Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Gates Corporation fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during that time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. And if you'd like to withdraw that question, and again, press star one. I'd now like to turn the conference over to Rich Quas, VP of Investor Relations and Strategy. Rich, please go ahead.
Greetings, and thank you for joining us on our fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. I'll briefly cover our non-gap and forward-looking language before passing the call over to our CEO, Ivo Yurik, who will be followed by Brooks Mallett, our CFO. Before the market opened today, we published our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. A copy of the release is available on our website at investors.gates.com. Our call this morning is being webcast and is accompanied by a slide presentation. On this call, you'll refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that we believe are useful in evaluating our performance. Reconciliations of historical non-GAAP financial measures are included in our earnings release and the slide presentation, each of which is available in the investor relations section of our website. Please refer now to slide two of the presentation, which provides a reminder that our remarks will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different from those expressed in or implied by such forward-looking statements. These risks include, among others, matters that we have described in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, and in other filings we make with the SEC, including our Q3 quarterly report on Form 10-Q that was filed in October 2025. We disclaim any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. We will be attending several conferences over the coming weeks and look forward to meeting with many of you. And before we start, please note that all comparisons are against the prior year period unless stated otherwise. advice. Also, moving forward, please note we will be making changes to our geographic disclosures in our future presentations. We'll consolidate China and East Asia and India into an Asia-Pacific disclosure, and we will consolidate North America and South America into an America's disclosure. This approach aligns with how we manage our in-region, for-region strategy. Now, I'll turn the call over to Ivo.
Thank you, Rich. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Let's begin on slide three of the presentation. Let me begin with a brief recap of the year. Gates delivered solid results in 2025. We've posted nearly 1% core growth and outperformed our end markets, many of which remain in contraction. Our secular growth drivers are accelerating with personal mobility business exceeding 25% core growth in 2025, and our data center business growing 4x compared to 2024. In addition, the Gates team delivered record-adjusted earnings metrics in 2025 during an uneven macro environment, producing both record-adjusted EBITDA dollars and record-adjusted EPS. Furthermore, we've made incremental improvements to our balance sheet, bringing our net leverage ratio down to 1.85 times at year-end 2025. We've returned capital to shareholders via share repurchases and were aggressive during the fourth quarter, repurchasing over $100 million of our shares at an attractive valuation. We believe our business is well-positioned to accelerate core growth with our various DIGIC top-line initiatives, as well as to expand margins. In essence, we are exiting the down cycle with a structurally improved business while delivering near-record adjusted EBITDA margin performance. We entered 2026 with cautious optimism about an industrial demand recovery. Our book-to-bill exiting 2025 was nicely above one time and order trends in January sustained a positive threshold. We are seeing improving industrial OEM demand activity and are positioned to support an uptake in demand. Our enterprise resource planning system transition has kicked off successfully and we are operating business in Europe a bit ahead of our expectations. Other footprint optimization initiatives are also on track. Brooks will provide more color on these items and our 2026 guidance later in the presentation. On slide four, we show our record performance against key financial metrics for 2025. Adjusted EBITDA dollars grew to an all-time record and we generated near-record adjusted EBITDA margins. Our adjusted EPS grew 9% to a record $1.52, which was the top end of our guidance in what we believe was a troughing demand landscape accompanied by uncertain trade policy. Our net leverage ratio decreased by almost 0.4 turns, and we finished below two times net leverage for the first time. We are proud of these accomplishments and believe the company is well positioned moving forward to capitalize on a potential industrial recovery. Please turn to slide 5 to review our full year EPS performance. Our adjusted EPS grew 13 cents on 9% year-over-year to $1.52. The bulk of the year-over-year growth in adjusted EPS came from operating performance, which contributed 10 cents year-over-year. We were pleased with the operating performance contribution particularly considering the relatively soft demand backdrop in several of our end markets on slide six i'll review our fourth quarter results the sales were 856 million dollars which represented core growth of nearly one percent total revenues grew slightly above three percent and benefited from favorable foreign currency translation at the end market level while mixed we realized growth in our industrial markets led by the off highway markets and personal mobility a decrease in automotive oem was a partial offset at the channel level oem sales expanded approximately 4% while aftermarket sales declined about 1%. Aftermarket did not increase as much as expected as many of our distributors carefully managed their inventory into calendar year end. In addition, we faced a difficult comparison from prior year period. We were pleased with the growth in OEM sales, which represented a nice step up from third quarter levels. Our adjusted EBITDA approximated $188 million in a fourth quarter, and our adjusted EBITDA margin measured 21.9%, up approximately 10 basis points compared to the prior year period. We managed SG&A spending well, which offset unsavable mix and lower production output. Our adjusted earnings per share was $0.38, an increase of approximately 7% year-over-year. Higher operating income contributed the year-over-year growth partially offset by other items. On slide 7, we'll cover our segment highlights. In forward transmission segment, we generated revenues of $537 million in the quarter and flat-core growth versus prior year period. Our personal mobility business grew 28% year-over-year, and our off-highway business expanded low single digits. At the channel level, our automotive OEM business decreased, but our industrial OEM sales grew solid double digits year-over-year in the fluid power segment our sales were 320 million dollars in approximated 1% core growth our old highway markets grew low double digits partially offset by declines in on highway diversified industrial and energy at the channel level industrial aftermarket sales declined mid-single digits, partially offset by a mid-single digits increase in industrial OEM sales. Our automotive aftermarket increased high single digits compared to prior year period. I'll now pass the call over to Brooks for further comments on our results.
