Visteon Corp Q3 FY2025 Earnings Call

Good morning. I'm Kris Doyle, Vice President of Investor Relations and FP&A. Welcome to our earnings call for the third quarter of 2025. Before we begin this morning's call, I'd like to remind you that today's presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and are subject to various risks, uncertainties, and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed. Please refer to the page titled Forward-Looking Information in our earnings material for more detail. Presentation materials for today's call were posted this morning on the Investors section of Visteon's website. You can download them at investors.visteon.com if you haven't already done so. Joining us today are Sachin Lawande, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jerome Rouquet, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We scheduled the call for 1 hour, and we'll open the lines for questions after Sachin's and Jerome's prepared remarks. Thank you again for joining us. Now I'll turn the call over to Sachin.

Thank you, Kris, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our third quarter 2025 earnings call. Visteon delivered another quarter of strong operating and financial performance, demonstrating the strength of our business while continuing to execute on our long-term strategy. Sales for the third quarter were $917 million, coming in slightly below our expectations, primarily due to the impact of the unplanned production shutdown at JLR. Excluding this impact, sales were broadly in line with our forecast. We had good visibility into customer production schedules going into the quarter, and while there were some minor puts and takes across programs, they largely offset each other. Year-over-year, we continue to see strong momentum in our cockpit electronics business with solid growth in Europe and in the Americas. This was offset by lower sales in China and for BMS in the U.S. due to the anticipated headwinds from the challenging macro environment for global OEMs in China and for electric vehicles in the U.S. Adjusted EBITDA was $119 million, representing a margin of 13%, and adjusted free cash flow for the quarter was $110 million. We are maintaining our full-year guidance, which Jerome will walk you through in more detail shortly. On the sales side, we're trending below the midpoint of guidance as a result of several temporary industry headwinds. Importantly, despite these headwinds, our adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow are forecasted to remain strong, supported by continued operating discipline, commercial execution, and the impact of our cost reduction initiatives. From an operational viewpoint, the team delivered very well. We launched 28 new products, improved our profit margin through productivity measures and secured $1.8 billion in new business during the quarter. We continued to build momentum with our product portfolio, winning multiple large display programs and adding another high-performance SmartCore customer in China, strengthening our position in the emerging AI-based cockpit systems trend in the industry. We also resumed capital returns to shareholders with the payment of our newly initiated quarterly dividend with more capital returns planned in the fourth quarter. Turning to Page 3. Our Q3 sales came largely in line with our expectations, excluding the temporary production shutdown at 1 customer in Europe. In North America, cockpit electronics continued to perform well and came in ahead of expectations. The impact of tariffs on customer demand remained minimal, and we benefited from the ramp-up of several recently launched programs with OEMs, including Ford. BMS sales were down significantly year-over-year with GM and Stellantis, reflecting the very different environment for EVs in 2025 compared to 2024. Our retail EV demand surged ahead of the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit. Production levels remained steady as OEMs worked through the elevated dealer inventory. Sequentially, BMS sales came in modestly higher. Overall, in the Americas, strength in cockpit electronics helped partially offset the year-over-year decline in BMS sales. In Europe, our sales were flat year-over-year. We saw solid gains in cockpit electronics and ICE hybrid as well as battery electric vehicles across multiple customers, including Mercedes EQ and Renault R4 and R5 EVs, the Puma Transit and transporter vehicles from Ford and the Peugeot 208 and 2008 vehicle models that offer a choice of powertrains. Our sales in Europe also benefited from our recent engineering services acquisition; partially offsetting some of this strength was the production downtime at JLR, where operations were halted for the entire month of September, due to a cyberattack impacting our Q3 sales by approximately $12 million. In the rest of Asia, excluding China, we continue to make progress on our strategic initiatives to diversify our customer base and expand into the 2-wheeler market. In Q3, sales benefited from ongoing traction in the 2-wheeler market and from the recent launch of our digital cluster program across multiple car lines with Mitsubishi. Offsetting these were declines in vehicle production at a few of our customers in the region. In China, third quarter sales declined year-over-year as expected, primarily driven by negative vehicle mix with Geely and the ongoing market share loss of global OEMs, partially offset by new product launches. On a sequential basis, however, sales remained stable, supported by key programs, including the new Buick GL8 with GM, Toyota Corolla, and the cockpit domain controller with Geely. We believe this performance represents a baseline level for our China business, from which we expect to return to growth in the coming years. Turning to Page 4. We launched 28 new products across 10 different OEMs in the third quarter, underscoring the market fit of our product and technology portfolio as well as our program execution capabilities. These launches spanned a broad range of vehicle segments and geographies and were featured on several flagship vehicle models, reinforcing the trust our customers place in our ability to execute and deliver these complex systems. Some key highlights include an audio infotainment system on the Ford Super Duty and a multi-display system for the Chevy Corvette at GM. Large displays are becoming key requirements in all regions. We launched a new dual display system on the Renault Boreal, which is a C-segment SUV based on the Dacia Bixter for markets outside of Europe with first launch in Brazil. In 2-wheelers, we launched digital clusters across 3 models with TVS in India, our first with this OEM. TVS is the third largest 2-wheeler manufacturer in India, with annual sales of about 3 million vehicles. This is also the first introduction of an all-digital cluster by this OEM, highlighting the growing trend of digitalization in the 2-wheeler market. In Commercial Vehicles, we introduced a SmartCore-based cockpit system for off-road construction equipment with Volvo that enables advanced features, such as dig assist for excavators and load assist for wheel loaders that delivers high excavation accuracy in a fraction of the time compared to conventional