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LOPE · Grand Canyon Education, Inc.

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$144.20 -1.11 (-0.76%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$3.76B
Shares
26.07M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Grand Canyon Education, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 18, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 18, 2026 51:08 33 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
51:08
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Grand Canyon Education reported Q4 2025 service revenue of $308.1 million, up 5.3% year-over-year, driven by 7.1% growth in university partner enrollments to 136,239, while operating margin expanded to 35.1% from 34.2%.

Hybrid / ABSN expansion 51 Online enrollment growth 43 Workforce shortages / new program areas 31 Traditional ground campus 25 Regulatory environment 6 AI integration 5

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +72 · low hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “GCU's tuition rates are well below those loan caps”
  • “total enrollment growth was 8.7%, which significantly exceeds GCU's long-term objectives”
  • “new traditional campus enrollments were up in the high single digits”
  • “I believe AI will make our current advantages even greater, which makes me even more confident we will continue to meet or exceed our long-term objectives”

Forward guidance

25 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $308.12M +5.3% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $86.73M +5.9% YoY

Research materials

Open the source you need; every reader stays inside this workspace.

Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • University partner enrollments grew 7.1% to 136,239, with GCU online enrollments up 8.7% and hybrid campus enrollments up 18.7% excluding closed sites.
  • Q4 operating income increased 8.1% to $108.1 million, with operating margin expanding to 35.1% from 34.2%.
  • Hybrid campus network expanded to 47 sites with five new sites opened in 2025.
  • GCU traditional campus new enrollments grew in the high single digits and fall 2026 registrations are significantly ahead of last year.
  • CFO expects little to no impact from upcoming federal loan cap changes, as GCU tuition is well below the new caps.
  • All programs at all partners passed the preliminary earnings premium accountability calculation except for one Master's of Counseling category, which the company is working to address.

Risks & pressure points

  • Q4 service revenue per student decreased slightly year-over-year due to contract modifications lowering revenue share percentages and a mix shift to lower net tuition rate students.
  • Total traditional campus enrollments declined slightly year-over-year in fall 2025 due to prior-year FAFSA site issues and higher-than-expected summer graduations.
  • New start comps are extremely challenging in the first half of 2026 after teens-level growth in Q1 and Q2 2025.
  • Master's of Counseling program category failed the preliminary earnings premium accountability calculation.
  • Q4 income tax expense increased 13.5% to $25.0 million versus the prior-year period.

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 18, 2026.

Metric Guided
Service revenue
Q1 2026
$307M – $308M
Operating margin
Q1 2026
30% – 30.3%
Effective tax rate
Q1 2026
23.4%
Diluted EPS
Q1 2026
$2.70 – $2.73
As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share
Q1 2026
$2.76 – $2.79
Service revenue
Q2 2026
$260M – $264M
Operating margin
Q2 2026
20.1% – 21.3%
Diluted EPS
Q2 2026
$1.56 – $1.68
Effective tax rate
Q2 2026
24.9%
As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share
Q2 2026
$1.62 – $1.74
Service revenue
Q3 2026
$271.5M – $278.5M
Effective tax rate
Q3 2026
24.9%
Diluted EPS
Q3 2026
$1.72 – $1.91
Operating margin
Q3 2026
21% – 23%
As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share
Q3 2026
$1.78 – $1.97
Operating margin
Q4 2026
36.4% – 38.2%
Effective tax rate
Q4 2026
24.3%
Service revenue
Q4 2026
$329M – $338.5M
Service revenue
Full Year 2026
$1.17B – $1.19B
As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share
Q4 2026
$3.63 – $3.91
Diluted EPS
Q4 2026
$3.57 – $3.85
Effective tax rate
Full Year 2026
24.3%
Operating margin
Full Year 2026
27.5% – 28.8%
Diluted EPS
Full Year 2026
$9.55 – $10.16
As adjusted, non-GAAP diluted income per share
Full Year 2026
$9.79 – $10.40

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Buybacks · derived
$100.03M
Full-screen source Call document