SoFi Technologies (SOFI $14.62 -1.05%) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, October 27, before the market opens. The stock goes into the print at $14.77, 53% below its close on the day of last year's Q3 report, and it has fallen on each of the last three report days even though revenue kept growing about 40% a year. Over the same quarter the 2-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.14% to 4.88% and the Fed raised rates on September 17, which matters for a lender that marks most of its loans at fair value every quarter.
We rebuilt SoFi's quarter from its filings, its Q2 call and a September investor conference. Our answer is a narrow revenue beat with earnings close to consensus. Net interest income from the loans already on the balance sheet at June 30 covers most of the quarter's growth, and the fair-value line that worries the market has been far steadier than the rate chart suggests. The real test on October 27 is margin: consensus earnings need the profit ramp management has promised for the second half.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for SOFI:
Why Q3 should edge past consensus
SoFi is a bank now, and about two-thirds of its revenue is net interest income. That makes the June 30 balance sheet the best guide to Q3:
- Average interest-earning assets in Q2 were $52.86B, and net interest income was $788.2M, a net interest margin of 5.98%.
- At June 30, loans alone were $47.9B ($29.7B held for sale, $16.9B held for investment at fair value and $1.3B at amortized cost), plus $4.2B of securities and $3.6B of cash. That is about $55.7B of earning assets, 5.4% more than the Q2 average.
- If the balance sheet stood still at its June size and the margin held at 5.98%, Q3 net interest income would be about $840M.
We assume less loan growth than SoFi has been delivering. Loans grew $5.8B in Q2; we model about $2.6B in Q3, which puts average loans at $49.2B, and we shave the margin to 5.91% for the September hike and higher deposit costs. That gives consolidated net interest income of about $854M.
Fees grow more slowly. Loan origination fees jumped to $198.5M in Q2 from $138.3M, and the CFO told a September conference to expect "a decent uptick" in origination volumes in the second half. Loan platform fees, where SoFi originates loans for outside buyers, were flat at $140.9M, but new agreements with Sixth Street (up to $1B) and Basepoint ($3B over three years of small-business loans) start to add volume. Add the Financial Services fees, Technology Platform revenue and the usual drag from Corporate/Other, and Q3 lands at $1,273.7M.
Our base case is not a stretch. It implies 5.7% growth over Q2, the slowest quarterly growth since Q1 2025, after 10.9% in Q2 and 7.3% in Q1. Consensus at $1,257.2M implies 4.3%.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026
| $M unless stated | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast | Q3 consensus | Q4 2026 our forecast | Q4 consensus | FY 2026 our forecast | FY consensus | FY guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue | 1,205.6 | 1,273.7 | 1,257.2 | 1,324.5 | 1,317.1 | 4,891.1 | 4,873.5 | 4,750 to 4,850 |
| Net interest income | 788.2 | 853.7 | n/a | 892.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 357.8 | 433.1 | n/a | 490.1 | n/a | 1,620.8 | n/a | about 1,600 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 29.7% | 34.0% | n/a | 37.0% | n/a | 33.1% | n/a | 33% to 34% |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.16 | $0.166 | $0.19 | $0.192 | $0.60 | $0.592 | about $0.60 |
Consensus is the mean of 18 analysts for quarterly revenue (range $1,210.2M to $1,309.0M), 21 for the full year, and 9 for quarterly EPS, as of October 21. Q4 rolls the balance sheet forward one more quarter with the same arithmetic: average loans of $51.8B, a slightly lower margin and fee lines growing with volume.
The full-year line is where the call matters for the stock. H1 revenue was $2,292.8M, so the guide implies $1,229M to $1,279M a quarter in the second half. Our model and consensus both sit above the top of that range, which leaves room for SoFi to raise its revenue guidance again on October 27.
Fair value marks: the line that scares the market
SoFi holds about $46.7B of loans at fair value and re-marks them every quarter. When rates rise, the value of fixed-rate personal and student loans falls. SoFi hedges that exposure, so the hedges gain when the loans lose. Both lines land in Lending noninterest income, and the 10-Qs break them out.
| Quarter | 2-year yield move | Marks | Hedges | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2024 | -105 bp | 392.9 | -267.7 | 125.2 |
| Q4 2024 | +59 bp | -177.4 | 324.2 | 146.8 |
| Q1 2025 | -36 bp | 240.4 | -135.0 | 105.4 |
| Q2 2025 | -17 bp | 188.1 | -71.5 | 116.6 |
| Q3 2025 | -12 bp | 104.4 | 6.3 | 110.7 |
| Q4 2025 | -13 bp | 70.8 | 34.7 | 105.5 |
| Q1 2026 | +32 bp | 37.6 | 161.8 | 199.4 |
| Q2 2026 | +35 bp | -79.7 | 212.8 | 133.1 |
| Q3 2026F | +74 bp | lower | higher | 130.0 |
The pattern is plain. The two lines swing by hundreds of millions in opposite directions, but the net has stayed between $105M and $199M in every one of the last eight quarters. The closest match to Q3 is Q4 2024, when the 2-year rose 59 basis points: marks fell $177.4M, hedges gained $324.2M, and the net was $146.8M.
