Upstart (UPST $23.78 -0.29%) reports Q3 2026 results on Tuesday, November 3, before the market opens, with the release at about 7:00 a.m. ET and the call at 8:00 a.m. ET. The stock goes into the print at $23.78, down 46% this year, and it fell the day after each of its last four reports, by 9.7%, 15.0%, 7.9% and 0.4%.
Upstart is unusual among lenders and fintechs because the most important number of the quarter is already public. Since February it has published its loan originations every month, and the three Q3 releases add up to $4,117.8M, 44% more than a year earlier but 2.6% less than in Q2. It is the first drop from one quarter to the next since Q2 2024. We rebuilt revenue from that volume, the fee mix in the Q2 filings and what management said about take rates. Our answer is Q3 revenue slightly above consensus. The harder test is the full-year profit target: Upstart still expects about $294M of adjusted EBITDA, and on our numbers Q4 has to deliver about $95M of it.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for UPST:
Why Q3 revenue should come in slightly ahead
Upstart stopped giving quarterly guidance this year. Paul Gu, a co-founder and long-time chief technology officer who recently became CEO, said in September that the company "somewhat stubbornly" refuses to guide near-term results so it can react quickly to credit conditions. That leaves the monthly originations, which Upstart publishes on the third calendar day after each month, as the best input there is.
| Month | Originations | Origination days | Per day | Change from a year earlier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | $1,397.4M | 27.40 | $51.0M | 34% |
| August 2026 | $1,342.1M | 26.50 | $50.7M | 57% |
| September 2026 | $1,378.3M | 25.95 | $53.1M | 44% |
| Q3 2026 | $4,117.8M | 79.85 | $51.6M | 44% |
| Q2 2026 (reported) | $4,227.2M | 78.40 | $53.9M | 50% |
A flat Q3 is not new. Last year, volume per origination day was $35.9M in both Q2 and Q3, and revenue still rose 7.7% from Q2 to Q3. This year the drop came after June, and the CFO said in August that the higher Upstart Macro Index (UMI), Upstart's gauge of how much the economy is raising default risk, was "a modest headwind on originations". UMI was 1.50 on August 3 and September 3 and 1.49 on October 5, at the top of the 1.4 to 1.5 range the full-year guide assumed. September's $53.1M a day was the best month of the quarter.
Consensus already reflects the volume: the $364.8M average, as of October 15, is almost exactly Q2's $364.7M. Our estimate is above it because servicing fees and the fair-value line should both do better than in Q2.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4 2026
| $M unless stated | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 our forecast | Q3 consensus | Q4 2026 our forecast | Q4 consensus | FY 2026 our forecast | FY consensus | FY guidance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Originations | 4,227.2 | 4,117.8 (published, preliminary) | n/a | 4,141.8 | n/a | 15,932.0 | n/a | n/a |
| Revenue from fees | 348.0 | 345.4 | n/a | 351.5 | n/a | 1,322.1 | n/a | about 1,300 |
| Net interest and fair value | 16.7 | 25.0 | n/a | 25.0 | n/a | 97.9 | n/a | n/a |
| Total revenue | 364.7 | 370.4 | 364.8 | 376.5 | 382.3 | 1,419.9 | 1,418.4 | about 1,400 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 76.9 | 81.5 | n/a | 84.4 | n/a | 283.3 | n/a | about 294 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 21.1% | 22.0% | n/a | 22.4% | n/a | 20.0% | n/a | 21% |
Consensus is as of October 15: 13 analysts for Q3 and Q4 revenue, with Q3 estimates from $351.3M to $375.1M, and 15 for the full year. There is no EBITDA consensus in our data.
The two halves of the year tell different stories. First-half revenue was $672.9M, so the ~$1.4B guide only needs about $727M in the second half, which our $747.0M clears. First-half adjusted EBITDA was $117.4M, so the ~$294M target needs $176.6M in the second half, a 24.3% margin. Our second half is $165.9M.
Volume, take rate and servicing fees
Revenue has three parts, and each moves differently.
Platform and referral fees: $276.7M. These are paid when a loan is made, so they follow originations. They were 6.72% of originations in Q2, up from 6.52% in Q1 as core personal loans, which carry higher fees, grew faster, and as Q1's seasonal softness passed. CFO Andrea Blankmeyer said she expects "relative consistency with where we are on take rates today" for the rest of the year. We hold 6.72%.
Servicing, loan sale and other fees: $68.7M. Servicing fees are paid on the loans Upstart services, so they grow with the portfolio, not the quarter's volume. They rose from $49.1M in Q1 to $54.8M in Q2. Originations are still 44% above a year ago, so the serviced book keeps growing; we assume 7%, to $58.7M. Fees from forward-flow loan sales, broken out for the first time in Q2, were $9.1M; we use $10.0M.
