Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Good afternoon, and welcome to Arthur J. Gallagher and Company's fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. Your lines will be open for questions following the presentation. Today's call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Some of the comments made during today's conference call, including answers given in response to questions, may constitute forward-looking statements within the meanings of the securities laws. The company does not assume any obligation to update information or forward-looking statements provided on this call. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to the information concerning forward-looking statements and risk factors sections contained in the company's most recent 10K, 10Q, and 8K filings for more details on such risks and uncertainties. In addition, for reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures discussed on this call, as well as other information regarding these measures, please refer to the earnings release and other materials in the Investor Relations section of the company's website. It is now my pleasure to introduce J. Patrick Gallagher, Jr., Chairman and CEO of Arthur J. Gallagher & Company. Mr. Gallagher, you may begin.

Thank you. Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us for our fourth quarter 25 earnings call. On the call for you today is Doug Hall, our CFO, and other members of the management team. We had an excellent fourth quarter and a terrific year. Our two-pronged revenue growth strategy, that's organic and M&A, delivered revenue growth of more than 30% during the fourth quarter. That includes organic growth of 5%. Adjusted EBITDA growth was 30%, marking our 23rd consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. So a great quarter, highlighting our durable value creation strategy that drives consistent double-digit growth in revenue and profits. moving to results on a segment basis starting with the brokerage segment reported revenue growth was 38 percent organic growth was five percent in line with our december commentary adjusted ebit margin was 32.2 percent and ahead of our expectation with underlying margin expansion of 50 basis points let me provide you with some insights behind our brokerage segment organic America's retail PC organic was up 5% UK and EMEA up 7% APAC up 3% specialty and wholesale up a US wholesale up 7% reinsurance of 8% and benefits of 1% so we continue to deliver organic growth across retail PC benefits wholesale and reinsurance and Doug will further unpack organic in his comments next let me present provide some thoughts on the global PC insurance pricing environment fourth quarter insurance renewal premium change which includes both rate and exposure continued to increase in the low single digits once again property decreases were more than offset by increases across most casualty classes let me break that down further property lines were down 5% casualty lines which includes general liability commercial auto and umbrella up 5% overall with US casualty lines up 7% package up 3% Dino down a point workers comp up a point personal lines up 5% so many lines are still seeing increases outside of property in fact excluding property renewal premium change would be it we'd be up about three percent during the quarter with that said premiums are ultimately determined by loss experience and good accounts will get some premium relief all accounts with poor loss experience will see greater increases moving to reinsurance let me provide you with some thoughts on the one one renewal season with the strong underwriting results posted by carriers during 2025, which was helped by a quiet U.S. wind season, there was plenty of reinsurance capacity to support client demand. The property reinsurance market saw rate decreases in the teens with lower layers holding up better than the top end of reinsurance towers. We saw some continued demand for more cover and increased purchasing by clients. In fact, despite double digit price declines for property cat globally, property reinsurance premiums were down only mid to high single digits relative to last year. Within specialty lines, marine and energy experienced increased carrier competition. Pricing across casualty lines continued to be broadly stable because most reinsurers remain very cautious of U.S.-focused casualty risks. Looking ahead, we expect the buyer's market will persist through 2026, absent any outsized current year or prior year loss activity. While clients are comfortable with their purchased reinsurance programs at 1-1, we believe it is likely that some carriers will explore buying additional protection to further reduce earnings volatility or support growth throughout 2026. Moving to employee benefits, we continue to see strong demand for our services as clients manage rising health insurance costs. medical costs are expected to be up high single digits again in 26 driven by increased utilization provider consolidation and newer high-cost treatments and therapies so we are engaging with employers to help them implement innovative solutions such as telemedicine programs wellness initiatives and tailored benefits packages to alleviate these cost pressures additionally talent retention strategies remain top of mind for many of our clients given the resilient u.s labor market so we're expecting another strong year of growth moving to some comments on our customers business activity our proprietary data which has been a valuable indicator of the economy continues to show solid client business activity fourth quarter revenue indications from audits endorsements and cancellations remain nicely positive and were more favorable compared to both fourth quarter 2024 and third quarter 2025. And through the first three weeks of January, these favorable trends continue. We're watching our customers' business activity daily, and we are just not seeing signs of economic weakness. Regardless of market and economic conditions, I believe we are very well positioned to grow. Our global resources, data analytics expertise and unique product offerings put us in a spot to compete and to win so as we sit here today we continue to see brokerage segment full year 26 organic growth of around five and a half percent moving into risk management segment gallagher bassett fourth quarter revenue growth was 13 percent including organic of seven percent we saw another quarter strong new business growth and excellent client retention looking ahead we're well positioned to drive new business production and believe full year 26 organic growth will come in around 7% fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA margin was 21.6% a bit better than our December expectations looking ahead we see full year 26 margins in the 21 to 22 percent range shifting to mergers and acquisition starting with some comments on assured partners we are already seeing a lot of sec success with the AP team leveraging our products data and analytics insights and tools our teams are hard at work integrating the 300 plus tuck-ins agency management system conversions and training of our middle office will be in full swing during 2026 additionally a little more than a week ago, all of our U.S. retail operations were rebranded Gallagher. When it comes to our back office integration, we are ahead of plan, including going live on our general ledger, HR, payroll, treasury, and T&E systems. So we remain firmly on track with our integration plans and are confident we will be able to deliver on our synergy targets. Moving to fourth quarter merger activity, we completed seven new mergers representing around $145 million of estimated annualized revenue. This brings our full year 25 annualized acquired revenue to more than $3.5 billion. That's fantastic. For all of our new partners joining us, I'd like to extend a very warm welcome. Looking ahead, there are thousands of brokerage firms across our footprint, and Gallagher is a great home for entrepreneurs looking to grow their business, add more value to their current clients, and further advance their employees' careers. Our M&A strategy is about being better together so that one plus one can equal three four or even five shifting to today our pipeline is showing more than 40 term sheets signed or being prepared representing around 350 million dollars of annualized revenue good firms always have a choice it would be terrific if they chose to partner with Gallagher the strong close to the year let me reflect on our full 25 financial performance for brokerage and risk management combined. 21% growth in revenue, 6% organic growth, 26% growth in adjusted EBITDA, and more than $3.5 billion in acquired annualized revenue. Another fantastic year driven by our talented colleagues and our bedrock culture. Frankly, our culture is unstoppable, and it drives our success year after year. That is the Gallagher way. I'll stop now and turn it over to Doug. Doug?

