Hims & Hers Health (HIMS $27.71 -4.87%) reports Q3 2026 results on Monday, November 9, after the market closes, with the call at 5:00 p.m. ET. The stock goes into the print at $27.71, down 15% this year, and it fell the day after each of its last four reports, by 3.6%, 0.3%, 14.1% and 4.0%. This is the first quarter with a full three months of Eucalyptus, the Australian telehealth company Hims & Hers bought on June 1, and the first guide that includes it.
We rebuilt the quarter from the filings and the Q2 call, one piece at a time: US revenue, the international business Hims & Hers already had, and Eucalyptus. Our answer is a quarter in line with consensus and the top half of guidance, with adjusted EBITDA a little above the midpoint. The harder test is Q4. Consensus for Q4 sits above what the full-year guide implies, and the company has stopped beating its own revenue guide by much.
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Why Q3 should land in line
Hims & Hers gives one quarter of revenue guidance at a time. Over the last four quarters it landed close to the top of that guide, not far above it. Q2 looks like a big beat, but the Q2 guide excluded Eucalyptus, and without its first month Q2 revenue was about $713M, 1.9% above the top of the range.
| Quarter | Revenue guide | Reported revenue | vs top of guide | Adjusted EBITDA guide | Reported adjusted EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $570M to $590M | $599.0M | 1.5% | $60M to $70M | $78.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $605M to $625M | $617.8M | -1.2% | $55M to $65M | $66.3M |
| Q1 2026 | $600M to $625M | $608.1M | -2.7% | $35M to $55M | $44.3M |
| Q2 2026 | $680M to $700M | $753.2M, about $713M without Eucalyptus | 1.9% without Eucalyptus | $35M to $55M | $60.3M |
| Q3 2026 | $880M to $900M | $894.6M (our forecast) | -0.6% | $75M to $95M | $88.0M (our forecast) |
EBITDA has been the more reliable beat: above the top of its guide in three of the last four quarters, by an average of $8.6M over the midpoint. Revenue has averaged 1.6% above the midpoint, if Q2 is counted without Eucalyptus. Applied to Q3, that pattern points to about $904M. Our build from the pieces comes in lower, at $894.6M, because we assume Eucalyptus grows more slowly than it did before the deal.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026
| $M unless stated | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast | Q3 consensus | Q3 guidance | Q4 2026 our forecast | Q4 consensus | FY 2026 our forecast | FY consensus | FY guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US revenue | 621.8 | 659.1 | n/a | n/a | 692.1 | n/a | 2,503.0 | n/a | n/a |
| International revenue | 131.4 | 235.5 | n/a | n/a | 255.6 | n/a | 700.7 | n/a | n/a |
| Total revenue | 753.2 | 894.6 | 892.8 | 880 to 900 | 947.7 | 954.6 | 3,203.7 | 3,208.1 | 3,100 to 3,300 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 60.3 | 88.0 | n/a | 75 to 95 | 104.3 | n/a | 296.9 | n/a | 275 to 325 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 8.0% | 9.8% | n/a | 9% to 11% | 11.0% | n/a | 9.3% | n/a | 9% to 10% |
Consensus is as of October 22: 13 analysts for Q3 and Q4 revenue, with Q3 estimates from $883.8M to $901.6M, and 14 for the full year. The Q4 range is much wider, $899.2M to $1,045.6M, which says analysts disagree about how fast the second half accelerates.
The full-year guide is the constraint to watch. First-half revenue was $1,361.3M. At the $3.2B midpoint, and with our Q3, Q4 has to be about $944M, roughly $10M below Q4 consensus. Last year revenue grew 3.1% from Q3 to Q4. Consensus needs 6.9%. If Hims & Hers simply reaffirms the full-year range on November 9, the Q4 number implied by it will look light next to the Street.
US weight loss and the Eucalyptus quarter
The quarter has three moving parts, and almost all of the growth from Q2 comes from just two of them.