Net interest income and fair value: $25.0M. This line swings with credit. It was $31.2M in Q1 and fell to $16.7M in Q2 as UMI rose about 9% during the quarter and Upstart marked down the loans it holds. UMI was flat through Q3, so we expect a smaller mark and put the line halfway between Q1 and Q2.
Put together, all fees come to 8.39% of originations, up from 8.23%, only because servicing income does not shrink when volume does. Every 10 basis points of referral take rate is worth about $4M of quarterly revenue.
For Q4 we assume volume runs at September's $53.1M a day over about 78 origination days, $4,141.8M, up 30% from a year earlier. Upstart grew volume per day 14% from Q3 to Q4 last year, but that was a year of rapid growth, and the step was 4% in 2023. October's originations are due on November 3, the day of the report, under the company's monthly schedule, and will show which way Q4 is going.
Margins and the full-year EBITDA target
Adjusted EBITDA is contribution profit, which is fee revenue minus the variable cost of finding, verifying and servicing borrowers, plus the net interest line, minus fixed costs. Contribution margin recovered to 55% in Q2 from 50% in Q1. Unsecured loans earned 62%, and the secured products, auto loans and home equity lines, improved from -96% to -35%. Management expects secured products to reach breakeven in Q4. We assume a total margin of 56% in Q3 and 57% in Q4, which is close to that path.
Fixed costs are the other half. Blankmeyer said fixed expenses would grow "in the low single digits sequentially in both Q3 and Q4". We use 3% a quarter. That gives $81.5M in Q3 and $84.4M in Q4, short of the $95.1M Q4 needs. To close the gap in Q4 alone, Upstart would need about 5% more fee revenue than we assume, or a net interest line near $36M. Fee growth of that size happened in Q2, and the net interest line was $31.2M as recently as Q1, which is why we call the target at risk rather than out of reach.
Earnings per share are harder to compare. Six analysts' Q3 estimates average $0.65, from $0.45 to $0.88. Upstart reports only GAAP earnings per share, which were $0.16 diluted in Q2, and our data does not label the analysts' basis. Applying Q2's gap between adjusted EBITDA and net income, mostly stock-based pay, our numbers give GAAP net income of about $19.9M, or $0.18 a share. The $0.65 average is only reachable on a measure that leaves out stock-based pay.
Balance sheet, funding and the bank
- Cash and loans. $456.0M of cash and $526.3M of restricted cash at June 30, against $652.4M of cash at the end of 2025. Upstart held $1,064.2M of loans at fair value, up from $984.6M, and $545.9M of beneficial interests in loan securitizations.
- Borrowings. Total borrowings were $2,003.1M, including warehouse lines and $1,687.8M of convertible notes. $66.5M of that matured in August 2026; the rest is due between 2029 and 2032, convertible at $45.66 (2029), $91.99 (2030) and $82.50 (2032), all far above the share price.
- A bank of its own. Upstart has conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to open Upstart Bank, N.A. Its applications for deposit insurance and for Upstart to become a bank holding company were still pending in August. Gu said in September that the bank is a cost with no benefit in 2026 and should launch in early 2027.
- New credit line. On October 16, Upstart signed a $200M secured revolving credit facility with MUFG Bank, at SOFR plus 3.00%, to give it financing flexibility while the bank is set up. It must be repaid from loan sales to Upstart Bank once the bank opens. The CFO said in August that the company is already capitalised to launch the bank.
- Share count. 97.3M shares outstanding on July 28, against 98.0M at the end of 2025.
What management said
“Looking ahead, we expect fixed expenses to grow in the low single digits sequentially in both Q3 and Q4.”
Andrea Blankmeyer, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“We told you last quarter that the guide was back half-weighted. We're continuing to see that here with the EBITDA expected to ramp in the second half of the year.”
Andrea Blankmeyer, CFO, Q2 2026 earnings call
“And so that represents a modest headwind on originations and our fair value marks.”
Andrea Blankmeyer, CFO, on UMI near the top of the guidance range, Q2 2026 earnings call
“That's actually one reason that we somewhat stubbornly refuse to give near-term guidance on results is that we want to be able to take credit seriously as a first priority, and that basically means we want to be fastest and most precise in responding to UMI changes.”
Paul Gu, CEO, Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference, September 8, 2026
“We've built a technology advantage that keeps compounding, and we've barely scratched the surface of the opportunity in front of us.”
Paul Gu, CEO, Q2 2026 results release
How the market is positioned
- Short interest was 28.6M shares at September 30, 29.4% of the 97.3M shares outstanding, or 6.2 days of average volume. That is up 10.6% from 25.8M at June 30, so shorts added through the quarter.
