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Earnings call · FY2025 Q2

Nucor Corp (NUE) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Concluded Jul 29, 2025 Audio replay
Jul 29, 2025 56:40 61 turns
Period
FY2025 Q2
Runtime
56:40
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56:40 Audio
Operator

Good morning and welcome to Nucor's second quarter 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent only background noise, and today's call is being recorded. After the speaker's prepared remarks, I'll provide instructions for callers wishing to ask any questions. I'd now like to introduce Jack Sullivan, Vice President, Treasurer, and General Manager of Investor Relations, to begin your call.

Jack Sullivan Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to Nucor's second quarter earnings review and business update. Leading our call today is Leon Topalian, chair, president, and CEO, along with Steve Laxton, executive vice president and CFO. Other members of Nucor's executive team are also here with us today and may participate during the Q&A portion of the call. Yesterday, we posted our second quarter earnings release and investor presentation to Nucor's IR website. We encourage you to access these materials as we will cover portions of them during the call. Today's discussion will include the use of non-GAAP financial measures and forward-looking information within the meaning of securities laws. Actual results may be different than forward-looking statements and involve risks outlined in our safe harbor statement and disclosed in Nucor's SEC filings. The appendix of today's presentation includes supplemental information and disclosures along with the reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures. So with that, let's turn the call over to Leon.

Thanks, Jack. Now I want to begin by thanking our 33,000 Nucor teammates for delivering a solid quarter, both in terms of financial results and our safety performance. Amid all the uncertainty and distractions, you have remained focused on executing our growth strategy and creating value for our shareholders, customers, and communities. And you did it all while setting another all-time safety record for the first half of any year. Thank you for your vigilance and focus and never losing sight of our most important value. Let's continue to carry that momentum into the back half of the year. To recap some of the the second quarter financials, Nucor generated EBITDA of approximately $1.3 billion and earned $2.60 per diluted share. This represents a significant improvement over our first quarter results, driven by higher average selling prices in our steel mill segment and stable realized pricing in higher volumes in our steel product segment. During the quarter, we returned $329 million to Nucor shareholders through dividends and buybacks, bringing our total capital return to shareholders for the first half of the year to $758 million. Capital expenditures for the quarter totaled $954 million, and we remain on track to deploy approximately $3 billion in CapEx for the year. Our team continues to execute well, and I'd like to highlight just a few of our accomplishments for the quarter. Production levels and shipments at our Brandenburg plate mill trended higher for a sixth consecutive quarter. Shipments in June reached another record, helping Brandenburg achieve positive EBITDA for the quarter. Meanwhile, Brandenburg's product development team continues to strengthen its market position with key customers for complex grades of steel plate that we have not been able to produce prior. I'd also like to recognize our entire sheet-making group for shipping nearly 3.1 million tons during the second quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter where the sheet group has set a new shipment record. In particular, I'd like to congratulate our team at Gallatin Sheet Mill in Kentucky for setting a new monthly shipping record during the quarter. On our first quarter earnings call, I mentioned our structural steel backlog reaching historically high levels, and that set us up nicely for strong shipments in the second quarter. Nucor's beam team delivered, shipping over 630,000 tons and generating the highest quarterly earnings for this business since 2022 and the fourth highest of all time. On the growth front, our construction teams continue to make great progress as we near completion of several important capital projects. A rebar micro mill in Lexington, North Carolina recently rolled its first heat and is now in the early stages of ramping up production. And the team in Kingman, Arizona has successfully melted, cast, and rolled several heats out of its new melt shop, and it will be ramping up production throughout the third quarter. For Nucor Towers and Structures, pole production and galvanizing operations in Alabama are set to begin by September, with customer shipments beginning in the fourth quarter. Our Indiana Greenfield project is set to commence full operations by the spring of 2026 with customer shipments beginning in the second quarter. Within sheet, we remain on schedule to complete our coding complex in Crawfordsville, Indiana by the end of 2025 and our galvanizing line in Berkeley, South Carolina by the middle of 2026. And the construction of our new West Virginia sheet mill is nearly 60% complete and remains on track for completion by the end of 2026. A key driver of our quarterly results came from the strong performance of our steel products group. We have grown this business to become the broadest and most diverse portfolio of downstream steel products in North America, allowing Nucor to offer a wide variety of solutions for our customers. For the entire segment, second quarter pre-tax earnings were $392 million, a 28% increase over the adjusted results of the previous quarter. In fact, pre-tax earnings for each of the main product groups comprising this segment were in line with or above Q1 levels. On an LTM basis, the steel product segment accounted for 45% of Nucor's total pre-tax segment earnings with EBITDA margins of approximately 16 percent. Both of these metrics remain significantly higher than their respective pre-pandemic averages. Tariff policy continues to evolve but has been positive for the steel industry overall. We support the administration's recent actions to strengthen the Section 232 program by increasing the tariffs to 50 percent. We also applaud the Commerce Department's decision earlier this year to expand the review of steel derivative products covered by the Section 232 tariffs and for implementing a transparent inclusions process. These steps will help to curb the volume of unfairly traded imports and protect our national security. However, dumped and subsidized imports continue to persist, and the vigorous enforcement of our trade laws is needed now more than ever. Nucor and other domestic producers have been injured by elevated levels of unfairly traded corrosion-resistant imports in recent years and filed trade positions on core imports from 10 countries last September. Nucor is pleased with the preliminary determinations from the U.S. Commerce Department and U.S. International Trade Commission in these investigations, and we anticipate affirmative final determinations from both agencies later this summer and fall. The Commerce Department and ITC have also initiated investigations into rebar imports from four countries, with the ITC issuing an affirmative preliminary injury determination earlier this month. Affirmative determinations in these cases and other trade proceedings are critical to ensuring a level playing field for the steel industry in America. We are optimistic that the administration's vigorous enforcement of our trade laws, and the strengthened Section 232 program will result in a sustained reduction of imports into our market. We're also monitoring the evolving country-specific tariff negotiations and their impact on raw material costs. Nucor's raw material supply chain is advantaged by having a broader set of capabilities than any other steel producer in North America. That diversity, along with our world-class sourcing and logistics teams give us flexibility to source raw materials in a way that optimizes our cost structure and adapts to this highly dynamic situation. Beyond trade policy, we were pleased to see the tax provisions and manufacturing incentives contained in the new legislation signed into law earlier this month. We expect the bill will lead to further economic growth and boost our competitiveness as a nation. It will unleash new investments in steel intensive projects and promote the reshoring of vital manufacturing while enhancing our national security. And as North America's largest and most capable steel products company, Nucor is incredibly well positioned to support this growth. With that, let me turn it over to Steve, who will share additional details about our second quarter performance, the current demand environment for steel and our outlook for the third quarter. Steve?

