MRLN · Merlin, Inc.
$1.56
-0.15 (-8.77%)
At close · Oct 5
View the 10-Q filed May 15, 2026
Return incl. dividend (before tax)
Customer concentration
— key customers 90% of revenue
Key customers — 90% of revenue (the three months ended March 31, 2026)
“During the three months ended March 31, 2026 and 2025, the Company generated $1,002 and $868 in revenue, with a significant amount (> 90%) of this revenue coming from the U.S. government (refer to Note 4. Revenue Recognition from Contracts with Customers for further information).”
Market Cap
$201.12M
Shares
101.07M
Volume · Oct 5
3.18M
Avg daily vol (3M)
2.15M
Price & Indicators
20d MA
50d MA
200d MA
Earnings
Filing
Insider
Congress
Investor day
Close$1.71
Open$1.85
Day$1.70–1.85
52W close$1.71–16.09
Avg vol 30d3.0M
Short int10.5M · 10.4% float · 8.7d
Short vol53%
Last earningsAug 13, 2026
DataDec 2024–Oct 2026
Filing10-Q · Aug 14
Up next
filed Aug 14, 2026
call held Aug 13, 2026
Metrics snapshot
Useful current figures from the complete screener profile.
Revenue (TTM)
—
Trailing 12 months
Net income (TTM)
—
Trailing 12 months
Revenue growth YoY
—
Year over year
Operating margin
—
Trailing 12 months
P / E (TTM)
—
Trailing earnings
FCF yield
—
TTM · current market cap
Return on invested capital
—
Trailing 12 months
Net cash
—
Latest balance sheet
Dividend yield
—
Trailing 12 months
Shares change YoY
—
Year over year · more shares
Price change (1Y)
-83.6%
Trailing year
Short interest
10.4%
Latest settlement · 8.7 days to cover
AI Brief
Q2 FY26 earnings call · Aug 13, 2026
Q2 FY26
TL;DR. Merlin reported Q2 2026 revenue of $2.2 million, with $183.9 million in cash and no debt supporting runway into fiscal 2028, while guiding to $4-6 million in H2 2026 revenue and posting a $58.4 million GAAP net loss and a wider adjusted EBITDA loss of $27.8 million.
Bullish
- + Cash position of $183.9 million with no debt supports runway into fiscal 2028
- + Management guided to $4-6 million in H2 2026 revenue
- + Completed CDR on C-130J program, advancing to integration phase
- + Signed non-binding MOU with IAI to pursue ~2,400-aircraft global civil cargo market
- + Achieved SOI 3 certification milestone with New Zealand CAA, a first for large aircraft autonomy
- + Executed first fully autonomous landing at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh on a Cessna 208B Grand Caravan
Bearish
- − Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $27.8 million from $23.3 million in Q1
- − GAAP net loss of $58.4 million in Q2, with $148.8 million loss for the half
- − Cash flow from operations was negative $27.3 million in Q2
- − IAI agreement is non-binding and may not convert to a definitive commercial deal
From the call
AI-generated from the earnings call and 8-K · may contain errors · not investment advice
Equibles Rating
blended score · not investment adviceOverall
Strong Sell
SellHoldBuy
Technical
Sell
Momentum
Very Weak
Sentiment
Neutral
Fundamentals
Limited
Quant / Vol
Very High
Market backdrop
VIX 15.3 · calm
Equity put/call 0.58
Technical
price trend
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Price vs 200-day avg
−77%
below
Price vs 50-day avg
−45%
below
RSI (14)
30
neutral
MACD trend
Positive
52-week position
0%
near low
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
volume backs price
Momentum
relative strength
1-month return
−49%
trailing
6-month return
−85%
trailing
YTD return
−84%
this year
Relative strength
−98%
vs S&P · 6-mo
Sentiment
smart money
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $3 › 200d $7 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Accumulating
+117% holders QoQ · +45 funds added
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
10.43% of float · ▲ +6.5% MoM · 8.7 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
63 holders — near 1-yr high, broad support
Squeeze score
65
elevated · 0–100
Fundamentals
Not enough data for a confident read.
