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GPK · Graphic Packaging Holding Co

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$11.40 -0.44 (-3.72%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$3.51B
Shares
296.07M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Graphic Packaging Holding Co Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 3, 2026 Audio replay Verified speakers
Feb 3, 2026 1:01:14 36 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
1:01:14
Sources
5 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Graphic Packaging's full-year 2025 net sales fell 2% to $8.6 billion and net income declined to $444 million from $658 million, as overcapacity in bleached paperboard and weak consumer demand pressured pricing and volumes. New CEO Robbert Rietbroek has launched a comprehensive operational, footprint, and portfolio review and is reaffirming a 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow target of $700–$800 million.

Cost reduction and operational efficiency 32 Innovation and customer partnerships 31 Free cash flow and debt paydown 23 Overcapacity and soft demand environment 13 Waco startup performance 10 New CEO transition and strategic review 9

Management tone

Positive

Net tone +15 · moderate hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “The external environment remains challenged near term. Overcapacity in commodity bleached paperboard markets is putting pressure on finished packaging, and demand trends for consumer staples remain uneven as a result of affordability and macroeconomic uncertainty.”
  • “I see tremendous opportunity to create real value for shareholders by one, enhancing profitability through cost actions and operational efficiencies; two, reducing inventory and capital spending to drive significant free cash flow generation”
  • “the combination of softer than expected market demand and the need to build inventory out of the Waco startup led to paperboard and finished goods inventory levels higher than what we currently require”
  • “We are a global leader in innovation, but we need to move more quickly from idea to commercialization.”

Forward guidance

5 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

5 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $2.10B +0.4% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $71.00M -48.6% YoY

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Waco project substantially complete with total projected spend of $1.67 billion; startup costs of ~$40 million in 2025 came in below original expectation and are expected to be zero in 2026
  • Full-year 2025 Innovation Sales Growth of $213 million, approximately 2.5% of Net Sales
  • Company affirming 2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow target of $700 million to $800 million
  • Established a transformation office led by a new Chief Transformation Officer to drive operational improvements, productivity, and cost savings
  • Strong relationships with leading CPGs, QSRs, and retailers supported by an industry-leading asset base of about 100 packaging facilities

Risks & pressure points

  • Full-year 2025 Net Sales declined 2% to $8,617 million from $8,807 million in 2024
  • Full-year 2025 Net Income fell to $444 million ($1.48/diluted share) from $658 million ($2.16/diluted share) in 2024
  • Q4 2025 Adjusted EBITDA decreased $93 million year-over-year to $311 million, driven by lower packaging price and volume
  • Overcapacity in commodity bleached paperboard markets is putting pressure on finished packaging pricing
  • Paperboard and finished goods inventory levels are higher than required, with target reduction of ~200,000 tons back to 15%–16% of sales
  • Waco and Kalamazoo project costs to complete were higher than anticipated, and near-term priority is debt paydown over dividend changes

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 3, 2026.

Metric Guided
Net Sales
2026
$8.4B – $8.6B
Adjusted EBITDA
2026
$1.05B – $1.25B
Adjusted Free Cash Flow
2026
$700M – $800M
Adjusted EPS
2026
$0.75 – $1.15
Capital spending
2026
$450M

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Dividend / share
$0.11
Full-screen source Call document