Brinks Co Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good morning, and welcome to The Brink's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Presentation. Please note, this event is being recorded. This call and the Q&A session will contain forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from projected or estimated results. Information regarding factors that could cause such differences are available in today's press release and presentation and in the company's SEC filings. The information presented and discussed on this call is representative of today only. Brink's assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. The call is copyrighted and may not be used without written permission from Brink's. I will now turn it over to your host, Jesse Jenkins, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Jenkins, you may begin.

Thanks, and good morning. Here with me today are CEO, Mark Eubanks; and CFO, Kurt McMaken. This morning, Brink's reported third quarter 2025 results on a GAAP, non-GAAP, and constant currency basis. Most of our comments today will be focused on our non-GAAP results. These non-GAAP financial measures are intended to provide investors with a supplemental comparison of our operating results and trends for the periods presented. We believe these measures allow investors to better compare performance over time and to evaluate our performance using the same metrics as management. Reconciliations of non-GAAP results to their most comparable GAAP results are provided in the press release, the appendix of the presentation, and our 8-K filings, all of which can be found on our website. I will now turn the call over to Brink's CEO, Mark Eubanks.

Thanks, Jesse, and good morning, everyone. Starting on Slide 3. Brink delivered another solid quarter of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth. The 5% total company organic growth included an acceleration from Q2 to 19% for ATM Managed Services and Digital Retail Solutions or AMS/DRS as we continue to make progress expanding into large and growing markets. For the second consecutive quarter, we delivered record Q3 EBITDA and operating profit margins, driven by strong productivity, the benefits of AMS/DRS revenue mix, and continued pricing discipline. Third quarter EBITDA margins were 19%, up 180 basis points from the prior year. The improvement was highlighted by 320 basis points of expansion in North America as we make progress driving a balanced agenda around growth in AMS/DRS and cost productivity with the Brink's Business System. With AMS/DRS now accounting for 28% of total revenue in the quarter and more productivity initiatives underway, we are expecting continued margin progress going forward. Cash generation also continues to improve. In Q3, we delivered $175 million of free cash flow, a year-over-year increase of 30%. We continue to shorten our cash cycle and deliver capital efficiency across our asset base with vehicle counts down again this quarter and DSOs improved by 5 days. Looking at the quarter in total, we delivered on our guidance commitments with performance exceeding the midpoint of our communicated ranges for the quarter. Organic growth remains healthy in the mid-single digits with AMS/DRS accelerating quarter-over-quarter. We continue to make steady progress improving profitability as we drive lasting structural changes to the way we operate on both the front lines and in the back office. Supported by this strong momentum, we are passing through our Q3 midpoint outperformance to the full year and affirming our previously increased full year framework. Kurt will have more details on the guidance at the end of the presentation. Turning to Slide 4. You can see how our year-to-date performance supports our value creation strategy. First, we're focused on delivering organic growth primarily from our higher-margin subscription-based services of AMS and DRS. We are tracking in line with our full year framework with organic growth of 5% for the total company and 18% AMS/DRS year-to-date. The revenue growth and the execution of productivity enhancements have driven EBITDA margin expansion of 40 basis points year-to-date with acceleration in the second half. For the second consecutive quarter, we've achieved record EBITDA margins in both North America and Europe. Free cash flow conversion is also improving. Year-to-date free cash flow has increased to 78% and trailing 12-month conversion has improved to 50% of adjusted EBITDA. Supported by growth in AMS/DRS acceptance in the marketplace, we are making structural changes in the business that we believe will continue to pay dividends for years to come. Our cash cycle continues to shorten with year-to-date DSO improvement of 5 days. We are also improving capital efficiency as we reduce our CapEx needs and leverage our network more efficiently. And finally, we are focused on maximizing value for our shareholders through disciplined capital allocation. This year, capital has primarily been allocated to our share repurchase program, where we've utilized $154 million year-to-date to repurchase approximately 1.7 million shares at roughly $89 per share. Even with the share repurchases, we have moved our net debt-to-EBITDA leverage ratio to 2.9x in the third quarter, within our targeted range of 2x to 3x. We expect to stay within the range through year-end and remain on track to allocate at least 50% of our total free cash flow towards shareholder returns in the full year. So far, we have made meaningful progress against these value creation