Frontier Group Holdings, Inc. Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our third quarter 2025 earnings call. On the call with me in speaking order are Barry Biffle, Chief Executive Officer; Jimmy Dempsey, President; Bobby Schroeter, Chief Commercial Officer; and Mark Mitchell, Chief Financial Officer. Each will deliver brief prepared remarks, but before they do, I'll recite the customary safe harbor provisions. During this call, we will be making forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those predicted in these forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning risk factors, which could cause such differences are outlined in the announcement we released moments ago, along with reports we file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. We'll also be discussing non-GAAP financial measures, actual results of which are reconciled to the nearest comparable GAAP measure in the appendix of the earnings announcement. And as well, we'll be talking about stage adjusted unit metrics, which are based on 1,000 miles. So I'll give the floor to Barry to begin his prepared remarks. Barry?

Thanks, David, and good afternoon, everyone. We delivered third quarter results per share at the midpoint of our guidance range, demonstrating disciplined execution as we navigated competitive fare pressures and excess peak capacity through rigorous cost management. Operationally, our performance was noteworthy in September and October, ranking third and fourth, respectively, in completion factor among domestic carriers, underscoring our reliability and operational strength. Looking ahead, the competitive landscape is shifting in our favor. With our largest low-fare competitor significantly reducing capacity, we anticipate a more balanced supply-demand environment. This positions us to accelerate key commercial initiatives aimed at driving RASM growth and reinforcing our competitive advantage. Our strategy remains clear: to be the leading low-fare carrier in the top 20 U.S. metros. We are leveraging enhancements to our loyalty program and upgraded product offerings, including the rollout of first-class seating by spring, an important milestone in elevating customer experience and revenue opportunities. At the same time, we will continue to aggressively manage costs to preserve our industry-leading cost advantage, which is central to delivering sustainable margin improvement. I want to thank our 15,000 Team Frontier members, including pilots, flight attendants, mechanics, airport staff, and more, whose dedication enables us to deliver exceptional service and execute our strategy every day. I'll now turn the call over to Jimmy for a commercial review. Jimmy?

Thanks, Barry, and good afternoon, everyone. In the third quarter, total revenue was $886 million on 4% lower capacity year-over-year. Revenue per passenger rose to $106, up 1% from the prior year, supported by an 81% load factor, nearly 3 points higher than last year. RASM was $0.0914 and stage-adjusted RASM improved 2% year-over-year to $0.0876, reflecting disciplined capacity deployment. For the fourth quarter, we expect capacity to be roughly flat year-over-year with an average stage length of approximately 890 miles. Importantly, competitive seat capacity is projected to decline by 2 percentage points, including significant reductions by Spirit Airlines, which is exiting 36 overlapping routes and reducing frequencies by 30% across 41 others in December. This dynamic should drive sequential improvement in stage-adjusted RASM and supports our confidence as we plan for 2026. We expect to return to growth next year given the developing competitive landscape, and we'll provide formal 2026 capacity guidance on our next earnings update. To capitalize on emerging opportunities, we announced 42 new routes launching through early 2026, expanding our presence in major metro areas such as Atlanta, Baltimore, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas-Fort Worth, Detroit, Fort Lauderdale, and Houston, along with new international destinations, including Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas. These additions reinforce our commitment to scale and strengthen our network. Finally, I'm pleased to welcome Jeff Matthew as our new Chief Information Officer. Jeff brings deep experience leading large-scale IT organizations and will accelerate our digital transformation, enhancing customer engagement and driving efficiency. I'll now hand it over to Bobby to provide a brief loyalty update.

