FWRG
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
$12.46
-0.01 (-0.08%)
At close · Jul 10
Market Cap
$768.10M
Shares
61,644,885
Price & Indicators
Indicators
Price
Panels
Event markers
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$12.46
Open$12.51
Day$12.41–12.82
52W$9.97–19.53
Avg vol 30d1.1M
Short int5.5M · 8.9% float · 4.1d
Short vol44%
Last earningsMay 5, 2026
DataOct 2021–Jul 2026
Filing10-Q · May 5
Up next
Next earnings call
Aug 4, 2026
Est · unconfirmed
· in 3 wks
FQ3-26 quarter ends
~Sep 28, 2026
Est
filed May 5, 2026
AI Brief
TL;DR.
Bullish
Bearish
From the call
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment advice
Overall
Sell
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Sell
Momentum
Weak
Sentiment
Neutral
Fundamentals
Weak
Quant / Vol
Very High
Market backdrop
VIX 15 · calm
Equity put/call 0.55
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Price vs 200-day avg
−13%
below
Price vs 50-day avg
+6%
above
RSI (14)
54
neutral
MACD trend
Negative
52-week position
26%
mid-range
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
+13%
trailing
6-month return
−25%
trailing
YTD return
−17%
this year
Relative strength
−35%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $12 › 200d $14 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
5 of 211 funds reported for Jun 30 · net -551.0K sh shares · +1 new
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
8.89% of float · ▲ +11.2% MoM · 4.1 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
211 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score
68
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Revenue growth
+20%
Y/Y
EPS growth
+3%
Y/Y
Free cash flow
$-31.0M
Valuation
P/E 44.5
rich
Balance sheet
$247.8M
net debt
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
53%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−47%
past year
ATR
5.0%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the 8-K filed May 5, 2026
Same-restaurant sales growth
· 52-week fiscal year ending December 27, 2026
Initiated
1% – 3%
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Sell
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
−13%
Bearish
Price vs 50-day avg
+6%
Bullish
RSI (14)
54
Neutral
MACD trend
Negative
Bearish
52-week position
26%
Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Bearish · 2 of 6
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $12 › 200d $14 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Distributing
5 of 211 funds reported for Jun 30 · net -551.0K sh shares · +1 new
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
8.89% of float · ▲ +11.2% MoM · 4.1 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
211 holders — near 3-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
52-wk low $10
Now $12 · 26%
52-wk high $20
vs 200-day avg -13%
vs 50-day avg +6%
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from its earnings releases, calls, and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| New system-wide restaurants opened | 16 | Q1 2026 | — |
| Same-restaurant sales growth | 2.8% | Q1 2026 | — |
|
|
|||
| adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP | $27.8M | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| adjusted EBITDA margin non-GAAP | 8.4% | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| company-owned new restaurants opened | 13 | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| new restaurants opened | 16 | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| new system-wide restaurant openings | 16 | first quarter call | — |
| non-comp restaurants contributing to revenue | 194 | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| restaurant-level operating profit margin non-GAAP | 18.5% | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| same restaurant sales growth | 2.8% | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| same-restaurant traffic growth | -2% | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
|
|
|||
| total restaurants | 648 | Q1 FY2026 call | — |
| total system restaurants | 648 | first quarter end call | — |
| System-wide sales | 1.4B | fiscal year 2025 | — |
| Company-owned restaurants | 560 | as of December 28, 2025 | — |
| Comparable Restaurant Base | 381 | 13 weeks and 52 weeks ended December 28, 2025 | — |
| Franchise-owned restaurants | 73 | as of December 28, 2025 | — |
| System-wide restaurants | 633 | as of December 28, 2025 | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "call" marks figures stated on the earnings call, "filing" figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs the prior-year figure on file
Versus peers
Restaurants — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FWRG
this stock
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
|
$768.10M | -17.4% | +20.3% | 44.5 | 8.9% |
|
MCD
Mcdonalds Corp
|
$195.10B | -9.7% | +10.0% | 22.6 | 1.5% |
|
SBUX
Starbucks Corp
|
$120.82B | +26.7% | +2.8% | 80.9 | 4.2% |
|
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
|
$45.22B | -4.7% | +14.3% | 32.3 | 4.0% |
|
YUM
Yum Brands Inc
|
$45.08B | +8.6% | +8.8% | 26.4 | 3.2% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Smart Money
Financials
Filings
Earnings & Events
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRG | -4.8% | +13.5% | -25.5% | -3.3% | -17.4% |
| SPY | +1.4% | +4.1% | +9.1% | +1.1% | +10.7% |
| vs SPY | -6.2% | +9.4% | -34.5% | -4.4% | -28.1% |