Citigroup Inc Q4 FY2021 Earnings Call

Hello, and welcome to Citi's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Review with the Chief Executive Officer, Jane Fraser; and Chief Financial Officer, Mark Mason. Today's call will be hosted by Jen Landis, Head of Citi Investor Relations. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today.

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and thank you all for joining us. I'd like to remind you that today's presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com, may contain forward-looking statements, which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including those described in our SEC filings. With that, I'll turn it over to Jane.

Thanks, Jen, and happy New Year, everyone. I am delighted to join you again today. Well, we've been busy, and we have a lot to talk about today. I'm going to start with an update on our strategy refresh. Then I'll share my thoughts on our fourth quarter and end on all the progress that we've made against our major priorities. As you saw earlier this week, we announced that we intend to focus our franchise in Mexico solely on our institutional and wealth management businesses, and therefore, to exit the consumer small business and middle-market banking operations there. This was not a decision we took lightly. We took a clinical look at our franchise in Mexico, and we drew the hard conclusion that the non-institutional businesses do not fit our new strategic direction. Now to be clear, these are terrific, they're scaled, high returning franchises. But our strategic goal is to invest in businesses that are fully aligned with our core strengths and to simplify our firm. As we did the work, it was also clear that there continues to be a tremendous opportunity for our Institutional Clients Group in Mexico. Citi is Mexico's leading institutional bank. We've served corporate clients and investors there for almost a century, and that isn't going to change. Mexico has a bright future, and we are committed to playing an important role in building it. We expect Mexico will be a major recipient of global investment and trade flows in the years ahead. Therefore, we plan to maintain a significant, locally licensed bank there and invest to capture growth in a core and high returning hub of our institutional network. This won't be a simple transaction. We have spent the last several months working through how to get the best results for our shareholders and be true to our local stakeholders. We will begin the separation process immediately and expect to begin the sales process in the spring. And of course, there will be an opportunity to return excess capital from the transaction to our shareholders. This is our final decision in terms of market exits as we conclude our strategy refresh and approach Investor Day. I'm really looking forward to talking to you about the future Citi on March 2. Today, we are going to talk you through the changes we're making to align our organization and financial reporting with our refreshed strategy. Now these changes will also allow us to reduce structural complexity and its associated costs. Amongst other things, this is going to help make Citi easier for our investors to understand. You'll be able to see and assess more simply the core businesses that make up Citi going forward. First, we're creating a new personal banking and wealth management segment, which will be run by Anand Selva. This will consist of two distinct reporting units: Our U.S. personal banking businesses; and our global wealth management business, which is going to include the private bank. Second, on the institutional side of the house, which will continue to be run by Paco Ybarra, we will begin reporting under three units: services, banking and markets. Services will include Treasury and Trade Solutions and security services, and this reflects just how important we believe these businesses are to Citi's future. Finally, we will create a new segment, legacy franchises, which will house all the businesses we intend to exit. We're going to begin reporting our financials along these segments and reporting units no later than the second quarter, to ensure you have the information you need to measure our progress and hold us accountable, and we really look forward to sharing our strategy and plans for how these businesses will work together and deliver for our shareholders on Investor Day in March. Now turning to earnings. We had a decent end to 2021. As you can see on Slide 2, we closed out the quarter with net income of $3.2 billion and EPS of $1.46. That includes a $1.2 billion hit to EBIT, primarily related to the wind down of our Korean consumer business. Excluding those impacts, our net income would be $4.2 billion, with an EPS of $1.99. Our net income for the full year of $22 billion reflects an improved credit environment and we had a resulting RoTCE of 13.4%. In ICG, we had another strong quarter in investment banking and gained share for the year in M&A. And we continue to make significant investments in talent, and we see a very solid pipeline of transactions ahead of us. Now while we could have had a better balanced performance in fixed income in the quarter, equities finished 2021 up 25% for the year. The rebound TTS is seeing in trade flows and cash volumes was not quite enough to offset the current rate environment, but it bodes well for 2022. Indeed, we think the cycle has turned for this business and it is poised to benefit as monetary policy changes and growth accelerates. You've heard Mark and I talk about improving the revenue mix of our institutional businesses as a priority, and it's yielding results with another quarter of strong momentum in fee growth across products. Parts of our consumer businesses are still weathering COVID's disruptive impact on customer behavior. In the U.S., strong purchase sales continued to be offset by elevated payment rates, but we did see loans increase in branded cards this quarter. Deposits and AUM continued to grow, with digital deposits up nearly 20% for the full year. For the year, we returned nearly $12 billion in capital to our shareholders and we grew our tangible book value per share by 7% to $79.16. We ended the year with a CET1 ratio of 12.2% on a standardized basis as we built the capital needed to resolve the impact of the regulatory changes. Now keep in mind, that regulatory change didn't take effect until January 1. While this caused us to temporarily pause our stock buyback, we will resume buybacks this quarter now that the impact has been addressed. Finally, as Slide 3 shows, we are executing and delivering against our priorities: The strategy refresh, the transformation and our culture, and we are doing so with a real sense of urgency. First, on the strategy. We are laser-focused on swiftly and successfully implementing the strategic decisions we made over the past year to improve returns to our investors. We have signed deals in 6 of the Asia consumer markets including the agreement to sell 4 markets that we announced yesterday. This means that within 8 months of making the decision to exit these 13 businesses, we have a clear path in a majority of them, and we are well into the process in the remaining markets. In Korea, we were decisive in determining the best path for our shareholders was to wind down our consumer operation, and we're able to get most of that charge behind us this quarter. Another area where we haven't wasted any time is wealth management, where we grew our ranks by a net 800 advisers relationship managers and others over the course of the year. They helped us add about 750 private bank clients and 45,000 Citi gold clients in 2021. In what we know as U.S. Personal Banking, we've seen good uptake of new products such as the custom cash card, and we've been building out digital platforms to capture opportunities in installment lending. And in addition to the progress we're seeing in TTS, we've also been building out our security services platform. We couldn't be more pleased to deepen our relationship with BlackRock by becoming the largest custodian for their iShares ETFs. Second priority, we continue to execute on our transformation agenda in order to demonstrably strengthen our risk and controls as well as modernize our bank for a digital world. This work, it's foundational for everything we want to achieve. We are enhancing our operating model to improve long-term efficiency and our service to clients. As it relates to the consent orders, we are deep into execution mode. We continue to be in constructive dialogue with our regulators as we get their feedback and incorporate it into our ongoing execution and project plans. Third, and relatedly, we are building a culture that expects excellence and demands accountability. We're driving this effort in a variety of ways, including a more robust performance management process at this past year-end, shifting the mix of compensation to better align with shareholders' interest and various culture-changing initiatives. A culture of excellence also means creating a record of achievement that our people can be proud of. One area that our people take particular pride in is our ESG efforts. Later this month, we will share with you our plan to reach net zero by 2050, a commitment I made on my first day as CEO 10 months ago. And of course, we are going to do all this with a singular focus on our clients as we help them navigate COVID. We certainly hope Omicron is the final disruptive phase of this pandemic, but there are also quite a few other issues to navigate, whether macroeconomic, such as inflation, or geopolitical such as tensions with Russia. We have seen the resilience and the importance of Citi as we supported our clients through unchartered waters, and we will be with them in the next chapter as well. So now I'd like to turn it over to Mark, and then we would be delighted to take your questions.

Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. We have a lot to cover on today's call. I'm going to start by walking you through the financial reporting changes we plan on making in more detail. Then I'm going to walk you through the 2021 financial impact from the 13 Asia market exits as well as Mexico, and changes we are making to our financial disclosure. And then finally, the quarterly results. As part of our strategy refresh, we've started to make changes to better align with our vision and strategy. We refreshed our earnings presentation and included additional metrics and key drivers for the ICG businesses. Our goal is to simplify our financial reporting to make it much easier for our investors to understand our performance and our key assets. Turning to Slide 4, we lay out the details of the changes in the financial reporting that Jane mentioned. First, we intend to move the consumer, small business and middle market banking operations of Citi Banamex, and the 13 Asia consumer exits under a new segment called Legacy Franchises. This will allow you to better understand the financials of the remaining company that will exist post these exits. We've experienced managing businesses being divested and are putting a dedicated team in place to manage the new segment. This will free up the management teams of the go-forward businesses to fully focus on executing on the firm's strategy. Second, we are reorganizing our reporting units to help you better understand the financials of our businesses and the value they bring to Citi. Starting with ICG, we will move TTS and security services to a reporting unit called Services. These businesses are foundational for us as they have a unique position given their global footprint and full suite product offering. Markets will, therefore, no longer include security services and instead will only include equity and fixed income markets. And lastly on ICG, banking will only include advisory, equity underwriting, debt underwriting and corporate lending. The Global Consumer Bank, GCB, will be renamed Personal Banking and Wealth Management, PBWM. The Private Bank will move from ICG to PBWM. As a reminder, we announced in January of last year that we created a single wealth management organization under Citi Global Wealth, now called Global Wealth Management, which is a distinct reporting unit. The creation of this unit unifies the wealth management teams, creating a single, integrated platform serving clients across the wealth continuum from the affluent segment to the ultra-high net worth clients. North America Consumer will be renamed to U.S. Personal Banking and will remain a reporting unit under PBWM. This unit will continue to include branded cards, retail services and retail banking. We plan on providing the financials for the new reporting units on this page under the ICG and PBWM segments, starting no later than the second quarter earnings. And our Investor Day will be a natural opportunity to bring together all the work over the past year and lay out our medium-term vision and strategy for the firm. Slide 5 shows the contribution of the Citi Banamex businesses that we plan to exit as well as the contribution from the 13 Asia markets. Hopefully, this gives you a better sense of the financial results for the combined exits. And in the appendix on Page 18, we have more detail on the 13 Asia exit markets and the deals that we've announced to date. Turning to Mexico. As Jane mentioned, we remain committed to Mexico and will continue to serve our institutional and private bank clients there. That said, upon very careful consideration and analysis, we decided that we are no longer the optimal owner for the businesses that we're exiting. Mexico consumer and small business banking operations included in the intended exit represents the entirety of the Latin America Global Consumer Banking unit and the Mexico middle market banking business that is currently included in Citi's Institutional Clients Group segment. On the left side of the page, we show key figures for 2020 and 2021 for the businesses we intend to exit in Mexico. In 2021, the businesses contributed $4.7 billion of revenue and $1.1 billion of net income. The businesses in total had $20 billion of loans, $31 billion of deposits and approximately $4 billion of allocated TCE. Again, we do not yet have a transaction and are pursuing multiple divestiture paths, so the ultimate financial impact of a transaction is not yet known. We will keep you updated on our progress as we run a thoughtful process that takes into consideration what is in the best interest of our shareholders as well as our clients and employees in Mexico. In addition to the opportunity to return additional capital to shareholders, these divestitures will also allow us to simplify the management and organizational structure across the firm. Now turning to Slide 6. As we've gone through our strategy refresh and simplification, we've been reviewing our disclosure in terminology and have decided that now is the right time to more closely align with our peers. First, revenue that we previously referred to as net interest revenue will now be called net interest income, and revenue that we previously referred to as non-NIR will now be called noninterest revenue. Second, as you can see on the page, we've revised how we account for insurance paid on our deposits, including FDIC and foreign deposit insurance. We have previously accounted for the deposit insurance as a control revenue and net interest income. However, beginning this quarter, we will report it as an expense and remove it from net interest income. And as a reminder, this change is earnings neutral. We've made this change to make it easier for you to compare us to our peers, and we have revised prior years to reflect the same reporting treatment to assist with comparability for 2019 to 2021, and the rest of the presentation will also reflect these 2 changes. On Slide 7, we show financial results for the full firm. As Jane mentioned earlier, in the fourth quarter, we reported net income of $3.2 billion and an EPS of $1.46, an RoTCE of 7.4% on $17 billion of revenues. Embedded in these results are costs of approximately $1.2 billion primarily related to the voluntary retirement program we offered in conjunction with the wind