Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) September 2026 Conference Transcript

Good morning. Welcome back. Day two. I hope everybody is properly hydrated and ready for another long day. We're really excited to have with us Mondelez International back at our conference. So thanks so much for being here. And with us this morning, we have COO Luca Zaramella, CFO Amit Benati. Welcome to you both. Thank you. Maybe we maybe we kick it off, Luca, with you. Mondelez has come through a pretty anomalous, you know, several years, extreme volatility in cocoa, which also necessitated a few years of, you know, sizable consecutive pricing, not to mention a broadly challenging consumer environment, all wrapped up in impacts from Middle East conflicts. While still a very dynamic macro theater, it seems as though perhaps you're getting closer to a more, you know, I won't say normal, but maybe more stable operating environment. And as you think out towards 2027 and beyond, you've continued to express confidence in the 3% to 5% organic sales algorithm and high single-digit constant currency EPS over time.

I guess what gives you the most confidence today that that algorithm is still intact and what has changed in the business maybe the past few dynamic years that you think makes the algorithm more durable? so yeah it has been a few years that have been quite eventful i would say but we learn a lot of things along along the way the first thing we learn is that we compete in categories that are very resilient i would have never thought that we would have taken post-covid all the pricing we took and with minimal i would say in the big scheme of things volume implication so So that's really the first learning. We continue to see snacking as a great trend in food, particularly in emerging markets. Snacking is the place to be. And within snacking, I personally believe chocolate is one of the best categories. It's not the best because I think there is a special bond between our brands and consumers in general. And it is tough to see for consumers to switch from chocolate to something else. Biscuits is another big opportunity for us. It's a great category. And when we step back and we look at both chocolate and biscuits, A, on chocolate we have tremendous opportunities in terms of growing penetration of our brands. In emerging markets, we have clear examples of what chocolate can be, but we are not consistently developed across all emerging markets. And so when you take aside India and Brazil, you see plenty of opportunities in establishing chocolate consumer behaviors. Biscuits, on the other side, we are blessed with a brand like Korea, which is $5 billion globally. But reality is, again, in many places we have share opportunities that are tremendous, so ample runways. And how we do that is through the muscle of distribution in emerging markets. In developed markets, I think in places like Europe, Chocolate has shown us with Biscoff that there is a space between where we play in mainstream and in upper mainstream, where we have the right to play with our brands, call it Milka or Cadbury. And so the premiumization trend is a clear one. Elevating the indulgence is a clear trend that we see. And again, Mondelez has the right to play in there. And finally, the U.S., where, yes, there are some challenges, particularly driven by the fact that there is some economic strains in the consumer environment. But reality is, again, brands like Coria, Reeds, Belvita, et cetera, we have tremendous opportunity. We are starting to play more in channels that are beyond the food and mass. And so when we put all of this together, we couple with the fact that we are investing heavily in our brands, in capabilities, in route to market, in digital, I believe Mondelez has what it takes to really deliver that algorithm. And to complete the analysis, I would say, from a profitability standpoint, big initiatives like the supply chain program that we have for the U.S. and part of Europe will deliver incremental earnings and fuel for growth.

Amit, maybe for you, the decision to raise your top-line outlook while maintaining your EPS guide struck us as an important signal. I think it suggests that if the business continues to outperform, your bias may be towards reinvesting behind momentum rather than harvesting all of the near-term profit. Can you talk about that philosophy a bit? Specifically, what are the opportunities you're seeing today that make reinvestment a more attractive use of the incremental profit dollars rather than simply maximizing earnings in the near term?

