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Earnings call · FY2022 Q4
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Terrific. Thanks very much, Andrew, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our fourth-quarter earnings conference call. On the call today are Signet's CEO, Gina Drosos; and Chief Financial and Strategy Officer, Joan Hilson. During today's presentation, we'll make certain forward-looking statements. Any statements that are not historical facts are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially. We urge you to read risk factors, cautionary language and other disclosure in our annual report on Form 10-K, quarterly reports on 10-Q and current reports on 8-Ks. Except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to revise or publicly update forward-looking statements in light of new information or future events. During the call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. For further discussion of those non-GAAP measures as well as reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures, investors should review the news release we posted on our website at www.signetjewelers.com/investors. With that, I'll turn the call over to Gina.
Thank you, Vinnie, and thanks to everyone on the call today. Before we start, I want to address the crisis in Ukraine. As a company dedicated to inspiring love, we stand against this invasion and unprovoked war. Consequently, Signet has halted all business with Russian-owned entities since the conflict began. Through our Signet Love Inspires Foundation, we have donated $1 million to the Red Cross to support food, medical care, and supplies in Ukraine, as well as shelter for the millions of refugees. Our foundation is also matching donations made by our team members at a 2:1 ratio. We will seek more ways to support the people of Ukraine, and our thoughts and prayers are with them. Now, let me share Signet's results with you. We finished this year once again with strong performance. The Signet team achieved record sales and earnings growth, marking our sixth consecutive quarter of overall growth. I want to thank our team members for their unwavering leadership and commitment. I am continually inspired by their accomplishments. There is one key message I'd like you to take from this quarter and year. We are demonstrating that Signet has the strategies, strength, and advantages to consistently outpace the market and gain share while also delivering sustainable double-digit operating margins. We see this evidenced in three specific ways. First, we increased our U.S. market share to 9.3%, a gain of 270 basis points over the previous year. We grew share in every channel and banner, excelling in established categories like bridal, where Signet holds nearly 30% of the U.S. retail market, and in lab-created diamonds, where we are expanding our lead as the market leader in this new and rapidly growing area. Second, we are boosting our margins as we grow. In fact, we have permanently elevated our margins over the last four years by 200 basis points above the starting point of our Path to Brilliance journey. We will use our time with you today to explain our belief that our double-digit operating margin is sustainable. And third, we are generating substantial excess cash. Our leverage ratio is strong at less than 2x EBITDAR. We are investing in organic growth and acquisitions. With our stock's current valuation, we are actively focused on share repurchases to capitalize on the disconnect between our confidence in Signet's long-term value and the current reflection of that in the share price. Indeed, we have repurchased over $270 million in shares since mid-January and still have more than $400 million in authorization remaining. Signet's results are fueled by the strengths we highlighted in our last call: our diverse banner portfolio, Connected Commerce presence, data analytics ability, and scale. These strengths, along with our financial health and commitment to industry-leading investments, have become crucial, sustainable sources of competitive advantage. In a moment, I’ll outline the progress we've made this quarter in each of our strategic focus areas. But first, I'd like to provide some perspective on the tailwinds and macro headwinds we anticipate in the upcoming year. The tailwinds we feel confident in leveraging and the headwinds we are prepared to manage. The most significant tailwinds stem from our own strategies. They are not temporary but instead are gaining momentum. We plan to invest up to $250 million in capital during fiscal ‘23 to advance our strategies, further strengthening our stores, digital platform, and data analytics advantages. This represents our largest planned capital investment in the past five years and is informed by increasingly precise insights. The largest external tailwind is undoubtedly positive: weddings are back. Couples are marrying at record rates, and we expect more weddings this year than at any point in nearly 40 years. Bridal is a vital part of our business, but it extends beyond engagement rings. The average couple purchases their wedding bands two months before their wedding, and wedding events provide opportunities for us to supply jewelry for brides and grooms, bridesmaids, mothers of the bride, and guests. Additionally, these celebrations drive future growth, as dating couples who attend weddings together are among the most likely to get engaged soon after. We are constantly searching for innovative ways to enhance the bridal experience. One example is the Rocksbox bridal subscription, which we are currently testing. Rental pieces allow every member of a bridal party to shine at showers, engagement dinners, and the moment of saying 'I do'. They also resonate with customers interested in participating in a circular economy. We do expect some macro headwinds in the coming months but believe we are well-equipped to handle them. We anticipate a shift in consumer spending toward entertainment and travel. More than 75% of American consumers are ready to travel, and many are planning trips for June and July, despite the increased costs compared to pre-pandemic times. This reinforces that consumers are willing to pay more for desirable experiences and goods. The most pressing concern for many is the war in Ukraine and, to a lesser extent, inflationary