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Earnings call · FY2026 Q2
Executive readout · one minute
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resource strategy. At the midpoint of this year, we have a total binding commitment for over 2 gigawatts plus a further 600 megawatts of reservation. On the capacity side, we have around 3 gigawatts of developable capacity, which is not yet committed to end reservation. It is mostly in new markets. In view of our current sales momentum, we are actively adding to the deployment health criteria markets, where demand is growing. While pursuing our ambitious target, we remain selective in terms of customers and the contract terms. We invested against finding long-term commitments from the customers, and we are committed to maintaining financial discipline. I will now pass on to Dan for the financial and operating review.
Thank you, Rudolf. I'll start from the backlog buildup on slide 10. We started the current year with a backlog of 450 megawatts. By the middle of the year, our backlog had increased substantially to 757 megawatts. Based on the pricing in the contracts and our operating cost benchmarks, we estimate that we can generate 2.2 million RMB of adjusted EBITDA per megawatt on average from this backlog. Our booked but not killed adjusted EBITDA was therefore around 1.6 billion RMB. By year end, assuming we achieve our sales target, we expect the backlog to increase further to over one gigawatt. Turning to slide 11, during the first half of 2026, our net move-in was 145 megawatts. During the second half, we forecast move-in of another 90 megawatts, making 235 megawatts for the full year. The move-in pattern over the course of 2026 reflects the timing of bookings last year. For 2027, we forecast move-in will increase substantially to more than double the number for 2026. The move-in will be heavily weighted for the second half of 2027. Assuming we sustain our sales momentum, 2028 should see another step up in move-in. Turning to CapEx on slide 12, our unit CapEx for the new capacity which we are constructing averages around 20 million RMB per megawatt. As we just raised our sales target for the current year, we are also raising our guidance for CapEx pay from 9 billion RMB to 10 billion RMB, most of which is in the second half. Our plan is to continue financing new investments with around 60% debt and 40% equity at the project level. Assuming we can generate a stabilized cash yield on new investments of 10 to 11%, this implies leverage of around 5.5 to 6 times at the project level. Our primary source of debt is onshore, RMB-denominated, long-term bank borings. The onshore bank market remains highly supportive. During TUQ26 alone, we were able to complete 4.9 billion RMB of new debt financing and reconnancing. For the project equity, we have various sources. We have cash with nearly 20 billion RMB on our balance sheet, and we have de-levered down to 4.7 times net debt to last quarter annualized adjusted EBITDA. We have operating cash flow, which continues to strengthen, and we have our onshore asset monetization program, which we are building up in a very deliberate way. Following our successful CREIT IPO, the first post-IPO asset injection is currently under regulatory review. Turning to slide 16, we're revising upwards our full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance to reflect a more accurate financial outlook for this year, which includes the one-time items disclosed in 1Q26. Turning to slide 17, in order to put our first HALF 26 financial performance and revised full year 26 guidance into context, we have made some pro forma adjustments. Starting from reported revenue and reported adjusted EBITDA, we deduct the one-time items in 1Q26. For consistency, we also deduct recurring income in prior quarters, which was restructured into the one-time payment. And we deduct the revenue and adjusted EBITDA contributed by the monetized assets prior to their deconsolidation. These adjustments establish a clean basis for comparison. For the past half of 2026, our pro-forma adjusted EBITDA increased by 12.7%. Taking the midpoint of our revised guidance for full-year 26, the implied growth rate of pro-forma adjusted EBITDA is 6.5%. We'd now like to open the call to questions. Operator?
Thank you.
We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone and write your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. For the benefit of all participants on today's call, please limit yourself to one question. If you have more follow-up questions, please re-enter the queue. A moment for our first question. And our first question comes from the line of Yang Liu from Morgan Stanley. Please ask your question. Yang, your line is open.
Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions, and congratulations on the upward revision of four-year guidance. I would like to ask about the future potential moving. I think that there's a lot of debate on your customers capex and also the availability of GPU in the market and also the constraint of computing power we also see that you expect you're moving to improve dramatically next year what could be the the downside risk for that and if there's any concern or a delay in one customer get the GPUs will the take or pay contract to protect GDS revenue thank you okay yes
Thank you. I think the dynamic of the demands from the different dimension, I think, of course, the key driver is still the GPU. The GPU, I think, in terms of the domestic GPU, the supply is catching up. It took a while in the last couple of quarters, right, as we mentioned, but now it looks like you're on track, so catching up, this is number one. But in the Meanwhile, I think they also drive a lot of traditional growth. What we have seen is that the new order, quite a big number is driven by the CPU, so it will not impact in terms of the supply. It's no issue. So I think this is a more positive. So that's why we take the more positive way to look at the current or future chip supply. so that's that's that's that's our view if you look at the other uh i love these traditional cloud they're still raising their target and uh the the process is very significant as well so i think that that that let's be clear there thank you uh how about the take or pay a term uh protect the gds Yeah.
Yeah.
Two comments. The first is that in each contract, there is a specific delivery date when the capacity has to be available to move in by the customer, and that is a fixed date in each contract. It's up to four quarters from when the booking is disclosed. So that part, I think, is unchangeable. After that, there's a move-in period, and it varies from contract to contract. We've been very focused on trying to select contracts which had a shorter move-in period and a fixed commitment. For the purposes of forecasting, we assumed that the move-in will be, on average, over four quarters on a straight-line basis. So that is what our forecast reflects. In reality, it could be faster or it could be slower. But I don't think it will materially deviate from that.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now proceed to take our next question. And our next question comes from Sarah Wong from UBS. Please ask your question, Sarah.
Thank you for the opportunity to ask the question And then, congrats on the really solid new order signs. As mentioned, just mentioned that there's increasing demand from emerging AI leaders. So, just wondering, is there any difference in their demand profile or contract terms compared to established cloud or internet hyperscale customers we already served for quite some time?
I think we are just starting to build up our vision. So far, we are very selective in some business from some new AI leaders. I think in terms of their demand profile, it looks like it's getting bigger and bigger, but we are still very selective. Our main customer is a new business, mainly driven by the hyperscale, a couple of the larger hyperscale. But we think that there are some new customers in the future. It's the right thing to do to diversify our customer ways. So we just start to build some relationship with that right now. So, of course, there are demands.
Workload is obviously influenced, which we do. I see.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Frank Laufen from Raymond James and Associates. Please ask your question, Frank. Your line is open.
I wanted to get an update on your new guidance and what does that imply for the impact of potential action with the CREAT contribution? Does that include any of that? And what would you expect that to be? How would you expect that to impact revenue and EBITDA? And then secondly, if you could just address the slowdown in MRR, how should we think about that? And if we're looking forward, are you signing contracts that should be resulting in an improvement in MRR going forward? How should we think about that? Thanks.
Frank, first of all, on guidance, to make clear that our guidance does not take account of any further asset monetization. There's a transaction in progress under regulatory review. We can't be any more specific about the timing of that, but to be clear, it's not factored For the MSR, we provided guidance about the yield in terms of EBITDA per megawatt for the backlog and the new business that we're winning. I think that will help for forecasting. If we go back to MSR, I always make the comparison on a same quarter basis. So we take 4Q26 compared with 4Q25. We forecast that it will be down 3% and then maybe by a similar amount next year. But part of that is the change in the location mix because there's a substantial amount of new business in new markets. And part of it is due to the legacy contracts where we have about another 18 months to go before we are through the transition of adjusting all of our contracts to the current market pricing. So our guidance this year and what we indicate in the future will fully reflect that.
Yeah, I should point out that, I mean, the Tier 1 market, I mean, also the new market, the current price level is market stable.
This is all about a transition.
Okay, great.
Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Daley Lee from Bank of America Securities. Please ask your question, Daley. Your line is open.
Hi. Thanks, management for taking a question. Congrats on the opportunity for the new orders. I have one question regarding the moving. I remember in last earnings call, we are sending soft moving rate in Q2, but it seems that the number is better than our in the market expectation. So, what will be the – what have been the key drivers for better moving in Q2, and secondly, how do we see the demand and supply trend in the data center market in China, considering the power quarter approval progress by the government? Thank you.
David, I would not read anything into the quarterly fluctuations. Most of the move-in in the current year is a capacity that was booked in 2025 or even before. And if you look at the bookings in 2025, they had a very strong first quarter of 2025 and then the second, third, fourth quarter were at a lower consistent level. And then from the first quarter of this year, our bookings increased by a very large amount. That sustained in the second quarter gave an indication for the full year that that sustained. So I think you can derive from that the outlook for moving over 2020, made of 2026 and 2027. We see a significant increase in moving in the second half of 2027, which is going to lead to a significant acceleration of EBITDA growth.