Yeah, so we've been consistent that we are going to invest the upside back into the business, into areas that are working. And, you know, we see a lot of opportunities, a number of opportunities where we can fuel more investment. I think it's also important to note that we've absorbed all the incremental costs related to the Middle East conflict within our guide. And those costs are not insignificant. So we've absorbed that. I think in terms of opportunities, you know, we want to invest back into areas that are working. So emerging markets where we've got momentum, increased distribution, investment behind our big brands, investment in innovation you know in specific areas like growth channels Luca was mentioning we have an opportunity in growth channels in the US so investing there you know to get the opportunity investing in innovation that's working you know the Biscoff partnership is working really well both across chocolate and biscuits you know innovation Milka Croissant in Europe Sarpat Chews in the US Gum in Latin America so you know really fueling the innovation that's working in the marketplace and scaling that up. And then finally, I think investing back in ANC behind our big brands into big markets. So really, our view is these reinvestments will drive volume-led top-line growth across multiple years.

Luca, you know, the North America segment has gone from one of the larger debates around the stock to arguably one of the more encouraging parts of the story. What's changed most meaningfully over the past 12 months, whether it be promotional strategy, innovation, channels, or price pack architecture? And I guess why should investors believe the improvement in North America is sustainable, maybe rather than a function of easier comps or just elevated spending in the near term?

There are fundamentally four things that have changed significantly over the last, I would say, 12 months or so. The first one is we fixed our promotional strategy. We came to terms last year that investing more in promotions was not necessarily resulting in incrementality and it was depleting the value of the category. So we decided to restage our promotional activities both in terms of depth and frequency and being more intentional on what we do to drive incrementality. And the strategy is paying off. I think the sales team in the U.S. has done an amazing job in making sure that that promotional strategy is executed with excellence. The second element is we have accelerated channels growth where we have opportunities. We undershare significantly in some of the channels like value clubs and I would say in general away from home and convenience. And those are opportunities for us, and the team has been very intentional in going after these opportunities, particularly with new formats and new price points. The third thing is, quite frankly, we have reinvested much more this year than last year. Last year, we all know we were impacted in terms of earnings because of COCO, and we were on a much tighter rope in terms of opportunities to invest. This year there is consistent investment with excellent media around all our core brands. And the fourth element, it is innovation. I think the team stepping back has really seized the opportunities in places like Reeds or a brand like Reeds, whereby Reeds has been moved more towards munching and, for me, consumption occasions. And the fact that we have great opportunities in that area, that is quite incremental. is resulting in incremental growth, incremental share. If you look closely at the share gains we had with REITs and you realize what is really working on the core and on this incremental innovation, you really see a model that is working. And we have just started. And so I think there are plenty of opportunities to really push all this innovation out there. And it's not only REITs. It is oil where minis, again, in the area of munching, is an important platform, or zero in the case of Oreo, but also in cases like Sour Patch Kids. And there is more to come. We have a full relaunch plan on some of our core brands that is coming into 2027. And so all those four things coming together have resulted in better results for North America. And I think those are sustainable things.

Amit, despite the improved results in North America, The category tailwinds have still remained somewhat muted. What do you think about winning, you know, within a more sluggish category environment? You know, that is, if U.S. snacking demand remains subdued, can Mondelez still grow consistently and sustainably in North America through share gains, channel exposure, and innovation? Or does the category ultimately need to improve for that to be more sustainable?

No, I think we are confident that, you know, we can continue to grow even if the category remains subdued. I think a lot of the drivers of that growth will be what Luca mentioned because a number of them are multi-year plays. So when you think about the opportunity to expand in channels that are growing, that's a multi-year play. When you look at out-of-home consumption, when you look at the opportunity that we have in scaling up offerings in Better For You, Oreo Zero Sugar, Oreo Gluten-Free, premium indulgence with Tates, with Oreo thins, you know, the whole protein offerings and snack bars. So I think, you know, we're executing well this year, but a lot of those drivers, right, are multi-year drivers, and we have plenty of opportunity to really maximize that opportunity. A big part of our modernization of the supply chain is to create the flexibility to allow us to access, you know, those opportunities across channels and occasions. So I think that will be an important driver for growth across multiple years. Obviously, innovation is always going to be important. Consumers want bold, differentiated innovation. And I think when you think about brands like Oreo or Sour Patch Kids, they absolutely have the right to win there. I think we've learned a lot with some of the activations that we've done. I think we've got an opportunity to continue to excite consumers, surprise them. with partnerships with cultural icons or different brands and I think you know we've learned that consumers love that you know they love these different combinations and I think we have the brand that can really activate against those and then finally as Luca was mentioning right we are back in terms of investing behind our big brands also continuing to scale awareness and that along with you know big differentiated in-store activations I think will allow us to win a bigger share of the basket. So, you know, we feel that we have a number of growth drivers that will allow us to continue to drive growth, you know, despite the category being subdued.