pressures that may impact both the near and long term. Inflation places pressure on discretionary spending, yet whether people have been waiting two years to travel or marry, they are making the important purchases in their lives, even at higher prices. At Signet, we are positioned to leverage this dynamic with excellent value, fresh offerings, industry-leading marketing and services, expert advice from our jewelry consultants in-store and online, and a Connected Commerce experience that ensures superior, seamless customer interactions. Our financial strength and strong supply chain relationships empower us to provide great value to customers despite inflationary pressures, while still protecting and enhancing our margins. As a result, we believe we will be less influenced by inflation than jewelry industry competitors or the retail sector overall. To delve deeper, our supply chain is a significant source of competitive advantage. We are a sightholder with De Beers, allowing us to purchase rough diamonds directly. We also have an online diamond marketplace through James Allen, giving us real-time pricing on over 450,000 cut and polished stones worth more than $2 billion. We now operate seven manufacturing facilities in India, exclusively subcontracted for Signet, in addition to our own cut and polish facility in Botswana. Overall, we expanded our production capacity tenfold last year. This level of significant vertical integration, coupled with our strategic vendor partnerships, provides us with a vast advantage in terms of inventory quality and volume. We are also a leader in responsible sourcing, which has become increasingly important to consumers today. We believe our sophisticated supply chain and AI-driven inventory management system creates a distinct competitive edge in the fragmented jewelry market, ensuring consumer access to the right inventory at the right time and price, with an unmatched level of agility. We expect the jewelry industry to see a slight decline of low single digits or remain roughly flat this year. While it is impossible to predict precisely how long it will take the industry to return to its historical average annual growth rate of 2%, we can confidently say that Signet is well-positioned to grow faster than the industry. We believe we can continue to gain market share and deliver sustainable double-digit operating margins. With that assurance, let’s take a closer look at our progress across each of our strategic focus areas. Winning in our largest businesses continues to be the cornerstone of our Inspiring Brilliance strategy. Every one of our banners is performing at or above their growth targets. This reflects the consistent advancement we've made in differentiating our banners through clearer customer targets, optimized assortments, and always-on marketing that is both efficient and effective. I'll highlight just two of these enhancements. Firstly, we are enhancing our in-store experience as part of our seamless connected commerce strategy. During the pandemic, we shifted to digital and invested in the necessary digital experiences for our customers. Now that customers are returning to our stores, fiscal '23 marks our largest investment in store experiences in the last five years, driven by our distinct banner value propositions and data-driven analysis. Secondly, we are increasingly investing in consistently present marketing, more aggressively and strategically than ever before, at a level within the jewelry industry that is unmatched. In fiscal '22, we upped our advertising budget by over $180 million, and we plan to continue this investment this year. This allows us to increase customer acquisition, engaging customers with relevant messages in the right channels at the appropriate times, and reduces reliance on traditional fourth-quarter profitability. And scale matters here. We hold a 50% share of voice in targeted television even as we have noticeably shifted to a more focused digital marketing approach. The two strategies work together, enabling us to increase the numbers at the top of our customer acquisition funnel and reach more customers efficiently. Simultaneously, our data-driven consumer insights help us to improve the quality of the customers we attract. Those responding to our marketing exhibit higher purchase intent and are looking to spend more. We see this clearly in North America, where we increased average transaction values by over 15% and achieved nearly 20% growth in-store conversions compared to two years ago. Moreover, Kay and Zales, two of our banners that traditionally overlapped, are now well-differentiated and achieving strong growth in tandem. Both not only outperformed the industry but also improved their Net Promoter Scores by double digits compared to two years ago. Expanding accessible luxury and value stands as our second focus, and we are making significant strides across both ends of the mid-market. In the value segment, we have fully rebranded Banter by Piercing Pagoda. With seven consecutive years of positive same-store sales, Banter is attracting our youngest customer base, and the rebrand is gaining traction. The launch of bantor.com, for instance, has increased site traffic by over 80% since last year. Our expansion into inline locations is allowing us to tap into high-traffic shopping areas where kiosks are impractical and provide private rooms for needle-piercing services, one of the fastest-growing and most profitable services we offer. We are also enhancing our growth in the value tier by emphasizing our outlet formats with distinctive and exclusive merchandise designed for treasure-seeking customers. Outlets experienced nearly 55% growth compared to last year. On the other end, in the accessible luxury tier, we saw substantial growth this year across three of our banners: Jared, James Allen, and Diamonds Direct. Jared has been diligently refining its assortment over the past few years to focus on higher price points. We are now offering larger stones, fancier cuts, and higher-quality metals while stepping away from lesser-priced options. This strategy is effective; Jared's average transaction value rose over 60% from the previous year. James Allen is key to our accessible luxury growth with its online-first model. This year, James Allen expanded its fashion assortment significantly. The