Mattel Inc (MAT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Hello, my name is Jessica and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Mattel Inc. fourth quarter 2024 earnings conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Jen Ketnick, VP of Investor Relations at Mattel. You may begin.

Thank you, operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Joining me today are Inan Kraiz, Mattel's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, and Anthony DeSilvestro, Mattel's Chief Financial Officer. As you know, this afternoon, we reported Mattel's fourth quarter and full year 2024 financial results. We will begin today's call with Inan and Anthony providing commentary on our results, after which we will provide some time for questions. Today's discussion, earnings release, and slide presentation may reference certain non-GAAP financial measures and key performance indicators which are defined in slide presentation and earnings release appendices please note that gross billings figures referenced on this call will be stated in constant currency unless stated otherwise references made throughout this call to historical market share and market share rankings are sourced from cercana our earnings release slide presentation and supplemental non-gap information can be accessed through the investors section of our corporate website corporate.mattel.com and the information required by Regulation G regarding non-GAAP financial measures as well as information regarding our key performance indicators is included in those documents. The preliminary financial results included in the earnings release and slide presentation represent the most current information available to management. The company's actual results when disclosed in its Form 10-K may differ as a result of the completion of the company's financial closing procedures, final adjustments, completion of the review by the company's independent registered public accounting firm, and other developments that may arise between now and the disclosure of the final results. Before we begin, I'd like to caution you that certain statements made during the call are forward-looking, including statements related to the future performance of our business, brands, categories, and product lines. Any statements we make about the future are, by their nature uncertain these statements are based on currently available information and assumptions and they are subject to a number of significant risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ from those projected in the forward-looking statements we describe some of these uncertainties in the risk factors section of our latest form 10k annual report our latest form 10q quarterly report our most recent earnings release and slide presentation and other filings we make with the SEC from time to time, as well as in other public statements. Mattel does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims any obligation to do so, except as required by law. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Inan.