Luca, maybe shifting to Europe, you've pointed to improving volume trends, improving share trends, and better execution across the region. Beyond simply lapping some of the pricing actions, I guess, what are the structural drivers that give you confidence Europe can become a more balanced volume and profit growth story again?

So when we look at the European performance over a prolonged period of time, particularly before the material price increases we took last year, Europe was a good business in terms of both growth in terms of top line and bottom line. And fundamentally, despite the fact that there has been a stage of chocolate volume because of the material pricing we took, those fundamentals are still intact. Again, we are very proud of the business that we have in the UK. We are very proud of the business we have in the emerging part, emerging market parts of Europe, the likes of Poland. We are very proud of all the other businesses we have. And yes, there are some challenges, particularly with some of the retailers that we all know. But when you step back and you look at the fundamentals of chocolate, those are still intact. What Biscoff, with our chocolate brands of Cadbury and Milka, is showing us is that we have the right to win in a space that is more elevated than the regular Milka and Cadbury propositions that we have, which are great. We still have ample opportunities in seasonals. We don't play consistently across all the countries in seasonal. We have opportunities in terms of Choco Bakery, for instance, mixing our chocolate brands with our Biscuit brand. I mean, we created massive businesses in places like Germany by being deliberate on what we wanted to do with Milka Choco Bakery. And that's a model that we haven't replicated yet in places like the UK. Biscuits is another big opportunity. In terms of share, we have some stronghold, the likes of France, the likes of Belgium. But the reality is in most of the places in Europe in Biscuits, we don't have a share that crosses the 10% or 15% threshold. And so being more deliberate as to what we do with Oreo or some of our other brands that we have, I think still is a great opportunity. And then the adjacencies. The Cipita acquisition is something that has shown us that we have the right to play in cakes and pastries. And Milka Croissant is one example. It is a meaningful business. It is growing. And we are about to roll it out in more places in Europe. And Bars is the other one. Grenade was a great acquisition, but again, we kept it for the time being only to the UK. So when you look at the opportunities we have and the muscle we have in sales and marketing specifically to really develop further our categories and our brands, Europe is clearly a place that can deliver growth. I mentioned briefly before that the supply chain is improvable, and we are about to take a look at some of our big plans and big lines to modernize them and provide better costs and better profitability to some of our brands to be able to reinvest.

Luca, staying with you, what have you seen more recently in terms of competitive behavior in Europe, chocolate specifically? That was one of the initial watch-outs heading into this year, given how precipitously cocoa costs dropped following all the pricing that was taken the past year plus. And how should we think about the cocoa dynamic now versus where we were just a couple of years back?