down of our Korea consumer business, as well as some additional Asia exit impacts which I will collectively refer to as the Asia divestiture impacts going forward. Excluding these impacts, EPS would have been $1.99, with an RoTCE of approximately 10%. In the quarter, total revenues increased by 1% from last year as strength in noninterest revenue driven by ICG, specifically TTS, Security Services and Investment Banking, was mostly offset by lower net interest income across GCB and ICG. Our results include expenses of $13.5 billion, an increase of 18% versus the prior year. Excluding the Asia divestiture cost, expenses would have increased by 8%. Increased expenses were largely driven by investments in our transformation, business-led investments and higher revenue-related expenses, partially offset by productivity savings. Cost of credit was a net benefit in the quarter, primarily driven by an ACL release of approximately $1.4 billion related to the improved macro backdrop and continued improvement in portfolio quality. Now turning to the full year. Our revenues were down 5%, driven by the normalization in markets as well as elevated payment rates in consumer, somewhat offset by strong noninterest revenue growth across ICG and in particular, in investment banking, TTS and security services. Our full year expenses were up 9%, but excluding Asia divestiture costs, our expenses were up 6%. Also for the full year, we generated RoTCE of 13% and 14% excluding Asia-related divestiture impacts. As a reminder, we had a benefit of close to $9 billion in ACL releases for the full year. On Slide 8, we show an expense walk for the full year with the key underlying drivers. In 2021, excluding Asia divestiture impacts, expenses were up 6%, in line with previous guidance. Looking forward, we recognize that we have a lot more work to do. The divestitures provide an opportunity to simplify our management and organizational structure. We're also taking a hard look at our structural expenses, with an eye towards operating as efficiently and soundly as possible and self-funding investments. We have a lot more to say about this at our Investor Day. On Slide 9, we show net interest income, deposits and loans. In the fourth quarter, net interest income increased by approximately $130 million on a sequential basis, driven by North America Consumer. Sequentially, net interest margin remained relatively stable. On a year-over-year basis, net interest income was flat. Also on a year-over-year basis, average deposits grew in the quarter as we continue to deepen relationships with our institutional clients as well as our consumer clients, particularly in North America. Average loans were roughly flat year-over-year as growth in the ICG was offset by a decline in GCB. As the probability of higher rates has increased over the last few quarters, let me make a few comments regarding the potential impact from higher rates. In our 10-Q, we disclosed interest rate sensitivity assuming a parallel shift and a runoff balance sheet. This is different from our peers' methodology, which tends to assume a static balance sheet. Assuming a static balance sheet and a 100 basis point parallel shift, we would expect Citi's total net interest income across all currencies to increase by over 3x more than what was disclosed in our third quarter 10-Q, or roughly $2.5 billion to $3 billion of net interest income. On Slide 10, we show our summary balance sheet and key capital and liquidity metrics. We maintain a very strong balance sheet. Of our $2.3 trillion balance sheet, about 25% or $530 billion consists of HQLA, and we maintained total liquidity resources of approximately $960 billion. And we continue to optimize our balance sheet, deploying excess liquidity into securities as we took advantage of opportunities in the market, as well as reducing our short-term and long-term debt sequentially and year-over-year. On the loan side, corporate loans represent approximately 60% of total loans with loans to corporates outside of the U.S., representing approximately 30% of total loans. And as we've mentioned in the past, about 80% of our total corporate loans are investment grade. From a capital perspective, we ended the year with a CET1 capital ratio of approximately 12.2%, as we prepared to adopt SACR on January 1. Having adopted SACR and maintained our capital ratio target, we are resuming buybacks this quarter to similar levels to what you saw in the second and third quarter of 2021. As we look into the remainder of the year, there are a number of variables with respect to capital. These include regulatory headwinds that are impacting us, along with the rest of the industry, such as elevated GSIB surcharges, as well as the timing and impact from the divestitures of the 13 Asia exits and Mexico. In light of this, you should expect us to manage to a CET1 ratio closer to 12% by the end of the year due to the expected GSIB surcharge increase at the beginning of 2023. That said, we remain focused on all aspects of capital with the goal of maintaining a CET1 ratio of 11.5%. And as you know, under the SCB framework, we can assess on a quarter-by-quarter basis the right level of buybacks, and we will continue to do so throughout the year with the goal of returning excess capital to shareholders. On Slide 11, we show the results for our Institutional Clients Group for the fourth quarter. Revenues increased 4% year-over-year, driven by investment banking, private bank and security services fees, partially offset by a decline in markets. Expenses increased 10% year-over-year, driven by transformation, business-led investments and revenue-related expenses, partially offset by productivity savings. Cost of credit was a net benefit of approximately $300 million as net credit losses were more than offset by an ACL release. And we continue to see strong credit performance, with net credit losses declining on a year-over-year basis and nonaccrual loans down sequentially and year-over-year. This resulted in net income of $2.5 billion, down approximately 22% from the prior year, largely driven by the higher expenses and a smaller ACL release versus the prior year. And ICG delivered a 10.8% RoTCE for the quarter. We also saw a 5% growth in both loans and deposits on a year-over-year basis as we continue to see good