Thanks, Jen. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year 2024 earnings call. 2024 was another successful year for Mattel as we continued to execute our multi-year strategy to grow our IP-driven toy business and expand our entertainment offering. Our priorities for 2024 were to grow profitability, expand gross margin, and generate strong free cash flow. We did exactly that, demonstrating operational excellence and achieving all three objectives well ahead of expectations. Looking at key financial metrics for the full year as compared to the prior year, net sales declined half a percent in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 340 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA increased $110 million or 12%. Adjusted earnings per share increased 32% and free cash flow was nearly $600 million. These results are particularly noteworthy considering the comparison against the success of the Barbie movie, which contributed approximately $100 million of operating income in 2023. Execution on our toy strategy was strong, and we grew global market share in key categories of dolls, vehicles, and games. We also made meaningful progress on our entertainment strategy across film, television, digital, consumer products, and live experiences. The Optimizing for Profitable Growth program is tracking ahead of schedule with $83 million of savings achieved in the year out of our $200 million target by the end of 2026. We also continue to strengthen our balance sheet, ending the year with $1.4 billion in cash after repurchasing $400 million of shares. The global toy industry declined slightly in 2024 per cercana, performing better than anticipated and reinforcing our belief that the toy industry has strong fundamentals and will return to growth and continue to grow over time. In the fourth quarter, we grew top line and achieved very strong profitability. Net sales increased 3% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin improved 200 basis points. Adjusted EBITDA increased 6%, and adjusted EPS increased 21%. Top line growth was driven by vehicles, action figures, and games. partly offset by a decline in dolls and infant, toddler, and preschool. We made significant progress in scaling our portfolio, optimizing our operations, evolving demand creation, and strengthening our franchise brands. We successfully relaunched Catalog IP, strengthened our relationships with major entertainment partners and key retailers, and created innovative and inspiring product lines. Looking at full-year performance by category, vehicles grew meaningfully, driven by Hot Wheels, which achieved its seventh consecutive record year. Challenger categories collectively grew, led by double-digit growth in games, with Uno achieving its highest year on record and significantly outpacing the industry, and gains in action figures with strong WWE and Minecraft product offerings. Infant, toddler, and preschool was down as we continued to exit power wheels and certain product lines in baby gear in line with our strategy. Importantly, Fisher-Price returned to growth this year, driven by Fisher-Price woods and little people. Dolls was down, primarily due to Barbie, as we wrapped the movie in the prior year. Barbie was once again the clear leader in the Dolls category and the number two property in the toy industry overall. Monster High increased for the second consecutive year since its relaunch. American Girl grew, reflecting the progress of its turnaround strategy, and Wicked and This Is One or Two product performed well and resonated with consumers globally. We also made further progress with our entertainment strategy. In film, the Masters of the Universe worldwide theatrical release date of June 5th, 2026 was announced. The film will start production this month in London. The Matchbox live-action movie was greenlit and is now in production, and Monster High and Bob the Builder movies began development. This brings the total number of announced Mattel films in development or production with major studio partners to 16. In television, Hot Wheels Let's Race Season 2 was a top 10 TV show on Netflix in 27 countries. All three Barbie animated premieres ranked in the top 10 on Netflix in multiple countries. And Barney's World ranked as a top 5 children's show on Max as part of a highly anticipated franchise relaunch. In digital games, Mattel 163, our joint venture with NetEase, continued to grow double digits and exceeded $200 million in gross billings. In live events, the Hot Wheels Legends Tour completed 22 tour stops in 13 countries, with attendance growing more than 40% over the prior year. 2025 is our 80th anniversary year. We couldn't be more proud of our mission to create innovative products and experiences that inspire fans, entertain audiences, and develop children through play. Our 2025 priorities are to grow the top and bottom line while increasing investment in our digital game self-publishing business to drive long-term growth in line with our capital allocation priorities to invest in organic growth. For the full year, we expect net sales to increase by 2% to 3% on a constant currency basis and adjusted EPS to grow by 2% to 6%. This includes the anticipated impact of new U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada imports announced on February 1st and mitigating actions we plan to take including leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing there are several key drivers in 2025 across our toy categories we expect vehicles to grow with another record year for Hot Wheels which includes the launch of our formula one partnership games to build on uno's momentum with more innovation in cultural relevance action figures to benefit from new product lines tied to the theatrical releases of a minecraft movie in april and jurassic world rebirth in july in addition to the global expansion of WWE. Infant, toddler, and preschool to expand distribution for Fisher-Price Wood across major retailers in the US and internationally. And Dolls to see improving trends in Barbie driven by optimizing demand creation, product innovation, and leaning further into momentum with adult fans. We also look forward to the launch of new products ahead of Disney's Snow White theatrical release in March and the second Wicked movie in November. 2025 will be an exciting year for our in-licensing toy partnerships as Mattel is strengthening its position as a partner of choice for major entertainment companies and sports franchises. As it relates to the toy industry, we expect it will be comparable to slightly up in 2025, primarily driven by the theatrical marketplace returning to a more normalized cadence we believe Mattel is well positioned to increase market share in our entertainment business in 2025 we expect progress to continue on our two films in production and 14 announced films in development more shows to launch on Netflix including Hot Wheels Let's Raise Season 3, Barbie's next animated special, and new seasons of Thomas and Friends and Polly Pocket, new episodes of Barney's World to premiere on Macs, and to expand our digital business with the goal of launching our first self-published digital game in 2026. 2024 was another successful year defined by profit growth, gross margin expansion, and strong cash generation. I am grateful to the entire Mattel team for their collaboration, innovation, and execution, and for achieving these results. As we progress through 2025, we are well positioned to grow and continue to successfully execute our multi-year strategy and create long-term shareholder value. I will now hand it over to Anthony, to cover the financials and our detailed outlook for 2025. As you've heard, Anthony has decided to retire, and I would like to thank him for the important role he has played in steering Mattel to achieve its strongest financial position in many years. The search for his successor is well underway, but you're not hearing the last of him today. Anthony will stay in the CFO role until May 15 and continue as an advisor until August 15 to ensure a smooth transition.