So in terms of pricing, there is nothing really unexpected. And one of the things that we called out as a potential risk, which was private label lowering prices in some of the markets like Germany, we haven't seen that. And I think that is a clear outcome of the volatility we have seen as of late in the cocoa market. And so we have seen from private labels a promotional strategy or pricing that is very much in line with what has been, I would say, in the last 6 to 12 months. Likewise, for branded competitors, behaviors have been rational. And I would say we made some adjustments that were minor all in all last year to some of our pricing. And so did competitors. But in the big scheme of things, I would say pricing is holding up well. It is in line with what we expected. And certainly with cocoa, where it is these days, I think the level of pricing that we see is adequate in line with the pricing that we see. As far as it goes in terms of the cocoa market, look, the cocoa market is fairly nervous. I think there is an overreaction based on what happened a couple of years back. But fundamentally, there are a few things that are very clear. The first and the most important thing is that there is excess supply for the last couple of years. And it is not inconsequential in terms of the amount of it. So the market is oversupplied. And if you look at the last five years, what got made in the last couple of years is more than sufficient to cover the deficit that caused a stock depletion in the years before. Chocolate, again, is a great category, and before the pricing spikes, it was a category that used to grow volume to 3% per year at least. So fundamentally, the market is in a different place. I think there is obviously a concern about El Nino that is factored into the pricing of cocoa at this point in time. but again if we look at what happened with the meat crop that was fairly late last year or this year and the impact that it has on the main crop again the evolution of the main crop for the new season is pretty much in line with what we would expect it i think the all competitors are covered for at least 10 months or plus which is something that we haven't seen in a while so branded competitors have taken the opportunity to cover themselves up as we did in line with more of a historical norm. And so the market is in a very different place in terms of cocoa. Fundamentally when you look at supply and demand and you also consider the fact that outside of Africa many countries are growing double digit their supply. I think cocoa in terms of supply and demand for the years to come is in a much different situation and much better one.

Thank you for that. Amit, turning to emerging markets, they now represent roughly 40% of the business, continue to be one of Mondelez's strongest growth engines. In your view, what is still, I guess, relatively in early innings and what has already matured across key markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico, and China?

We've got good momentum in our emerging markets. We grew 4.4% in the quarter. Importantly, it was volume-led. And so, you know, I think when you look at our emerging markets portfolio, you know, we have plenty of runway for growth, both in the big four markets, China, India, Brazil and Mexico, which is roughly half of our emerging markets, as well as the other emerging markets. So, you know, we've got a lot of markets, right, in terms of growth opportunity. I think, you know, we've got a very strong competitive moat in our emerging markets. When you look at our portfolio of iconic brands, the scale in our RTM, in our route to market, you know, the strong, empowered local teams that we have, and the supply chain, the local supply chain, as well as R&D. So, you know, a very, very strong moat across our emerging market businesses. I think, you know, our categories are still very underpenetrated. of penetrated. So when you look at our core categories, we have significant headroom from a penetration standpoint, obviously opportunity to drive frequency, opportunity to premiumize the categories. So I think if you look at what we're doing with Cadbury Silk in India, for example, as we're leading the premiumization of the category, so you've got a number of avenues for multi-year growth on our categories. I think then from a distribution standpoint, also significant headroom. So even in China, you know, biscuits, we're probably in 3 million stores out of a universe of 6 million. In gum, a significant opportunity for distribution growth as well. And likewise in India, you know, we're probably reaching about 3 million out of a universe of 9 to 10 million. You know, Visi-Coolers, the units that we put, the chillers that we put in has been a significant driver of growth. And I think, you know, we have plenty of headroom. We've done a remarkable job in driving the vesicoolers, but we still have a lot of headroom to continue to drive that. And we know that that's a proven success model. It's a proven category builder. Similar opportunities in route to market in Brazil and Mexico, where we can leverage the Ricolino acquisition in traditional trade. So I think when you look at our big four markets, plenty of opportunities. We're going to continue to invest behind our brands, both in scaling up global brands like Oreo and Cadbury, but as well as investing behind the local jewels. And I think, you know, we're going to continue to invest in high growth channels, you know, whether it's snack stores in China, quick commerce in India. So and then I think from our focus on the next set of markets, Southeast Asia, we see opportunity there, Middle East and Africa. Andean and Central America, as well as South Central Europe. So, you know, those are the next set of emerging markets that, you know, we feel offer a significant opportunity. So I think, you know, when you put all of that together, you know, emerging markets, already a significant part of the company, but plenty of runway for growth across multiple years.

