement driven by the execution of our Atkore Business System. Our track record of successful integration reaffirms our expectation that the recently completed acquisitions will help drive our future performance. Along those lines, turning to Page 20, we'd like to welcome the employees of our latest acquisition, Elite Polymer Solutions, which we acquired approximately two weeks ago. We're happy to have you join our team and look forward to growing and strengthening our HDPE portfolio together. As outlined on Slide 21, the HDPE product category represents an approximately $7 billion market opportunity. Through our strategic acquisitions and organic investments, we expect to be a leader in the conduit products for telecom and broadband applications and a Top 10 player overall. Our investments this year have enabled us to better serve customers and meet the growing demands resulting from the expansion of 5G Networks and broadband access for rural communities. Another investment this year, as outlined on Slide 22, is large mechanical tube production. With key investments in our facilities in Arizona and Indiana, we believe we are well-positioned to capture the growth from end markets such as solar. Supporting our market-driven approach is our focus on new product innovation and prioritizing the categories we believe we have the right to win. Turning to Slide 23, because we have a broad and diverse set of products, we have several opportunities to gain share in the key categories in which we operate. Our diversified approach is central to our success and also enables us to contribute to our customers' and contractors' success. I'll now turn the call back over to David, who will discuss how these initiatives can help drive our future financial performance.

Thanks, Bill. On Slide 25, we outlined our strong financial performance over the past several years across various metrics. I'd like to call your attention to the strength of our balance sheet and our reduction in our gross leverage ratio. As you know, we take a disciplined approach to capital allocation and maintain a strong balance sheet, always a focus of ours, especially in an important and uncertain macroeconomic environment. Although we are concerned about the potential for a global recession in the near term and a U.S. recession over the next 12 to 18 months, we are still moving forward with our projections for FY 2023 and beyond, given the strength of contractor backlogs in the market demand environment. For example, several other large companies in the electrical industry have spoken about the growth in their backlog, which in turn will drive future demand for our products. That being said, 2023 may be quite volatile given the current economic uncertainties. Turning to our outlook for fiscal year 2023 on Page 26, we expect net sales to be flat to down in 2023 and we expect adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $850 million to $950 million. This is $80 million higher than our preliminary perspective provided previously. This outlook does not include any expected benefits from the tax credits associated with the Inflation Reduction Act as we expect the majority of these credits will flow through to our customers. We prepared an illustrative bridge between FY 2022 and FY 2023 on Page 27 with the key drivers. As we mentioned several times previously, the pricing outperformance that we've enjoyed over the past several years has started to normalize and we expect lower adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS in FY 2023 versus FY 2022. That being said, we do expect solid mid-single-digit volume growth this year with strong incremental margins. Moving to Slide 28, even with the projected lower earnings next year, we still expect to generate healthy cash flow in FY 2023 and beyond. We've updated our capital deployment framework to reflect that we've already achieved the goal we set out last November to deploy $1 billion over two to three years. Looking forward, we expect cash flow from operating activities to average 100% of net income over the next several years. With that strong cash flow, we will continue to invest in both organic and inorganic growth, as well as to continue our share repurchase program. Our Board just approved an increase in expenses to our prior share repurchase program. We're now halfway through our authorization with about $650 million remaining to deploy through November 2025. Turning to Slide 29, we believe the initiatives that Bill walked through today in combination with our updated capital deployment model will drive significant value creation over the next several years. The EPS earnings bridge is illustrative. By FY 2025, we expect to achieve greater than $18 per share in adjusted EPS. We've moved our focus to EPS because we believe some of the factors impacting our business, such as commodity input cost fluctuation and other items make EPS a more relevant target metric. In addition, focusing on EPS allows us to fully reflect the benefits from our capital deployment model, which we expect to happen in combination with our conduits of growth. Achieving more than $18 per share is a lofty goal, but we believe this is well within our reach. With that, I will turn it back to Bill.

Thanks, David. We are very pleased with what we've accomplished this fiscal year. We're even more excited about the opportunities ahead. Moving to Slide 30, Atkore has the foundation in place and strong megatrends propelling us to deliver on our goal of greater than $18 in adjusted EPS by the end of 2025. We believe our disciplined operational focus, market-leading positions, and strong financial profile make Atkore a compelling investment. I'm confident in the team, strategy, and processes we put in place to continue Atkore’s strong trajectory, and I firmly believe the best is yet to come for our company. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for questions.

Your first question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC. Your line is open.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning, Deane.

Good morning, Deane.

I appreciate all the guidance and longer-term goal specifics. That's really helpful. I know there's lots of focus on pricing and pricing normalization and you've given some good insight here. Can we refer to Slide 12, because this is a really interesting split that you've given at the bottom of the page between price and costs where you identified the estimated pricing outperformance versus sustainable pricing improvements? Maybe just kind of give us a sense of what the assumptions are there and just kind of clarify the definitions of those two buckets because by appearance, it looks like 60% of the pricing that outperformance you've gained is not sustainable? Is that – or that's the part that gets normalized? So, just kind of take us through the assumptions there.