momentum and deepening of existing client relationships and new client acquisitions. As for the full year, ICG delivered approximately $16 billion of net income on $44 billion of revenue with an RoTCE of roughly 17%. On Slide 12, we show revenue performance by business and key drivers for our ICG business for the fourth quarter. Treasury and Trade Solution revenues were slightly down versus the prior year, driven by continued headwinds from rates offset by 18% growth in fees, in fact our highest fee quarter ever. And revenue did increase sequentially, driven by both net interest income and strong fee growth. We continue to see strong underlying drivers in TTS on a year-over-year basis that indicate continued strong client activity. Since this is the first time we are showing key metrics that demonstrate this momentum, I want to briefly walk you through each one and what it represents. U.S. dollar clearing transactions are up 4%, which reflect the clearing and settlement activity of commercial and treasury flows for financial institutions. Cross-border flows were up 15%. These flows represent our global payment flows, where we provide cross-border solutions for our clients that are fully integrated across our TTS and Markets business and over 145 currencies. And importantly, this client activity drives recurring fee revenues and generate significant operating deposits. Commercial card volumes, which reflect travel, purchase and virtual card activity across all clients are up 48%. Again, these metrics are indicators of client activity and fees and, on a combined basis, drive approximately 50% of total TTS fee revenue. Investment banking revenues were up 43% year-over-year, driven by growth across products, including record advisory performance, the best advisory quarter we've had in over a decade. Private Bank revenues were up 6% year-over-year as we continue to see strong momentum in new client acquisitions. Overall markets revenues were down 17% versus last year. And while there were different dynamics that played through fixed income and equity markets performance, the performance is against a very strong quarter last year. Fixed Income Markets revenues were down 20% year-over-year. While we had solid growth in FX and commodities, this was more than offset by a decline in rates and spread products. Equity Markets revenues were down 3% year-over-year as continued growth in prime finance balances and structured activities was offset by a decline in cash. Security Services revenues grew 5% year-over-year as fees grew 11%, driven by higher settlement volumes and higher assets under custody, partially offset by interest rate headwinds. Now turning to Slide 13. Here we show the results for our Global Consumer Banking business for the fourth quarter in constant dollars. Revenues declined 6% year-over-year, driven by lower revenues across regions. Expenses were up 34% year-over-year, driven by the Asia divestiture costs. Excluding these costs, expenses were up 9%, driven by transformation and business-led investments, partially offset by productivity savings. Cost of credit was a $105 million benefit this quarter as an ACL release more than offset net credit losses. The NCL rate for the quarter was 1.2%, a decline of 61 basis points year-over-year and 20 basis points sequentially. We released over $900 million of ACL this quarter related to continued improvement in our economic outlook and portfolio quality, partially offset by volume growth. This resulted in a net income decline of 42% and an RoTCE of 8%. Excluding the Asia divestitures impacts, net income would have grown 44% and resulted in an RoTCE of 20%. As for the full year, GCB delivered $6 billion of net income on $27 billion of revenues, with an RoTCE of 17% and 22% excluding Asia divestiture impacts. On Slide 14, we show GCB revenues by product as well as key business drivers and metrics for the fourth quarter. Branded cards revenues declined 3% year-over-year on higher payment rates and portfolio mix. We're seeing encouraging underlying drivers with new accounts up 43%, card sales volumes up 24% and average loans up 3%. In fact, the fourth quarter acquisitions exceeded the same quarter in 2019 by 2%, the first quarter to do so since the onset of the pandemic. Retail Services revenues declined 10% year-over-year, driven by a 2% decline in net interest income due to elevated payment rates as well as by higher partner payments driven by improved credit performance. But despite this, we are seeing positive underlying drivers with account acquisitions up 6% and spend up 16% on a year-over-year basis. While we're encouraged by these underlying drivers in both cards businesses, payment rates do remain stubbornly high, impacting our loan growth and revenue growth in both cards businesses. Retail banking revenues declined 6% year-over-year driven by lower deposit spreads as well as lower mortgage revenue. However, underlying drivers remained strong, with deposits up 13%, Citigold households up 9% and assets under management up 8% year-over-year as we continue to execute on our North America retail strategy with a focus on our global wealth unit. Asia revenues declined 7% year-over-year largely driven by rate headwinds and higher payment rates. Performance in the wealth hubs exceeded that of the overall region with deposit growth of 12%, AUM growth of 13% and 16% growth in Citigold and CPC clients. Latin America revenues declined 3% year-over-year, mainly due to lower loan volumes in both retail and cards. On Slide 15, we show results for Corporate/Other for the fourth quarter. Revenues increased year-over-year, largely driven by higher net revenue from the investment portfolio. Expenses were down year-over-year, largely due to the wind down of legacy assets. Cost of credit was benign. At this point, we typically give a full year outlook. However, since we have our Investor Day coming up on March 2, we plan on bringing everything together at that point to talk about 2022 in the full context of our strategy and medium-term performance expectations. As part of our strategy refresh, our goal is to be as simple and transparent as possible. And I hope you like the new earnings presentation, and we will continue to evolve it going forward. And with that, Jane and I would be happy to take your questions.

