ATCO Ltd. (ACO-X) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 results conference call and webcast for ADCO Limited. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode and the conference is being recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To join the question queue, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. You'll hear a tone acknowledging your request. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may reach an operator by pressing star then zero. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Colin Jackson, Senior Vice President, Financial Operations. Please go ahead Mr. Jackson.

Thank you and good morning everyone. We are pleased you could join us for ACCO's fourth quarter 2025 conference call. On the line today we have Katie Patrick, Chief Financial and Investment Officer, and Adam Beattie, President of ACCO Structures. Before we move into today's remarks, I would like to take a moment to acknowledge the numerous traditional territories and homelands on which our global facilities are located. Today, I am speaking to you from our ACCO Park Head Office in Calgary, which is located in the Treaty 7 region. This is the ancestral territory of the Blackfoot Confederacy, comprised of the Siksika, the Kainai, and the Begani Nations, the Tsutena Nation, and the Stony Nakoda Nations, which includes the Chinniki, Bearspaw, and Good Stony First Nations. I also want to recognize that the City of Calgary is home to the Métis Nation of Alberta, Districts five and six. We honor and respect the diverse history, languages, ceremonies, and culture of the Indigenous peoples who call these areas home. Today's remarks will include forward-looking statements that are subject to important risks and uncertainties. For more information on these risks and uncertainties, please refer to our filings with the Canadian Securities regulators. During today's presentation, we may refer to certain non-GAAP and other financial measures, including adjusted earnings and adjusted EBITDA. These measures do not have any standardized meaning under IFRS, and as a result, they may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. And now, I'll turn the call over to Katie for her opening remarks.

Thanks Colin and good morning everyone. Thank you all for joining us today. Can I just say what an incredible year ATCO had in 2025. In the face of so much geopolitical and economic uncertainty, we achieved 8% year-over-year earnings growth with all of our segments delivering growth. I know I've spoken about this before, but I want to take a moment and discuss ATCO's investment portfolio and the strategy we are pursuing that has led to our continued success. Our globally diversified portfolio focuses on the essential services space, tackling the world's most urgent challenges in housing, defence, energy, and our complementary investments that align with our long-term growth plans. Looking at the global landscape today, I think we are incredibly well positioned to capitalize on core macroeconomic trends. specifically we are seeing record demand for our modular housing capabilities which adam will touch on later in defense we remain leaders serving communities in the north and supporting canada's defense sector we are ready to maximize this positive momentum in 2026 within energy abco's majority ownership of canadian utilities provides exposure to both regulated and non-regulated energy assets. And lastly, on investments, we maintain a 40% ownership of Neltume Ports along with our retail energy business and other complementary investments tied to the essential services space. Combined, these business segments drive growth for our total portfolio, generating stable earnings and dividends for our share owners. For the Atco's portfolio strategy is our focus on a long-term sustainable dividend and continuing our status as a dividend queen. We think about our dividend resiliency by bifurcating our portfolio to balance yield and long-term growth. To that end, we focus on foundational investments, which you see at the bottom of the triangle on the slide, which drive stable and reliable cash flow and earnings for the entire portfolio. Value investments in the middle, which provide a balance between cash yield and growth. They will have some cyclicality, but generally have the ability to drive better returns. And at the top, we have growth investments. These businesses have less ability to contribute to the current dividend due to their need for growth capital, but they provide an opportunity to deliver higher-than-utility growth while delivering diversification for the overall portfolio. We recently announced another year of increases to our dividend, marking our 33rd year of consecutive dividend increases. Now, moving to our consolidated results for 2025, it's evident that our portfolio strategy that I just spoke to is working. ACCO had a strong year, achieving adjusted earnings of $518 million in 2025, or $4.61 per share, up $37 million and 8% year-over-year. As I mentioned, all of our segments delivered earnings growth in 2025. These results are reflective of the discipline and commitment to our long-term strategy. Aqua Structures and Logistics Adjusted Earnings increased $17 million year-over-year to $121 million. Higher adjusted earnings for full year 2025 were driven by strategic expansion in the United States, successfully leveraging newly acquired manufacturing facilities in Canada to expand our geographic footprint, including into Central Canada, and growth from permanent modular construction, including increased activity across the housing continuum. ACCO Structures and Logistics is well-positioned for the year ahead, given its extensive experience supporting the defense sector and its ability to respond quickly in crisis events. Our knowledge and skills are evidenced by the United States Air Force's renewal of our Alaska radar system contract in the north. We are also one of only two Canadian companies to secure a position on the U.S. Navy's Worldwide Expeditionary Multiple Award contract, which allows the team to bid and win task orders under this $20 billion program. As shown on the graph, ACCO Investments reported $52 million in earnings for the year, up $15 million year over year. This growth was largely driven by Naltume Ports, which achieved $35 million of earnings for the year. The business saw favorable cargo mix and improved margins across its operations. Other investments, which includes Acto Land and Development, Ashcor, and Acto Energy, also drove earnings and was up $14 million year-over-year. Looking at the cash flows for our standalone Acto businesses, which excludes Canadian utilities, we reported cash flow from operating activities of $423 million for the full year 2025, up over 50% year-over-year. This internally generated cash supports our capital plan and future growth within the Acto standalone businesses, as well as our continued dividend growth. With that, I will now pass the call over to Adam to discuss our Acto Structures business and the exciting growth they continue to deliver for the Acto portfolio.