Thanks, Pat, and hello, everyone. Today, I'll first walk you through our earnings release and provide some brief comments on organic growth and margins by operating segment and also on our corporate segment results. Next, I'll move to the CFO commentary document we post on our IR website. I'll walk you through our typical modeling helpers and our outlook for 26. Additionally, this is where I'll spend a little more time on organic and margins. Then I'll conclude my prepared remarks with my usual comments on cash, M&A, and capital management. Okay, let's go to the earnings release, to page three. Brokerage segment fourth quarter organic growth was five percent. That's right in line with the information we provided you at our December IR day. Since then, we've received really positive feedback from the investment community for levelizing for the quarterly noise caused by the timing of large live sales and deferred revenue accounting assumptions. That's a fantastic reflection of our sales culture to post 5% in this quarter and 6% for the year. Flipping to page 5 of the earnings release to the brokerage segment adjusted EBITDA table at the top half of the page. We told you in December that our fourth quarter 25 headline margin would not be comparable to fourth quarter 24 because, as the footnote to that table explains, we are no longer earning investment income on funds we were holding to buy assured partners, and there would also be a rolling impact of M&A. The footnote tells you that was about 130 basis points. So the quick math shows levelizing for that gets you to 50 basis points of underlying expansion, right at the midpoint of our 40 to 60 basis points of expansion we estimated during our December IR day that's really terrific work by the team so I'll give you some more information on brokerage margins when I get to page 8 of the CFO commentary document because this headline noise will happen in the first and second quarter of 26 again sticking on page 5 fourth quarter risk management segment organic growth was 7% right in line with our December expectations. That reflects strong new business revenues and excellent client retention. Looking to full year 26, we continue to see organic around 7%. And then when you flip to page 6, the risk management adjusted EBITDAQ margin of 21.6% was a bit better than our December expectation. And as we looked forward, we see full year 26 margins in the 21 to 22 percent range. So turning to page seven of the earnings release and the corporate segment shortcut table. For the adjusted interest and banking clean energy and acquisition lines, all were very close to the midpoint of our December expectations. The adjusted corporate line was a couple pennies less than our midpoint estimate, partly due to a non-cash unrealized FX, remeasurement loss, and a small tax item. Also, while we adjusted out, we substantially completed the wind down and annuitization of our long ago frozen pension plan. Creates a non-cash gap expense here in the fourth quarter, and will again in Q126, but those reverse through OCI, so it nets to zero. But more importantly, we hit the market just right and didn't have to inject any cash into the plan. All right, let's leave the earnings release and go to the CFO commentary document. Starting on page three, these are typical modeling helpers. Most of the fourth quarter 25 actual numbers were close to what we provided back in December, so there's nothing new here. Looking at 26, as you build your models, please use these helpers. In particular, the estimated impact from FX and the forecasted depreciation and earn out payable expense. Turning to page four of the CFO commentary document, this page breaks down organic performance by business, and it's like what we provided for the first time at our December IR day. This view helps you see four things. First, it removes the quarterly comparability impact caused by the large live sales, and second, it removes the comparability impact caused by deferred revenue estimates. These two items were causing a lot of quarterly noise. But as we said in December, and you can see here, they are really a no-nevermind on a full-year basis. Third thing this view does is it shows you the quarterly seasonality of our business, and fourth, it gives you organic growth and another level down in the table. Two call-outs on this page. First, in total, our fourth quarter and full-year actuals in blue were in line with our IR date thinking, as shown in the gray column. Second, when you move to the pinkish column, we've wrapped up our full year 26 organic budgeting, and our outlook is unchanged. We continue to see 26 brokerage segment organic growth of around 5.5%. That would be another fantastic year. So when you turn to page 5 in the corporate segment, just two small items. Our full year 26 estimate is unchanged from six weeks ago, and we're now providing a first look at our quarterly estimates. That said, we do have a little more work to do on the corporate segment quarterly budget, but full year is done. So maybe a tweak here or there between quarters, and we'll update you during our March IR day. Turning to page six, the investment income table. Three comments here. First, our 26 forecasts reflect current FX rates and changes in fiduciary cash balances. second our forward estimates continue to assume two future 25 basis point rate cuts over the course of the year one in april and another in september third the second line of this table shows you the amount of interest income we earned on funds that we are holding to buy ap clearly that that has gone away and you can see it won't repeat here in 26. more on the impact of this on our headline margins when i get to page eight staying on page six but shifting down to the the page to the rollover revenue table the fourth quarter 25 column subtotal of 145 million dollars for brokerage came in pretty close to our december estimate looking forward the pinkish columns to the right include estimated 26 revenues for brokers brokerage m a close through yesterday but then you'll see that clearly excludes assured partners we provide a separate page on page seven for assured partners and finally you'll see the same info for our risk management segment below that and then to this you must make your picks for what you think might be unknown M&A that hasn't closed yet throughout 2026 moving to page seven saying this is the same page that we have provided several times before it shows you that how we view ap both it now it includes third and fourth quarter 25 results and our full year 26 outlook a few comments here ap's fourth quarter revenues were in line with our expectations for the fourth quarter while expenses came in a little better than expected some of that is a little time in between now and and throughout 26 next the second item there could be some small refinements in the 26 numbers because we're still a week or so away from having AP budgets locked down that said we don't expect anything significant and of course we'll update you in the March IR day third be careful when rolling an AP into your 26 models you can use first and second quarter columns as is but for third and fourth quarter it is the Delta between the pink numbers and the blue numbers fourth also asks you to closely read the footnote. You're going to read three things in there. This table reflects the midpoint of our estimates and does not include any revenue or expense synergies. The non-cash figures shown on this page, which reflect depreciation and earn-out payable, are included within our estimates on page three, so don't double count there. And finally, you'll read that we still see annualized run rate synergies of $160 million by the end of 26, and then up to $260 to $280 million by early 28 i'm also more and more comfortable there could be upside to these numbers but give us a little more time before we update our estimates so this is a page of really really good news moving on to page eight this is a new page to help you better understand items that impact the comparability of our brokerage segment adjusted ebitdax margins in the past i've done a bridge in my verbal comments to get you past the noise from the impact of fx changes in interest income income from cash we're holding on assured partners and then when M&A that naturally runs lower margins rolls into our numbers we think these tables paint a better picture than all the words we're using before hopefully this will be more helpful when you build your 26 models since this is the first time we provided this page let me make a few comments first the upper upper blue table the punchline is we improved fourth quarter by about 50 basis points that's all due to the incredibly hard work by the team to control our costs the lower table gets you started on modeling 26 the blue section first level sets 25 by removing the investment income on funds we were holding to buy assured partners and also resets for estimated FX at current rates FX will likely change but at least it gets you something as of today the pink section of this table has ranges and margin impact commentary for what we see today the punchline is nothing has changed since our December IR day and we still see underlying margins expanding 40 to 60 basis points in 26 and we will also begin to benefit from synergies by being better together with AP you also see that we've had a line called unknown M&A with no estimate provided this is more of a placeholder for you to just think about other factors that could impact margin comparability all right let's go to page 9 to our tax credit carry forward page at December 31st we had a 713 million of tax credit carry forwards and you'll see enough the footnote there that says that we have another billion dollars of future tax tax benefits related to our purchase of AP the punchline from this page is the same it creates a nice cash flow sweetener to fund future M&A as for some modeling thoughts when you're modeling cash flows just assume our cash taxes paid will be about 10% of EBIT act for the foreseeable future and that should get you close all right let's move to cash capital management and M&A funding when I look at available cash on hand expected free cash flows and future investment grade borrowings over the next two years we might have close to ten billion dollars to fund M&A before using any stock at attractive multiples and this was an important point well we talk about organic a lot it's worth a reminder that our M&A strategy creates immediate shareholder value through a a nice price arbitrage, and it also creates long-term shareholder value through additional sales talent, niche expertise, and further scale. So those are my comments. An excellent 25 for our combined brokerage and risk management segments. Organic growth of 6%, more than 3.5 billion of estimated acquired revenues, adjusted EBITDA growth of 26%, and adjusted EBITDA margin of 35%, up 70 basis points this year on an underlying comparable basis. And it might be worth a reminder that since COVID hit us, every year our margins have marched higher. We're up over 400 basis points since then, and we still see many more opportunities to improve. Those are fantastic results. So we're on to 26. We have an unstoppable momentum driven by an amazing culture. I see 26 being another terrific year. Okay, back to you, Pat.