idea is that when customers are pleased with their James Allen engagement ring and wedding bands, they will naturally think of us for meaningful gifts and fashion accessories. This approach is paying off, with James Allen's fashion category sales rising over 95% this year, achieving an average transaction value more than eight times higher than our North America average. Diamonds Direct presents another success story. We currently have 22 locations, and there is considerable room for growth. Signet contributes our trade area analytics capability to this opportunity, enabling us to open Diamonds Direct locations with data-driven precision for maximum growth and profitability. Looking ahead, we know we can leverage Connected Commerce to create a Diamonds Direct digital presence that will seamlessly integrate with our brick-and-mortar formats. Accelerating services constitutes the third pillar of our strategy, and our goal is to expand it into a $1 billion business. In fiscal '22, we made progress toward this goal, generating $620 million in revenue, a 65% increase from the previous year. I'll focus on three of our high-potential service areas: repair, extended service agreements, and rewards. These services are invaluable relationship builders. The better we perform in these areas, the stronger the lifelong relationships we cultivate and the greater the lifetime value we capture. To start with repair, we offer services regardless of where a piece was purchased—not only because of the revenue it generates but also because it creates significant opportunities for advocacy. Handing us a cherished piece of jewelry for repair and receiving it back beautifully refreshed nurtures loyalty. It's a powerful emotional experience and also drives future growth. We are continually working to enhance our repair services. Our average turnaround period for repairs is now under a week, whereas the industry standard is typically two to three weeks. We are receiving rising customer satisfaction ratings in areas like feeling valued and response time. The second example is the increased attachment rates of our extended service agreements, especially online. ESAs are our most significant and highest-margin services. In the fourth quarter, following our relaunch, online attachment rates increased nearly 400 basis points, leading to a 300 basis point increase in total attachment rates versus the previous year. This translated into a revenue growth of over 35% in extended service agreements this quarter. Improvements like these benefit our customers and are also crucial for our margin expansion goals. The final example I’ll mention is one I’m personally very excited about: our new Vault Rewards loyalty program. We began piloting this program at Jared last year and will expand it to other banners by the end of fiscal '23. Loyalty programs are essential as they deepen relationships and stimulate repeat purchases. At Signet, a customer’s second purchase is the strongest indicator of lifetime value. Forty percent of customers making a second purchase within nine months of their first will likely make a third purchase within the next six months, fostering relationships that continuously strengthen. This is significant. For instance, in fiscal '22, the average transaction value of returning customers was 14% higher than that of new customers. Long-term relationships at scale provide a powerful strategic advantage. Our fourth strategy is leading digital commerce, which we view as a growth accelerator. Many may define this strategy too narrowly, underestimating the value Signet is delivering. It encompasses e-commerce, of course, and we've doubled our e-commerce sales over the last two years. E-commerce sales have even tripled since we initiated our Path to Brilliance transformation. With over $1.5 billion in e-commerce sales, we now rank as the largest online specialty jewelry retailer in the U.S., and we are widening this gap. Last year, while the overall retail sector's digital NPS fell by 17 points to below 50, Signet's digital NPS improved by 8 points to nearly 70, creating a 20-point margin over the rest. Given the industry's fragmentation, we believe our advantage over jewelry retail is even more significant. Importantly, leading digital commerce at Signet is broader than just e-commerce. We are digitizing all our interactions with customers. Our store associates remain connected, allowing them to stay with customers throughout their journey. They can search our entire inventory for perfect pieces not found in their store, enroll customers in an ESA, and complete purchases all on their tablet. This creates a considerable advantage. Digitally connected customers bring greater value, and Signet is uniquely positioned to meet their needs. Currently, 65% of all our customers visit our digital platforms during their shopping journeys, a significant rise from pre-COVID levels. Fully 90% of our most valuable customers—those spending over $500 with us—engage across shopping channels, benefiting from our Connected Commerce capabilities and services. The smoother the experience across formats, the faster our banners grow. Beyond customer-facing capabilities, we are employing digital innovation and data analytics to boost efficiency and guide decision-making. To provide a couple of examples, targeted marketing and promotions are proving a more effective use of resources. This year, we attracted 32% more new customers than we did in fiscal '21 as our targeting became more refined. Additionally, we re-engaged 37% more customers who had not shopped with us in over two years. This is why we are launching our new customer data platform in the spring, which we will utilize to attract more customers at reduced acquisition costs. There is genuine scale potential here with a company-wide database of customer browsing and purchase histories harmonized across all our banners. Notably, this data is personalized to customers, not households, enabling us to market to individuals without alerting their partner about their upcoming anniversary. Moreover, we are harnessing digital capabilities to optimize our store fleet further. While stores play a vital role in our Connected Commerce strategy, the goal is to position them exactly where customers need them in their shopping journey while ensuring the best returns