Good day, and welcome to AdvanSix First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Adam Kressel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Cindy. Good morning, and welcome to AdvanSix's first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Erin Kane; and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Preston. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advansix.com. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that way. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC. This morning, we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2024 and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to AdvanSix's President and CEO, Erin Kane.

Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your continued interest in AdvanSix. As you saw in our press release, our first quarter performance was impacted by the previously announced process-based operational disruption at our Frankford, Pennsylvania site, along with a delayed ramp to targeted utilization rates across our integrated value chain. The total unfavorable impact to pretax income in the first quarter was approximately $27 million, comprised of the impact of lost sales and other additional costs, including purchases of replacement products and incremental plant spend. This disruption was fully resolved in the first quarter and I would like to once again thank our customers, partners, and teammates for the collaboration to mitigate the impact on the value chain. Looking ahead to the second quarter and remainder of 2024, there are a number of operational and commercial tailwinds at our back. We returned to targeted plant utilization rates and are well positioned to serve our key customers, in Plant Nutrients as the domestic planting season progresses and in our acetone portfolio amid a tight global supply and demand environment. We also expect nylon industry spreads to modestly improve through 2024 off 2023 trough levels. Critical to our stakeholders, importantly our customers, I'm proud to share that in recent weeks we've achieved a number of external recognitions for our corporate social responsibility and sustainability performance. We earned our third consecutive Platinum rating by EcoVadis, received strong ratings by CDP for water security and climate change, and were certified by ISCC PLUS across our manufacturing sites at Frankford, Hopewell, and Chesterfield. We had a proven ability and demonstrated playbook with our diverse product portfolio to navigate and manage through various cycles and macro dynamics, evolving as we go to meet the needs of our end markets. As a diversified chemistry company, we take pride in our long legacy of success and track record of serving as a trusted partner for our customers. We'll continue to position our business for long-term sustainable performance through our smart and disciplined investments and remain focused on accelerating growth in the most profitable areas of our portfolio. Now let me turn the call over to Mike.

Thanks, Erin, and good morning, everyone. I'm now on Slide 4 where I will provide a summary of the first quarter 2024 financials. Sales of $337 million decreased approximately 16% versus the prior year. Market-based pricing was unfavorable by 9%. This primarily reflects reduced ammonium sulfate pricing amid lower raw material input costs and a more stable global nitrogen supply environment, as well as lower nylon pricing due to unfavorable supply and demand conditions. Sales volume decreased approximately 7%, primarily driven by lost sales resulting from the first quarter operational disruption. Raw material pass-through pricing was approximately flat. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $1 million, down from $65 million in the prior year period. The impact of the first quarter operational disruption and unfavorable market-based pricing, net of raw material costs, were the primary drivers of the earnings decline. Volume mix and other items were unfavorable year-over-year, primarily reflecting lower production in the quarter. Adjusted earnings per share was a loss of $0.56. The effective tax rate was 25.7% in the quarter versus 21% in the prior year, primarily due to a larger tax benefit last year related to the vesting of equity compensation. We continue to anticipate our full year 2024 effective tax rate to be approximately 24%. Free cash flow was negative $72 million in the quarter compared to negative $23 million in the first quarter of 2023. Cash flow from operations declined $38 million year-over-year, primarily as a result of the lower net income and the impact of changes in working capital. Capital expenditures of $35 million in the quarter increased $11 million versus the prior year, primarily reflecting increased spend on enterprise programs and other maintenance projects. On a trailing 12-month basis through the first quarter, our debt leverage was approximately 2 times when normalizing for the impact of the operational disruption. We anticipate debt leverage to remain within our target range of 1 times to 2.5 times in 2024. We also anticipate free cash flow to improve in the second quarter sequentially on higher earnings. As a reminder, we incur an unfavorable impact on our cash flow in the first half from the unwinding of ammonium sulfate pre-buy cash advances as we do each year. Now let's turn to Slide 5. Here, we highlight the key drivers of our first quarter adjusted EBITDA performance sequentially from the fourth quarter of 2023. In the quarter, we began to see tailwinds from a commercial perspective, with pricing over raw materials improving by $11 million. Tracking our key variable margin drivers, ammonium sulfate on a net price over natural gas and sulfur basis was up sequentially as prices strengthened through the quarter, coupled with lower input costs. Chemical intermediates price over raw spread increased as well, driven by an expansion in acetone margins over propylene. Performance across our nylon portfolio over our key raws was a modest headwind sequentially, while caprolactam was relatively flat. Volume, sales mix and other items provided improved performance of $7 million, largely reflecting lower nylon export sales in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. SG&A costs were approximately $1 million favorable on lower functional spend. Finally, as discussed, the operational disruption was $27 million unfavorable, and we had an additional $5 million of planned plant turnaround impact in the quarter. Now let me turn the call back to Erin.