Thank you, Ivo. I'll begin on slide eight and discuss our core sales performance by region. In North America, course sales decreased about 2.5% in Q4 compared to the prior year period. At the channel level, aftermarket sales decreased low single digits and OEM sales were about flat. The aftermarket decrease was influenced by distributor inventory management that Evo referenced earlier in his remarks, as well as a tough automotive aftermarket comparison as we started loading new product for the North American distribution partner we secured in 2024 during the fourth quarter of last year. We saw a nice increase in OEM industrial sales, which were up approximately 4%, offset by lower automotive OEM sales. At the in-market level, core sales and diversified industrial, commercial on-highway, and automotive fell versus the year-ago period, while off-highway and personal mobility increased. In EMEA, core sales grew 5.8 percent in Q4 compared to the prior year period. Industrial markets are beginning to recover with construction, agriculture, and personal mobility, all producing double-digit growth. Commercial on-highway and diversified industrial also posted solid growth, while automotive OEM was a headwind. At the channel level, OEM sales increased double digits, while aftermarket sales expanded low single digits. China core sales grew about 3.5% year over year. Industrial markets were mixed, but we experienced strong growth in commercial, on-highway, personal mobility, and construction. Automotive OEM declined. East Asia and India realized a slight decrease in core sales versus last year. Declines in diversified industrial and automotive more than offset growth in agriculture and commercial on highway. In South America, our core sales in Q4 grew slightly compared to prior year period fueled by commercial on highway and agriculture partially offset by automotive OEM, energy, and construction. Slide 9 shows the components of our year-over-year improvement in adjusted earnings per share. Operating performance contributed $0.03 of benefit and foreign exchange related to favorable currency translation represented $0.01 of improvement. Other items combined to be approximately a $0.02 offset. Slide 10 provides an overview of our free cash flow and balance sheet position. Our free cash flow conversion was 238% of adjusted net income for the fourth quarter, which brought our full-year 2025 free cash flow conversion to 92%. Of note, our 2025 free cash flow conversion included over $30 million of cash restructuring related to footprint optimization initiatives and other restructuring, which is above average spending for our business. Our net leverage ratio declined to 1.85 times at the end of the year, which was over a 0.3 turns improvement relative to year-end 2024. We finished 2025 with a record low net leverage ratio and over $800 million of cash on the balance sheet. In December, S&P upgraded our credit rating to BB from BB- with a stable outlook. Further, we believe a strength of our business is return on invested capital, which ended the year at 23.4%. We continue to make investments in capital projects and enterprise initiatives that we believe will deliver enhanced efficiencies and improve profitability over the medium to long term. Turning to slide 11, we outline our initial 2026 guidance. We believe the majority of our end markets should grow in 2026, and EVO will address this in more detail in a few minutes. As such, we estimate our core sales to grow in a range of 1% to 4% versus the prior year period. We forecast our adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $775 million to $835 million. At the midpoint, we estimate our adjusted EBITDA margin rate to be up slightly year over year. Please recall, we are incurring costs related to our ERP transition in Europe as well as our footprint optimization initiatives that we anticipate will dampen our adjusted EBITDA margin performance during the first half of the year. Collectively, we estimate the cost will represent about a 100 basis points drag year over year on our adjusted EBITDA margin during the first half of 2026, all else equal. We anticipate these costs to run off by the middle of the year and expect benefits from our footprint optimization initiatives to contribute approximately $10 million of adjusted EBITDA in the second half of the year. We have initiated an adjusted earnings per share range of $1.52 per share to $1.68 per share, which represents 5% growth at the midpoint. Our adjusted earnings per share guidance assumes no incremental share repurchases. At the end of the year, we had approximately $194 million outstanding under our current share repurchase authorization. We have budgeted $120 million of capital expenditures for 2026. We project 90% plus free cash flow conversion, assuming above average spending on CapEx and cash restructuring. For the first quarter, we are guiding to a range of $845 million to $875 million in revenue, which factors a core sales decline of 2% to 2.5% year-over-year at the midpoint. Our core sales guidance incorporates a 500 basis points core growth headwind related to this quarter having two fewer business days relative to the prior year period, as well as estimated efficiencies related to our ERP transition. We anticipate recovering most of the sales impacted during the balance of the year. For the first quarter, we estimate an adjusted EBITDA margin decrease of 140 basis points at the midpoint. Again, negatively impacted by the aforementioned headwinds of working days and the ERP transition. On slide 12, we outline the key drivers of our anticipated year-over-year adjusted earnings per share growth for 2026. Moving from left to right, we estimate contribution from operating performance will contribute about three cents per share. Importantly, this estimate is net of anticipated cost associated with our ERP implementation in Europe and footprint optimization activities. The weaker U.S. dollar is anticipated to yield favorable translation benefit of approximately $0.04 per share. Tax, interest, share count, and other items net to $0.01 of adjusted earnings per share contribution. I will now turn the call back to Ivo.