Luca, one innovation you've consistently highlighted recently is the partnership with Biscoff, which I have to admit was one of those ideas that, look, I get a lot of things wrong. This one I felt like was a winner the moment we first heard about it, so I'm happy that's working out. What strikes us is that the conversation increasingly sounds like this is a successful new platform that's really been a benefit for both parties. How do you think about the long-term opportunity for the partnership, and what characteristics, I guess, have convinced you that this has become something materially larger than a typical brand collaboration?

So first of all, this year alone, the Biscoff platform, both in chocolate and biscuit, is going to exceed $300 million in revenue. So I think you were right in saying it was... It was more than once. You have been in our interactions, but so you called it right. Look, it is a great brand. it is a brand that is uniquely positioned so it has a very crisp marketing proposition it is a brand that stands out in its uniqueness and the combination of Biscoff with our chocolate brands is really something that consumer love I was pleased to see that Cadbury & More has been quickly consumed out there unlike others that are out there So it is clearly something that is unique in terms of a consumer proposition. And we have learned over time that the combination of big brands that are top of mind for consumers is something that really hits the mark. so we see still plenty of opportunities because we are treating our chocolate propositions with Biscoff as not a line extension, as a new brand and so we want to support it, we want to have the right promotional elements we want to have the right visibility and importantly we are pacing ourselves because we have a pipeline of innovation that spans across three stages already. And so we know what we're going to do now, what we're going to do in a couple of years, and what we will do beyond that. And still, there is something that is to come that is going to be delicious for our consumers. In terms of Biscuit itself, we are very pleased with what the Indian team has done, and the partnership, again, is working well. We sold out the line that we put down in record time in literally six months. We're about to put down another line, and so the brand recognition is quite high. The fact that it is complementary to our existing portfolio of biscuits, clearly it's something that we like because it goes with incrementality. And importantly, this is a win-win collaboration for both us and Lotus. and so we are very pleased and look like India there might be other markets where we have the route to market muscle and the ability to develop biscuits. Importantly in our chocolate markets there are some where we haven't launched yet and so we are going to be seeing lacta and biscoff in Brazil beginning of next year and we will make a big splash for the Easter season with something that is again delicious and remarkable for our consumers. So off to a great start. I don't think there are many platforms out there that can deliver $300 million of incremental revenue. And there is some cannibalization of the base, but clearly the vast majority of BISCOV is resulting in elevated penetration, particularly among the young cohorts. And so we like it for so many reasons, and so does BISCOV, because obviously there is benefit for them too.

Ahmed, as we think about 27, the company has been consistent about its confidence in delivering strong earnings growth. When you think about what ultimately drives that confidence, is it primarily a commodity story, a volume story, one of productivity, or something else entirely?

So in other words, is it simply hedging, or are you also doing more work on the cost side and the demand generation side as well to ensure that sort of regardless of where COCO lands, you're well-positioned to achieve the strong EPS growth you've previously discussed? yeah so I you know we continue to believe we can drive strong EPS growth in in 27 you know we've got good line of sight into our costs across our commodity baskets but it's not just only about commodities right so I think we've been talking a lot about the reinvestments we're making in things that are working so you know and we're very focused in executing with excellence reinvesting and what's working to build the momentum for volume led top line growth in 27. I think, you know, from a supply chain productivity standpoint, a lot of focus on that. I think, you know, the supply chain modernization program in the U.S., we should start seeing benefits of that in 27. So that's going to be our driver. We're going to continue to be very disciplined from an overhead standpoint. And I think, you know, we're going to continue to reinvest back in our brands, back in digital capabilities, back in the route-to-market opportunities that we have because we continue to see plenty of growth opportunities across a number of platforms. So overall, I think we're working across all levers to drive both the top line as well as the bottom line. And I think we feel confident about delivering strong EPS growth in 27.

Luke, Oreo remains one of the most iconic brands in packaged food. You've discussed a broader Oreo relaunch initiative next year. What do you believe is the largest untapped growth opportunity for the brand today? And is there any way to frame what the size of the prize could ultimately look like around this coming relaunch?