drivers this year. Turning to Slide 5. You can see the progression of our revenue mix towards AMS and DRS over the last several years. As a reminder, we split our business into 2 main customer offerings, cash and valuables management or CVM and AMS/DRS. Our CVM business includes the traditional parts of the business like point-to-point cash logistics, money processing, and our international shipping business, we call Global Services, while AMS includes revenue from our ATM managed services business as well as digital retail solutions. With full year organic growth in AMS and DRS trending towards the high end of our mid to high teens growth framework, we are increasing our mix expectations to between 27% and 28% of total revenue by year-end. While AMS/DRS is now 27% of our total revenue on a trailing 12-month basis, we are still in the early stages of penetrating this large and growing total addressable market. As we've previously discussed, unvended retail locations and ATM outsourcing opportunities represent a 2x to 3x market expansion opportunity. Looking closer at each of the customer offerings, organic growth in CVM remains consistent with our expectations. Growth was driven by good pricing discipline and Global Services performing similarly to the second quarter. As a reminder, CVM organic growth includes the conversion of existing customers over to AMS/DRS. AMS/DRS accelerated from 16% organic growth in Q2 to 19% this quarter. Acceleration occurred in both AMS and DRS individually and was balanced across geographic segments. In DRS, our pipelines remain robust, and we see consistent strength in verticals like pharmacies, gas stations, C-stores, quick-serve restaurants as well as fashion and jewelry verticals. In AMS, we have completed the onboarding of several key accounts and are at full revenue run rates with QT and RaceTrac here in North America and Sainsbury's in Europe with several additional customers set to be onboarded in the fourth quarter in LATAM and the Middle East. Turning to Slide 6. I thought it would be helpful to show a map of our current AMS footprint. The highlighted 51 countries represent Brink's presence across the globe with those in light blue representing countries with existing AMS agreements. We've also added a select few customer logos to illustrate our presence in these markets. This map had almost no AMS presence less than 4 years ago. Leveraging our existing customer relationships with banks and retailers as well as our acquired and organically built capabilities in AMS, we've been able to expand this market to what it is today. As we've previously said, this is just the beginning. While there are some impressive customers already in our portfolio, we are still in the early stages of this opportunity. As we consistently deliver reliable service with a total lower cost of ownership for customers, we see penetration opportunities both in the countries we already serve as well as the other geographies where we still have a presence. The current penetration rate for ATM outsourcing is still low. As we've previously discussed, there is an opportunity for the current addressable market to expand by 2x to 3x as more financial institutions make the shift to this win-win value proposition. This growing opportunity, coupled with an equally compelling retail backdrop in DRS provides confidence in our strategy for years to come. On Slide 7, I'll provide a quick update on our margin improvement journey in the key North America segment. The margin progression begins on the top line, where we've improved the revenue quality by shifting to higher-margin AMS/DRS. On a trailing 12-month basis, AMS/DRS now represents 31% of revenue in this segment. Since 2022, this business line has grown by 33% with strong conversion rates and steady new customer growth driving continued market penetration. Other areas of margin enhancement include our pricing discipline and the deployment of waste elimination initiatives through the Brink's Business System. These improvements are coming through the P&L with less direct labor expenses and lower fuel consumption. Even with the healthy top line growth, we are seeing consistent vehicle and employee count reductions and our safety performance continues to improve to record levels. In fact, since 2023, our total recordable incident rate or TRIR is down 33%. There are many studies that indicate positive correlation between higher safety records and improved shareholder returns. These returns happen because a safer work environment enables higher employee engagement, resulting in higher labor productivity, better service quality, resulting in higher customer satisfaction, which all ultimately leads to higher growth and profits. As we continue to shift to AMS/DRS and increase productivity, we are targeting to be at least 20% EBITDA margin in this segment over the midterm. Before I hand it over to Kurt to go through the details of the quarter, I want to thank our team for executing against our strategy. We delivered another solid quarter while meeting our commitments and advancing our strategy. Growth in the AMS/DRS business lines accelerated. Our profit margins expanded to record highs and our cash generation continues to improve. Supported by large and growing markets, ample productivity opportunities, and consistent execution, I remain confident we have the right team and strategy in place. I'm excited for the future and encouraged about how far we've come. And with that, I'll hand it to Kurt to discuss the financials, and I'll come back for Q&A.

