good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to cf industries first quarter of 2026 all participants will be in listenerly mode should you need assistance please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero we will facilitate a question and answer session towards the end of the presentation to pose a question at any time please press star then one on your touchtone phone i would now like to turn the presentation Over to the host for today, Mr. Martin Jarvisik with CF Investor Relations, sir. Sir, please proceed.

Thanks for joining the CF in which we generated adjusted EBITDA of $983 million.

These results reflect a continued focus and disciplined execution by our team. At the end of the incidents, her 200,000 hours worked. This is a direct result of commercial, logistics, and distribution teams ensured we met customers leading into the North American spring application. The performance in the quarter also reflected the tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance that carried into 2020. In the quarter, the conflict with Iran severely tightened the global nitrogen market. Nitrogen and global trade flows will require time. In addition, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt nitrogen production. recent geopolitical disruption, our global industry's risk return by low natural gas costs alone from the Middle East and the first quartiles over decades to build the leading nitrogen manufacturing and distribution network. As low cost, this is in approximately 50 quartile capacity. The geopolitical will be an enduring structural headwind, increasing the cost of capital and adding cost to the nitrogen industry. In the Middle East, to offset geopolitical risks of global nitrogen market environment.

The global nitrogen supply demand balance has for more than a year. Global nitrogen demand has been robust. At the same time, supply has been constrained by geopolitical conflicts, elevated natural gas prices, and declining natural gas availability in several key producing regions, and the closure of the strain supply shock into this already tight market. of urea and ammonia from the region have been severely limited, removing a meaningful portion of low-cost supply during peak nitrogen season. Producers that use imported LNG for nitrogen production have curtailed or shut down facilities due to fuel availability issues. These dynamics have subsistence, which includes retailers, planting season since July of 2025. Based on what we see today, applications, appears well covered. We continue to work with our customers to meet the last layers of demand for this season. This includes leveraging our manufacturing, logistics, and distribution capabilities to increase nitrogen availability, additional tons of urea for the Yazoo City Rail assets to move urea from Donaldsonville into the Corn Belt and to ship ammonia from Medicine HAT Canada into our U.S. distribution. We need to evaluate all our operations and distribution channels through the end of the season. While CF Industries has flexibility to support our customers, globally, there are not many options to overcome a supply disruption of this magnitude. Indeed, focused on ensuring their domestic agriculture reports of nitrogen largely restricted to begin later, systems are unlikely to fully remove. Egypt moved to apply a 90 dollar per metric ton duty in supply constraints there will be intense competition for available supply we expect india which entered 2026 with low inventories giving urea volumes not delivered under will be substantial in 2026 potentially rising to 10 to 12 million metric toxin only 10 to 30 percent higher than 2025 and nearly double their 2024 met demand in certain parts of East Asia, our irrigation volume per acre will decline. Even with some incremental supply later in the year, we expect global nitrogen markets to remain tight through 2020-26 and into 2027. We also expect further structural tightening through the end of the decade as new nitrogen capacity under construction today falls short of the traditional nitrogen

demand growth rate. With that, let me turn it over to Rick. For the first quarter of 2026, the company reported net earnings attributable to common stockholders of approximately $615 million, or $3.98 per diluted share. EBITDA was approximately $1 billion, and adjusted EBITDA was $983 million. These results reflect a gain of approximately $170 million from a previously disclosed litigation settlement with Orica and Nelson Brothers. We recorded the gain in the first quarter and received the proceeds in April. As a result, it will be reflected in our cash flow state. 12-month net cash from operations was approximately $2.7 billion, and free cash flow was approximately $1.65 billion. We continue to efficiently convert EBITDA to free cash flow at industry-leading margins, positioning the company well to continue to invest in accretive growth for 2026 remains approximately $1.3 billion on a consolidated basis. CF Industries portion of this is approximately $950 million, which includes $550 million versus $400 million relating to both the Blue Point Joint Venture and the Blue Point Common Infrastructure. The Point Ammonia plant is expected to commence this year, once applicable permits have been received. We continue to be pleased by the progress that has been made on this high-return project that will add over 1.5 million tons of gross ammonia capacity. It begins operation 1,000 shares of our common stock for $15 million in the first quarter. We expect to continue to be opportunistic and disciplined as we execute the remainder of our current share repurchase program. With that, Chris will provide some closing remarks before we open the call to Q&A.