Thank you, Katie, and a very good morning to everyone. I am pleased to share that Acto Structures delivered another strong quarter, representing the 14-strike quarter in a row of year-over-year adjusted earnings growth. In 2025, ACCO Structures and Logistics experienced a record year of growth and milestones achieved, including generating $121 million in adjusted earnings. We continue to build on our core asset base in our industrial business lives, increasing our rental fleet base while maintaining targeted metrics with average rental rate and utilisation. We have also successfully secured new sale projects, including a major workforce housing project, the Stibnight Gold Project for Perpetual Resources in Idaho, the United States, as well as the rebid contract to provide operations and maintenance services for the Alaska radar system, which Katie touched on earlier. our scale of operations continues to increase continue to increase in 2025 now with 44 branches and 13 manufacturing locations in key global economic hubs these expanded locations have strategically supported atco structures to deliver consistent earnings growth and extend their operational reach when compared to our peers our demonstrated track record and vertically integrated model of providing manufacturing through to site construction allows ACO structures to offer a variety of modular solutions and to execute both large and small projects in all of our locations. This has been key to increasing our customer base. Further, our numerous income streams stemming from a mix of products and services including reliable rental income from our fleet allows us to pursue new project opportunities and capture market share globally. Our proven performance through increasing our global fleet size and maintaining or improving key metrics and strategic market penetration, particularly in new geographies like the US, has established us as a large-scale fleet operator that provides a distinct competitive advantage in supplying products and services globally. Atco Structures is a market leader, particularly in Canada, with modular solutions that can service the whole housing continuum, from supportive housing to attainable rentals and market housing rental or ownership. When we compare Atco's modern factory-built modular capabilities to similar conventional wood frame housing projects, we were able to build it three times faster. This reinforces our proven ability to deliver efficient, high-quality, affordable housing solutions sooner. We have demonstrated that we have the infrastructure, capabilities and product solutions governments and industry needs to accelerate housing supply. On that, I want to highlight some of our recent successes within the structures portfolio. Our continued performance of delivering large-scale modular projects globally and our proven track record to secure a new pipeline of work in our industrial, commercial and residential markets has led to the following successes. We announced our largest dollar value contract ever in the US, the Stibnight Gold Project. Manufacturing has begun for this 1,000-plus-person turnkey worker accommodation village and off-site compounds. Stibknight will be a key driver for earnings in 2026, with planned site installation expected in the second half of this year. We also completed a 14-module, two-storey transportation centre, over 5,000 square feet in size just south of Seattle, Washington. In Ontario, we developed a 47-unit turnkey modular transitional housing complex. Incorporated into the residence is a community hub with a link joining the two buildings. We also completed a permanent modular construction project with Attainable Homes Calgary, delivering a landmark six-storey 84-unit affordable housing building. during 2025 we continue to increase our capability in permanent modular construction and housing following the acquisitions and integration of triple m housing and nrb modular solutions we are successfully delivering our highest number of permanent modular projects in multiple jurisdictions as we look ahead our teams remain focused on executing the strong pipeline of opportunities across our operating geographies. In Q2 2026, we will be opening our expanded manufacturing facility in Grimsby, Ontario, doubling our production capacity to support all three markets, industrial, commercial and residential. In