Anthony, over to you. Thanks, Anand. It has been an amazing experience for me at Mattel. It's a great company with a very promising future, and I look forward to supporting a seamless transition. In terms of Mattel's performance in Q4, As you just heard, we grew top-line and achieved very strong profitability. Net sales of $1,646,000,000 increased 2% as reported, or 3% in constant currency. Adjusted gross margin increased 200 basis points to 50.8%. Adjusted operating income increased 10% to $161,000,000. adjusted eps increased 21 to 35 cents and adjusted evita increased by 15 million dollars to 249 million looking at our full year performance as compared to the prior year net sales declined one percent as reported and 0.5 percent in constant currency adjusted gross margin improved 340 basis points to 50.9%. Adjusted operating income increased 15% to $738 million, more than offsetting the Barbie movie-related benefits in the prior year. Adjusted EPS increased by 32% to $1.62. cents. Adjusted EBITDA increased $110 million, or 12%, to $1,058,000,000, and we generated $598 million of free cash flow, turning to gross billings and constant currency by category, beginning with the fourth quarter. Overall, gross billings increased to 3%, driven by growth in vehicles and challenger categories collectively partly offset by dolls as we wrapped the barbie movie benefits from the prior year and infant tolerant preschool as we continue to exit certain product lines in the baby gear and power wheels segments total pos declined low single digits dolls growth buildings declined three percent due primarily to a 13 decline in barbie partly offset by growth in Monster High. Vehicles had another outstanding quarter growing 16%, driven primarily by Hot Wheels, which grew 17%. Infant, toddler, and preschool declined 4% due to the declines in baby gear and power wheels, partly offset by 4% growth in Fisher-Price, which benefited from Little People and Fisher-Price Wood. we are happy to see fisher price group and the turnaround strategy starting to bear fruit challenger categories collectively grew six percent driven primarily by double-digit growth in both action figures and games partly offset by a decline in building sets turning to the full year gross buildings were comparable to the prior year with gains in vehicles and challenger categories overall offset by declines in dolls and infant toddler and preschool pos declined low single digits dolls gross buildings declined eight percent due primarily to the movie related comparison in barbie barbie gross buildings declined 12 percent vehicles had an outstanding year, growing 10%, driven by Hot Wheels die-cast cars, tracks and play sets, and RC. As an unmentioned, Hot Wheels achieved its seventh consecutive record year. Disney Pixar cars, and Matchbox also contributed to growth. Infant, toddler, and preschool declined 4%, primarily due to baby gear and power wheels reflecting our exit strategy, partly offset by growth in fisher price fisher price grew four percent benefiting from the launch of fp wood and growth in little people poorly offset by a decline in infant challenger categories collectively grew three percent driven by games which benefited from double digit growth in uno and action figures partly offset by a decline in building sets looking at fourth quarter gross billings by region north america increased one percent emia increased ten percent latin america declined five percent reflecting softness in mexico and asia pacific grew ten percent driven by strong growth in australia looking at full year gross billings by region north america declined one percent emia declined two percent latin america declined one percent and asia pacific grew ten percent driven primarily by double-digit growth in australia we ended the year with retail inventory levels comparable to the prior year both in dollars and weeks of supply while comparable at year end, retail inventory movements had a positive impact on gross billing's growth in the fourth quarter, given we're wrapping a more significant seasonal decline in the prior year. We are beginning 2025 with retail inventory levels slightly elevated. Although the inventory is high quality, we expect it will be a headwind to our first quarter performance. Adjusted gross margin was 50.8% in a quarter, an increase of 200 basis points as compared to 48.8% in the prior year period. The strong increase in margin was driven by several factors. Savings from optimizing for profitable growth added 90 basis points. Lower inventory management costs primarily closeouts and obsolescence added 90 basis points supply chain deficiencies including fixed cost absorption added 90 basis points and foreign exchange and other factors added 60 basis points these games were partly offset by an 80 basis point negative mix impact as we wrap creative benefits associated with the barbie movie in the prior year and cost inflation which had a 50 basis point impact in the quarter for the full year adjusted gross margin increased 340 basis points to 50.9 percent the increase was primarily driven by supply chain efficiencies cost savings lower inventory management costs deflation and other factors which more than offset the prior benefit associated with the barbie movie moving down to pnl in the fourth quarter advertising increased 10 to 257 million as part of our plans to shift spending into the latter part of the year adjusted sgna increased two percent to 418 million dollars primarily due to higher compensation expenses partly offset by savings from the optimizing for profitable growth program for the full year advertising decreased three percent to 507 million Adjusted SG&A for the full year increased 5% to $1,493,000,000. Adjusted operating income in the fourth quarter was $161,000,000 compared to $147,000,000, an increase of 10% driven primarily by higher gross margins. For the full year, Adjusted Operating Income increased 15% to $738 million, with Adjusted Operating Income margin expanding 190 basis points to 13.7%. Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter was $249 million, compared to $234 million, an increase of 6%. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA increased 12% to $1 billion and $58 million. Adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter was $0.35 compared to $0.29 in the prior year, an increase of $0.06 or 21%. For the full year, adjusted EPS increased by $0.39 or $0.32 to $1.62. sets in addition to the operating income improvement eps performance benefited from higher interest income a lower adjusted tax rate and higher earnings from our equity method investment in mattel 163 as well as a lower share count from our share repurchase activity cash flow generation for 2024 was strong cash from operations was 801 million compared to 870 million in a prior year the prior year benefited from lower working capital primarily driven by a significant inventory reduction capital expenditures were 203 million dollars including 59 million for acquisition of a new global design center to replace a leased facility capital expenditures in the prior year were 160 million free cash flow was 598 million dollars compared to 709 million in the prior year consistent with our capital allocation priorities we repurchased 400 million dollars of mattel shares in 2024 bringing the total since resuming the program in 2023 to 603 million dollars taking a look at the balance sheet this was another year of improving our financial position we finished the year with a cash balance of 1 billion 388 million compared to $1,261,000,000 a year ago. The cash increase reflects our 2024 free cash flow net of shares repurchased. Total debt was $2,334,000,000 consistent with the prior year. Our portfolio is well-positioned with no scheduled maturities until 2026. Accounts receivable were $1 billion and $3 million compared to $1 billion and $82 million, a decline of $79 million. The decline was due to foreign currency translation and a reduction in day sales outstanding. Inventory at year-end was $502 million compared to $572 million in the prior year, a reduction of $70 million. Our inventory is at the lowest level in recent years. Debt to adjusted EBITDA finished the year at 2.2 times, excluding the benefit of our $1.4 billion cash balance. This compares to 2.5 times a year ago. The improved leverage ratio was driven by the growth in adjusted EBITDA. We continue to generate significant cost savings. Under our Optimizing for Profitable Growth program, we achieved cost savings of $24 million in a quarter with $16 million benefiting cost of goods sold and $7 million in SG&A. For the full year, we realized $83 million of cost savings and are tracking ahead of schedule to achieve the program savings target of $200 million by 2026. turning to our guidance for 2025 we expect net sales and constant currency to increase by two to three percent the key drivers of expected sales growth include continued momentum in vehicles and games driven by hot wheels and uno in dolls the launch of products tied to the theatrical releases of disney's snow white and the second wicked movie in infant tolerant preschool the global rollout of Fisher-Prize Wood, and in action figures, the benefit of licensed movie properties, Jurassic World, and Minecraft. Foreign currency translation, based on current spot rates, is expected to have a negative impact of approximately two percentage points on our net sales performance. Adjusted gross margin is expected to be comparable to the prior year. Adjusted operating income is expected to be in the range of $740 to $765 million, with the increase primarily driven by net sales growth. Moving ahead, we will be guiding to adjusted operating income instead of adjusted EBITDA, as we believe adjusted operating income is a more comprehensive profit metric for Mattel. The adjusted tax rate is expected to be 23% to 24% compared to 21% in 2024. Adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.66 to $1.72 compared to $1.62, an increase of 2% to 6%. As Anand said, this includes the anticipated impact of new U.S. tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada imports announced on February 1st and mitigating actions we plan to take, including leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential pricing. The guidance is also inclusive of increased investments in our digital games self-publishing business to drive long-term growth which are reflected in SG&A and in line with our capital allocation priorities to invest in organic growth. We continue to improve productivity and expect to achieve 60 million dollars in additional cost savings during 2025 through our optimizing for profitable growth program free cash flow is expected to be approximately 600 million dollars reflecting confidence in our strategy to create shareholder value we are targeting 600 million dollars share repurchases in 2025 subject to market conditions together with the 400 million dollars repurchased in 2024 this will fully utilize our total 1 billion dollar authorization in just two years. The benefit of share purchases is reflected in our EPS guidance. The guidance considers what the company is aware of today, but remains subject to market volatility, unexpected disruptions, including additional regulatory actions impacting international trade, such as tariffs and other macroeconomic risks and uncertainties. In closing, we had a strong fourth quarter and exceeded expectations for the year on our key priorities to grow profitability expand gross margin and generate free cash flow and continue to strengthen our balance sheet we look forward to growing the top and bottom line in 2025 as we execute our strategy and with that i will turn it over to the operator and we'd be happy to take your questions thank you.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. And our first question comes from a line of Stephen Lazchik from Goldman Sachs. Stephen, your line is open.