Thanks, Mike. I'm now on Slide 6 to further discuss each of our key product lines. Starting with nylon. We've seen global industry spread stabilize in the first quarter, while the Asia benchmark saw declines following the sequential improvement in the fourth quarter. Though, as we expected, we are trending favorably, albeit slowly, off the 3Q '23 trough. Demand globally remains soft, while varying regional dynamics, including competitive intensity and trade flows, continue to impact regional pricing. Despite long supply and demand fundamentals, estimated operating rates out of China remain elevated, resulting in continued nylon exports to the rest of the world. Here in North America, demand has been stable, albeit on a lower base, with continued weakness in building and construction markets as a result of the higher interest rate environment. Supply has been tighter in the region with production downtime across the industry, which has led to modest pricing increases trending into the second quarter. For our business, we continue to focus on driving productivity to improve unit profitability, optimizing our sales mix through target customer selling while leveraging our competitive position to meet demand where it exists. In the fertilizer space, global nitrogen pricing began the quarter relatively steady and began to decline mid-March. In contrast, we have seen ammonium sulfate pricing strengthen through the first quarter and into the second quarter amid continued sulfur demand growth and reduced supply in North America. While we did see cautious buying behavior at the start of the year, we've now entered the heart of the season with a strong order book and we are seeing strong pull out of terminals for product going to the fields to support nutrient demand for traditional corn applications along with growth on soybeans. The actions we drove to position ourselves to capitalize on the expected strength of the season are paying off. Lastly, in chemical intermediates, industry realized acetone prices over refinery grade propylene costs continued to improve in the first quarter with spreads sitting at multiyear highs. While acetone demand has seen softness, particularly into the large buyer end applications, with some downstream MMA producers taking turnarounds in the first quarter, we see supply is tight globally. This has been supported by persistent lower global phenol operating rates on reduced demand into value chains serving building and construction and other industrial applications. Let's turn to Slide 7. We're encouraged by our improved outlook heading into the second quarter with both operational and commercial benefits anticipated. Operationally, we returned to our expected robust plant utilization rates, ensuring we are well positioned to serve our customers across each line of business. We continue to expect capital expenditures in the range of $140 million to $150 million in 2024, reflecting increased spend year-over-year to address critical enterprise risk mitigation and growth projects. The projects within our SUSTAIN program are progressing well. We now anticipate reaching approximately 70% ammonium sulfate granular conversion by the end of 2024. As a reminder, SUSTAIN stands for sustainable U.S. sulfate to accelerate increased nutrition, and we continue to track this growth program to a robust investment return profile at our 20%-plus target hurdle rate. We also continue to expect the pretax income impact of our planned plant turnarounds to be $38 million to $43 million in 2024. Off-note, the timing of our larger turnaround has now shifted from the third quarter to the fourth quarter as we firmed up our planning for the year. As I shared, we see and anticipate positive trends commercially for ammonium sulfate and acetone to continue and are cautiously optimistic on nylon to modestly improve as the year progresses. The strength of our business model and our position as a diversified chemistry company will serve us well, and we continue to expect performance this year to demonstrate our resilience. We've consistently come through cycles as a stronger company that can maintain robust investment for growth, sustain good cash conversion over the long term, and structurally improve the underlying earnings power of our business. Let's turn to Slide 8. To wrap up before moving to Q&A, I'd like to further discuss the recent highlights related to our sustainability initiatives and performance. As I mentioned earlier, we were awarded our third consecutive Platinum rating by EcoVadis, an independent corporate social responsibility assessment agency. The Platinum rating puts the Company in the top 1% of all companies assessed. This is a compelling recognition of the hard work and achievements of our AdvanSix teammates who embed responsible and sustainable business practices into delivering for our customers, communities, and our stakeholders every day. In addition, we were once again rated on our water security and climate practices by CDP, a global nonprofit that operates the leading environmental disclosure platform. Our submission was recognized in the top leadership category with an improved A- rating for water security and we maintained our strong B rating for climate change. Both of these ratings compare very favorably with peers across the globe and within the chemicals industry. Finally, we recently were certified to the ISCC PLUS standard for three of our manufacturing sites, Frankford, Hopewell, and Chesterfield. ISCC PLUS is a globally recognized voluntary certification system for developing sustainable supply chains. The certification validates the adoption of transparent and traceable practices, particularly for organizations applying a mass balance approach to track feedstocks and their sustainability characteristics. This also complements our existing post-industrial recycled and post-consumer recycled nylon product lines. By enabling solutions that reflect our sustainability focus while also helping our customers transform and meet their own environmental goals, together, we are building a more socially responsible future. With that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.