Thank you, Brooks. On slide 13, we show our assumptions for end markets for 2026. Relative to 2025, we believe most of our end markets will be flat to up in 2026. Specifically, we estimate end markets that represent almost 80% of our sales should grow this year, including improved demand dynamics for our industrial off-highway and diversified industrial end markets. We believe these end markets have troughed and anticipate some recovery in 2026. Furthermore, we expect stable demand for automotive OEM and industrial on-highway in 2026. We continue to expect auto aftermarket and personal mobility market demand to remain constructive in 2026 in general we believe our business will have some market tailwinds this year as a reminder this would be the first time in about three years that our business would be experiencing end market support with that let me provide some closing thoughts on slide 14. First, 2025 was a record year for our company. We generated record annual adjusted EBITDA dollars and adjusted earnings per share, and reduced our net leverage ratio to under two times. We delivered these results in what we believe was dropping demand environment to some of our key end markets. Second, with more demand stability, we are optimistic about 2026 top-line potential. While our book-to-bill was solidly above one time exiting 2025, and we are realizing improved order rates to start the year, we remain pragmatic this early in the year. Third, that said, while we are incrementally optimistic about our near-term growth prospects, we do not anticipate a short recovery in 2026. Third, we are highly focused on our key strategic revenue initiatives to generate market outgrowth. We continue to invest resources in personal mobility and data center markets in which we expect to increase our market share through the end of the decade we anticipate both verticals to grow at significantly higher rates than our fleet average while we are intent on driving attractive core growth our balance sheet is well positioned to support potential inorganic growth opportunities that may become available before taking your questions i want to thank all of our Global Gates Associates for their effort and commitment supporting our customers' needs and helping make 2025 a successful year for Gates. With that, I will now turn the call back over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue and if you'd like to withdraw that question again press star one we also ask that you limit yourself to one question in one follow-up for any additional questions please re-queue and your first question comes from the line of andy kaplowitz with citigroup please go ahead good morning everyone good morning Andy, can we delve into your commentary a little more regarding that book-to-bill over one in Q4 in January or orders conferring that trend?
As you know, we've kind of seen green shoots before and they haven't fully developed. So maybe you can give us a little more color on what's driving your order acceleration. Would you call it more broad-based? And have you seen your aftermarket distributors stock destocking, which you said was happening in Q4 yet?
Yeah, Andy, thank you. Look, we've actually seen probably the most positive ordered trend exiting 2025 in maybe two or three years. And in general, you know, when I kind of look, as you know, I have a reasonably good tenure here. As I look through my past two cycles, I think, that we have seen here, you have to see recovery in industrial OE segment. that in general leads the other end markets or the other applications where we participate. And so this was the first time that we have seen in a while that we have seen a reasonably nice recovery, a very strong recovery in order trends in the industrial OE. So that was a very positive sign for us. You know, I would say that, you know, both, you know, I think that the end markets in the off-highway are stabilizing, and, you know, we are clearly seeing a nice outperformance over those markets. In Q4, we did see kind of a choppiness in the, particularly in the industrial distribution. I think that folks were kind of exiting the year trying to manage their inventories. Nothing that I would say was disconcerting to me, but I would anticipate a little better recovery as we progress through Q1 to Q2 in the industrial aftermarkets in particular. In January, we've kind of seen continuation of that trend of what we have seen exiting 2025. So as I said in the prepared remarks, we are cautiously optimistic. To your point, Andy, I would like to see PMI, you know, a few months north of 50. As you said, we have seen that head fake both years in 24 and in 25, so hopefully we will be seeing that validation of that PMI activity, and we can confirm ultimately over the next couple of months that that's occurring, and I think that would bode really well, particularly for the latter parts of the year as we progress through the year. So, cautiously optimistic. I would say that, you know, based on what we have seen so far, you know, should indicate, should bode well for 2026.