on investments. Over the past four years, we have reduced over 20% of our fleet. Now, we are optimizing our fleet at a hyper-local level using our new greenfield analysis. This optimization is crucial as it allows a permanent adjustment of our margin structure. We achieved nearly 500 basis points more in gross margin in fiscal '22 than we four years ago due to higher sales on lower occupancy costs. A straightforward way to conceptualize our strategy of leading digital commerce is that we are constructing a consumer-informed moat around our business. The more we invest and enhance our capabilities and the more our customers value our seamless Connected Commerce experience, the more formidable it becomes for competitors to keep up. This exemplifies strategic scale at its finest. What I hope you recognize is that we are outpacing the market across all four of our focus areas, and these strategic decisions are broadening the gap between us and the rest of the industry. We believe we can continue this trajectory and gain market share year after year. Before I pass it to Joan, I want to emphasize one last point: culture matters. The strength of Signet's culture, talent, and employee engagement at every level is evident in our robust business performance. One way we evaluate our cultural strength is through the Great Place to Work survey. For the second consecutive year, our employee survey scores have earned Signet the Great Place to Work certification, with improvements in nearly every category. Importantly, in a year when many companies faced labor shortages due to the great resignation, Signet's turnover actually improved. Our team members are deeply motivated by our mission of inspiring love. This ethos is present in every customer interaction and shapes our identity as a responsible corporate citizen. Collectively, we aim to make a lasting and meaningful positive impact on our surroundings. This not only earns customer admiration but also fosters pride and a sense of belonging within our organization. One example of this, alongside our humanitarian support for the people of Ukraine that I mentioned earlier, is our commitment to St. Jude Children's Research Hospital. This year, amid an ongoing pandemic and uncertainty, our customers and team members showed remarkable solidarity, eager to express love and support for every child at St. Jude. Our fiscal '22 annual campaign concluded with an impressive fundraising total—an increase of over 85% from the previous year, reaching $7.6 million and bringing our total support to nearly $100 million over the past 25 years. Our capacity to impact lives like this, powered by our mission and underscored by strong customer relationships, instills great pride in our organization. This aligns with the 90% of our team members who express pride in their daily contributions at Signet. Now, let me turn it over to Joan to share her insights before we address your questions.
Thanks, Gina. Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining. Here are our key takeaways for today. We are demonstrating Signet as having the strategies, strength, and structural advantages to consistently outpace the market and gain share while also delivering sustainable double-digit operating margins. Our strategic initiatives have improved our operating structure, and we are now positioned to consistently deliver an annual operating margin that is more than double that of two years ago. Simply stated, Signet is a transformed company poised to gain market share. Additionally, the combination of continuous market share gains and stronger margins means we will continue to generate excess cash, giving us flexibility to continue investing in the business, consider acquisitions that align with our existing strategy, and given our current valuation, focus on share buybacks. Our performance this quarter and this fiscal year reflect the importance of our improved operating structure and the cost discipline that is now a core part of our culture and will help fuel growth in the years ahead. While we anticipate a challenging macro environment for the industry in the coming year, we believe we will deliver top-line growth that outpaces the industry. Now for the quarter, we delivered total sales of $2.8 billion, growth of nearly $625 million over last year. Growth continues to be broad-based across all banners and categories, reflective of our connected commerce efforts working across our platforms. Fourth-quarter non-GAAP operating income of $411 million is up from $293.8 million last year. This represents a 14.6% operating margin, up 120 basis points to last year. Reflected in this improvement is 150 basis points of gross margin expansion, led by the continued leverage on fixed costs from our real estate optimization efforts. This was slightly offset by 30 basis points in SG&A from deliberate investments in our holiday advertising strategy and staffing initiatives, both of which, we believe, led to an acceleration of top-line results. Turning to the balance sheet. I'd like to highlight a number of working capital milestones this year. This is an area of major progress, and net of cash, our working capital is better by more than 40% to last year from the following improvements. We drove a 56% improvement in inventory turn versus last year, driven by continued progress of inventory life cycle management as well as the positive impact of fulfillment options like ship from store. Notably, Kay, our largest banner, had inventory turn of roughly 2x, the fastest turn in its history. This is a great example of our progress that has enabled more targeted units for our customers. To highlight the health of our inventory, clearance and sell-down penetration declined 10 points to last year. It is the lowest it's been in five years. Additionally, we sold all of our remaining credit receivables in the first half of the year, completing our transition away from historical exposure to consumer credit risk. And further, we drove a 30% increase in our days payable outstanding. I am really proud of the team and the muscles we have developed and continuously looking to optimize our efficiency and to achieve our results by doing more with less. Together, we are driving more sales with less working capital, less risk, and fewer stores, all while delivering more cash. And our balance sheet is