I want to thank CF Industries employees for their commitment and dedication during the first quarter as we engaged with our three dynamics of all this is well-positioned for the near, medium, and long-term. Industry-leading free capabilities today and additional opportunities within our existing for the future to grow our production base continue to create substantial value for long-term shareholders. As a result, advantages and growing global backdrop represents the third demand shock to the global nitrogen market and has exposed the fragile nature of the global nitrogen supply chain. This fragility does not include feedstock assets such as LNG and logistical assets such as shipping. Our global industry operates. We see distinct value in superior assets and the predictability. With that, operator will open the call.

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you will press star 10-1 on your touchstone phone. The first question comes from Christian Oven with Oppenheimer.

Good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I actually wanted to start out with this sort of CF premium idea and sort of phrase a longer-term position here where, you know, if we're in the scenario of higher for longer, sustained energy arbitrage advantage in the U.S., like how are you thinking about the calculus now on your blue point economics, you know, as you think about the export opportunity and just given the excess cash generation, how that all factors together into those unit economics for that new

capacity? Thank you. Yeah, thanks, Kristen, and good morning. Related to really the structural changes that are happening around your differential that you're talking, decisions, and almost to the point of being conservative. But I think what we're seeing here, as we talked about, is a structure of how the world views low cost. And low cost isn't just low cost feedstock like what we have. Operational efficiency. So what we see in place there is just an increased return profile to shedding a light on being very intentional where we build and expand our assets inputs, but allow us to be able to move product throughout the world, whether it be export or up into the

midwestward. The premium, we're seeing that today in the market. Ammonia and upgraded products in Donaldsonville and then the future Bluepoint, which will be 95% or more decarbonized. We're seeding the market today, building to the receptivity. Thank you. The next question comes

from Mike Cison with Wells Fargo. Hey, good morning. Thank you. In terms of the, you mentioned

that in 2007, you felt supply demand would remain pretty tight for nitrogen. And, you know, when you think about the conflict here and the damage that is occurring in the Middle East, I mean, how tight do you think it'll be? Do you think nitrogen and the prevailing products will stay above the average? And just kind of a feel for kind of longevity of this elevated pricing.

Thank you. Related to it, even if we are able to see the straight open up and begin to see product flow move through there, as you mentioned, there's a lot of damaged assets that will have to be assessed. The vessel movement itself is going to take a significant amount of time. It would be 30 to 40 days, but then you can add something to that to get those assets back. And then these assets that we're seeing is probably some longer lasting where there'll be some increased costs related to inflation, risk premiums, even vessel insurance as we go forward, buying thesis where what we've been saying over the years has only been strengthened more of urea costs increased during that time frame. I'll let Bert talk about maybe the 2027 S&D balance side.

efficiently and effectively to all parts of the world and bid a common number. Vessels, you've got this ratio for due to lack of L.A. India, Pakistan, the sun that import that. So I see the number. Mike, does that answer your question?

The next question comes from Joel Jackson with BMO Capital Markets.

Good morning. Maybe, Bert, you could apply. We're seeing as we get into the end of the spring season here some interesting behavior in domestic nitrogen markets, Urea markets to be specific. I mean, we've seen NOLA come down a fair bit. Seasonality, there's also what's going on in the Middle East. Also, some commentary that the import into the U.S. in Q1 was stronger than many people thought. Maybe you can give your opinions on the bifurcation we're seeing in U.S. nitrogen prices versus offshore pricing, seasonality, and the strength

of import into the U.S. Well, and it is an interesting dynamic in that the U.S. is the plus or minus $600 per shift, a metric ton, $100 per metric ton. So a gigantic differential. And I think 2025 through Q1 of 2020 has shipped and is in place for the retail sector. It's happening on that retail and co-op that's going to take place. And then for second and third applications, you're going to see those retailers coming back to us to buy. And so then it's as we come out of this into Q3 market.

