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Earnings call · FY2024 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +72 · low hedging
Forward guidance
5 guided metrics
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Stated verbally and extracted from the transcript.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
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Adjusted EBITDA
this year
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$1.08B – $1.12B | Non-GAAP | |
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Capital expenditures
this year
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$475M – $500M | — | |
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Depreciation and amortization
2025
|
$450M | — | |
|
Annualized cash tax payments
2025
|
$105M – $115M | — | |
|
Annualized cash interest payments
2025
|
$305M – $315M | — |
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Thank you for standing by. My name is Novi, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Six Flags Entertainment Corporation 2024 fourth quarter earnings call. All lines have been placed on me to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you'd like to withdraw your question, press star one again. We also ask that you please limit your questions to one question, one follow-up. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Six Flags Management. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Novi, and good morning, everyone. My name is Michael Russell, Corporate Director of Investor Relations for Six Flags. Welcome to today's earnings call to review our 2024 fourth quarter financial results for Six Flags Entertainment Corporation. Earlier this morning, we distributed via wire service our earnings press release, a copy of which is also available under the news tab of our Investor Relations website at investors.sixflags.com. Before we begin, I need to remind you that comments made during this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. These statements may involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those described in such statements. For a more detailed discussion of these risks, you may refer to the company's filings with the SEC. In compliance with the SEC's Regulation FD, this webcast is being made available to the media and general public as well as analysts and investors because the webcast is open to all constituents and prior notification has been widely and unselectively disseminated all content on this call will be considered fully disclosed on the call with me this morning our six flags chief executive officer Richard Zimmerman and chief financial officer Brian wither up with that I'll turn the call over to Richard for some opening remarks Richard thank you Michael good morning and thanks everyone for joining us today as we close out 2024 I want to take a moment to recognize the incredible work of our
team this past year I couldn't be more pleased with what we have accomplished particularly since the completion of the merger and I've never been more excited about what this company can achieve for our guests associates and shareholders moving forward looking back at 2024 we wrapped up the year by delivering a record October performance and outstanding fourth quarter results all while capturing close to half of our target merger related cost synergies through strong revenue growth and disciplined cost management initiatives we boosted modified EBITDA margins in the fourth quarter by 650 basis points another meaningful step in returning operating margins back to historical levels and by taking decisive actions within days of finalizing the merger we We immediately drove guest satisfaction scores higher, a critically important first step in improving our cost-value proposition and driving demand levels higher. Heading into the 2025 season, early trends indicate consumer demand remains strong for high-quality entertainment experiences. Although it represents a limited sample size, attendance in the first two months of the year is up 2% and sales of season pass units are up 3%. both positive indicators for the season ahead. Given our strong fourth quarter and the solid start to 2025, at this time, we believe the general economic environment for our consumers remains healthy, with park-goers showing a willingness to spend their entertainment dollars on the high-quality and differentiated experience that we offer. With that positive outlook as a backdrop and our integration efforts progressing well, we are targeting adjusted EBITDA of $1.08 billion to $1.12 billion this year, representing an initial step function of growth for our expanded portfolio. Before I ask Brian to provide a closer look at our financial results, let me shift gears for a moment to address the recent wildfires in the LA area. Our immediate concern at the time was for the safety and well-being of our guests, associates, and neighboring communities. We are proud to have supported local first responders who use Magic Mountain's parking areas for staging crews and emergency equipment during critical containment efforts. We are fortunate that neither Knott's Berry, we will continue to monitor the situation closely, assessing any potential impact on our business as we get closer to the core operating season. In the meantime, we remain focused on supporting our associates and local communities through the recovery. With that, I'll turn it over to Brian.
Thank you, Richard. Good morning, and thanks to everyone for joining us today. I'll begin with a review of our fourth quarter update on select balance sheet items, as well as early performance indicators for the season ahead. Let me start with operating days. On a consolidated basis, operating days in the fourth quarter totaled 878 days compared with 377 days during the fourth quarter last year. This increase reflects the addition of 538 days from operations at Legacy Six Flags Parts during the fourth quarter. Partially offset by 37 fewer operating days at Legacy Cedar Fair Park, this decrease in Legacy Cedar Fair operating days was primarily due to the fiscal calendarship, as the 2024 fourth quarter began on September 30th, and the fourth quarter of 2023 began on September 25th. Moving on to our financial performance, we generated net revenues of $687 million on attendance of 10.7 million visits. These fourth quarter results included $324 million in net revenues and attendance of 5 million visits from Legacy Six Flags operations. Fourth quarter revenues from Legacy Cedar Fair operations decreased by $8 million compared to primarily due to 115,000 fewer visits during the period. The decrease in attendance was the direct result of the fiscal calendar shift and the lower number of operating days in the period. On a comparable fiscal calendar basis, Legacy Cedar Fair fourth quarter attendance would have been up 461,000 visits, reflecting strong demand for our, along with the outstanding October attendance numbers we produced at our Legacy Six Flags parks, these results support our belief that demand for the compelling entertainment we offer remains strong. Looking at fourth quarter guest spending trends for a moment, in-park per capita spending in the period was $61.60, representing an increase to the in-park per cap reported by Legacy Cedar Fair in the fourth quarter last year. Approximately 80 percent of the increases related to the impact of operations with the balance attributable to higher in-park guest spending on food and beverage and merchandise at the Legacy Cedar Fair parks. This was reflected by a 3% increase in the average transactions per guest during the quarter, a key performance metric and a core tenant of our long-term growth thesis. It's worth noting that this momentum of positive guest spending trends carried over from the third quarter, underscoring the enduring appeal of our immersive entertainment office. The average transactions per guest at the Legacy Cedar Fair parks increased 2% with total transactions of more than $40 million, up $1.8 million transactions compared to 2023. Meanwhile, out-of-park revenues