So, Oreo is the star brand, I would say, across our portfolio. It is a brand that is reaching $5 billion in revenue. It is a brand that is growing mid-single digit this year. It is a brand that over a prolonged period of time, say the last five to ten years, has grown high single digit in terms of revenue. And it is a brand that has a unique positioning. And importantly, it has avenues of growth because from the core proposition of the Oreo cookie we have been able to establish businesses in terms of new flavors we have been able to establish businesses like minis or things or now zero or gluten-free so when you look at the full array of opportunities of oreo and the maturity curve of oreo across all the market there is plenty of opportunity in expanding the portfolio distribution etc it is a brand that we want to relaunch in 2027 and it is a 360 degree relaunch. It is more than logo change. We are going to improve the packaging of Oreo. We are going to have extensive PPA changes to hit more price points and to be able to provide access to the brand through different channels. We are going to have quality improvements. There is going to be in some cases new formulas that will result in better labels, but I don't want to spoil it because I think it will be a big splash in the marketplace and the teams around the world are thinking of activating the full relaunch in 2027 in a way that is going to really make a difference for the brand itself and for Mondelez. In terms of opportunities, what we are finding out, particularly in the markets where there is a high maturity level and penetration of oreo it is that propositions like oreo minis oreo things or oreo zero sugar they are really incremental and they tailor to a different cohort of consumers from where the brand is usually accessed and so we really like all of these and reality is we haven't done necessarily the best possible job consistently across the board in terms of developing all these propositions that are highly incremental. I think in terms of PPA, it is something that we have an opportunity. And again, when you look across the board, you span from markets that have a high penetration, a high share of Oreo. The best one is clearly China, where share is around about 20% for Oreo. Then you go to the U.S., we have a 10% share of the market, But the overwhelming majority of the market, Oreo has a share that is below 5%. And that's really a clear opportunity that points in the direction of the potential of the brand, particularly if we improve the formulation, if we improve the packaging, if we improve PPA, and certainly if we go back to the roots of Oreo and we continue to establish it as a brand where the ritual of twisting, licking, and dung is something that consumers love.

Good. All right, I'm going to squeeze in two last ones. Amit Mandelis has spent years reshaping the portfolio around chocolate biscuits and baked snacks. When you think about strategic M&A today, what would have to be true for a deal to be compelling enough to compete with reinvesting behind the existing business?

Yeah, so, you know, we have a lot of runway for growth in our existing categories. I think we have opportunities from a productivity standpoint as well, particularly in the supply chain. So that's obviously going to be top priority. I think from an M&A standpoint, I think we'll continue to invest behind high-growth platforms and capabilities in segments like Better for You, Protein, Premium Indulgence, I think expanding into adjacencies, cakes and pastries, for example, snack bars. And then I think from a geography standpoint, white spaces where we can buy scale and a platform that we can leverage to drive our categories and our brands. That's going to be the focus from an M&A standpoint. I think we run a very disciplined process with tight criteria against strategic fit and value creation potential. We've got a pretty good integration playbook in integrating these acquisitions and driving the synergy value capture. So, you know, that's going to be the focus from an M&A standpoint.

We've got about a minute left. Luca, maybe we wrap it up here. If you could leave investors with sort of one reason why you're more optimistic about Mondelez's future today, then let's say you were 18 months ago, what would it be?

Look, I think we went through quite a turbulent time in the last 18 months. But things are, I would say, stabilizing. I think Mondelez as a company, if you look at our historical track record, it is when big challenges come up, we have what it takes to overcome them and get, at the end, stronger, at the end of the spectrum. and I think the number one opportunity we have it is to invest in our brands to have our teams executing well day in, day out I believe we have the right strategy we have what it takes in terms of capabilities and we are putting the right investment for the long term into the system and so many of the things we are investing today they are going to bear fruit I think for the years to come and I'm really proud positive about the future of Mondelez, and again, time will tell if we are right, but I believe we are.

Luca, Amit, thanks for being with us here today. Appreciate it.

Thank you.