Thanks, Mark. I'll begin on Slide 9 with a look at the quarter. Revenue of over $1.3 billion increased 6% with 5% organic growth and a 1% tailwind from foreign currency. Adjusted EBITDA was up 17% to $253 million, and operating profit was up 24%. Record profit margins slightly ahead of our expectations were driven by productivity, AMS/DRS mix benefits, and pricing discipline. Earnings per share of $2.08 was up 28%, driven by strong profit growth and the benefits of our share repurchase program. As Mark mentioned earlier, free cash flow was strong this quarter with improvement in the cash cycle on accounts receivable, accounts payable, and improved capital efficiency as we continue to shift our business to less capital-intensive AMS/DRS offerings. Trailing 12 months free cash flow is up over $200 million with conversion of 50%. We've been more balanced in our pacing of cash generation compared to the prior year and are still expecting to deliver our full year framework target of between 40% and 45% conversion. On Slide 10, organic revenue growth was $59 million, with most of the growth coming from higher-margin subscription-based AMS and DRS. It's important to note that CVM growth was and will continue to reflect AMS and DRS customer conversions. In Q3, we estimate this to be roughly 2 to 3 points of growth in CVM. Moving to the right side of the page, organic revenue growth of $59 million became EBITDA growth of $34 million for an incremental margin of 58%. Currency changes increased revenue by 1% or $13 million, with favorability in the lower-margin euro and British pound, partially offset by currency devaluation from the Argentine peso. The FX flow-through to EBITDA was approximately 7.5% due to the geographic mix of currency. Despite this, we are pleased with our performance in the quarter with our total incremental profit conversion of 47%. Moving to Slide 11, starting on the left. Operating profit was up $37 million to $188 million with a record margin of 14.1% on strong productivity in line of business revenue mix. Interest expense was flat year-over-year at $63 million, which is also roughly in line with our expectation for Q4. Tax expense was $35 million in the quarter, representing an effective tax rate of just under 28%, slightly lower than the Q2 rate. Income from continuing operations was $88 million. Walking back up to adjusted EBITDA, depreciation and amortization was $62 million, primarily reflecting increased depreciation from growth in AMS and DRS equipment. Stock compensation and other was $6 million in the quarter, and we still expect a slight decrease in stock-based compensation over the full year to below $30 million. In total, third quarter adjusted EBITDA of $253 million and margin of 19% was above the midpoint of our guidance for the quarter with strong execution on AMS/DRS growth and productivity. Let's move to Slide 12 to discuss our capital allocation framework. We have a healthy menu of organic OpEx investments that we are making to drive AMS and DRS growth. These high-return investments remain our first call for capital. Next, we reduced leverage at quarter-end to 2.9x net debt-to-EBITDA within our targeted range of 2x to 3x and slightly ahead of our expectations for the quarter. Our main use of capital this year continues to be shareholder returns, primarily through our share repurchase program. We have repurchased approximately 1.7 million shares year-to-date at an average price of just over $89 per share. We plan to remain active through the end of the year, and we remain on track to return at least 50% of our full year free cash flow to shareholders. We have been pleased with the results of our share repurchase program, which delivered EPS accretion of $0.08 in the quarter and $0.33 year-to-date. And finally, on M&A, our posture on deals is consistent. We have a full pipeline and continue to explore accretive opportunities that have a strong strategic fit, attractive returns, and align with our broader capital allocation framework. Potential deals would most likely help us further penetrate the large and growing addressable AMS and DRS markets. An example of this was the KAL deal we discussed last quarter. By following this framework, we are committed to allocating capital in ways that will compound cash flow in the future and ultimately enhance long-term shareholder value. Moving to the guidance on Slide 13. In the fourth quarter, we expect revenue of $1.355 billion at the midpoint of our range, reflecting organic growth in the mid-single digits. Using current spot rates, FX is expected to be a year-on-year tailwind of 1 to 2 points. The organic revenue guidance assumes AMS/DRS growth at the high end of our framework. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $267 million and $287 million, and EPS is expected to be between $2.28 and $2.68. Next to this Q4 guidance, you can see what this implies for the full year relative to our full-year framework. On the right side of the slide, our organic growth framework remains consistent from the beginning of the year. We are still expecting to deliver mid-single-digit total organic growth, supported by mid to high teens organic growth for AMS/DRS. EBITDA margins are expected to expand between 30 and 50 basis points with conversion of EBITDA to free cash flow of between 40% and 45%. We remain on track to return more than half of that free cash flow to our shareholders through our share repurchase plan and dividend. Supported by the growth and margin expansion we have already seen year-to-date, we are confident in our outlook for the balance of the year. And with that, we're happy to now take your questions. Operator, please open the line.