Thanks, Jimmy. The significant investments in our loyalty assets, including Frontier Miles, our co-brand credit card, Go Wild Pass, and Discount Den generated approximately $7.50 in revenue per passenger in the third quarter, up more than 40% year-over-year, driven by enhancements that resonate with higher income, higher credit customers. Frontier Miles now offers the most attainable elite status in the industry with meaningful benefits like premium seat upgrades, free bags, and unlimited companion travel. We've expanded redemption options through miles for bundles and improved boarding for our most loyal customers. In addition, cardholders received 2 free checked bags, a benefit we introduced last year that has been very well received, and we recently introduced free companion passes with the credit card. These initiatives are fueling engagement and position us to double loyalty revenue per passenger over time, creating a durable high-margin revenue stream. I'll turn it over to Mark now for the financial update.

Thanks, Bobby, and good afternoon, everyone. Recapping our cost performance during the third quarter. Our non-fuel operating expenses were $729 million, down 6% sequentially, driven largely by fleet impacts associated with spare engine inductions and related sale-leaseback financing gains. The increase in non-fuel expenses over the prior year quarter was primarily related to a one-time $38 million nonrecurring credit tied to a legal settlement recognized in the 2024 quarter and fleet-related growth. On a unit basis, adjusted CASM ex-fuel in the third quarter was $0.0753, 9% higher year-over-year due largely to a 15% reduction in aircraft utilization resulting from our disciplined capacity deployment primarily on off-peak days. Fuel expense was $234 million, down 10% year-over-year, driven mainly by a 5% decrease in the average fuel cost, 4% lower capacity, and slightly higher fuel efficiency. We generated 105 ASMs per gallon in the quarter, 2% higher than the corresponding '24 quarter. Third quarter net loss was $77 million, including $1 million of tax expense, resulting in a net loss per share of $0.34 at the midpoint of our guidance. We ended the quarter with $691 million in total liquidity; in addition, post-quarter end, we issued a $105 million par value note in a private placement that is secured by substantially all of the spare parts and tooling related to our fleet of A320 family aircraft. The note matures in 2032. Pro forma for this transaction, liquidity on September 30 was approximately 21% of trailing 12 months revenue. Briefly recapping fleet activity during the quarter, we took delivery of 2 A321neo aircraft, both financed with sale-leaseback transactions, bringing our total aircraft fleet to 166 at quarter end. We expect another 10 aircraft deliveries in the fourth quarter, our largest quarterly allocation of the year, comprised of 7 A320neos and 3 A321neos, all of which have committed sale-leaseback financing. Following the agreement with Pratt executed in July, we took delivery of 6 GTF spare engines in the third quarter, all of which were financed with sale-leaseback transactions. We expect to take delivery of another 10 GTF spare engines in the fourth quarter, which we also expect to finance with sale-leaseback transactions. Turning to guidance, as provided in this afternoon's announcement, we expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings between $0.04 and $0.20 per diluted share on capacity, which is expected to be roughly flat year-over-year. The average all-in fuel cost is expected to be $2.50 per gallon, which is $0.09 higher relative to the prior quarter forward curve indication. Our fourth quarter guidance reflects an expected improvement in competitive overlap capacity versus the prior year quarter, continued progress across key commercial initiatives, fleet-related financing activities, and jet fuel prices, which are elevated relative to the prior quarter guidance expectation. Lastly, we do not expect a material tax provision in the fourth quarter due to a cumulative tax loss carryforward, which will largely offset any tax expense. Thanks again, everyone. And operator, we're ready to begin the Q&A segment.

Our first question comes from Ravi Shanker of Morgan Stanley.

Just a couple of questions on the competitive capacity here. Obviously, you guys are being pretty disciplined right now with flat growth next quarter. But what's the rest of the industry potentially fills in for the capacity that's coming out here and we end up in roughly the same situation that we had before?

I don't think that's likely. Thanks for the question. Look, the capacity that's coming out right now is some of the lowest cost capacity and some of the lowest yielding customers. The only ones that could actually profit off that is us. So, I just don't see that being replaced by big airlines. It's not their business.

Understood. Maybe a quick follow-up. Kind of how long do you think the tailwind here lasts? And is this something that is really strong out of the gate kind of given the disruption? Or do you think it gets kind of better, if you will, from your perspective, the long way it goes on?