methods. These systems use multiple sensors and highly accurate GPS technology to run sophisticated software algorithms on our proven SmartCore platform. Lastly, we launched an upgraded SmartCore cockpit domain controller on the refresh Zeekr 001 luxury electric vehicle. The 001 has been a successful vehicle for Geely with over 300,000 sold since its introduction in 2021, and the latest version will be offered in 6 countries in Europe besides China. New product launches with customers such as Geely and Cherry remain central to our strategy for returning to growth in China. Our Q3 launches illustrate the fit of our products for not only the passenger car market, but also for 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets. Year-to-date, we have now introduced 65 new products, reflecting our continued focus on innovation and disciplined program execution. Turning to Page 5. Q3 was another strong quarter for new business wins, and we now expect to close the year at greater than $7 billion, higher than our initial target of $6 billion. Year-to-date, we have secured $5.7 billion in new business awards, which is up from $4.9 billion in the same period last year, with wins across 21 unique OEM customers. The product mix is led by displays, which represents more than half of our total awards so far this year, as carmakers seek to refresh and differentiate the cockpit experience, even on existing vehicle platforms. Importantly, we also secured $2.3 billion in new SmartCore digital cluster and infotainment programs despite a relatively slow quoting environment, as carmakers adjust to rapidly changing market dynamics. The strong performance reflects the strength of our product and technology portfolio, which continues to lead the auto industry and help us in expanding into two-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets. On the right side of the slide, you can see a few examples of notable wins this quarter. We won a panoramic display with a European OEM covering both hybrid and battery-electric models launching in mid-2028. This is our first win with this brand and the display will initially debut in the European market with later expansion into other major markets. Another significant win is for a large dual driver and passenger display for a premium luxury brand. Our product integrates to OLED panels under a single cover glass, featuring switchable privacy for their display. Our competitiveness on technology and cost supported by our in-house design and manufacturing capabilities were critical factors in securing this business. In Asia, we continue to expand with the world's largest OEM, winning a digital cluster program for an affordable performance model, another step in deepening our relationship with this key customer. And in China, we secured a SmartCore high-performance computer program with Cherry, which will enable AI capabilities to enhance the cockpit user experience. Cherry is one of China's leading domestic OEMs and also a leading exporter of vehicles. The product will initially launch in their plug-in hybrid SUV models, followed by the next generation of battery electric vehicles. This represents our second HPC win in China, the first was with Zeekr. And when these 2 programs launch in the second half of 2026, they will be the most advanced systems globally, setting a new benchmark for next-generation cockpit products. Turning to Page 6. Just a few years ago, electric vehicles and China were seen as the 2 most significant growth drivers for the industry. However, that has changed quite rapidly over the past couple of years, and the industry reality is very different today. EV adoption outside of China has progressed more gradually than many had anticipated, and recent policy changes in the U.S. present additional challenges. In China, the large number of car brands operating in that market has triggered a fierce price war that has raised on for the past couple of years and resulted in notable changes in OEM market share. On the technology front, artificial intelligence has overtaken SDV as the most exciting technology trend with Chinese OEMs leading the industry in early adoption of this technology. In response, we have taken deliberate steps to broaden our strategic initiatives to address the air pockets in our growth trajectory created by these industry dynamics. I would like to take a few minutes to share how we are thinking about these evolving industry trends and the progress we are making on our broader growth initiatives. Carmakers outside of China are launching new vehicle models that offer a choice of powertrain, ICE, hybrid, and battery electric, and with larger displays and advanced cockpit electronics. This is especially the case in Europe as carmakers prepared to compete against Chinese imports. We are seeing strong interest in our large displays and latest SmartCore technology for these new vehicles. In the third quarter alone, we launched 5 new cockpit electronics programs for OEMs in Europe and China and have 5 additional SmartCore systems under active development with OEMs in Europe and Asia, with launches starting in Q4 of 2025. We are also making progress with Cherry, where we will launch our first display program in early 2026 for the European market. This initial program serves as a strategic entry point, enabling us to expand our relationship with Cherry during the third quarter in the China market with another new business win. Artificial intelligence has the potential to significantly enhance the user experience delivered by cockpit systems. AI-enabled cockpit is an emerging technology trend, and Visteon has positioned itself well with the introduction of the high-performance version of SmartCore and cognitoAI framework, the first of its kind in the industry. In Q3, we secured our second high-performance compute win, this time with Cherry, joining Zeekr as key initial customers for this exciting new technology. We have discussed previously our initiatives to broaden our opportunities by focusing on underrepresented car OEMs in Asia, while expanding into adjacent transportation markets of 2-wheelers and commercial vehicle OEMs. We are also expanding our product portfolio with new in-house developed products, such as the App Store and cameras for ADAS applications. In the third quarter, we made solid progress. We launched an app store with Maruti Suzuki in India, our first launch of this product, which now supports over 100 apps that are available for download. We are also working with 2 additional OEMs for the launch of this app store in their vehicles in 2026. We also launched multiple products in the 2-wheeler and commercial vehicle markets, which have already been highlighted earlier in the call. Year-to-date, roughly 25% of our new business wins are tied to our strategic growth initiatives, a key reason we now expect to exceed our original new business win target by at least $1 billion. Overall, we remain confident in the long-term prospects for the business. In addition to our top-line opportunities, we continue to expand margins, generate strong cash flow, and deliver best-in-class returns on invested capital. With that, I'll hand it over to Jerome, who will walk you through the financials in more detail.

