Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Vornado Realty Trust 4th Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. My name is Nick, and I will be your operator for today's call. This call is being recorded for replay purposes. All lines are in a listen-only mode. Our speakers will address your questions at the end of the presentation during the question and answer session. At that time, please press star, then one on your touchtone phone. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Steve Borenstein, Executive Vice President and Corporation Counsel. Please go ahead, sir.
Welcome to Vernada Realty Trust's fourth quarter earnings call. Yesterday afternoon, we issued our fourth quarter earnings release and filed our annual report on Form 10-K with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These documents, as well as our supplemental financial information package, are available on our website, www.bno.com, under the Investor Relations section. In these documents and during today's call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures are included in our earnings release, Form 10-K, and financial supplements. Please be aware that statements made during this call may be deemed forward-looking statements, and actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and other factors. Please refer to our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, including our annual report on Form 10-K for the year-ended December 31, 2025, for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. The call may include time-sensitive information that may be accurate only as of today's date. The company does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements. On the call today from management for our opening comments are Stephen Ross, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Michael Franco, President and Chief Financial Officer. Our senior team is also present and available for questions. I will now turn the call over to Stephen Rock.
Thank you, Stephen. Good morning, everyone. Here at Vernado, business is good and getting better. As you all know, Vernado is a premier Manhattan-centric office company, and I'm sure we can all agree that Manhattan is clearly far and away the best office and residential, too, by the way, real estate market in the country. As predicted on our recent calls, New York is now on the foothills of the best landlord's market in 20 years. We believe this landlord's market in Manhattan will continue to tighten and last for a long time. Fundamentals are truly outstanding and the best ever. The long and short of it is that tenant demand from finance, tech, and most other industries is extremely robust in the face of declining availabilities and the better building subset. Take a look at our assets. We have the Penn District, our city within a city. The roster of our other assets in the better building category where in-place rents are well under market and market rents are rising. We have an irreplaceable portfolio of very scarce, think scarce as hen's teeth, high street retail assets on Fifth Avenue and in Times Square. We have the largest and most successful and growing large format signage business. We have in-house our wholly owned, vertically integrated cleaning and security company. We have the best development program in town, highlighted by 350 Park Avenue, Penn 15, and now 623 Fifth Avenue. And most importantly, we have the best management team, leasing, development, finance, and operations in the business. In short, we are a very focused Manhattan-based office tower specialist. And while not in Manhattan, let's not forget 555 California Street, the best building in rapidly recovering San Francisco, where occupancy is 95% and rents are north of $160 per square foot in the tower. At Renato, we had an industry-leading quarter and an industry-leading year in almost every performance metric. And when I say industry-leading, I mean better than the other guys. Here's the scorecard. During 2025, Glenn and his team leased 4.6 million square feet of office space overall, consisting of 3.7 million square feet in Manhattan, 246,000 square feet in San Francisco, and 394,000 square feet in Chicago. This was our highest Manhattan leasing volume in over a decade, and our second highest year on record. Excluding the 1.1 million square foot master lease of NYU, Our average starting rents in Manhattan were $98 per square foot, with marked the markets of plus 10.4% cap and plus 7.8% cash, and with an average lease term of over 11 years. For the second year in a row, Renato was the clear leader in $100 per square foot leasing, with 46 leases totaling 2.5 million square feet, with two-thirds of our activity. Pen 1 and Pen 2 led here with a total of 23 deals, comprising more than 1 million square feet between both properties. In the fourth quarter, we executed 25 New York office deals totaling 960,000 square feet at average starting rates of 95 ballots per square foot. Mark the markets for the quarter were plus 8.1% gap and plus 7.2% cash at an average lease term of 10 years. Half this activity was for leases with over $100 per square foot starting rent. 2025 results reflected the market's growing appreciation for our transformation of the Penn District. Tenants and brokers get it. High-quality office space, the best transportation literally on top of Penn Station, the region's transportation hub, and the plethora of amenities and hangout spaces are unmatched. In 2025, at Penn II, we leased 908,000 square feet, an average starting rent of $109 per square foot, with an average term of over 17 years. This includes 231,000 square feet leased during the fourth quarter, an average starting rent of $114 per foot, with an average term of over 13 years, all well above our original underwriting. We have now leased over 1.4 million square feet at Penn II since project inception, putting us at 80% occupancy, hitting the target which we guided to. We expect to finish the lease up this year. Based on the leases we have executed