for the fourth quarter totaled $48 million, which included $14 million in revenues from Legacy Six Flags operations, the direct result of the fiscal calendar shift. Moving on to the cost front, operating costs and expenses in the quarter totaled $523 million, which included $233 million of operating costs and expenses from Legacy Six Flags operations. Fourth quarter costs were comprised of $376 million of operating expenses, $89 million of SG&A expense, and $58 million of cost of goods sold. Fourth quarter operating expenses included $180 million related to operations at Legacy Six Flags parks by a $13 million decrease in operating expenses at Legacy Cedar Fair parks. The decrease in legacy Cedar Fair operating expenses was largely related to the fiscal. Meanwhile, fourth quarter SG&A expenses included $27 million from legacy Six Flags operations, offset by a $4 million decrease in Cedar Fair operations. This decrease reflects $11 million less in merger and integration related costs, offset by slightly higher advertising spend. The $58 million of costs of goods sold in the fourth quarter included 26 million dollars related to legacy Six Flags operations. As a percentage of food, merchandise, and games revenue, costs of goods sold in the quarter increased 170 basis points. The majority of the increase related to the inclusion of turning to adjusted EBITDA and modified EBITDA margin, two metrics which management believes are meaningful measures of part-level operating results. Compared to the fourth quarter last year, adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of 2024 increased $120 million to $209 million, while modified EBITDA's 150 basis points to 30.4%. The increase in adjusted EBITDA reflected $113 million from Legacy Six Flags operations and a $7 million increase from Legacy Cedar Fair operations, including the impact of the fiscal calendar shift. The 650 basis point increase in modified EBITDA margin included a 410 basis point increase related to the Legacy Six Flags operations and a 240 basis point increase from Legacy Cedar Fair operations. As we've noted on prior earnings calls, in addition to improving demand and guest spending, we remain focused on driving operating efficiencies and improving margins. We are pleased to have realized approximately $50 million in gross cost synergies in 2024. Of the total synergies achieved, $34 million was the result of labor and other operating efficiencies, $8 million came through savings from economies, and another $8 million resulted from eliminating duplicative overhead costs. We delivered these synergies while at the same time improving guest satisfaction scores and continuing to drive higher attendance levels. This has resulted in improvement in both cost per guest and EBITDA per guest. two key performance metrics that our teams closely monitor. During the fourth quarter, adjusted EBITDA per guest from legacy Cedar Fair operations improved by 10 percent, reflecting the ongoing successful execution of our cost savings initiatives. In 2025, we are confident in our ability to deliver another 70 million dollars, anticipating that approximately 20 million will be driven by further streamlining of our org structure 30 million will be realized through rationalizing our vendor base and continuing to leverage our scales and negotiate better terms and 20 million will come from a combination of further elimination of redundant processes the integration of overlapping technology systems and the right sizing of our park infrastructures we will keep the market updated on our progress toward delivering these cost savings throughout the year and continue to look for opportunities to drive additional cost efficiencies as we implement our... Now turning to the company's balance sheet for a moment. We ended the year with $83 million of cash and cash equivalents on hand and approximately $5 billion of gross debt, including $315 million in borrowings on our revolving credit. Our outstanding debt, approximately three quarters, is fixed through long-term notes. And outside of $200 million in senior notes, which mature in July of this year, we have no significant maturities before 2027. Including cash on hand and available revolver capacity, liquidity at the end of the year totaled $578 million, providing us with ample financial flexibility. Deferred revenues at the end of the year totaled $308 million, compared with $192 million of deferred revenues at the end of 2023. The $117 million increase includes $123 million of deferred revenues at the Legacy Six Flags parks offset by a decrease of six million dollars at the legacy cedar fair parks the decrease in deferred revenues at the legacy cedar fair parks reflects the annual amortization of certain long term deferred revenue items the elimination of transaction fees in california as a result of changes in state regulations and lastly a slight decrease in sales of season passes and related products driven by two parks the modest decline in season pass sales is primarily a timing issue that can be recovered during the critical spring sales cycle, which historically represents more than 50% of full programs. Along those lines, as Richard mentioned, we are encouraged by the acceleration of season pass sales to start the year. The 3% lift in unit sales over the first two months of the year has been primarily driven by increased sales at our Legacy Six Flags parks, validating that our initiatives are working and setting the stage for driving higher attendance levels at those. Starting our CapEx programs, during During the fourth quarter, we spent $93 million on capital expenditures, including $53 million at the Legacy Cedar Fair parks and $40 million at the Legacy Six Flags parks. Capital expenditures at the Legacy Cedar Fair parks to $220 million and full-year capex spend to $215 million at the Legacy Six Flags parks, $115 million of which was invested by Legacy Six Flags before the merger closed. For calendar year 2025, we expect cash spend on capital expenditures will total $475 to $500 million, including some level of investment on deferred items at the Legacy Six Flag Sparks. We will continue to look for ways to most efficiently manage our capital investments as we focus on maximizing the company's free cash flow. For additional modeling purposes, in 2025, we are planning 5,852 total operating days, similar to the 5,851 operating days across the combined portfolios in 2024. For 2025, we are projecting full-year depreciation and amortization of approximately $450 million, which reflects the impact of fair value adjustments to the Legacy Six Flags assets as a result of the merger. And lastly, from a cash flow perspective, we are projecting annualized cash interest payments in 2025 of $305 to $315 million, and after some additional tax planning efforts, annualized cash $105 to $115 million. We will continue to manage cash flow tightly, and consistent with the objectives within our long-term strategic plan, we expect to accelerate the growth of free cash flow as EBITDA gross and as our CapEx needs moderate. Before I turn the call back to Richard, let me provide some additional color around our new 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance. While we are confident we have the initiatives and capital program in place to achieve our revenue, growth, and cost savings targets, we are keeping an eye on two developing macro factors. First, although the recent wildfires in California have subsided, we are closely monitoring any residual impact these events may have on our southern california parks knott's berry farm and magic mountain are two of our highest ebitda properties and any material headwinds on season pass sales or general demand could have an impact on our overall performance in 2020 is the impact foreign currency exchange rates could have on the reported results from our non-domestic on the current outlook around exchange rates we've we've assumed approximately seven to eight million dollars of incremental fx pressure on EBITDA in 2025 compared to 2024. However, any significant variability from our assumption?