Well, I wish I knew the answer to the pace of that. I mean it's dribbling pretty good tailwind right now. Could that tailwind go from 30 miles an hour to 100 miles an hour? Possibly it increases, but we see a lot of tailwinds over the next year. At some point, it's going to change. But right now, we see a pretty good path to a very good environment for Frontier.

Our next question comes from Atul Maheswari of UBS.

I have a question on the government shutdown. There's just recent news that if a deal is not reached by November 7, we're looking at 10% cuts across the top 40 airports. If that were to come to pass, what would be the financial impact on Frontier? Presumably, this is good for RASM for the fourth quarter, but then you would end up carrying excess costs. So maybe can you help us dimensionalize relative to your current guidance, like how much of an incremental risk this would be?

We have just learned about this in the last 20 minutes, similar to you. My immediate thought is that we need to ensure we can accommodate all our customers. The good news is that we're currently in a low demand period in November. The peak demand, of course, is during Thanksgiving. Therefore, I believe we will be able to accommodate everyone. I would actually expect this to be generally positive due to the revenue per available seat mile we will generate with fewer flights. However, my larger concern is the disruption to customers. Nonetheless, I don't anticipate this having a major impact on us.

Okay. Got it. That's fair. And then as my follow-up, Boeing recently announced that is expecting certification to MAX 10 next year and with some aircraft in inventory that it already has that is ready to be delivered upon certification. So, assuming this does come to pass and this happens in '26 and the legacies get hold of this aircraft, they're likely to use this higher gauge asset to expand the basic economy type of offering, which directly competes with the product that you have in the marketplace. So, the question then is how much of a risk does this present to Frontier next year and beyond? And what would you do to counter this risk going forward?

I think the main risk is probably anyone holding the residual value of a 737-100. I don't think it's a challenge to us. I think if you look at the situation, we see less capacity in our markets, not more. And I don't see basic economy improving. I mean just think about that relatively definitive math. It doesn't improve your margins to expand basic economy selling product below your cost. So, I don't think that's going to be a major opportunity. You've seen across the industry, domestic profits have been under pressure. So, I think cooler heads are going to prevail on capacity over the next year. This may enable them to be more efficient, but I think you actually see the lesser efficient aircraft leave the United States.

Our next question comes from Brandon Oglenski of Barclays.

Comrades. Good afternoon and thanks for taking the question from the people of Comm Union of New York. Barry, well, there is going to be free bus travel here. So, I don't know that might be a competitive mode looking forward. But Barry, in all seriousness, can you talk to how Spirit cutting in November has maybe changed the pricing dynamic here closer in on the fourth quarter? Because I suspect that they were pretty close in booked to begin with.

Yes, we were very excited a couple of months ago when we noticed some changes on their end and saw a shift in bookings. However, around the second week of September, their shift in bookings led them to significantly reduce their fares. We experienced a notable decline in fares, which had been improving before that. During our last call, we reported year-over-year increases in advanced yields, but those have since decreased. Currently, fares are starting to recover. While September and October were negatively impacted, we are now entering a phase of capacity cuts. This should provide a temporary boost to their revenue per available seat mile (RASM) since they will consolidate flights, and it's beginning to have a significant impact on us. Although it may not heavily influence this quarter, they have recently exited five more cities, which suggests ongoing improvement, and we find this quite significant. Where they have reduced capacity, we have observed RASM improvements in the high single digits. This trend is likely to continue and will be very important for Frontier.

Okay. I appreciate that response. And you guys talked a lot about loyalty on this call. I mean can you give us your initial impact from Southwest maybe recently? And more importantly, especially as you look to launch First Class, like are you seeing more momentum on that angle?

Yes. So, look, I mean, we haven't gotten the benefit of First Class yet, but we'll work backward from your question, and Jimmy or Bobby can chime in. But First Class is going to be wildly accretive, right, because we haven't had that product, and we know the demand is there. So that's going to be worth several points next year. But I think if you look at the loyalty, there's no real benefit, I don't think necessarily from Southwest. It's mainly all the investments we've made over the last year. I don't know, Bobby, if you want to kind of add to that?

