Operator
Hello, and welcome to Citi's fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Today's call will be hosted by Jen Landis, Head of Citi Investor Relations. We ask that you please hold all questions until the completion of the formal remarks, at which time you will be given instructions for the question and answer session. Also, as a reminder, this conference is being recorded today. If you have any objections, please disconnect at this time. Ms. Landis, you may begin.
Thank you, Operator. Good morning, and thank you all for joining our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined today by our Chief Executive Officer, James Racer, and our Chief Financial Officer, Mark Nathan. I'd like to remind you that today's presentation, which is available for download on our website, citigroup.com, may contain forward-looking statements which are based on management's current expectations and are subject to uncertainty and changes in circumstances. Actual results may differ materially from these statements due to a variety of factors, including those described in our earnings materials, as well as in our SEC filings. And with that, I'll turn it over to Jane. Thank you, Jen, and good morning to everyone.
This morning, we reported another strong quarter to close out what was a very good year of progress indeed. We got a tremendous amount accomplished in 2025, and I am proud of our team. That said, and we've always been clear about this we are on a multi-year journey and we remain focused on executing our strategy and transformation and I'm excited to update you on our progress in greater detail and to outline the next phase of our journey at our investor day on May the 7th in terms of the quarter excluding the impact of a notable item our adjusted eps was one dollar and 81 cents and our adjusted rotc was 7.7 percent for the full year our returns improved to 8.8 percent a 180 basis point improvement after adjusting for banimix and russia and adjusted net income surpassed 16 billion With adjusted revenues up 7%, we delivered positive operating leverage in every one of our five businesses, as well as the firm overall, for the second straight year. Each business had record revenues and improved their returns by between 250 and 800 basis points. Services continued to deliver, with revenues up 8% and an ROTCE of over 28% for the year. Fee revenue grew by 6% and cross-border transaction value by 10%, as we deepened client relationships and supported them across our global network. security services assets under custody and administration grew 24 as a result of existing client growth and the onboarding of new client assets we continue to innovate to provide our clients with always-on cross-border multi-bank solutions in 2025 we integrated city token services with 24 7 us dollar tiering launched in hong kong and dublin and added euro as a transaction currency we also expanded our industry leading city payments express to 22 markets and it processed 40 percent of tts's payments during the fourth quarter in october we began a journey to a unified custody infrastructure and enabling near real-time asset servicing by launching single event processing all the investments we have made translated to growth and robust market share gains markets delivered record revenues even surpassing our 2020 performance Combined with better capital efficiency, ROTCE increased to 11.6%. Fixed income was up 10%, despite a challenging year for us in commodities. Equity's revenues of $5.7 billion was also a record, with an over 50% increase in prime balances as that business continues to gain share. Banking had a record year, including the best quarter and year for M&A revenues in Citi's history as we gain share in our target sectors as well as in leverage finance and with sponsors resulting in an 11.3% rotce Citi had a role in 15 out of the 25 largest investment banking transactions of the year and advise Boeing, Pfizer, Nippon Steel, Mars, Johnson & Johnson, Blackstone, and TPG. This all drove a 30 basis point year-over-year increase in our investment banking wallet share. Overall, revenues were up 32% whilst keeping expenses flat, showing the discipline we are applying to this business. Wealth delivered another year of strong performance in 2025, including 14% revenue growth, 8% organic NNIA growth, and an ROTCE of over 12%. It's a direct result of the strategy we've executed over the past two years, attracting and retaining industry-leading talent and driving better operating efficiency that's allowed us to invest in key growth areas. And that includes notable partnerships with industry leaders such as BlackRock that have enhanced our open architecture platform and are elevating the client experience. The integration of the retail bank interwealth makes it easier to deepen share with existing clients and unifies our U.S. deposit franchise. usbd's returns more than doubled for the year reaching mid-teens driven by continued product innovation solid customer engagement and our high quality card portfolio branded cards revenue grew eight percent driven by robust engagement from customers in spend borrowing and new account acquisitions across our proprietary offerings and our american airlines and costco partnerships while retail services showed some revenue softness the businesses returns remain solid in terms of capital we repurchased over 13 billion dollars in common shares during the year including 4.5 billion in the fourth quarter as part of our 20 billion dollar plan Increasing our dividend resulted in a total capital return of over $17.5 billion, the most since the pandemic. We entered the year with a CT1 ratio of 13.2%, which is 160 basis points above our regulatory capital requirement, so we have ample capital to support our growth, and we will continue to return excess capital to our shareholders we reached some significant milestones in terms of our simplification as we near the end of our international divestitures we signed an agreement to sell our consumer business in poland and we are receiving final approvals to sell our remaining operations in Russia. And just three months after announcing it, we closed the sale of a 25% stake of Banamex to one of Mexico's most prominent investors. We have made significant progress in terms of our transformation. Over 80% of our programs are now at or nearly at our target state. and while there is more work to do i'm very pleased with how far we've come as evidenced by the occu's removal of article 17 of the consent order in december when combined with how we're deploying ai this bank is being truly transformed in terms of its operational capabilities its controls and its tech infrastructure compared to five years ago But we're also building AI into the processes that move money, manage risk, and serve clients. Colleagues in 84 countries have now interacted with our proprietary tools over 21 million times, and we continue to see adoption increase. It's now above 70%. With much of our transformation behind us, we are