Operator
Thank you for your patience. The call will begin momentarily. Thank you for your patience. The call will begin momentarily. My name is Megan, and I'll be your conference operator today, and would like to welcome everyone to the fourth quarter in full year 2025 SLB earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question during the time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telethon keypad. You may remove yourself from the queue by placing star 2. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to James R. McDonald, Senior Vice President of Investor Relations and Industry Affairs. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Megan. Good morning, and welcome to the SLB Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Today's call is being hosted from Houston following our board meeting held earlier this week. Joining us on the call are Olivier LaPuche, Chief Executive Officer, and Stéphane Begay, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind all participants that some of the statements we will be making today are forward-looking. These matters involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our results to differ materially from those projected in these statements. For more information, please refer to our latest 10K filing and other SEC filings which can be found on our website our comments today also include non-GAAP financial measures additional details and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in our fourth quarter and full year earnings press release which is on our website with that I will turn the
call over to Olivier thank you James ladies and gentlemen thank you for joining us today i will begin by reviewing our fourth quarter performance followed by an update on market conditions and the unique opportunities we see developing for our business i will then share outlook for the first quarter and expectations for the full year 2026. stefan will then provide additional details on our financial results and finally we will open the line for your questions let's begin we ended the year with strong operational and financial performance in the first quarter achieving sequential revenue growth margin expansion and substantial cash flow generation this performance reflects the breadth of our portfolio and impact of our strategy in a challenging macro environment sequentially we will increase by nine percent driven by high single digit growth internationally and meetings growth in north america excluding Champagnex, organic revenue increased by 7% internationally and 6% in North America. We saw sequential growth across all our geographies for the first time since the second quarter of 2024. This demonstrates that global upstream activity has stabilized, with key markets showing early signs of a rebound. This helped us to deliver approximately 500 million of organic revenue growth this quarter, in addition to a roughly $300 million contribution from Champagnex, resulting from an extra amount of consolidation. Let me briefly discuss a few allies from the quarter. First, we benefited from stronger end product sales in production systems globally, higher exploration data sales, and strong demand for digital operation across all areas. Second, activity increased across the Middle East, led by Saudi Arabia and with momentum in UAE due to a combination of sustained gas development and increased oil field intervention activity. Third, we delivered strong results across Asia, with increased activity in Western Asia, East Asia, and Indonesia as this market continues to benefit from offshore gas development. Notably, this quarter also marked the return of growth in Saudi Arabia and across sub-Sahara Africa with flat revenue in Mexico. these three basins actually accounted for the entire organic revenue decline for in the full year of 2025 and directionally we expect activity in this market to improve as we moved throughout 2026. turning to the divisions in the fourth quarter production system and digital led the way where reservoir performance was up slightly and world construction revenue was steady the strength in production system was driven by increased demand for pollution chemicals after lift and process technology and solutions as well as backlog execution completions and one subsidy when excluding the shop next contribution this division still grew by double digits sequentially and maintain its momentum with several contract awards during the quarter as you can see from today's highlights digital also continue to grow at a healthy rate driven by strong growth in digital exploration with year-end sales in the Gulf of America, Brazil, and Angola, as well as robust increase in digital operation and platform application. Digital annual recurring revenue surpassed $1 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15%. We also announced several exciting digital milestones in the fourth quarter, including launching TELA, an authentic AI system to transform the upstream energy sector and forming a partnership with VATNOC to launch an AI-powered production system optimization platform. These underscored the opportunity for AI to continue to reshape industry operations. Meanwhile, in reservoir performance, sequential growth was the result of increased simulation activity in Middle East and Asia and higher intervention activity in Europe and Africa. In well-construction, higher offshore drilling activity in North America and Europe and Africa was offset by declines in some land markets. Additionally, our fourth quarter revenue benefited from resumption of pollution in the APS project of Ecuador. Overall, our fourth quarter results are a positive indication of the opportunity that lies ahead. I want to thank the entire SAB team for delivering excellent performance for our customers throughout 2025 and finishing the year on such a strong note. Turning to the market environment, near-term oversupply may continue to exert downward pressure on community price throughout the first half of 2026, while elevated geopolitical uncertainties should provide a price flow. EMP operators are therefore expected to remain cautious and to backlog their 2026 budget. As supply and demand continues to rebalance into 2027, conditions will likely support a gradual recovery in upstream investment with activity in key international markets and offshore deployer exiting 2026 at higher level than 2025 indeed economic growth increasing population and large-scale manufacturing and infrastructure investments partially in the u.s and china related to ai will inherently drive more demand in both oil and gas coupled with the natural decline of existing oil and gas assets we believe this would be the key drivers for the