The current power quality, there's a couple of key points, and number one is now it's controlled by the central government and the municipal government as well. So basically if you apply the power, the first step is to go to the municipal level to get to the local government then commitment to their full support.
Thank you. Thank you. We will now take our next question from the line of Edison Lee from Jefferies. Please ask your question. Edison, your line is open.
Yeah, thank you for taking my questions. So congrats on the good results. My question, sorry, is really centering around just reconfirming the definition of the bookings and the reservations. So I assume that bookings mean contracts have been signed and reservations mean that is being sort of an MOU with indicated interest by the customers, and you look forward to converting that into signed contracts over the next few quarters? Is my understanding correct?
Not exactly. What I'd like to make clear is that there's a sales agreement which contains a booking which is a contractual take-or-pay commitment, but within the same document we undertake to reserve capacity to enable the customer to have certainty of being able to make commitments at typically at the same site in future over a period of time. So the bookings and the reservations go together, and that's how the customers look at it from a resource planning perspective.
Yeah. In a minute, I think we should say, based on our last 12 or 18 months experience, which the reservation, our customers exercise their reservation in a 100% base. That's our current experience. But in terms of the case by, face by face, we should have stood negotiating the moving But in general, reservation provides a very, very high certainty for our future booking.
Okay, so can I follow up by asking your booking targets this year? Right now it's one gigawatt. I think in the last quarter, I think your target was still 500 megawatt. So this doubling of the booking's target, I believe, is driven by your customers or your assessment of the customer's demand. uh and is it possible for you to split the customer's demand into training versus inference or you have no idea how to split that i think the campus like in the new market i think they they will host different workload it's a training plus uh inference they're both both their workloads.
Are we increased? Increase the guidance? I think increased guidance is, number one, the whole market demand we see is an increase. If you look at our hyperscale, they continue to increase their capex. That's in line with it. That is number one. Number two, I think the GDF still maintained a lot of advantage, which is the power resource.
Can you talk about the locations of your power resource? Well, no. So the part that we identify is the developer capacity that is almost entirely new markets. That capacity in established markets, but it's under reservation.
There's only a small amount in established markets that is not permitted or reserved. So is that very different from what you disclosed in the last quarter in terms of locations thank you we will now move up to our next question and our next
question comes from the line of Timothy Chow from Goldman Sachs please ask your question, Timothy. Your line is open.
Thank you, Majin, for taking that question. I think I just want to get more clarity on the MUYIN and how do you want to look at the revenue and EBITDA beyond this year. Just wondering if you can give us a breakdown, like, for example, for this year, a lot of MUYINs, what is the proportion between CPU-based and GPU-based? And into next year, it seems that you are looking for the MUYIN to be more than double to close to 700 megawatts next year? And what will be that breakdown between GPU and CPU next year? And with that 700 megawatts moving, of course, I think the majority will be more geared toward the second half of the next year. So if that is the case, then how do you think about revenue and EBITDA growth beyond this year into 2017 and 2018. Thank you.
I think it's not in general, we don't have the current detail on that specific number in terms of that breakdown there. But in general, I think I can give you the general assumption, maybe around 50-50.
About growth in 2027, we provide annual guidance, obviously, We won't be doing that until we give the full-year results in around March next year. But what you can already see is that over the course of next year, there's going to be a very significant acceleration. The growth rate in 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q is going to be very different. I think what really matters is where we are at the end of the year and where we are in I believe it's already a strong indication that in 2028 GDS is going to be a pretty high growth company.
Thank you. And if you may follow up on the breakdown 50-50, just wondering if that refers to both this year and next year and onwards, or how that mix can change in the next year?
Yeah. Yeah, maybe the GPU will be a little bit higher next year. Yeah, that's what I guess. Yeah, based on the current domestic supply, it's catching up.
I think, yeah, yeah.
Thank you. Due to the time limit of today's call, I would now like to turn the call back to the company for any closing remarks. Thank you all once again for joining us today, and we'll see you next time. This concludes this conference call. You may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.