Thanks, Erin. Cindy, can you please open the line for questions?

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Our first question comes from Charles Neivert of Piper Sandler. Go ahead, please.

Morning, guys. Just a couple of questions...

Morning.

Good morning.

On the nylon side, you said some of these exports of nylon have been reduced. How far away are you from, I'd say, sort of that pre-run normal? And how long do you think it'll take you to get back there? And the other question is, from the downtime to what degree do you think it may have constrained your ability to move product into the agricultural space? I mean, how much product is lost in that respect? Or will you be able to catch up? And lastly, as you move to more granular, I know that you guys have talked in the past about granular and standard, and that the South American markets which take your product in the non-U.S. agricultural season tended to be more toward a standard side. Are they taking more granular now? So I'll stop it. I'll leave it there.

Thanks for the questions, Charlie. Let's break that down. Regarding nylon exports, as we discussed last quarter, we expected a higher export rate, aligning with our exit run rate for 2023, which was in the high-20s. By the end of 2024, due to operational disruptions and our focus on optimizing product mix and sales, particularly with our contract and domestic customers, that rate has decreased to about 15%. This is more in line with our historical norms. We anticipate some fluctuations as the year progresses, especially since production in the industry has been constrained in recent months. We aim to realign our value chain in North America and depending on market improvements in the second half, we might see an increase in exports. Our cost structure in caprolactam positions us well to meet demand, and we remain focused on targeted sales, optimizing our mix, and ensuring profitability in nylon. Regarding AS, there has been little impact. Although sales in the first quarter were down, we made purchases to safeguard our supply during peak season in Q2. We're well-prepared now in the season, ensuring our customers and farmers can effectively plan. Finally, when it comes to granular and standard products, we’re expanding our granular sales and production to support growth in North America. We have historically limited export of granular in the first half, and as we enhance that conversion level, our focus will remain on domestic demand. However, we will continue to maintain some export sales, as we have strong customers in various regions for our standard products.

Thanks very much.

Did I capture the essence of where you were or is there any further clarification?

Yes, Charlie. All right?

Hello, can you hear us?

Sorry, what was the...

No worries.

Excuse me, Charlie, would you like to respond?

I'm sorry, I missed the response. Sorry. What was that question back?

We'll come back to you, Charlie.

Okay. The next question comes from David Silver of CL King. Go ahead, please.

