Graco Inc Q4 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good morning, and welcome to the Fourth Quarter Conference Call for Graco Inc. If you wish to access a replay for this call, you may do so by visiting the company's website at www.graco.com. Graco has additional information available in the PowerPoint slide presentation, which is available as part of the webcast player. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions-and-answers after the opening remarks from management. During this call, various remarks may be made by management about their expectations, plans and prospects for future. These remarks constitute forward-looking statements for the purpose of the safe harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Actual results may differ materially from those indicated as a result of the various risk factors, including those identified in Item 1A of the company's 2022 Annual Report on the Form 10-K and Item 1A of the company's most recent quarterly report on Form 10-Q. These reports are available on the company's website at www.graco.com and the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. Forward-looking statements reflect management's current views and speak only as of the time they are made. The company undertakes no obligation to update these statements in light of new information or future events. I will now turn the conference over to Chris Knutson, Executive Vice President, Corporate Controller.

Good morning everyone, and thank you for joining our call. I'm here today with Mark Sheahan and David Lowe. I will provide a brief overview of our quarterly results before turning the call over to Mark for additional commentary. Yesterday, Graco reported fourth quarter sales of $567 million, an increase of 2% from the fourth quarter of last year. The effect of currency translation increased sales by one percentage point or approximately $6 million. Reported net earnings decreased 13% to $110 million for the quarter or $0.64 per diluted share. In December, the company transferred $147 million of its pension obligations to an insurance company through the purchase of an annuity contract. In connection with the transfer, we recognized a non-cash pre-tax pension settlement charge of approximately $42 million recorded in other non-operating expense. Excluding the impact of this pension settlement loss, certain non-recurring tax provision adjustments and excess tax benefits from stock option exercises, adjusted non-GAAP net earnings were $137 million or $0.80 per diluted share, an increase of 10%. The gross margin rate increased 370 basis points in the quarter. Strong price realization and lower product costs were more than enough to offset lower factory volumes. Total operating expenses increased $10 million or 8% in the quarter, mainly due to volume and rate-related increases of $3 million as well as higher sales and earnings-based expenses of $3 million. Gross margin rate improvement more than offset these increased operating expenses during the quarter, resulting in operating margin rate growth of 2.5 percentage points. The adjusted effective tax rate was 19% for the quarter. Cash provided by operations totaled $651 million for the year, an increase of $274 million from last year, mostly driven by higher net earnings and a reduction in inventory purchases. Cash provided by operations as a percent of net earnings is 129% for the year. Significant year-to-date uses of cash include dividends of $158 million, share repurchases of $102 million, which were offset by share issuances of $60 million, debt repayment of $75 million and capital expenditures of $185 million, including $108 million of facility expansion projects. A few comments as we move forward to 2024. Based on current exchange rates, assuming the same volumes, mix of products, and mix of business by currency as in 2023, movement in foreign currencies would have no impact on net sales or net earnings for the full year. Unallocated corporate expenses are projected to increase to a range of $41 million to $44 million with the increase related to share-based compensation. The effective tax rate is expected to be 19.5% to 20.5%, excluding any impact from excess tax benefits related to stock option exercises and other one-time items. We expect capital expenditures to be approximately $120 million, with $60 million for facility expansion projects. Since 2018 and through 2024, we will have invested nearly $500 million to expand our global manufacturing capacity. By the end of this year, we will have completed expansion projects for nearly all of our operations which should set us up for several years of growth. I'll now turn the call over to Mark for further segment and regional commentary.