Thanks, Doug. operator let's go to questions and answers thank you the call is now open for questions if you have a question please pick up your handset and press star 1 on your telephone at this time if you are on the speakerphone please disable the function prior to pressing star 1 to ensure optimum sound quality you may remove yourself from the queue at any point by pressing star 2 additionally we ask that each participant limit themselves to one question and one follow-up question. Again, that is star one for questions. Our first question is from Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed.

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon.

Hey, Rob.

Hey, first question for you. You know, there's been a lot of talk about digital infrastructure, and, you know, I think some industry participants have commented that growth in the economy, excluding digital infrastructure like data centers is not all that inspiring. Could you just talk about how you're positioned to take advantage of digital infrastructure build out and somewhat related? I'm just curious how your construction practices have been performing recently.

Well, first of all, our construction practice is our largest practice. And as you know, we emphasize our vertical capabilities at every production opportunity. We have very strong vertical capabilities that about 90% of our new production around the United States, actually around the world, falls into those niches. As Doug made in his comments, when we do an acquisition, one of the benefits of that is we pick up people that add to our vertical capabilities. And, of course, one of those, everybody's focused on data centers, as we are as well. We have the ecosystem to do the job for clients across the entire span of what needs to go into a data set or construction site. You've got real estate issues. You've got supply chain issues. You've got energy issues, et cetera, et cetera. In fact, our head of construction, Brian Cooper, was just recently quoted in Leaders Edge, which is the broker's magazine, about all the things that we're pulling together in that ecosystem to be able to take advantage of that opportunity. and a great bit of that opportunity um is just the the subs and all the activity that has to go in to the whole process of building it there's a huge drain on capabilities locally just for the construction expertise and so i think every one of us that uh that has contact with those types of clients that are going to be building those centers out uh leasing them renting them whatever is going to need an awful lot of cover you're going to need an awful lot of capability in simply placing the huge amounts of cover needed, and we're right there in the middle of that mix.

Thank you. That's helpful. And I just had a follow-up on casualty pricing and your outlook for RPC embedded in your organic growth outlook for 2026, which is unchanged. It just seems like the RPC for casualty has dropped a little bit here versus the high single-digit levels earlier in the year. I'm just curious if you think that's a trend. I know there's been some companies out there talking about lost trend behaving a little bit better in more recent periods.

I think that basically we're not, I mean, I'm talking from a street perspective now. I'll let Doug comment on what we're seeing in our actual data, but no, we're not seeing people jumping on the casualty bandwagon here like they are property. Property is softening, there's no question about it i think that casually is still got a heavy focus from the underwriting community both on the reinsurance side and the primary side i'm not so sure that they're confident in past years uh reserves and so i'm not i'm not seeing the same kind of activity there that we see on the property side at all yeah rob if i read across my page on casualty renewals you know maybe at 22 or at 8.4, and 23 is somewhere between 8.4 and 8.7, 24 was 8.5, this year's 8.1.

So, I mean, we're just not seeing in our numbers any big pullback in casualty pricing. And all the, you know, systemic factors are naturally pushed. I just don't see softening coming in the casualty lines. So what do we assume for next year as we're thinking about it? we're assuming that casualty rates will be up in that seven to eight percent range.

Appreciate that. Thank you. Thanks, Rob.

Our next question is from Andrew Klingerman with TD Cowan. Please proceed.

