Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY) June 9, 2026 Conference Transcript

aren't great element electronics materials businesses. They are, you know, high, you know, call it high purity commodity acids, right? They sell into the semiconductor market for sure, but they're not process chemistries. They're not customer intimate. They're not formulation businesses. Well, it's the same in the gases space. There are a lot of gases businesses that are selling technical grade gases that are volume driven and commodity driven. That's not interesting for us. But there are niche gases businesses that are selling a very specific solution where the packaging matters, the purity matters, the way it's used matters, and those would fit with Elemental. Okay, that makes sense.

So can you talk about what you're seeing? I mean, it's turning to consumer electronic end markets, like auto and consumer electronics. How big are those markets for you, and what are you seeing in those markets right now?

So the auto market, we bifurcated at our investor day recently between industrial surface treatment for auto. So that's functional plating, decorative plating, and then auto electronics, which is power electronics and so forth. You know, the auto market has, you know, it's been flat to downish for us. The power electronics side, auto electronics is growing. There's content growth, there's share gain for our technologies versus competitive technologies with the Argomax that we talked about. So that's a good business for us. Remains a growth business for us on the electronics side. On the industrial side, you know, volumes have been down overall, but we're growing earnings through market share and efficiency and productivity. And that market overall will come back. Tronics is growing, there's content growth, there's shared gains, there's plenty we can do to make that business better as we've demonstrated over the past three years. On the consumer electronics side.

He's an Autos Analyst for Mizzou and joining me today from Mobileye is CFO Moran Shamesh. Brodansky, did I do that right? And Mobileye IR, Dan Gavs. I've known Dan for like maybe 20 years I think.

Don't say that. Don't say that.

But, Moran, thank you so much for coming down. We really appreciate it. I know, yeah, I know Mobileye doesn't travel a lot, but it's great to see you. And Dan kept the weather fantastic, so this should be great. Exactly, exactly. Just a quick background on Mobileye, obviously the global leader enabling advanced driver assist in millions of vehicles globally, from cars getting faster to getting smarter. I think Mobileye is redefining that the most important vehicle company and it's not under the hood, but the intelligence behind the windshield. How do you like that? It's good. Awesome, right? So please join me in welcoming Mobileye CFO, Moran Shamesh and I.R. Dan Giles. Thank you, gentlemen. So I wanted to start off quick on Mobileye. As you look at, you guys are doing 38 million IQ units this year. You talked about some of the China demand has been incrementally better. Maybe you can set the table on how you see that IQ progressing between China, you have opportunities in Europe, you have noted India as a new market coming on, so maybe I'll let you start there.

Yeah, so we had a very, we were seeing, you know, we're on track with our expectations. I would say on the China piece that China export volumes for emerging markets like Asia, Latin America have grown significantly year on year for some of our customers. Like I think for Gili it was like over 100% year on year, which impacts, yeah. and and also cherry had significant growth and there it's it's like an upside it's a real upside to our volume in North America or Europe since it doesn't you know supersede that volume it's just additional volume from emerging market and that's you know it's really good Q1 was significantly high because of inventory adjustment 2025 came out fairly low for for inventory and that is something that was in q1 for the rest of the year I think that the underlying demand is between nine to nine point five million units that doesn't take into account you know further massive export volumes in in China which are for a major market which is an upside and our outlook is kind of takes the low end of this number but there is a there is some upside room for upside yeah and and you mentioned Europe as I mean China export markets as being the upside which is probably not admitted how do you see Europe market through the rest of the year how do you see us the rest of you like those more like flattish and how do you know no it's not it's not it's not flattish but this these are more related to our I would say top 10 customers which are like Western customers we perform I think better than their production level they're supposed to be down I don't know three four percent but we are growing like six or seven percent within these customers and I think there are a few reasons for that and that refer I think to both North America and Europe. First is ADAS adoption rate. So ADAS adoption rate is growing. We have some market share increase, modest market share increase within some customers. So for some of them we are in the 90% or 100% but for some of them it's like 60 or 70 so we still can gain share with new programs this year we also you know had this inventory adjustment which is not a recurring item and we also have the dual chip program in 2026 it's approximately 800,000 units of a program that has two chips in the same car so this is also you know something that is meaningful and emerging markets it's it's not within our core top customers but India that you mentioned is also something that can evolve yeah we also have you know sometimes we also increase our customer base like Volvo is a good example potentially Subaru that haven't worked with us before and this is also an upside to volume in you know the future your future years the 800 thousand units you mentioned where it's a dual chip is that for the European market and you mentioned the India market is that already embedded in a 9.5 million run rate or is that our upside in case I think it's it's a different thing i think for the basic of it we we do sell adas in india right so this is incorporated into these numbers but india currently you know there are in terms of adas uh just a way to think about it there are five million cars approximately in india and only 10 percent adas adoption rate yeah versus like 60 or 70 percent in the west right so there is you know we don't take it into account yet in our numbers but there's a major upside there the growth from India is more like