Canada, the latest federal budget includes over $115 billion of planned federal infrastructure investment and over over $80 billion of planned defence spending over the next five years, an opportunity for ATCO structures to capitalise on. Further, these funding commitments align with the broader ATCO portfolio, which, as Katie mentioned, focuses on the essential service space, including housing, defence and energy. We also see potential with the Trade Diversification Corridors Fund as large infrastructure build-outs often require temporary and permanent housing accommodations for employees during the construction phase and when facilities become operational. not to mention the government's priority list of projects of national importance as seen on this slide which align with our operating capabilities across the structures and logistics portfolios beyond this there continues to be a significant focus on building additional homes that are not only affordable but also of high quality and with an expedited delivery objective as i previously spoke to, our areas of expertise and geographic footprint have us well positioned for these future opportunities. We have evolved our operations through strategic, organic and inorganic initiatives, diversifying our market-leading position in permanent modular construction for both commercial and residential modular solutions, while continuing to grow and deliver results through our industrial business lines. As modular products gain wider acceptance as a solution to the housing supply shortage, we expect to generate a larger portion of our earnings growth from our permanent modular construction offerings. Although this may change the margin profile of our business, we expect that growth within our permanent modular offerings will drive sustainable earnings for the portfolio going forward. Now outside of Canada, we are advantageously positioned to capture new opportunities in other markets, including Australia, Chile, Mexico and the United States. In 2025, we added a new manufacturing location in Brisbane, Queensland, which allowed us to increase our manufacturing capacity in the region, including continued fleet expansion. In Chile, we see momentum around new mining sector projects, specifically in lithium, gold and copper. Of note, the sector is experiencing its highest level of investment activity in more than a decade. In Mexico, while a smaller portion of our portfolio, we have strong established relationships that we continue to support. Mexico is experiencing a renewed momentum for critical minerals, and we remain strategically situated to support any resource sector build-out. And in the US, we have experienced considerable growth, and we continue to see our opportunities in this region accelerating. I want to end by reiterating our modular service capabilities and our competitive advantages versus our peers. ACCO Structures is committed to delivering exceptional modular building solutions that cater to the diverse needs and environments we operate in. Our key strategic advantages include our large and geographically diverse asset base with manufacturing capabilities located in close proximity to key economic hubs. Established and increasing customer relationships tied to proven brand and reputation supported by scale and fleet mix and our ability to quickly provide customised solutions to project needs. Design, engineering and manufacturing capabilities that provides clients advanced modular solutions beyond just product alone, producing overall project certainty, quality and consistency in a diverse array of products. And a proven track record in completing projects both small and large on time and on budget. As you can see on this slide, where we do have competition, we have greater and more diverse capabilities than any single competitor. With our innovative designs and engineering, in-house manufacturing, superior quality and unparalleled service for our customers, we have established ourselves as a leader in turning innovation into delivery, Moving Modular, delivered by ACCO as a growing and necessary alternative and an accelerator to mainstream construction. With that, I'd like to thank the amazing people within ACCO Structures and Logistics. Their dedication and industry-leading capabilities have been key to our success. And I'll now pass the call back over to Katie.