Our first question today comes from George Tong of Goldman Sachs.

You increased your full year growth outlook for AMS/DRS to be in the high teens. Can you elaborate on the client traction you're seeing in both AMS and DRS that drove you to increase your outlook?

Sure. George, this is Mark. We had a solid quarter this year, not only in sales, as you can see that trend continuing, but also in our pipeline, which gives us strong visibility into Q4 and the first half of next year. We're experiencing growth in both AMS and DRS, and each segment is progressing well independently as we continue to expand across all regions. This quarter's presentation provides a brief overview of our AMS footprint, showing that we have more penetration opportunities in those markets. There are positive signs globally, indicating that we have numerous opportunities ahead. On the DRS side, our pipeline remains robust. Last quarter, we noted that approximately a quarter of our signings and growth were from conversions of our CIT customers to DRS. This trend has accelerated in Q3, with about a third of our global DRS signings now stemming from traditional customers. We're pleased with the advancements within our existing customer base and our ongoing exploration of untapped markets. Although our growth is becoming more balanced globally, with positive progress in North America and the other regions, we're also observing continued growth in Europe despite our relatively high penetration there. Latin America and other regions are expected to gain momentum as well, particularly in Brazil and Mexico, which are showing strong performance for us. These areas are among our least penetrated regions but present substantial opportunities, characterized by cash-intensive economies, extensive ATM networks, and significant retail distribution for the untapped market. We see a continued opportunity in this 2x to 3x total addressable market going forward.

And then turning to your CVM business. The revenue performance relatively flat organically in the quarter, and it slowed a bit from about 1% growth in the prior quarter. Can you talk more about trends you're seeing here and factors that can either drive a reacceleration in CVM growth or perhaps further moderation in organic performance?

Certainly, the big thing there as we continue to convert, as I mentioned, to AMS/DRS, accelerating from 25% to basically 33%. That probably accounted for 2 to 3 points of organic headwind on the CVM business. And the only other piece of the CVM business really is our Global Services business, which really continued to perform in line with Q2 globally, which is sort of mid-single digits.

Our next question comes from Tim Mulrooney of William Blair.

Just first of all, on AMS/DRS, I'm wondering if you could talk about some of the things that you're doing internally to drive continued growth in that business, which is growing faster than what we were expecting this year. And I know you're winning new programs, but any details you could provide, I guess, without getting into competitive issues around maybe like…

Sure.

Are you adding additional channels, Mark? Any like adjustments to incentives, either in the field or the corporate side? Like what's really helping drive this next leg of growth, I guess, is what I'm asking?

Yes, that's a great question, Tim. We've previously discussed how we revamped our incentive compensation plan a couple of years ago for about 100 key personnel in the company, linking a significant part of their annual bonuses to DRS/AMS revenue growth. We've now extended this plan to over 1,000 employees. Essentially, everyone eligible for a management incentive bonus is now connected to AMS/DRS growth rates, which we have prioritized over total revenue growth to ensure clarity of focus. This top-level change is supporting our global leadership team in effectively executing our desired strategy, which emphasizes increased AMS/DRS, a more flexible network, and leveraging technology to maximize capacity. Moreover, it's crucial that our sales teams share similar incentives. Historically, local sales incentive plans were decided at the local level, but we've begun to align these plans globally to better emphasize AMS/DRS and assist our customers as they transition from traditional cash-in-transit services, whether in banking or retail, to a managed services model. This year, we're taking further steps to enhance the specificity of our sales teams' global incentive plans with a focus on these two areas. In fact, some local leadership is taking this to an even greater extent, deciding to either reduce or eliminate commissions for sales staff not selling DRS/AMS who might still be involved with traditional services, aiming to guide our teams in driving customer value. Lastly, regarding channels, this marks a significant shift for Brink's. Traditionally, we sold directly through our own sales force to financial institutions and retailers. We are now beginning to evolve by collaborating with channel partners. This shift is occurring globally, whether through commissioned sales forces, value-added resellers, or other partners. We even have white label agreements with certain banks to market DRS to their retail clients. Our goal is to enhance the cash ecosystem's efficiency and ensure inclusivity within the broader payments ecosystem, whether related to DRS or the cash distribution and deposit networks.