Thank you, Sachin, and good morning, everyone. Consistent with recent quarters, we again delivered a strong operational and cost performance as well as robust cash generation despite sales being slightly lower than originally expected. For the quarter, sales were $917 million, a 6% decline from the prior year. We continue to see strong growth in cockpit electronics across the Americas and Europe, along with higher engineering services revenue on a year-over-year basis. As expected, this was more than offset by lower battery management system sales in the Americas and reduced sales in China. However, what we did not expect was the negative impact of JLR unplanned shutdown for the entire month of September, which represented a little over a point of sales. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $119 million underscoring our continued focus on operational execution and disciplined cost control. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 13%, benefited from our ongoing efforts in product costing and productivity. We did have net positive nonrecurring items this quarter, which contributed approximately 0.5 point to the margin. Adjusted free cash flow was $110 million, driven by a robust EBITDA performance as well as favorable timing of cash flows. During the quarter, we paid our first quarterly dividend, marking an important step in continuing to return capital to shareholders and reinforcing our commitment to a balanced capital allocation strategy. We closed the quarter with $459 million in net cash, giving us the flexibility to continue investing in the business, pursuing technology accretive acquisitions while delivering shareholder returns. Turning to Page 9. Sales for the quarter were $917 million, down $63 million year-over-year. Customer production volumes remained essentially flat, while growth versus market was negative 5% for the period. Growth over market came in below our expectations this quarter, driven by a combination of factors. First, production mix was a headwind. Several of our key customers, including Geely and others saw increases in overall production volumes, but not on a specific vehicle lines where we have content. This diluted our growth over market performance. Second, as we have discussed, JLR was another headwind. Sales with JLR were on track to outpace the customer's production before the shutdown, which impacted the contribution to growth over market. Customer recoveries, primarily tied to prior semiconductor cost increases, reduced sales by approximately 2% year-over-year, as those input costs continue to decline. Normal annual price reductions to customers were around 1%, consistent with our historical average. FX provided a modest benefit in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $119 million, flat compared to the prior year. However, adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 90 basis points, reflecting strong performance in product costing and productivity, the benefit of one-time items as well as contribution from M&A. These gains were offset by the flow-through impact of lower sales. Net engineering as a percentage of sales was 6.3% for the quarter and includes the recent engineering services acquisitions we have made over the last 12 months. Excluding the acquisitions, our net engineering expense remains in the 5% range, slightly lower than our original expectations for the quarter. We continue to leverage our platform approach and best cost footprint while advancing multiple initiatives to improve engineering productivity. At the same time, we are investing in strategic engineering capabilities, including AI applications to support our upcoming high-performance compute launches in China and the development of cognitoAI. Adjusted SG&A was 4.9% of sales, reflecting a healthy balance between ongoing cost controls and targeted investment in key teams and technologies to support future growth. Our normalized margins remained in the mid-12% range, and Q3 provides another data point illustrating the run rate of the business. The sustainable margin performance continues to be driven by the cost initiatives we have undertaken, including product costing, engineering productivity, platform-based product development, and AI-driven process improvements while continuing to invest in the business. Turning to Page 10. Visteon generated $215 million of adjusted free cash flow through the first 3 quarters of the year. We continue to benefit from a robust level of adjusted EBITDA, converting EBITDA to cash at a 56% rate, still above our 40% target when excluding the working capital inflow. Trade working capital was a net inflow, reflecting lower sales and strong collections, partially offset by higher inventory levels associated with the unplanned shutdown at JLR. Cash taxes were higher compared to last year, driven by continued improvement in profitability across most jurisdictions as well as the timing of cash payments. Net interest remained a positive contributor as interest income earned on our cash exceeded the interest expense paid on our debt. We also had an outflow this year related to our 2024 annual incentive program, which was paid in 2025 and at higher levels than the prior year, reflecting the strong financial and operational performance in 2024. In addition to this payout in the first quarter, other changes this year, including U.S. pension contributions and the timing of various other cash flows. Capital expenditures were $88 million, representing 3.1% of sales and were slightly below our full year expected run rate. In the first 3 quarters of the year, in addition to ongoing investments supporting customer programs, we continue to invest in several vertical integration initiatives, as I