Hey, great. Thank you for taking the questions. Two if I could. Maybe first for Enon, could you talk a little bit more about what's giving you confidence in achieving that top line growth outlook for 2025 of two to three percent you mentioned some of the opportunities think ahead in vehicles games and action figures because you maybe expand on that a little bit and then i'd be curious what you're hearing from your retail partners and the man side as we head into 2025 especially against a year and a holiday where it seems like inventory exited at somewhat elevated levels any thoughts there would be much appreciated And then a quick one for Anthony, hopefully, is there any more detail you can give us around the assumptions you're factoring into your guidance as it relates to tariffs and some of the factors and contingencies you're planning to put in place if they stay in place for the duration of the year, particularly around any headwinds to unit sales or margins that you're factoring in? Thank you.

Hi, Stephen. We expect a few drivers, both in toys and entertainment. On the toy side, we are seeing expect continued momentum in vehicles and games, driven by Hot Wheels, which we believe will have another record year, and Uno, which just had its highest year ever. Both brands are doing really well with a lot of innovation, and we expect them to continue to drive business. In Dahls, we're launching a product tied to the theatrical releases of Snow White with Disney and the second Wicked movie. And we also expect improving trends in Barbie. By then, it will be two years post the movie. In infant older and preschool, we are launching, rolling out the globally fish-priced wood, which is having a very good momentum. And in action figures, we're going to bring out two big movies, Jurassic World and Minecraft, and continue to expand globally, WWE, which is self-benefiting from the Netflix show that they're rolling out around the world. we also have on the entertainment side some goods on Netflix Hot Wheels Let's Race season 3 Barbie's animated special and new seasons of Thomas and Friends and Polly Pocket also Barney is having its own exposure on Max and we continue to drive the business overall so good momentum and feeling very good about the prospects for the year And I could comment on Q1, and I'll come back.