Ivo, that's helpful, and I just want to go back to Q4 for a minute. your adjusted EBITDA margin was down a little bit sequentially on flattest sales. I know you mentioned mix. Maybe it was just aftermarket D-stock. Was there anything else that sort of hit you there, you know, difficult price cost, any sort of dynamics there? Because I think you mentioned mix, too, for Key4.
Yeah, I would say the other thing is, you know, we managed our output, you know, as we exited the year, and we were really focused on, you know, know, making sure that we had our working capital positions in a good position as we exited the year. So we trimmed our production output, you know, that resulted in better than forecasted cash flow as we ended up over 90%, you know, a little bit over 92%, and, you know, our best leverage metrics ever, and also we bought back, you know, $105 million worth of stock in Q4. So it was really around managing, you know, our internal output and setting ourselves up, you know, to make sure that we had a good, strong start to 2026.
Yeah, Brooks, that's what I thought.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. Maybe just wanted to try and understand sort of the phasing of the year a little bit more clearly. So first quarter, I think, is something like 20% of the EBITDA for the year, and you've obviously got a lot of the ERP and footprint headwinds loaded into that. Trying to understand kind of how you're thinking about the second quarter, you know, could we expect organic growth in that quarter? Is that what's embedded? And maybe I missed it, but any sense of kind of the first half of the year, how much of EBITDA that should be? I think often it's about 50%, but realize this year has some first-half dynamics going on.
Yeah, Julian, so if you think about it in halves, you know, we have about 100 BIPs net headwind, you know, kind of in the first half of the year relative to, you know, relative to the ERP implementation and the footprint optimization. So, you know, you kind of think about it in pieces, right? We kind of have the, you know, the 50 bips, 150 bips midpoint in Q1. So that would lead you to, you know, kind of be 50 bips midpoint in Q2. I would say that, you know, once we go through Q1, you know, given that our midpoint is 250 bips of core growth, you should expect organic core growth each quarter as we move through the year. And as we look at our seasonalization, it's pretty balanced. It's pretty balanced for the year. So I would expect, you know, we're going to be less. I mean, if you take that 100 dips and apply it, you know, absent that, you know, you're going to have the, you know, you have two less shipping days in the first half, you know, versus the second half. And so that's going to affect it a little bit. But absent the 100 dips of Headwind, you know, pretty normalized split between the front and the back.
Okay, got it. So the first half is maybe like a high 40 share of the year's EBITDA or something. Exactly. And then just to follow up, you know, Ivo, you mentioned data center exposure a couple of times. Understandably, I think sales, you said, were up 4X last year. So maybe just flesh out kind of what is the dollar kind of revenue base in your data center exposure, or kind of what are the products you're doing the best in, and do you have any sense of kind of backlog there or growth expectations in revenue for the year ahead in data center, please?
Yeah, look, we anticipate that the business in 26, again, is going to grow multiples of 2025. You know, that being said, you know, we see obviously a very nice adoption of the liquid cooling, and we anticipated that's going to be there for an extended period of time. Our products, again, to remind everybody, are, you know, hoses, couplings, fittings, and water pumps. I think that we see a nice penetration across all three of these product lines that we offer. And, you know, we've kind of flushed that $100 to $200 million target there for 28. And I think that, as I've indicated last year, we should see nice progression through 26 into 27, you know, to ultimately reach that, you know, that target by 28. So everything that I see today, Julian, gives me reasonably good level of confidence that we are getting a fair share. I think that I've indicated that, you know, if I just think about orders as an example, in Q4, sequentially our orders grew 350 percent. And year on year, our orders grew nearly 700 percent. So, you know, we are seeing, A, the pipeline being built up nicely. We are seeing good conversion. And, yes, you know, it was from a reasonably small base last year or the year prior to that as well. But that's ramping up nicely. And, you know, again, it's not going to be, you know, two or three points of revenue as a percent of our total revenue pie. That's going to take, you know, a couple more years, maybe through 2028. But, you know, we feel pretty good about where we sit and we see a nice ramp up. But, look, we also have, you know, we also have a very, you know, very terrific presence in all of our businesses. And so I think that that's just going to be a nice contribution to above market growth rate. Great. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Tomo Sanyo with J.P. Morgan Chase. Please go ahead.
Tomo
Analyst — J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Good morning, everyone.
Tomo
Analyst — J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to ask about personal mobility. It was up 28% in Q4. How sustainable is this into 2026? Could you give us more color of key demand product and supply drivers as well as the cost of parities from the customer perspective.
Yeah, thank you for your question, Tomo. That business, you know, has been doing outstanding, you know, it's been performing in an outstanding fashion for us in 2025. What we have indicated is that we anticipate that business is going to continue to grow high 20s, kind of a 30% compound annually through 2028. And we certainly have an incredibly high degree of confidence that we will continue to do that. We see a continuation of very strong trends. Our pipeline has been very robust. We've been converting that pipeline, you know, as we demonstrate through our invoiced revenue. And now it's becoming, again, a meaningful part of our revenue contribution. So we have a high degree of confidence that that business will continue to grow. And as you're driving adoption of electrified mobility, two-wheel mobility, that is extremely well-suited for changing that technology from chain to belt. So we feel that you know, that's a great business for a very, very long time, a very long horizon of future visibility.