Before we open up the call for questions, I want to take a moment to provide our perspective on what lies ahead, including the incredible opportunity we have in 2025 and beyond. It has been my long-held belief that sustainable growth in this industry requires two fundamental factors. Discipline, thoughtful leadership with an unwavering guest-centric focus reinvestment of resources. To that end, our strategic plan is designed to drive higher attendance, improve guest spending, and optimize operating efficiencies, all while ensuring we deliver world-class entertainment experiences. The potential for attendance growth at our parks is significant and represents the biggest opportunity for sustainable cash flow growth and shareholder value creation. The investments that make up our 2025 capital program are the first of a multi-year plan designed to enhance the guest experience and increase demand, improving market penetration rates throughout our portfolio. In addition to projects and initiatives intended to increase guest spending, eliminate consumer pain points, and improve back-of-house efficiencies, we are investing in exciting new demand-driving attractions at some of our largest and most profitable parks. All told, we are introducing major new attractions at 11 of our 14 largest properties. For example, Cedar Point is adding to its world-class collection of thrill rides with the addition of a record-breaking tilt coaster called Siren's Curse and the highly anticipated return of Top Thrill 2, two rides every coaster enthusiast needs to experience. Six Flags Great America introduces Wrath of Rocks world's steepest dive coaster and the first major new coaster added at the park in more than six years. Canada's Wonderland is adding Alpen, which will be located in the park's iconic mountain structure. Six Flags New England will unleash the region's first multi-launch straddle coaster called Quantum Accelerator. Adding to its collection of thrill rides, King's Dominion is introducing Raptera, the world's tallest and longest launched wing coaster. Six Flags Great Adventure will open Flash Vertical Velocity, a launched Super Boomerang Coaster which will greatly enhance the park's front gate area. Six Flags Over Georgia will debut Gold Russia, a unique free-spinning, high-speed, high-elevation gondola ride that will be the first of several new rides we plan to add to the park as we look to tap the full potential of the very attractive Atlanta market. And lastly, to help expand our appeal to young families and set the stage for our grand transformational makeovers of the Hurricane Harbor water parks at both Six Flags Magic Mountain and Six Flags Over Texas, while also expanding and enhancing the family offerings in Camp Snoopy at Carowinds and the DC Universe at Six Flags Fiesta Texas. It's a strong capital lineup, and I hope you can tell why we are so excited about the season ahead. I also want to provide an update on our ongoing portfolio optimization efforts. As we noted on our last earnings call we initiated a comprehensive review of our properties including excess and undeveloped land with the goal of optimizing our asset base narrowing management's focus and reducing risk we've completed our initial review having identified properties that are less strategic and critical to our long-term growth objectives property that properties that we would consider divesting under the right circumstances these include some of the smaller non-core parks as well as excess undeveloped land that isn't critical to future expansion plans as an example we are currently in the process of marketing undeveloped land adjacent to our park in richmond virginia and i'm pleased to say that these efforts have produced significant interest although there is still much work to be done we are optimistic that our ongoing discussions will result in a transaction within the next 12 to 18 months regarding certain smaller non-core properties we are continuing to evaluate options and over time we will consider transactions that enhance shareholder value in the meantime we are excited the prospects of operating all 42 of our parks this season we will continue to pursue initiatives to further enhance the performance of these valuable and unique assets that will not only contribute to our financial results but also support the local communities in which they operate consistent with those efforts we are taking decisive steps to unlock the full potential of our combined portfolio and increase shareholder value. The positive impact of our initiatives is already evident in better guest satisfaction scores, higher attendance levels, and improving operating margins, all of which reinforce our confidence in delivering on our ultimate goal of driving long-term growth and free cash flow. With momentum at our backs, we have a tremendous opportunity to showcase the resiliency and strength of our business model in 2025 as we head into the peak operating season we do so with confidence and excitement for what lies ahead we have the right strategies and team in place and we see a clear path to success we are focused on building on the momentum we've established as well as delivering an outstanding 2025 season for our guests associates and shareholders alike We look forward to sharing more details on our outlook for the season ahead and our long-term strategy at our upcoming Investor Day on May 20th at Cedar Point. This event will provide attendees with an in-depth look at how our strategic initiatives are transforming our operations and enhancing our performance across the combined portfolio. Our Investor Relations Department will be providing additional details about the event in the coming weeks. Before we open up the call for questions, I want to take a moment to express my sincere gratitude to our teams across all 42 parks, as well as our resort properties, for their unwavering dedication and hard work during this pivotal period of transition. Their efforts, local first response wildfires, seamlessly integrating our IT systems, or delivering exceptional service to millions of guests have been nothing short of extraordinary. Their passion and commitment are the driving forces of our success. Novi, that concludes our prepared remarks. Please open up the line for questions.