2027 and beyond like we have a few car models with Mahindra now that are that are doing well but it was basically the success of the technology within those vehicles that drove them to you know sign business to expand across their model base add more advanced programs and then you have like a new safety testing regime coming into india that starts in 2027 that should drive like adoption like across all the oems got it yeah and the design was with mahindra were for advanced products so it's unrelated to aid us it's uh supervision and surround aid us in uh surround data we're even the tier one so the asp is higher but that is like the volume relates more to

to 2027 or end of 2027 or 2028. Got it. I guess it is an additional potential in terms of high volumes.

And one of the big ramps ahead for you is the whole Volkswagen, Porsche ramp. You talked about more like second half 27, I guess. I mean, you have multiple models there. It's a massive OEM, they run multiple millions of units. Can you talk to how that expectation is? Is that still there? Do you still see multiple models ramping there?

Yeah, so I'll start with maybe 2026, obviously we have the ADAS business, and we have, it's not with VW, but the supervision first generation that we start to the Gilly Group, especially to Polestar. It's like 50,000, 60,000 units. That's for 2026. And we have the RoboTaxi program, which in terms of where it stands, it's in final validation stages. The production line in Hanover is already in place and producing cars. VW is the one producing them. and it's yet final test with the system that happens in in 2026 and you know maybe validation with non-public you know with the safety driver with first with non-public population and then expanding to public with a safety driver that will happen end of 2026 and the beginning of 27 with the goal to expands to six cities in 2027 so we have orlando and los angeles already in place and testing and four additional uh expected cities in in europe so that is on track and that's the time frame and from there it's just scaling yeah how quick can you scale from city to city which you know we feel good about um so that is for robot taxi for supervision uh sop is on track for the beginning or first half of 2027 usually you know there are one or two models and then you add another you know this for portion works well yeah so it will ramp I think in terms of volume the second half of 2027 but the SOP isn't in the first half and usually you get you know to a peak volume after I don't know two or three years yeah and it's still a massive big he's a huge oh yeah how do size that opportunity because right now supervision is like yeah fifty thousand units or something so

yeah it's 50 yeah but yeah it's uh it's a big oem and and we're talking about a lot of volume so we can right pick to much more than what we're saying and the asps are like 800 per supervision so it's like yeah even more like thousand dollars thirteen hundred thirteen hundred yeah yeah yeah what we've said is is that you know there's 17 models that will eventually be in production with this from Porsche and Audi and a couple of the other premium automakers and and you know the peak volume is in the kind of the 300 to 350,000 per year and you know if that's like 6x audio running now yeah exactly exactly and you know at thirteen hundred dollars a unit like it creates you know very significant revenue growth I think it typically we also when we see these kind of initial product features like you know the tendency is like if they're successful to add more models to add more volume so like typically we you know often see the you know the program volumes get outpaced by the actual volumes got it and and surround adas is for you know 20 and and we also for supervision by the way we also have mahindra coming in uh for 28 uh volume uh surround adas is like sops is not before end of 2027 so we'll see the volume and these are massive volumes