Good evening. Um, first question is around talent retention. Uh, we've all been hearing about the coaching and, you know, it, it, it, it seems to be a big challenge for a lot of brokers out there could you talk about AJ Gallagher's ability to retain its producers in particular and you know how you see that playing out on your organic revenue both this year and well I think yeah I mean I'm happy to talk about that I'm very pleased about the fact and just our our retention of producers is is not changed uh against historical norms in any way uh literally

over the past number of years uh if you take a look at the the machine that we've built that does acquisitions i think we bring people in last year we've recruited through the acquisition process over 2 000 new production talents and we're lighting them up with tools and capabilities We like to tout the fact, frankly, that we're a brokerage firm run by brokers. We understand the sales process. Everybody from myself on down is involved in that sales process. People know that they can reach out and get that kind of support. Everybody understands how important production is. And frankly, we pay our people to produce, and they get a piece of that. And we're very happy with that. So I'd have to tell you that our retention rates remain strong. Do we ever get poached? Of course we do. and and i you know think that there are right ways to hire people and there's wrong ways to hire people and we're very defensive uh and we'll and we'll litigate where we feel somebody has done it the wrong way and we also do recruit from other competitors and we always try to do it the right way so i think that my answer to your question is i simply say number one very stable number two adding to that capabilities with headcount from acquisitions. As well, let me mention, let's not forget, about 600 young people in our internship every single year. We'll recruit a half of those or even sometimes more. That internship continues to grow. It has huge impact to the sales firepower that we bring into the company and has been a very big part of our success as an organization. So I'm pleased where we are. I'm not naive to the fact that there are people in the field trying to wave a magic wand that somehow their deal is going to be better and bigger. I would caution any of those that are enticed by that to take a hard look before they make the jump.

Yeah, just on a number base, percentage of producer retention is exactly dead flat. It's been that way since I've got it here and going back to 2019 and it's dead flat on it. So we're not having any real change in our producer retention statistic. And also, you're right at the nub, but this still is a business that needs producers to grow it and to sell it. So we think that being a broker run by brokers and having a sales and marketing mentality inside of our company is critical to maintain. We wake up every day, we work on it. We also invest a ton of money in sales tools. illustratively within two weeks our cutting edge just the digital experience that our clients our producers can use with our clients was on the desk every single salesperson at AP they're using it we're winning together already so the answer to this is we need people to sell we need people to produce and we need to keep fueling them with with tools and capabilities to make them better at the point of sale. And I got to tell you, if you look at who's trying to poach people right now, they just don't have it. We do. And I think you'll see some headlines that come out about it. That's a drop of water in the Pacific Ocean. It doesn't even cause a ripple. So we're pretty proud of our culture. We're pretty proud of the hundreds of millions of dollars that we're investing every year in technology and data and analytics to make our folks realize that this is the very best places and produce better than any other place. So we're going to lose a few people that can't see that, but we haven't seen any change in our retention.

I mean, every chance I get an opportunity to talk about the culture, I do. I think it's one of the most important aspects of our success.

And again, it's a sales culture driven by salespeople who honor the fact that selling insurance to and risk management services to people is a very honorable profession that's very helpful color um my follow-up question is around AI and disintermediating the intermediaries I've been getting that a lot and it's around kind of small commercial could you talk to what your thoughts are out on the horizon how that might affect your your small business production and one thing i just want to layer on to the last question um assured partners i'm assuming that assured partners is

aligned with everything you you just answered in my first question retention is very similar right coming aboard very happy we've probably met in person now 90 of the population of assured partners we've done an outreach where about 20 of our executives traveled the field visited offices did town hall meetings we attended their sales meeting in indianapolis before the close and met over a thousand people there and we've had six sessions in rolling meadows with three to five hundred of their people at each session and i'm telling you the excitement there wasn't one of those where i didn't meet someone who came up to me and said pat i can't tell you how i'm excited We wrote an account together because I had this and you had that. I'm like, there it is. That's the magic. So, yes, I think it clearly applies. In fact, the nice thing about AP is that still all these toys are now new things still. They're shiny objects. And it kind of builds a lot of excitement and momentum. So, let me go to the AI question because I'm the old man in the room. Okay, I addressed the same thing when we had the dawn of the Internet. Goodbye, intermediaries. this is all going to be done by me at home on my computer and that showed just not to be true well why is that and in particular in the small end and in personal lines guess what everybody has a need for some really good counsel and they want to talk to a person about what they should do and And I can turn the question right back to the investment community. Why would anybody use you guys? Why don't they just go to AI and say, pick my portfolio? Because guess what? People make a difference. So when that person who's a small account with five trucks and he or she is trying to make sure people are on the job and someone got sick and they're replacing that person, but they've got a commitment to build this building by a certain date, you think they've got the confidence to pick their insurance online? Even if ChatGBT says this is the way to go, it's just not happening. The trusted advisor is more important today because of AI than it was before AI because everybody's confused because AI tells it it knows exactly what you should do, and we all know it lies. So if you're comfortable doing that on your own, good luck.

Yeah, I'll turn it another way on it. I think that we stand to benefit for that, because if there is a product that can be sold with AI, we will likely be the ones that can put it out there and then put it out there, have AI, get it to the point of sale, and then have a producer do the final piece of it. The second thing is, remember, onboarding a customer is different than servicing a customer, too. So it might tell you what the best product to buy is. Let's just say that works. But then you've got to service that policy, and then you've got to handle the claims on it, and then you've got to interface with the carrier. I doubt that there's an AI tool that will sell a policy to somebody who will have a serious issue in their bar or restaurant, and then AI is going to tell AIG to pay the claim. It just doesn't work that way. There's going to have to be an adjuster there. There's going to have to be a counselor called the producer that helps them understand how the claims are paid. Maybe they can put some policies on the books, but the service load that will come along with that. Now, on the other hand, we see AI as being a terrific benefit for us to get better, faster. We have spent 20 years working on standardizing our processes, centralizing them in our low cost centers of excellence, driving the quality very high. AI is going to help us automate a lot of that. So the service layer, I think that we're going to be able to deliver a better service offering but when it comes to actually onboarding the customer maybe a little bit actually servicing the customer long term between the technology and the customer so we're we're spending a fair amount of money on AI we're getting some really terrific results especially like in our Gallagher Bassett unit for on the claims adjusting sign the claims resolution side we're seeing some nice speed to market that we can do. You know, just a lot of our back office functions could really benefit for us. And honestly, there's only three or four of us in the industry that are going to be able to devote the money into this that will actually deliver benefits. So it's a terrific tool. It's not a replacement for production. It'll improve service. And I think that service will help us improve our retention rates. But actually selling insurance, I think it's going Thanks for the helpful insights.