Yes. So, great set of questions, Deane. I'll start. Obviously, this is an estimate going forward, but we are triangulated by looking at every product line on what we've sustained in the past because some of our product lines, by the way, are still increasing in profit margins, even as commodity costs are going down and that ties back to supply demand and also as factory efforts that are part of our own self-help initiatives, like our one order, one delivery, one invoice strategy, and the price premiums that we can achieve for that. What this is saying is to go, hey, $400 million or that, we think we're actually going to hold on to. If you look back and you've covered us since we've gone public, you'll be familiar with the corporation; every year we've gained on price versus cost. That said, we do think and we have seen some signs this year that we are probably going to give up some price. Now, our internal team is focused on how we can turn that around and drive price growth. But I think it's a realistic external view to model around. Our job, obviously, is to meet our anchor points, say $18 a share, but if we can hold on to more of this $585 million, it even means the $18 goes up. So, I think it’s a realistic number that we've triangulated from a couple of perspectives.

Alright. That's really helpful. Now, maybe just kind of a follow-up here is the way we've thought about pricing normalization and that's consistent with what you've just laid out here, but If I think about it as kind of three dynamics that there is market demand. So, we can still see and you've given those indicators that there is good demand maybe if you can give us a sense of backlog? The supply advantages that you have as a national supplier, the one invoice, etc. and also then the dynamics on the input costs; we can all see what's happened to PVC pricing, but again that's not in its own driving the normalization. It's part of it. So, if we think about it as three separate dynamics, the demand that you're seeing, what kind of backlog you expect and your advantages as a national supplier, and then the impact of the lower input costs?

Yes. So, perfect, Deane. So, market demand, we're optimistic. The month-over-month indicators are all optimistic, and sometimes these different factors do not include all the investments we've cited, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the Infrastructure Act, which includes $65 billion to put fiber optic lines underground. There are numerous positive trends, and even if there is a consumer recession, the non-residential market is likely to be less impacted. We are optimistic about market demand and the megatrends supporting it. Regarding supply advantages, we're seeing mid-to-high single-digit price premium compared to our competitors due to our bundle pricing strategy where customers appreciate the convenience of streamlined orders and deliveries. As such, we expect to grow market share by 100 to 200 basis points higher than industry average growth rates, along with favorable market dynamics. Input costs are beginning to subside with steel prices and copper prices falling, and although PVC may see pressure towards the end of the year, we have the ability to manage price dynamics and cross-sell products effectively. We’re optimistic about mid-single-digit organic growth and substantial M&A contributions on top of that. Overall, I think we are at a pivotal point for Atkore, following an incredible last half-decade of performance.

Yes, that's really helpful. And I just wanted to touch on your guidance. Mostly on the cadence that you're expecting for the year; the first quarter guide is well above expectations. What's your insight into the first half versus the second half dynamic? Is there a typical summer seasonality expected?

Yes, great question, Deane. I would say, based on our guidance of $240 to $260 million in Q1 and $850 million to $950 million for the year, typically we see summer seasonality in the business. We aim for rational and logical numbers, and we want to avoid underestimating unexpected factors like natural gas prices or strikes which could impact operations. I’m confident in the numbers we've put forward and in our initiatives that will drive organic growth while still addressing potential headwinds in pricing dynamics in the PVC market.

That's all very helpful. Thank you.

Thank you, Deane.

Your next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz from Citigroup. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning, everyone.

Good morning, Andy.

How are you, Andy?

So, volume growth in Q4 was significantly positive after a few quarters of negativity. Was that more a function of channel destocking coming to an end or the easing of supply chain headwinds? And can you also talk a little bit more about your core markets? You noted strong non-res indicators and solid contractor backlogs, but the ABI softened a bit recently in October. Are you seeing any signs of weakening in core non-res markets, and what assumptions are you using for the non-res markets in FY 2023?

Yes. That's a great set of questions, Andy. I believe we've discussed previously that much of the channel destocking is behind us. Thus, the low single-digit growth we observed aligns with that sentiment. Our products experienced mid-to-high-single-digit growth, thus indicating market resilience. Regarding the Architectural Billing Index, while it did drop, it signifies a slight moderation rather than a downturn, and our internal indicators, along with key construction metrics, suggest optimism about demand moving forward. As for backlog, we’re also hearing from competitors indicating strong project backlogs, which gives us confidence in our performance throughout FY 2023.

Andy, adding to Bill's comments, the demand is broad-based. There's significant activity surrounding airports, medical facilities, schools, and convention centers. This broad range of investments keeps us optimistic about our markets.

Very helpful, guys. Shifting focus to FY 2025, it appears you project mid-teens EPS growth with continued pricing normalization after 2023. Can you clarify that? What are the underlying market conditions needed to hit that $18 goal, and why wouldn't pricing normalization continue if commodity prices fall further? Please discuss your assumptions regarding share count and net leverage in that forecast.