uh we'll see the volume as of 2028 and again it will ramp after two or three years to a few millions of units between like three or four million units a year and just to take a step back like on surround adas what is the asp um yeah so it's like uh you know surround adas we really see it as you know an expansion of ADAS or and the ASPs are like two or three times what we sell now yeah and you know it's coming from a few maybe from a few areas so first you know regulation has been more extent yeah and it's it's difficult to face the regulation with only single camera so you need a few cameras the software is more sophisticated so the asp is higher secondly it's it's like becoming um or might become like standard fit for some of the cars to have like an hands-off system on highways you know in in more um it's um in more expanded models Surround data is for you know high volume models like in VW design we we have they have like Golf and Skoda cars that are selling many many cars so we're talking about high volume and also the advantage to you know for mobile like to

combine yeah the hardware and the software as we do with the IQ in one ECU without having to go to multiply suppliers and executing you know tens millions or after a few years hundreds of millions of units it's something that we are confident in it's interesting if I take a step back no you're you know today the big market for you is IQ 38 million units let's say 50 $49 $48 you have this whole supervision layering on like you said 300 350 thousand per year are kind of at a volume run rate in two years, let's say, at $1,300, that's a massive step up. And then you have surrounded as might be in 28, for staff 28?

Yeah, start at 28. Like $150. We also have chauffeur, by the way, on supervision. It's like $2,500 starting 2028 with, you know, without it. That's a robot taxi. No, not the robot taxi, chauffeur, which is a consumer car. Like a level three. you know consumer car that's you know eyes off on on highways we're currently you know working on the technology this is a very challenging and interesting project in terms of the driving policy the perception and you know to have it under different weather conditions day and night so it's uh but this volume is for 2028 and it's also high ASP and the RoboTaxi of course but it's not a consumer vehicle yeah the RoboTaxi we're talking about like for 2027 I think you know with expanding to six cities the minimum will be like a few hundreds of vehicles yeah maybe after you know thousand between thousand two thousand it depends you know on the scale for RoboTaxi 400 a few hundreds by when? For 2027, at least.

Got it. But again, I mean, you said pretty 28, like $150, let's say, surrounded as three, four million units is a massive step up versus, you know, where volumes and ESPs are running today, I guess.

Yeah, it probably doesn't get to that volume in year one, but I think that that's like, I do think investors tend to overlook that there's like a lot of growth potential right in this kind of core high volume yeah behind the windscreen yeah you know adas right i think even even without the asp growth we're seeing kind of outperformance in volume you know in in a typical year like this one where you're growing faster than your underlying customers you've got this emerging market growth starting to like really kind of make a difference and then you've got surround ADAS, which can, you know, add, you know, $75, $100 per car. Because it's not going to be in addition to the $50 chip, but, like, that's, you know, if you can get to 10%, 15% of your volume there, you know, the underlying growth rate gets pretty high in what's kind of seen as, like, just a mature sort of sleepy business, you know. So I think that's something that people should pay attention to.

Typical automotive, I guess, is slow, and the ramp is kind of, takes time, I guess.

Yeah, but for the high volume brands, as Dan mentioned, there's a tendency to, you know, expand to more models and model vehicles, and then, you know, the numbers are high at the end of the day, even if it, you know, supersedes ADAS in some of the models.

Got it. That's very interesting because the unit numbers start to add up when you talk about additional 3 million, 3.3 million between surrounding ADAS and supervision, and the ASPs are just massive. I want to go to the robotaxi side. You have some partnerships, as you mentioned, with Volkswagen, Moya, and Uber. but maybe we can take it one at a time and then go through how you see that ramping up. Some of them have thrown out 100,000 unit numbers by 2030, I guess. 2033.