Yes. This is Bobby. So, we talked about what we added quite a bit in terms of benefits that we've had over the past really 1.5 years, two years, a lot of that actually kind of building up to this past year as well as we transformed what we're providing some of the elite tiers, the accessibility we're providing that. So, look, in the end, we've created a program that is the most rewarding in the sky. And it is something where people can get to these elite tiers much faster than you see with other airlines. They actually are getting those benefits where it might be more difficult to see those at other airlines as well. We've talked before, you get a much higher conversion rate on seat upgrades at 80% on our top tiers. They're getting 80% upgrades to our top premium seat upgrade there. So, they're also getting free bags, and we've added free companions on not only the higher elite tiers, but also that's unlimited companion travel, but also on the credit card, you're getting companion passes as you spend and hit certain milestones. So, just a lot that we've put into this, and you're seeing the engagement there. Look, you have a lot of people out there that are disenfranchised with their other programs, whether those are airlines or other types of travel programs or other credit cards. We're providing an incredible value there, and you're seeing people not only engage in terms of acquisition but also spend. I mean spend was up tremendously year-over-year because people are wanting to move up that ladder in terms of elite status because they see the benefits that they're getting.

And I would just add, I mean, and Brandon, you're old enough to remember, I mean, the Starwood program in the 2000s was just amazing, and they kind of used their costs and so forth to build that loyalty, and that credit card was one of the top-ranked cards consistently. And now that we've kind of got it underway, we sat down 1.5 years, two years ago and said, we've got the lowest cost. We should be able to provide the most value in loyalty. And so, we have made methodical changes over the last year, 1.5 years, as Bobby mentioned, and now we're starting to see the benefits of that. And it's early. But when you see a 40% jump to the loyalty ecosystem year-over-year, we're on a track. And so, we're doing in the $7, $7.5 range, and we can see that doubling in pretty short order. So, we're pretty excited about it. I think it's one of the key pillars to getting back to sustainable margins, but it's a big part of what we're doing. And the savings that people get are real. I mean, it's thousands of dollars a year that you can save if you use this card. And to Bobby's point, when he mentioned kind of the disenfranchised, what we're seeing is the customer that just flies a couple of times a year on one of the big airlines, they don't have the actual tier that they need to get really upgraded. They're #36 on the upgrade list. They never get upgraded. And so, when they take that spend and put it on our card, they actually get rewarded with real loyalty. They get real upgrades, and that upgrade is not going to be upfront plus next year; it's going to be first class. So – so, I think that we've just started. We're kind of in the first inning or two, but we are going to close the gap on loyalty revenues with the big guys, and this is going to be a material part of our discussions, I think, in the quarters to come.

Yes. Just a quick addition regarding First Class. We will be selling it, and we expect a significant portion of the revenue to come from customers purchasing it directly. This product gives customers who haven't been able to upgrade through other programs a chance to do so at a much lower rate. As a result, they'll be able to experience it sooner. We're really excited about this opportunity.

And #36 on the upgrade sounds good to me. I'm usually way behind that.

Our next question comes from Savi Syth of Raymond James.

This is Carter on for Savi. I was wondering what you guys are seeing on pricing in your Spirit overlap markets relative to your other markets more broadly? And are you seeing anything different in Fort Lauderdale where you guys most recently added service?

I mentioned earlier that we saw a decline in pricing after they filed, but now we are noticing a recovery. Our pricing has increased in those markets. While I wouldn’t say the situation is completely resolved, it's clear they are reducing capacity and withdrawing from certain areas, so there won't be any further pricing changes in some of those spots. Overall, I think things have stabilized.

Got it. And then just for my follow-up, I want to clarify, does your earlier comment about returning to growth in 2026 mean you're no longer planning on having flattish capacity through the first half of '26? Or is that more of just a comment of returning to growth in the back half?