Thank you, Adam. As evidence in our results this past year, our diversified portfolio of investments continues to deliver a growing earnings profile. With Adam highlighting the growth within structures and its competitive advantages compared to peers, we continue to believe, I'm just going to jump off script and highlight my last point, which is that we still think that EcoStructures has a lot of value yet to come in the market. And you can see on the slide that, you know, there could be potentially up to $2 billion of value that we are still missing from that. So, I think we'll end it there and just turn it over to questions, and hopefully our line will stay connected.

We'll jump to questions. If you could limit yourself to two questions. If you have additional questions, please feel free to join the queue. I'll now turn it back to Gaylene to go to questions.

Thank you. To join the question queue, you may press star then 1 on your telephone keypad. You'll hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then 2. Our first question is from John Mould with TD Cullen. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning. Maybe just going back to the broader housing opportunity for structures, you highlighted $100 billion of federal housing initiatives. How quickly are you hoping to see some of that headline investment flow into a step up in demand for your housing product and then a corresponding increase in your earnings coming from that tail end more specifically?

Yeah, thank you, John. Look, it's certainly obviously a large number around the federal funding commitment to housing and on top of that is obviously an increased private sector momentum towards looking at modular as a housing and an accelerated or alternative housing solution so we estimate that the the modular housing market within Canada specifically is around four to six percent of the total market and we feel that the percentage of overall modular to service that market will increase as it becomes a more accepted and prioritized solution and we know the housing statistics are around 3.5 million houses per annum over the next five five years so realistically we think it will progressively these projects have a longer cycle so we realistically think by the middle of this year we'll see a lot more momentum in terms of housing prioritization or modular projects being released we've already seen the federal government release a number of rfps around housing solutions that particularly specifically reference modern methods of construction of which modular is a key component on. So we think certainly this year we'll start seeing momentum gain and likely that will increase into the future years.

Okay, thanks for that. Then maybe turning to Frontex, I appreciate that it's integrated into the broader structures and logistics business, but it did slip into negative earnings again in Q425. How should we think about the earnings power of the Frontex segment going forward?

Yeah, I mean, I think it's, you know, Frontex, you know, had some challenge contracts that we have now resolved over the past year and a half. So I think, generally speaking, there's a bit of seasonality within the Frontex businesses, particularly around the camps. So you'll see lower occupancy level in the camps during that fourth quarter often. So there was nothing unexpected about the results in the fourth quarter. But generally speaking, you know, they have stabilized their earnings profile on a yearly basis. And I think, you know, we are very positive around the momentum behind some of the defense spending that we're seeing. And so they could definitely benefit from some of that in their forward outlook.

Okay, thanks for that. I'll get back in the queue.

The next question is from Mark Jarvie with CIBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks. Adam, I think in your comments you were implying that modular might have slightly lower margins. Maybe I misunderstood that, but you clarified that. And then was the message, though, that with top-line growth, even if the business mix was a little bit more lower margin in 26, you'd still see positive earnings growth in structures and logistics?

Yes. Simple answer. Hi, Mark. Yes, the margin is lighter on permanent modular construction. The cycle's slower, but yes, we still foresee growth across the year.

How does the margin compare versus where the business has been in the last several quarters? And then I guess top line growth, is there still the opportunity to drive double digit top line growth in 26 and 27?

Certainly the opportunities there. I think if I look at relative to starting of last year, I think the momentum behind core industries or markets that we are well positioned in show a lot of tailwinds behind what will roll out. So sometimes these federal funding plans take a little bit of time to hit the road, but certainly the commitments that we're seeing in my history in the industry, the notification and the specific call out of modular in multiple jurisdictions across multiple market segments is very encouraging.

And then just in terms of margin expectation for 2026, what might it be on a blended basis versus 2025?

We don't provide guidance, but I think you can see our momentum that we've had over the last few years should give you some good indication there.

Okay, thanks.

Next question is from Maurice Choi with RBC. Please go ahead.

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. It's about to touch on the global workforce housing business. The number of units there came down below 2,000 in Q4 versus about 2,400 over the last nine months in 2025, sort of the first nine months. You mentioned that this reduction in the fleet is partly because some of these units are underutilized. I could just elaborate a little bit more what drove you to that decision and take one step further. Is there more to come? You've obviously got a good cash flow generation here, X, you've made that clear on the slide. So it doesn't feel like this is a funding reason for why these dispositions are being made.