Good morning. Mark, thanks for all the detail there, and Jane, for the strategic update. Mark, I wanted to ask if you could just go over the restatement of the net interest income sensitivity. Just want to make sure we caught that. What's the difference that's driving the new presentation there? And just what are the key drivers for your net interest income outlook this year? You might not have to give a number, but kind of when you think about trading and then core NII card growth, maybe some of the thoughts there. Thanks.

Sure. Thank you, and good morning, John. On Slide 9, I covered that. Historically, we have examined our disclosure using a run-off balance sheet, which accounts for deposits and loans as they mature. Some others take a different approach and use a static balance sheet. We conducted an analysis assuming a static balance sheet with a 100 basis point parallel shift in a rising rate environment across all currencies. Given our mix of U.S. dollars and foreign currencies, this analysis indicates that a static balance sheet, with constant deposit and loan levels, could yield 3 times more than what we disclosed in the third quarter. This translates to $2.5 billion to $3 billion of net interest income. Thus, maintaining the current deposit levels enables us to generate more net interest income, which significantly impacts the range I provided. In terms of...

Got it.

Great. In terms of the forward look, I'm not going to give you guidance, as you mentioned. But I think there are a couple of things that are important to keep in mind that we're looking at for 2022. One is the drivers that we mentioned earlier. So a lot of the underlying drivers in our franchise look very strong and are driving healthy fee revenue growth. And I would expect with an outlook for positive GDP that, that's going to continue to play to our advantage in 2022. The second thing I'd point out is the assumptions around interest rate hikes in 2022. I have many as three or four depending on the economists' view that you listen to. And that obviously is going to play to our favor as well when you think about the number of accrual businesses that we have, whether it's our TTS franchise, or our private bank, et cetera, et cetera. So those are important factors that impact the top line, and that we expect to help contribute to some growth coming out of 2022. I mentioned the loan growth on the branded cards portfolio. For cards, it's really going to be about payment rates. I mean, how they taper off – hopefully, taper off. They've been stubbornly high through all of 2021. So hopefully, we start to see some of that taper off and we get a little bit of growth in average interest-earning balances in the back half of the year, but those are important factors that need to play through into 2022.

Okay. Great. And then just as a follow-up, as you're managing capital, you mentioned you'll return to some level of buybacks this quarter, and you've got a lot of capital that you expect to free up in transactions that haven't happened yet. So I guess, how are you kind of thinking about that, that future capital is something that you'll deploy as you get it? It's part of your long-term thinking, but you're not planning on using that throughout this year, I assume?