US: $659.1M, up 6% from Q2. US revenue fell 8% from a year earlier in Q1, then grew 16% in Q2, to $621.8M, after the company moved its US weight-loss offering to branded GLP-1 drugs in March and kept compounded versions only "on a limited scale", in the 10-Q's words. Two things support further acceleration. Monthly billing on branded weight-loss plans held back reported revenue in Q2, and the CFO expects the effect to reverse as monthly cohorts stack up in Q3 and Q4. And Q3 2025 is an easy comparison, since US revenue grew only 1.2% from Q2 to Q3 last year. Holding Q2's dollar level flat would already mean 14% growth. We assume 6% sequential growth, which gives 21%.
International before Eucalyptus: $99.9M, up 13%. The CFO said the existing international business, mainly Zava in Europe and Medici in Canada, grew 13% from Q1 to Q2 without acquisitions. We repeat that rate. Canada should help, because Hims & Hers is scaling a generic weight-loss offering there and said Canada is on track to pass $100M in annualised revenue.
Eucalyptus: $135.6M for the full quarter. The 10-Q says Eucalyptus was about 5% of Q2 revenue for its one month, and about 15% of revenue on a pro forma basis, as if it had been owned all quarter. The CFO put the June contribution at "roughly $40 million"; the 13% organic growth figure gives $43.0M. We take June's run rate and grow it 2.5% a month. That is 8% above our estimate of about $125M for a full Q2, and well below the pace before the deal: Eucalyptus roughly doubled from Q2 2025 to Q2 2026 on the 10-Q's pro forma figures.
Subscribers give a cross-check. Hims & Hers ended Q2 with 2,891,000 subscribers, up 307,000 in the quarter including those from Eucalyptus, and monthly revenue per average subscriber of $92. That $92 understates the run rate, because the average counts Eucalyptus subscribers at June 30 but only one month of their revenue.
| Quarter | Subscribers at quarter end | Monthly revenue per average subscriber |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | 2,439,000 | $76 |
| Q3 2025 | 2,471,000 | $81 (our calculation) |
| Q4 2025 | 2,511,000 | $83 |
| Q1 2026 | 2,584,000 | $80 |
| Q2 2026 | 2,891,000 | $92 |
Our $894.6M is consistent with about 182,000 net new subscribers at $100 a month. At $96 it would need 431,000, more than in any recent quarter, and at $104 it would need none. A figure near $100 is the plausible range, given a full quarter of Eucalyptus and more branded weight-loss subscriptions.
Margins
Gross margin has fallen 12 points in a year, from 76% to 64%, as branded GLP-1 drugs and international revenue grew. Management does not expect it to recover; the CFO said margins "will remain below the levels we have historically achieved". We assume 62% for Q3, with a full quarter of Eucalyptus's mostly weight-loss revenue.
Adjusted EBITDA has held up better because other costs are falling as a share of revenue. Marketing was 34% of revenue in Q2, two points better than Q1 and five better than a year earlier, and operations and support costs improved three points from Q1. Our $88.0M needs the margin to rise from 8.0% to 9.8%, inside the 9% to 11% guide. Eucalyptus does not help: the CFO said it was running at "breakeven to moderate losses".
The full-year EBITDA guide tells the same story. In May the range was $275M to $350M, a 10% to 12% margin. In August it became $275M to $325M, 9% to 10%, even as the revenue guide rose by $300M at the midpoint. With $104.6M in the first half and our $88.0M in Q3, the midpoint implies about $107M in Q4. We forecast $104.3M.
Below EBITDA, the quarter is harder to read. Analysts' EPS estimates for Q3 average $0.06, from 11 analysts with a range of -$0.05 to $0.20, down from $0.08 sixty days ago. Our data does not say whether each analyst forecasts GAAP or adjusted earnings, and the spread suggests a mix. On the company's own adjusted basis, which excludes legal, deal and restructuring costs, Q2 was a loss of $20.8M. Starting from our $88.0M of EBITDA, about $45M of stock-based pay, $37.6M of depreciation and amortization (amortization of acquired intangibles rises to about $26.1M a quarter in the second half, from $18.7M in Q2), $2M of payroll tax on stock pay and $2M of net interest income leave about $5M before tax and fair-value changes, roughly $0.02 a share. That is below the $0.06 average. GAAP results will also carry legal accruals, Eucalyptus deal compensation and fair-value changes that we cannot forecast with any precision.