Yes. Hi, good morning. Thank you.

Morning.

So I kind of have a scatter of questions here, so I apologize in advance if it hops around a bit. I listened with interest to your comments about how AS pricing has progressed during the run-up to the planting season and timing looks very favorable. There is another issue that I was hoping you could maybe lend some perspective on, and that is the relationship between AS pricing and urea pricing. So there's always some variation and certainly different pricing points or delivery points have different relationships. But that said, I mean, by the information I've been tracking, it looks like AS pricing is unusually favorable for you relative to urea. And I'm just wondering if you could point to something that might have driven that relationship more in AS' favor. Is it your outage, for example? But more to the point, I mean, how sustainable would that unusually favorable or historically unusually favorable relationship persist? I'll stop there. Thanks.

So maybe just to reground everyone and ourselves, we have nitrogen and sulfur in our ammonium sulfate product lines, and we talk about the relationship on nitrogen to urea because that is the largest nitrogen fertilizer and such that nutrient value for the nitrogen in AS. So we really are marketing and providing ammonium sulfate for this sulfur nutrition and certainly, AS has proven to deliver pound for pound the most readily available sulfur and nitrogen to a wide variety of crops. So when we price, we have that base consideration, which is why, like you said, you track where nitrogen is headed. But we really have always been focused on pricing to earn the premium for sulfur as well. And effectively, what we are seeing right now is the value that ag customers in the value chain are placing on sulfur due to the yield benefit in what has become a tight market for AS as well. So it really is those fundamentals. There is a linkage to the base nutrient value, but again, that focus on the premium that's earned, and that premium is earned in a supply/demand environment. Sulfur nutrition is also growing, as we alluded to. Certainly, we see that demand growth. There is the work we've been doing on soybeans, and certainly several customers down the chain this season have reported a big uptake on sulfate use this season on soybeans. And so I think it's those combination of factors, David, that are leading to the opportunity and the pricing situation that we're in today.

Okay. Thank you for that. And I was getting a little feedback when Charlie was asking one or two of his questions. So I apologize if I'm making you repeat yourself. But this goes back to your comment about increasing the percentage of your AS in the granular form to up to 70%. And I'm just kind of wondering, I mean, your sales strategies vary in different seasons of the year and other factors, but in thinking about having the flexibility, right, to increase the percentage of granular product, premium priced product to maybe 10 percentage points. As you look back, has there been a period in the past, I don't know, five years to 10 years, where AdvanSix wouldn't benefit from selling their maximum output in the form of granular? In other words, is this really adding flexibility, or is this just increasing the amount year after year that you intend to sell in the granular form?

We have been consistently increasing granular conversion in our operations for quite some time. The SUSTAIN program aims to achieve a total of 75%, and we are currently on track to reach 70% this year, exceeding our initial plan. However, the simple answer is no; there has never been a point in history where granular has not been more profitable than standard. This is the growth direction we are heading in. Considering mechanized agriculture and our customers' needs, particularly in North America, the fundamentals are moving forward. This aligns well with our long-term strategy, and the investment we are making will allow us to take a significant step forward.

Good. Thank you. That makes my modeling that much simpler. Thank you. I would like to switch over to your comments about nylon and how you anticipate some moderate improvement this year after what's been a very difficult stretch overall in that particular product line, nylon and capro. And I have to confess, I'm a little bit, I don't know what the word, I wouldn't say confused, but I'm questioning kind of the thought process behind anticipating an improvement. In other words, and I apologize, but you mentioned that nylon production rates in China continue to be frustratingly high. And I'm not really aware of a dramatic pickup in auto builds or, I don't know, capacity closures or regulatory actions, whatever, but maybe just a little bit of background or perspective on why you're anticipating after a very difficult stretch, why there should be some moderate easing in the fundamentals such that there might be some improvement or you anticipate some improvement in your financial results there. Thank you.