Thank you, Leon, and thank you all for joining us on the call this morning. During the second quarter, Nucor generated net earnings of $603 million, or $2.60 a share, right at the midpoint of our earnings guidance range. This represents a substantial improvement over the prior quarter adjusted earnings per share of $0.77 and is similar to the reported $2.68 earnings per share during the second quarter of last year. Year-to-date, Nucor's adjusted earnings were $782 million, or $3.37 a share. Our second quarter results included pre-operating and startup cost of approximately $136 million, or $0.45 per share. This is down $34 million compared to the prior quarter and in line with the prior year's second quarter. Turning to the segment-level results for the quarter, the steel mill segment generated $843 million of pre-tax earnings, more than triple that of the prior quarter. Higher average selling prices, particularly in our sheet and plate operations, were the largest drivers of the change in profitability. Total volume for the steel mill segment was in line with prior quarter, as increases in sheet, plate, and beam shipments were offset by lower bar shipments. We continue to see solid and steady booking rates, and our steel mills backlog at the end of the second quarter was up nearly 30 percent over this time last year. To comment briefly on the pricing environment, we would describe it as broadly stable. Our published consumer spot price for HRC has been within 5 percent band of either side of $900 a ton for the past 16 weeks. During this period, we shipped record sheet volumes and our sheet backlog at the end of the second quarter was 15 percent higher than the same time last year. As for rebar and MBQ products, we've recently announced price increases that take our average selling price for both products above the respective 13- and 52-week averages. We continue to see healthy overall demand for long products, and we expect lower rebar imports during the second half of the year. Turning to steel products, as Leon mentioned earlier, we saw another strong performance in this segment. During the second quarter, steel products generated pre-tax earnings of $392 million, up 28% over the prior quarter's adjusted basis. Results were driven by stable realized pricing and higher volumes, leading to our best earnings quarter for this segment since the second quarter of 2024. Similar to steel mills, our backlog levels for the steel product segment remain healthy, up approximately 20% from a year ago and extending into 2026 for some products. We continue to see strong demand as evidenced by robust quoting activity and believe this reflects improved business confidence among our customers servicing the construction and infrastructure markets. In Joyston Deck, we are now seeing pricing for new orders at levels that are approaching our average backlog pricing. As a result, prices and margins in this business are expected to stabilize above pre-pandemic levels by end of the year. Turning to raw material segment, we realized pre-tax earnings of approximately $57 million for the quarter, an increase of approximately 95% over the first quarter. Results were in line with expectations with stable volumes in pricing and lower operating expenses. Moving to the balance sheet, Nucor remains committed to maintaining a strong investment-grade credit profile. Nucor's credit ratings are the highest of any North American steel producer, and we have long believed that our financial strength is a competitive advantage, allowing us to execute our strategy through various phases of the economic cycle. During the quarter, we retired $1 billion in long-term debt with proceeds from our senior notes issued in March. We ended the second quarter with a total debt to capital ratio of approximately 24% in cash of approximately $2.5 billion. Our next substantial maturity is not until 2027, and more than 80 percent of our long-term debt maturities are after 2030. In addition to maintaining a strong balance sheet, a cornerstone of Nucor's capital allocation framework is to provide a meaningful direct return to shareholders. During the second quarter, we returned $329 million to shareholders in the form of dividends and share repurchases. And combined with the first quarter, we've returned $758 million of cash to shareholders, representing nearly 100% of Nucor's year-to-date net earnings. During this same period, we've repurchased approximately 4 million shares at a weighted average value of approximately $124 a share. Leon covered some of the factors impacting our markets, but now I'd like to touch on four of the larger macro themes that are driving demand. First, technology and advanced manufacturing. Since the passage of the CHIPS Act in 2022, we've seen announcements of over 90 technology and advanced manufacturing projects totaling over $450 billion in private investments, and that momentum has accelerated in 2025. These projects take time to move from announcement to construction, but we're seeing increased bidding and new order activity. We're currently supplying steel to eight large semiconductor facilities now under construction, which all require beam, rebar, joist and deck, and other downstream products. Second, infrastructure demand remains strong, driven by funds allocated and now flowing to projects under the IIJA. We've seen notable increases in public transit, highway bridge, and tunnel contract awards, and our bar and plate teams are responding to this demand. Nucor's bar shipments were 13% higher in the first half of the year, while Nucor's plate shipments to the bridge market hit a record in the second quarter and rose 35% for the first half of 2025. We also anticipate higher steel tube demand later this year as contracts progress for unfinished sections of the border wall. Third, energy. In the energy sector, Nucor is seeing exceptional growth in power transmission with the first half shipments to this market up 88% year over year. We've also seen significant increases in steel shipments related to solar and onshore wind projects, and the recently enacted tax policy will likely lead to some incremental pull-ahead tons over the coming year. Additionally, our Brandenburg facility has been certified to supply line pipe for both LNG and oil pipeline projects, opening up new opportunities in this expanding market. Last but not least, data centers. Construction in this market remains particularly strong. According to the Dodge Construction Network, spending from construction starts is projected to grow 18% this year and an additional 26% in 2026. Our beam orders for this segment have increased significantly and serve as a precursor to incremental demand for a variety of downstream products that Nucor supplies. We expect these growing market segments will continue to drive demand for steel and steel products for the foreseeable future. Turning to the third quarter outlook, we expect Nucor's consolidated earnings to be nominally lower than in the second quarter. In the steel mill segment, despite resilient backlogs and stable demand, we expect modest margin compression compared to the second quarter. In both the steel products and raw material segments, earnings are expected to be similar to the second quarter. For steel products, we expect slightly lower profitability and tubular and joist and deck offset by improved performance in other business lines. As we look ahead to the second half of 2025, our expectation is that domestic steel demand will be higher than it was in the second half of 2024, and with the broadest range of capabilities in the North American steel market, we are confident in our ability to create value for our customers and shareholders as we capture a healthy share of that demand. And with that, we'd like to hear from you and answer any questions you may have. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you very much. We now have to open lines for Q&A. If you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. And if you'd like to remove yourself, the line of questioning will be star followed by two. As a reminder, to raise a question will be star followed by one. Our first question comes from Bill Peterson from JPMorgan. Bill, the line is now open.