Our next question is from Mike Zarensky with BMO Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Hey, great. For Doug first, on page three of the press release, you know, you showed that $882 million and $171 million of M&A divestitures and other, you know, 4Q25 versus last year. I think that includes life sales, assumption changes, et cetera. I mean, do we need help breaking this out for us to help model the life sales and assumption changes in future periods? I know that's something maybe we could take offline, unless you want to think it's worth helping us here.

Yeah, I think maybe since this is more of a – it is an annual impact, and there is – but this quarterly impact is the bigger thing. Maybe we do take it offline. But maybe the punchline on this, as we think about all this change from the life sales and then our deferred revenue assumption changes, when you boil it all down and you look at it, what does it all mean? What does it all mean? Is that had we had exactly the same level of life sales as we did in 24, and if we had had the same level of service quality improvement in 25 as we did 24, we improved our service considerably, just not as much as we had done in 24, it's all going to boil down to $25 million of EBITDA. So on, you know, $4.8 billion of EBITDA this year, that's the kind of magnitude of what we're talking about in here in a lot of these quarterly ones. So we've tried to put that in a bucket, tried to exclude it from our organic growth because it was clouding the true underlying organic growth of the company because of these things bouncing around, especially on a quarterly basis. So as you unpack it with Ray after this call, you're going to find it all next day.

Okay, understood. thank you um i guess uh my follow-up is uh just on the um pricing environment and how it impacts your organic i think you know if you know you guys have some good charts showing you know the industry's pricing levels versus your organic you know going back 30 plus years and you can see that when pricing goes to very high levels um there's kind of like a decoupling right uh your organic doesn't go to you know 15 or 20 um but you know it it improves but i think more importantly when it pricing falls like it is today your organic actually decouples and it stays you know usually positive so i'm just curious in a market that you're describing of properties very soft and cows you might say stay hard uh harder is there any is that dynamic still hold or is it is there any nuances to kind of given with this it's a tale of two markets property versus casualty as we think about 26 and and further well i'm going to try to i'm going to try to get my head around that question so if i don't please give me some help but uh first of all as prices are running up you're exactly right of course our revenue doesn't track directly with that our job what we sell to our clients is mitigating that increase so that's where we counsel them on when

they should opt in on coverage and opt out. And, you know, our background and our history is the whole concept of risk retention. That's the birth of Gallagher Bassett. And when you see rates go up, the alternative market, I guess we still call it that, is one of the fastest growing aspects of the market where people like ourselves counsel our clients on don't pay the premium, take the risk yourself. And then, of course, when it comes down, we don't tend to migrate the other way as quickly either because there is a portion of opting in. In our prepared remarks, we talked about the fact that in the reinsurance side, we are likely to see this year off cycle some additional purchases of reinsurance. That's exactly the kind of thing I'm talking about. That translates into the retail market as well. So in this cycle, I do think what we've been saying for the last number of years, which I think is holding true, is that you can't talk about the cycle. We're very clear on what's happening in the property line. By the way, our clients deserve that. Property went up through the roof and underwriters needed the premium. And now they're getting a decrease on that because it's been a benign loss year. But if you take a look at the other cycle casually, we're still seeing increases there because maybe the capital that's been deployed isn't necessarily adequate at this point to give discounts. So what we're seeing is cycles within the cycles. So D&O, as you might recall, over the last three or four years, came down quickly. Capital flowed into those rates three or four years ago and brought the price right down. And now you're seeing it maybe bottom out and start to increase again. Workers' comp, interestingly enough, has been pretty flat for a decade, which I find very interesting given that medical indemnity is such a big part of that product. shows you what managed care has done for the line and then you have casually separately and property separately so i don't know if i actually got my head around your question but you add all those together and what you've seen in the past will probably reoccur this time as rates go up and down in all these lines okay you know i think you got you helped i was just trying to see if maybe this cycle could play out differently but uh sounds like it it'll be uh similar to it will probably because you got to look at the individual lines so every quarter we report pay attention to what we're seeing in casualty we're seeing in comp

and property and sometimes the property will break between the cat exposed property and just general property we'll break that out when that happens yeah we tend to talk a lot about cat property rates but if you throw it all in a bucket with let's not discount the impact of fire and convective storms etc our property book is down if the pricing is down four or five percent overall so this isn't a twenty percent down market when you look at what was happening and and when carriers didn't have the deep insights into their their their lost cost trends as they do now you had a little more volatility in it i believe that this that sales folks that have the tools that we do if they're If you're going in and trying to talk to your customer about a 30% rate increase, now I'm going to talk to you about kind of a flat renewal. You can see our wares and see what other services you get from Gallagher. So I think that our customers will be wise. They'll hop back in for more coverage, and that will stunt the decrease a little bit in property rate decline.

Our next question is from Elise Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Please proceed. Hi, thanks.

Good evening. My first question is on margin, right? I know, Doug, you went through the new page in your CFO commentary. It seems like the margin, if I add up the pieces, it's right around 60 basis points in 26. Appreciate the underlying component has been unchanged, obviously a lot of pushes and pulls. When we think beyond 26, obviously I guess M&A and interest rates and fiduciary could always come into play, but is it right to think that just from a forward modeling perspective beyond that, that we'd kind of be back into the thinking of, right, like 4% plus organic and kind of, you know, that 50 basis points of underlying margin expansion or something within that ballpark?