Yes. We evaluate capital planning in relation to our strategy and our capacity to deploy that capital, aiming to return as much excess capital as possible to our shareholders. As we consider the ongoing divestitures that will release capital, we will incorporate that into our capital plan for the year and the quarter. We plan to return that to shareholders wherever feasible. Several deals are set to close in 2022, which will be included in our plan, and we look forward to executing those actions later in the year.

Hi. For you, Jane, and I'm going to re-queue after my two questions, I got so many. But thank you for the new presentation. But the biggest question that I and, I think, many investors have, is when all is said and done, who is Citigroup? What's the most simple statement you can give on who and what Citigroup represents?

All right. I love that question. So I would say that our vision for Citi is to be the preeminent bank for institutions with cross-border needs. We'll be a leader in wealth, a major player in consumer payments and lending in the home market. And that is future Citi and our vision for it. It's simplified, more focused. It's much better connected. It's certainly simpler to operate, characterized by culture of excellence and accountability. And I think as I hope we've shown today, one that should be easier for everybody to understand and fully aligned with our shareholders' interest.

Are you freeing up about $11 billion of capital now? Mark, you often mention your plans to invest in the business, support growth, and buy back stock. Given the current low stock price, which is one of the lowest compared to the financial index, wouldn't it make sense to prioritize buybacks? What else can you communicate to demonstrate that shareholders are a priority? Jane, you've made significant progress in the environmental and social aspects, but the governance part concerning shareholders seems to have been neglected for a long time. What more might you do or say to acknowledge shareholders and address their desire for a better stock price?

Our shareholders are extremely important to us. We recognize the need to align the bank more closely with shareholder interests, and we are actively pursuing that. Here are four examples of our commitment. First, our strategy will generate excess capital, which we intend to return to shareholders. Given the current trading price of our stock, this makes buybacks particularly appealing. Second, we are making structural and strategic decisions to position the bank optimally for enhancing shareholder value. We are executing these plans with a sense of urgency and are determined to elevate our valuation significantly. Third, we are reforming various aspects of our financial reporting to make it more understandable for our shareholders, and we will maintain a high level of transparency to allow you to track our progress effectively. The framework that Mark outlined will facilitate this process. Finally, we are implementing changes to our compensation structure, with more of our senior business leaders participating in performance share units this year. We have transitioned to 100% deferred stock in the regions where it is permissible, and we are placing greater emphasis on returns when evaluating performance. We are taking numerous actions because our shareholders are important to us, and we aim to elevate our valuation to fully reflect its potential.

I'm going to turn on just for the sake of your answer. I personally love the management teams are buried in the stock that they asked investors to invest in. To be a leader in all those areas that you want to be in, question, you spend a lot to keep up. And so my question is, how do you balance doing all that and both in profitability gap with spending enough and feeding your franchises to the leaders and yet to be extensive front, it seems like so hard of just what the question.

I have to apologize. You broke up through much of that question. Would you mind just repeating the tail end of it?

So a couple of questions. One, just thinking through the walk from where you are today in CET1 until end of the year when you mentioned you'd be ending the year at 12%. You have some businesses that are exiting, which should reduce RWAs, I would think. But then you've got the buybacks as well coming through. And at the same time, I would expect that you'd probably want to grow your RWAs? I know your RWAs were down 5% Q2 and maybe that was part of the reason why the SACR was a little light. So could you help me understand just how we should think about that trajectory and the drivers of that CET1 change, because it will have some impact on how we're thinking about the revenue growth in the markets business?

Yes, that’s a good question. We are examining how to continue investing in the franchise, especially in areas of growth, while also focusing on returning value to shareholders through buybacks. Our CET1 ratio is finishing the year at around 12.2%. As you know, SACR began on January 1. Therefore, we are starting the year approximately at our target. Throughout the year, we will accommodate business growth where necessary and seek offsets for both SACR and low-performing assets, which we aim to divest to generate income and capital. Looking at our plan, we will need to increase our CET1 ratio back to around 12% towards the end of 2022 to manage the GCIB challenges we expect at the beginning of 2023 unless we receive some relief. Over the course of the year, we will free up capital through RWA management, return capital to shareholders, and increase earnings. Ultimately, we need to aim to finish the year on the higher end, close to 12%.

Do you have an estimate of how much benefit GCIB or SCB should experience from the divestitures you are undertaking? When I saw the news from Mexico this week, I thought that might be one of the reasons behind your decision to exit the Mexico consumer business, as it could potentially simplify your operations, which would likely benefit CB.

It's not a major factor in the decision, as Jane has outlined. However, it does relate to the points you've brought up. From a GCIB perspective, there are approximately $31 billion in deposits linked to our Mexico consumer business, which would contribute around 10 basis points to the GCIB score. The total for the divestitures we've identified is about $85 billion in deposits, so there would be some benefit from that. While I don't have specific numbers to share right now, mainly because the Fed needs to conduct their analysis, you're correct that from a CCAR standpoint, the stress capital buffer will affect PPNR and, more critically, stress losses as well. This impact and the deposit effect won't register until we finalize these transactions. Nonetheless, it is a consideration in our long-term capital planning, and I will discuss it further at Investor Day on March 2.