Yes, so I mean that keeps going out, I guess, but maybe we can talk to what the content is on the hardware stack and the software stack, and it seems to be a little bit crowded because everybody seems to be trying to get into the robotaxi side as well but maybe start off with the Volkswagen so yeah I think that the transaction or cooperation with VW moya is really unique in its nature so on the one hand mobilize bringing the self-driving system which is relatively a low-cost system the compute is developed in-house in terms of the sensor suit it's like off-the-shelf lighters rather than developing you know specific lighters for for this product which means in terms of the business model since it's a low-cost system you can play with the upfront payment versus the per mileage revenue because the cost initial cost is not that significant and on the other hand vw moya are bringing you know the operational involvement obviously but also vw production or current assembly lines that where cars are going to be produced and it enables scaling maybe more rapidly there is already um you know a production line in place in in hanover from the beginning of this year producing cars for this project you don't need to go to different oems and look for l4 platforms and you know changing and adjusting it um for every car model so you it's it's very in terms of scalability um what's the content for you on the robotaxi or what is the content of the hardware side in the robotaxi um he's talking about like total revenue yeah yeah total revenue is like above like 50 uh 50 000 wow yeah over three years over a few years so it also it has to be amortized to a yeah it includes an initial payment and and also you know some recurring revenue right at the beginning the first SOP It's more for every car that is commercially operated and then You know some SOPs will be maybe per mileage Not at the first stage because we want to have maybe the guaranteed revenue for the car that is operational with the system And then the per mileage is make sense when once you scale just like a third of the revenue upfront and then there's a When Volkswagen runs the RoboTaxi, do you get any recurring revenue from it when it's operational? Yeah, it's part of the, you know, 50,000, at least 50,000. It's part of it. So part of it is initial payment, and part of it is recurring as the car gets operated.

I mean, they've talked about 2,000 units by end of 27, and as you said, 100,000 units by 2033. Do you think that's still feasible or?

Yeah, I think that, I mean, for 2027, scaling to six cities, as I mentioned, it's like at least, you know, hundreds of units. And yeah, it can get between 1,000 and 2,000 easily.

We'll use the Elon S-curve thing where like, you know, what the exact date of kind of the safety driver out and commercialization makes a big difference between kind of what your first year units will be. but i mean if you want to be in six cities you probably want to have four or five hundred cars in each of those cities like maybe not exactly at first or you know but i think we think it's we think it's definitely feasible i mean waymo is kind of proving out the demand um you know we're we're seeing like i think maybe the excitement around waymo and tesla was maybe higher like, you know, six to 12 months ago, like this long tail edge case issue is, is a really sticky one. So like, we don't think anybody's running away with the market here. You know, we like the business model because like Maran said, you know, the cars are, you know, I was talking to a robo taxi company where their, their cars have to go to three different manufacturing facilities. They get produced at the main factory and then you go to a different facility to get like the redundant braking and steering then you go to another facility to get the sensors and the compute put in ours is just kind of one assembly line so you've got that scalability we've got all you know tons of data for for mapping that can kind of lead to like good kind of city to city expansion um so yeah we're feeling good about the model and i think like the pricing we have a lot of flexibility you know if you're generating you know sixty seventy thousand dollars you know over three years but your cost is in the you know you know well less than ten thousand dollars you know you have flexibility to move the model between

upfront cost per mile maintenance you know so we feel like we have a lot of flexibility got it and talking about scalability like you obviously have a similar robotaxi engagement with Uber as well, right? Is this more of a plug and play kind of thing? Like have similar hardware? What's the targets there like in terms of scaling that?

This is like similar, like so you know, the vehicles are produced by Volkswagen, you know, Moya is kind of the owner operator and taking care of like, you know, that's, Moya is VW's autonomy division. Like they're taking care of like the connection to the platform, and the platform is Uber in Los Angeles. Oh, okay, so the operators are the same, yeah. Got it, got it.

And we also have Holland, that project we're working on, like public transportation, that is also going to be in production, so.

Got it, interesting. And then you have the, you mentioned the Shaffer product on the consumer side, right, I believe that's going with Audi, yeah is that and can you talk to you know when that starts to ramp what's a dollar opportunity there how many models on audio the ramping when is what is the timing yeah yeah so the timing is 2028 this is a not as high volume as the supervision as the supervision volume but but on the other hand is much higher and what does the chauffeur actually do just to kind of my beacon you know is Is it more of a driver assist or a L4?