rebalancing of supply and demand in the meantime our customers are focused on delivering the lowest cost incremental bias this means capturing efficiencies at scale and in our view that requires more technology more integration and more digital solutions today operators are increasingly prioritizing performance assurance across the asset life cycle reducing development timelines and accelerating optimization through digital solutions. SLB is uniquely positioned to develop value in this endowment by integrating equipment with intelligent and autonomous digital capabilities to reduce downtime, improve efficiency, and increase productivity as witness by a rapid uptake in our digital operations. Additionally, pollution recovery has emerged as a critical domain for value creation, not only in brownfield and mature assets, but also across greenfield developments and time hacks. This is not an either-or proposition between CapEx and OPEX, but an opportunity to increase our share of CapEx spend and capture OPEX-wide space with new solutions. With SLB's expanded production portfolio, including the addition of Champanex, we are uniquely positioned to meet the developing demand in the production space. Globally, the international markets are stabilizing and trending upwards directionally, with Latin America and Middle East and Asia leading the rebound in 2026. Regionally, Middle East continues to represent the largest international market with positive investment outlook. Indeed, there is a resurgence of oil production across the region driven by OPEC plus policy, while gas remains a strategic priority to meet regional demand and long-term capacity expansion. In 2025, we witnessed double-digit growth in the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, which was more than offset by the decline in Saudi Arabia. In 2026, the Middle East market will be characterized by rebounds in drilling and workover activity in Saudi Arabia, with recounts potentially returning to early 2025 levels by the end of 2026, and this has already begun. Offshore also continues to present compelling long-term growth opportunities for SLB, particularly in deep water where we expect activity to inflect toward the end of 2026 as wide space subsides with one subsea we have the unique ability to combine subsea processing capabilities digital solution and slb's integrated port-to-process expertise across subsea intervention and integrated world construction could create differentiated value for customers specific to the subsea market more than 500 subsidiaries are expected to be awarded across 2026 and 2027 about 20 percent higher than 2025 run rate and this is an opportunity we aim to capitalize on in 2025 one subsidy was about approximately four billion dollar in subsidy bookings and we see a path for cumulative bookings exceeding nine billion dollars the next two years supported by this tendering activity finally we're excited about the strong progress in our data center solution business since it launched less than two years ago this year we plan to expand our range of offering our customer base and the geography we serve paving the way for future growth the opportunity is growing faster than anticipated and we expect to exceed the year at the quarterly revenue run rate of 1 billion dollar per year overall slb is clearly positioned to fully benefit from a rebound international activity as supply demand rebalance supported by ongoing investments for oil capacity gas expansion project and a constructive long-term outlook for deepwater. Regional activity dynamics will further reinforce this favorable directional trajectory beginning in 2026. Let me now share our outlook for the year. The headwinds we face in 2025 in certain markets may become tailwinds for our business this year. We anticipate this will translate into higher fourth quarter revenue exit rate in 2026 compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. For the full year, assuming all price remains range bound in the high 50s to low 60 range, we expect 2026 revenue to be between $36.9 billion to $37.7 billion. In North America, we will benefit from the addition of seven months of activity from Champagnex, stronger offshore activity tied to customer plans, and accelerated growth in data centers, while upstream land activity will continue to decline year-on-year. In international markets, revenue is expected to trend upwards over the year, resulting in a slight year-over-year increase. Growth will come from Latin America and the Middle East and Asia, while Europe and Africa is anticipated to decline slightly. Let me now describe how these dynamics will unfold across the divisions. In digital, revenue is expected to go at the same pace as 2025, driven by digital operations production system will increase mostly benefiting from the full year of champagne extra revenue as our performance will be flattish while well construction will decline slightly revenue in the all over category will be flat year on year considering the loss of revenue from the divested palliser asset will be offset by growth in the data center solutions this revenue outlook translates into adjusted ebitda between 8.6 billion to 9.1 billion for my with margins remaining in line with full year 2025 levels finally with visibility into another year of strong cash flow will return more than four billion dollar to shareholders in 2026 to the combination of the increased dividend that we announced this morning and share repurchase turning to the first quarter we anticipate revenue to decline by high single digits sequentially similar to the prior year due to outsize year-end product sales and project milestones in production system in the prior quarter. We also expect adjusted EBITDA margin to decrease by 150 to 200 basis points versus the prior quarter. This seasonal dip will be followed by a rebounding activity during the second quarter with further expansion into the second half driven primarily by international markets. Finally, before I end Let me briefly touch on Venezuela. SLB is the only international service company actively operating in Venezuela today, as we are delivering a diverse set of services for NIOC under their license. With nearly a center of experience in Venezuela, we did maintain active facilities equipped by local personnel on the ground. Historically, we have been in the country, and we remain confident that with appropriate licensing safety parameters and compliance measure in place we can rapidly ramp up activities in support of the oil and gas industry in venezuela we're excited and we are already receiving a lot of inquiries from our customers i will now turn the call over to stephan to discuss our financial