strong. We ended the year with $1.4 billion in cash and overall liquidity of more than $2.6 billion to continue supporting our capital priorities as we look to the year ahead. As always, our first priority remains investing in our business with a focus on continued growth and market share gains. To that end, we utilized $193 million of cash in fiscal '22 for capital expenditures, fueling our digital and technology advancements as well as differentiating our banners. Also, we strategically invested in two new banners through the acquisitions of Diamonds Direct and Rocksbox. Looking at the year ahead, we see opportunities to further enhance our physical and digital footprint as these competitive advantages remain crucial to our connected commerce strategy. Looking forward, we expect capital expenditures up to $250 million for fiscal 2023. Our second priority is ensuring a strong cash position and liquidity to provide financial flexibility. We have achieved an adjusted debt-to-EBITDAR leverage ratio of 1.9x this year, which is well within our stated goal of below 3x leverage. Also recall, our ABL facility extends beyond the horizon of our current debt obligations. Lastly, with the strength of the balance sheet and confidence in our team's execution, we are continuing to return excess cash to shareholders. As a reminder, we entered a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement during the fourth quarter, which was completed after the fiscal year-end. Currently, $413 million remains under our authorization. And with our current valuation, we are focused on share repurchases. Additionally, we've increased our quarterly common dividend from $0.18 per share to $0.20 per share, a first step in becoming a consistent dividend growth retailer. Before I discuss our full-year guidance, I'd like to take a step back to detail structural changes in our operating model since we began our transformation four years ago. These changes expanded operating margins by nearly 200 basis points and give us the confidence to provide guidance that outpaces our expectation of industry growth and delivers a double-digit operating margin, all despite macro uncertainties. We've transformed our business model to do more with less through the following changes: First, we gained nearly 500 basis points resulting from our real estate optimization strategy. We've cut our fleet by over 20% and also shifted mall stores to more profitable off-mall formats. For example, Kay, our largest banner, is now roughly 50% off-mall. Second, alongside a more efficient fleet is a more efficient labor model. Informed by our data analytics, we plan staffing store by store and hour by hour, contributing 300 basis points of margin expansion. Importantly, we're doing this while improving the team member experience as we continue to see high employee satisfaction scores and lower turnover. And thirdly, we've also invested over 500 basis points of margin to better align Signet with our long-term strategy. Notably, we shifted to a complete outsourcing of our store credit program. We also acquired James Allen, a critical step in both the acceleration of our digital innovation and the vertically integrated sourcing of both natural and lab-created diamonds. And finally, we made investments in always-on marketing, reducing our reliance on fourth-quarter profitability, as well as increasing awareness of our differentiated banner portfolio. While there are other smaller puts and takes, I'd also highlight several capabilities that we see maturing in a margin-accretive fashion over time. These include our inventory lifecycle optimization, a practice that is helping us to better capture margin by taking early remarks during a product life cycle. We have also tripled our e-commerce sales while keeping our freight costs as a percent of sales flat, through our expanded fulfillment and freight management capabilities. We believe we can continue to leverage our digital and physical footprint to further optimize our shipping costs in a time of freight cost increases. In summary, these changes are sustainable and reflect the company that we are today. We are a data-driven and innovative connected commerce leader in the jewelry industry. As we look to the year ahead, we will continue to invest in both our physical and digital footprint as we manage the business in an even more integrated fashion. To this end, we're moving away from the practice of guiding same-store sales. We plan our business to drive top-line, whenever, wherever, and however our customers choose to shop with us. Today, the final point of sale is not indicative of our customers' shopping journey. Also, a portion of management's incentive compensation will now be tied to market share gains, incentivizing our team to drive top-line growth. That said, we appreciate that we and the industry are going up against difficult comparisons. So we will continue to report same-store sales in this unique environment. With that, let me turn to our fiscal '23 financial guidance. After a year of heightened growth in our industry, our guidance reflects an industry-wide transition back to a more normalized environment. We expect sales for the overall jewelry industry in a range of down low-single digits to roughly flat. Reflected in this view of the industry is an appreciation of the continued pressure on both consumer discretionary spending and commodity costs as well as the expectation of a more pronounced return of consumer travel. With this context, we expect to deliver total revenue in the range of $8.03 billion to $8.25 billion. This is a performance that we believe will outpace the industry trends through both our core business and Diamonds Direct. We expect operating income in the range of $921 million to $974 million. This range reflects the structural changes I detailed a moment ago, with flexibility for increased promotion and optionality based upon the evolving macro environment and shifting consumer discretionary spending. New with our guidance this year is that we will be providing annual EPS expectations. For FY '23, we expect earnings per share in the range of $12.28 to $13 per share. Turning to the first quarter. We expect revenue for the first quarter in the range of $1.78 billion to $1.82 billion, with operating income in the range of $177 million to $186 million.