and the activity in the remaining space, we have increased our projected incremental cash yield from 10.2% to 11.6%, as you will see on page 22 of our supplement. At Penn 1, we lease 420,000 square feet during the year at average starting rents of $97 per foot, also well above our original underwriting. Since the start of physical redevelopment at Penn 1, we have leased over 1.7 million square feet at average starting rents of $94 per foot. At Penn 2, we have just 348,000 square feet of vacancy left to lease. At PEN 1, we have 177,000 square feet of vacancy left to lease, plus half a million square feet of first-generation leases still to roll over. The good news is that this will all generate income very shortly. At PEN 11, we finalized two important leases during the fourth quarter as our major tenant there expanded by another 95,000 square feet, bringing their total footprint to 550,000 square feet, And AMC Networks renewed for $178,000. In 2025, our office occupancy rose from 88.8% to 91.2%. Let's pause here for a minute and dig in. There has been some recent chatter about physical occupancy, call it least occupancy, versus economic occupancy, call it gap occupancy. Most look at the difference on a square foot basis. I prefer to look at it on a dollars and cents basis. The former, leased occupancy, is based on signed leases, including those not yet recognized by GAP. The latter, GAP occupancy, represents leases that are recognized as paying GAP rents. As for NATO, the difference is over $200 million, which is revenue signed and committed that will be GAP recognized over the next several years. That number represents gross rents, but since the buildings are already paying full taxes and almost full operating expenses, that gross revenue number is very close to net. This income is pretty much of a short thing. A word of caution to those who are modeling. There are lots of in and outs that go into our financials, and I suggest that you not use more than a 40-cent uptick in the 20-27 year. Our New York office leasing pipeline remains robust with nearly a million square feet of leases in negotiation at various stages of proposal. Michael and Glenn will talk about this in a minute. Recognizing the shortage of large blocks in the better buildings, we can make available at our bringing-to-market prime space of up to 380,000 square feet at Penn 1, up to 350,000 square feet at Penn 2, and up to 400,000 square feet at 1290 Avenue of the Americas. We are making available to the marketplace what our clients need and want. demand for our retail assets is robust and accelerated now turning to our development program construction will commence in april two months from now on our 1.85 million square foot 350 park avenue new build with citadel as our anchor tenant and ken griffin as our 60 percent partner our pen 15 site we have been busy responding to anchor tenant requests for proposals for substantial blocks of space. We recently acquired two very high potential development assets in unique locations, which I call in the middle of everything. 623 Fifth Avenue is a 383,000 square foot asset that was originally built to the highest standards by Swiss Bank Corporation as the U.S. headquarters. Our asset sits on the top of Saks Fifth Avenue flagship and starts at floor 11 up to floor 36. We acquired the property in September for $218 million, or $569 per foot. Here's why I think this is the best deal ever. The location is the middle of everything, with unique light, air, and city views. You can reach out and touch Rockefeller Center, St. Patrick's Cathedral, J.P. Morgan Chase's new headquarters, and even our 350 Park Avenue. Just for the fun of it, take a look at this location on Google Maps. The building is substantially vacant, which is a huge advantage to us as a redeveloper. Built in 1990, the building is modern. Our business plan is to create here the 220 Central Park Southland Boutique office, i.e. the best of the... We acquired this asset for $569 a foot. The finished product all in soup to nuts, including tenant concessions, is budgeted at $1,175 per foot. We will be creating here a new soup to nuts building, every bit equal to a ground up new build, for half the price in a premium platinum location. We will deliver to tenants by the end of 2027 half the time of a new bill. Recognizing that Saks Fifth Avenue now in bankruptcy has an uncertain future, I believe that any outcome to the Saks Fifth Avenue bankruptcy will be good for us. And the punchline is at a 10% return on cost with, say, a 5% exit or measure of value, we will achieve a double or with leverage a four-bagger or an 11-cent incremental increase to earnings. In January, we closed for $141 million on the acquisition of 3S54th Street, a development site that is between 5th Avenue and Madison Avenue on 54th Street, adjacent to the St. Regis Hotel and our prime upper 5th Avenue retail properties. We previously acquired the $85 million mortgage on this property, which accreted to $107 million, and that was credited towards the purchase price. The development site currently is owned to 232,500 square feet as of right, and the location is excellent for hotel, office, and residential uses. We are considering several options for the site and have already received interesting income. On 34th Street and 8th Avenue, on 34th Street and 8th Avenue, we will develop a 475-unit rental residential building and expect to break ground in the fall of this year. My use of the word junkie in last quarter's earnings got a lot of attention. I don't know why. In any event, we will replace the junkie retail on both sides of 7th Avenue along 34th Street, the gateway to our pen district with more modern, appealing, and exciting retail offerings. This will be another step forward and enhance what we have already accomplished at Penn. Our 50%-owned Sunset Pier 94 with partners HPT and Blackstone, Manhattan's first purpose-built film studio facility, has just opened, and all six sound stages were immediately released by Paramount and Netflix.