Thank you. The next question comes from Vincent Andrews with Morgan Stanley.

Thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask on the buyback in the quarter. It was $15 million. Were you buying throughout the quarter? Were you locked up in some way? And if you weren't, how should we think about buybacks for the rest of the year? Is there a share price level now that you're more comfortable in versus others? Or just any update would be great.

Yeah, so maybe I'll start with the back end of that question, that we continue to be a buyer of our shares. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, we think they're not only what's happened just recently, but what has been more value related to the consistent free cash flow. So we have $1.7 billion remiss share repurchase, and our intention is to execute that. In Q1 here, we generally go about and we set a grid in place. So we had a grid in place that we ended up keeping in place. And then the conflict indication on what we see as the value of our $1 billion open, our intention is that we're going to execute that before the expiration.

Thank you. The next question comes from Ben Thurer with Baklis.

Hi, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just two quick ones kind of like related here. So one thing you've talked about, the China restrictions on the export side, Egypt, et cetera. So I just want to understand with those markets putting in more of the export restrictions here or incremental duties, what does that do in terms of like just the pricing globally in your view and the benefits that you might have, particularly in the North American market? And then just as a follow-up, you mentioned on the shutdown of some of the facilities that might not be damaged. How long, remind us, how long does it take to run something up again, assuming conflict ends tomorrow and we can basically be back online? How long would it take for some of those nitrogen facilities to be properly operational back online?

Okay, Ben, this is Bert, and I'll get the market and what's going on. It is an interesting national making to restrict supply for theirs. And so last year in 2025, about 5 million tons came out of China. We need all of that and more to balance the world's supply. And I don't think that either damage, destroyer, maybe June restrictions or costs, and suboptimally 50% are driving that additional import need to meet their demands. So a tight market pricing today, as we mentioned, in the year, 50 per metric ton. As we look to the back half of the year, I think the global market's expecting some price moderation.

I just can't give you an estimate today. You know, getting the equipment, if these were, you know, as we understand, shut down, put down, you're looking at one to three months depending on what type of maintenance was being performed during that particular. have to do on some of the parts that would be required to a one- to three-month time frame. But in addition, a lot of these particular plants had loaded inventory. Before they shut down, they had loaded up their inventory. And when you're looking at that vessel movement that we talked about earlier, you could be months away with that inventory and really bring up that production as well. So I think there's a lot of different components here, and that's why there's going to be a much longer tail and knock-on effects, some of which we don't even know right now, in order to get the entire flits and numbers behind what's shut down.

The test made it at 31 ammonia plants directly impacted, 49 plants in India, Pakistan, at least 20 to 21 plants. So the impact is...

Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Chris Parkinson with Wolf Research.

Got it. Thank you so much. I think we could all debate the degree of the windfall of free capital you're going to have, presumably by year end. And, you know, we could all debate even further into 27, 28. And then you have the Secretary of Treasury and the Secretary of Agriculture pleading for new capacity. And on top of that, you have, by my count, up to seven, probably at least six or seven other either blue or gray nitrogen facilities either canceled or suspended indefinitely. When you think about those three factors in the intermediate to longer term, how are you thinking about blue point number two? Is there anything else that you think, you know, the industry should be doing to work with the in terms of U.S. policymakers? I'd love to hear your perspectives.