Quant / Vol
risk profile
Volatility
117%
annualized · 1-yr
Max drawdown
−89%
past year
ATR
15.2%
of price · 14-day
Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.
Guidance & track record
Latest guidance
· from the Earnings Call filed Aug 13, 2026
Revenue
· second half of this year
$4M – $6M
Guidance from company 8-Ks · delivered figures from as-reported statements · no analyst estimates involved.
Technicals
trend & momentum for long-term holders Sell
50 / 200-day cross
No cross
Neutral
Price vs 200-day avg
−77%
Bearish
Price vs 50-day avg
−45%
Bearish
RSI (14)
30
Neutral
MACD trend
Positive
Bullish
52-week position
0%
Bearish
Volume (OBV)
Confirms
Neutral
Market signals — smart money & positioning
Bullish · 2 of 6
Trend (MA cross)
No cross
50d $3 › 200d $7 — 200d above 50d
Institutional flow
Accumulating
+117% holders QoQ · +45 funds added
Insider flow
Flat
No net insider activity over 90 days
Short interest
Rising
10.43% of float · ▲ +6.5% MoM · 8.7 days cover
Volume signal
Normal
Volume near normal
Institution breadth
Multi-yr high
63 holders — near 1-yr high, broad support
Price context
position in its 52-week range
Range low $2
Now $2 · 0%
Range high $16
vs 200-day avg -77%
vs 50-day avg -45%
Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.
Key metrics
the company's own KPIs, from written earnings releases and filings| Metric | Latest | Period | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA non-GAAP | -$58.7M | Three Months Ended June 30, 2026 filing | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Net loss -$58.43M
+$712K Depreciation
+$342K Amortization of right-of-use assets
-$1.45M Interest income
+$0K Interest expense
+$125K Provision for income taxes
= EBITDA -$58.7M
|
|||
| Adjusted EBITDA non-GAAP | -$27.8M | Second Quarter 2026 | — |
GAAP → non-GAAP reconciliationGAAP Net loss -58.43M
+712K Depreciation
+342K Amortization of right-of-use assets
-1.45M Interest income
+0K Interest expense
+125K Provision for income taxes
+4.61M Stock-based compensation
+109K Equity-based payments to non-employees
+26.14M Change in fair value of warrant liabilities
+0K Change in fair value of convertible promissory notes
+0K Change in fair value of long-term debt
+0K Transaction costs
= Adjusted EBITDA -27.83M
|
|||
| Cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments | $183.9M | as of June 30, 2026 | — |
Figures exactly as the company stated them in writing · click a metric with a to chart its history · period links open the stating document · "filing" marks figures stated in the 10-K/10-Q · YoY needs an exactly comparable prior-year period
Versus peers
Aerospace & Defense — same industry group| Company | Mkt cap | YTD | Rev growth Y/Y | P/E | Short % shares |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
MRLN
this stock
Merlin, Inc.
|
$201.12M | -84.0% | — | — | 10.4% |
|
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp
|
$1.96T | — | — | — | 1.2% |
|
GE
General Electric Co
|
$339.38B | +0.5% | +18.5% | 38.5 | 1.5% |
|
RTX
RTX Corp
|
$255.27B | +0.7% | +17.1% | 33.4 | 1.0% |
|
EADSF
Airbus SE/ADR
|
$166.47B | -7.9% | — | — | 0.1% |
Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding
At a glance
key data from every sectionOwnership
Short & Settlement
Financials
Filings
Earnings & Events
Performance
| 5D | 20D | 120D | MTD | YTD | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRLN | -14.1% | -49.1% | -85.3% | -9.0% | -84.1% |
| SPY | -0.2% | -0.5% | +12.2% | +0.9% | +12.9% |
| vs SPY | -13.9% | -48.7% | -97.5% | -10.0% | -96.9% |