These are short-term releases, but a great start.
A large glass pavilion on the rooftop of Penn II with indoor and outdoor food and drink, meeting and hanging space has been so well received that we did it again on the 17th floor setback at 1290 Avenue of the Americas. This pavilion has just opened, and together with a 10-stall five-iron golf operation and new restaurants to come, makes 1290 the single best building on 6th Avenue. And that's, in my opinion, and that's a mouthful. We invite all of you to come take a look. Just call Glenn. Our tenants love these spaces, and they represent our continuing leadership and innovation in the hospitality side of our business, all to the delights of our tenants. Credit to Glenn and Barry for design and execution here. Not so long ago, $100 rents were rare. Now they are ubiquitous in the better buildings, with some rents reaching $200 and even an occasional $300. Why? It might be, as I said, that there is a profound shortage of, quote, better, close-quote space. Or it might be that the cost of a new build has doubled. It now costs, say, $2,500 per foot to build a new tower in Manhattan. You can all do the math. Even at these higher ends, it's touch and go to make a new tower pencil. And by the way, these new builds are multibillion-dollar monsters, which are very difficult for most to finance. Here at Fernando, we have always believed in maintaining a highly lifted cash-heavy balance sheet. Our liquidity is $2.39 billion, comprised of cash balances of $978 billion, and our undrawn credit lines of $1.41 billion. Over the last several months, we extended maturity through 2031 on nearly $3.5 billion of debt, and we sold $500 million, or 5.75% seven-year bonds, to pre-fund the maturity of our $400 million, 2.15% June 26 bonds. Why did we go to market six months early? We followed the golden rule that it's wise to take the money when the markets are wide open and welcoming, and that certainly allows us to sleep at night. We are pretty good at math, and it's clear to us that there is a huge disconnect between our stock price and the value of our assets. Accordingly, we have gently put our toe in the stock buyback water. Over the last few months, we've bought back 2,352,000 shares for $80 million at an average price of approximately $34. Since our border authorization in 2023, we bought back a total of 4,376,000 shares for 109 million at an average price of approximately $25 per share. Think about this. Renato stock is a better buy today than it was at $15 three years ago. But as a believer in the predictive power of the stock market, I am certainly aware of the recent decline in our stock and, in fact, the decline in all real estate stocks. In our case, the decline was in the face of best fundamentals in Manhattan in the last 20 years. While this most likely represents a great buying opportunity, we will proceed with care looking over our shoulder. There are few investments we can find that are more attractive right now than our stocks. This disconnect continues. We will become more aggressive. As you can see from my opening remarks, we have a lot going on. I can tell you that the activity level in the market and in our office is double what it was. All good stuff, but it's fun. Now, Michael, your turn.