shifting our focus to how we can use AI tools and automation to further innovate, re-engineer, and simplify our processes beyond risk and controls to improve client experience whilst reducing expenses. We have started with just over 50 of the largest and most complex processes in the firm, ranging from KYC to loan underwriting. And we're moving with speed to systematically implement modern and efficient solutions. Turning to the macro, the global economy has powered through many shocks over the past few years, creating optimism and confidence that economic growth is poised to continue. With inflation now at normal levels globally, almost every central bank is becoming more accommodating. And while the labor market in the US has softened, capital investment remains strong, especially in tech. And it's the combination of that capex, the health of the consumer, the tax bill benefits and anticipated rate cuts that should be enough to sustain growth. China's relying on exports to grow and compensate for slower domestic consumer demand, and Europe has taken some steps to accelerate its anemic growth, and we're hopeful that Germany can create a meaningful stimulus. We have shown that our strategy can deliver results in different environments. Our corporate clients are in great financial shape and, as you know, are predominantly investment grade in terms of credit quality. We are very well positioned to continue to help them navigate, whether through our balance sheet or expertise developed from being on the ground in almost 100 countries. So, we enter 2026 with visible momentum across the firm. You see it, quarter after quarter, in the business performance, the improvement in our risk and control environment, the investments in innovation, our ability to attract top talent, and the pace of capital return. As I told our people at a town hall in December, this was the year we changed the conversation around city. we are now decidedly on the front foot but we aren't taking any victory laps we are intensely focused on completing our transformation and maintaining our trajectory to deliver the 10 to 11 percent rotc we have spoken to you about as well as another year of positive operating leverage those are our top priorities for this year and we are really looking forward to hosting you for investor day where we will lay out how we will take our strategy forward and our path for improving our returns in a sustainable manner as you'll see we are just getting started in capturing the upside in front of us now before i turn over to mark i want to say a few things about him as you know this is mark's last call as cfo and he has done a fantastic job for us as i know you would all agree he helped guide the bank through the pandemic provided continuity during my transition to ceo and has driven a significant part of the remediation work for the consent orders. Through it all, he has been a level source of strength and wisdom. There are few people as responsible for where City stands today, especially in terms of its financial performance as Mark, and I wanted to take a moment to thank him for all he has done for our firm. Gonzalo has big shoes to fill indeed. And with that, I will turn it over to Mark, and then we will both be happy to take your questions.
Thanks, Jane, and good morning, everyone. I'm gonna start with the firm-wide fourth quarter and full-year financial results, focusing on year-over-year comparisons, unless I indicate otherwise, then review the performance of our businesses in greater detail, and close with our current expectations for 2026. On slide seven, we show financial results for the full firm. This quarter, we reported net income of $2.5 billion, EPS of $1.19, and an ROTCE of 5.1% on $19.9 billion of revenues, generating positive operating leverage for the majority of our five businesses. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the notable item consisting of the impact of the held-for-sale accounting treatment of Citi's remaining operations in Russia, we reported net income of $3.6 billion, EPS of $1.81, and an ROTCE of 7.7 percent. Total revenues were up 2 percent, driven by growth in banking, services, USPB, and wealth, primarily offset by a decline in all other. Adjusted for the Russian notable item, revenues were up 8 percent. Net interest income excluding markets, which you can see on the bottom left side of the slide, was also up 8%, driven by services, USPB, legacy franchises, wealth, and banking, partially offset by a decline in corporate other. Non-interest revenues excluding markets were down 17%. However, adjusted for the Russia notable item, non-interest revenues excluding markets were up 23%, driven by better results in banking and all other partially offset by declines in services, USPB, and wealth. And total markets revenues were down 1%. Expenses of $13.8 billion were up 6%, driven by increases in compensation and benefits, tax charges, legal expenses, as well as technology, partially offset by productivity savings, and lower deposit insurance expenses. Cost of credit was $2.2 billion, primarily consisting of net credit losses in U.S. cards. And for the full year, we generated positive operating leverage for the firm and each of our five businesses with $14.3 billion of net income up 13%, with an ROTCE of 7.7% on a reported basis. And adjusted for the Russian notable item this quarter, as well as the goodwill impairment related to Banamex in the third quarter, we delivered $16.1 billion of net income, up 27% versus the prior year, with an ROTCE of 8.8%. On slide eight, we show the full-year revenue trend by business from 2021 to 2025. This year, we reported revenue of $85.2 billion. Adjusted for the Russian notable item and excluding divestiture-related impacts, revenues of $86.6 billion were up seven percent, our strongest growth in over a decade. With each of our businesses achieving record revenues, 2025 demonstrates another year of our investments in the franchise driving solid top-line growth. And it's worth noting that since 2021, we have generated a compound annual revenue growth rate of four percent on a reported basis, five percent adjusted for the Russian notable item this year and excluding divestiture-related impacts, and 6% excluding legacy franchises, which has declined by over $2 billion over that period. On slide 9, we show the full-year expense trend from 2021 to 2025. This year, we reported expenses of $55.1 billion. Excluding the Banamex goodwill impairment in the third quarter, expenses were $54.4 billion. The increase in reported expenses was driven by higher compensation and benefits, the Banamex goodwill impairment, technology and communication, and transactional and product servicing expenses, partially offset by lower deposit insurance expenses and restructuring charges. As you can see on the bottom right side of the slide, the increase in compensation and benefits was driven by performance-related compensation, higher severance, which totaled approximately $800 million for the year, and