Balance sheet and dilution
- Cash. $609.8M of cash and $231.2M of short-term investments at June 30, $841.0M in total, down from $928.8M of cash and investments at the end of 2025.
- Convertible notes. $1.0B of 0% notes due 2030, convertible at $70.67 a share, and $402.5M of 0% notes due 2032, issued in May and convertible at $29.53, 7% above the current price.
- Eucalyptus payments. The purchase price for accounting was $968.5M: $225.0M in cash at closing, $683.9M of deferred payments in six quarterly installments through December 1, 2027, and an earn-out of up to $96.6M. Hims & Hers can settle "a significant majority" of the deferred and earn-out payments in Class A stock, up to 19.9% of the Class A shares. At today's price, $683.9M is about 24.7M shares, 10.6% of the 233.3M Class A and Class V shares outstanding. On top of that, up to $131.3M of payments to Eucalyptus founders who stayed on will be booked as compensation over time.
- Receivables. Receivables rose to $375.3M at June 30 from $32.1M at the end of 2025. The 10-Q says they are mainly manufacturer discount and rebate receivables under supply agreements. That build is why operating cash flow was -$35.9M and free cash flow -$68.2M in Q2 despite positive EBITDA, and why the company ended June with a $98.6M working capital deficit.
- A new funding tool. On July 1, two Hims & Hers subsidiaries signed a receivables purchase agreement with JPMorgan Chase, an uncommitted facility of up to $400.0M under which they can sell eligible receivables for cash at a discount. If it was used in Q3, cash flow will look much better than in Q2, and the reason will matter.
What management said
“We expect our domestic business to continue accelerating through the second half of the year.”
Yemi Okupe, CFO, Q2 2026 results release
“So we are expecting greater acceleration on both revenue and EBITDA in the U.S. in the back half of the year.”
Yemi Okupe, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“The Wegovy pill has had a staggering launch, and I think we are the largest or one of the largest players that are helping people access that pill.”
Andrew Dudum, CEO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“As branded weight loss products and international revenue become a larger portion of the business, we expect gross margins will remain below the levels we have historically achieved.”
Yemi Okupe, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“Ultimately, we were not prepared to accept the terms we do not believe reflect the facts or the law. We are confident in our position and intend to defend it vigorously.”
Yemi Okupe, CFO, on the FTC complaint, Q2 2026 earnings call
How the market is positioned
- Short interest was 54.8M shares at September 30, 24.3% of the 224.9M Class A shares, or 5.3 days of average volume. That is down 10.5% from 61.2M at June 30 and 16.3% from 65.5M in mid-June. Shorts are still large, but they have been covering into this report, not adding.
- Options. At the October 23 close, the at-the-money straddle for the November 13 expiration, the first after the report, cost about $5.29, or 19% of the share price. That covers three weeks of trading. The November 6 straddle, which expires before the report, cost about $3.30. Taking out the ordinary volatility leaves an implied move of about 12% for the report itself. The last four report-day moves averaged 5.5%, so options are pricing something closer to May's 14.1% drop than to a typical day.
- Insiders. The only open-market purchase this year was by director David Wells, who bought 48,400 shares at $24.24 on May 26, about $1.2M. Since April insiders have made 28 open-market sales worth about $12.2M, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans, including sales by the CFO in September and October.
- Valuation. At $27.71 the market value is $6.5B. Adding the convertible notes and deferred Eucalyptus payments and subtracting cash gives an enterprise value of about $7.7B, or 1.9x 2027 consensus revenue of $4.0B and about 31x the last four quarters' adjusted EBITDA of $249.3M.