Thank you, Chris. Good morning, everyone. All my comments this morning will be on an organic constant currency basis. Sales in the fourth quarter were up low single digits, resulting in quarterly and annual records for both revenue and operating earnings. Our Industrial and Process segments saw record annual sales, and I'm encouraged by the fourth quarter sales growth in our Contractor segment. All segments finished the year with record annual operating earnings. Pricing actions implemented in late 2022 and at the beginning of 2023 drove sales growth and gross margin expansion during the quarter and for the year. Our strong price realization across all businesses and regions, combined with improved product availability, stable product costs, and favorable product and channel mix resulted in meaningful improvement in our gross margin rate. These improvements resulted in company-wide incremental margins of nearly 150% for the year. Adjusted net earnings expressed as a percentage of sales was 24% for the year, which is the highest in company history. Pricing actions taken in early 2024 closely resembled traditional levels in terms of size and cadence, with all segments and regions initiating price increases at the beginning of the year. At the end of 2023, our consolidated backlog was $280 million, which was $75 million below last year's ending backlog. Backlogs have returned to normal levels within most product categories, but continue to remain slightly elevated in our semiconductor and powder coatings businesses. Now turning to some commentary on our segments. Contractor segment sales improved in the fourth quarter, growing at low single digits. Soft demand in the home center channel and challenging global construction markets remain headwinds. However, new product introductions and continued strength in the Protective Coatings and spray foam product categories were more than enough to offset these headwinds in the quarter. Operating earnings were 29% for the quarter and for the year as contractors benefited from pricing actions and favorable product mix by selling larger professional units and fewer home center units. Heading into 2024, we're cautiously optimistic about business conditions based on improving global construction indicators. As affordability improves, new and existing home sales are predicted to increase throughout the year, along with expected growth in commercial and non-residential spending. The Industrial segment achieved record sales and earnings for the year, despite a 1% revenue decline in the fourth quarter compared to last year. Growth in liquid finishing and sealant and adhesive product lines were not enough to offset the impact of lower powder finishing system sales in EMEA and Asia Pacific in the quarter. Fourth quarter 2022 represented peak revenue for our powder finishing group as projects delayed during the pandemic were completed and placed into service. Our Process segment grew 4% in the quarter and 11% for the year. For the year, we saw growth in all regions and reported record earnings. Increases were posted for the quarter in many business units and across all reportable regions, led by double-digit growth in vehicle services and process pumps. Price realization and increased volume drove incremental margins of 89% in the fourth quarter and 83% for the full year. We had broad-based revenue growth in all our businesses this year, resulting in record operating profit margins for the segment. Moving on to our outlook, as we enter 2024, we're keeping a close eye on incoming order rates and global economic indicators. Despite a difficult macroeconomic environment, we remain committed to our core strategies of launching new products, entering new markets, expanding our global channel, and pursuing strategic acquisitions. As a result, we're initiating revenue guidance for the full year 2024 of low single-digit growth on an organic constant currency basis. That concludes the prepared remarks. Valerie, we're ready for questions.

Our first question comes from Deane Dray of RBC Capital Markets.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Hi Deane.

Let's start with pricing. Mark, you mentioned that it's back to a single price increase, which represents what would be considered normal pricing overall. Can you discuss the expectations for new product introductions? Additionally, regarding costs, it seems like labor inflation is still an issue. Is there anything else we need to consider? Are we back to normal in terms of other costs?

Yes, the pricing actions are in line with our historical practices, reflecting inflation, give or take a bit. All business units and regions are implementing increases, and we feel good about returning to a normal cadence. If anything changes, we are prepared to adjust as necessary, but it seems unlikely this year. Our cost pressures for the full year remain unfavorable compared to our expectations, but we are starting to see some positive signs as the year progresses. In the fourth quarter, conditions improved slightly. If this trend continues, I am optimistic that it could positively affect our gross margin as the year unfolds. Labor remains tight. We have increased wages to align with the market, but despite the tightness, we haven't faced major challenges in attracting new talent to Graco. It's a strong company with growth potential, and we have a compelling story to share. Even with retirements, we have been able to fill positions quite easily. Overall, I feel confident as we move into the year, and we will monitor how things develop.

Great. And then just as a second question, going to our favorite traffic light slide, can you just comment on the changes versus last quarter? So improved outlook in Industrials America, but Industrials Asia Pacific dipping and process Americas look also has worsened. I know you touched on the powder finishing impact, but kind of reconcile some of those changes with what's actually going on in the business and order expectations?