At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We also ask that you please limit your questions to one question, one follow-up. We will pause for just a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Steve Wozinski with Stiefel. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hey, guys. Good morning. So, Richard or Brian, you know, as we think about guidance for this year, just wondering if you could help us, you know, from a high-level perspective, kind of, you know, help us think about what's embedded or what are some of the assumptions that are embedded to get to your guidance range, meaning, you know, how you're thinking about attendance, you know, how you're thinking about per caps. You already gave us some, you know, some of the metrics around the cost side of things. So I think we're good there. And then just, you know, just want to be sure that the 55 million attendance targets you laid out for 2027 is still in play at this point.
Steve, good morning. Good question. Let me jump in here and then Brian can comment on some of the specifics. You know, as I think about this year and understanding our need and what we've articulated, driving top-line revenue growth while being as efficient as possible. I step back to my preparative marks and think about the capital lineup. I think the capital lineup gives us an opportunity to drive market penetration, which we're focused on. As that shows up during the second and third quarters, our biggest quarters in the back half of the year, I think about getting people to come to the parks more often, and I think about them staying longer everything we're doing is trying to tap into making the parks more comfortably crowded we think more comfortably crowded leads to you know higher revenue levels good flow through to evita and considerable free cash flow growth brian yeah just uh to add on to richard's comments steve uh you know any uh year we go in and build one of these plans I would tell you sort of our high-level assumptions are that weather
patterns are generally going to be normal we don't you know build in expectations for you know extreme events it doesn't mean every day is going to be 82 and sunny either but that weather patterns are gonna be normal now I think that a more diversified portfolio as we saw over the second half of the year helps mitigate some of the risk that does come with the macro effects of weather we've also assumed that there's no meaningful downturn in a broader economic environment or consumer behavior. And as we said on the call, while there are some expected pressures from a decline in FX rates, what we've assumed to this point is that those don't decline significantly from where they currently stand. And then as it relates to your comment about inflation or cost pressures, we've built a plan that generally offsets a normal level of inflation. So I think the range that we've provided allows for some fluctuation in each one of those things, both up and down, to get to the high end or the low end of the range.
Okay. So that was going to be kind of my second question. Let me ask it a little bit differently and see if you give any different color. I'm guessing not. So it sounds like, okay, to get to the midpoint of that range, weather is essentially normal. There's not a material impact from California. FX kind of stays neutral. Am I kind of thinking about that right? So if we got to the low end of that range, weather probably kicks in. Maybe there's some pressure from California, FX, and then the high end spend patterns are probably a little bit better than what you're expecting. I'm kind of talking out loud here, but is that kind of the way to think about how you get from the low end of the high end?
Yeah, I think it's generally accurate. I I think consistent with Richard said that, I mean, the real upside and opportunity of the merger has always been the ability to leverage step functions in attendance. And as Richard noted, growing attendance not only is beneficial from a volume perspective, but it's highly beneficial from a guest spending perspective. Because as we've talked about and articulated in the past, larger days, comfortably crowded parks lead to longer length of stays, higher per caps, a higher level of demand for premium experiences like front of line passes, cabanas, VIP lounges, et cetera. So I think that the way you described it, Steve, is pretty accurate, right? The upper end is going to require more growth out of it. Okay. That's great, Culler.
Thanks, guys. Appreciate it, and best of luck. Thanks, Steve.
Your next question comes from the line of James Hardiman with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. So, Richard, I wanted to touch on some of the discussion that you brought up in terms of the portfolio optimization efforts. Maybe walk us through how you're going to be thinking about, you know, as you put it, value creation when it comes to maybe monetizing some of the smaller parks. You know, what's the framework? Does the fact that leverage is higher than normal and cash flows are pressured sort of change your willingness to part ways with some of those parks? And I just look back at the deal that you made for Great America, however long ago that was. Basically, you had a high real estate value and a low EBITDA contribution from that park, which made it sort of a gold mine in a lot of ways to monetize.