Thank you for the detailed explanation regarding the incentives and channels that are contributing to the impressive growth. I also wanted to inquire about the margins in North America, which are remarkable this quarter with an increase of over 300 basis points. I'm interested in understanding the long-term potential for margins in that segment. I notice other segments have different characteristics, like Latin America and BGS, and I'm unsure if they are comparable. How would you present the margin potential of the North American business to investors? While incremental margins are a common perspective for analysts, given the ongoing changes in your business, I'm uncertain if that is the best approach. I'd appreciate your insight on framing the margins from a medium- or long-term perspective in North America, especially considering the current positive momentum.

That's a great question, Tim. Looking at the margin progression for Q3, we recorded 370 basis points, compared to 330 basis points last year. We did have a loss during this period last year, which makes for an easier comparison, but it's still impressive margin expansion performance, especially over the years. If you examine the chart, you'll notice a steady upward trend in the business, driven by three key factors. First, our improvement in the AMS/DRS mix has significantly contributed, providing accretive margins that help us streamline the business and increase its dynamism. Second, we have adopted a more disciplined pricing strategy, something we may not have done historically. Since the pandemic, we've focused on ensuring our pricing covers costs while enhancing our margins and delivering value to customers. Lastly, our operational execution has improved, thanks in part to our North America team, which has worked diligently to enhance service quality, timeliness, and safety. Improvements in safety are a strong indicator of our operational effectiveness. We believe this offers a solid foundation for future growth. Looking ahead, we expect our incremental margins to be between 20% and 30%. We don't see any artificial limits on our growth potential. There's still ample opportunity. I referred to the 20% EBITDA margins as a mid-term goal, which serves as a checkpoint for our business trajectory. Importantly, we have a competitive gap in North America with other traditional players, reinforcing my confidence that we can continue to improve and run the business more effectively, especially with our new business model, which is more flexible, dynamic, and value-driven for customers.

Our next question comes from Tobey Sommer of Truist.

I wanted to ask about the cash conversion. What are your current thoughts on midterm goals for free cash conversion from EBITDA? And as part of your answer, could you describe the DSO improvement drivers, maybe mix shift versus other more discrete actions that you've undertaken?

Yes, Tobey, it's Kurt. I'll address this question. Firstly, we are optimistic about our conversion framework, which stands at 40% to 45%, both for the short term and looking ahead; we believe this is a positive indicator. We've been diligently focused on generating cash throughout the year. Regarding your question about Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), there are a few key points to consider. Firstly, the business mix is important; our AMS and DRS segments are subscription-based models that have favorable DSO profiles, and their growth positively impacts our DSO. We reported an improvement of 5 days in this area. Secondly, as Mark mentioned, we now have a broad incentive structure across our leadership, emphasizing free cash flow generation, which has created a global focus on this objective. Thirdly, we are working harder on collections compared to previous practices, which is also contributing to our efforts. Additionally, while you didn't ask about accounts payable and Days Payable Outstanding (DPO), we also saw an improvement of 4 days at the end of the third quarter in that respect. Finally, concerning capital expenditures, AMS and DRS are less capital-intensive businesses; we've been reducing our capital footprint, for instance by taking trucks out, as Mark has noted before. All these factors are effectively working towards enhancing our free cash flow generation.

Geographic growth was pretty well balanced organically in the quarter on a year-over-year basis. What geos may have higher or lower trajectories going forward? And maybe if you could provide a driver for why there could be a more wider dispersion going forward, if you think that's the case?