With respect to, you know, Q1 and how we're starting the year, POS is off to a good start. But there are a couple of factors that need to be considered with respect to gross billings in the quarter. The first is there is a later Easter holiday in 2025. And as a result, you know, we would expect some modest shift of timing of shipments between Q1 and Q2. And also, as we stay 24, with retail inventories slightly elevated, you know, this inventory is high quality, and we'll work through it in the first quarter. And importantly, you know, we're guiding the top and bottom line growth. We're moving to the topic of tariff, you know, taking a step back for a moment. Over the past several years, we have been continuously optimizing today we source products from seven different countries and in 2025 we expect china will work to an industry average of about 80 percent and with the u.s representing about our terror exposure in the u.s related to china should be about 20 percent of global production and with respect to have no source and by 2027 no single country is expected to represent more than about or about half of that in terms of U.S. sales. With respect to the tariffs, our teams have been fully in planning for a range of scenarios. And in terms of the financial impact on the guidance includes the anticipated impact of the new tariff based on what we know today and mitigating actions we plan to take, including those leveraging the strength of our supply chain and potential...

That's great. Thank you very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Perry with Bank of America. Alex, your line is open.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions here, and congrats on a strong quarter. And Anthony, congrats on your retirement as well. I guess just first, I sort of wanted to follow up on that last line of questioning. You know, in terms of the top line, how is sell-in positive for 2025 if you're tracking at, you know, low single-digit declines in POS, you know, as the exit run rate and fork you? And then you said retail, you know, inventory slightly elevated. Is the expectation that POS turns positive? And I guess what is driving the optimism there is that, you know, all based on the visibility you have on the improved content slate? And then just back to the first quarter, Anthony, how much below that sort of full year 2% to 3% growth should we be thinking about for the first quarter?

Yeah, so, you know, Inan went through some of the key drivers, right, in terms of our expectation around 2% to 3% net sales growth, you know, in constant currency. So I don't need to repeat those. You know, we believe there's enough drivers. We believe we are well-positioned to outpace the industry and gain market share in 2025, right? We have a lot of innovation coming. We have a lot of activations coming. Again, we're very confident we can achieve, you know, that guidance. In terms of the, you know, the flow of the first quarter, right, we talk about retail inventory levels. We ended the year with retail inventory comparable to the prior year. So a little bit of headwind as we go into Q1, and that's why we mentioned that in terms of the first quarter outlook and also the timing of the Easter, you know, holiday. But beyond that, you know, we expect to, you know, achieve growth, balance a year, and achieve our guidance.

Makes sense. And then just back to the, you know, tariff mitigation strategy, you know, you guided 25 ahead of expectations inclusive of the impact of tariffs. Any help on, you know, what you're actually doing to mitigate? Are there certain parts of the portfolio that you think you have the elasticity to raise price on? Are you cost sharing with suppliers? And then maybe just any, like, EPS or quantification of, you know, what's embedded in the guide in terms of a bottom line hit from the tariffs, especially as it relates to, you know, Mexico and Canada, since those are now delayed.

I mean, I understand the question, but, you know, specifics on our end because there is many, you know, as we said, you know, our guidance does include a range of assumptions, not just around tariffs, but around other items like cost inflation and mix and production and many assumptions, right? And, you know, certainly against the tariff, we have a range of mitigating actions. We don't want to necessarily disclose our playbook, but, you know, they are in response to the tariff. They do leverage the strength of our global supply chain, and they also include, you know, potential price increases. And, look, we do work closely with our retail partners, you know, to achieve the right balance and always keep, you know, consumers in mind when we consider pricing actions.

All very helpful. That's the block going. Oh, sorry. Go ahead, Dan.

Sorry, Alex, just to add the point on supply chain that Anthony touched on, which is this has been a strategy that we've implemented since 2018. It was a proactive strategy to diversify and build a geographically balanced supply chain infrastructure that will allow us to be a better position for different eventualities. It wasn't about any one particular country, and it wasn't even necessarily about tariffs. It was just about making sure you have a resilient, flexible, well-diversified supply chain system. And between our own factories and third-party factories operating out of seven different countries, we have a lot of flexibility in the hall. And this would be our first port of call. How do we leverage our capabilities there? And, of course, we have other mitigating actions we can take, but feel good about the plan, factoring what's been announced and other potential changes as well.

All very helpful. Best of luck going forward. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Megan Clapp with Morgan Stanley. Megan, your line is open.