results in more detail thank you olivier and good morning ladies and gentlemen fourth quarter However, earnings per share, excluding charges and credits, was $0.78. This represents an increase of $0.09 sequentially and a decrease of $0.14 compared to the fourth quarter of last year. We recorded $0.23 of net charges during the fourth quarter. This includes an $0.11 goodwill impairment charge relating to our carbon capture business, $0.08 of merger and integration charges, $0.07 related to workforce reductions, and $0.03 of overcharges. Offsetting these charges is a $0.06 credit relating to the reversal of a valuation allowance that was recorded against certain deferred tax assets. Overall, our fourth quarter revenue of $9.7 million increased $817 million or 9% sequentially. Approximately $300 million of this increase is due to an additional amount of activity from the acquired ChampionX businesses. Excluding the impact of this transaction, SLB's fourth quarter global revenue increased 6% sequentially. The sequential revenue step-up was higher than expected and was driven by strong year-end digital sales significant backlog deliveries and project milestones in production systems as well as higher reservoir performance activity in international markets fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin of 23.9 percent increased 83 basis points sequentially primarily driven by very strong digital performance margin growth during the quarter was however constrained by a loss in carbon capture project that negatively impacted margins by approximately 50 basis points let me now go through the fourth quarter results for each division fourth quarter digital revenue of 825 million increased 25 percent sequentially while pre-tax operating margin expanded 557 basis points to 34%. These results were driven by stronger end sales in digital exploration and increased revenue in both digital operations and platforms and applications. Notably, for the full year, digital revenue of 2.7 billion grew 9%. The combination of its growth rate and the full EBITDA margin of 35 percent well exceeded the widely recognized rule. In addition, digital annual recurring revenue surpassed one billion dollars, reflecting year-on-year growth of 15 percent. Finally, trading 12-month net recurring revenue was 103 percent at the end of the fourth quarter. Reservoir performance revenue of 1.7 billion increased four percent sequentially, driven by strong international activity, particularly in Saudi Arabia, East Asia, Qatar, Indonesia, and Guyana. Pre-tax operating margin of 19.6% increased 105 basis points, largely due to a favorable activity mix in the Middle East. While construction revenue of $2.9 billion decreased 1% sequentially, primarily driven by declines in Middle Eastern Asia, while pre-tax operating margin of 18.7% was slightly down. Production systems revenue of $4.1 billion increased 17% sequentially, reflecting a full quarter of activity from ChampionX. Excluding the impact of this acquisition, production systems revenue increased 11%, driven by strong sales of completions and artificial lift, as well as project milestones in process technologies, subsea, and values. Pre-tax operating margin of 16% increased 20 bellies points due to improved profitability in completions and production chemicals.
Now turning to liquidity.
During the fourth quarter, we generated 3 billion of cash flow from operations and 2.3 billion of free cash flow. The strong performance was due to the unwinding of working capital on significant customer collections and reduced inventory driven by year-end product deliveries for the full year we generated free cash flow of 4.1 billion marking the third year in a row with free cash flow at or above 4 billion dollars As a result, net debt reduced by $1.8 billion during the quarter to end the year at $7.4 Capital investments, including capex and investments in APS projects and exploration data, were $716 million in the fourth quarter and $2.4 billion for the full year. For the full year, we returned a total of $4 billion to our shareholders, with approximately 2.4 billion in stock report chases and 1.6 billion in dividend looking ahead let me now provide some additional color on our outlook for 2026 building on the details olivier shared earlier we expect revenue to benefit from a full year of champion x which will result in incremental revenue of approximately 1.8 billion in 2026. this increase will be partially offset by the effects of the 2025 divestitures of our interest in the palliser APS project in Canada and of our rig business in the Middle East these two businesses accounted for approximately 350 million in combined revenue in 2025 as Olivier mentioned adjusted EBITDA margin for 2026 will be relatively consistent with to 2025 levels, with differing dynamics by division. Digital margin will increase likely year on year on continued top line growth. Production systems margin will increase, primarily driven by synergies from the ChampionX acquisition, where we still expect to achieve approximately half of the 400 million of total synergies by the end of 2026, 30 million of which were achieved in 2025. About 75% of the synergies will benefit production systems, with the remaining portion benefiting web construction and reservoir performance. The positive effect of ChampionX synergies on production system margins will be partially upset by unfavorable technology mix within the division. In reservoir performance and web construction, despite activity levels stabilizing, margins will be done year on year due to activity mix and pricing headwinds in select markets. From a below-the-line perspective, corporate costs will increase year-on-year, driven by an incremental $70 million of intangible asset amortization expense as a result of a full year of ChampionX. Additionally, we expect our effective tax rate to be approximately 20%, representing a slight increase from 2025. While we expect overall activity to stabilize and increase from today's level in certain key international markets, we will remain disciplined in our capital allocation. In this regard, we expect our total capital investments to be approximately $2.5 billion in 2026. This should lead to another year of strong free cash flow generation. As a result, today, we announced a 3.5% dividend increase, and we expect to return more than $4 billion to our shareholders in 2026 through a combination of dividends and stock buybacks. We are currently targeting to buy back the same $2.4 billion that we repurchased in 2025. However, this amount could increase as the year unfolds depending on our free cash flow generation progress and our visibility on the business outlook. I will now turn the conference call back to Olivier.