Yeah. So, Chris, I think you've characterized it well. What we've been talking about really for the last couple of years that the market was already tight, as Bert said, coming into 2026. and now having some of these fundamental additional costs, how things are being reviewed. We needed new capacity before. We're probably going to need even more right now. I think there is going to be an increase. It makes our decision to move forward with Bluepoint look even better. As I said on the first question here, we're probably going to see higher return profile than what we thought. And we continually, because this has been our view for a while, look at production expansion. I think there's still some things we want to get a better understanding at blue point number one before we would move into blue point number two. But, you know, whatever the decision that's going to be made, again, I think you've worked with us long enough that it's a decision. Now, that being said, the amount of cash flow, just given our efficiency in converting that cash flow, is going to be significant over the next several years. And I think we see opportunities, whether it be within our network or else margins or increase our production on a very –

And just a quick follow-up for either you or Bert. You know, obviously there's a lot of things moving in terms of when we would generally think about, you know, summer fill prices. Do you have, in terms of international dynamics versus domestic, assurity of supply, you know, the balance between your re-availability versus perhaps UAN, are you thinking about things presumably a little bit differently this year? Or, you know, how should we think about that?

Yeah, that's a question we ask ourselves pretty much every day. And the team looks at that. And every year has been different communication with our customers. And I've got to give Mike Ham and his team a lot of credit from last year communicating openly and ahead of time on the date we were going to launch, giving our customer friends time to prepare things in place. We're looking to replicate that in terms of thematics. Now, it does get to, though, internally, what is the best use of the molecule? So the nitrogen molecules that work through the system, from ammonia to urea to UAN to ammonium nitrate to DEF or any inventory system, what these look like, and then we make judgments with the team and leadership on moving forward.

Thank you.

The next question comes from Edlin Rodriguez with Mizuho.

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. As nitrogen prices have moved up higher, what do you think farmers can or will do to lower the fertilizer cost basket? And related to that, in a typical year, like how much of the nitrogen needs do farmers prepay for, like, earlier in the year?

Yeah, Link, very good question, and especially the environment, the corn. And that's why I mentioned in my prepared remarks the impacts to some occasions planted in January and February, Argentina or something like that, supply and demand get, or more demand gets, is the one nutrient that you really can't skip on. And this is a year, I think, for North America. We're talking with our retail and co-op who are dealing. And when you're looking at the opportunity of corn so you can increase yield with the yield opportunity that's of applications, and you can apply ammonia in the fall, that, to me, communicates if they bought low-cost 2025 of, I think.

The next question comes from Lucas Beaumont with UBS.

Thanks. Good morning. Yeah, I just wanted to follow up on how you're kind of seeing the outlook for nitrogen pricing as we kind of move through the next couple of quarters. So, I mean, there's been no improvement yet in terms of trade flows. And then we have a significant portion of global production offline. But as we sort of get past the peak northern hemisphere demand period, however, there's probably likely to be less incentive for people to, I guess, restock during the year than what you would kind of see normally. I mean, offsetting that, you know, Brazil demand will kind of pick up for the third quarter with imports. And, you know, we have shortages in sort of the other importing regions globally, coupled with just how the normal sort of seasonal factors would play out. So I guess, could you just help us understand how do you sort of see the interplay of those factors there together and sort of what you think is going to happen kind of sequentially as we move forward over the next few months?

Yeah, Lucas, we're still, this is Bird, and at CF we're focused on supplying our North American customers to make sure we make it through spring applications with adequate supply and communicating daily. But the outlook for Q4 is, and I can't give an exact, in terms of what is going to come back and when it comes back from the Middle Eastern suppliers, that's 30% of global urea, but it's 20% of LNG. And so there are a lot of nitrogen that are dependent upon to lose some of that capacitated market. So on a monthly basis, you have a million and a half to two million tons not available. To be conservative, maybe five million tons. So you need all of China to come out aggressively. And then you go to the importing countries, like we mentioned, which is imported between, let's say, six to nine million tons over the last several years. We're expecting them to be 10 to 13 million tons because of the low operating rate of their import dependent plants. South America, I don't see their import needs changing or going down. And so immediate needs normal for long stock can be done in time without severe disruptions as in. That's why we're very confident how this pushes into 2027 and kind of the regionalism of energy

in general? And are these countries going to want to export what they have exported historically to even fill some of those gaps that are already tight? So, this is something where we see allowing us to provide probably or generate significant free cash flow even during that

particular year. Thank you. The next question comes from Andrew Wong, RBC Capital.