Thanks so much. Congrats to Anthony as well. we will certainly miss you. I'm going to try and ask this question again, maybe just a bit more pointed. On the first quarter, can you just help us understand how much sales should be down? There's a lot of moving parts. If I just simply do math on POS was down low single digits in the fourth quarter, your shipments were up, you know, 2%, that's a five-point gap. If you just do the math on sales it you know my math says it could be a 10 point plus headwind of the first quarter um is that too big uh maybe if you could just again just help us understand a little bit more what one q should be down and what's the impact on margins as well yeah let me take that in two parts Megan, the first is, you know, your comments around the Q4 gross billings relative to POS somehow being headwind into 2025, and that's not the case.

And let me talk a little bit about the delta between gross billings and POS in the fourth quarter, and I've got to go back a little bit and give you a little bit of context. You know, retail inventory levels typically follow a seasonal pattern. The increase in the third quarter ahead of the holiday season and decline in the fourth quarter, right, as the products sell through. And the change in that build and decline year over year impacts our gross billings. And what happened is in the fourth quarter of the prior year saw a more significant decline in the fourth quarter compared to this year. And that's what's driving this delta between gross billings and POS. So, it's more to do with last year as opposed to this year, and it's not a carryover impact. And that said, our inventory levels are slightly elevated, but are very modest. The other potential headwind is a little bit of time in the holiday season. So we're not guiding you to Q1, just saying, look, we're going to be below our full year run rate because of those two factors.

You typically talk first half, second half. I know it can be hard to guide by quarter. Can you, you know, is there any color you can give around first-half, second-half expectations?

We've been in that, you know, more normal, you know, 35-65, you know, range, and there's no expectation that'll change.

Okay. And then maybe just as a follow-up, you talked about increased investment in digital. Is that OPEX or CAPEX? I didn't catch if you gave us CAPEX guidance. And so if you, you know, could give us CapEx guidance, that would be great as well.

Sure. What we're talking about on the self-publishing side, so these are initiatives we've talked about before to capture more of the upside, right, and drive long-term growth, right? And, you know, again, these are self-publishing efforts. They'll be recorded in the SG&A line, not CapEx. And I can tell you, you know, CapEx for 2025 would be comparable to 2024 levels.

Okay, thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Horvors with J.P. Morgan. Chris, your line is open.

Thanks and good evening and congratulations to Anthony. So I wanted to follow up on the gross margin. I understand there are a lot of puts and takes, especially with the tariffs, But can you give Broadstrokes views on what the drivers of gross margin would be? It would seem like you still have, you know, the efficiencies for gross have come in better than expected. Seems like you should still have a good benefit there coming in into 2025. And you do plan to grow sales. So, you know, maybe there's some fixed cost absorption is essentially like the offset, the tariffs. and that's how you get down to a flat gross margin. So just overall talk about, you know, the drivers within gross margin.

Sure. You know, happy to do that. The first comment I'll make is, you know, the performance of 2024 up 340 basis points to 50.9%. So we're, you know, working off a, you know, a higher than expected base. But when you think about 2025, I would bucket it in terms of some headwinds and some tailwinds. headwinds, the first one would be cost inflation, right? So in the fourth quarter and after a number of quarters of deflation, we actually saw some inflation and we expected that to continue into 2025. You know, that's a combination of labor cost inflation and some inflation on logistics. The other headwind would be the tariffs themselves. Then in terms of tailwinds, there's really three. the mitigating actions we're going to take against those tariffs, plus a little bit of scale benefit or fixed cost absorption. And the third would be cost savings from our optimizing for price. We're off to a great start on that program. This is the one we announced at the beginning of 2024. We achieved 83 million of savings in 2024 and are guiding to an additional $60 million of savings in 2025, and the majority of those will benefit. But when you put all those factors together, performance on growth.

Got it. And then just as we think about the tariff impact and the ability to execute pricing, I guess, presumably, there'll be a lag to that. So, you know, is it sort of embedded in there, sort of more headwinds earlier, and then recovery later in terms of how the gross margin sort of shape will look?

Yeah, there's a little bit delay to both actions. You know, we have to run, you know, inventory through the balance sheet. There's a lag there, you know. So, you know, without getting into too much, you know, detail, you know, we're confident that we can execute these actions. And when you consider our gross margin holistically, you know, we plan to hold our margin year over year.

Got it. And then one quick 1Q sales follow-up, which is, as you think about the timing of Snow White and Minecraft, is that potentially substantial enough to offset the later Easter?

No, I wouldn't say so.

Got it. Thanks very much.

Your next question comes from the line of Arpine Kucharian with UBS. Arpine, your line is now open.

Hi, thank you. Strong set of results. Congratulations. To just maybe ask one more question somewhat related to tariffs. Do you expect major shifts in FOB at all, given tariffs? Typically, you know, that could be as much as 40-50% of annual shipments. Could there be any sort of surprises there in terms of what retailers could do, given the changing landscape of Paris? Any color there would be great. And then I have a quick follow-up.