Yes, I don't think that's the case, Tobey. I believe we have opportunities to maintain this pace across all regions. There will be fluctuations, especially in the Rest of the World segment, given that half of it is BGS. The volatility in that area can significantly impact results, which is why we saw a 9% increase in Q1 followed by mid-single-digit growth in Q2 and Q3. However, we still see strong potential across all regions, particularly in the unvended retail markets and the existing customer base in banks. As we assess the outlook for AMS and bank outsourcing, there is no region that is over-saturated or has matured significantly. We anticipate good opportunities for organic growth in the coming years as these markets evolve. Looking ahead to next year, we haven't observed any customer or market signals that would lead us to adjust our organic growth outlook. We plan to share our guidance after Q4, but we believe we can sustain mid-single-digit organic growth with mid to high teens AMS/DRS and a 30 to 50 basis points increase in EBITDA margin. Considering this year’s performance and the foreign exchange impact, we experienced significant challenges in the first half and slight improvements in the second half. We expect a similar pattern in 2021, with potential benefits early in the year and limited gains later if we consider today's FX rates. Overall, we feel optimistic about next year with healthy pipelines in AMS/DRS. As we enhance our execution, shift incentives, and expand our product offerings, our ability to engage with more channel partners and customers will support this growth opportunity. Nothing suggests a slowdown in our organic potential. Kurt, do you have any thoughts about 2026 or any other topics?

Yes, just to clarify on the foreign exchange, if you look at the current rates, you would anticipate a slight benefit in 2026 for the year, with more impact expected in the first half. Additionally, as we consider the opportunities, we are focused on improving efficiency in our SG&A expenses. We are actively working on this and making progress. As Mark mentioned, we are operating our business differently than before, and we believe we will continue to identify efficiencies that will contribute to our margin growth.

Yes, I think this is part of globalizing the business, Tobey. Our strategy is multipronged and focuses on growth and customer loyalty, innovation in technology and customer offerings, operational excellence, and our people. Additionally, how we manage our day-to-day operations in the back-office is crucial. Functions like finance, IT, HR, sourcing, procurement, and real estate have historically operated independently around the world for 165 years. We are evolving that approach and have a strategy to standardize more processes. We believe there is still significant potential for increasing productivity in the back-office fixed costs, and we plan to pursue this more vigorously in 2026 and beyond. While we are experiencing good organic growth and a favorable product mix, we are confident that we have more opportunities to enhance productivity within the fixed base of our business.

I'd like to ask one more question. Just because I'm not inquiring about AMS deals doesn't mean I don't appreciate the growth. What is your perspective on bank consolidation from a net standpoint? I'm sure there are advantages and disadvantages on both sides, and approvals from regulators are happening at the quickest pace since 1990, averaging four months, with some deals starting to be announced. If this trend continues for a few years, how should investors perceive this and its potential impact on your business?

Yes, that's a great question, Tobey. We are closely monitoring the situation as recent announcements have indeed affected our customer base. We're assessing the potential impacts and see our AMS solutions presenting an opportunity due to our unique offering in the marketplace, which is not commoditized and provides a distinct value proposition. For consolidators, we enable them to generate real cost synergies while streamlining their networks, branch footprints, and infrastructure, helping them reduce costs and improve productivity. In previous years, we've noted more opportunities for AMS outside North America, where banking footprints were already consolidated, and enhancing ATM network productivity was a priority for increasing profit margins. In the U.S., however, the focus has been more on bank consolidation, along with addressing redundant public company and compliance costs. Recently, we've been seeing more frequent AMS discussions in North America, which may or may not relate to the current consolidation trends, but we anticipate this will result in more opportunities for us. Short-term, there may be some traditional business consolidations where a bank acquisition could lead to the loss of locations, such as two branches operating on the same corner. However, we are strategically thinking through these changes, ensuring we partner with the right consolidators and continue to support those being consolidated to maintain strong customer relationships during mergers. Overall, we believe this situation likely presents a positive outlook based on the AMS opportunity for the long term. Great. Well, listen, thanks for joining us, everyone. We appreciate your continued interest in Brink's, and we look forward to speaking with you all soon, whether on the phone or on the road. Have a great day.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.