Tomo
Analyst — J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Thank you. And follow up on a net leverage and I'm on a pipelines and strategies, please. So if you could talk about the net leverage perspectives into 2026 and any opportunities for inorganic growth, which is a mandate for being in the peace or the bolt-on acquisitions, or are you thinking about more platform types of acquisitions, Yeah.
Look, I would remind everybody that in this metric, we are quite nicely ahead of what we've committed to the shareholders in terms of the leveraging. I'll also say that the business, the cash generation profile and the profitability of this business is so terrific that we, in a natural way, deliver about half a turn a year, so that can give you some perspective of what the range of leverage could be as we exit 2026. That being said, coming back to M&A, look, we don't anticipate that we would be doing any type of transformational M&A. We do have a significantly increased appetite to execute logical and non-transformational M&A. You know, that may be, you know, businesses that could be nice bolt-ons, and, you know, there are things out there that we are looking at today, and there could be businesses that could be of more scale, while non-transformational, they, you know, they could be nicely additive to our portfolio. So, we're looking at full spectrum. We'll be very pragmatic. We also believe that our stock is quite inexpensive. So, we will be very carefully measuring the returns where we can generate the best value creation for our shareholders. And we'll be very, very committed to deploy our capital in a way that rewards our shareholders.
Tomo
Analyst — J.P. Morgan Chase & Company
Thank you, Elo.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Dean Dre with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Operator
Good morning, everyone.
Good morning, Dean. Hey, can we just circle back on the footprint optimization? I know you've given us your assumptions, but could you remind us on either the number facilities, or what percent of your manufacturing square footage these actions represent?
Yeah, well, you know, from a facilities perspective, you know, including, you know, manufacturing and, you know, distribution, you know, it's kind of, you know, in the single digits kind I mean, we're still working through that. And, you know, from a manufacturing footprint perspective, I don't have that right in front I mean, so I'd have to go back and check on that. I will tell you, you know, we feel better as we look at the different cost actions we're taking relative to the footprint optimization and the restructuring and getting our costs We feel better about where we are in terms of the cost out. And if anything, you know, remember we said we were going to have $10 million year-over-year savings in the back half of 26, and then another $10 million in the first half of 27, probably feel better about the upside related to that as we look at the cost actions we're taking and kind of how things are unfolding. So I would say, you know, when you look at our target, you know, probably upside and sooner rather than later in terms of achieving that target. And we'll be in a better position kind of midway through 26, I think, to talk about that in more detail um in terms of where we are and what we're doing as opposed to where we are right now because there's still a lot of things that we have to announce and things we have to talk to different people about so um but but net net we feel uh we feel good about where we are right now in terms of uh you know the whole savings uh that we communicated uh to y'all all right that's that's helpful i appreciate that and then as a follow-up can you brooks can you talk about what the upgraded S&P does for you?
Is there an interest save that we might see? And then related to it, just a really good quarter on free cash flow conversion, but this is seasonally your strongest free cash flow quarter. Is there any opportunity to level out the free cash flow? I know there's some seasonal aspects, but you just remind us because instead of having the hockey stick in 4Q. Thanks.
Yeah. So on the S&P look, I think on the one hand, you always hope that there's some upside when you get upgraded. On the other hand, when you look at the way our debt trades and you look at how people pile into our debt when we either issue new term loans or we reprice or anything like that, I wonder if we don't trade through a lot of that, and we end up getting really good interest rates and really good participation. So I don't know that we would get, you know, I don't know what the actual impact of that would be, but what we would expect, if anything, there'd be some upside to what's already really good trading in terms of our debt. on the second part of your question you know part of the issue is because we're seasonal in terms of usually our sales in the in the first half a lot of the working capital kind of comes through in the second half and and that's why you see that hockey stick on the working capital you know we get you know more sales in the first half and more collections uh and things like that in the second half so we're always trying to get more seasonal in terms of or we're trying to get more normalized in terms of our working capital, but I'm not sure how much upside there is to that, to be honest with you.
Dean, let me maybe chime in a couple of more points in here, right? So, vis-a-vis SAP implementation, you know... S&P. S&P. Yeah, in terms of bringing...
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Hammond with KeyBank. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, guys. Good morning, Jeff. Good morning, Jeff. Just on this ERP noise, I think third quarter you said $30 million to $35 million. One, is that unchanged? And then just is that inclusive of the revenue disruption, or is that additive? And, you know, how much revenue disruption do you think you have in the first half all in?