have mentioned on previous calls. These initiatives allow us not only to improve our product costs, but as well to derisk our supply chain while controlling more of the technology that goes into our products. In the quarter, we paid our first quarterly dividend approximately $8 million. We ended the quarter with $765 million of cash and a net cash balance of $459 million. In the fourth quarter, we plan to increase our capital allocation to shareholders. In addition to our recurring quarterly dividend of $0.275 per share, we will return additional capital through share repurchases. We currently have approximately $125 million of authorization remaining under our existing program and anticipate retiring between $20 million and $30 million of shares during the quarter. We may go beyond that range on an opportunistic basis, depending on market conditions. This puts us on track to complete the program by the end of next year, consistent with the plan we laid out during our 2023 Investor Day. Turning to Page 11. Our current outlook remains within the range of our previous guidance. On sales, we are now tracking below the midpoint of the range, closer to approximately $3.75 billion, reflecting the latest customer schedules. First, we are incorporating a reduction in battery management system sales following the elimination of the $7,500 EV tax credits in the U.S. We expect this headwind to persist into 2026. Second, we have incorporated some continued level of production disruptions at JLR throughout mid-November. Under normal conditions, JLR contributes approximately $10 million to $13 million in monthly sales. Finally, we are also adjusting our outlook for our largest customer, Ford, due to some scheduled downtime resulting from their aluminum supplier plant fire. We believe the JLR shutdown and scheduled downtime at Ford with an estimated impact of $30 million to $40 million are temporary in nature and do not reflect the underlying run rate of our business. Focusing on Q4, we anticipate a modest sequential increase compared to Q3. We expect to benefit from new program launches and higher customer production volumes, which we believe should more than offset the incremental headwinds from the aluminum supply disruption and lower BMS sales. The impact from JLR is expected to be similar in both quarters. For growth of the market, we anticipate improvement in the fourth quarter compared to Q3 despite some of the near-term headwinds. For the full year, we currently estimate growth of the market will land in the low single digits. This is below our previous expectations, largely due to the factors I've outlined already, namely production mix where customer volumes have increased, but not necessarily on the platforms we support, a decline in battery management system volumes in Q4 and temporary headwinds from JLR and the disruption caused by the aluminum supplier fire. Our adjusted EBITDA is trending towards the high end of the guidance range. We anticipate Q4 EBITDA margins to be in the mid-12% range, consistent with the run rate we have delivered for the last 3 quarters. Adjusted free cash flow is also trending towards the high end of our range, if not slightly higher. CapEx is trending closer to $140 million, slightly lower than originally anticipated, despite our ongoing investment in the business in sourcing activities and the expected purchase of land for a second manufacturing location in India to support our growing business there. We continue to actively pursue vertical integration opportunities, and our CapEx includes investments this year in several areas, including magnesium injections, display manufacturing, and camera assembly. Our outlook illustrates the operational and commercial discipline we continue to deliver on with adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow, well above our expectations coming into the year despite more modest sales performance than expected. The work we've been doing to win new businesses, expand margins, vertically integrate, and generate more cash provides a great foundation for the long term. Finally, I would like to flag a developing risk for both Visteon and the entire automotive industry related to recent trade restrictions imposed by the Chinese government on Nexperia, a supplier of transistors, diodes, and other discrete semiconductors to Visteon and the entire automotive industry. The trade restrictions prohibit Nexperia from exporting components outside of China and could disrupt production similar to what we experienced in 2021. We understand that Nexperia is currently working to obtain an export license, which has historically taken approximately 45 business days, although details remain uncertain. We hold approximately 30 days of inventory for most affected parts and are actively working to mitigate direct risk to Visteon by qualifying and procuring compatible parts through brokers and distributors. The indirect exposure is hard to estimate as Nexperia components are widely used across the industry and could materially impact customer production schedules. At this stage, it is uncertain whether this risk will materialize or what the impact would be, and accordingly, this risk is not factored into our guidance for all 3 metrics. Turning to Page 12. Visteon remains a compelling long-term investment opportunity. We expect to benefit from higher demand for more digital content in the cockpit regardless of powertrain. Visteon is well positioned for long-term top-line growth, margin expansion, and free cash flow generation, while our strong balance sheet provides us with significant flexibility to pursue our capital allocation priorities. Thank you for your time today. I would like now to open the call for your questions.