This is David Lowe. In North America Industrial, we've observed strong project activity throughout the second half of 2023. Our team has reported strength in several core markets, including E-Mobility, aerospace, solar panels, and agricultural equipment. We are optimistic that this momentum will carry into 2024. However, in the Asia Pacific industrial sector, the situation is mixed, with construction activity—essential for powder coating applications—continuing to be a weak area for us, particularly in China, where the outlook remains uncertain. Regarding the process in the Americas, as Mark mentioned, the business remains strong, but we are seeing a decline in orders in the semiconductor sector, which aligns with industry trends. Notably, our performance in markets outside of North America continues to be robust.

That's really helpful. Just a quick clarification, David, please. You mentioned the weakness in China. We had a company report this morning that referenced weakness in China no less than 14 times in their prepared remarks. Has there been any noticeable downshift in China? It's been weak consistently, but has it turned more negative for you in the last couple of months? Any insights on that would be appreciated.

I would say the quick answer. I've got a cheat sheet here. I'd say it has not. I'm going to check this, while I'm ....

I think that the overall China has been weak for us. And I would say that a couple of the areas that have been the weakest have been in our contractor business and our powder coating business. But overall, it's kind of been an ongoing theme for us throughout the year.

I would say that Mark is exactly right. Throughout the whole year, the order rates have been sluggish. We did see some modest improvement, but we generally do not view our businesses as turning around in just a few months or a quarter. However, the rate of softness has diminished, partly because we are moving through the most challenging comparisons from 2022.

Thank you.

Thanks Deane.

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Michael Halloran of Baird. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning everyone.

Hi Mike.

So a couple of questions here. First, 2023 was a massive year for margins across the board here. We're talking about more normalized price, how do we think about what the right run rate looks like as we work through this year? Process had a mini step down in the fourth quarter, but was 30% plus all year. Industrial's at these really large levels. You compare that to '22 and earlier it was just a sea change. So is this sea change at this higher level, the right run rate across the businesses or should we be thinking about something different?

Yes, I feel good about it. I really think that the businesses are performing extremely well. I think the factories are doing well on lower volumes. It's really to be a volume game for us here in '24. If we get volume growth above what we're guiding, it's going to be pretty nice. We've got capacity to utilize, and I really feel like the factories are in good shape to be able to deliver higher revenue. We have the low single-digit guide mostly because if you look out at the global trends, they are trending below normal levels, I would say. And we also have a little bit of inflation sticking around the world, too, and you never really know how that's going to play out. And then you've got other factors that all kind of went in that low single-digit number, even though we're getting some pricing and we've got really nice new products coming out. So if we get volume growth, Mike, things will be great. If volumes hang in there at the low single-digit level, I don't see any deterioration in terms of the overall performance. And there could be some upside in terms of some of the initiatives we have on the cost side to make sure that we're taking advantage of all the opportunities that we have available to us. There's plenty of work for us to do here.

Well, thanks for that Mark. And then you mentioned initiatives, how do you think the internal M&A efforts are going? Maybe some conversations on pipeline actionability and any thoughts on the broader landscape on the M&A side?

Well, we're hearing that '24 might be a little bit more favorable than '23, just in terms of overall M&A activity levels. I feel good about our pipeline. I think I've said this before, but I think that today, I could pull any of the names on our pipeline. I'm going to know how big the company is, what the strategic fit is, actionability, what kind of contact we've had with those companies. And so it's really just a matter of are they ready to get into a transaction or not. I think Graco is in a good spot to be able to look at those opportunities. I think we have a lot to offer. We have world-class manufacturing operations. We have a global distribution channel. We have professional marketing and sales. So if we get the right opportunity with the right management team, we're ready to go. And like I said, I think we feel pretty good about the overall shape of the pipeline these days.