It's a very dynamic situation right now. We're monitoring the competitive landscape, and depending on how that evolves, we can adjust our capacity accordingly. We believe there will be opportunities within our cost structure to replace that capacity in several areas, which will influence our growth. We will provide an update during our next call in Q1, as we expect most of these issues to be resolved by then.

Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg of Deutsche Bank.

This is Shannon Doherty on for Mike. Barry, earlier this year, we were talking about double-digit margins by the summer of '25. Obviously, Liberation Day threw a monkey wrench into that plan. But do you see a path back to double-digit margins in '26 with the current competitive landscape? And if so, can you help us bridge just there from today?

Well, look, I mean, we didn't plan on all of the things that happened in the turmoil in the front half of this year and what has happened. But I can tell you that as far as our pillars of kind of path back to sustainable profitability, look, I think doubling our loyalty revenues from where it is, introducing first class, getting that premium, getting kind of our fair share of that premium as well as the fair share of loyalty. I think the competitive capacity reduction, as we've talked about, I mean, that's going to be a huge tailwind for us going into next year. And then we're going to double down on our costs. I know everybody kind of accepts the inflation, but we're going to double down. We hope to have all that ready to lay out at the next call. But you're going to see kind of another wave of us kind of pushing further down on cost to ensure that we maintain a wide margin of cost advantage versus the industry. And we're going to continue to improve our operation. Our complaints are down dramatically year-over-year. We continue to be kind of 30%, 40% down every month year-over-year in complaints, and that's kind of tied to what's happened with our improvement in the operations. So, I'm not going to declare the day we're going to get back to any margin target, but I can tell you that there's plenty of fundamentals that are in our favor at this point.

And maybe a follow-up on like thinking our growth for next year. Will Spirit cutting deeper than 20% next year, maybe a lot more be the determining factor of unlocking growth again? I mean, clearly, you are carrying a lot of extra costs, taking down aircraft utilization and you want to get back to growth. So, I'm just trying to figure out what gets you there.

Yes, Shannon, it's Jimmy here. Look, we're watching what's happening in terms of network deployment across the industry, including Spirit at the moment. And there are certainly opportunities that are existing. You've seen us launch some stuff across the United States in the last couple of months that fill in for some capacity that we think is going to be adjusted in their network. Whether that drives material growth next year or not, we don't know. We've got to see how things develop in the next 2 or 3 months. Hence, we're kind of deferring to the next earnings call to give you an insight into our growth. But clearly, we have a substantial body of aircraft that we can deploy to infill for any disruptive capacity that comes out of the marketplace in the next couple of months. And so, we're positioned for that. As I said in the last earnings call, it does take time from a growth perspective to hire and train pilots and get them deployed in our network. And that's typically a 6- to 8-month process. And so, any meaningful growth will occur sometime Q2 or Q3 or Q4 next year, depending on our view over the next couple of months and what we want to do in terms of growing the airline into opportunities that crop up.

Our next question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth of Evercore ISI.

Just one question for me for the team. How has your thinking about consolidation of the ULCC sector evolved or changed over the last 90 days?

Good to hear from you, Duane. I think we are going to see less capacity in the United States, and this seems to be a domestic capacity issue rather than just specific to ULCCs. There will likely be significantly fewer seats overall. Consolidation is one way to address this, but it's not the only method. Additionally, there is another carrier, which is not a ULCC, that we believe will reduce its capacity significantly in the coming year. Overall, as more seats are removed, it should help improve the balance between supply and demand as we head into 2026.

Our next question comes from Scott Group of Wolfe Research.

This is Ryan Capozzi on for Scott. So, aircraft utilization has been down pretty significantly so far this year. Just curious how we should think about utilization levels into 4Q and really more so into next year?

Yes. I mean from a utilization standpoint, I mean, I think to Jimmy's point, when you look at the lead time that's needed to ramp that up, I mean, from the environment that we sit in today, the overall macro environment, I think you'll see consistency and where we've been Q3 to Q4 from a utilization standpoint. But then as both Jimmy and Barry have mentioned, as you look into '26, we need to evaluate what that landscape looks like and how we want to move forward with utilization. Obviously, the higher you're able to drive that, that brings down unit costs. So, there's positive there, but you just need to balance that with the larger macro.