Your first question comes from the line of Luke Junk of Baird.

Sachin, maybe to start with the forward-looking question. You mentioned in the script your expectation of returning to a cadence of growth in China. I'm just wondering, how should we think about that into '26, especially through the year, and especially thinking about the materiality of the CDC wins into the back half of 2026?

Yes, Luke. So if you think about our business in China, it has, as we discussed, stabilized in Q3, and we expect that to continue into Q4, and there are launches in China starting Q4, but also more into 2026. I think we have about 20 new model launches happening next year, but it is predominantly back half loaded, especially with those 2 high-performance compute SmartCore launches, which have also very high value. We expect to be able to outperform customer vehicle production in China next year. Now today, as we stand, I think S&P Global is forecasting customer production volume in China to be lower next year, but I believe it's still too early to call that. I think there will be some changes. I'll know more in China next month, and we'll have much better visibility into it. But overall, our expectations are that we would be returning to a growth over market performance back in China next year.

Got it. And then for my follow-up, just circling back to Nexperia, Jerome, I appreciate your comments on the direct impacts. What about the indirect and just latest intel on what your customers are telling you what their production-related risk might be?

Yes, Luke, I'll take this opportunity to provide some additional context. Jerome already touched on it in his prepared remarks, but I believe this is a question on many minds. Nexperia is the parts division of NXP, which was formerly part of NXP and had a significant presence in the automotive sector before being sold to Chinese investors in 2017. It was later acquired by Fintech Semi in 2019. Currently, approximately 60% of their business is in automotive, producing essential but relatively minor components such as transistors, MOSFETs, and diodes. Nearly all automotive electronic components utilize one or multiple of these parts. However, due to an issue between Nexperia's Chinese owners and the Dutch government, actions taken by the Dutch government on September 30 have led to escalating diplomatic tension. Consequently, starting October 4, supply from Nexperia China has effectively ceased, affecting all the automotive components I mentioned earlier. As Jerome indicated, they have applied for an export permit, but this likely needs government-level intervention and resolution, which may occur soon. It is also publicly known that the Commerce ministers from both sides are discussing potential solutions, so we remain optimistic for a swift resolution. Regarding the impact, most suppliers typically maintain 2 to 3 weeks of parts inventory and around another week in transit and at the OEMs. We are currently into the third week, and the urgency of this situation increases with each day. Visteon has learned from the previous semiconductor crisis and maintains a higher level of parts inventory, giving us a slight advantage over our industry peers. We are actively searching for alternative parts and redesigning some products to accommodate parts that aren't strictly pin-to-pin compatible. However, these adaptations require time, and if supply doesn’t resume in the next week or ten days, we may need to act quickly. We are hopeful for a resolution within that time frame to avoid impacting our customers' production. Regardless, I believe Visteon is likely not to be the first to affect our customers due to our inventory levels and ability to find alternatives. Hopefully, this provides more clarity, and we will continue to monitor this evolving situation closely.

Your next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli with TD Cowen.