Is that sort of how you think about the puts and takes in terms of individual parks and sort of your willingness to maybe monetize? thanks you know a lot of things portfolio optimization becomes a strategic decision we're trying to accomplish a lot of things over the next few years james so as we think about it you know it starts with understanding that these are unique and very valuable assets they are irreplaceable most parks don't trade very often um you know as we saw with great america there was great real estate value now more front-end areas that are more populated but sometimes there's unique circumstances like our park near Richmond, Virginia, where we've got excess land that is available that's not generating cash flow or EBITDA for us, that we can find a way to generate a little bit of cash flow. Not unusual. We did that all the way back in 2008 as well on the Legacy Cedar side. We sold some 80 acres north of our Toronto park. So as we think through the framework we want to make sure we understand what role each part plays in the broader portfolio as we said part of this is potentially reducing the complexity of operations but we like the geographic diversification so as we think this we're going to keep all the strategic and financial goals in mind and make sure that whatever decisions we make going forward we get value for anything that that potentially we may optimize but that also that it accomplishes what we need to do going forward uh and that we get to the the have laid anything you want to ask
no i mean i would just uh um maybe uh emphasize again that you know the the focus right of optimizing the portfolio or that exercise james you know it was really about narrowing management's focus um reducing risk and and operate optimizing that at the the overall asset base as we've talked about in the past um relative to just the legacy cedar side of the portfolio and it's true on our on on the the six flag side of the portfolio um 90 plus percent of of the evita has generated us the 31 locations of the 40. uh you know i think as as we think about you know as richard said tapping into the growth potential you know narrowing our focus to where the opportunities are in the return important and again part of that is also the step you saw us take in terms of uh the notice to acquire the outside non-controlling interest in the Atlanta park, Six Flags Over Georgia, as that's a very attractive market in our long-term growth.
And then there's been a lot of discussion on the $20 million of cost synergies. Maybe give us an update of the, you know, once upon a time at least, it was $80 million of revenue synergies that you'd identified. What, if anything, has been realized so far on that front? Has that number moved around at all? You know, how we should be thinking about timing and then maybe, you know, more specifically to call out one potential synergy opportunity, the early indicators of how popular, you know.
Yeah, as it relates, James, to the revenue synergies, I guess two points I'd make there. First is you're not closing the merger until mid 2024, you know, sort of, you know, put us maybe a year behind on the revenue synergy side, because so much of the opportunity there, you know, ties back to some system integrations, getting on common ticketing platforms, etc. You know, unlike cost synergies where we could sort of pick up midstream, at least a good chunk of them, it was a little more challenging on the revenue. So we still are optimistic and confident in those numbers. But what I would say is, I tie it back to an earlier comment, you know, the real opportunity and focus of the merger is the attendance opportunities represents much more upside than that $80 million revenue synergy number that was discussed in the S4. um probably half or maybe a little bit more than half of that was tied as you noted to you know the the potential for the all-season park add-on pass and i would say you know this is the first year right that that that's out there for the combined portfolio early adoption has been encouraging but it's still very early um and so there's a lot more work to be done there So we're going to be focused on initiatives like that over the next year or two, harmonizing systems and trying to extract the full value of something like that. But I think really what the team is most focused on, again, is that broader attendance opportunity and what that can mean for the combined portfolio. Got it.
And just, if I just may, just one clarification as I think about whether it's that, you know, $80 million in synergies or the all-park pass, what, if anything, from either of those is built into the guidance that you've laid out today for 2025?
Anything related to the all-park pass is the expectation for 2025, given that we're still in the process of harmonizing ticketing systems, is very modest. More of the growth is coming from the other initiatives that we began to seed even in the second half of 2024 and the capital program that, you know, Richard walked through some of the highlights of that. That's more the driver behind the attendance growth that we're expecting in 2025.
Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Richard. Thanks, James.
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Boss with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. So, Richard, on the top line, could you elaborate on the cadence of attendance that you saw in the fourth quarter versus October? And just relative to 3% attendance in 2024 as a whole, just help us to think about growth drivers in 25, any puts and takes between volume and per caps.
Yeah. When I think about the fourth quarter, Again, we got great traction, a little bit choppier on the weather front as we got into November and December, but as Brian said, as we pointed out, the benefit of our now combined portfolios were geographically diversified, so weather has less of an impact on the overall portfolio, more concentrated in different areas. We saw, as we've always seen, good response to our Holiday in the Park events or our Winterfest events, depending on which market you're in. It's a multi-generation appeal, brings a different kind of audience, also helps us support our season pass sales as we go through the winter period. What I'm most encouraged about fourth quarter transition in 25 is the 2% up in attendance early in the first couple of months, you know, as we look at the momentum and the 3% in season pass sales, particularly as I watch them day by day, which we do. we're starting to see exactly what we'd want to see to see that the momentum is continuing as we go into 25 so as we get into the springtime start opening up our parks I think we've got lots of stories to tell in each of our respective markets things that'll drive the attendance which again we'll keep reiterating we think is the mark you know capturing market potential driving attendance levels higher that's the real benefit of this merger and where we think the most opportunity is but as we get into the springtime I think there's a lot of interest in our parks opening up again a lot of intrigue with what potentially may be new and and we've got a lot of things we can share with the market as we get into that so and I would always say this about our business model the the higher the attendance that may pressure the the admission per cap a little bit because when we are 60 55 to 60% season pass that's how the math works, but the higher the attendance levels, the better the revenue number and the better the EBITDA. The more people we can put on days we're already open, those are higher margin guests, and that's what really drives our performance.
Great. And then, Brian, on the cost side, where do you see us today on the multi-year OPEX cost curve as we're thinking about legacy six flags? Just thinking operating expense growth relative to revenues multi-year.