Yep, your recollection is right. That's what we've said and we still believe that, you know, we believe that, you know, you can start seeing some margin expansion at 4%, and then, you know, you go up 5%, 6%, 7%, you get more margin spent. The other thing, too, is that I think you'll really see we're going to have noise in the first two quarters of next year because of the lost interest income on funds we're holding for AP. So that's going to cloud the headline story. So a little patience with us so you can cull that down and not really get to that underlying expansion. But also, we're going to start seeing the synergies come through from the AP acquisition. And that's going to also, we'll break the pieces out, probably can do that pretty well in 26. By the time we get to 27, it might be hard for me to tell you whether that savings, And did we get better because of legacy Gallagher? Did we get better because of legacy AP coming together? So to your question about looking out for 27, the numbers there get you to a pretty good spot. But just remember, there could be another $100 million, $120 million of cost savings that we get out throughout 27 so that by the time we get to early 28, we're kind of at that $260 to $280 million additional profit. You're looking at it the right way. your recollection is this that we still see that this is the same the environment that we can improve margins starting at four percent uh so an answer to your question i think is yes to your question uh but with all that background i think that we've got two levers that are going to be pulled or just the natural increase uh as we grow more and then also the rolling center thanks um and then my second question i guess goes back um to organic and maybe a slight follow-up on mike's question right so you guys you know change the definition right to tie to what you outlined um in december but i think like the two pieces right the the life and the revenue assumption changes

probably would have been a negative three in the fourth quarter which feels large i guess it would have been kind of net break even in the other three quarters so it feels like from what you said doug it's like 25 million of ebitda so these things are like 70 million of revenue and maybe more pronounced in the Q4. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about this correctly. And I guess maybe it was the higher end of what you guys had guided in December. And I guess even if these things bounce back, right, they'll stay in the core commissions and fees and be backed out and there shouldn't be that big of, I guess, overall EPS and revenue noise.

Yeah, let me see if I can unpack that a little bit for you. First of all, you know, the life sales in the fourth quarter came in at negative one and we were guiding zero to one and then the the deferred revenue came in at negative two versus a negative one to two so we were it was kind of within the range of estimation that we that we had there I think it's important to understand though that you know the 2% for the deferred revenue assumption changes if we updated our rather deferred revenue assumptions proratally throughout the year versus doing it on a quarterly basis kind of like annual reserve reviews that the carriers do it's a very laborious process takes a long time there's lots of surveys you'd spread that uh you know the the one percent for the full year across four quarters and it would have been 25 basis points of impact so the way you have to think about it this table plums and gets you to what do we believe our underlying organic growth is. What's the business running? And we saw it running five percent in the fourth quarter and we see it running in about the five and a half percent range for 2026, six percent for 25 in total. So you have to think about this as a quarterly discussion, not an annual one.

Okay, thank you. That's helpful.

Our next question is from Tracy Beguigli with Wolf Research.

Please proceed thank you good evening uh sticking with organic revenue um there were some areas within brokerage on the fourth quarter where you're ahead or below your plan even though investor day was in late december um can you add some color on your experience within specialty u.s wholesale where you're somewhere ahead and reinsurance where you were behind and sticking with reinsurance if you could add commentary on how one one renewals may play into organic revenue for 2026. all right let me tackle that.

First of all, when you talk about the reinsurance number, we were forecasting about 10% organic growth, and it came in at eight for the fourth quarter. It is an extremely small quarter for reinsurance in terms of dollars. The difference between that 8% and that 10% is $1.5 million. So when you think about the degree of estimation that can change on a percentage, it that's that's what that's causing it I think you had another question about specialty that came in a couple points better you know I think that our we had a really good wholesale month and it came in strong at the end of the year as we were putting some placements to bed so you know again you know it was probably another four or five million dollars of revenue something like that So the degree of estimation risk around a percentage point on some of these is pretty small. I think notably, though, you know, we thought we were going to do 5% in the retail P&C. Well, that's a $3 billion business, and we came in at 5%. So what we thought on the big business, there's not, you know, the law of large numbers helps us get those numbers a little bit. a little bit uh and just to follow up as well i think the one one reinsurance renewals were a little bit worse than what was expected at um investor day so like how does that play into your guide for 26. i don't know where you picked that up in our commentary is there something you heard that's wrong yeah i don't think it's softer but i don't think our performance is weaker okay people are buying some more coverage that's i just want to make sure we said it right okay so that that piece is helpful um you reiterated your prior remarks of 10 billion to deploy towards

m a without the need to issue stock so what i thought is i looked at the bottom of the top 100 brokers um and we as we estimated that it would take more than 65 deals uh to get to exhaust that full 10 billion of funds. And that number rises if you focus on real micro targets with less than 20 million of annual revenue. So that's just a lot of deals. The playbook is great, but I'm wondering how feasible it is to close on a large volume of deals. And if that doesn't transpire, how would you deploy any dry powder?

First of all, let me address the deals. One of the things that I think we have that a lot of other firms don't is we've got people in the field who have done deals already. We now have hundreds of offices around the country organized in regions and zones, both on the property casualty side and the benefit side, and they're out talking every day to that exact population that you're talking about. And the ones that are a million, two million, we don't even announce them. And we bring deals to the table like that literally every week. And so what we've got in terms of the ability to vacuum up, hoover up a lot of these littler brokers is I think a very unique opportunity is they begin to realize that they don't have the tools. They have one or two big accounts they want to take care of, and we're a great place to build their career, their family's career. At an IRJ sometime, I might be able to address actually the people that have taken advantage of that opportunity. And then we're ready and willing to talk to the big ones. And when you take about, when you take that dry powder, having just spent 13.5 billion dollars and realize that there just aren't that many people in the marketplace that can do that, I think we've got both ends of the spectrum covered better than anyone else in the market.

Yeah, let me give you some other stats. So you go back to 2014, we did a total of 59 deals in 2014 when we are half as big as we are. We can do acquisitions in Canada, in the UK, in every single line of business. So being able to do 60 deals, we did 59 and 14. We did 58 and 12. We did 46 and 18 and 19. So, you know, and that doesn't include the million or $2 million, the smaller ones that we kind of talk about. But these are just on the sheet that I have here, if anything. So I believe that we have substantial opportunity to continue to clip off 50 to 75 deals a year and not even blank and doug mentioned it's a global practice it's a global opportunity there's seven trillion dollars of premium floating around this globe spreading risk those are swissery numbers we touch about 250 billion dollars what do you think the opportunity is it's huge the other thing too is you know so many of these agencies are owned by baby boomers 60 000 of these brokers around the world if we can clip off 75 a year i i Well, I have confidence in the team.