I would just add to that, that I think our experience in '23 really reflects what we saw industry-wide with declines in deal volume. Certainly, the deal supply slipped. I think as maybe in some cases, sellers withheld moving forward trying to figure out where private equity fits in all of this. And at least on some transactions, we followed pretty closely multiples remain elevated. With that said, the work is ongoing with respect to pipeline management, reaching out and cultivating transactions. It's long-term retail work, but I think that any time we can find opportunities where we could work on them on an exclusive basis as opposed to an auction basis, that remains a real opportunity for us. And as Mark said, in addition to our operating philosophy and our channel management skills and some other things that we're proud of is that, quite frankly, given our financial situation, when the opportunity comes along, we can move very quickly.

Appreciate it gentlemen. Thank you.

Thanks Mike.

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Saree Boroditsky of Jefferies. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning. So you typically say low single-digit growth in all regions and segments, but you kind of admitted that today. So maybe just talk about where you expect to see higher or lower growth within the guidance of low single digits for 2024?

I don't think we've fine-tuned it. I think we just decided that we're going to go with the overall macro and I think we're smart enough to know like what's going to be up, what's going to be down, but I feel very confident at this point that overall, that's where the number should be at.

What are your customers talk about commercial sales maybe weakening in the second half of this year due to lower completions? Maybe just talk within contractor about how you're thinking about the resi and commercial completions within your guidance in 2024?

Yes, I believe that while commercial sales are expected to slow down, they will still experience growth in 2024, based on current predictions. I probably have a more optimistic view on the residential market compared to some of the reports out there. I think that stabilization of interest rates, along with the Fed's plan to cut rates, will instill greater confidence in people looking to buy new homes. I expect builders to respond positively to this and we should see increased activity. Additionally, we anticipate more movement in the North American market as people realize they won't be stuck with low mortgage rates and may want to transition to new homes. This should benefit our contractor business as well. I'm also very enthusiastic about the new products set to launch in CED. We had significant success last year with the QuickShot product, and for 2024, we have new electric sprayers in development, along with a Pro shot product that leverages QuickShot technology for our existing sprayers. We're also introducing new guns in the industrial sector and a new gun for spray foam. Plus, we're rolling out two-component flooring products in CED. Overall, the upcoming launches in 2024 give us confidence that we can achieve our revenue growth targets.

And just to add one more. Your industrial margins at 37% in the quarter. I think it's the highest it's ever been. So maybe just think about that as starting off point, how you're thinking about price cost in 2024, the volume impact, just how you think about industrial margins as you think about 2024 and beyond. Thanks.

Yes, I think they can go higher if we get the volume. Like I said earlier, I think that there's a lot of capacity in the factories. Volumes have not been as strong lately as they had been historically. Most of the growth in '23 came from our pricing actions. So there's no lid on the industrial margins that I am aware of.

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Thanks. Good morning guys.

Morning Joe.

So just my first question, like look, I agree with what Mike said earlier, just the performance this year on the margin with really no volumes was pretty impressive. As I kind of think about your product cost initiatives, how far along would you say you are? And maybe if you could just provide a little bit more color on how that's impacting margins as well, that would be great?

Are you talking about the purchased items in the factories when you say product cost?

Yes, just that you're continuing to lower product costs. I would imagine that you're simplifying your line and also from a sourcing perspective, probably also benefiting. But any color that really kind of driving lower product costs across your portfolio?

Yes, each business unit has engineers focused on finding ways to reduce product costs. This is an ongoing effort. Additionally, when we launch a new product, we often look for ways to reduce costs on the existing ones, which can yield significant benefits if everything goes according to plan. Regarding factory input costs, we began to notice some favorable trends in the third quarter moving into the fourth quarter, particularly in what we refer to as purchase price variance. If this trend continues into 2024, it could serve as a positive factor for us. While I don't want to make predictions, we haven't observed the same level of inflationary pressures as we did in the past few years. We hope that if we maintain our price increases and effectively manage costs, there is a good opportunity for gross margin expansion in 2024, which we have included in our internal plans.