Yeah, so when we look at the portfolio, we've been very clear coming into this past year, 2024, before the merger closed. On the Cedar Fair side, we had gotten to the point in our playbook where we had reestablished demand. We had gotten nearly back to pre-pandemic attendance levels, and our focus had turned towards optimizing that cost structure. We took big steps forward, as we mentioned, $50 million of cost synergies. In 2024, that was probably general split about two-thirds at our legacy cedar parks, maybe a third of those synergies at the Six Flags parks. And so there's more work to be done on that front. You can't get it all in one fell swoop, and nor do you want to from a guest service perspective. And so it fits into our target of delivering $70 million of gross cost synergies as we get into 2025. Again, a lot of that, as we talked about, is going to come from the field and optimizing cost structures, leveraging scale. As we think about the Six Flags parks in our portfolio, they've been more efficiently run there. So it will probably, again, skew a little bit more heavily on the cedar parks. but feel pretty confident with the plan that we have in place, and any pressure on it at this point, Matt, in our view, is going to be more volume driven, and that'll be a good problem to have, right? If we have some more variable costs in the system because attendance growth is even better than planned, or is it the high end of what we're targeting, that's a type A problem that we'll manage.
Great.
Best of luck.
Thanks, Matt.
Your next question comes from the line of Thomas Yev with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Thanks. I wanted to get your updated thoughts on the attendance opportunity as it relates to the operating calendar piece of it. You talked about comfortably crowded, but I think previously you also mentioned opportunities to enhance the season pass holder value and add days at the margin that would be EBITDA positive. I think your guide is for a similar number of days versus last year. So just maybe dimensionalizing your puts and takes around the calendar would be helpful.
Yeah. In broad strokes, you'll see a few more days being added to the second and the third quarters and a few less days in the fourth quarter. So we're shifting the days, taking out some lower margin days in the fourth quarter and establishing a little bit longer hours, but also adding some calendar days in the meat of the summer where some of the parks were closed early on.
Okay, so the balance of that suggests that on a net basis, you're still getting higher value days on a per-day basis, it seems.
Correct.
Okay, understood. And then maybe just an update on season pass pricing. I mean, you rolled out, I think, a different, more consistent method on pricing for the Legacy Six Flags footprint. Is the view that on balance, you still want to end up higher on blended pricing for season pass units sold, or is there maybe a focus on just growing the base earlier on?
That's our goal in every year. We try and drive the higher volumes, take price in the markets where we can. We always acknowledge that the capital lineups gives us pricing power. but one of the things that as you evaluate this year over year there was uh if you look at the prior year there was not the same approach on the legacy six side so there'd be a higher price for a period of time a lower price for period we're rolling over all those things and really retraining the markets in terms of what the program will be but again even as we look at the most recent trends up three percent in the first two months really encouraged by the the the sales that are going on broadly across the six flags marketplaces and those markets but as we think about the combined portfolio um i think season pass continues to be the driver of of our success there's so many reasons particularly in an environment where the consumer has more choices so many reasons to buy the pass, and we just, as I said earlier, we just want to make sure that we understand people, that there's lots of reasons to come out early, come out often, and stay longer.
Appreciate the color. Thank you. Thanks, Thomas. Thanks, Thomas.
Your next question comes from the line of Chris Varonco with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Hey, Chris. Hey, morning. So this would be a little bit of a follow-up to the prior question but but do you think it's possible to you know to kind of assume or or uh you know speculate that six flags pass holders might be legacy six flags pass holders might just be delaying their their buying decision they know that there's been a you know a change in ownership of the parks and they maybe want to see what happens when these things open in in april and and i don't know if you can remind us of the kind of mix of you know what you get after the parks open in terms of past sales, but just is it reasonable to assume that you might get some uplift from the legacy Six Flags visitors later in the season this year?
Well, I think maybe just leveling up for a second, Chris, to your point, you know, in terms of timing, we always like to get off to a fast start, right? Fall, winter, sales, it's great to get ahead of the game. And, you know, as we said, we're encouraged by the early momentum we're seeing on the sixth side. And it can differ park-to-park, but that fall-winter sales period, you know, can often be as much as 25% or 30% of the full program. You know, that said, the core of the sales or the largest portion of the sales happens during the critical spring, you know, for some parks as much as 60%, but it's usually somewhere between about 50% to 60% of full program sales. So, you know, so that's most critical. I think in any consumer decision, what we've seen historically is that guests are looking for proof points. I always see a little bit more momentum in season pass sales. The reason that spring is such a driver is we're a little heavier in market with advertising. The amusement parks are coming back online. We're a little bit more front of mind. And so, you know, we do believe that the changes that we made in the second half of 2024, you know, within the parks, operating more rides, staying open a little bit longer, you know, some of the cleanup work that we were doing, painting of attractions, et cetera, all of those things start to become proof points for the consumer that, you know, things are going to be different and there's a reason to buy and come. Now, the key for our teams are not only selling more passes, but then also converting that into more visits per pass. You know, we've talked about the delta between average visitation between the two sides of the combined portfolio and the opportunity presented there. You know, that will ultimately tie it back to Thomas's question about pricing. You know, our ability, you know, we're really excited about the long-term opportunities to grow season pass pricing at our parks, particularly at the Six Flags parks, because there is a big delta. We've talked about it publicly. Average season pass price at a Six Flags park in our portfolio is in the low to mid-70s. At a Cedar Fair park in the portfolio, it's $110 million to $115 million. And a big driver behind that is the delta in the average visitation. So this isn't a one-year fix or a one-year growth story. This is just year one of the growth story.