investments in technology, with productivity and stranded cost reduction partially offsetting continued investments in the businesses. And as you can see on the bottom left side of the slide, we have been reducing headcount, and we expect that trend to continue. As we take a step back and look at the trajectory of our expense base, over the past five years, we've invested significantly in the transformation and technology to modernize our infrastructure, simplify and automate our processes, and enhance and streamline our data. At the same time, we've incurred restructuring and severance charges to simplify our organizational structure and invested in the businesses to drive top-line revenue growth in a disciplined way. We continue to see the benefits of these investments play through this year with continued productivity saves as well as revenue growth, both contributing to an improvement in our firm-wide efficiency ratio to 63% on an adjusted basis. On slide 10, we show consumer and corporate credit metrics. As I mentioned, the firm's cost of credit was $2.2 billion, primarily consisting of net credit losses in U.S. cards. Our reserves continue to incorporate an eight-quarter weighted average unemployment rate of 5.2 percent, which includes a downside scenario average unemployment rate of nearly 7 percent. At the end of the quarter, we had over $21 billion in total reserves with a reserve-to-funded loan ratio of 2.6 percent. We continue to maintain a high credit quality card portfolio with approximately 85% to consumers with FICO scores of 660 or higher, and a reserve to funded loan ratio in our card portfolio of 7.7%. And it's worth noting that across our U.S. cards portfolios, delinquency and NCL rates continue to perform in line with our expectations. Looking at the right hand side of the slide, you can see that our corporate exposure is primarily investment grade, and in the quarter, corporate non-accrual loans, as well as corporate net credit losses, remained low. We feel good about the high-quality nature of our portfolios, which reflect our risk appetite framework and our focus on using the balance sheet in the context of the overall client relationship. Turning to capital in the balance sheet on slide 11, where I will speak to sequential variance. Our $2.7 trillion balance sheet increased 1% driven by growth in loans, partially offset by a decline in investments. Net end of period loans increased 3% driven by growth in USPB and markets. Our $1.4 trillion deposit base remains well diversified and increased 1% driven by growth in services, partially offset by a decline in corporate other. We reported 115% average LCR and maintained over a trillion dollars of available liquidity resources. We ended the quarter with a preliminary 13.2% standardized CET1 capital ratio, approximately 160 basis points above our 11.6% regulatory capital requirement, which reflects a 3.6% stress capital buffer. As we've said in the past, we remain very focused on the efficient utilization of both standardized and advanced RWA while providing the businesses with the capital needed to pursue accretive returns. And we will continue to prioritize returning capital to shareholders through buybacks as evidenced by the $4.5 billion of buybacks in the fourth quarter and over $13 billion for the year against our $20 billion buyback program. Turning to the businesses on slide 12, we show the results for services in the fourth quarter and full year. Reported revenues were up 15% and 8% adjusted for the Russian notable item driven by growth across both TTS and security services. NII increased 18% primarily driven by higher average deposit balances and deposit spreads. NIR increased 10% on a reported basis and declined 11% adjusted for the Russian notable item, as higher lending revenue share outpaced total fee growth of 13%, which you can see on the bottom left side of the slide. We continue to see strong activity and engagement with corporate and commercial clients and momentum across underlying fee drivers. Cross-border transaction value increased 14%, U.S. dollar clearing volume increased 3%, and assets under custody and administration increased 24%, which includes the impact of market valuation as we continue to deepen with existing clients and onboard new clients and assets. Expenses increased 9%, primarily driven by higher technology expenses, compensation and benefits, as well as volume related expenses. Average loans increased 10% driven by continued demand for trade loans, in particular export agency finance and working capital loans. Average deposits increased 11% with growth across both international and North America, largely driven by an increase in operating deposits. Services delivered net income of $2.2 billion with an ROTCE of 36.1% in the quarter and 28.6% for the full year. Turning to markets on slide 13, revenues were down 1% against the best fourth quarter in a decade last year. Fixed income revenues were down 1% with rates in currencies flat and spread products and other fixed income down 1%. Equities revenues were also down 1% as growth in prime services with balances up more than 50%, which includes the impact of market valuation, as well as derivatives, was more than offset by a decline in cash against a strong fire year quarter. Expenses increased 14%, primarily driven by higher legal expenses, compensation and benefits, technology, and volume-related expenses. Cost of credit was a benefit of $104 million, primarily consisting of a net ACL release, resulting from a refinement of loss assumptions for certain portfolios in spread products. Average loans increased 25%, primarily driven by financing activity in spread products. Markets delivered net income of $783 million with an ROTCE of 6.2% in the quarter and 11.6% for the full year. Turning to banking on slide 14, revenues were up 78% given by growth in corporate lending and investment banking. Investment banking fees increased 35%. percent. M&A was up 84 percent, reflecting a record quarter that closed a record year with momentum across several sectors and continued share gain. DCM was up 19 percent, driven by investment grade and leveraged finance debt, partially offset by lower participation in loans. And while ECM was down 16 percent, driven by lower participation in follow-on, this was partially offset by a continuation of the IPO market recovery supported by favorable market conditions. Corporate lending revenues, excluding mark-to-market on loan hedges, increased significantly, given by an increase in lending revenue share. Expenses increased 10%, given by higher compensation and benefits, which includes recent investments we've made in the business plus the credit was 176 million dollars which included a net acl build driven by changes in portfolio composition including credit quality and exposure growth banking generated positive operating leverage for the eighth consecutive quarter and delivered net income of 685 million dollars with an ROTCE of 13.2 percent in the quarter and 11.3 