Yes, it's a good question, Andy. We're projecting a low-single-digit market growth outlook over that period, but we also expect to realize growth from our initiatives. Pricing normalization may continue, but we believe that by and large, the bulk of it will be behind us by year-end. Furthermore, our growing operational efficiencies and processes will enhance our pricing power. On capital deployment, while we've been conservative, we still expect favorable levels of buybacks similar to historical levels. Regarding share count, we will likely maintain levels consistent with what we guided for in 2023, extending to 2025.

Got it. Just one quick clarification. The $585 million on pricing that you mentioned—when you look at Slide 27 in your 2023 outlook, it seems you're indicating that roughly 10% of that total is being given back. Is that an accurate assessment, and will you effectively be giving back this majority this year?

That's correct. Your assessment is accurate, Andy.

Okay. Thank you.

Thanks, Andy.

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Moore from CJS. Your line is open.

Alright. Good morning, guys. Amazing quarter, as always.

Good morning.

Can we talk a bit about free cash flow? It looks like it was a strong quarter, but on a yearly basis, it didn't meet your target due to inventory being up significantly. Can we talk about the free cash flow outlook for 2023? Is there some potential catch-up there? I understand CapEx may increase, etc. Just would love to hear your thoughts on 2023 free cash flow.

Yes, absolutely. In general, we expect the percentage of adjusted net income to be slightly higher in FY 2023. While operating cash flow may be reduced due to lower EBITDA projections, we anticipate the absence of working capital headwinds we've faced in last two years will be a contributing factor. Furthermore, we'll invest more in CapEx due to the robust organic growth opportunities. This investment in capabilities, such as the Dallas build-out and HCP investments, may impact 2023 free cash flow metrics.

Got it. Very helpful. Can we discuss the HDPE versus PVC markets? Can you provide insight into the interest rate sensitivities of these end markets? Given the 5G driver and residential side, are there any notable differences?

Yes. Good set of questions, Chris. I would say that both product lines and the markets they serve are very promising. HDPE has a strong demand trajectory, backed by government funding set aside for infrastructure implementation. We're looking at high single-digit compounded growth for the next five to seven years. Our positioning there is solid, as well as in the PVC market, which will benefit from strengthening trends in infrastructure hardening. Additionally, we have identified innovative product lines that utilize reduced materials, benefiting contractors and ourselves. While there might be headwinds in the residential market, it's relatively small for our operations.

Additionally, Chris, even though we've noted some softness in residential markets, we're observing stability and growth in multifamily developments, and that’s advantageous for us. Our broader portfolio is also more positively impacted by multifamily growth than by residential alone.

Understood. Finally, regarding the $18 adjusted EPS goal, do you have a share count guide range that corresponds with that figure?

I would suggest looking at our guidance for 2023 and just rolling it forward to 2025.

We have some optionality built in. Between M&A and share repurchases, it's difficult to pinpoint an exact share count because share prices can fluctuate. Balancing optionality and flexibility is critical.

Very helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks, guys.

Thank you, Chris.

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Dankert from Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. First off, I'd echo the earlier comments on Slide 12. Excellent waterfall, I really do appreciate it. On 2023 specifically, your midpoint EBITDA guidance increased; what’s giving you that confidence? Is it demand holding up well? Is it pricing? Any additional details on what’s driving that midpoint increase would be great.

I think it's a little bit of everything, Chris. Obviously, it's easier to provide Q1 guidance as we are halfway through the quarter. Pricing remains firm as we anticipate mid-single-digit volume increases. Our investments, which will come to fruition later this year, are also influencing our optimism towards meeting our guidance. While we increased our guidance by $50 million, we signal that there's limited risk on the downside. We take great pride in our record of not missing a single earnings target, and we don’t expect to break that trend.

I appreciate that, and about HDPE. You guys have been very active in M&A; what’s the pipeline looking like? Are there still opportunities or are you looking for more on the HDPE side?

We’ve been busy and there are still opportunities available in the HDPE market. It's essential to note that there remains a broader TAM beyond just HDPE, with robust opportunities for M&A in other product categories.

Yes, completely agree with David. The investment in organic lines in Dallas is also key to expanding our portfolio. The acquisitions we've undertaken have been very accretive to our core because they've integrated well with our business system. The performance since their acquisition has been exceptional, thanks to our proven system and processes.

Thanks for the insights, guys. Best of luck for fiscal 2023.

Thank you, Chris.

Before we conclude, let me summarize my three key takeaways from today's discussion. First, fiscal 2022 was an outstanding year for Atkore. Second, we are well-positioned to build on our positive business momentum and have a strong outlook for FY 2023. Third, our strategy will drive further value creation into the future as we continue to execute on our growth opportunities and deliver on our updated capital deployment model. With that, thank you for your support and interest in our company and we look forward to speaking with you during our next quarterly call. This concludes the call for today. This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.