Just curious if you can comment on just how some of the shifts in revenue and some maybe slipping into 2026, others maybe being more kind of onetime in nature is maybe influencing your thinking on the 5% CAGR target through 2027 as well, how we should think about BMS directionally into 2026.

Yes. Let me take this first, and then I'll invite Jerome to add anything that I might have missed. But when we think about 2026, although it is too early to really be specific, let me share some of the puts and takes as we see right now. First of all, S&P Global is forecasting vehicle production at our customers to be down next year, 3% to 4%, mainly in North America and China, but I do expect that to be revised as many of our customers that have been impacted by all of these things that we have discussed on the call will likely try to recover that cost production next year. So we will have to, again, wait and watch how this develops, but my expectation is that it won't be as negative as S&P Global has the outlook today. Now when it comes to the 2 main headwinds we have faced this year, namely China and BMS, they will play out differently as we go forward. So first, China, as we discussed also in our prepared remarks, will start to come back to growth, based on the launches that we discussed, including the high-performance compute launches. And this growth will continue going forward into 2027, as we have additional launches coming in on top of the ones that I just mentioned. Now with BMS, we will have to still wait and see how this develops, but at least in 2026, our expectation is that given the headwinds that EVs faced, especially in the U.S., I expect our BMS revenue to continue to see some decline next year and then maybe stabilize from that point. We will have, at that point, also better comps as we go into 2027, and we expect that to be on the path for modest growth, and later in 2028, we also have our first power electronics products that launch. So our strategy for BMS and our electrification in general is to track with the market. We expect the market to increasingly outside of China to take a multi-energy approach when it comes to vehicle powertrains. And yes, the growth expectations have been calibrated significantly lower compared to where we were a couple of years ago. We still do believe that after this lapping that the locker hopefully by 2027, we expect electrification to also continue on a modest growth trajectory. Now as we think about '26 and '27, the other big factor, the 1 that we have discussed previously is our launches with Toyota, and we have several launches more than a dozen launches that are split between 2026 and 2027. And therefore, the full-year impact will be most felt in 2027. And that's where we see that step growth occur in our revenue as we go forward. We'll be talking a lot more about this on our fourth-quarter call as we usually do, but I thought I would share with you some of the things that we see as we stand today.

No, that's super helpful. As a quick follow-up, congrats on the new business booking momentum this year. Is $7 billion sustainable, Sachin, next year, and beyond? Or maybe there's some one-time elements in there this year?

No, let me first explain the reason behind it for a better appreciation of what we are seeing and why we believe that higher levels will be sustained. The main driver of our successes, even last year and certainly this year, has been our achievements with displays. The investments we've made since 2018 have continued to strengthen our position in more complex, larger displays for automotive. This has helped us secure new business, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, at a time when coating activity has been lower than normal, especially for electronics. The OEMs in these regions have been adjusting their new vehicle launch plans due to a sudden shift in their outlook on EVs. In Asia, however, the OEMs do not face this situation, allowing us to see opportunities for our full suite of products, including cockpit electronics. We are winning with SmartCore and SmartCore HPC currently in Asia. I anticipate that OEMs in Europe and the U.S. will soon resume sourcing activity for electronics, as failing to do so would leave them non-competitive, particularly against Chinese counterparts. This is reflected in our wins this year. In Q3 year-to-date, approximately 40% of the wins came from Europe, 25% from the Americas, and 33% from Asia. Additionally, our initiatives with commercial vehicles and two-wheelers have also contributed to a significant increase in new business wins. In fact, this year, we have more than doubled our new business wins in absolute dollar value compared to last year, which previously represented a small portion of our overall business. All of these factors are sustainable, and as we have shown this year in a challenging environment, we seem to be capturing more than our fair share of opportunities, which highlights the strength of our product portfolio and cost competitiveness.

Your next question comes from the line of Dan Levy, Barclays.

Jerome, I wanted to start by asking about the margins. Could you discuss the one-time factors? When we consider the entire year, what would be the appropriate starting point for our projections into 2026? Additionally, I think it's important to note that several EV programs have faced delays and cancellations, and there will likely be some recovery payments from OEMs to suppliers. What do you anticipate the potential recoveries might be?

