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NOG · Northern Oil & Gas, Inc.

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$24.50 +0.05 (+0.20%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$2.57B
Shares
106.55M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Northern Oil & Gas, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 26, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 26, 2026 44:11 36 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
44:11
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

NOG reported 2025 adjusted EBITDA up 1% despite oil prices down ~14% on average, while share count fell 2% and the company closed over $340 million of acquisitions; management framed 2026 as the likely trough of the oil cycle and emphasized a hedged balance sheet and a sustainable dividend.

Ground Game capital deployment and coiled spring 18 M&A and portfolio positioning 17 Operator behavior and activity curtailment 8 Dividend defense and sustainability 4 Hedging and capital discipline 4 Liquidity and balance sheet management 4

Management tone

Positive

Net tone +35 · moderate hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “While our equity total return was down in 2025, our adjusted EBITDA was actually up 1%, and this was with oil prices down some 14% on average.”
  • “We are well hedged, and our spending decisions over the last 12 months have proven wise as we have pushed and preserved high-value development for a higher price environment.”
  • “Our dividend is built for an even significantly weaker environment than we face today, where we would ultimately be at a cash flow breakeven level during the trough of the cycle post-dividend.”
  • “NOG is well-positioned to navigate through the current market volatility. Our assets are performing well. Our liquidity is abundant, and our investment opportunity set remains strong.”

Research coverage

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Revenue · derived Q4 $610.18M +18.5% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 -$70.73M -198.6% YoY

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • 2025 adjusted EBITDA up 1% despite average oil prices down ~14%
  • Share count down 2% year-over-year and net debt modestly lower despite closing over $340 million of acquisitions including Ground Game
  • Record natural gas volumes realized alongside some of the highest seasonal gas prices seen in many years
  • Q4 unrealized mark-to-market hedge gains of $84.0–$88.0 million and realized hedge gains of $70.0–$72.0 million
  • Over 45,000 bbl/d of oil hedged for 1H 2026 and over 40,000 bbl/d hedged for full-year 2026, with average swap prices of $66.00–$67.87/Bbl
  • Grew acreage organically by over 12,000 acres in 2025 and expanded land further in Q1 2026; closed joint Utica acquisition with Infinity while maintaining higher liquidity than start of 2025

Risks & pressure points

  • Equity total return was down in 2025 amid multiple compression
  • Management expects 2026 will mark the trough of the oil cycle and cited notable operator slowdown and deferral of activity as oil moved into the $50s
  • Press release disclosed a non-cash impairment charge for the quarter
  • In the low-activity 2026 scenario, oil volumes are expected to decline even as capex falls
  • Management acknowledged maintaining two guidance scenarios (low vs. high activity) reflects ongoing quarter-to-quarter uncertainty on operator timing
  • Q1 2026 Antero joint development completions primarily expected in April, limiting near-term impact

Key moments

Jump directly to management's words in the synchronized transcript.

“We've heard investor rumors that somehow our dividend could be in question. I'd like to address that directly as we think this chatter is totally unfounded. While nothing in life is ever completely certain, our dividend is built for an even significantly weaker environment than we face today, where we would ultimately be at a cash flow breakeven level during the trough of the cycle post-dividend.” Nicholas O'Grady, CEO

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Buybacks · derived
$7.01M
Dividend / share
$0.45
Full-screen source Call document