percent for the full year. Turning to wealth on slide 15, revenues were up seven percent driven by growth in Citi Gold and the private bank, partially offset by a decline in wealth at work. NII, which you can see on the bottom left side of the slide, increased 12 percent, driven by higher deposit spreads and average balances partially offset by lower mortgage spread. NIR decreased 1%. Net new investment asset flows slowed to $7.2 billion in the quarter, consistent with typical seasonality, and we continue to see growth in client investment assets, which were up 14%, including the impact of market valuation, with net new investment assets for the full year representing approximately 8% organic growth. Expenses increased 6%, primarily driven by investments in technology and volume in other revenue-related expenses. End-of-period client balances continued to grow, up 9%. Average loans were up 1% as we continue to grow security-based lending and deploy balance sheets to support clients with a focus on shareholder returns. Average deposits were also up 1% as client transfers from USPB as well as net new deposits were primarily offset by operating outflows and a shift from deposits to higher yielding investment on Citi's platform. Wealth had a pre-tax margin of 21%, generated positive operating leverage for the seventh consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $338 million with an ROTCE of 10.9% in the quarter and 12.1% for the full year. Turning to U.S. personal banking on slide 16, revenues were up 3% given by growth in branded cards and retail banking, partially offset by a decline in retail services. Branded cards revenues increased 5%, driven by higher loan spread, interest earning balances, which were up 4%, and gross interchange fees, largely offset by higher rewards costs, as customer engagement remained robust, with acquisitions up 20% and spend volume up 5%. Retail services revenues were down 7%, primarily driven by lower interest earning balances and lower loan spread. While growth has been impacted by quick traffic and sales at some of our partners, we continue to see strong returns across the retail services portfolio. And retail banking revenues increased 21 percent, given by the impact of higher deposit spread 2 given by higher transactional and marketing expenses to support acquisitions and customer engagement, partially offset by a reduction in other expenses. Cost of credit was $1.7 billion, driven by net credit losses in cards. For the full year, net credit losses in each of our cards portfolios were at or below the low end of our guided ranges, with branded cards at 3.6% and retail services at 5.73%. Reverage deposits increased 2% as net new deposits were primarily offset by the client transfers to wealth that I mentioned earlier. USPB generated positive operating leverage for the 13th consecutive quarter and delivered net income of $845 million with an ROTCE of 14.3% in the quarter and 13.2% for the full year. Turning to slide 17, we show results for all other on a managed basis, which includes corporate other and legacy franchises and excludes the vestiger-related items. Revenues declined across legacy franchises and corporate other. The decline in legacy franchises was driven by the impact of the Russian notable item, as well as the continued reduction of revenue from our exit and wind-down markets, partially offset by growth in Mexico. The decline in corporate other was driven by lower NII due to a lower benefit from cash and securities reinvestment, driven by actions taken over the last few quarters to reduce Citi's asset sensitivity in a declining interest rate environment. Expenses were down 6%, with a decline in legacy franchises, partially offset by growth in corporate other. And cost of credit was $449 million, primarily consisting of net credit losses of $341 million, driven by consumer loans in Mexico. Turning to our current expectations for 2026, starting with net interest income, excluding markets on slide 19. Following solid growth of nearly 6% in 2025, we expect NIIX markets to be up between five and 6% in 2026. As you can see on the left-hand side of the page, we expect most of the increase to come from volume growth and mix, primarily driven by higher loan volumes in cards and wealth, and deposit volumes in services and wealth. And we expect a continued benefit from our investment portfolio, including fixed-rate securities and derivatives rolling into higher-yielding instruments, partially offset by declining U.S. and non-U.S. short-end rates. Overall, we expect the drivers of NIIX markets' growth in 2026 to be consistent with those in 2025. Turning to slide 20, we show our outlook for operating efficiency and the drivers of our expense base in 2026. In terms of expenses, we will continue to invest in our businesses to support continued top line revenue growth and expect higher volume and other revenue-related expenses with capacity generated from productivity savings from our prior investments, reduction of transformation expenses, continued reduction in stranded costs, as well as a lower level of severance versus 2025. We expect our disciplined expense management combined with top line revenue momentum will drive another year of positive operating leverage as we target an efficiency ratio of around 60% for the full year. On slide 21, we show a summary of our expectations for 2026. In addition to our outlook for NIIX markets and efficiency ratio, we expect continued fee momentum across the businesses to drive growth in NIRX markets. In terms of credit, we expect card NCLs to remain within the ranges that we gave for 2025. We will continue to provide the businesses with the capital needed to pursue accretive returns while we optimize our standardized and advanced RWA and capital usage. And we will of course continue to buy back shares against our $20 billion buyback program. Now before we take your questions, I want to say a few words as this is my last earnings call as the CFO of Citi. I've been with Citi for nearly 25 years and I've been the CFO for the last seven. during my career here i've seen city go through many different evolutions and face some very challenging times and i have shown up every day for the last 25 years wearing my one city jersey surrounded by colleagues who have the same mindset i've always believed that what sets city apart is the heart and determination that it takes to drive real change and deliver for all of our stakeholders, our clients, employees, regulators, and of course, our shareholders and analysts. As I said at our 2022 investor day, there was a lot to do. And there were no quick fixes. But we had a clear strategy to set the company up to have a higher quality earnings mix, and higher sustainable returns. And to achieve these financial goals, we were going to do three things. First, invest in our businesses to grow our revenue. Second, become more efficient by investing in the transformation in technology and simplifying our operating model. And third, manage our capital to drive improved returns. And while there is still a lot more work to be done, as I sit here today, I could not be prouder of the progress that we've made as a firm in terms of executing on our transformation and improving the performance of our firm and each of our five businesses. Since Jane took over, she has built a truly impressive team and one that I have been incredibly proud to be part of. I want to thank Jane, my colleagues, and all 226,000 employees for the privilege of serving as your CFO over the last seven years. It has been the most exciting and rewarding time of my career, and it has been an honor to be part of one of Citi's most significant chapters. Looking ahead, I remain fully committed to supporting Jane, Gonzalo, and the broader leadership team as the firm continues its path towards achieving its ROTCE target of 10 to 11% this year, and delivering higher returns over time. I am leaving the role not at the peak for Citi, but on the upswing, with nothing but upside from here. And with that, Jane and I would be