Jane, Mark, a quick one firstly. Now that you're exiting Mexico, Singapore and Hong Kong were not part of the exits when you announced the exit from the 13 markets in the consumer business. Are you going to stay on with the consumer business in those markets, or meaning a traditional consumer business as you've had for years? Or is that going to change?

No, we find the franchises we have in Singapore and Hong Kong, just given the nature of them, are really naturally tied to the wealth franchise that we are building and investing in there of our existing very strong platform, as you say. So we expect to continue to provide the range of different services and capabilities that we have because they are so complementary and help support our wealth business in 2 of the most major wealth hubs in the world.

Okay, great. And a follow-up question, if I may have. The NII change, Mark, that you made, what deposit beta are you assuming there? And how much of the change is coming from U.S. net interest income versus the rest of the currencies?

Yes. We haven't disclosed our deposit betas. However, as you might expect, the betas are generally higher on the institutional side compared to the retail side. I apologize, could you please remind me of the second part of your question?

The second part was how much of the change in net interest income from the interest rate sensitivity change, Mark, that you're making? How much is it U.S. net interest income versus the rest of the currencies?

The increase is approximately skewed towards the international side. So out of a $3 billion increase, I would estimate about two-thirds is international and one-third is domestic.

Yes, I have a question about the regulatory and political risks associated with share buybacks. I bring this up because during the Powell renomination hearings earlier this week, Sherrod Brown strongly criticized buybacks in the banking sector in the last two minutes of the testimony. Additionally, last year, President Biden delivered two speeches opposing buybacks. I'm trying to comprehend if there are any other discussions taking place aside from moral persuasion to discourage buybacks, acknowledging that a transaction tax may not prevent buybacks from occurring.

We're going to do the right thing for our shareholders. And right now, particularly given where the stock is trading, buybacks are a very, very important and probably top of the stack for us action that we take. So no, we're very clear in terms of the importance of giving our shareholders back our excess capital.

No, I understand that you want to. I'm just trying to understand what the risk to your desires are from the regulatory or political side?

I don't believe there is one. We're extremely well capitalized. I think we've heard it consistently from Washington, the confidence in the capitalization of the banks both coming into and coming out of the pandemic, and we're not overly concerned on that front.

We'll obviously adhere to regulatory guidelines as they exist or however they evolve, but that's exactly right.

Can you guys share with us, when you think about the strategy refresh that is underway, are we 75% complete, 80% complete? Mark, you alluded to maybe some of the markets businesses that may not have the return as you want. It could be some area. But where are you there? And by the Investor Day, can we assume that will be completed?

In terms of the time line for this one, this particular exercise is drawing to a close in terms of what I call the big step back as a new CEO. So we said this is the last major structural decision that we're taking in Mexico, and we're now focused on pulling together everything from Investor Day. And that's where the new reporting structure, I think, that we've announced today, is also a very important foundation for that. So I'm confident that we've made the right big structural decisions and that we're looking forward to Investor Day, laying out the vision, the strategies and the plan for going forward.

And let me be clear, Gerard, just in case I wasn't. I'm not suggesting we're exiting parts of our Markets business. That is not what I'm suggesting at all. What I'm suggesting is that as we would always do, we're constantly looking for opportunities to optimize the way we use our balance sheet, capital, RWA, et cetera, and where we identify the need to rid ourselves of low-returning and assets that we have, we do that. And so with rule changes like SACR and the like, either pricing will adjust or we'll have to take a hard look at some of those assets to see if it still makes sense. And that's more of what I meant than ever suggesting we were exiting part of the Markets business.

Just quick couple of follow-ups. Mark, on the capital return, I just want to make sure we hear you correctly. When we think about the $3 billion piece you're going to get back to in 1Q, moving forward, is there more upside risk to that $3 billion? Or could that be actually lower? I just want to make sure we have that right in terms of expectations.

Yes. I'm not giving expectations for the quarter-by-quarter capital buyback decisions, in part because, as I mentioned, with the new SCB rule, we're able to look at it on a quarterly basis. So I'm not giving guidance beyond that. We'll talk more about the capital plan on March 2 broadly.

And just, I guess, going back, Jane, on U.S., I think the question is, is there something more meaningful that we should expect at the Investor Day? And it's fine if you want to hold it till then. Because if I recall correctly, you were a partner with Google. That didn't play out. The big question that investors have is, is there a better definition to the U.S. retail franchise? And I'm just wondering, will we get that at the March Investor Day or there's nothing radical that you have in store, at least in the near term as far as U.S. retail is concerned?

You'll be certainly hearing directly from Anand, who is responsible for that business on Investor Day. And he'll lay out all of our U.S. personal banking strategy of what we're looking at, both from our top 2 cards franchise and what we're doing in personal lending, as well as what we're doing in wealth. And then obviously, the retail bank and the supporting role it is playing for those 2 core drivers of growth for us in the States. So yes.