Yeah, Auburn, I would say it's really too early to say, you know, we obviously work very closely with our retailer partners, and we'll figure this thing out.

Thank you. I think it was the first time we saw Hot Wheels surpass Barbie in volume in terms of annual results. you know, which speaks to incredible diversification. Hot Wheels growth has just been impressive and continues just defying odds, right? Could you speak to those drivers for 2025, including entertainment plans and timing? Do you have any updates on the movie, on Hot Wheels?

Well, we're talking about Hot Wheels specifically. Yes, it has been just an incredible execution of comprehensive strategy, a very broad range of product, different lines and different executions, and continuing strong relationship, emotional connection with fans all over the world and broadening the audience even more. So, you know, achieving seven consecutive record years is a huge achievement, and we also are saying now that we are targeting another record year. You can see also how we continue to innovate and have new partnerships. F1 and Ferrari, recent announcements, both were launched this year with a whole range of die-cast cars. You know, there's something very telling about the range of products that we have with Hot Wheels, where on one hand we sell, you know, a basic car, which is the number one selling toy in the industry, all the way to a $700, Daniel Arsham collector set as well. So you have a full range. We also continue to evolve outside of the toy aisle. There's the TV show, the Hot Wheels Let's Race that is doing well and expanding distribution. We're broadening the Hot Wheels Legends Tour even more. It just wrapped its seventh consecutive year with the highest attendance ever, 125% up year on year, and incredible reach in terms of media impressions. So lots to be excited about. And this is before we even talk about the movie, which is also developing well, produced by J.J. Abrams at Warner Brothers. I can't reveal too much, but it's getting better and better in terms of the package we're putting together. And when this comes out, there will be a whole new level of acceleration and excitement that we...

Great, great. And then I have one more quick, I'm sorry, for a third question. And, you know, outside of ASP movement year over year, could you share what is the extent of pricing action you're taking for 2025, if any?

I didn't hear the first part to your question, Arvane.

Yeah, I don't know why. I literally can't hear half of what you guys are saying and you probably can't hear me. But I was asking outside of ASP movement year over year in your product line, could you share what is the extent of pricing action you are thinking of for 2025?

Yeah, so we haven't given any specifics around pricing actions. That's something that's, you know, one of the potential actions related. Again, as we said, you know, we're going to be working closely with our retail partners here to find them.

Got it. Thank you. Congratulations.

Thank you, Arpanet.

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Handler with Roth Capital. Well, Eric, your line is now open.

Thank you for the question. Anthony, just, you know, you gave good perspective on the puts and takes for gross margin. I wonder if you could do the same for operating expenses. And then also with regard to the guidance, are buybacks assumed as one of the drivers in the bottom line expectations?

Yes. Let me start with, you know, the buyback. we've been you know very active on the buyback front you know we resumed repurchases in 2023 we did 200 million we did 400 million in 2024 now we're accelerating to a targeted level of 600 million in 2025 and you know we have built in you know the benefit of that lower share count and so that's in there and you know with that 600 million you know we would have you know repurchased close to 20% of our market cap and fully utilize the $1 billion authorization. And just in terms of the middle of the P&L, you know, we're not giving specific guidance, but I don't think you'll see levels materially different from.

Okay. Thank you. And Inan, you know, you've talked a long time about wanting to, you know, build up entertainment. You said entertainment at scale can be very profitable. Can you give us some perspective? And you listed a whole bunch of things, you know, that impacts your entertainment line. But how big is this entertainment bucket right now? And where do you think that can go over the next several years?

Thanks, Eric. We talked about it before, that we haven't provided a breakdown between toys and the entertainment strategy, but we have said, and we still say, and are very encouraged by the progress we're seeing, that entertainment at scale can have a meaningful impact. And, you know, there's one example I can talk about or, you know, something current that we mentioned before that is also, you know, we're discussing here as well, is our investment in mobile games. This is a new initiative for us in terms of investing in self-publishing still within a capitalized construct. So it doesn't change, you know, our risk profiles, but it does give us what we believe is an asymmetric potential return in an exciting, growing industry where brands play a critical role. And our strategy is all around to create additional value outside of what we used to do as a company, primarily just in the toy business. the uh where where we stand out is with the strength and quality of this of our portfolio these are brands that have heritage value very diverse mix of of franchises across genre and demographics that is that are very current and really move we are now executing this strategy at scale. The question used to be whether brands resonate outside of toys. Then the question was, can we actually do that? Because Mattel was never successful fully in executing an entertainment strategy. Now, there are proof points in a few areas, not just the movie, but also in digital and consumer. The question now is, can you do that at scale?