Our assumptions
| Input | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 base case | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| US revenue | $621.8M | $659.1M | +6.0% from Q2, +21.3% from a year earlier; the CFO expects acceleration |
| International before Eucalyptus | $88.4M (our estimate) | $99.9M | +13%, the Q2 organic rate the CFO gave |
| Eucalyptus | $43.0M for June | $135.6M | June run rate, growing 2.5% a month |
| Gross margin | 64% | 62% | Full quarter of Eucalyptus and more branded weight-loss revenue |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 8.0% | 9.8% | Inside the 9% to 11% guide; Eucalyptus near breakeven |
| Stock-based pay | $42.1M | $45M | Grows with headcount |
| Depreciation and amortization | $29.5M | $37.6M | $26.1M of intangible amortization from the 10-Q schedule, plus equipment |
| Q4 revenue | n/a | $947.7M | US +5%, international before Eucalyptus +10%, Eucalyptus +7.5% |
- Upside, $920.0M of revenue and $96.6M of EBITDA. US revenue grows 9% from Q2, to $677.8M (25% from a year earlier), as monthly weight-loss cohorts stack faster, international revenue before Eucalyptus grows 16%, and Eucalyptus grows 4% a month. That would be a 2.2% beat on the top of the guide, bigger than in any of the last four quarters, counting Q2 without Eucalyptus.
- Downside, $858.8M of revenue and $73.0M of EBITDA. US growth stalls near Q2's pace, at 2% sequentially and 17% from a year earlier, international revenue before Eucalyptus grows 8%, and Eucalyptus stays at its June run rate. Revenue would miss the low end of the guide, which Hims & Hers has not done in the last four quarters.
Risks to our call
- US weight-loss demand. Our US number rests on the branded GLP-1 business keeping its Q2 momentum. Price cuts or direct-to-consumer offers from drug makers could slow new subscriptions.
- Eucalyptus. We have one month of reported data. Exchange rates, the integration and an Australian regulator's investigation into Eucalyptus's past advertising, disclosed in the 10-Q, could all move its contribution.
- Legal costs. Hims & Hers accrued $62.5M for legal contingencies in the first half. The FTC sued on July 29 under the FTC Act and the Restore Online Shoppers' Confidence Act, after a three-year investigation into privacy, advertising, subscription and cancellation practices, and a privacy class action followed. More accruals would hit GAAP results, though not adjusted EBITDA.
- Gross margin. If branded drugs and international revenue grow faster than we assume, gross margin could fall below 62% and squeeze EBITDA.
- Dilution. Settling the deferred Eucalyptus payments in stock at today's price would add about 10.6% to the share count by the end of 2027.
What to watch on the call
- US growth. Above 21% from a year earlier, about $659M, confirms the acceleration management promised. Below 17% means it stalled.
- The Q4 guide. Consensus is $954.6M. A reaffirmed full-year range implies about $944M after our Q3, so watch whether the range moves up.
- Eucalyptus. Its revenue for the quarter, which we put at $135.6M, and whether it is still near breakeven.
- The first installment. If the six installments are equal and run quarterly from the June 1 closing, about $114M of the deferred Eucalyptus payments came due around September 1. No filing since the 10-Q reports an issue of unregistered shares, so the Q3 share count and cash balance will show how it was paid.
- Cash flow and receivables. Whether receivables kept growing, and whether the company sold any under the JPMorgan facility.
- Margins. Gross margin against our 62%, and whether the $275M to $325M full-year EBITDA guide holds.
- New launches. Injectable and oral testosterone treatments launched on October 21; in August management said testosterone would become its sixth US specialty to reach a $100M annual revenue run rate. Hims and Hers also launched in Australia on August 31 and October 12.
Sources
- Q2 2026 results and Q3 guidance: 8-K filed August 10, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000161)
- Q2 2026 quarterly report: 10-Q filed August 10, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000163)
- Receivables purchase agreement: 8-K filed July 1, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000146)
- Eucalyptus closing: 8-K filed June 2, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000091)
- Q1 2026 results and Q2 guidance: 8-K filed May 11, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000074)
- Q1 2026 quarterly report: 10-Q filed May 11, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000076)
- Q4 2025 results and Q1 guidance: 8-K filed February 23, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000019)
- 2025 annual report: 10-K filed February 23, 2026 (accession 0001773751-26-000022)
- Q3 2025 results and Q4 guidance: 8-K filed November 3, 2025 (accession 0001773751-25-000352)
- Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, August 10, 2026
- Share prices, analyst consensus, short interest and insider trades: Equibles
- Forecast and assumptions: Equibles Research model, October 24, 2026
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.