Thank you, Steve, and good morning, everyone. Comparable FFO was $2.32 per share for the year. As previously forecasted, this was slightly higher compared to 2024 comparable FFO and better than we had anticipated at the beginning of the year. Fourth quarter comparable FFO was $0.55 per share, compared to $0.61 per share for fourth quarter 2024. This decrease was primarily due to higher net interest expense and the lease termination income at 330 West 34th Street in the prior year's quarter, partially offset by rent commencements, net of lease expirations, higher FFO resulting from the NYU master lease at 770 Broadway, and higher NOI from our signage business. We have provided a quarter-over-quarter bridge on page two of our earnings release, and on both company, same-store GAAP NOI was up 5% for the quarter, while same-store cash NOI was down 8.3%. As explained last quarter, GAAP is more relevant to earnings, given the cash numbers impacted by free rent from the significant amount of leasing in recent quarters, as well as the adjustment in cash rent related to the PEN1 ground lease truck. Now turning to 2026, as we've previously mentioned, we still expect 2026 comparable FFO to be in line with 2025 due to the anticipation of some non-core asset sales in taking income offline in connection with our plans to redevelop 350 Park Avenue and the 34th and 7th retail at Penn. First quarter will be more impacted due to gap rents ramping up throughout the year, higher interest expense from our recent bond issuance, and some seasonality relating to our signage business. As we previously indicated, we expect there to be significant earnings growth in 2027 as the positive impact from PEN 1 and PEN 2 lease up takes effect. We had indicated on prior calls that we expected to achieve New York office occupancy in the low 90s in 2026. We got there early. New York office occupancy increased this quarter to 91.2% from 88.4% last quarter due to the significant volume of leasing we accomplished, principally in the Penn District. As we execute on our strong leasing pipeline, we anticipate that our occupancy will continue to increase over the next year or so. Turning to the capital markets. The financing markets also recognize that the New York office market is back and performing at a level superior to any other market. The financing markets for these assets are very strong and liquid, with CMBS spreads reaching their tightest levels since 2021, and banks continuing to expand lending for Class A assets with solid rent rules. The unsecured bond market also remains strong and continues to be constructive for office credits in the right markets, with new issue spreads remaining tight. We took advantage of both these markets recently. As Steve mentioned, since last quarter, we've been very active in refinancing our near-term maturities and bolstering liquidity with nearly $3.5 billion of financings. In addition to completing several mortgage refinancings, we also refinanced our unsecured term loan, upsizing the loan amount by $50 million to $850 million, and extending the loan's maturity date from December 2027 to February 2031. We also refinanced one of our two revolving credit facilities and upsized the second facility. So now we have one $1.13 billion revolving credit facility that matures in February 2031 and another $1 billion revolving credit facility that matures in April 2029. We very much appreciate the strong show of commitment from our banks, including a few new entrants to our facilities. We also took advantage of the strong conditions in the unsecured market and completed a $500 million seven-year unsecured bond offering at 5.75%, which was significantly oversubscribed. A portion of net proceeds from these notes will be used to repay our $400 million senior unsecured notes to mature in June. In total, since mid-2025, we have refinanced or repaid almost half of our balance sheet, including almost all of our unsecured debt, terming out our maturities and putting our balance sheet on even stronger footing. Our net debt to EBITDA metric has improved to 7.7 times from 8.6 times at the start of the year, and our fixed charge coverage ratio, as expected, continues to steadily rise. We expect these ratios will continue to improve over time as income from PIN 1 and PIN 2 comes online. In recognition of the significant improvement we've made in our balance sheet metrics over the past 18 months, S&P recently changed their credit outlook on our company from negative to stable and affirmed a triple B-minus unsecured rating. We are hopeful Fitch and Moody's will follow suit as our balance sheet continues to improve. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator for Q&A.
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star, then one on your touchtone phone. If you wish to be removed from the queue, please press star, then two. If you are using a speakerphone, you may need to pick up the headset first before pressing the numbers. Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one on your touchtone phone. Each caller will be allowed to ask a question and a follow-up question before we move on to the next caller. And the first question will come from Dylan Brzezinski with Green Street. Please go ahead.
Bye, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just touching on the 350 park announcement in the release, is there anything that's changed in the structure at all versus what was originally disclosed back in, I think, December of 2022?
Good morning, Dylan. Thanks for joining. So, you know, in terms of the agreement, you know, Ken Griffin wanted to accelerate the option exercise, which we were fine with. And, you know, in the course of that, you know, there were some amendments, you know, related to the overall deal. Nothing, I would say, tremendously substantive in terms of the economics, but it gave Vornado and Rudin the flexibility to effectively, rather than just a fixed equity percentage investing anywhere from, I think, you know, we put our percentage of 20 to 36%. So, you know, that's the main change. A couple other minor things, but I think that was the most material thing. Project, you know, we're very excited about, he's very excited about, you know, obviously in the filing the clock started, but we're excited about it. And I know there were questions about the put or so on. You know, we intend to be part of this project.
Okay, that's helpful. And can you guys kind of just talk about sort of yield expectations, what that implies on sort of a required rent level, just anything as it relates to sort of the economics? And I guess is it still Citadel's plan to sort of take down, I think it was like 50% initially?
So to that date, originally, you know, there is a formula that was unchanged. You know, Citadel, we think it's going to be, you know, the best building in the city. And, you know, we think the space we're going to have to lease is going to command the highest rents in the city.