Hey, good morning. I just wanted to ask about your expansion plans. Just given elevated nitrogen prices, both now and into the future, plus the tightness in feedstock, like you mentioned, and obviously the competitive advantage in North America and the better return profile for North American nitrogen, does that change how you think about expansion plans? Could you accelerate and add more capacity?

Well, it's, you know, thank you, Andrew, for the question. It's something that we review consistently around the organization, and we have, we're looking at that above what is with Bluepoint. But I think, you know, what we're looking at right now is just seeing higher return profiles than what we expect, continuing to evaluate what we would do at the site, the Bluepoint site. It is a site that we can expand on over time, but I think there's certain answers that we want on the first unit before we have moved forward. One is to get the permitting through, given the infrastructure would already be in place, that being the dock imminent at this particular we've generated these next several years. We're going to be extremely, how we evaluate them. And then in addition to that, I think what we have on the table to generate that will return in the form of either share repurchases or dividends to our shareholders.

That's great. Thank you very much.

The next question comes from Jeff Zikowskis, J.P. Morgan.

Thanks very much. If I can ask you a speculative question, given the confusion over CBAM and of carbon dioxide emissions generally, and given the shortages in the nitrogen markets, Do you expect new plants in the United States to be steam methane reformers again rather than autothermal reactors, or is it too difficult to tell?

Well, I think the confusion over CBAM may be a little overstated, and I think if you've been following what the European Commission and European Parliament, there really hasn't been any change, of course. If anything, I would say it's almost got that CBAM is going to remain in place. We view the decarbonization, I can really only speak for ourselves, as providing incremental opportunity that doesn't exist to others. I think if you look at what we've done, the shipments we're making at a premium into Europe, and then, you know, our recent announcement with Pepsi and other CPG companies that we're looking at working with, So we can, you know, we look at decarbonization as creating value and see the value in doing it autothermal to recover as much of that CO2 as we possibly can. So, but I know what our path forward and the value brewing today.

Okay. Do you think, thanks for that. Have the contractual terms for ammonia with industrial customers changed over time? And do you think that there's room to make those financial terms more attractive to producers as the nitrogen markets have tightened through the years?

Actual terms, but the premium that we're receiving and that we're communicating consistently to our under CBAM. I think industrial companies open missions, Pepsi is a very good example of that partnership as well as POET on ethanol. And it's technically attractive. It's returning a good investment for aligning us with what...

This question comes from Mazahir Manandli with Rothschild.

Thank you. Just a follow-up on the gas cost. So the Q1 came in at $4.5. What would you expect the trajectory to be during the rest of the year?

Yeah, I'll start, and then Bert or Rich can add, any color. A couple different things in that, both January and February, even settling at over $7 per MMBTU. Since that time in which that occurred, we've seen gas come down, and we're seeing as the curve goes out, it flattens even more. So our expectation is that we're going to see the gas cost for the remaining part of the year, the NYMEX strip.

Thank you. And just to follow up on the production volumes, I believe early in the year you communicated the intent to switch to UAM from UREA to take advantage of better production margins.

Has that strategy effectively been reversed with UREA price having surged much higher than UREA?

Well, the interesting thing about our capability and that is...

The next question comes from Christian Oman with Open IMA.

Thank you for taking my follow-up. I didn't think I was going to get one. Just wanted to ask on your maintenance schedule. I think you've made some public comments out there about maybe delaying some maintenance in order to ensure domestic supply. Just if you can help us on how you're thinking about that maintenance schedule for the rest of the year.

Yeah, the maintenance that we had shifted, and we did it after evaluating to ensure that we could do it safely, was that one of our scheduled to be late in May, and we just shifted it to late in June. So, Kent's amount of a shift that we were doing, but allowed us to get, as Bert mentioned, about another 100,000 tons of urea up into the market in order to go down for this application season. Other than that, I would say we've done historically, and you can use that as a...

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that is all the time we have for questions for today. I would like to turn the call back over to Martin Janosik for any closing remarks. Thank you. The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.

Thank you.