Yes. To provide some context, we have two factors affecting the fleet. First, there is a delivery order book that can support growth, and second, we can optimize our asset usage. Over the past eight to nine months, we have reduced some utilization of our asset base. As we move into next year, you can expect growth primarily on peak days and off-peak days due to new aircraft deliveries, which will contribute positively to the business. We will have to consider whether to increase utilization as we look ahead to next year, depending on the competitive capacity environment.

Got it. Appreciate the color there. And then I guess on competitive capacity, I think you had mentioned 2 percentage points of improvement in 4Q. Any sense of what level of reductions you're expecting in 1Q here?

Look, we haven't quantified the level of reductions that we expect. As people solidify their schedules going into Q1, we'll have more of an insight into that in the coming month or 2.

Our next question comes from Jamie Baker of JPMorgan Securities.

This is James on for Jamie. A lot of questions about domestic capacity. Maybe just a question on the international routes you guys announced and what you're seeing there, particularly how RASM is trending into 4Q and 2026?

Yes. We have been seeing strong results and are pleased with the new routes, particularly the Latin America VFR routes launching during the peak holiday period. We are excited about the results we've observed so far.

Okay. Got it. For my second question, have you noticed smaller regional airlines entering the market in recent years? Specifically in the routes that Spirit exited, are any of those airlines coming in to fill the capacity you're now competing with?

No, we're not really seeing that. I think the landscape has become pretty clear. Frontier has been the one to outplay and outlast. So, I don't see a new entrant trying to come in on some of the things that we're doing.

Our next question comes from Tom Fitzgerald of TD Cowen.

I'm interested in the loyalty program and would like to know where you are seeing the strongest sign-ups, particularly in markets with a solid customer base or sufficient schedule density.

Yes. Look, it's obviously where we have bases. We've got 13 bases and then we've got large concentrations, right, in other cities, Raleigh, Baltimore, New York and so forth. But I mean, it's where you would expect. I mean customers, you've got to be able to earn it when you fly and you've got to be able to use it. So, it kind of fits our geography. But I think the big thing that's changed, I mean, obviously, to see this kind of growth when we're not actually growing the airline right now is actually really impressive.

Yes, to echo what Barry said, you'll see relevance in both the network and the program, where you're seeking aspirational opportunities and the benefits that come from them. We are addressing all these aspects.

That's really helpful. I’m curious about first-class seating as you continue to move upmarket. Do you expect any time for those products to mature in the market, or do you think they will succeed immediately? I wonder if you are planning to upgrade many seats at the beginning to familiarize customers with the product, and if that will impact revenue, especially if a significant portion involves upgrades or if there's a non-cash component.

Thanks. We're not expecting it to fully mature quickly; that could take years. However, you will see immediate benefits from the product transitioning to first-class from just having Upfront Plus. It took us about a year for Upfront Plus, where many people initially received it for free. Our top Elites will be upgraded, which will help enhance the loyalty asset ecosystem. As more people become familiar with the product, it will mature. We've seen a significant shift in the U.S. regarding leisure customers' willingness to pay for first-class seats. Given our cost structure, we can offer a first-class seat at a lower price than competitors. We anticipate that our pricing will often be below that of a premium economy seat, which could potentially double our revenue per passenger. This is beneficial for us and should be advantageous for consumers, although it may take 1 to 3 years to reach full maturity. Ultimately, this will have a substantial impact on our onboard revenue and credit card offerings. The frustration over upgrades at major airlines will turn into real value with Frontier's product, but time is necessary for its development.

Our next question comes from Daniel McKenzie of Seaport Global.