Bill Peterson Analyst — JPMorgan

Good morning.

Thanks for taking my question um on the steel products you mentioned the margin compression can you break that down for us is that a statement of higher input cost i guess as we think about pricing directionally you know kind of flattish on a blended basis from the second to the third quarter um trying to get a sense before the margin expands in the fourth quarter and on how we should think about the puts and takes yeah bill let me uh kick it off and then maybe i'll ask john holland sorry vp over that group to touch on a few things but i want to begin with uh thanking the men and women of the nucor family this is the safest start to the first half of any year in the history of our company and i couldn't be more proud of how our team continues to generate and take care of one another and our most important value every metric every result that we will talk about today and moving on are generated through those team members and again to see that value exemplified as the safest first half of any year is uh is an incredible incredible achievement so thank you for that the second um you know to your question specifically bill look it's a great question and you know we're talking earlier this morning before we got on the call if we think about the resiliency of non-res construction in the construction market in general that took off really post covet and it has remained robust for a long period of time and we anticipate that remaining robust 24 was not a particularly a great year. But as we look at the strength of their backlog, you're pushing six to nine months out. So really what the nominal adjustment that we see in pricing isn't because the demand drivers are weak, it's the lag effect. And many of those orders were taken in late Q4, early Q1 of this year are now being realized and sold under those pricing. And so in fact, we've just recently announced a price increase last week. So again, the demand drivers for this segment are really robust and we expect them to remain that way again throughout the rest of this year and quite frankly beyond. And so again, it's an incredibly important, strong contributor to our business segment. We're proud of all the groups that make up that family. But again, as we move forward, we see strength in that market.