Operator
happy to take your question. At this time, we will open the floor for questions. If you would like to ask a question, please press star five on your telephone keypad. You may remove yourself at any time by pressing star five again. Please note you will be allowed one question and one follow-up question again that is star five to ask a question and we'll pause just a moment okay your first question will come from glenn shore with evercore your line is now open please go ahead hi thank
you and mark you're the best you deserve a sit on the beach for a little while thank you glenn not yet but exhale at some point thank you okay i have a question in markets and i feel like markets is one of the big pieces of the puzzle to get to improved returns. So it could be just one quarter, but I see the flattish revenues in the quarter. You talked about a tough year and year come. Let's more focus on the interesting. PV balance is up around 50%. Allocated capital about the same. Trading assets are up like 23%. Loans are up a bunch. I'm curious on how those things are growing while allocated capital is the same, and yet the ROTC in the quarter is like 6%. So, this is just a couple of things that make my head scratch a little bit, so I just need a little help there.
Yeah, look, I'd point to a couple things. So, first of all, you can see the top-line revenue for the particular momentum over the course of the-
one but on the expense and efficiency slide 20 correct me if I'm wrong I thought was a efficiency ratio below 60% and now it's we're targeting around 60 it's in the grand scheme of the city story I don't think it's a big deal I'm just curious if it changes meant to change yeah or am I reading that wrong
no you really right I think look I think the it's a couple things your last point is well taken as well. In the grand scheme of city, like what are we talking about? But let me make the biggest one ensuring we deliver on the 10 to 11 percent return, right? That means top line momentum. And that investing in the business point is a really important one because Jane is 26 is just a waypoint to ensure we're delivering greater returns in 27, 28 opportunities
to invest beyond. Does that make sense? Yeah, yeah, it makes sense and I appreciate it. Yeah, thanks.
Operator
Your next question will come from Mike Mayo with Wells Fargo. Your line is not open. Please go ahead.
Hi. Jane, if you could elaborate on the new data point that over 80% of your progress with transformation is at the target state or near the target state, what remains? And out of what remains, how much of that relates to safety and soundness? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Mike. Well, while we have some more work to do, let me just say I do feel really good about where we are. As you remember, the audience mainly revolved around four areas, so compliance, risk, controls, and data. And we're operating at almost at our target states. These are the city-defined ones for compliance, risk, and controls. And in data, we've significantly accelerated progress over the past year and some of that's really been helped by AI as well and we're seeing this translate quickly into both outcomes and that's including the detailed accuracy of our most critical regulatory reports and in the modernization of our underlying data so we're focused on completing the work and we have a finely tuned execution machine that's delivering on time and at the appropriate quality. I am highly confident in our ability to get the remaining work done. I think we all took it as a positive sign that our regulators are also seeing demonstrable improvement in city safety and soundness, and that's publicly evidenced by the OCC's termination of the July 24 amendment. The timing's up to the regulators, and as it were, we need to get comfortable that the works deliver the desired outcomes, it needs to get validated by an independent audit function, and then the regulators go through their assessment and closure process. That all takes time, but from the shareholder perspective, you see the benefits of the investments we've made in our transformation. They're becoming more efficient, as you can see, on the back of many of these investments. We're far better controlled, and as we complete each body of work, we're beginning to bring our expenses down and to mark's point earlier that creates the capacity for additional investments in 2020 mind share for growth and innovation and correct me if i'm wrong i think you were at
the end stage for risk and compliance but now you're saying it controls you're you're mostly there so that that's new so you're really left with regulatory data which and again correct me to me that sounds like regulatory box checking the sort of thing regulators have talked about they're de-emphasizing. So, if you've addressed the substance and what remains has nothing to do with regulatory box, anything to do with safety and soundness or customers or anything like that, I don't know why the regulators would still have the consent order on after six years. So, I guess, are you the bottleneck in the process then? You just have to kind of validate what you've done in internal audit and then turn it over to the regulators? If that's the case, how long does it take you to validate your internal progress?
Yeah, I wouldn't go quite as far as you've jumped to. We still do have some work to do, and we're very focused around it, and we're making good accelerated progress with it. But yes, we have to get the work done, validate it, and then hand it over to the regulators and the process we talked about. So, all of those things have to happen, and I'm confident that we'll get there in good
And one little attempt, when you hand it over to the regulators, are we talking months, years? What are you thinking?
That's up to them. They have to answer that one. That very much lies in their hands.
Operator
Your next question will come from Abraham Punawalla with Bank of America.