Got it. That's great to hear. And I guess, look, you took a look across the different regions in your segments and what does stand out to me is what's happening in the industrial segment in the US or in the Americas. The growth has been really good, had been in 2023. I guess we've been talking a lot and writing a lot about mega projects and ultimately, what that means for industrial growth going forward, whether it's this year or next. How are you thinking about the investment that's happening in the US and ultimately, like when you start to see it flow through your own P&L?

I think it should be good for us. I can't say that we've actually started to experience it. I can't point to specific projects that we've gotten as a result of that. But for sure, any time they move a factory around from one location to another. They usually don't rip out the old Graco equipment and put it into a new facility. They usually just rebuy the stuff because in terms of the overall capital outlay, our stuff really isn't all that expensive, and it's just easier and better if they take advantage of that. In North America industrial, they've really done a nice job executing on some of the initiatives that we've got around electric vehicles and battery production. And in addition to that, I think that the powder business in North America has actually performed a little bit better than where it had outside of the North America marketplace. So feel good about the team there and the growth and what they're working on. I think they got their eye on the ball and they're focused on the right things. And some of the products that they got coming out as well in the electric pump category should drive some incremental growth because a lot of these customers, if they're moving into a new facility, they're also looking at their energy consumption. And if they can put in an electric drive pump instead of an air drive pump, they save a lot of energy. And so we think that there's going to be the potential to get some incremental business with those new builds, but also, we can go back into old customers as well and try to persuade them that there's a payback and ROI if they move to an electric platform. So a lot of good things happening in industrial, and I think they're in a good spot to have a decent 2024.

Yes, and I would say, just adding to Mark's comment that there are opportunities for reshoring or nearshoring, whatever you want to call it, that I think does play out over time. For example, I can use an example in my own finishing experience, where about a decade ago, a couple of large Japanese automotive OEMs decided to start a couple of greenfield facilities in Central Mexico, sort of away from where the traditional automotive manufacturers were operating. And from the time they initiated the project when they started making cars, it took about five years. And the reason for that is it took the better part of five years to flesh out a vendor base that was suitable for the standards of Japanese car companies. So on the higher end of projects, I think it should be a positive as alluded to over the next several years. But things like supply chains and so forth don't come together overnight, especially in the higher value-added product categories.

Got it. That's great color. If I could just fit one more in, just real quickly on the pension settlement. What's left on the pension at this point? I know that you did the $147 million this quarter, but what's left on the liability side?

I think we have about $127 million remaining from the PBO after we did this round of the derisking.

Okay, great. Thank you very much.

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning.

Hi Jeff.

The business has experienced significant growth, but it seems to have slowed in the fourth quarter, and you're suggesting it aligns with low single-digit growth. Are you noticing any real slowdown in that sector, or are we just beginning to adjust to the challenging comparisons?

Yes, I believe, as David mentioned earlier, the semiconductor business is likely to experience a slight decline in 2024. However, the expectation is that spending will begin to increase again around mid-2024. Last year at this time, we had significant backlogs of customer orders, and while we haven't cleared all of those, we've made considerable progress. Aside from that, I don't have major concerns. The vehicle service segment remains strong, our industrial lubricant division is performing well, and there are still ample opportunities to improve our market position. The process pumping business is looking good, and we have an electric drive diaphragm pump that we are excited to introduce to customers to drive additional growth. Overall, I feel optimistic about all of our business units, with a minor exception for the semiconductor sector.

Okay. So it seems this will be your last year of growth capital. Should we anticipate that by 2025 you will revert to a $60 million CapEx, or will there be new projects coming up?

No, I think we're in great shape facility-wise once we get through 2024, and I would highly expect that our normal maintenance CapEx plus improvements is going to be somewhere in that $50 million to $60 million range.