The first question comes from Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.
Congratulations on the nice progress and the outlook. As we think about the macro environment, a couple of things. How are you taking into account the implications of inflation, both on the cost side and also the consumer side? And then on the macro side, do you receive any of your diamonds from Russia? And how are you handling that? And then just lastly, Gina, you talked about the ways you're serving the consumer and, frankly, the whole circular area, whether it's online, whether it's stores, whether it's what you have with Rocksbox. As you think about new customer acquisition, how is that moving along? And are you seeing channel diversification of the shoppers that you have?
Thank you, Dana, for your questions and for being here today. We are fully aware of the pressures our customers are experiencing due to inflation, and it's a priority for us as we conduct ongoing research. So far, we haven't observed any major changes in spending. We had a successful Valentine's Day and the trends have remained positive. However, we are prepared to take action if consumer confidence declines significantly and spending decreases due to the overall economic situation. We are continuously collaborating with our vendor partners to engineer our products for better value, offering a variety of products at different price points within our brands and across our diversified portfolio. We also focus on targeted advertising, enhanced in-store and online experiences, and appealing merchandise. This gives us confidence that when consumers decide to purchase jewelry, especially with the demand for weddings, they will choose Signet, even during tough times. Regarding Russia, we quickly took action in response to the situation by suspending all business interactions with Russian-owned entities since the conflict began. We have requested that all our vendor partners do the same, and we made a $1 million donation to the Red Cross, a reputable organization supporting people in Ukraine. Our responsible sourcing program is well-respected, and we’ve been a leader in ethical sourcing for over a decade. Customers can trust that every piece of jewelry and every stone and metal used is responsibly sourced. This is our commitment to our customers, and we stand by it. We are also founders of the Responsible Jewelry Council and a part of the World Diamond organization, having developed our own responsible sourcing protocol to ensure that our supply chain operates under the standards we demand. Regarding the impact of suspended Russian diamonds, it has been minimal for us, but we are taking a strong stance on this issue because we believe it is significant. Concerning the circular economy and new customer acquisition, it’s noteworthy that 65% of our customers now interact with us across multiple channels, unlike before the pandemic. For our most valuable customers, those spending $500 or more, that figure rises to 90%. Jewelry has traditionally been regarded as primarily a brick-and-mortar category, with about 80% of our sales occurring in-store and 20% online. However, what is important is how customers are shopping, how we are acquiring them, and their movement through the purchasing process, which is increasingly digital. This is a competitive advantage for Signet that may be underappreciated but is incredibly valuable. The investment we've made in this area over the last several years is unmatched in our fragmented industry, and we plan to continue focusing on this as a key area for growth.
The next question comes from Tim Vierengel with Northcoast Research.
I think we all appreciate the extra data on your market share gains and expectations for the industry for fiscal '23. I was wondering if you can maybe break out how you think fashion will perform relative to bridal, assuming the industry hits that slightly down to flat comp versus the previous year. And I guess for modeling premises, do you expect the sales growth to be pretty consistent throughout the year?
Well, thanks for the question, Tim. And it's interesting, as we think about the growth in the jewelry industry, the heightened growth last year, and our view that we expect it to be down low single digits to roughly flat given the inflationary pressures. We think that bridal will continue. Gina mentioned that the increased number of weddings and people getting engaged. It's important for us to focus on bridal and continue to do so as it represents nearly half of our business. The other point on fashion is we've seen, over the last year, continued growth in fashion. Gina talked about James Allen and the growth that we saw in line there with fashion. So we see it as a continued growth opportunity for our business and really a way for us to continue to bring value to our customers as well as address the self-gifting customer, if you will, throughout the year. So really feel that that's an important aspect of our portfolio offering. And it really allows us as well to drive a good, better, best assortment architecture, and that will also help us to mitigate some of the pressure that we're seeing related to the discretionary spend and inflation. With respect to how the year plays out by quarter, what we did give is the first quarter. And we didn't mention we had a strong Valentine's Day, and we're pleased with that performance and the continued strength of the business. That's reflected in our guidance for the quarter.
Okay. You mentioned inflation twice, and I was curious if you could elaborate on how inflationary pressure can benefit you compared to the market. Does it simply enhance your relative value perception, or do you have better buying power, resulting in less impact on your margins? Could you explain that a bit more?