Thank you for your question. The margins have been very strong throughout the year, consistently exceeding our guidance from a margin percentage perspective. In Q3, we achieved 13%, and even when normalized, we were at 12.5%, which is slightly above our indications from previous quarters. The strength of the margin is largely due to the initiatives we've been implementing over the last few quarters, particularly around product costing. We have focused on ensuring our products remain competitive in the market cost-wise, notably through vertical integration. Additionally, we have improved productivity in both manufacturing and engineering, especially with the recent advancements in AI, which have enhanced our efficiency on the engineering side. Looking ahead, we expect to finish the year with margins slightly above the midpoint of our guidance, aiming for approximately $0.5 billion in EBITDA for the full year, which includes about $30 million from one-time adjustments. We recorded around 25 in the first half of the year and just 5 in this quarter, reflecting recoveries related to lower program volumes and excess inventories due to reduced volume. This is the primary reason for these adjustments, and I suggest we account for this as we prepare for 2026. There will always be some level of recoveries of this nature as we enter any new year.

Yes. Maybe I can help also provide more context because our exposure to EVs is very different than many of our peers because we are essentially, for now at least, really focused on electronics. And the CapEx and other requirements for EMS is significantly different as compared to, say, a traction inverter or something that is very specific to NAV. So in the grand scheme of things, our investments and, therefore, recovery are much smaller as compared to what you might hear from some of our other competitors or peers.

Great. As a follow-up, I wanted to ask about your Toyota exposure. And I know this is a question that's come up in past calls, and I think the number is something like 10% of revenue potentially in '27 or '28, whatever that may be?

Yes, '28.

Yes. Maybe you could just talk about the launch cadence ahead and the line of sight and the confidence that this will ultimately start to become a dominant piece of the revenue that could offset maybe any continued mix headwinds, which may linger?

Yes. No, I'll take that one. So you're absolutely right. We've been obviously very successful with Toyota in terms of business wins recently. And we have a pretty gradual set of launches as we go into '27, and it's going to increase, obviously, numbers as well in dollar terms. So for '25, we'll launch 2 programs overall; in '26, 5; and then in '27, 7 programs. So that shows you a little bit the acceleration that we have as we go into '27. And that's the reason why we've been talking about 10% of our sales going into '28. So it's a fairly significant ramp based on what we've won recently. I think the good news as well with Toyota is that we keep on getting very good engagement with this customer, and there are still opportunities. So obviously, that would go beyond '28 and further, but it's been a very successful story for us.

I think we need to maybe just give you more context on the opportunities even beyond this. And having said that, with these launches, 2028, we expect, as we said earlier, about 10% of revenue, but these are essentially 2 product lines that we currently are engaged on, right? It's the cluster and displays. And we have opportunities even within those 2 product lines to get on other vehicles. This is still less than 50% of their vehicle platforms and models. So there's still plenty of opportunity for growth. On top of that, we are engaged with them on discussions regarding electronics, right? And given my prior comments about how we see the industry rapidly evolving to use more and more advanced software-driven features, and AI becoming a very dominant theme or trend, I think we are very well positioned to support this customer, this OEM in their ambitions with respect to addressing some of the gaps that they have in their portfolio. So for us, this represents much more than just the immediate 2028 sort of horizon opportunity that we have discussed. So we will continue to explore more opportunities as we go forward.

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs.

Thanks for the comments on the various product opportunities and your thoughts on the market environment. I'm hoping you can help better contextualize what that all means for consolidated growth in the coming years as you consider share gains with certain Asia ex-OEMs, Axia ex-China OEMs. You were working through the backlog, given the booking strength you're seeing, executing on some of these AI opportunities, but then also some of these headwinds like in BMS and customer mix. And as you put that all together, how is the company tracking relative to the $4.15 billion revenue target you previously discussed for 2027?

Yes. Again, I think we will not necessarily specifically comment on '27. We will do that beginning of next year, primarily because we need to get a better handle on the underlying volume assumptions, as we discussed there's a lot of moving parts there. But having said that, we are making really good progress with all the initiatives that I have mentioned on this call and previously as well, starting with Toyota. As Jerome just mentioned, we have these launches. We really have to execute these launches well, which I have no reason to doubt that we would be doing anything otherwise. But the other one that I would like to highlight that also really contributes to our growth in 2027 is the launch in '26 with Honda. This is the 2-wheeler opportunity that we have previously mentioned fairly significantly. And then on commercial vehicles, we have there are opportunities that are with TRATON, which is the commercial vehicle group that constitutes MAN, Scania, and the sub in the U.S. as well as Volvo trucks, which are launching in 2027. So we have, in '27, the situation where China starts to grow. We have this BMS headwind kind of just lapped at that point. So the comparison should be good. And then all these new launches that are kicking in. So we would expect to be in a good position, but I do want to just caveat investing this volume expectations, we need to get a much better handle on, and that's what we will be focused on between now and end of the year.