No, so it's, I wouldn't say it's more of a driving assist. As I mentioned, the technology in terms of, you know, eyes off system on highways under different weather conditions, again, day and night, this is something that is, you know, I think that as an L3 product, sometimes you would see, you know, different OEMs having it, but not, it's not fully operational, you know. sometimes it's not so we feel good about it that you know to have a program with an L3 system at you know at high volumes that is going to be you know in eyes off system that can operate really you know under different conditions and got it and

And the Sheffer is a software stack, right?

Is the hardware supervision? Yeah.

What's that on your desk?

Yeah, it's a. No, it's not really supervision. But yeah, it's similar to supervision maybe in the concept that we are the tier one. So we do, we provide not only the chips, but also the ECU. And it's similar in that matter.

And so what is the total stack?

Compared to supervision, you're essentially taking the supervision system, which is an 11-camera, 360-degree computer perception, REM-based mapping, decision-making software, and supports eyes-on driving everywhere. with chauffeur you add a belt of radars and lidars around the vehicle a third chip the ASP for us goes from you know 1300 to around 2500 per unit and it supports you know full driver disengagement on highways so you know basically read a book watch a movie while the car's driving you are going that far and then maybe you know it depends on the person off the highway you still have the supervision system in place it's just you know i think that the uh kind of the risk reward of supporting like you know fully eyes off driving in urban areas is is not really i think that you know the oems believe the value proposition is is kind of on on the commute you know take care of you know do other things on 90% of your drive, something like that.

And so at Audi, like how many models, what models?

We've talked about six models that would ramp to around 50,000 units per year.

And any other customers that you are talking, engaging with on Shuffer?

Yeah, I mean, we don't have any additional customers announced.

On Surround ADAS, you know, going back to that three to four million run rate in a couple of years.

It's a couple of years after SOP, yeah.

$150, yeah, $150 ASP kind of. You mentioned two customer wins for like 20 million units. Is that kind of same starting like first half 28 kind of thing?

Yeah, yeah, it's three customers. So we have VW, we have a large US automaker, and Mahindra for Surround ADAS. With Mahindra, we're the tier one, so it's not 150, it's more than that, it's a few hundreds of dollars because we're not supplying, we're supplying more hardware. Yeah, so this is on track for 2028, 20 million is the lifetime volume of this program. So after, again, maybe three years we'll get to, as I said, between like three and four million units a year right which is which is significant and we I mean we feel very good about this around data's business and as it's again it's kind of eight us evolving there we have a very strong position with you know our top 10 customers or top 10 OEMs yeah we win like more than 90% of the business in aid us there is some competition but it's not something that you know we're it's it's not maybe as such as you have in the more advanced product so we really feel good about it about you know winning the business and delivering products at high volumes with yeah you know the execution which is very crucial having multiple models yeah something that we are used to doing and and that's what we're doing all these years.

Yeah, I want to go back to supervision. I know you have the Volkswagen Porsche ramping. At one point, there is an expectation you would be getting into some of the tier one Japanese OEMs as well. And maybe even try some of the US OEMs. Any thoughts around that? Like how's that progressing? You have significant catalysts here. I said, look at second half 27 and first half 28, and if I start to layer on your supervision and surround ADAS and Robotex and all that. But as you broaden the pipeline, and you go back to some of those opportunities, I guess, yeah.

Yeah, I can say what I said now about ADAS, surround ADAS, is where it's what the OEMs need in terms of regulation and things. We win most of the business, like more than 90 percent but i think for the advanced products and we're talking to you know all oems um there are much more like um you know aspirational uh solutions like oems are still thinking should i do this like internal solution combined with an outsourced solution maybe to get the software from one supplier and the hardware from a different supplier do the integration we haven't seen any of it in you know sop or in production but i think that area takes more time yeah and for the decision making since the asp is also higher the you know what you need to add per every car is higher so there we see maybe more hesitation again more like partial solutions that didn't have execution yet.