Look at the numbers that are put out by, I can't do them off the top of my head, I didn't know to have them in front of you, but we're probably approaching over 900 acquisitions this year that have been announced and pick those up from Marsh, Barry and Optus Partners and others. Very helpful context.

Thank you.

Thanks, Tracy.

Our next question is from Gregory Peters with Raymond James. Please proceed.

Hey, good afternoon. um so i i ordinarily wouldn't do this focusing on the fourth quarter numbers but um i am getting some inbound emails on it so i think it's worth um spending a minute on it and there's there's just some confusion over what the street consensus has if they're doing the the old definition or the new definition you know the five percent looks great we're just trying to and i know what is is inside my numbers. I don't know what's inside the consensus, and maybe the consensus has different numbers. I wouldn't ordinarily do this, guys, but I'm getting inbound emails asking me about it, so I thought I'd throw it out there for you to comment on it.

All right, let me hit a couple things on consensus. Let's start with EPS. Consensus, I think, was around $2.69. For brokerage, we posted $2.74. Risk management was $0.21. Corporate segment, the midpoint of what we told the street was 56. I think the street may have had 55, and we were a couple pennies less than that. So when it comes to EPS, I can comment on the consensus on it. When you look at what down within the organic growth models, I think that I would hope that what's in the models would have been the 5% we told you in December to compare when you ferret out the noise or exclude the noise from live sales and that. So I don't know if I have it either, Greg. So I don't know. I'm kind of digging through some papers when I'm talking. Maybe I can come. If consensus listened, if the sell side looked at what we said in December, we posted exactly that.

Well, it is consistent with what you said, but I don't have visibility on consensus. I wouldn't have asked you this unless I was in a question.

I just don't have the information in front of me. I can probably dig it out what each different analyst has, but even our transparency into that is at all.

Yeah, that's fair. Hey, can you go to page seven, the Assured Partners Disclosure? And as you were walking through that table, you said, hey, be careful about the third and fourth quarter of 26 and what I'd like you to come back is re-explain that. One of the line items that caught my attention in there is if I look at the fourth quarter 26 projected free tax income from assured partners at 194 down from the 201 in the fourth quarter 25. So it's just, I know there's a reason behind it, but you said some other comments are on this table and I just wanted to go back and revisit that, please.

I got you, Greg, I understand. First, when you build your models, we think you should be adding in rollover revenues from back on page six because of our acquisition program. We've talked about that for years, right? When you get to page seven, what I was fearful of is that you would pick up the pink section and you would add in $745 million of revenue for 26, when the fact is we already have assured partners in our numbers for fourth quarter 25 so there is no rollover impact so if I would have changed this table to be a rollover revenue table it would say rollover revenues are 880 million in the first quarter 755 in the in the second quarter 509 million that's the delta between 8 15 and 306 and that would be 40 million bucks in the fourth quarter right so what we're trying to do is that the peach the pink section here is showing what a full year would be not necessarily the rollover impact and so that's why i said be careful you can you can use exactly the first and the second quarter numbers drop them into your models but take the delta between third quarter 26 and third quarter 25 and drop that into your models for the rollover impact of of assured partners that doesn't have you know synergies in it this is a midpoint of the range so there could be some you know some numbers around that that go one way or another uh you know we're doing our budgets of assured partners here and so it could change a little bit by quarter but this gets you started and as you're trying to to, you know, project, you know, next year. I just was fearful you would add $775 million in the fourth quarter.

I got that. Can you go, can you just address, now I'm hung up on this fourth quarter 26 number, the 194 versus the 201, fourth quarter 25. Why would that be lower in the fourth quarter 26 pre-tax than it was in the fourth quarter 25? I'm sorry to beat this one up.

The static table that we provided to you before, that number will likely change when we get to March. And also, maybe another way to think about it is the $201 million. When I said there was a little bit of timing in that one, I wouldn't expect that timing to repeat when we get out to 2026. In a perfect world, it would say $201 million over there. It says $194 million versus $201 million. kind of the same number.

Thanks for your time.

Our next question is from Andrew Anderson with Jeffries. Please proceed.

Hey, thanks. Maybe just back on M&A, if I think about some of the disclosures around term sheets and annualized revenues, it does seem to be coming in a little bit over the past few quarters. And I think part of the idea with AP was it would give you access to some new M&A pipeline. Is the right way to read this, maybe that new pipeline just hasn't materialize yet, or the quality of these term sheets is better than they were in the past?

You know, here's the thing. I think there's a natural slowdown as we've been sitting here. You know, it took nine months for us to get this approved to the DOJ. That freezes people in their behavior. We've been together now, let's call it arguably five months now. I think the teams are starting to gel. They're starting to understand that they have a two-prong growth objective as a branch manager. They've got to grow their branch organically, and they've got to find good merger partners. What I really love about it is we've got 300 more advocates out in the field right now looking for opportunities for deals. That will naturally improve our deal pipeline. 90% of our acquisitions are sourced at the local level. It's not like we've got a team of bird dogs that are running around trying to call on 400 opportunities but we've got we've got a thousand different branches around the world now maybe more than that that every day they're talking to their competitors and that's where we get all of these you know when Tracy was asking me can we do 75 of them boy I would think that that a thousand different voices out there will do a pretty good job of sourcing out of 60,000 opportunities I also believe there's a this may maybe a little systemic slowdown here as sellers come to the realization that maybe valuations are coming down and it takes a while for people to realize there's a new norm in that.

Thanks. And then just on that margin table, as you think about the AP synergies in 26, is that including both revenue? I guess it's including both revenue and expense synergies, but I would think the revenue synergies are coming online pretty quickly since it's just changing some contracts and the contingents and supplementals in there? Is that the right way to say it?