Yes, Tim, I think you really captured the essence of it. Over time, we have developed two, actually three key competitive advantages in our supply chain that make us more resilient to inflation than other jewelry industry competitors. First is our strategic vendor relationships. We place our orders well in advance, which allows vendors the flexibility to enter the market when prices are favorable and step back when they are not. Our scale enables us to collaborate with them, ensuring we receive the right quality, quantity, and pricing that our customers expect. The second advantage is our vertical integration, which I mentioned has increased tenfold in the past year. This strategy not only helps us manage pricing pressures and availability challenges but also provides us with insights into the cost structure throughout the value chain. This insight allows us to work effectively with our partners to achieve a desirable value equation. Third, building on what Joan mentioned about maximizing efficiency, we reduced our inventory in our core business by $190 million last year while enhancing product availability for our customers. Our jewelry consultants now have access to every product in the Signet network through their iPads, which means we can serve customers virtually or in-store, ensuring we find the perfect product for them. This is particularly important in the jewelry category, as many of our products are bespoke. Diamonds are unique, which is part of what makes them special; they aren't like standard apparel items where a certain number of size mediums is required. Instead, we need to pinpoint the right bespoke piece. Our network allows us to achieve this agility, which is a significant competitive advantage. These are the primary reasons we feel we have an edge in the market. Additionally, from a category perspective, the jewelry segment tends to be more resilient to inflation compared to other retail sectors. Our research indicates that consumers recognize the intrinsic value of jewelry. Gold, other precious metals, and diamonds generally appreciate in value over time, unlike other purchases that tend to depreciate. So, those are the main reasons behind our advantage.
The next question comes from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.
After a really strong year for the category, I think one of the big questions is the margin sustainability. Joan, could you just try to bridge us from pre-pandemic margin to the guided levels and maybe focusing on the changes you've made in credit? How much of the merchandise margin gains are sustainable? Just to get us a little bit more comfortable with the sustainability of that level.
Yes, thank you, Lorraine. As we reported on a non-GAAP basis, our operating margin was 11.6%. When we consider that margin, the first thing to note is our fleet optimization. We achieved 500 basis points of fixed cost leverage this year by reducing occupancy costs through cutting our store count by over 20% in recent years. This allowed us to reinvest and continue to drive top-line growth while reducing our number of stores and investing in digital. Additionally, I mentioned a contribution of 300 basis points arising from our labor optimization model, which involves structural changes in our planning processes with our stores team. This approach enhances our ability to ensure proper coverage during peak sales times and improves labor productivity. The 300 basis points improvement stems from these structural adjustments. Furthermore, our gross margin expansion reflects the team’s impressive work on inventory management. By collaborating with sourcing teams and merchants, and streamlining inventory access for all our JCs via iPads, we have been able to sell through inventory more effectively, increase turnover rates, and introduce new products, driving growth. I also noted that our clearance reduced by 10 points, which ties back to these structural business changes. Our team has developed a strong capability in this area, which is ingrained in our culture. We are committed to continuing the expansion of operating margins and maintaining the margins we have demonstrated over the past couple of years.
The one build that I'd add is what I talked about in my script, one of our strategies, which is accelerating services. I mentioned that we have a $1 billion goal for services, that we reached $620 million last year. And it was up 65%. That's higher, obviously, than the 50% revenue that we were up overall in part because customers are returning to stores but also in part because we're figuring out how to get attachment of things like extended service agreements online. Services are high margin for us. And so as we really focus on growing that as part of our mix and leveraging the relationship-building that we get. I also mentioned that the second and third purchases that customers make are often more valuable to us than the first one. So the benefit, not only of the service itself to our margin, but also that ongoing relationship with customers adding to our mix is another reason that we're confident that our margin expansion is sustainable.
The next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.
This is Will on behalf of Ike. I have a question regarding Russia. You touched on this topic, but since Russia is a significant diamond supplier—supplying about 30% of the world’s mined diamonds—are you experiencing increased cost pressures due to the import ban on Russian diamonds? Additionally, do you anticipate significant price increases for your products and across the jewelry sector?
So well, given the strong demand for jewelry over the past several years, we were already seeing some pressure on diamond prices with recent sites pricing on the rise. We've been working with our strategic vendors, though, as I mentioned, and leveraging our significant vertical integration and sourcing to mitigate these increases. So I feel very confident that consumers will continue to find strong value at Signet. And we believe that the pricing pressure will impact Signet less than other industry players and the retail segment as a whole. The other thing is that any price increases that will happen are within the balance of ones we've taken historically and have the data on. So I feel good about that. And when I think about the alternatives that consumers are seeing, things like travel, the double-digit increases on trips, things like that, that people are willing to pay for, are bigger price increases than I expect that we will see at Signet.