Yeah, definitely. Nice to hear from you, Maurice. If you look at the workforce housing market, it does, when you see that product move, it comes back in large chunks and goes out in large chunks. So what we do is we strategically position the scale of the size of our fleets in response to those short term cycle ebbs and flows. So what I think you'll see moving into this year is that we're actually currently in the process of quite a big addition to our workforce housing fleet because we see some quite good market sentiment around the opportunities that will particularly be coming forward in Canada in probably the middle back half of this year and also in Australia. So you'll probably see in 2026 a bit of a rebuild and reposition locationally of where that workforce housing asset is. And we're very good at just keeping responsive to the market in those situations as it moves.

Understood. And if I could just touch on Nelto Me Ports, a little bit of a good quarter here, $10 million, which really is solid, versus the $4 million to $6 million that we generally expect from the business. I was wondering if the positive momentum you've seen in Q4 is a sustainable step change, or is there something to read from this Guatemala stake acquisition that you've acquired?

Yeah, so thanks, Maurice. I think the one thing to point out, Neltoome is having a lot of positive momentum. We're making new investments. You know, our Vancouver-Washington port is well underway, and the smaller acquisition in Guatemala is positive news. I would just point out, you know, we're pretty explicit in our disclosure that in the quarter we did have $4 million of non-recurring items. We undertook a salvage operation in Uruguay that had some beneficial earnings uptick for the quarter, but not necessarily something that will be repeatable on a quarter-on-quarter basis.

And I guess just to wrap it all up, it sounds like given your strong cash regeneration, a lot of your multi-year outlook in terms of cash deployment, is it fair to say that substantially all of that is going to go to SNL or are we shoring it up for other opportunities?

I mean, I think we will definitely look to deploy the capital to the best use that we see available at the time. Right now, as Adam spoke about, we have a lot of positive momentum and places that we could deploy capital in the structures business. But equally, there could be opportunities that come up in some of our complementary investments or through our ports investments. So we will make those decisions as we move forward. But as with historically, structures and logistics does take a decent amount of that capital, and that's great because they've done some great growth.

Thank you.

The next question is from Ben Tham with BMO. Please go ahead.

Hi, thanks, Morgan. I wanted to go back to the housing angle and the modular structure opportunity for you. Can you comment on the earnings trend in that area of growth? What percent of S&M earnings do you think it can make up the next five years? And maybe just a very high level of the competitive dynamics of that segmented market?

Yeah, I won't give a breakdown in terms of the percentage there, Ben, for the future. But certainly the competitive dynamics in the market, we think we're very well placed. we're probably we well we are the largest modular housing manufacturer within Canada we've probably got the most active project of projects of any competitor in that field we have the most diverse product offerings and we have manufacturing now located in multiple provinces. So our ability to deliver housing solutions both across the full nation and across a diversity of product mix that service the housing demand is quite extensive. And so we feel that our footprint is very advantageous. We think our project delivery models are very strong and And we think it's a good basis for future growth and not only – and that's long-term future growth as well as we see some of the housing commitments. So a number of years look ahead in terms of how that will be solutioned.

Okay, got it. And my follow-up to say it's the same topic. There's been articles around the Canadian forces in Canada needing housing. Is that just limited to the federal agency on that opportunity, or is CanACO participate some way through housing or maintenance services?

It's a significant opportunity. If you look at that, that's $3.7 billion of housing commitments. In their releases, they've specifically called out modern methods of construction, modular specifically. So we do think that that's a significant opportunity for us, that announcement yesterday or the day before. So that'll certainly be a target and something that we'll be looking at pursuing. And we think we've got a lot of potential to be a viable provider of those solutions. And Modular will be, we believe, will be a core component of that solution, hopefully.

Okay, understood. Thank you.

This concludes the question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Colin Jackson for any closing remarks.

Thank you, Gaylene. Thank you for participating. We really appreciate your interest in ACCO and we look forward to speaking with you again soon.

This brings to a close today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.