Yes, we are cautiously optimistic. Considering the macroeconomic factors, there are indications of continued strong performance in the automotive and packaging sectors, which are the strongest in North America. Building construction, being the larger market, has been slower to recover. As we look at residential and commercial construction, we are monitoring interest rates and other factors that could lead to a more typical demand returning to these areas. In terms of Asia, there are logistical challenges, particularly with the Panama Canal and issues in the Middle East that are affecting logistics into Europe. Additionally, cycles do not always repeat exactly, but we are experiencing a prolonged downturn compared to historical patterns. Typically, we would expect some structure to return to the market, as seen with reduced operating rates in Europe and parts of Asia, including the shutdown of Sumitomo in Japan. While this recovery may not be quick, we anticipate a gradual improvement, as we've noticed a slight uptick off the trough over the past two quarters, though the pace is slow.

Got it. Thank you. I appreciate that. And maybe just one last question. This would be with your chemical intermediates segment or product line. And you did talk about the strength in acetone, but I was wondering maybe if you had some comments about the progress or whatnot on the U.S. Amines side of the business. In other words, the various intermediates there. And in particular, I believe agriculture is a pretty significant end market for the output there. And I'm just wondering if what you're seeing from the U.S. Amines intermediates side is jiving with your comments on ammonium sulfate as well. Thanks.

Yes. When we consider the broader agriculture sector, there's a clear distinction between fertilizer and crop protection and agricultural chemicals. The U.S. Amines products are part of the agricultural chemical sector, as they integrate into the herbicide value chain. We continue to observe reports from others highlighting destocking and overall sluggish demand, which aligns with our experiences and what others in the industry are sharing. This indicates that we are in a season that is correcting from the previous year, creating a challenge for us in the U.S. Amines sector. Nevertheless, we are making progress. The project pipeline linked to our core investment strategies for business growth, based on the asset base we acquired, is advancing, which remains a positive aspect that we are closely monitoring. The market dynamics are likely to stabilize as we move into the next agricultural season.

Okay. You hit right on the aspect I was wondering about. Thanks very much. I'll get back in queue.

Thanks, David.

Thanks, David.

Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone.

Good morning.

I think I'll just segue off of David real quick. Beyond agriculture and U.S. Amines, could you maybe just level set how your mix has been trending, say, the last two, three quarters? So, including things like your higher value nylon products, your film business, your oximes, kind of stacking up all of those little buckets and how that's looked? And if we start seeing a broader demand recovery, is there a bit more pent-up margin with those coming back in relative terms? Or has it been pretty stable?

Yes, it's certainly when we think about those product lines that have stickier and more differentiated margins, as we've shared, have been impacted by the downturn, most notably, probably is our Nadone product line, which is a high purity application into solvents and electronics, and that is still quite weak. And so I think as we see that recovery, and certainly there's a lot of broader macro trends that should support that going forward, as you indicate, that will be a positive as we see that come through. And likewise, coatings in Europe have been a headwind as well here on the oxime side for 2-PO or EZ-Blox. And so the differentiated products haven't been immune to the broader macro considerations, and certainly, as we see more broad-based recovery, that will come back in as a tailwind as well in the future.

Okay. That's helpful. And then kind of a quick one on U.S. Amines. I think when you first bought it, you mentioned it had a favorable acetone contract, at least for the time being, but something like a swap agreement could be a possibility in the future to get that asset more closely integrated into your acetone cost structure. I'm just curious where we stand with how long that contract lasts? And if it still makes sense to be looking at getting it closer to your acetone?

Yes, I think the easiest way to think about this, Vincent, here, is just like in all of our supply agreements and considerations that all options are open. We have a good relationship and partnership with the current supplier. The flexibility works. There is, as you could imagine, in this space, co-producer relationships given shutdowns, operations, whatever it may be, swaps come into play. And so I think it's simple to say we keep all of our options open relative to being able to drive the best decisions, profitability, and growth for the company.