The next question comes from Paul Lejuez with Citi Research.
Curious as you think about the industry growth overall, how much are you assuming in terms of units versus price? And then I'm kind of curious about how you're thinking about your bridal business, specifically in terms of ticket and what the plans are there from an AUR perspective? And also just higher level, long term, where do you feel you have a bigger opportunity to take share? Is it bridal or fashion? One more so than the other?
Thank you for the questions, Paul. As we consider our businesses for the upcoming year, we haven't specifically discussed units in relation to average unit retail or average order value guidance. However, we can share that our strategy revolves around providing good, better, and best options, and we believe we can offer value across all price points. This will be achieved through our supply chain, vertical integration, and strong vendor relationships, allowing us to deliver products that our customers will love and can afford while maintaining appropriate margins aligned with our guidance. This approach is integral to our assortment structure, and bridal continues to be a crucial aspect of our business. We're enthusiastic about the number of rentals we anticipate this year and the potential for engagement. We will maintain our focus on bridal while balancing it with fashion as a key component of our overall portfolio strategy across all our brands.
And Paul, regarding your question on market share, we are a consumer-driven company. We anticipate three key trends in merchandise this year: weddings, the emerging workplace, and lab-created diamonds. Concerning weddings, we expect the highest number of weddings in 40 years. On average, people purchase wedding bands about two months before the ceremony. This gives us two opportunities to sell wedding bands, along with other items like earrings and necklaces. We're also expanding our customer care to include not just the couple getting married, but also the mothers of the bride, bridesmaids, and others, through merchandise sales and a new rental program we're testing. This presents a chance for us to grow our presence in the bridal market. As for the workplace, with hybrid models being more common, people want to present themselves confidently, both in person and on video calls. We believe we can continue to grow our self-purchase segment, which has historically been underdeveloped but is now a faster-growing area for us. Regarding lab-created diamonds, although they currently make up less than 10% of diamond purchases, this segment is expanding quickly. We've established proprietary sourcing, which we believe allows us to offer the best selection for customers in terms of availability, quality, and value. We intend to focus on this area as well. The overarching theme connecting all of these points is the importance of lifetime value. Bridal purchases often serve as an entry point for us, along with earrings and our Banter brand. Our goal is to maintain long-term relationships with our customers, and the more effectively we do this across all channels, the quicker we will grow.
The next question comes from Mauricio Serna with UBS.
Congratulations on the very good results. A couple of things. I wanted to ask about the capital allocation because you've done a lot of repurchases at the end of the last fiscal year. So I want to understand how that plays out into the EPS guidance you provided this morning. And also maybe if we could just follow up a little bit on the operating margins? The guidance that you have provided seems like at least you will be able to maintain operating margins in line with last year. So just trying to understand what are like the puts and takes there in terms of cost, maybe like investment marketing and labor costs and all the major puts and takes in the operating margin guidance.
Thanks, Mauricio. We completed our $250 million ASR after the fiscal year-end, and we have $413 million remaining under the current authorization. Our EPS guidance does not include further repurchases, but does account for the conclusion of the ASR program. Regarding the operating margin guidance, we are aiming for 11.8% for the full year compared to last year’s 11.6%. We are actively pursuing cost savings programs, which are part of our culture and essential for expanding margins while investing in our long-term capabilities. We will continue to invest in advertising. As Gina mentioned, we have a balanced marketing approach, utilizing both TV and digital investments which allow us to increase customer awareness in a targeted manner through data analytics. Advertising investments are managed carefully with a return-on-investment focus. Additionally, we are maintaining our labor modeling and optimizing our fleet, which helps us leverage fixed costs through that program. We’ve factored in inflationary pressures and will continue to identify opportunities for vertical integration as part of our gross margin expansion. This is all part of the structural operating model we are establishing and will utilize moving forward.
This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.
Well, thank you again, everyone, for your engagement today. When we spoke with you this time last year, we reinforced that Signet has become a say-do company. Our team holds ourselves accountable for saying clearly what we will do, and then we do it. When we began our journey four years ago, we said we would accelerate growth, deliver cost savings to fund investments, optimize our fleet, reduce debt and return capital to shareholders. We've done all those things by leveraging our strengths and accelerating our investments. As a result, we are consistently outpacing the market and gaining share while also delivering double-digit operating margins. We are no longer the company that many investors may remember from several years ago. We are demonstrating that Signet can reliably gain market share over time. We are a company you can count on to lead innovation, grow the market, and generate the value you deserve. Thank you.
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.
SEC filing · Item 2.02
Filed Mar 17, 2022 · complete as-filed document