I just have 2 house cleaning questions and then one other question just following up on Duane's. But the house cleaning questions, it looks like full-time equivalents are down 6% year-over-year, but unit labor costs are up 10%. So I'm just wondering if you can square that dynamic. And I guess what I'm really wondering here is if it's just the beginning of sort of unit cost derisking for future labor deals. And then the second house cleaning question is, what percent of the network you expect will be premiumized, so to speak, by year-end '26?

There are several factors affecting salary, wage, and benefits. We paused hiring flight attendants, and looking at the numbers, we actually had the right amount of flight attendants, but we had a surplus of pilots. This is more of a mathematical detail. As we begin hiring flight attendants again, you'll see changes in those numbers. What was the second question?

Just the percent of the network that will be premiumized by year-end '26.

All of the fleet will feature the first-class product, with 8 seats per aircraft and approximately 202 planes in total. This represents about 4% of our total seats. The math is straightforward—if we take 4% of our seats and the revenue we receive from these is nearly double compared to our other offerings, once this is fully implemented, we will see a significant increase in our revenue per available seat mile.

Yes. Following up on Duane's question, some of Spirit's creditors are urging their management team for a merger, and Frontier seems to be one of the most logical airlines. My question is, considering the network overlap, has that opportunity passed for Frontier? Or if a merger became possible in the future, could that network overlap be managed with adjustments or concessions?

I'm not going to comment on merger. We spent a lot of time on this in the past. I've spoken about it a lot. We're not going to comment on I'll go back to, we see significant opportunity for Frontier focusing on our business, and what we see is pretty significant tailwinds to our business due to competitive capacity. And we don't see that changing. We've not seen anything that's going to change that opinion. And again, every day, it seems to get better for us. I mean they just closed another 5 cities or announced closing another 5 cities today, including like Phoenix, St. Louis, and Milwaukee. So, these are all key cities for Frontier. So, we see pretty good upside, but we're not talking about a merger.

Our next question comes from Christopher Stathoulopoulos of SIG.

Barry, I wanted to ask for an update on the revenue initiatives because there's a lot going on here. I heard $715 per passenger in the third quarter. But the comment you made two questions ago, I think it was first class priced. I think you gave a price point or you quantified a certain percentage below a basic economy seat or what I took to be an entry-level product versus, I'm assuming, network peers.

I said premium economy on one of the big airlines, not basic.

That's an interesting point. Could you clarify if this applies to select markets? You mentioned it would take 2 to 3 years to mature, which is significant. I would appreciate any additional details you can provide.

I believe we will achieve 60% to 80% of the benefits within the first year. However, it will take a few years for it to fully mature. Nonetheless, this will provide incremental additions and a positive return on investment within months. Regarding pricing, if you look at our current fares, we often have a $49 fare compared to legacies that charge $69 or $79 for basic economy and can reach $400 or $500 for first class. I anticipate we could comfortably offer first class at around $200 to $250. This will be an excellent deal for anyone flying first class and represent a significant improvement. We are removing four seats from the plane that previously had the lowest fares, which will now become our highest fares. This is a substantial adjustment to our revenue per available seat mile. Overall, it will greatly enhance our performance, but pricing will vary dynamically by route, day, and situation.

Okay. Great. And the comment on the down to competitive capacity for the fourth quarter, I'm guessing that's your system or select routes. And then if there are any markets where you're seeing, I guess, better or worse in so far as additions or deletions from competitors?

Yes. There are several routes where Jimmy spoke about this in his prepared remarks. Jimmy, would you like to remind them of the numbers?

Yes, we've seen a significant change in 2 areas. One is where they've exited markets. And so we've seen them exit about 36 routes that overlap with us. And we've also seen a significant reduction in frequencies, about 30% across 41 other markets. So, it's a considerable change in overlap capacity between us and Spirit. And it's across the system in a lot of cases, but the predominance particularly in the West.

I am showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to the Chief Executive Officer, Barry Biffle, for closing remarks.

I want to thank everybody for calling in. We're really excited about the future, and things have really kind of turned around from a foundational perspective. So I look forward to updating you again and talking to you again in the new year.

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.