Yeah, well, I think most of the revenue disruption is going to be in Q1. And then we kind of, you know, get it back as we go through the balance of the year. You know, the $30 to $35 million is really kind of the all-in cost, you know, without the revenue in there, right? That's just the cost headwind. And that's like the 100 BIPs of that that's flowing through adjusted EBITDA. And so if you think of 100 BIPs in the first half, that also includes footprint optimization, so it's not all ERP. You know, in the first half, that'd be kind of approximately 20 million. And then there's about 10 or 15 million that's, you know, restructuring and add back that's in the first half as well. So that's where that 30 to 35 million number comes back. About 20 of it, you know, kind of flowing through the adjusted EBITDA number in terms of higher SG&A inefficiencies, stuff that you can't necessarily add back, and then the $10 to $15 million that you could add back. I would say, you know, also, you know, since we're talking about that, you know, our launch has gone better than planned, I would say. You know, we're pretty conservative and pragmatic in terms of how we look at things. But, you know, our plants are making what they need to make. You know, we're working out the parameters in terms of the front to back and, you know, we're getting the right signals sent to the plants to produce stuff for the distribution centers. I would say right now, you know, what we're really working on is tweaking some of the kind of external stuff. When you think about, you know, advanced shipping notices to customers and different things like that, we're just tweaking that a little bit to get them aligned with kind of a standard SAP functionality. And so we're really pleased with the launch. We started off, we're making stuff, we're shipping stuff, and we feel really good about where we are with the SAP implementation right now.
Okay, great. I think auto aftermarket's been a pretty good trend for you guys. Just what are you seeing underlying there? Where do kind of channel inventories stand? And then when do you expect that we lap this kind of new customer comp dynamic?
Yeah, so the markets aren't quite stable. We feel reasonably good about that. The cars are getting older. People are driving. The underlying economy is reasonably okay. So we feel very constructive about that market kind of being what it traditionally is outside of us acquiring a large customer like we did last year. So I think more green shoots than not. But in terms of lapping, we should be, you know, through that tough comp by the end of Q1. So basically from Q2 onwards, it should be more normalized. But, you know, let me remind you, I mean, we did, you know, we did see growth in aftermarket in Q4 as well, despite the fact that we had a, you know, reasonably tough comp.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Steve Volkman with Jeffries. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Just a couple of quick follow-ups, one short-term, one longer term. Any words of wisdom as we think about segment margins, both as we go through the transformation and the ERP and then sort of beyond that? Is there anything we should think about sort of first quarter and full year from the segment perspective?
Yeah, I don't know that. I mean, you know, some of the footprint optimization stuff is a little bit more weighted toward fluid power. But I would say some of the cost alignment stuff, some of the other restructuring we're doing, maybe a little bit more PT. So I don't know that there's a material difference in terms of how the margins are going to shake out. You know, I would say it's going to be pretty broad-based. And, you know, Agamia is a little bit more PT, and so there will probably be a little bit more headwind on PT in the first half, and then I'll come back in the second half in terms of how the ERP project will play out.
So maybe a little bit more of the headwinds on PT, but then it will equal out the second half. okay great and then maybe longer term you know you obviously you guys have been on a successful sort of long-term journey here in order to get margins where you want them it feels like we're almost to the finish line and maybe second half of of 26 is um sort of the finish line i don't know correct me if you think i'm wrong but i guess i'm curious sort of what's next after that Do you become more acquisitive? Do you focus more on growth? Is it kind of a compounder story from there? How do you vision the company once you kind of get where you want to be on margin?
Yeah, thank you for the question. It's very thoughtful, Steve. Look, let me kind of start with the journey a little bit, right? So if I look back and let's just kind of presume that we have dropped and we are exiting the down cycle here. I certainly believe that that's the case. Again, I'm not going to forecast where it's going to completely rebound, but let's just presume that we have troughed and we're exiting the down cycle. We're exiting the down cycle with over 300 basis points of improved profitability versus the prior down cycle. So we have materially improved the quality of the company. We also believe that we have projects in play that will give us an ability to continue to drive profitability to the midterm target. And frankly, when I look at what we have been able to achieve in a very negative end market backdrop, we are nicely ahead what we've committed to the shareholders, despite the fact that, you know, the end markets have been very, very negative for the last three years. So that gives me a high degree of confidence that, you know, we have a nice way to go beyond what we have committed in terms of profitability with the improvements that we continue to do structurally to this business. Now, put it aside, we have nicely improved our balance sheet. We're generating a ton of free cash flow that gives us a ton of optionality. I think that when you listen to some of the things that Brooke said about how well we have executed on the erp implementation i think that when we have a decent plan in place we execute well and we manage to execute well despite many different impediments that are unplanned that we have to absorb so i i think that we we now have an optionality to go in and start adding nice pieces to our portfolio that we have within Gates and, you know, drive synergies with potential M&A transactions that would give us the opportunity to get to our company fleet averages. So in a nutshell, Steve, I think that it's a little bit all of the above. I think that we can continue to drive profitability forward on a structural basis. I believe that the incremental capacity that our balance sheet offers us now, and we were very patient to get to this point in time, gives us the opportunity to add different assets in, improve those assets, and start compounding earnings on forward-going basis.