Yeah, Bill, this is John Hollins. Again, it's very normal for us to have margin expansion and contraction as as we have movements and steel prices Steve pointed to the the joyston deck market and what we expect some of our depth you got to remember we had a dozen different businesses in our downstream portfolio some of those backlogs are nine months out so we have good visibility as to what those margins would look like some of those backlogs are six weeks out so there's a lot of variation in that but I think it's important to note that many of these downstream businesses are custom engineered products that have value-added solutions, and our teams have done an excellent job of separating pricing from movements and raw materials and really redefine the earnings profile of these businesses. And as Leon mentioned, demand remains solid, and we're optimistic about the future of- Thanks for that.

Bill Peterson Analyst — JPMorgan

And also, thanks for highlighting the safety performance, strong results on that. My second question is on the steel mills. And, you know, nice to see utilization trends in the first half of the year. But among the steel products, which are running a relatively lower utilization or set another way, what is your biggest or best opportunities to displace imports as we look ahead to the second half of the year?

Yeah, look, I tell you that that really sits across the board. Our capability set is the most diverse within all North American steel producers so whether we're talking tubular joist deck rebar but there are some opportunities right we're running roughly 85 utilization rates across the uh the steel mill segment so um again there's more opportunities in sheet there's more opportunities in our our plate group we have more opportunities in rebar and some of our long products but again we're we're well positioned to to supply those and again we we don't just simply produce to to stack backlogs up we're producing the orders in in most every case and so we're meeting the demand where it's at and uh again have the flexibility to adapt and adjust very quickly while we're pleased to see what import levels are doing and coming down in that 20 21 percent they're still too high we need to be in the low teens and quite frankly the north american steel industry can supply the needs of what's being required without having those imports come into the united states so we're to continue to advocate for strong fair trade and balanced trade for again illegal imports being dumped and subsidized on the shores of the U.S.

Bill Peterson Analyst — JPMorgan

Thanks Leon and congrats on the strong execution. Appreciate it Bill.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Lawson Winder from Bank of America Securities. Lawson your line is now open.

Lawson Winder Analyst — Bank of America Securities

Thank you operator and good morning Leon, good morning steve um thank you for today's update if i could uh ask about lexington and kingman and those ramp ups congratulations on getting those to the cusp of being uh fully operational could you speak to uh the pre-operating startup costs and in the period by period outlook for those assets as they start contributing to that positively yeah well listen look i'm going to touch on a couple things and then let steve um kick off into the pre-operating startup cost as they move through that startup, but I want to begin with thanking our Lexington, North Carolina

team and that micro mill and their startup and congratulating them on their safety and how hard they've continued to focus on our customers and bring that mill up. We're excited about what this mill is going to do. It's our third micro mill in the fleet alongside Frostproof and Sedalia, and again, it's a market segment we know really well. We're excited about where that's geographically located as well in the Atlantic Corridor. And so, again, we look for great things to come from them as they continue their startup in the Q3 and Q4. And as well at Kingman, Arizona, we're proud of the team that they've started their melt shop up now and will continue to ramp up in that asset. Again, it's geographically positioned incredibly well also in a market that's growing and continues to grow. You know, the other point I'll mention maybe before Steve or Randy may want to share a few additional comments is you're starting to see the move into Nucor's bottom lines throughout the segment of contributors like our team in Nucor Brandenburg and the plate mill and the things that they've done there in ramping up Nucor Gallatin and our sheet mill and their delivery but we've got yet to fully realize the impacts of all of that to the bottom line so Brandenburg is going to continue to ramp Gallatin, Lexington, North Carolina, Kingman, Arizona, or towers and structures plants in Alabama, Indiana, that will start up later this year in the spring of next, as well as the Utah Towers plant that will begin late next year, the Galvines of Crawfordsville and Nucor Berkeley, and finally West Virginia. So you're seeing the start of the bottom line being impacted today, which again will decrease the overhang of the pre-operating and startup cost, but the momentum and the pent-up earnings power of nucor is just now coming online and so over the next months and years i love our strategy our positioning um the customers and capability sets we're going to be able to serve and how that's going to position nucor to achieve the highest highs we've ever achieved and the highest lows so with that steve maybe make a few comments on our pre-operating costs yeah hey hey lawson How are you doing?

The pre-op startup cost came down quite a bit quarter over quarter and Brandenburg team getting to break even more so than, and I think if you're thinking what to model out for the second 140 to 150, 140 to 150 million a quarter range for the back half of the year and Leon highlighted where we are, we're, you know, we're marching through, we're about three-fourths of the way through. he alluded to it, but a little bit later, it'll lag our capital spending.