Q3 2026 is still a bigger test. The 2-year rose 74 basis points, more than in any of those quarters, and most of it came late: the yield was 4.39% on September 8 and 4.88% on September 30. High-yield credit spreads also widened, from 2.75% to 3.12%, and the hedges cover rates, not credit. Personal loans were marked at 104.7% of par at June 30, down 71 basis points in Q2, and we expect another step down. We use $130M for the net, close to the eight-quarter average of $130.3M, and our downside case uses $100M, below anything SoFi has reported in two years.
The other two pieces of the Lending fee line move with volume. Whole-loan write-offs grow with the book, from $156.9M a year ago to $195.3M in Q2; we use $205M. Origination fees reached $198.5M; we use $210M.
Segments
Corporate/Other, a loss of $14M to $66M a quarter, is left out of the chart, so the bars add up to slightly more than total revenue.
- Lending ($711.7M in Q2, +59% from a year earlier) is the engine. Lending net interest income rose to $573.3M from $500.2M in one quarter as SoFi kept more of its record $14.8B of originations on its own balance sheet. We forecast $749.2M.
- Financial Services ($466.3M) is deposits, the loan platform business, cards, brokerage and crypto. Net interest income here is the spread SoFi earns on $45.5B of deposits, which can widen when rates rise faster than deposit rates. We forecast $493.5M, up 5.8%.
- Technology Platform ($84.5M) is still recovering from losing a large client, down 23% from a year earlier but up 13% in Q2. We forecast $88.0M.
Members reached 15.8M, up 35%, with a record 1.1M added in Q2, and products reached 24.4M. The full-year target is member growth of at least 30%.
Margins: the ramp that consensus needs
SoFi kept its full-year guidance of about $1.6B of adjusted EBITDA and $825M of adjusted net income when it raised revenue in July. With $697.7M of EBITDA in the first half, that implies about $451M a quarter in the second half, a 36% margin, against 30.4% in the first half. At the September conference the CFO said the second-half guide already assumes one or two rate hikes and a higher tax rate, and that it does not need any help from the economy.
The arithmetic from EBITDA to EPS is mechanical. In Q2, interest on corporate debt, depreciation and share-based pay took $161M off EBITDA, offset by a $13M servicing gain, and tax ran at about 23%. Using the same items for Q3, about 1.33B diluted shares and the guided 22% tax rate:
| Q3 adjusted EBITDA margin | Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | Adjusted EPS |
|---|---|---|
| 29.7% (Q2 level) | 378 | $0.13 |
| 32% | 408 | $0.15 |
| 34% (our forecast) | 433 | $0.16 |
| 34.4% (needed for consensus) | 439 | $0.166 |
| 36% (guided second-half average) | 459 | $0.18 |
We assume most of the ramp shows up in Q3 and the rest in Q4, which gets the full year to about $1.62B of EBITDA. If margins stay near 30%, revenue can beat and EPS can still miss by more than three cents.
Balance sheet and dilution
- Total assets were $60.95B at June 30, up $7.2B in the quarter.
- Deposits were $45.5B, up $5.3B, and fund most of the balance sheet. Debt was $3.3B.
- Capital: a total capital ratio of 18.8% against a 10.5% regulatory minimum and a long-run target in the low to mid teens.
- Tangible book value was $9.5B, or $7.34 a share, up 56% from a year earlier. At $14.77 the stock trades at about 2.0 times tangible book.
- Shares: 1.29B outstanding. Diluted shares were 1.35B in Q2, or 1.32B on SoFi's adjusted count, which takes out 27.4M shares tied to convertible notes.
- Credit: the annualized net charge-off rate on personal loans held on the balance sheet was 2.62% in Q2, down from 2.83% a year earlier; student loans were 0.61%.
Because SoFi marks most of its loans to market through earnings, a rate rise shows up in the quarter it happens instead of sitting in unrealized losses. That is why the hedge result and the margin matter more than the headline revenue.
What management said
“For the full year 2026, we now expect to deliver adjusted net revenue of $4.75 to $4.85 billion, which equates to year-over-year growth of approximately 32 to 35 percent. This is up from our prior guidance of approximately 30 percent year-over-year growth.”
Chris Lapointe, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“We continue to expect a healthy net interest margin above 5% for the foreseeable future.”
Chris Lapointe, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“Q2 marks a clear inflection point in our strategy, where Everything App is driving higher products per member, resulting in higher lifetime value, supporting superior levels of investment, and our ability to offer more value to our members than anyone else in better rates, products, and services.”
Anthony Noto, CEO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“If there are no rate increases, we probably have upside to the bottom line. But we have the cushion in our guidance to be prepared to deliver regardless of the environment.”
SoFi management, Q2 2026 earnings call, answering an analyst
“If rates go up, like I said, that's already baked into our contemplated guide.”
Chris Lapointe, CFO, investor conference, September 8, 2026
“At this point in time, we don't see the need to raise any equity capital under our current operating plan, given where our capital ratios are today and the growth that we're seeing in the loan platform business.”