Thank you, Stéphane. I believe, Megan, that we are ready for the Q&A session.
Operator
We will now begin the Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Steve Richardson from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.
Morning, Steve. I was wondering if we could talk a little bit about capex. I appreciate you've given some outlook here on 2026. There seems to be something with investors of an old rule of thumb about your capex leading revenue expectations. I thought it would be helpful if you could maybe give us some context around the trend line of CapEx, but also how is the capital intensity of your forward business different than perhaps it was in the past?
Thanks for the question. Yes, so we increased CapEx slightly compared to last year in total with APS and exploration to 2.5 billion, as I just said. We think this is what we need to operate this year and to capture new opportunity as activity recovers gradually throughout the year, particularly in the international market. So, yes, compared to the past, our capital efficiency has improved quite a bit in the last few years. We can do more with less, basically, but clearly we will not miss any opportunity if activity recovers faster. We want to be ready for the ramp-up, and we'll bring more equipment and tools as needed. By division, clearly, reservoir performance is probably the highest capital intensity, followed by web construction and production systems, especially with the addition of Champion X as quite lower capital intensity.
Thank you. And on the Middle East, your comments are appreciated about the other regions picking up the slack in Saudi and your view on the full year improving, I was wondering if you could talk, what we're seeing is the IOCs are seeing a lot more opportunity across North Africa and the Middle East. And I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about your, you know, your mix or your expectation of your kind of customer mix as you go into 26 and how much of that is driving some of this optimism on improvement versus some of your traditional customers and the national oil companies.
No, first, I would come out to reinforce the trust and the confidence we have in our national company to continue to execute the capital program. And I think, indeed, we are foreseeing and already witnessing the rebound of the Saudi Reagan during and work of activity, which is very favorable. And I think, as I said, coming from a deep in 2025, bounding at the end of 2026 to, as we expect, to the level of entry of 2025, which is a V-shaped recovery. I think that will set the year very well and also the 2027 is a much stronger year going forward. So beyond that, obviously, the region still continues momentum, high momentum in Kuwait, in UAE, and has been witnessing significant growth. But coming to international, indeed, Libya, I think, is attracting this conference this week and next week, and Libya is attracting a lot of investment, and we have been the early benefiter of this, and we see Libya's high trajectory of growth We have seen it in the last couple of years, and we foresee this will continue well into 2026 and 2027, driven by investment coming back in-country from an international company. Algeria has been successfully in the licensing round, and I think it's exploring unconventional in the south, and also getting additional independence coming back into country. So we see a rebound in Algeria that will strengthen in 2027. Egypt, Egypt in the region, I think is back in offshore. Additional rigs will mobilize in deep water offshore Egypt as well as in Egypt due to the support that the government has provided and again the return of investment into Egypt. And finally, Iraq, I think, has been an hour of growth last year and will continue to be significant going forward for Iraq is where some international companies are investing. And I think we are associated with this directly. So we have a strong exposure in all of this market where international companies are joining. And finally, I would say that the unconventional UAE is a place where newcomers are appraising the resource and ready to scale their investment from appraisal in 26 to 27 developments going So, a combination of oil attractiveness in the region, Libya, Iraq, particularly for international company, and gas in the region, Qatar obviously steady, but also the upcoming UAE and unconventional, and deep water offshore is made. So, that's the template, and I've said the favorable outlook from NOC and international company in the Middle East.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of James West with Mellius Research. Your line is open.