Lawson Winder Analyst — Bank of America Securities

Thanks for that. That's fantastic, guys. But if I could follow up on Brandenburg, what utilization rate is the asset now currently operating? And then just how do you see that trending for Q3 and Q4?

Yeah, awesome. This is Brad Ford. I'm happy to take that one. First, I'd like to just congratulate that Brandenburg team and really the entire play group for the major step forward in q2 um you know we had record production record shipments um the team achieved some pretty significant reductions in operating expenses and efficiencies and then we also had some key achievements in product development all contributing to that that even a positive q2 um those are all records we expect to continue to break every quarter going forward, right, specifically in Q3 and again in Q4. So we're very proud of that team. You know, one of the things we talk about at Brandenburg versus you talk about capacity utilization is really the story is around the capabilities of that mill and what that brings to the play group. And we saw that play out in some key end-use markets in Q2, specifically in the bridge side. You know, bridge demand has been very, very strong, and over 20 percent of our plate group shipments in Q2 were only Brandenburg sizes. So prior to Brandenburg, tons that we couldn't participate in, customers we couldn't participate with. On the energy side, we saw onshore wind, power transmission, and line pipe all very robust. As we mentioned in the opening comments, Brandenburg was approved by some large line pipe manufacturers. we expect this to be a larger part of our order book in the quarters ahead. So really, it's a story of capability over capacity. And the addition of Brandenburg's capabilities has us extremely well positioned to really be the supplier choice. And we're pretty excited about the balance of this year as we roll into 26.

Lawson Winder Analyst — Bank of America Securities

Thank you very much for that. I appreciate it. Best of luck to you all.

Thanks, boss.

Operator

Thank you very much. As a reminder to raise a question, will be start followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Katja Janky from BMO Capital Markets. Katja, your line is now open.

Katja Jankic Analyst — BMO Capital Markets

Hi, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe going back to the 3Q outlook, specifically to the mill segment. So you expect volumes and pricing to be relatively stable, but also are calling for margin compression. Can you talk a bit more about what's driving that margin compression? expectation?

Yeah, Katja, I'll touch on that. Look, it's a few things. One, if we step back and look at the entire terrorist picture, you know, we certainly looked at that and put some of that into our forecast. So, as we think about the impact to slabs, the impact to raw materials, if the impact of the terrorists to Brazil come into effect on Friday, that still remains to be seen that could have some impact um however i'll touch on that in in a moment but you know that that's a part of it in the second you know part of that forecast is really around again the lag effect we touched on that a few minutes ago with the uh the impact to our product segment where they're realizing um you know that pricing delta that's now flowing through the system that is at lower pricing levels. But again, the drivers and the demand drivers beyond that remain incredibly robust. So as we move into Q3 and beyond, we're going to start realizing those higher selling prices. And again, that will adjust. But those are the two drivers that are impacting why we potentially see nominal adjustment. But again, there's some upside as well if certain things happen. But, you know, I don't want to just leave that overhang there with a comment around the tariffs. You know, as we think about the raw material flexibility that we have, it's as broad and vast as any steel maker in North America. So, Al, maybe just touch on a few of the things that we're doing, the flexibility of our raw materials and why, if, again, Katia, the tariffs go into effect on Friday, why we will not feel the full impact of those to our bottom line.

Sure, Leon, I'd be happy to. Got you. It's Albert. So to unpack a bit what Leon is mentioning there, I'd start with those comments about our raw materials team. In simple terms, we're built for this. This is why we stay in game day shape and we're ready to play right now. And that team is getting it done. This is their time to shine and they are really performing. When we think about Brazil, there's really two key inputs that we buy from Brazil. One is DRI pellets and so as we think about DRI pellets, we've already taken the steps needed to mitigate that 50% tariff from Brazil. And so we've done that through changes to our supply, our global sourcing for those pellets, the mix that we feed those DRI plants. So the DRI issue is shift to pig iron. And I think it's helpful to first put our usage into perspective. So today, Katja, pig iron represents seven to eight percent of our milk across the enterprise if you look back five years or so that would be double that and so one example of this flexibility was the the invasion of ukraine you know at that time russia and ukraine were 50 and we we pivoted very quickly in a very agile fashion uh and never missed a quality spec and never missed a custom pull as we sit here today then with with uh pig iron we would expect to do largely the same thing and pivot our supply and pull the levers that that we have to pull. Some of those are shifting to alternate supply like DRI, like low copper shred. You think about our DRI supply, it's internal, it's stable. Both of our DRI plants are world-class amongst their peers, absolutely world-class, and have become a top performer for the supply chain for our steel mills. The other is low copper shred. That's not directly an HQ, high-quality metallic substitute, but it's part of that picture, and we've grown significantly in low-copper shred production, and we expect to grow more into the future. So I just summarize our positioning in this way, that this environment, it's very challenging, and it's very fluid, but it's exactly the type of environment that we've built this team to handle, and they're executing that strategy with skill and precision, and it just gives us other options that other producers don't have.