Operator
The next question will come from Steve Sackwell with Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks. Good morning, Glenn. Could you maybe just provide a little color on just kind of your overall leasing pipeline and, you know, the conversations that you're having with tenants, you know, about space in the market today?
Hi, Steve. So our pipeline continues to be really strong, and that's even after leasing 3.7 million feet last year. As Steve sent his remarks, we're creating opportunities of big box space within the building, mainly of 10.1 and 12.90 to meet the market, have the inventory as we see tenants expanding and coming into New York rapidly with immediate needs. So those are all great signs. In the pipeline, more than half of the activity are tenants that will be new to our buildings, and the other 50% are renewals and expansions. We're seeing financial services and the law firms expand a lot within the portfolio right now. Our first quarter lease activity will reflect that. The tech tenants are also growing a lot. As you saw at 10-11 last quarter, we're seeing action everywhere. You know, New York is hitting on all cylinders. Our team is hitting on all cylinders. And coming off a huge year like we had last year, we don't see any letup in that at all.
Okay, thanks. And then maybe as a follow-up, Steve, you mentioned the share buybacks and the disconnect with NAV. And in other property types, we are seeing, you know, some of the public REITs lean more heavily into dispositions and, you know, both paying down debt but using those excess proceeds to buy back stock. Is that something that, you know, you would entertain more aggressively, given where the stock is today?
Any other comments beyond yes?
Double yes. We have a few assets up for sale, which will generate capital. We think our stock is stupid cheap. I think in past years I said stupid, stupid, double stupid, so that's double yes. The stock is probably the single best investment we can make now. So other than 6-2-3-5, which is obviously up in the next question will come from Floris Van Dykem with Leidenberg.
Operator
Please go ahead.
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. My question is regarding the difference between your cash and gap same-store NOI. And I think, Michael, you indicated that throughout the year this is going to inflect. Can you give us a sense of when that inflection point will happen and when your cash NOI will turn positive?
Good morning, Flores. You know, I think I said on the last call that it remains the case that we would start to see that flip over in the second half of 26, and that remains the case. So I think you'll see it improve, you know, quarter by quarter for the year to start paying rent.
I mean, the answer is when the very ugly and painful free rent burns off, that's when the cash begins to become positive and thoughts and reflect similarity to gap. That's coming and coming pretty soon.
My follow-up question is regarding your retail, particularly your Upper Fifth Avenue retail. Maybe could you talk about what's happening to rents there relative to in-place, and maybe remind everyone what your in-place rents are for your Upper Fifth Avenue JV, and then potential monetizations for that. And I believe what's happening with this 657 Fifth Avenue, I think that's a new meta. Is that a permanent lease or is that still a pop-up lease?
Oh, boy. There's activity on the meta lease, which really is inappropriate to talk about it now. So that's step one, which involves the meta store going long term. With respect to the leases generally, the retail market on Upper Fifth and Times Square is improving dramatically and rapidly, but it is still struggling to meet the top-tick rents of four or five years ago. It's getting there, but it's struggling.
Operator
The next question will come from John Kim with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Steve, you gave some very interesting information on the difference between the gap occupancy and lease occupancy. I'm assuming that $200 million difference is annualized. But I was wondering how much of that you expect to get by the end of this year and by the end of 2017.
It's actually not annualized. It's an absolute number. And to be honest with you, my finance guys are sitting here right across from me shooting daggers at me. The number is higher than $200 million, but in an abundance of caution, they wanted to keep it at $200 million. So $200 million is a slightly low number. It's a one-timer number, and it feeds in as tenants go into GAAP. It feeds into GAAP as tenants either take occupancy or they meet the standards for GAAP recognition of income. So that's what that number is. It happens over the next, you know, as the leases mature, not mature is not the right word, as the leases...
Speaker 4
The tenants build out their spaces, right? It's when we can start recognizing gap revenue.
The gap recognition is the tenants have to either build out their spaces or take occupancy. That happens, I have a plot of exactly how much per month. The thing about it is that is income, which is in the bag, put at the end of that paragraph, something that's two years out, which is something we never do. So it's kind of like strange. I wouldn't rely upon it too much. It's not a guaranteed, certified, I'll bet my life on it number, but it's sort of a number. But the $200 million, which is a little bit more than that, 100% certainty comes in income over the next number of years. Now, the interesting thing about it is, which I tried to say, is financials are sort of a little bit complicated. It'll move out. There are other things which will affect earnings positively. Anything to add there, Tom? No. No, I think you said it.