Good morning. I think maybe two questions. One, Jane, just following up beyond the regulatory piece, what would you say, I think one of the concerns investors have is Citi was behind the curve in terms of franchise investments, you've done a tremendous job over the last five years, how would you respond to that there is a gap between Citi and best-in-class peers when we think about investment banking, in capital markets, et cetera, how would you size that gap, and what is needed, and how long to narrow that gap, or if in fact eliminate that?
So you're right, over the past five years, not only have we been investing in technology and the transformation, but also in innovations and making sure that we are positioned to drive our growth and our returns and our competitive position. In terms of services, we are the leading firm in a number one position. We've been building out digital asset capabilities, we've been expanding product innovations as you've heard us talk about, payments expressed, real-time liquidity, and other always-on digital solutions. And we're investing in scaling our security services platform and broadening capabilities there. And you saw the huge growth in the assets under capacity and management this year that we've achieved as a result. The service is in a very strong position. Markets where we've been investing as we continue filling product capability gaps, we're improving capacity, we're reducing latency, increasing resiliency to support the 11% growth that you saw this year, and in particular areas like Prime, which had huge growth of 50%. But we're always looking at where are the new capabilities that can get added on in FX and equities, spread products, rates across the board. Now in banking, you saw our prior talent investments driving share gains. So it's a focus. And we're going to continue to bring in top talent we have, notably in North America. Three tool-linky areas of investment product platform with the open architecture as the key operating principle. So you've seen us retool the research product. We've been investing in deploying new AI-powered capabilities to drive continued momentum in client investment assets and investment-free revenues. And then finally, in cards, we're driving engagement and growth with new innovative products. Our commerce platform launches, actually cards, we can broaden out our marquee partner relationships. We're in a very good place. You know, be the leading player. all of the businesses that we're engaged in a year-by-year basis. So that's the mindset we have if that helps you. And you can see.
That's helpful. And maybe, Mark, one for you. Appreciate you're moving away from revenue guidance, but maybe help us fill in the blanks a little bit around when we think about fee growth, maybe there's about 6% X markets when we look at 2025. Just how we should think about pre-revenue growth embedded in your expectations around that 60% efficiency ratio and any color on markets and AI of at least what the puts and takes should be in terms of delta versus the 10 billion-ish that we saw in 2025.
Yeah, sure. So first, what that looks like, but we also expect continued share gains against that. And as Jane mentioned, we've been investing in momentum.
Thank you, Mark. and all the best, and with the next adventure. Bye.
Operator
Next question will come from Betsy Grasick with Morgan Stanley. Hi, good morning.
Good morning. Hi, good morning, Betsy.
So, Mark, I had a question for you on the NII outlook. You know, coming into this print, I think you were looking for a slowdown in NII growth from 2025, levels of 5.5%, but you actually increased the NII outlook to 5% to 6%. And I know you mentioned also that you took some actions to reduce asset sensitivity. So maybe we could wrap this all up into what drove that better NII outlook.
Yeah, you know, look, it was the NII guidance that we gave last year, we came in a lot better, you know, than that in 2025. And that was in part due to that I've given for 2020.
Asset sensitivity, did that play into this at all, or what actions did you take?
Well, you know, we took some, you can look at our IRE analysis, and if you look at it pretty, you know, in that.
Thank you so much, Mark, and congratulations for me as well, and enjoy your 2026 into 27.
Thank you so much, Betsy.
Operator
Your next question will come from Jim Mitchell with Seaport Global.
Good morning, Jim. Good morning. And, Mark, I think everyone appreciates your efforts over the years, so, you know, definitely good luck with your new next chapter.
Thank you, Jim. Appreciate that.
Yeah, you're welcome. Just maybe on the capital return side, you're 150 BIPs above your minimum CET1. I guess, number one, are you still targeting a buffer around 100 BIPs? And if so, you know, how quickly are you looking to get there? Just trying to get a sense of the pace of buybacks from here over the next few quarters in the year.
Yeah, no, thanks for the question. We are, as you say, about 160 basis points above. We are still targeting 100 basis point management buffer, thus getting closer to a 12.6, as I think I said in my poll.