- Insiders. Since April insiders have made four open-market purchases worth about $7.7M. Paul Gu bought 50,000 shares at $27.50 on May 13 and another 50,000 at $25.55 on September 10, and co-founder Dave Girouard bought 170,240 shares at about $29.37 on May 7. Over the same period there were 22 open-market sales worth about $5.6M.
- Options. At the October 23 close, the at-the-money straddle for the November 6 expiration, the first after the report, cost about $3.54, or 15% of the share price. The October 30 straddle, which expires before the report, cost about $1.56. Taking out a week of ordinary volatility leaves an implied move of about 12% for the report. The last four report-day moves averaged 8.3%.
- Valuation. At $23.78 the market value is $2.3B, about 1.6 times the 2026 revenue guide and 6.7 times the 2027 EPS consensus of $3.57 from 8 analysts.
Our assumptions
| Input | Q2 2026 actual | Q3 2026 base case | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Originations | $4,227.2M | $4,117.8M | Upstart's published July, August and September figures, preliminary and unaudited |
| Platform and referral fees | 6.72% of originations | 6.72% | The CFO expects take rates to stay where they are |
| Servicing fees | $54.8M | $58.7M | +7%: the serviced book keeps growing |
| Loan sale fees | $9.1M | $10.0M | Forward-flow sales continue |
| Net interest and fair value | $16.7M | $25.0M | UMI flat in Q3 after rising in Q2 |
| Contribution margin | 55% | 56% | Secured products move toward breakeven |
| Fixed costs counted in adjusted EBITDA | $132.9M | $136.9M | +3%, the CFO's "low single digits" |
| Q4 originations | n/a | $4,141.8M | September's $53.1M a day for about 78 days |
- Upside, $386.9M of revenue and $97.4M of EBITDA. The referral take rate rises to 6.95%, about half of last year's Q2 to Q3 step, the net interest line returns to $32M as fair-value marks ease, and contribution margin reaches 57%. Q4 would then need only about $79M of EBITDA for the full-year target.
- Downside, $349.2M of revenue and $60.6M of EBITDA. The take rate slips back to Q1's 6.52%, fair-value marks stay heavy at $12M for the line, and contribution margin holds at 55%. Revenue would fall from the previous quarter for the first time since Q1 2025, and the full-year EBITDA target would need about $116M in Q4.
Risks to our call
- Credit. UMI drives both volume and the fair-value line. A rise in October or November would cut Q4 volume and mark down the $1.06B of loans Upstart holds.
- Take rate. Upstart says it is not optimising for take rate. If it cuts prices to win volume, referral fees could fall below 6.72%.
- Funding. Most loans are sold to banks, credit unions and institutional investors. Tighter credit markets would slow originations even with good borrower demand.
- The bank. Opening Upstart Bank adds costs before it adds income, and the approvals for deposit insurance and the holding company were still pending in August.
- Our servicing assumption. If servicing fees grow 3% instead of 7%, our Q3 revenue falls by about $2M.
What to watch on the call
- October originations. Due on November 3 under Upstart's monthly schedule. A daily rate well above September's $53.1M would support Q4 consensus. Flat would not.
- The full-year EBITDA target. Whether "about $294M" stays. Keeping it implies about $95M in Q4 after our Q3.
- Take rate. Platform and referral fees as a share of originations, against our 6.72%.
- Net interest and fair value. Against our $25.0M, and what UMI did to the marks.
- Secured products. Whether contribution margin is on track for breakeven in Q4.
- The bank. Any update on deposit insurance, the holding company approval and the early 2027 launch.
Sources
- Q2 2026 results and full-year outlook: 8-K filed August 4, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000062)
- Q2 2026 quarterly report: 10-Q filed August 4, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000063)
- MUFG revolving credit facility: 8-K filed October 20, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000071)
- Q1 2026 results: 8-K filed May 5, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000045)
- Q4 2025 results: 8-K filed February 10, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000025)
- 2025 annual report: 10-K filed February 10, 2026 (accession 0001647639-26-000027)
- Q3 2025 results: 8-K filed November 4, 2025 (accession 0001647639-25-000133)
- Q2 2026 earnings call transcript, August 4, 2026
- Goldman Sachs Communacopia and Technology Conference transcript, September 8, 2026
- Monthly originations and UMI: Upstart's July, August and September 2026 originations releases, published August 3, September 3 and October 5, 2026
- Share prices, analyst consensus, short interest and insider trades: Equibles
- Forecast and assumptions: Equibles Research model, October 24, 2026
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.