Katja Jankic Analyst — BMO Capital Markets

That's super helpful. And just to confirm, basically what I'm hearing is that you're preparing for the 50% tariffs from Brazil to go into effect on August 1st. So if they actually do not go into effect, there's upside to your current expectations. Is that fair?

Yeah, look, I think there's a lot of variables that could create some upside. But again, And what our jobs are to make sure we provide a realistic forecast for you to estimate what we think the earnings are going to be. And so, again, let's talk in a week and we'll let you know whether or not those things come to pass. So until that time, yeah, I don't want to speculate on what could be. But we've built our models accordingly and, again, to put the risk mitigators there in place so that, again, we can pivot very quickly should they come to pass.

Katja Jankic Analyst — BMO Capital Markets

Perfect. Thank you. I'll hop back into the queue.

Operator

Thank you, Chachi. Thank you so much. Our next question comes from Tristan Gressa from BMP Paribas. Tristan, your line is not open.

Tristan Gresser Analyst — BNP Paribas

Yes, hi. Thank you for taking my questions. Just a quick follow-up on the raw material cost. Have you seen any tariff-led costs already in Q2 on the BRI buying or whatever, anything? Was there anything in the average cost in Q2?

No, we did not, Tristan, no. All right.

Tristan Gresser Analyst — BNP Paribas

That's clear. And then my second question, I think in your presentation you you talk about the beautiful potential impact. Could you maybe go a bit more in details and if you've been able to quantify it and time those impacts, that would be appreciated. And maybe just the last question on the working capital. Look, you had a big build in H1.

I'm not sure if that's also some raw material inventory strategy ahead of the tariffs. uh if you can share any type of look into h2 for your working capital that'd be great as well thank you okay i i certainly got the front end of the question i'm not sure i got the back end but i'll let steve answer that if look if i i begin from the macro the one big beautiful bill uh i i think certainty certainly comes into play certainty of what the corporate tax rate is going to be and and again now we can begin building you know certain things out i think the other incentives for reshoring are certainly there. And, again, when you think about reshoring, Nucor sits at the tip of the spear of all of that. We're the best, most diverse, well-positioned steel company to provide everything that's going in the ground and above. And so, again, our diversity of range of capabilities offers incredible opportunities. You know, I don't know if Brad mentioned it a few minutes ago, but when you think about Brandenburg and its offering today, It is the widest, heaviest, broadest range of plate-capable products in the United States. And so now, as we think about long-term partnerships with defense, military applications, and beyond, it offers great exposure and, again, pull-through for other products. So within that bill, you see $47 billion for funding for the border wall that we, again, sit at the ready, poised, not only because we have it, but because we did it prior in the first administration. We've got $29 billion slated for shipbuilding, again, back to Brandenburg, and the capability set in our plate ranges. $150 billion in defense spending that, again, we see sit in a very enviable position to be poised to supply all of that. And then again, if I pull back one one layer one level higher from the the bill itself over the last six months you've seen commitments from companies um that are in the top fortune 50 of this nation that about announced two trillion dollars of investment into the united states of america again nucor sits incredibly well positioned uh to to do everything from the data centers the energy the markets the clean in clean manufacturing, the advanced manufacturing, all of those areas, again, from shipbuilding to bridges to defense and military, again, I think are wonderful pull-throughs. And again, I think this bill is going to be very advantageous for the steel industry, but quite frankly, manufacturing as a whole.

Yeah. Hey, Tristan, this is Steve. And just to address the last and a large factor working capital build is a large factor in cash flows for the first half of the year. You know, we had roughly $20 million of capital usage in our operating second quarter alone. Given the price trends and the volume trends, it sets up really well as a very constructive pivot toward the second half of the year where we expect a free cash flow profile, and that's driven in part by the working capital usage in the first 10% in the market. All right, that's for you.

Tristan Gresser Analyst — BNP Paribas

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you so much. As a reminder, to raise a question will be star followed by one on the telephone keypad now. And if you'd like to remove your cell phone line and questioning, it will be star followed by two. Our next question comes from Phil Gibbs from KeyBank. Phil, your line is now open. Hey, good morning.

Good morning, Phil.

Phil Gibbs Analyst — KeyBank

STICKING WITH THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL QUESTION, STEVE, ARE THERE ANY DIRECT TAX BENEFITS TO YOU ALL IN THE BACK HALF OF THE YEAR FOR 2026?