Helpful context. And my second question was on BMS, and thanks for all the commentary and discussion you already provided there. I did want to understand profit implications for Visteon in that product area over the next couple of years. And given what you articulated around volumes in relation to what customers are now planning for their EVs, how is Visteon operating that business? And is this something that can remain profitable even if BMS sales are at low levels in '26, and maybe in '27 as well?

Yes, I'll take that, Mark. BMS still represents about 5% of our sales. So it's still a significant contribution in terms of product line. Margins are similar to other product lines. So there's not a major difference. Obviously, the more volume we have, the better. But it's not going to be, let's say, a mix impact that we'll see as we go forward.

Your next question comes from the line of Joe Spak of UBS.

I just wanted to quickly follow up on the last point, as it was headed down a similar path. So that indicates that BMS accounts for around 5%, or approximately $200 million. In order for investors to be accurately informed, do we anticipate that this represents a couple of point headwind and is where things might bottom out for 2026? I understand the situation is quite fluid, but what are your preliminary thoughts on this? Additionally, regarding another topic that arose, which is receiving payments for volume, should we expect to receive payments for these BMS shortfalls as well, or have those payments already begun?

Yes. So I think maybe answer the second question first. So for the BMS shortfall, we do anticipate recoveries that would be either part of the product piece price or as a lump sum as we go forward. Some of that has been reflected in the price already, by the way. So we will continue to monitor the volume and adjust and go back as necessary. And so in terms of the volume itself, we're still looking at the latest information that's coming in from GM, and you have also seen what they have publicly stated. So we believe that it's probably somewhere between 10% to 15% or maybe even up to 20% down sequentially. So we'll have to see whether it recovers in the second half, but in the first half, we do expect to see a drop. And then it will depend on how the underlying demand really holds, right? Because we will be in an environment where for the first time, there are no incentives to drive the behavior. I mean, at the same time, we all know that OEMs will continue to offer their own, but to what extent is yet to be seen. So our expectation in what we would tend to model would be somewhere around 20% to be a little conservative.

Your last question comes from the line of Colin Langan of Wells Fargo.

Just to follow up, I want to gather insights on the commentary moving forward. You mentioned that battery management will be a challenge next year, potentially affecting about 1 point. I assume there's some good news regarding the reversal of volumes from JLR and the aluminum disruption. Can you provide any insights on how the 2-wheeler and commercial market might contribute? Also, you mentioned that China is expected to show positive growth; will this be the main factor in boosting overall growth as we compare to last year? Additionally, how significant was the impact of China on this year's growth?

Yes. So the 2 big tailwinds we face next year; one is China, obviously; the other launches, by the way, in the rest of the markets, primarily commercial vehicles and 2-wheelers. So these are kind of net new programs that we will be introducing. So in terms of the growth of our market, we expect China to be positive, and we expect the rest of the market to also be positive as a result.

And in terms of headwinds this year that will reverse into next year, largely because of JLR and nonetheless, we've assumed so far in this year, a revised outlook $30 million to $40 million of impact. So you would expect that to be a positive as we go into next year.

And how bad has the China drag been on this year's growth though?

We estimate a 5 percentage point impact. This underscores that when excluding China and BMS, our cockpit business has been quite strong, particularly in Europe and the Americas.

Got it. That's very helpful. As we look ahead to margins in 2026, you mentioned that the $30 million of recoveries is high. What should we consider as the normal level? Would half of that be typical? Additionally, aside from the increased volume, will margin expansion primarily come from that, or should we anticipate any other cost-cutting measures for next year?

Yes. In response to your first question, I would estimate that half of that is likely a typical run rate, balanced with potential negative one-time events. I think 50% is a reasonable approximation. Regarding margin drivers, we have consistently improved margins as we progress, even with slightly lower volumes compared to last year. We expect to maintain this trend. My earlier comments about achieving good margins in 2025 will still apply as we approach 2026. While volume will certainly be beneficial, our primary focus is on cost management, which involves productivity, engineering, manufacturing, and product costing. Additionally, we anticipate notable positive impacts as we move into 2026 and 2027 due to our ongoing vertical integration initiatives.

Thanks for participating in today's call. I'd like to quickly point your attention to Slide 24, in which we highlight several Investor Relations activities for the fourth quarter. If you are interested in learning more, please contact our Investor Relations team. Thank you.

This concludes Visteon's Third Quarter 2025 Results Earnings Call. You may now disconnect.