Yeah, I think that there's really no change. We still have ongoing discussions with all of our customers. I think it's a good point that these are not products that the OEMs feel like they have to have over the next couple of years. So what we've seen is a lot of fairly ambitious RFQs end up getting kind of like layered down to like very small like maybe one model type of program and I think when you're doing something like that it's it's easier to you know maybe to take a risk you know because you're not like you know threatening kind of production of one of your core models so you know I think we the the you know the big asset that mobile eye has or you one of many but like you know the volkswagen relationship is a huge asset because it's allowing us to take technology and turn it into real products and like once they launch you know and even before they launch you start to be able to show those products you know to other customers and it becomes it all becomes more real so i i think we we feel good about kind of the future um but yeah i think like there's ton you know hasn't been a ton of activity kind of in a ton of there haven't been a ton of like decisions on real programs in those spaces.

Yeah and talking about that in terms of you know some of these ramps have been slower part of it probably has to go with the costs of some of these vehicles are going up too because input costs are going up whether it's memory or what have you. To that point you know how much memory do you guys have in in these systems, whether it's an IQ or a supervision or a surround data, is that a constraint you have? Are you guys on DDR4? Are you moving to DDR5?

Is that part of the holdup in terms of ramping, is that hey, some of the other costs have gone up and so they cannot add some of these incremental costs for a driver-assisted system and so they have to decide, okay, get this thing out for what's reasonable or adding no I I don't view this as the you know main reason for the hesitation for the memory you know our current business for for IQ we don't have any memory items because we deliver the chip and our customers are the one that incorporating the memory but they still need the memory yeah they still need the memory but you know for a supervision we can give example for what we're selling now there has been some price increases to memory uh but we know maybe how to manage it uh you know you need to be on it in terms of ordering in advance and most of it was supported by our customers by uh glee that mostly post our models so we managed to pass that through to the customer so the ram sits on the vehicle and that is running on an ssd or a d ram or a wait there are mapping system, the RAM mapping, is that sitting on a SSD that's procured by the OEM or is that supplied by you?

It's supplied by us, yes, exactly.

But you had to procure that upfront. So there's definitely like incremental cost for the ECUs that we're experiencing for current supervision volume that we were able to pass on to the customer. I think in terms of like the core business, you know, the tens of millions of chips, you know it's our customers that are procuring the memory you know we're compatible with ddr5 unlike the more you know advanced chip generation and you know we haven't seen any impact to production for it so it's I think it's like we're lucky it's an indirect yeah exposure for us you should still take the excuse and raise prices yeah exactly I mean you know in general like I think we you know I'm sure most investors have seen that like you know global production forecasts by a third parties have come down over the last few cycles we haven't seen any kind of actual changes to schedules so you know there's still an uncertainty out of there out there for the second half but so far like demand seems very strong I got it exactly four seconds and I'm going to hit the robotic side and your gross margin so I don't know okay but Maybe I'll start off with the margin side.

Can you talk to what the margin structure is between RoboTaxi, Surrounded As, Supervision? Obviously, they're all higher ASPs, so is that how the margins should be much higher?

Yeah, so I think it's a gross margin. It's really a combination of our products. So you have ADAS, Surrounded As, with the current gross margin of between 60 and 70, like 65%. You have Supervision, Chauffeur, which are higher ASP but it has much hardware content so gross margin are lower around like 40 to 50 percent and Robotexy which is very meaningful in terms of revenue since you have like 60 to 70 thousand dollars a car this is around like 75 percent so it balances out and even more than balance you know the impact of the other product so it's basically a combination of the products what we'll have in the next few years yeah what will ramp more quickly and you know in in terms of the combination of the volumes yeah but that's where we're at and and it's you know we feel like we have a good margin profile and for supervision and and chauffeur we we are very much focused on the ECU to have a second generation for lower cost because of the large hardware content John and And the last question on the robotic side.

This obviously is a lot of focus on physical AI and human robots, et cetera. What's the timeline on this? Like when do you see actual commercial revenue on this acquisition that you guys made, which is, I guess.

We've said that kind of the production intent version of the robot is version four that is targeted for the end of this year. we spend 2027 working on kind of the full sourcing plan and kind of standing up a manufacturing facility with a third party and then we want to get into real production and in 2028 Wow so the 28th conference will have a Dan Galvis robot yeah I mean maybe you'll see it by the end of this year great fantastic guys thank you so much it's been a pleasure absolute pleasure having Moran and Dan here.

Thank you for joining us. Thanks Vijay.