Thanks. Good morning, Olivier, Stéphane. Morning, James. So Olivier, curious, so with the headwinds bottoming here, you know, Saudi, Mexico, some of the white space in deep water, sub-Saharan Africa, and everything looking kind of up and to the right, how are you thinking about the exit rate for 26 versus the exit rate we saw in 25? Certainly, it's going to be higher, but if you give us some observations or thoughts on
kind of magnitude of how this upcycle will begin. I think first, I think we have gathered into our prepared remark that we expect the fourth quarter of 2026 to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2025. And this will be led by the international rebound. Secondly, as we gathered the first quarter as a marked decline compared to last year before, we'll be seeing a gradual recovery, again driven mostly by international markets throughout the year. That is setting the scene, as we said, for 2027 to be favorable, driven by first and foremost continuous regain momentum in Middle East with the addition of the rebound activity in Saudi and the combination of what the factor mentioned before. Asia I think has been on a momentum. Latin America as well. I think a bit the offshore base in Latin America or a bit in Argentina. We are experiencing a slight rebound of Mexico driven by deep water activity in mexico coming back and we will see we expect that gradually and into 2027 the activity in in the subsah deep water will resume to higher level visibly higher level the combination of fid in namibia in mozambique in angola and the early pickup of activity in Nigeria are already showing sign of a very promising 27-28 cycle so directionally international gradually recovering and exit rate in the end of this year to be driven by international addition so that it will result into Q4 this year being higher than last year okay that's helpful
thank you thanks Olivier and then maybe a follow-up on the digital side of the business obviously strong results in the fourth quarter, but my sense is we're still fairly under-penetrated on Lumi and Delphi and the cloud platforms and the AI platforms that you have. My numbers may be a little bit dated, but I think 300 or so customers out of your 1,500 or so customers were on the cloud as of maybe a year ago. So could you give us a sense of kind of where that stands now or where you see that heading? I'm assuming everybody eventually goes there. Most everybody goes there. But just the magnitude of what that could mean for your digital business, I'm assuming it's pretty accretive.
No, long term, I think we believe that the potential of digital to transform our industry, from the asset team productivity to the efficiency of digital operations between doing or producing assets, I think is very significant. I think we are just touching the early innings of that transformation, and we're using a multi-pronged approach towards this first and foremost strategy built on a platform approach to this, and I think you mentioned the combination of Delphi, Lumi, and Tera, and we have been, indeed, gradually gaining a lot of traction for customers to recognize that a platform is the approach to have the most benefit to combine the geosounds, the production, the drilling, the operation, workflow improvement that everybody is looking for but if we look at the momentum that that we are benefiting from today the momentum comes from a digital operation that i think you have seen is is getting significant benefit because it's uh it's where i think the river hits the ground and where the customer are seeing and materializing the savings in training performance in in production and peter reduction in production optimization and we have anything from that but obviously we are pursuing adoption of data and ai lumi which we launched four or five quarter ago it's already having more than 50 customers of another option telar that we launched less than three months ago has already more than a dozen customers that are engaging and and working with first to create this foundation model that can transform their old geoscience workflow or that can automatically detect and and optimize autonomously some producing assets as you have seen with uh at knock announcement that we have done so well uh we are pleased with progress surprised with the attack on digital operation believe this momentum continues and very confident that the secular trend that the industry is uh is continuing to witness will benefit our platform approach and that lumi delphi and tella will be at the core of this industrial transformation going forward. Thanks, Olivier. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question will go to the line of Aaron Gerairo with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Yeah, good morning, Olivier. I was wondering if you could frame your thoughts on the near-term and longer-term opportunity for SLB in Venezuela. You mentioned you're the only international service company now actively operating, but talk to us about what type of product lines could benefit if we do get a revitalization of the oil industry in Venezuela.
Obviously, we have to preface this with the condition, the right condition, including licensing, including payments, and the operating license would have to be put in place. But assuming that the conditions are set for investment to resume and to accelerate not only from the customer that we are serving today but from new customers re-entering or entering the country we have kept we have historically been the largest supplier the largest partner of the national company and the largest supplier in in service technology in country historically we had had about 10 years ago more than 3,000 people, and we were recording visibly more than $1 billion revenue at that time. So we have the track record in integration. We have a unique subsurface digital leading role that we had at that time that we can resume. And we have today a significant set of assets that are ready to be deployed across the drilling services across production with no less than 10 production set across rig operation with rigs that we are ready to mobilize and i think across intervention across drilling for infield drilling or production optimization we believe to have a capacity in country and we believe that we have the access to the village nationals about 80 of them already in country we have more than 1 000 venezuela and american country employing the company and and and some of them will be welcoming uh to work back in venezuela and we have almost 2000 uh uh alumni that i think uh we have uh kept in touch with that uh will be uh also uh uh ready to uh ready to be uh joining us as we move forward So as I said, long term, under the right condition, we can be the leading partner for our customers there. And I think I've quoted the number we were before, and I think the future will tell us when and as this can accelerate. But we are ready, and we are already receiving a lot of incoming calls, as I would say, to explore options going forward.