For those of us who like to look at percentage terms, the 91.2% least occupancy, what is that in terms of physical or economic occupancy?
Well, it's 92, it's 90-whatever, what is it, 91.2?
In New York City, in New York, it's 91.2%.
In Manhattan office, it's 91 and change versus 88 and change. And, by the way, we expect that occupancy number to go up.
Operator
The next question will come from Jana Gallen with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. Maybe also following up on some of the strange guidance, if we could get some more details on 623-5th, and did I catch in your comments that it could add 11 cents to FFO?
I'm sorry, I didn't get the question. 623-5th. What about comments on 11 cents?
Well, it's just math. So my guys are laughing at me, but I mean, I'm in love with this asset. I think it's probably the best acquisition ever. So the building is basically empty. The prior owner was emptying the building out to convert it to residential. We think that that's not the right program. We're going to make it. Glenn's assignment to me is make this thing the 220 boutique office, meaning the best of the best of the best, which will generate the best income. So we believe that the finished product will cost $1,100 and change, say, $1,200 a foot rounding. And we believe that the net income on the project will generate a scant, I think we have on the supplement, 10.1%. So if you say that the project costs $1,200 a foot and it's going to have a 10% return, if any building will command a 5% cap rate in the market, which starts on the 11th floor, 11 cent in that number, $50 million of income, less the cost of capital on the $1,200 of 47% or slightly more than 11%. That answers your question then.
No, thank you. That's very helpful. And then just in terms of the development costs, and I think there's debt on it now that you probably need to term out. What are kind of your expectations on that?
We're going to finance the building as we always do. It's not a great deal of money. One of the keys to it is probably the end of 27, which is we get done with the project, we will keep it in our portfolio because we will expect that the rents will go up and up as an answer to this. We finance all of our projects.
Operator
The next question will come from Alexander Goldfarb with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Hey, good morning. Morning, Steve. Can you guys walk through on 350 Park? I know, Steve, you mentioned that it's part of the guidance to this year and that on a recurring FFO, it's flat but can you just walk through sort of the mechanics of the income and how that is there's a master lease but then you'll capitalize it so just want to understand the net effect especially as we think about our 27 and what the carryover is from 350 going because you're you said you're going to stay in the project so just want to understand the full effect you're talking about the transition from the existing uh 350 park avenue building which will be taken out of service and demolish starting next month into a capitalized interest model.
Yeah, because I think there's a master lease right now, right? There is.
There is. So that's going to terminate – well, it'll be adjusted, I should say, when demolition starts, which will be April 1st. So the answer is there's going to be a little bit of a negative impact in 26 as we transition from demo to full capitalization. And, you know, next year it'll be capitalized and it'll be basically on par with what it was last year, but a little bit down this year.
Okay. And then the second question is, Steve, on the dividend, you're one of the few companies that still is, you know, paying a reduced, you know, a stub dividend, if you will. You talked about, you know, your liquidity. You talked about, you know, improving on the balance sheet, the rent that's coming online over the next few years. and yet there's still a lot of capital projects that you have in terms of various development projects. So how do you see the dividend versus taxable income, and when do you see a full normal quarterly restoration of it?
Well, first of all, we may be one of the few companies, I'm not sure of that, but there is a hue and cry in the marketplace for people that are overpaying their dividend to reduce their dividend and conserve the cash. So we're sort of aware of that. But nonetheless, you know, as a large shareholder, our management team at our board has a high incentive to pay a normalized dividend. A normalized dividend is in relation to two things. The Internal Revenue Code requires that we pay out our taxable income. But also, common sense says that we should pay to our shareholders something which approximates the income stream of a normalized business. So it's not impossible that our regular income would be higher than our taxable income. So we have an incentive to get back to a normal dividend as soon as we can, which will not be this year, by the way. As we get back to normalcy, our income stream, getting all of the renting that we...
Operator
The next question will come from Anthony Pallone with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Okay, thanks. I guess my first question, I was wondering if you could help a bit with sources and uses of funds over the next couple of years, because as I'm listening to this, you've got a couple of redevelopments that you now have teed up. You talked about, I think, last quarter, maybe building an apartment project. Buybacks are a priority. Sounds like you're going to be spending real money on 350 Park in the next couple of years. That gets underway. Just trying to add all this up and get a sense as to sources and uses, basically.