YEAH, HEY, PHIL. ACTUALLY, IT'S RELATIVELY LIMITED. THE CONSTRUCT OF THAT BILL IS, IF YOU WILL, IN THAT MANY OF OUR PROJECTS ARE THE LARGEST SPEND AND THE ABILITY TO ACCELERATE that into you know expensing that right up front rather than advertising it over seven years so we'll have some very that regard but but maybe not as large as spending okay and then I have one follow-up just on the cost side so the the slab piece you buy I think you buy foreign slab for

Phil Gibbs Analyst — KeyBank

for CSI in that in that business on the west coast so my my baseline assumption is that business start to see some some higher cost in in the third quarter i think that's what you may have been alluding to on on uh on the earlier comments and then secondly just uh maybe maybe give us a view of what you're seeing on just your own energy and electricity cost side and how those things are trending overall thank you yeah look phil a few things and yes is is the short answer the the tariffs on slabs have already been taken you know already are in effect um and so that that change

is already upon us but again noah hanners and the sheet group continue to do a great job we have not unlike our raw materials the incredible flexibility to pivot and again self-supply if we chose but no you want to just touch base on a few of the things that you and your teams are doing there to uh again mitigate some of this impact yeah just just a couple small things to add here.

One, we, as Leon mentioned, and as you see in our raw material strategy, we have the ability to go source anywhere in the world and domestically in our team. And they're really adept at finding us the lowest cost solution. So while we do have some exposure to the Brazilian tariff, and you see a little bit of that compression in our outlook on third quarter is due to that tariff impact to Brazil, we also have the ability to self-supply. We're shipping their internal finished hot roll tons that CSI is then able to transform at very competitive cost. And then we are able to source from other sources internationally at very competitive costs. So our team's doing an awesome job managing the impact of the tariffs, and we're able to continue to serve the West Coast market.

Yeah, Phil, just to wrap up, energy costs are up a little bit year over year.

Phil Gibbs Analyst — KeyBank

Thanks very much. Good work.

Operator

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mike Karras from Goldman Sachs. Mike, your line is now open.

Mike Karnosh Analyst — Goldman Sachs

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. If we look at the steel products segment, what would you guys call out as potential gaps in that portfolio? And maybe speak to some examples of what type of verticals could bring material synergies to the table.

Yeah, Mike, look, again, as John had mentioned earlier, that group is comprised of about 12 different businesses from overhead doors or insulated metal panels or choice and deck or building systems. And I would tell you, almost across the board, we're seeing either flat or improving conditions. So, again, I would tell you there's really not a lot or there's no low spots to call out. Again, there's some lag in terms of realized margins in net earnings that we're going to see flow through into Q3 and beyond. But again, if we go back six, seven, eight years, that group as a whole represented about 15 percent of Nucor's overall net earnings. Today, that's pushing closer to 45, 46 percent of our overall net earnings. And again, as you think about the core build out of our steelmaking capacity, those dollars are going to continue to shift into our adjacencies, expand beyond, and all those sit under this products bucket as well. So that growth for Nucor is going to continue to grow in that area. So I would tell you we're excited about that, our internal as well as the external forecast in almost every one of those segments are showing improving conditions.

Yeah, Mike, maybe I'll add, if you go back to pre-COVID levels of downstream segment, you know, we're doing 9% or 10% EBITDA at that time, and now we're doing, you know, fourth quarter. And I think that speaks to what capital going forward, which is about what gaps are in the portfolio that improve our margins, improve free cash flows, and offer a wider range of solutions in the marketplace and fit our business model and unfold them into our board. I'll tell you the specifics. We will keep markets.

Mike Karnosh Analyst — Goldman Sachs

No, that's very helpful. I guess in the spirit of full disclosure, I was looking at slide number six where you talked about the evolution of the business. And I was just trying to make sure I understood that future. Was that because, you know, you were just making the best better?

Or did you not feel you had enough to fight with already? and it sounds like it was the uh the former uh that's that's really all i had guys i mean you've answered a lot of my questions already so i'll i'll get back in the queue thank you mike appreciate that and and yes your your comment about the the former is accurate it is continuing to pour more arrows in our quiver to deliver more capabilities for our customer sets thank you very much as a reminder to raise a question will be star followed by one on your telephone keypad.

Operator

Our next question comes from Carlos Diaba from Morgan Stanley. Carlos your line is now open.

Carlos De Alba Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Yeah thank you. Good morning everyone. I just wanted to explore a little bit more the margin compression expected in the steel mills in the third quarter. Can you provide maybe some color by different products? Sheet, plate, bars, beams. Are there any of those products that you would highlight where you expect the biggest margin compression? Maybe you see some margin expansion in some of them. That would be great.