And just maybe on just the deposit growth and services, it has been very strong. It sounds like you're pretty confident in the outlook there. Can you maybe kind of just dive into a little bit more on the drivers and why you think
that should be sustainable going forward sure and and look i think the team has done a really really good job uh in in tts you know in security ensuring that our client your next question
Operator
will come from erica nazarian with ubs hi um thank you for taking my question i didn't plan
to ask this question but this literally just hit the bloomberg um built just unveiled credit cards capped at 10% and it will maintain those rates for a year and it'll be applicable only to new purchases obviously a tiny player but I'm just wondering obviously we all know the many reasons why this shouldn't be capped in perpetuity including really curtailing credit to those that need it the most but is this going to be the end game you think Jane in terms of these demands and sort of the push for affordability I know this is all new but yeah happy to
happy to tap in there Erica look and start with we have flawed the president's focus on affordability everyone agrees that many for many Americans are oppressing concerns and escalating costs that require immediate attention and we're always interested in collaborating with the administration to put in place more effective solutions that are going to foster the expansion of accessible and affordable credit to those who need it most and today we provide our card customers with lower cost products think of the no fee simplicity card or our balance of transfer offers and i'd also note we were the only big bank to eliminate overdraft fees amongst other measures and we're very proud of our role is the leading financier of affordable housing in the country for the past 15 years when you look at the bigger picture. But to your point, a rate cap is not something that we can support. I think the reception from the Hill also seemed less than enthusiastic from what we could tell. And just to be clear, the impact to us and other banks would just be dwarfed by the severe impact on access to consumer spending across the country these things just don't work out as intended and think back when the Carter administration put credit controls in place to reduce costs the impact was so severe they were very swiftly rescinded within two months two pieces of data the context US consumers spend on their credit cards every year and outstanding US credit card balances are over $1.2 trillion. They grow about $80 billion a year, and there's over $4 trillion in untapped capacity at risk. So, if you make these products unprofitable, that spending will be drastically reduced, and that's Britain, as other countries have experienced when they've tried this, and also the studies in the U.S. have shown a vast majority of consumers and businesses would lose access to credit cards they'd be forced to pursue more predatory alternatives and you'd only be left with the wealthy having access to credit cards and nobody wants that and we'd also see some of the domino effects ricocheting through retail travel hospitality sectors much broader impact on gdp engage on how we can expand very clear um thank you jane and my
My real question, and I'm going to try to smush it into one, you know, you talked about the progress in the consent order amendment getting lifted, and Jane, you talked earlier about, you know, as you, you know, hit your end state, your target end state expenses come off, you know, as we think about the entirety of the consent order lifting, is it a gradual, you know, expense savings, or is there sort of, you know, a giant chunk that could be reinvested? And the sort of follow-up question is just on EB's question on Markets NII. Mark, I know that your Markets NII is probably less volatile than that of your peers, and I know you want us to think of markets more broadly. But I'm just wondering, as we sort of, you know, square your markets, sorry, your NIIX Markets Guide with consensus, is it prudent to, as a placeholder, you know, put in what you earned in 2025 into 2026 in terms of markets nii but perhaps with upward bias yes
so you stuck in a few different questions there erica sorry let me just quickly touch on um what does it mean for our um yeah what does it mean as we get different bodies of work i think different from some others and we begin to see the benefits of the investment we've made and we begin and we become more efficient on the back of the investment but as we complete each body of work we begin to bring the expenses down related to that and that's what creates the additional investment capacity and will help us drive returns so it's not as if it's a cliff at the end of the consent order you're beginning to see us doing this as we get work completed bringing that expense down and then redeploying that either to the bottom line and as well as to the investments that we need for growth. Just before I turn to Mark, just in terms of long-term return trajectory, because I think we haven't talked as much about it and we're looking forward to doing so to invest today, but when we're looking at our longer-term performance, there's really going to be three drivers of higher returns the revenue growth the expense efficiencies and our rwa and capital efficiency on the revenue side you've seen us and we're very proud of this you've really seen us steadily grow revenues over the past few years 2025 is the condition of continuation of that and that will continue going forward services will grow with new and existing clients, including the opportunity Mark just talked about with commercial clients, as well as further product innovations that opens up whole new revenue streams, as we've seen in e-commerce. Markets continue to grow in prime, where you've seen very high growth from us, the second leg to our derivative capability, as well as high return opportunities in financing and securitization that's now over 70% of our spread product business, and will continue filling in some of the areas that we've got with different client bases and others to continue driving growth. And I would note that we now have four $5 billion businesses or over $5 billion in markets as opposed to the four $4 billion ones we've talked about. Banking, you saw the proof of the pudding this quarter, gaining a fuller share of our clients' wallets and just systematically building out the areas we've had gaps and driving our productivity. Worth is about scaling up investment penetration with existing and new clients, and also the value that we can see from the integration with US retail. Cards continue growing proprietary products and platform innovations. We have the American Airlines renewal we're really excited about for next year, and all the different expansion of the offering there. and momentum in co-brand offerings, as Mark referred to in his introductory remarks, and then a lot of synergies between the businesses. Mark talked about where the expense efficiencies will come from in the second leg, the benefits of the investments in our transformation and the technology that we've been doing, as well as the increased productivity, the stranded cost removal, et cetera. He's run through where you'll continue to see the expense efficiencies coming through whilst we also make the long-term investments and then I'm very proud of our business leaders they've been really unrelenting in the optimization of resources in our WA and capital and we're hoping to see some reductions in our capital requirements as we saw with the SDB results going forward so there's a lot of potential both for the continued revenue growth for durable return improvement in the years ahead and you'll obviously get a lot more detail at Investor Day, but I think it's important to put this in the context of the long-term where we're headed rather than just the nitty-gritty of the…
All five of these business revenues, you can assume that market's revenues will be…
Good luck for your next adventure, and hopefully you don't spend too much time at the beach before we see you at another leadership role at another financial institution.
Oh, you're going to see him as invested. Okay, fine, fine.
Operator
Questions will come from John McDonald with Truist.
Hi, yeah, thanks. Just to follow up on the last thing, maybe just summarize it on the efficiency journey. Fair to say that both you have plenty of expense flex to deliver the efficiency improvement to 60 this year, and also that the 60 is a waypoint itself, it's not the destination for efficiency ratios. Are both of those fair?
Yeah, look, the way I think about it, yes, we have flex, is the bottom line. So, if revenues come in, come in softer.
...ability to do both. I talked a little bit about what we're doing with our over 50 processes in the prepared remarks. That will be driving new sources of efficiency that three, four years ago we couldn't have imagined. and we see that ability then to bring the efficiency down and drive our returns up and grow the franchise going forward. You're hearing the confidence from us to be able to do that and frankly, they're excited.
Okay, thank you. And then one quick follow-up. Mark, could you give a little more color on the outlook for the CARD NCLs? The range is the same, which implies a little bit higher losses than the actual 2025. Maybe by keeping the ranges, or is there anything in the delinquency roll rates that you're seeing?