Okay. I appreciate all that commentary. Just as a follow-up, this is kind of a CapEx question, and you've provided the guidance for 25 now. Where do you think you are in terms of, as the parks begin to open in April, where do you think you are on the lakes on kind of the catch-up maintenance, some of the maintenance CapEx that wasn't done over the years versus some of the more structural changes you're trying to make in terms of food and beverage outlets? and things like that. If you could just maybe break those buckets down a little bit for this year.
You know, Chris, one of the things that we've seen when we have parks that have performed well over the arc of their development is that consistent investment matters as much as what you invest in. So as we think about 25, 26, 27, it's that ability to show the guests there's something new, come on out, we're making changes, we're certainly redesigning the landscape, we put things in we take things out we focus on making sure that we're driving uh and evolving our ability to service folks once they get into the park that's been the key to driving our in-park revenue so as we think about it i would say that i'm really pleased with what i think we're going to get out of the 25 capital lineup i'm excited for the changes we can make in 26 and increasingly and 27. So in all of our markets in the combined portfolio, not just the six, I think we're going to show the consumer that there's great value. And again, I'll always go back to what drives our investment decisions is listening to our guests, doing that consumer research and making sure we're investing in the things that they'll give us credit for, and that will create a higher perceived value. You know, keeping that value, that price value equation in mind, making sure we're working on the value side of it, as Brian said, that's key to driving price over the long term while still getting the attendance lift.
Okay. Very good. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Chris.
Your next question comes from the line of Michael Schwartz with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Maybe just to start, I think I'm doing the math correctly um you know the legacy six flags parks grew attendance about 16 percent a year year in the fourth quarter i i as i understand that there were you know i think you said something like 15 20 extra operating days for those parks um around the holidays is there any way of looking you know like on a like for like day basis what what the uh the the attendance growth looked like Yeah, Mike, it's Brian.
On the sixth side, there wasn't, at those parts in the portfolio, the operating day delta was not the main driver. I think what we would say that the core driver of the lift in attendance was, you know, the execution, successful execution of a great plan to invest heavily in and expand the offerings of the Fright Fest event, which was received very well. That was just lifted by the fact that the five weeks of October were some great weather across the country and all the parts in the portfolio. So, you know, we're very encouraged. Your numbers are pretty close. It was a mid-teens lift there. And like we talked about on the Cedar side, if you normalize the fiscal calendar shift, it was a high single-digit increase. The bar was a little bit lower at our Six Flags parts. 2023, October, was disrupted by a lot of inclement weather, particularly on the East Coast. And so our comparisons were favorable weather-wise. That wasn't as much of a headwind at our Cedar Legacy parks. So we're really pleased about that high single-digit increase at those parks.
And speaking with, I think per caps may have came in a little softer than what we thought, maybe many in the street thought.
Just maybe walk through some of the puts and takes there. was currency an issue was was you know park mix a factor as well yeah it always comes down to i think some of those those things right mike which is um you know park mix and and the performance can play into it um i i will say you know admissions when anytime you see that kind of lift and richard alluded to this earlier you know when attendance is up that strongly you know near double digits or or in the case of the six parks in a month like october you know mid-teens a lot that's coming from lower admission per cap channels that that's i don't mean to say that in a bad way it's season pass it's um you know it's maybe more groups it's it's great attendance and revenue to have um but it does put pressure on emissions per cap so we saw a little bit of emissions per cap pressure but as we said we saw in park spend for a lot of the reasons that we articulated earlier on the call increasing right the parks being a bit more crowded people stay a little bit longer, they spend more when they stay longer, they buy the premium experiences, and so all of that worked in our favor. We did see a little bit of headwinds around FX in both Canada and Mexico, and that's consistent with what our prepared remarks, my comment during that part of the call where we know where we ended the year in terms of exchange rates, there's erosion from where we began the year. Now, hopefully that's stabilized, but we'll see how it goes as we roll into 2025.
Your next question comes from the line of David Katz with Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Hi, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Two quick ones. I know you've talked about some of these items, but I'd love a little more perspective on, you know, where you are so far with respect to technology and, you know, your ability to sort of capture data and, you know, put that to productive use. And then my second, you know, one for Brian is just going back to the guidance, which does not include any weather events. And this is a question for sort of so much of our coverage, you know, is there not, you know, a new normal that includes some abnormalities? And just wondering how you thought about that. And zero snarkiness intended in that portion of the question. Thanks.
Let me take the first one. I'll let Brian take the second one. Thanks, David. You know, as we look at what coming in this merger, one of the things we were very excited about in that we focused on for the last several years is building out our business intelligence, our reliance on data, making sure we can get to the data. That has been a priority after we completed the merger. You know, even though we don't have everybody all harmonized on the same systems, we found ways to extract the data. And in our weekly business performance meeting that we hold every week on midweek, make sure we're evaluating the same type of data and the same data across all of the combined portfolio. So that's been a priority for us. You know, we really are now using new KPIs that 20 years ago we didn't focus on, transactions per guest, average transaction value. We're making sure that we're balancing out the NPS, the OSAT, the guest satisfaction scores with our ability to drive revenue, with our ability to drive the business. So I would say that we're going to continue to make progress on that in 2025. Data and the analytics around it are how we make decisions.