Chris Lapointe, CFO, investor conference, September 8, 2026
“We reported $28 billion in annualized spend across our debit and credit products, and we don't see that slowing down here in Q3.”
Chris Lapointe, CFO, investor conference, September 8, 2026
Most of Q3's rate move came after that conference. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on September 17, the first of the one or two hikes SoFi built into its guide.
How the market is positioned
- Report days: the stock fell 6.4%, 15.4% and 8.9% on the last three, and the average move over the last eight was 7.5% in either direction. Beating revenue has not been enough; the market has traded the margin and the quality of fair-value revenue.
- Price: $14.77 at the October 22 close, near the bottom of a $14.22 to $32.21 range over the past year, for a market value of about $19.3B.
- Short interest: 214.9M shares at the September 30 settlement, about 17% of shares outstanding, up from 172.5M on August 14. Days to cover was 4.2.
- Insiders: CEO Anthony Noto bought 130,211 shares for about $2.25M in five open-market purchases between March 2 and June 16, the last at $18.06. There have been no insider purchases since; the only open-market sales were two other insiders selling about $1.0M under pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans. The weeks before a report are usually a blackout window, so the pause says little.
A heavily shorted stock with low expectations and a cheap valuation on tangible book can move sharply on a clean quarter. It can also fall again if margins stall.
Our assumptions
| Driver | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 base | Downside | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average loans ($B) | 45.4 | 49.2 | 48.6 | 50.0 |
| Lending net interest yield on loans | 5.07% | 5.02% | 4.92% | 5.07% |
| Consolidated net interest margin | 5.98% | 5.91% | about 5.8% | about 5.96% |
| Financial Services net interest income ($M) | 249.1 | 266.5 | 259.1 | 271.5 |
| Financial Services fees ($M) | 217.2 | 227.0 | 220.0 | 233.0 |
| Origination fees ($M) | 198.5 | 210.0 | 198.0 | 225.0 |
| Whole-loan write-offs ($M) | -195.3 | -205.0 | -210.0 | -203.0 |
| Net fair value marks and hedges ($M) | 133.1 | 130.0 | 100.0 | 199.0 |
| Technology Platform ($M) | 84.5 | 88.0 | 86.0 | 90.0 |
| Corporate/Other ($M) | -56.9 | -57.0 | -60.0 | -55.0 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 29.7% | 34% | 31% | 36% |
| Adjusted net revenue ($M) | 1,205.6 | 1,273.7 | 1,182.4 | 1,396.1 |
| Adjusted EPS | $0.12 | $0.16 | $0.12 | $0.20 |
The downside case is a quarter where the hedges fall short of the marks, loan growth slows to about half our base and margins stay near Q2's level. The upside case is Q1 2026 again: hedges well ahead of the marks, faster loan growth and the full guided margin ramp in one quarter. The analyst range of $1,210.2M to $1,309.0M sits inside our band.
Risks to our call
- The hedges miss. A 74 basis point rise in the 2-year is larger than anything in the last eight quarters, and wider credit spreads are not hedged. Each $50M off the net marks line takes about 4% off revenue.
- Loans sold, not held. If SoFi sold more personal loans through its loan platform business instead of keeping them, net interest income grows less. Platform fees would make up part of it, not all.
- Funding costs. The September hike lifts deposit costs. Our base already trims the margin 7 basis points; a bigger squeeze would come straight off net interest income.
- The margin ramp slips. At Q2's 29.7% margin, EPS would be about $0.13 even on our revenue.
- Credit. Personal loan charge-offs are falling, but write-offs of whole loans held at fair value grow with the book, and a weaker consumer would show up there first.
What to watch on the call
- The full-year revenue guide against $4.85B, and whether EBITDA guidance moves from $1.6B.
- The personal loan mark against 104.7% at June 30, and the hedge result against it.
- Originations against Q2's record $14.8B, and how much stayed on the balance sheet.
- Loan platform volume from the Sixth Street and Basepoint agreements and closed-end second mortgages.
- Deposit growth and the net interest margin against the "above 5%" level management expects.
- Member adds against the 1.1M record in Q2.
- Any first comments on 2027, where consensus expects $6.11B of revenue and $0.82 of EPS.
Sources
- Q2 2026 results and guidance: 8-K filed July 29, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000050)
- Q2 2026 quarterly report, balance sheet and Lending noninterest income detail: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000054)
- Q1 2026 results: 8-K filed April 29, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000020)
- Q1 2026 quarterly report: 10-Q filed May 7, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000037)
- Q3 2025 quarterly report: 10-Q filed November 6, 2025 (accession 0001818874-25-000210)
- 2025 annual report: 10-K filed February 17, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000013)
- Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, July 29, 2026
- Investor conference transcript, September 8, 2026
- Treasury yields, credit spreads and the Fed target range: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
- Share prices, analyst consensus, short interest and insider trades: Equibles
- Forecast and assumptions: Equibles Research model, October 23, 2026
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.