Okay. Fair enough. And then coming back to the move and the turnaround schedule for this year, I'm just curious if any of that was driven by, like, a need to have more time to rebuild inventory ahead of it. And kind of given where it sits in the year, should we anticipate maybe a little bit less participation in the export markets in the third quarter for ammonium sulfate compared to a typical year?

Yes. So, when we moved it, it's subtle, Vincent. It's about two weeks. So when we think about September into October, there were some customer accommodations that were - that we manage because we do impact folks like our CO2 customers and others. So, AS mix shouldn't really change significantly, but it's just a matter of just lining this thing up, and it's a modest move.

Got you. Okay, that makes sense. And then just last one. Since you brought up your recycled nylon again, I wanted to maybe just touch base on how you're thinking about the commercial strategy there. If it's something you think you can basically place into a nice long-term supply agreement at attractive margins, or is this going to have to be a bit more nimble just based on how much demand there is for recycled nylon today?

Yes. So I think it's probably going to be a bit of a mix as we move forward. Certainly we have customers that have been quicker adopters and have kind of layered those into their contracts. But certainly this is a lot of targeted selling with our customers that have strong interest with consumer-facing requests and commitments. And certainly the ISCC PLUS was a significant, I would think, step forward because there were customers in the packaging industry, and to some extent, those in engineering plastics as well that have been requesting this verification and certification as a substantiation of PCR and PIR. Well, that will allow them to now really assess this into their chain. So I think it's the right step forward. A lot of interest in these types of products, but a lot of work that has to go through the value chain to earn the premiums.

Got you. And can we actually take like one step back and explain from an AdvanSix point of view, how PIR versus PCR works? Just because I only think of you as a virgin nylon producer, and so PIR makes sense. But I'm not entirely sure how PCR fits in.

Yes. So certainly the post-industrial plays in through our asset base, and our capturing and recirculation looks. The PCR, by the certification, takes into consideration the materials we bring back from our partners.

So basically wastes from their own manufacturing lines?

Yes. Anything that lets a lot of this is oligomer recapture and we reincorporate that back into our system from our downstream customers.

That's very interesting. Okay, I'll chew on that and maybe we'll circle back on it next quarter.

You got it. Thank you.

Our last question comes from Charles Neivert of Piper Sandler. Go ahead, please.

Dealers have had issues in the inventories, not their own, necessarily, but within the chain, and a lot of destocking. And largely, it seems that most of them commented that, that destocking was over with and they could sort of resume a more normal pace of sales. Did you guys run into any major destocking issues over the last few quarters? And if so, have they basically dissipated at this point? Are we done with them? And then going forward, we should see a more regular cadence of sales going forward?

Yes. We observed various trends across different business lines. In the nylon sector, we primarily experienced these trends throughout last year. Most of that value chain seems to be sorted now, and we're currently seeing typical demand signals as expected. In the intermediates sector, the same applies, with the exception of agricultural chemicals. Our materials work in conjunction with other materials, and demand for our products depends on those downstream materials being utilized. However, we believe we are mostly past any destocking issues. In agriculture, our objective is to keep inventories as low as possible by the end of the season, which positions us well for a strong reset in the fall, aligning with our expectations for this year.

That really clears it. And then whatever I missed on the last go-around, the perils of working at home sometimes.

Okay. Well, if there's anything we need to follow...

You guys could come back to me on...

Yes. If there's anything that we need to follow up on, I tried my best to ensure that I tackled all three parts of your question, but I think we might have had some connectivity issues. But if there's anything that we can help to clarify, certainly reach out.

Thank you all again for your time and interest this morning. We hope this call and discussion that clarify the operational and commercial tailwinds that are constructive and supportive to our anticipated rebound in earnings and cash flow performance as we head into the second quarter. We feel very good about the strategies we've implemented and our continued investments to support expectations for AdvanSix's long-term sustainable performance. I am confident this year presents a great opportunity to further maximize our value to shareholders. With that, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Stay safe and be well.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.