And we've embedded both the art and science into our weekly cadence as we go through the an operating season as it relates to you know to the weather I guess let me clarify my earlier comment you know the midpoint of our range would assume what we would characterize as as a normal operating year from a weather perspective and and by that we mean we're going to have some some headwinds from weather it's going to rain on days it's going to you know not be ideal the forecasts aren't always going to be in our favor. But those tend to average themselves out. And as we noted, you know, in a much more diverse, geographically diversified portfolio, now as a combined company, we think that helps mitigate that risk. What we haven't tried to do is be any smarter than we can be and predict when a hurricane is going to hit and which market it's going to hit. We know those things tend to happen um to the extent that they're uh ahead of um you know historical sort of trends that pushes you towards the lower end of the range um to the to the extent um that we get better weather like we saw in october right i mean the record october performance is one where where our weather uh and so from that perspective the um the uh upside uh comes into play so so that's how we think about weather. And I think the other last thing I guess I would say on that front, David, is why we're so focused on things like growing season pass sales, group bookings, hotel reservations. Those are all natural weather hedges when it comes to visitation.
That's really helpful. Thank you.
Thanks, David. Your next question comes from the line of Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Hi there. Thanks for taking the question. And sorry if I missed this. My line dropped for a second but just on the first quarter um just thinking about like the calendar shift impacts whether that's from you know easter leap year any operating day aspect when new year's day fell and things like that just trying to think of i know there's been a lot of calendar shifts over the past year that have kind of muddied the waters a bit just what we should kind of bear in mind for the first quarter yeah lizzie it's brian so i guess what i can say at the top uh is i'm very excited to say that we don't have any fiscal quarter calendar comparability issues like we had this past year so hopefully that's going to make life a little bit easier as we as we go through um that said you know in any calendar year there's always some some shifts um easter
is is going to fall uh later uh this year um shifting from q1 to q2 um just at a high level i would say that later timing historically has benefited us with with you know maybe as you get a little bit deeper into the calendar weather volatility um you know starts to lessen a little bit um early easter is is always a little bit more challenging from a weather uh perspective particularly um you know at a handful of the parks that aren't located in markets like california or texas um you know that said i don't want to put too much emphasis on you know the timing of easter because it again it's a fraction of our of our uh full opera full portfolio parks that are in operations um so it's not a huge uh difference by the time we announce first quarter numbers we should be in a position you know we'll to provide guidance or provide an update on where results are through april which will help hopefully wash out any of those timing issues um as we look at the balance of the year you know i again we're going to have similar at least the plan is to have a similar number of operating days. We're going to focus adding days at more valuable times of the year and taking days out at higher risk, less valuable times of the year. But from a quarterly comparison, I think you're going to see less noise than you did this past year because the fiscal calendar is lining up.
Got it. That's helpful. And just to go back to the per cap side of things, again, just thinking about the legacy six flags, I think based on what you've said, you know, 324 million of revenue, 5 million attendees, it's like total revenue per cap down, it's five and a half percent. You said impact was up. So I think that would imply admissions per cap was down, you know, somewhere in the high single digit range, if I'm thinking about that correctly. I know it's a light quarter, but just any way to think about that, is that the right way of thinking about the run rate for this year or anything unusual that happened there or just a function of, you know, higher season pass and whatnot?
Yeah, I'd say it's probably more a function of math and averages on a small slice of the business. I wouldn't say that's the expectation for a run rate for a full year 2025. Look, as Richard noted, if we get the attendance lift that we're targeting or even better, that will put pressure on admissions per cap. we call that a type a problem to have because with it is going to come a much higher attendance and revenue base which is the ultimate goal we are leaning in to price you know in certain markets and you know the beauty about being a house of brands you know company we don't have to price the same way in every market and our our strategies and approaches can vary part by part you know always informed as richard said by the guest feedback we're getting by the broader economic backdrops in each of our markets um as we look to 2025 uh we are we are very been very clear it's a volume um focus um drive season pass sales increase group uh bookings uh etc and so you know when we when we typically look for uh or run the volume playbook we're a little less aggressive on pricing but that doesn't mean we don't take pricing. And so I think what we'd like to see is low to mid single digit increases in pricing in most of our markets. But to point about, you know, mix, that will impact, you know, what, where that ultimately lands both mix of channel and also mix of par performance.
That's helpful.
Thank you.
Thanks.
Our final question comes from the line of Ian Zafino with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. This is Isaac Salison on for Ian. Thanks for taking all the questions. I just had one here on attendance trends for the first two months here. Is there any way to quantify or understand the impact of the California wildfires on knots or Magic Mountain? And would growth potentially have been higher than 2%? Thanks.
Thanks for the question. I'll just say, listen, we only closed Magic Mountain one day for high winds. We're monitoring and certainly have seen the trends there. What I'm encouraged by is what I've seen out of that market over the last several days, and we watch it daily as well as weekly. So I think, you know, in any small slice, yes, if you get better weather, don't have these anomalous events, you're going to have higher percentage growth than what you see. But all in all, I feel really pleased with how we're starting out in all our markets right now with the momentum we've gotten 25. So I'll just keep my comments to the broader portfolio.
Okay, understood. Thanks very much, guys.
Thanks, Isaac.
I will now turn the call back over to Richard Zimmerman for closing remarks.
Thank you, everyone, for joining us on today's call. We look forward to your continued support and interest in our company. Brian, Michael, and I look forward to seeing many of you in person at our Investor Day in May or an investor conference later this year. Michael?
Thanks, Richard. Feel free to contact our Investor Relations Department at 419-627-2233. Our next earnings call will be in early May with the release of our first quarter results. That's the end of our call today. Thanks for joining us.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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