And this is exactly where we are in terms of our journey and you will see more of that coming through in the coming years thanks enough your next question comes from the line of fred whiteman with wolf research fred your line is open hey guys thanks for the question i just wanted to ask on the industry outlook you've been pretty emphatic and pretty consistent that you would expect that to grow in 25 but if you look at the language in the release and the slides today you're saying comparable to slightly up so i'm wondering what maybe is giving you a little bit more caution uh versus your prior outlook well we we've been very consistent uh about our uh positive outlook

with respect to the industry and you know entering even 2024 as you recall the expectation was for uh you know a high uh even up to a high single digit decline when you what when you heard what other people said. And we've always been more positive. And we're glad to see that the industry did stabilize and only decline slightly in 2024, less than 1%. And so, you know, this is a good place relative to what expectations were out there. And we continue to see the industry performing better than people expect we continue to believe that the toy industry has strong fundamentals and that it will return to growth and will continue to grow over the long terms we're seeing toys continue to play an important part of consumers lives we're seeing retailers prioritizing toys as a strategic lever we know that toy shoppers drive traffic they spend more time in stores and typically have a bigger basket. We, you know, looking back, you see that toys over time, toy POS has been growing and outpacing declines in birth rates. The industry growth has been driven by both pricing and units, which is a healthy place to be. And the adult collectors, you know, this is proving to be a sustainable trend. so with that we do expect the industry to be comparable to slightly up in the year we're seeing theatrical movies coming back to their normal cadence with the whole slate of movies you know we have some exciting partnership I mentioned Snow White and Minecraft Jurassic World the second wicked movie but there are other movies that are coming out all of which gives the industry buoyancy this is not just about toy products directly related to the smoothies but it's a general buoyancy in the industry and within all of that we believe that we are very well positioned to increase our own market share and output from the industry and a combination of that gives you maybe a longer answer than you ask for but I hope that I give you enough color in terms of our belief in the industry and where we think we can end up.

Nope, that's super helpful. And then just one more quick one. Could you give us a little bit of color on how you're thinking about Mattel Brick Shop, maybe what the opportunity for that could be, how quickly that could ramp, and maybe what that means for some of the other construction brands that you guys have?

Yes, this is another exciting opportunity for Mattel where we leverage our capabilities between design very strong supply chain and a global commercial platform this we haven't announced the exact product that we are launching we said we will do that in May but as always you can expect the best and you know an exciting product execution from from from a tale what is interesting to note and I should highlight that is that we are leaning on the Mattel brand and leveraging the trust and relationship with Mattel. This will not be under the mega brand, but under the Mattel umbrella brand. And same strong people that we have in the company will drive that. And we are excited by this opportunity road driver for us. Thanks a lot.

Great. And our final question is from the line of Linda Bolton-Weiser with D.A. Davidson. Linda, your line is now open.

Yes, hello. So I was curious about on the mitigating actions that you're taking to offset the tariffs and you're alluding to your supply chain strategies and your competencies there. I'm wondering if in some weird kind of way the tariffs could be like a blessing in disguise because if you have competitors who can't leverage their supply chain and don't have the advantages that you have, that maybe you can be able to kind of be more competitive against your competitors. And in some ways, tariffs could help your positioning in the industry. I'd be interested in your thoughts on that.

Thank you, Linda, for the question. Yes, we do believe that supply chain is a competitive advantage for us. we worked very hard to turn it into a competitive advantage. It used to be, you can call it a handicap at some point in the past, but we now see this as a very strong competitive advantage. And what you've seen is that in times where there's dislocation in the market and changing dynamics and challenging market conditions, we stand out. We are very good at managing complexities. This is what we do. During COVID, where supply chain was a real bottleneck for many people, not just in toys, I'm talking more broadly, supply chain was one of our strongest competitive advantages, and we continue to leverage that. This is not, I should say, this is not just about cost. It's also about quality. it's about service levels, it's about how we work with retailers, it's about how do you place the right product at the right time, at the right amount, on the right shelf. And we work with 500,000 doors where we sell our product. This doesn't include online retail and e-commerce that comes on top of that. So we continue to improve and strengthen our supply chain. Supply chain was also a big driver for the improvements and efficiencies that we achieved this year that get to such high levels of gross margin and profitability. So it is an advantage, and we will work hard and continue to improve what we do and serve fans and work to continue to grow and expand our business.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you, Linda. Okay, thank you and thank you everyone for your questions. This was another successful year for Mattel as we continue to execute our multi-year strategy. Looking to 2025, we're excited to celebrate Mattel's 80th anniversary and are well positioned to continue to grow profitability and capture the full value of our IP. Before we conclude today's call, on behalf of all of us at Mattel, I would like to express our sadness for those impacted by the devastating wildfires in our headquarter city. Mattel has been working extensively with nonprofit partners to support children and families in need following this unprecedented crisis. Our hearts go out to all those who have been affected, including our LA-based team is ongoing. Thank you, thank you everyone, and now I will turn the call back over to the operator.

Thank you again for joining us. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.