Great. I appreciate it. Thanks, Steve.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Mike Halloran with Baird. please go ahead.
Hey, good morning, everyone. Just a quick follow-up to the first half of that last question there. So, how do you think about what your incremental margins look like once you get through the ERP consolidation and you hit a more normal run rate for growth?
Well, so – well, it's – I'm struggling to figure out what normal is. So, in the – after we get to the ERP implementation, you know, we ought to be, as we're working through, you know, the footprint optimization and restructuring stuff, stuff, you know, we ought to be at an enhanced level of drop-through, you know, 45% plus, you know, over about a 12-month period, okay? Now, through the cycle, you know, what we've said is we think that the drop-through should be more like 35%. And the reason being is you're definitely going to mix toward more OEM type business through the cycle as you kind of go to the upside or as you go to kind of the, you know, the core growth increase. And that's why it's a little bit less, you know, than you might otherwise think, right? You might think more like, you know, 40, but you're definitely going to mix to the OEM side, which is going to be a little bit lower from a gross margin perspective. And it's got some better cash flow characteristics, but from a margin perspective, that's where it probably is. And then as you move through the cycle, you know, that can flex a little bit up and down. But I would say, you know, second half of 26 through the first half of 27, you're going to be 45% plus. And then after that, more normalized basis, you know, 35 on the low end, you know, maybe moving up to 40, depending on what the mix is.
That's great. Super helpful. And then just a question on how you're thinking about the year here. If you adjust for the first quarter, the 500 basis points between those two items, are you assuming relatively normal seasonality if you adjust for those factors? It doesn't sound like you're embedding some sort of improvement of scale in the revenue build to the year. So maybe just talk about what those assumptions look like.
Yeah, that's the right way to think about it. But, you know, Mike, we have, you know, we've quantified the headwinds associated with fewer shipping days in Q1 and some of the efficiency losses due to the ERP implementation. Again, we feel better about the ERP implementation, but, you know, you still need to improve efficiency and get everybody comfortable operating in a new structure. Once that normalizes it from Q3 through Q4, it's more normalized. You will gain back one day, one calendar day, you know, in a Q4 versus kind of the loss of two days in Q1. So more or less normal calendar. Great. Appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Jerry Rivage with Wells Fargo. please go ahead.
Yes, hi. Good morning, everyone. I want to ask, just given the improved demand environment, if we do see sales move towards above the high end of your guided range, how would you counsel us to think about operating leverage in that scenario?
I think that Brooks just highlighted that, Jerry, about 45% plus incremental leverage on the back app on the incremental revenue.
Yeah, and that's really kind of the footprint optimization and restructuring flowing through on top of the kind of 35% normal leverage. But, you know, if we were to see things move more towards the high end, it's going to be very OEM-based. It's going to be pickup in the industrial OEM side of things where you start to see those things start to rebound. Like I said, a little bit lower margin profile there, but still pretty nice. Got it.
That's constructive. And then in terms of where lead times stand today, you mentioned the year reorders. How far out are we from a lead times standpoint? How does that compare versus other periods of time where demand was equally tight? Can you just give us a perspective? And can you just talk about, for the industrial replacement side, it feels like we're seeing a really strong desire to restock across end markets there. Is that part of the driver of the order acceleration that you step through? Any additional color there would be helpful?
Yeah, look, I think that I've indicated that the significant inversion in order uptake that we have seen was predominantly on the OE side. presently on the industrial OE side. So we are seeing that our lead times are still normal. We haven't seen any creep up at this point in time. Obviously, we are in a very good position vis-a-vis our capacity. We have been improving the business in the last three years, spending capital to ensure that we can capitalize on the upcycle when it comes. I would say that we need to see the industrial distributors want to restock but I would also say that in general they are quite late to the party and my anticipation would be you know we should start seeing that more maybe in q2 of this year if history serves as a guide um so you know we are we are well positioned again we have trimmed our working capital exiting q4 we've positioned ourselves for a maximum benefit uh as the recovery stakeholders. Thanks, Jared.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of Nigel Koh with Wolf Research. Please go ahead.
Good morning, guys. We've got a lot of ground here, so here you guys. So just maybe just kind of piggybacking off that previous question. You laid out your end market assumptions, Evo.