Thank you. One moment please. Our next question comes from the line of Matt Summerville of D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Hi, just a couple of quick ones. With respect to the performance you saw in contractor, can you maybe just touch on the divergence in the home center channel versus propane and whether you see that trend continuing in '24, given kind of new product cadence you're looking for?

Yes, you know I'll be honest with you Matt, a year ago, somebody might have told me that full year CED is going to be up or down 1%. I think we all would have said, we'll take that just given all the doom and gloom that was out there in the marketplace, everything from DIY was way overbought to the housing market. It's going to collapse and crater and all that negative stuff. But as I think I reminded people at one point, that business is made up of a lot of different things, and you've got line striping, you've got all spray foam, you've got protective coatings, which are all kind of more in the professional camp as well as all the pro sprayers that we sell through the professional paint stores. And that side, the pro paint held up probably better than what we would have expected. And then the other pieces that I mentioned were actually fairly robust with a lot of the infrastructure spend that's been going on and opportunities to go in and reinsulate homes, for example, with spray foam. So all in all, I feel pretty good about that. I feel like the home center in terms of their inventory levels has gotten to a point where they're comfortable, and they're at the level that they're seeing in terms of foot traffic in the stores from a demand standpoint. So I feel like we've already been through most of the pain there in terms of reductions. We do have some new products going in there this year. We'll see what happens with that. If the level of activity remains where it is, and we do a good job on the new products, we'd actually see some potential growth in the home center in 2024. We'll just have to see how things shake out.

Got it. And just as a follow-up, how do you guys think about balance sheet optimization, especially to the comment made earlier, this big multiyear kind of CapEx cycle for Graco real starting to roll off in '24, essentially abating in '25, and yet you're sitting here with $0.5 billion in net cash. How should we think about whether or not you guys are likely to step up and get more aggressive with repurchases if the M&A pipeline maybe doesn't play out as you hope? How should we be thinking about kind of optimizing the balance sheet for Graco?

Well, for sure, top priority would be to do some acquisitions that make sense, strategic ones, and we can add value put points on the board that pay back nice rates of return for our investors. And I think David alluded to the fact that pricing has been a little bit of a challenge here. We'll see what happens. I like the pipeline, we will be active. That would be my top choice and I think the top choice of our management team. We've always had the, I'll call it, the happy problem of generating more cash than we can plow back into the business. And historically, we've taken care of that through buying back our stock and doing some acquisitions. But for sure, it's front and center in terms of things that we're keeping an eye on. We do have $0.5 billion in cash on the balance sheet, but we are a $14-plus billion market cap companies. So in terms of the overall leverage, it looks big, but again, given the size and scale of Graco, I don't really view it as a significant problem at this point. I don't think anyone has a gun to David Lowe's head or my head saying that we have to deploy that capital. We sure would like to. We'll do our best to be able to take advantage of opportunities on the share buyback side and M&A going forward. But it's a great problem to have. The company performs extremely well. We're fortunate to have this happy problem.

So I should leave well enough alone because that's a good summary. I'll just add two things. Number one, I think we like the flexibility that the position gives us to move quickly when opportunities and such come along. And some of you have heard me talk about before, while I don't think of our stock as a classic cyclical, Wall Street does because of the markets we serve. And what that means is from time to time, without a lot of change in our business, cyclical stocks go on a discount, and I think our record over the last couple of decades has been pretty good at buying in most recently in '22, also in '20, back in '15 and '16 when we were, I think, experiencing a 30% haircut. And it's nice to know that, that remains a real option for us when the opportunity comes along.

Got it. Thank you guys.

Thanks Matt.

Thank you. If there are no further questions, I'd like to turn the call back over to Mark Sheahan for closing remarks.

Okay. Thanks very much. I'd like to thank our customers, employees, all of our channel partners around the world for a great year in 2023. Their dedication and loyalty and unwavering commitment to Graco is really what provides us with the winning edge in the marketplace. I thank you all for participating in today's call. That concludes the call for today.

This concludes our conference call for today. Thank you all for participating, and have a nice day. All parties may now disconnect.