Tony, good morning. I can't give you dollar figure by dollar figure. What I would say is, as you would expect, you know, we're not willy-nilly frill-less, right? We have a capital plan. We know what's in front of us, you know, and we have a business plan, right? And that business plan is a combination of, you know, financings, generally at the asset level, some asset sales, you know, et cetera. So, and I would say in terms of the development projects, other than 623, which will be executed, you know, this year and next, you know, the other projects are more back-ended, particularly 350, to the extent we invest above the land contribution, which we don't have to, although I think given the attractiveness of it, we will.
We will, right? that capital, you know, given that our partner has to true up with us first and the bank's going to fund some of that, there's no meaningful capital on 350 for several years. So the answer is we have a plan. We can do all the things that we've elected in the past. We have some things in the works, but that we can execute those. And we're going to be, you know, as Steve said in his opening remarks, we're going to be mindful on the buybacks once we have, you know, the appropriate capital and to deal with everything else?
So, look, we have a lot of things that we want to do, which we think are significant shareholder value. So one of them is buying back our stock, which is a separate thing with CARE and screw up our balance sheet, which we will not do. So one of the uses is buying back stock. So that's sort of like a subtraction. we do that capital assets available the next thing is 350 park is a very important above that 623 uh fifth avenue project is project is you know that's multifamily finances very well we already have the land unencumbered you know the next part of it is so that's a little bit about the uses that reminds you that more valuable thanks thanks for all that uh and then just my
My only follow-up is 3 is 54th. I was wondering, what's it cost to build a smaller building like that? I guess we're getting used to well over $2,000 a foot for the larger avenue-type developments, it seems. I'm just wondering if there's any appreciable difference in a smaller mid-block asset like that.
A little bit less. A little bit less.
But not appreciably less.
Operator
The next question will come from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thanks for taking the question. So two ones. One, just a follow-up. I want to just be crystal clear on the 40 cents going to next year. Is that an NOI comment, incremental contribution? Is that sort of an FFO comment? Just how should we think about that and maybe just other big-picture moving pieces as we think about this massive earnings ramp? it's uh it's ffo beckham okay it's ffo okay helpful um just on uh street retail i think uh you know the team hired numark uh and the sort of a re-envisioning of penn station uh penn district street retail um i'm just wondering as you've thought about like the the the street retail portfolio there is there like a broad range or like a after doing all of this what's the noi uplift over the long term?
We haven't split that out, and we're not really publishing projections on that. We will sometime in the short-term future, but we haven't done that yet. But, you know, basically, the Penn District is a district. It's office buildings. It's retail. It's events. It's a gathering place. It's the perch. It's the town halls. It's a system of interaction and hospitality and workplaces, which is important. Each plays off the other and increments the other and helps the other. So the retail is very important as a separate business, but it's extremely important as it affects our demand for the office space.
Operator
The next question will come from Nick Uliko with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.
First, on PEN2, I was hoping you could just remind us about, you know, for the leases that were done so far, when they're set to commence. I think MLS was assumed early this year, and then I guess, you know, the bulk is sort of 2027 beyond. But I guess in relation to like the 80% lease number that you give for that asset, just how to think about when that will actually turn into, you know, GAAP, NOI, I guess how much of that 80% actually is fully in 2027 as you're talking about that ramp next year.
That's actually a question about detailed guidance, which, as you know, we don't do.
Pen 2, more of it will be online in 27 to 26.
I mean, just in terms of the commencements this year, then, what is it? Is I think MLS was assumed what early this year? Is there anything else that's listed there from the tenants in the SUP where their leases haven't commenced that you expect commencement?
I would make a suggestion. Call Tom Wolfline and see if you can wrangle that answer out of him, which I doubt you will. I mean, you know, you can use your own judgment. I mean, these are big leases, and they will come on, you know, in the next six months. If they don't come on in the next six months, they come on in the next 12 months. But from my point of view, as an investor, it really doesn't matter that much. So they're coming. Whether they come three months sooner or three months later, you know, that's interesting, but not this positive. But call Tom. See what you can get out of Tom. He's sort of laughing, by the way. He's anxious for your call.
Operator
The next question will come from Ronald Camden with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
We're going back a minute. Going back a minute. I was really not trying to be anything other than responsive to your question for a company that really doesn't do detailed month-by-month guidance. So, with respect, we'll talk. Next question.