And I'm just wondering, you know, when we look at the industrial off-highway on highway are you seeing any um you know difference between oe and aftermarket in your plan so right now we are seeing a nice inversion in the oe side you know again i would anticipate nigel that we will start seeing improvements in in the industrial aftermarket kind of into our second quarter of this year but it gives me a great deal of confidence i would say that But when you see that inversion, that's a very good sign. When you combine that with at least the very early indications on the PMI, while I'm not, you know, certainly ready to call it yet because we did have a couple of head fakes last couple of years, this is, you know, this feels better than in 24 and 25. And so we start getting a couple more data points on the PMIs, and I think, you know, things should work up pretty nicely for everybody in the industrial complex, case included.
I'm just curious if, you know, if you're baking in any sort of mixed headwinds for the year, you know, it doesn't sound like it is, but that'd be helpful. And then on the pricing, I'm sorry if I missed this in your prepared remarks, but what are you baking in for price contribution for the year? And then expanding that to the raw material basket, unlike a lot of the companies we cover, you're facing a whole lot of steel and base metal inflation. In fact, some of your raw materials should be a little bit deflationary or flat. So I'm just curious how you view in the price cost equations of the year.
Yes. Oh, no, no. Okay. So, yeah, I think, look, we've got some carryover, you know, tarot pricing that's still in. I mean, you know, but pricing is going to be relatively low, you know, kind of, you know, 100 to 150 bips for the year. You know, one thing that we're, you know, we look at, you know, you look at tariffs, you look at utilities, you look at material. But also, you know, you've heard me talk about labor inflation as well, right, and especially around the world where you see kind of outsized labor inflation. So we take all those into account, but right now things are fairly stable, and so, you know, we feel like we've got, you know, things covered from a pricing perspective, but it's relatively, you know, it's relatively normalized, maybe a little bit less than normal, given the state of things right now.
And, you know, Nigel, maybe I'll just, you know, pin something in here, too. You know, we've done quite a bit of work on raw material improvements over the last couple of years that has nicely supported our improvement, structural improvement in the business. You know, that's not going to stop. So we're going to continue to drive that and continue to position ourselves into a position of strength and better profitability as we move into 26 and 27.
Operator
Your next question comes from the line of David Rasso with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Yeah, I was just curious. Currency in the guide. I'm just trying to figure out what the overall margin guide is. with the EBITDA number. Are you including about 2% of currency? So we're looking at 4.5% total sales growth?
A little less than that, David. It's like a point and a half or thereabouts. I mean, it's the first half.
Yeah, it's very weighted in the first half. And in the second half, it kind of normalizes out. So, you know, let me kind of find my currency stuff here. Yeah, so from a – if you think about it from a translation perspective, you know, it's a little bit, you know, kind of 125 bps for the year, but weighted much more in the first half. So, 125 bps in terms of – in terms of kind of growth.
Following up on the comment about pricing 100, 150 bps, I mean, it's implying volume up only 1%. And, again, I appreciate early year being conservative on extrapolating trends. But, I mean, if personal mobility is up 30%, that's 1% growth for the entire company. So I'm just trying to understand, is it just, hey, we're just, you know, being cautious in the beginning? Or is there some other area of decline? You know, obviously I'm basing a little bit on slide 13. You only have one market that's down, right, energy and resources. And I'm just trying to just understand the level of conservatism in the top line.
Yeah, David, I think that you have framed it correctly. You know, I will restate what I said earlier, right? We have seen a couple of head fakes in 24 and 25. While I do feel we as a management team feel better when you look backwards into how things progress when you do have a recovery, the signs are very positive, but we are very pragmatic in our outlook for the start of the year. Again, we have only seen one PMI print that, you know, that has given us, I think, all of us a nice degree of boost in confidence that things are going to improve. We are seeing that follow through through our industrial orders. Some of these markets are, you know, reasonably well-behaved. Personal mobility is doing really well. You stated it correctly. So, you know, we are more constructive on these end markets. But, you know, there are some markets that, you know, there are question marks, right? What will happen without an OE? I mean, I, you know, I think that, you know, that's probably going to be somewhat of a headwind overall when you take a look at the consumer, the, you know, the pricing, you know, the timing of recovery. You know, while we are, again, you know, we are more positive on those end markets, you know, it will not happen on January 15th, right? It will not happen on February 2nd. Some of these markets are going to be progressing through a rolling recovery. And so while we are positive, we are being pragmatic. And, you know, I would much rather let you know in the next earnings call or the one thereafter that, you know, we are seeing terrific improvement and great fall through. And I think everybody is going to be much happier about that.
And I will remind you, we have one less shipping day in 26 than we did in 25.
All right. I appreciate that. Thanks, David.
Operator
That concludes our question and answer session. I will turn it back over to Rich Quast for closing comments.
Thanks, everyone. Thanks, everyone, for your interest in Gates. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to touch base with me. Have a great day and rest of the week.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.