Olivier, my follow-up is wondering if you could talk a little bit about your data center
infrastructure business. You mentioned that you expect to reach a $1 billion run rate in revenue, if I heard you correct, by your end. Can you talk a little bit about the solutions you're providing today and maybe how you're thinking about organic and even inorganic opportunities
to grow that business over time? Yeah, I think, and you heard me correctly, I think this is amazing what we have put together in less than 18 months. I think the rate of growth, the customer engagement that we are getting, the traction we are getting with hyperscalers, I think is amazing. And yes, we put together a setup that is focused on the modular manufacturing capability and co-engineering of data center solution from several and and cooling cooling solution and we are aiming at increasing not only our scope but also our footprint as we have announced last quarter doubling our capacity to respond to the pipeline and to respond to the backlog we have and we continue to be expanding both in term of scope in term of around this manufacturing design capability for modular data center solution we will be this year going and going internationally we'll be this year adding new customers to our portfolio and preparing ourselves to uh go in in uh throughout the year in 2027 uh one billion dollar is their own rate but we'll be significantly above this in 2027 and we believe that we see we see growth through the rest of the decade internationally and indeed as we explore and respond to the requests from our customers who are looking for integrator in this space we will look for complementing our current capability that we have built organically and to look at what could help complement this and accelerate our market penetration and make us as a fulfilled partner for our customers going forward, technology throughout the life cycle of the data center for construction and operation.
Great. Thanks. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of David Anderson with Barclays. Your line is open.
Great. Thank you. Good morning, Olivier. You know, if we compare Schlumberger today or SLB, if we compare SLB today versus 10 years ago, in addition to digital, I think the biggest shift is now the emphasis on production and recovery. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more specifically about the growth opportunity in the next few years as we think about one sub-sea, Champion X, artificial lift. And if I think about one sub-sea, I'm thinking about backlog conversion accelerating. You know, in Guiana, Venezuela, potentially Venezuela could be growth engines and chemicals. and then artificial up in the Middle East. Could you sort of frame this growth opportunity for us over the next few years on this side of your business?
No, absolutely, Dave. I think professional recovery, as we call it, is a new chapter for the company, something that we have decided strategically to invest because we believe that first is a market that has significant opportunity for value creation through technology, through integration, through digital. And we believe that we needed to own and have access to a broader portfolio. Hence, the access to the Champagnex, Chemical, OPEX, and Fulfilled Lyft technology and the digital platform addition that put us very well placed into that market. So now, the customer response is very positive. And indeed, I think if you look at the priority of our customers today into a challenging community on pricing environment, it's all about getting more from the assets that they have on the production. and hence the return of the higher barrel for lower cost is a priority. So we're getting a lot of intake into our lift solution, into our digital production, as you have heard, and indeed trying to realize and realizing today the benefit of chemistry, chemistry for not only production assurance, but also chemistry for reservoir performance or recovery. So we believe that the integrated capability that we have built together will give us a possibility to create solution for the market, end-to-end solution that will help to improve the performance of existing producing assets, will help transform existing assets with a solution for recovery, solution for optimization, and will help across to bring digital solutions. So, yes, leaf solution in the metro basin or into the most producing oil basin in the world, including Middle East. Yes, subsea as a beneficiary for the long-term deep water, but also the boosting processing capability we have in subsea that are quite unique and contribute to this recovery production gain and goal we have. So, yes, it is a new story for us. It's a new chapter. We're excited. customer feedback feedback is is very strong because they believe that they need somebody that have the subsurface have the technology and has the full integrated portfolio to respond to the transformation of production recovery landscape as we have contributed and let the industry transform the well construction or exploration historically that makes a lot of
sense. Shifting gears a little bit to another area of potential growth in geothermal. You've been dabbling there for a number of years, but now, as you noted in the release here, you're working with ORMAT on a pilot project, I believe, later this year in enhanced geothermal. It looks a lot of this, when we look at geothermal, a lot of this sounds a lot like shale in the early 2000s. We know the resources there, but it's a matter of process and technique to solve for the economics do you agree with that conceptually and and and where's your confidence that this can be scaled up to create say 100 100 plus megawatt you know geothermal plants in the
next few years but let me know absolutely i think uh uh dave i think let me first step back and explain the reason why we have partnered with omat and the potential within this partnership first is to put together the two leading companies in their field. We are subsurface leader in geothermal, helping to characterize the geothermal source and then develop the wells and develop the solution to produce the heat and the hot water from those wells. And our math is leaders into building geothermal power plants and understanding the full life cycle. So putting this together and providing the industry for one integrated offering, I think, was very well received by the industry, and will help accelerate providing conventional geothermal, bridge power, or base power for some of the data center in the future. So that's clearly one, the first aspect. The second, obviously, we have put this together because we believe that we want to together optimize, explore, and optimize through a development of an asset or two assets in the future in a near future into the unconventional geothermal. And yes, we believe this is a field that has significant potential, but we want to do it right. We want to do science. We want to do technology. We want to do digital modeling of the process so that we get it right and we understand how to scale it economically, how to make it viable, how to make it safe, and then how to offer it together to the market in the near future. So that's the ambition. So we have done this for a reason. And I think we will be developing these assets. We'll be experimenting in this asset, appraising, and then getting ready for with technology, digital and with joint offering to offer this at scale to the market in the U.S. and beyond.