Yeah, Carlos. Look, we touched on that a little bit a few moments ago. I think the potential for some pressure in flats, sheet in particular, could impact the earnings segment in Q3. And that's why, Again, we've highlighted that. We touched on that. Part of that is what Noah just mentioned a few moments ago regarding the slabs coming in from Brazil. So, again, we have some mitigation strategies already being worked and put in place, which could mean we supply self-supply there through our own sheet mills. And again, we have a very adaptive capability set, but again, that's one area. But as we talk about that, yeah, I think there's a ton of upside as we think about the potential continued growth and what Brandenburg's doing in the playgroup, what John and the team are doing in products, what Randy and his group are doing in our long products and in Rebar and MBQ. You know, we didn't talk about it on this call, but our bean mills in both Arkansas and Berkeley are performing at near historic highs. Their backlogs are at near historic highs. And all of that backlog, like hundreds of thousands of tons, is actual orders. They don't produce anything for stock. Every one of those are direct, quotable, and billable order. And so that's going to continue to fuel Nucor's earnings power. And, again, so there's a lot of segments that we're very excited about. Again, the megatrends across the U.S., the startup next month of our Towers and Structures plant gives us incredible excitement, again, to be able to move into that market. And then by early spring, the second plant, and late next year, the third. So, again, there's a number of different elements here that our investment strategy that we deliberately and focused on five years ago are beginning to pay those dividends today. And the investments that are just beginning to start up now are going to continue to pay for the next 20, 30, 40 years.

Carlos De Alba Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Great. Thank you, Leon. And maybe just to, we're assuming on bars and maybe beams, but bars, you mentioned the price increases in BQ and rebar. Would you expect margin expansion in the bar business and maybe in the beams as well?

I'll touch on beams and then let Randy touch, Randy Spicer, our EVP over our bar products, touch on. But look, as we think about the opportunity for longs, man, it's significant. Again, it's an area we've played in for a long time. We have a great customer base there. We have an incredible market share as well in beans. But that mill is run, you know, at 70-ish percent of capacity for a long time, Carlos. So we have a lot of opportunity and upside there. At the same time, it is one of the strongest profit generators in the entire company and has been consistently for a long period of time. And so we couldn't be more excited about the work that they're doing, how they look to continue to expand those margins. And again, yes, I do think there's opportunity in the beam side. Randy, why don't you touch on the longs and bar and MBQ?

Yeah, thank you, Leon Carlos. Thank you for the question. Definitely the same, I would say, on the bar side. the momentum is we have continued to see robust order entry across all of our regions as we start looking again the key in markets as we've talked about several on the call you know the infrastructure work again continued big projects with the chip plant warehouses and data centers the support that we get from our downstream businesses has been just just tremendous when you look at the The macro signals, the diagram momentum index are showing up 20% on a year, which again is letting us know there are even more projects that are coming into the planning phases. So when we look at our long products, our backlogs are at multi-year highs, and our lead times continue to extend. So we are very confident in a very strong second half.

Carlos De Alba Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Thank you very much. All the best.

Operator

Thanks, Carlos.

Operator

Thank you very much. our next question comes from alex hacking from city alex your line is now open yeah good morning leon and team apologize i missed the first couple of minutes of the call but just wanted to check the capex guidance is unchanged at 3 billion and therefore we should expect um a pretty significant decline in 2h and then just as a follow-up if i look at slide five all the projects nearing completion you know beyond that you've got the sheet mill you've got the Utah Towers, the Pacific Northwest Rebar Mill. Is there anything else that I'm missing that's kind of coming beyond what's on slide five?

Yeah, Alex, it was a riveting couple of minutes, and so we'll catch you up very quickly. But yeah, you touched on most of them. A couple that I would add to that list are two galvanizing lines at Crawfordsville, Indiana, as well as Nucor Berkeley that will come online next year. you know the third towers plan in utah as well next year and so again we're we're starting to see the contributions from the investments that were made several years ago like brandon burr gallatin and now kingman and lexington are in startup mode now commissioning is done and now their uh their quest is to uh ramp those facilities up serving our customer base to continue to generate stronger sustainable less volatile earnings for our shareholders and uh you know for for the the the future so yeah as we see that pent-up earnings power is starting to

flow through and will continue over the next couple years but those are the couple i would add that uh that you didn't call out hey alex this is uh dave smiliski yeah and and alex your your math and combined with um with a little bit less working capital use we should see cash flow thank you thank you very much we currently have no further questions in the queue so i'd like to

hand back to leon tapalian for any further remarks well thank you for joining us again today and i'd like to thank our new core team for delivering an incredible first half of the year regarding safety as well as our solid financial performance i'd like to thank our customers for the trust that you place in us with each and every order. And finally, thank you to our investors for the trust that you place in us with your valuable shareholder capital. Thank you for your interest in Nucor and have a great day.

Operator

As we conclude today's call, we'd like to thank everyone for joining. You might disconnect your lines.

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