Matt
Analyst — Morgan Stanley
Hey, guys. This is Matt on for Ron. Thanks for taking the question. Just going to the New York office, TIs and LCs as a percentage of initial rent, I noticed that ticked up in the quarter. I was kind of wondering what the drivers were and how we could think about the trend for the rest of the 2026.
Hi, it's Glenn. It's certainly not a trend. It was an outlier quarter. We made a couple of deals where we stretched a TI with not as much term on the leases as we would have liked, but we wanted the tenants in these buildings for reasons. We love the tenants. We love their credit profile, and they were great users for the assets, but not a trend at all. I expect we'll go back, you know, to the, you know, we've been around 12%, 13% over the last few quarters, and I think concessions will tighten going forward here this year. Free rents are already starting to come down, and TIs are really starting to squeeze. So short answer, not a trend at all.
Matt
Analyst — Morgan Stanley
Got it. And then just as a follow-up, I noticed the projected cash yield on Sunset Pier 94 declined despite what looked like solid leasing activity on the property. Could you talk about what the drivers of that were? reality, which is our business, by the way.
The streaming business has some challenges, as you all know and read about in the papers. The fact that we leased 100% of the space at the opening, the short-term leases, they're not even a year long, so that's an interesting thing, but not indicative of the future. And it's just a matter of seeing the realistic in our projection as to what the yield on the project will be. So the 10% went down to 9% as a result of- The next question will come from Brendan Lynch with Barclays.
Operator
Please go ahead.
Thank you. This is Annabelle Ayer on for Brendan Lynch. How should we think about the expected retention rate on the remaining 2026 expirations, especially the 600,000 square feet in the fourth quarter? And are there any larger blocks of space that you would call out?
Great question, Glenn. Hi, it's Glenn. We feel really good about the expirations this year. We're on top of all of them, as you would expect. On the larger block expirations, we expect two of them to renew. So we feel good about our expiration schedule. We've taken care of, you know, huge expirations over the past three years. So if you look forward to 26, 27, we're in great shape. So, you know, I think we'll be more than fine as it relates to attacking the future expires.
As you can tell from all of our remarks today, we're extremely constructive about the office market in Manhattan. We believe that it is tightening. We believe that rents are going up. And by the way, rents are going up more rapidly than TIs or tenant inducements are going down. So our projection is, and I know Glenn can give you his opinion, is that free rent can go down because that's a discretionary item. TIs will probably not go down because the cost of construction of the tenant spaces is not going down and it's not going up. So we believe the easiest is for the rents to go up. The second is for free rent to go down. TIs are going to be very, very sticky.
I agree with that. Although I will tell you on the TIs. Careful now because you have to produce the results. But on the TIs, we're definitely squeezing them in terms of not being as flexible as we were. So I think the first signal is they're not going up for sure. We're squeezing them, you know, at these ranges that we've been seeing, and hopefully they'll come down. Although I agree with Steve generally, free rents are coming down, and that's been more...
Operator
The next question will come from Seth Bergey with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. You know, I kind of wanted to go back to 350 Park. I think in your opening comments you mentioned that, you know, Citadel kind of had an appetite to take additional square footage. I think they were kind of set to occupy around $850,000. Just could you kind of quantify how much more they would, you know, be looking to take? Or, you know, are you in any other kind of conversations about pre-leasing space in that building?
Look, conversations that are still taking place. the Citadel team is still making up their mind as to what exactly their requirements are and so as soon as we know and they become firm but not now.
On the second part of your question the energy and excitement around the spec office space is excellent so we're presenting this the project to many tenants as small as even 50,000 feet so we think about it tenants who are expiring in 31, 32, 33, are already asking us to present the project. That's how much excitement there is in the market. There will be nothing like this available in New York. And people realize that. They recognize that between us and Citadel and Ken Griffin, this will be the best.
And by the way, you can tell we're pretty damn proud of it. That's helpful. I'd like to try and end up today as close to 11 o'clock as we can. So it's 11 o'clock now. So how many more questions do we have? This is it. This is it? No more questions? Really? Well, anyway, thank you all very much for joining us. We're very excited about the business. We're very active. The activity level, as I said, has palpably doubled what it was even as recently as a year ago. And thank you all very much for your support. We'll see you at the next quarter.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, you may now disconnect.