Very exciting. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Neil Mehta with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Yeah, thank you so much, Olivia and team. I guess the first question is more of a macro question, Olivia. You have a unique perspective on this big debate that's in the market right now about how much OPEC spare capacity really lives there in markets like the Middle East. And, you know, of course, recognizing that there's probably limitations about what you could say, your perspective on that question, I think would be helpful for us as we think about the back end of the oil curve.
I think you have been reading what I'm reading, and I think I don't want to reveal more, but I think OPEC Plus has been unwinding 2.2 million buyers. And I think when you fast forward in a year from now, when the unbalance that still exists in today will start to subside, and then the market will balance itself, I don't think there will be much spare capacity available, side of which you see by the reinvestment into oil capacity sustenance, investment that are happening across the Middle East, and all intervention and intervention activity in which we have a strong exposure is benefiting from this. So yes, I don't think you have some OPEC member beyond the Middle East that are not necessarily having an easy path towards sustaining their existing production. So OIN, I think it bodes very well to focus on production recovery, which is focusing on providing a technology and integrated capability to sustain production and enhance recovery. And I think that's where we will see adoption of this. But I don't think there is significant spare beyond what has been released back to the Hence, the market will tighten in rebalance into 27 and beyond. Hence, we set the condition for a better outlook as an investment backdrop for an industry from 27 and beyond.
Yeah, that makes sense to us. And then another market I would love to get your perspective on is Mexico. Olivia, this is probably the most constructive I've heard you on Mexico in a little bit, that we're in a bottoming phase and maybe even a cash recovery phase. Your perspective on that market and how it should evolve from here as we think about SLP.
Yeah, the market that we say has normalized from a market that has dropped significantly and has had the need for getting the confidence of the whole industry to reinvest. I think it has normalized in the last few months. I think we anticipate it to be steady from the land activity activity uh for the first of all uh short to midterm and we expect the conditions are gradually in place getting in place for reinvestment going forward in 2000 in 2026 however where we see the upside is in the offshore activity in in mexico where the deep water asset that we are developing with uh that is being developed by the which side will give us an upside uh whereas the the activity in land now will make the assumption it is steady uh but uh to start to uh to uh strengthen as we
Operator
move into 2027. thank you sir thank you thank you your next question comes from the line of Mark Bianchi with TD Cowan. Your line is open. Hey, thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask
we've got these activity and good morning. You've got these activity increases in your outlook for 26 for certain international markets. Earlier, I think a few months ago, there was some discussion of some pricing potential weakness. Can you talk about what that looks like today and what your
expectation is embedded in the outlook here yeah i think first first to come on that i think the industry has been under pricing pressure uh in the last couple of years starting with north america and i don't see once you change there i think uh although we believe in north america we are shifted to the mix of the portfolio we have an exposure where data center and digital and our exposure in in deep water and go from my guys proportionally uh bigger and also the OPEX exposure where Champanex is a bit of a shield towards some of the pricing pressure in North America. Internationally, the matter has been, and I keep repeating every time I get to comment on this, has remained highly competitive for a large tender in the international markets. And the market has been keeping pressure, considering the market has been declining the last 18 months or 12 months in the international market and the pricing pressure has been sustained and in some critical market and we have been responding with this to this pressure when we felt it was the appropriate things to do to keep passing into the market at the same time i think we are able to maintain our margin steady in 2026 compared to 2025 building on the and our shop like synergy building on the on the digital growth margin active business and therefore to are doing to continue to use technology performance as differential to protect where we can margin against the pricing
pressure thank you for that and the other question I had was related to the offshore outlook so you've talked about an expectation for improvement in offshore and you know i think if we go back a year or two um there was an expectation for offshore improvement that didn't really materialize so what are you seeing now that that you think is different from that prior period and gives you the confidence to to make those comments no the
comments i'm making is that i believe that the fid and the booking uh would improve in 2026 setting the right the right setup and context for 2027 2028 offshore cycle rebound whether this is material in 2026 yes in certain markets uh in east asia the activity of indonesia uh the market will uh will strengthen in in deep water and i think this reflecting to uh to this year In South Africa, this is more a trend of FID, of project from Namibia to Angola and Mozambique that will set the context for a marked rebound going forward. And this FID happening as we speak, being negotiated and being pending. And in America, I think the continuous momentum in Brazil, in Guiana, Suriname, and I think are here to stay with the metro basin, Gulf of America, metro basin of the North Sea remaining steady somehow, although with a slight decline in the North Sea. So we believe that the FID, the economics are favorable, and the pipeline of FID across Africa and Asia are set to create a rebound of activity going forward as we turn into 2037. Thank you very much. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your last question comes from the line of Scott Gruber with Citigroup.