Yeah, look, there's, to answer your question with the latter part of it, as we look at delinquencies, we're not seeing anything unexpected, either of the, even when we cut different FICL scores and income brackets and the like. And so, are there things out there that could have an impact, you know, over the course of the next year? Does the range give us...
Operator
Your next question will come from Ken Cassidy with RBC. I'm sorry, Ken Houston with Autonomous Research.
Thanks, just one for me. I know we're going long here. Mark, the services deposits last year were just really strong and I'm just wondering if you could tie that into just the broader macroeconomy and rates and are you continuing to still expect that that part of the business can still generate that level of deposit growth?
Operator
Your next question will come from Gerard Cassidy with RBC.
Thank you. Hi, Mark. You're leaving big shoes to fill, so good luck in your future endeavors.
Thank you so much, Gerard.
You guys have done a good job moving the ball down the field and divesting your presence in Mexico. You talked about it today. Can you share with us where we are in terms of – I know market conditions will play a factor once you get all the regulatory approvals to do the IPO. Can you share with us where we are on the regulatory part? And then second, will you guys give us the announcement that all the regulatory approvals are in and now it's just market conditions, you've got the green light and you're going to wait until...
...parties involved with the accelerated closing of the sale of the 25% stake to Fernando Chico Pardo. And the Mexican president and HUD government have been publicly and privately very supportive of both our path forward with the record closing of that nine to 12 months to do. So, we're very, by several factors, that includes market conditions with the ultimate goal of maximizing value for shareholders. But that 25% stake that we've just closed is much bigger if we had IPO'd. And so I think they're going from there.
And then just a real quick follow-up. Mark, you talked about markets, talked about equities, the strong comparison to a year ago, how prime balances were up nicely this quarter. But in the cash equities business, what was the weakness there? I know you identified it, but what was it inside cash equities?
again i think it was it was more of a year over year you know comparison we had a really strong you know fourth quarter um you know in uh in equities you know last year and that was a big
driver yeah we had a very bigger we had a couple of very big alpha trades um and so if you strip that out um it looks much more in line with with what you would expect yep okay thank you problem if you have a great fourth quarter, it comes back and bites you.
Operator
Your next question will come from Saul Martinez with HSBC.
Hi, thanks for taking my question. I just have one, and I'll show you some love as well, Mark, so best of luck, and we will miss you on these calls. Thank you, Saul. The wealth business, net interest NIR was down 1%. I know that that was, you know, that reflected the sell of a trust business, but off leverage, you know, was minimal. The EBIT margin was pretty much the same as last year. And the net new assets still good, but a little bit softer. I'm just, you know, just curious how you're thinking about the progress there, your level of confidence that you're on track to continue to drive higher off leverage. And if you could just remind us what the, you know, what the end goal is for off leverage, for ease of margin, I should say, and over what timeframe do you expect to get there?
Yeah, let me kick off and I'll pass this down back to Mark. Look, we had a good quarter in wealth. It was capped off a year of real continued improvement. Revenues are up 14%. The rot seizes over 12%. We grew client investment assets 14% on the back of 8% organic growth. So a lot to like there. What's the strategy and the direction that Andy is taking this, right, is to be the lead investment advisor for our clients has been a lot of our focus. So we've been attracting, retaining industry leading talent, strengthening the CIO research product with Kate Moore doing a fabulous job there, a lot of retooling of key components for the investment product platform, and some impressive differentiators with industry leaders like BlackRock we're going to have a we have a really superb open architecture platform and a far better client experience and all of this is helping us drive and accelerate growth in investment fee revenues over the next few years that's the famous five trillion of us opportunity three trillion of that is with clients in our US retail and city gold business which is why the integration the retail bank makes so much sense but we're clear there's still more work to be done there's room to grow profitability and revenues from here and you know andy's going to lay out the path at investor day so you have the clear sets of kpis and the different elements that are needed to continue to drive that growth forward but we remain committed and we see the path to improving the returns for of the overall business to above 20 in the long run mark what else would
you add? The only thing I'd add, and I do think, as you've pointed out, Jane, we are seeing wealth of our retail banking footprint, you know, the medium term. Thanks so much. Your final question
Operator
will come from Chris McGrady with KBW. Chris, we're leaving the best till last. No pressure.
Thanks, Jane. Related to Investor Day, I'm interested, when the manager team is getting together in the room and discussing the communication of the new targets does the level of profitability or the timing to which you get there carry more weight i ask because the market seemingly wants a little bit higher and sooner but i'm also sensitive to the bar you set
and and growing into the targets thank you yeah i would i would say both are important yeah right i mean look clearly 10 to 11 is is not sufficient um it shows demonstrative progress since the last investor day but we're clear-minded that you know when we're creating value we're doing so with returns that are well above our cost of equity and so you know being able to to grow the return though if you know anything about Jane you know the sense of urgency and kind of making things happen quickly so you know without committing in any way I would look we
want to have our cake eaten what can I say thank you very much indeed
Operator
there are no further questions I will turn the call over to Jen Landis for
closing remarks you for joining the call but before we wrap up I just wanted to briefly echo what mark shared earlier about city and thank him for his leadership as the CFO of city long-term value creation has set a very high standard for city and I personally want to thank mark for his mentorship and guidance over the years but thank you and thank you all for joining and I'm I'm sure I will talk to you this afternoon.
Operator
This concludes the city fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. You may now disconnect.