Mark, maybe on just the expenses, I appreciate all the moving parts with the divestitures and you're not going to give us a full year expense guidance number. But can you help on the jumping off point in the first quarter we had? Compensation was up about $1 billion quarter-over-quarter. How much of that was just sort of the comp changes? Or is that a good run rate to think about? So if you could just help us, just the jumping off point for first quarter, it would be helpful.

I'm unable to provide more specific guidance on that. However, I can point out that there are several factors from 2021 that will significantly influence 2022. Firstly, we will experience the full-year effects of our hiring from last year in 2022. Additionally, the distribution of our transformation spending, which includes new hires, third-party expenditures, and technology investments, will gradually change, favoring hires and technology over third-party spending. This shift will begin to manifest in 2022. Regarding the comparisons for the fourth quarter, the performance throughout the year correlates with revenues. We anticipate some growth driven by the earlier mentioned factors, which will also reflect in the compensation over 2022. However, I prefer not to dive into specific details now, as we will provide a clearer overview in early March.

I wanted to follow up on your earlier comment that the sale of Mexico wouldn't be an easy transaction. Could you elaborate on that? Additionally, you mentioned that capital allocated to the business is going to be freed up. Do you have any initial thoughts on whether this transaction will result in a gain or loss when considering the overall capital impact?

Why don't I kick that off and Mark jump in. I just said it won't be a simple transaction because we separate the bank into the institutional business from the businesses that we're exiting, and that's something that we kicked off yesterday, that process. And then we'll be looking to go to the market in the spring and be active with buyers, potential buyers in a few months' time. So it's more just the complexity of separating the bank. We've got good plans behind this. And as I said in my remarks, these are terrific, these are at scale. These are great franchises. And there was obviously a lot of speculation in the press, which really is too early to comment on. But we do think this is a jewel for someone. It's just not for us.

Yes, I agree. And I think it's premature to speculate on the structure of the deal and things of that sort. You're right, we do have about $4 billion of TCE allocated to the business. The other layer of complexity is around the CTA, and you've heard us spend some time on that when we talked about the Australia sale. And I introduced it as a complexity because there's an accounting treatment associated with the CTA that happens at signing that is separate from the capital implication that happens at closing. So with a CTA, the capital impact flows through AOCI, but it's neutral once the deal is closed. And Mexico, the consumer business would have a CTA of a little bit less than $3 billion or so. And so that's another factor that's involved with the transaction.

I wanted to start by expressing my appreciation for the new presentation and additional details provided, which are really helpful. Mark, I have a question that is technically one question but has three parts. I would like to discuss the comments you made about NII sensitivity and the reporting differences compared to peers. You mentioned that there is an over threefold increase in NII with a static balance sheet, yet many investors still have concerns about your rate sensitivity profile, especially given the modest NII growth we observed in the last cycle. First, considering your higher institutional deposit gearing, shouldn't we expect your deposit runoff to be greater than that of your peers? Second, does the NII guidance take into account liability sensitivity in the markets business, and can you help quantify that potential drag? Lastly, are there any unique factors you could mention that might lead to a better NII outcome or a greater rate benefit compared to what we experienced in the last cycle?

Yes, absolutely. We provided the sensitivity because we believe comparability is crucial. You can see that the magnitude of the difference is quite significant. There will still be a difference between us and our peers, but that gap narrows on a comparable basis. We have a bias toward institutional clients, which typically carry a higher beta, but we also have a focus on international currencies, where we achieve good spreads. Regarding market impact, it can arise in various ways. Rate movements and other uncertainties and volatility in the market can affect broader market revenues, which we might observe depending on how investors adjust their portfolios. As for the final part of your question, I don't have anything additional to mention. With the excess liquidity currently in the market, we have been utilizing it for investments. We have increased our investment portfolio by about $70 billion and extended the duration to approximately 2.85. We still have considerable reserves to deploy in response to client demand or in a rising rate environment, which we anticipate.

I'm sorry, I thought I've taken myself out of the queue. My questions have been answered and you all must be getting tired. So I'm done.

I have one more question. What's the hardest part of the cultural change?

It's likely that we've been dismantling some of the barriers within the organization. The principles we established, which you mentioned, are a crucial element of this. Last year, we introduced new leadership principles focused on enhancing connections across the firm to fully harness our synergies. By moving away from some outdated practices, I believe the new structure is certainly aiding our efforts, along with the various initiatives we are implementing.

And how long do you think that will take? Because you're breaking down a culture that's been ingrained for quite some time.

Yes, I am really pleased with our progress. One of my first actions upon taking over was to outline our cultural priorities, and we have an excellent team that has been dedicated to this effort for a year. I believe we are making significant strides. We want our culture to focus on accountability, excellence, and urgency, and we are making headway in that direction, though it will require some additional time.

Thank you all for joining today's call. Please feel free to reach out to IR with any follow-up questions. Have a great day. Thank you.

This concludes Citi's fourth quarter earnings call. You may now disconnect.