So I want to come back to the data center solutions business, Livia, you mentioned expanding the business abroad, but does the billion dollar target capture any of that international growth opportunity or would that be future upside and how quickly could this materialize and ultimately, you know, as you leverage your global relationships, you know, could the international opportunity become even larger than your u.s business difficult to say whether
it could become larger but easy to tell you that it will grow and this year will be the first the first step into establishing ourselves in in asia and to provide this modular manufacturing solution to our customer there also we initiate a partnership to design a next generation data center in one country in the asia region and then we expect to also look at our relationship to embed and go further including middle east in the near future so these are the these are the place where we have ambition to uh to leverage our hyperscaler relationship and our modular manufacturing capability ability to source locally ability to manufacture everywhere i think it's something unique that not so many companies can do and scale and replicate what we have done in the last 18 months. So that's what we look forward and that's where we're excited about the international But the U.S. is still the hot market and the U.S. is where we believe we have the most exciting pipeline in 26 and 27 coming our way and will not be the market.
I got it. Appreciate that color. And I want to come back to the question Stephen asked at the beginning on CapEx. So your $2.5 billion of CapEx this year will support the second half growth rate that you'll achieve, which we led by digital and data center solutions, some contribution from the But overall, the capital intensity of the portfolio is improving. So my question is, can you sustain similar growth rate for a couple of years into the future at a CapEx level that's still broadly around $2.5 billion given those kind of less capital intensive drivers of growth or do you think capex would need to keep creep a bit higher
look as i said before we'll do what it takes to to not miss any opportunity but again we have really uh improved our cap our capital efficiency over the last five to six years so we can really operate with less but if growth really comes at high growth rates we will have to increase beyond the 2.5 billion for sure but as a percentage of revenue that will still remain pretty low compared to uh to what we were doing before and still quite in the lower range of in the lower end of the range we had guided before five to seven percent of revenue that's that's excluding apps and exploration data so yes we'll increase as uh as necessary but uh it will go with increased cash flow as well and and some of the growth that we will be seeing is production and recovery as we uh as we uh elaborated on before as well as digital and that that doesn't require as much capex as uh as the web-centric businesses so this is how we can maneuver within that range basically
so it's without some acceleration in the kind of core business you would expect the capex to sales ratio to continue to improve over the next couple years is that fair it will be more or less
as a percentage of revenue it will stay within that that five to seven percent would guide it before but it's it's more below as you have seen we've been closer to five and seven so So we will be, we will remain at the low end of that range in the future.
Okay. I appreciate the call. Thank you.
Thank you, Scott. Ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, thank you. Thank you, Megan. Ladies and gentlemen, as we conclude today's call, I would like to leave you with the following takeaways. First, our strategy focused on production recovery, including Champanex. First, digital and data center solutions present new pathways for growth, supporting a full-year revenue and margin guidance. Second, I'm confident that we continue to generate strong cash flows, enabling us to return more than $4 billion of shareholder returns in 2026. Third, in the longer term, the outlook is becoming more positive for SLB. The recovery of Saudi Arabia, the positive pipeline in Subsea, the growth dynamic in both digital and data centers are all catalysts. and Venezuela represents an upside. In summary, the current cycle is recovering towards the strength of SLB. With this, I will conclude today's call. Thank you all for joining.
Operator
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.