Actually, no. I think that they'll both be at a steady pace throughout the next two years and everything. But remember, revenue synergies could be from cross-sells. They could be trading with ourselves, wholesale London markets doing that. Joint selling could be some of the revenue. And then you've got the carrier contract that still take, it takes us a couple of years to get those rolled out and have the combined value proposition communicated with the carrier. So probably not as fast as maybe you have in your mind, but I'm not in your mind. But I think expense and revenue synergies are going to grow kind of at equal pace over the next two years.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Alex Scott with Barclays. Please proceed.

Hey, I just wanted to go back to Assured Partners and see if you could comment a bit about, you know, how their growth is coming in. I know we can, you know, see some of the numbers you disclosed with revenue and so forth, but I'd just be interested if you could talk about, you know, their organic growth and, you know, how that's progressing relative to your plans and, you know, what does sort of underline and underpinning your estimates.

All right, so let's go back. When we bought Assured Partners, we merged. We thought that they were running organic about a ton less than us. Terrific sales culture, terrific producers out there, and I'm seeing that still about the same. Therein lies the opportunity. I think that us being able to deploy our tools across their terrific sales folks is going to get them back. They're organic growth close to ours as we go forward. So I would say there'd be no dilutive impact of their margins as we hit 2027 when they start being in organic numbers.

And I can tell you from the visits that we've had, as I mentioned earlier, we've had a whole bunch of them come to basically trade fairs in Chicago, in Rolling Meadows. They are really turned on by the opportunities. And so it's put a big push behind them, a win behind their back, if you will, to go out and talk to people that maybe they didn't write before. Stories change. We've got more resources. Let me bring some in to see you. It's pretty exciting.

That's all helpful. Thank you. And on the M&A pipeline, could you comment a bit just around, you know, how you're seeing valuations and maybe if there's any difference between larger versus smaller acquisitions and if there's been any move? Yeah, they're coming down.

I can't remember the last time. You know, these are over 10 on the nice Tuckian acquisition, you know, 12 to 13.

Okay, thank you.

One more heads up for everybody on the phone. We have got, you know, this is a great call. We're going to try to answer the next five or six questions a little faster, just because there's a line of folks that want to get some questions in. So if we seem like we're just giving you a yes, no, or whatever, it's just out of fairness to the other folks that are in the queue.

Our next question is from Paul Newsome with paper Sandler. Please proceed.

I'll be a good person just to ask one question, and I apologize if I missed it, but uh brown brown was talking about movements from admitted and non-emitted um any thoughts on if that's happening in a material way for your book as well it's not there you go short paul what can i do i was trying to be funny here paul but the fact is no we're not seeing a lot of that we have the data on that and uh the wholesale markets are doing a pretty good job of renewing their business which is good for our clients and good for us good for rps but we are not seeing the kind of movements in a softening market now part of that is you're dealing here in a softening market with primarily property well guess what that found its way to the ens markets for a reason and it certainly wasn't about five percent increases or decreases so no there's not a big jump back into the primaries at this point.

Fantastic. I'll let somebody else ask a question. Thanks, guys.

Thanks, Paul. Our next question is from Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Please proceed.

Yeah, thanks. Pat, you'd previously given pricing by customer size. Do you have an update for that?

Basically flat across the book right now. We talked about that before we did this. There's no sense to put it in my prepared comments. So really, what we're seeing on large accounts in small accounts is they're basically you'll call we were seeing large accounts get a bit more discount as the market changed a bit and now both big medium and small accounts all three are getting about the same decreases and increases interestingly enough on the casualty book thank you our next question is from david moto maiden with evercore isi please proceed hey thanks good Good evening.

Just had another question on the organic and the deferred revenue assumption changes that were 2% this quarter and 1% for the year. I know you guys have the new definition now of organic, but just on these assumption changes, is that something that you guys can sort of implement any sort of process improvements or anything in terms of assumptions starting at the beginning of the year to just have less of a potential drag in the future? Anything there that you guys are looking at?

Well, listen, when I look at it, when you look at the last three years of this, for the full years, it's zero and zero, zero and zero, zero and negative one. So doing a wholesale change in our process because of a 1% change. I understand the quarterly noise and we're in December and we're talking about it beforehand and we're signaling it. That's why we're trying to do it if this were just an annual if we only reported the results annually you would never ask us a question about it it would be so minor and so i think putting a new process and of course we'd take a look at it but to have have you know hundreds and hundreds of people update surveys and and they're they're you know every three months uh i just i just i think it adds a burden to try to look past the quarterly noise look at an annual we've done we've done a good job of making sure that you it didn't cloud the fact that we're running a five percent organic growth business right now and we see that going forward got it so you would think that would be a zero for 2026 actually like it to be a positive number next year as we improve our service quality we can do if we can improve it a little bit more next year but i'm we've done a really great job of getting our service to the point where we just don't make mistakes anymore we provide certificates of insurance over, you know, within 99.9% accuracy within 24 hours. You know, it's just that, you know, but years ago, that was taking a little bit longer, several days to do, and our auto ID cards and our policy review. So we're getting to the point where the chassis is so industrial strength right now. And the bigger we get, the impact would be much smaller on that.

Thank you.

Our next question is from Mayor Seals with KPW. Please proceed.

Great. Thanks so much. I'll try and be quick too, to the extent that there's disruption in the London wholesaling market as one of the major players there builds a retail platform in the US, is that an opportunity for RPS or does the fact that Gallagher has retail operations itself make that a tougher sell?

It's a big opportunity, the answer is yes. Both in RPS and in our London-based wholesaling operations with customers sail through that unnamed Houghton company and we're looking for a new outlet for their wholesale placements.

Okay, perfect. That's what I wanted to know. Thank you.

Our next question is from Katie Sackis with Autonomous Research. Please proceed.

Hi, just one from me. I wanted to zoom in really quickly on the benefits brokerage and consulting outlook. It looks stable versus 2025 at 4%. Health inflation doesn't seem like it's incrementally changed this year relative to last, and maybe that's going to be less of an uplift to employee benefits organic. Can you kind of walk us through what you're thinking on what's going to keep that 4% organic growth rate unchanged this year?

You crackled at something there, 37 words before you finish. Can you just ask the nub of the question again one more time? Because we just got to crackle from somewhere.

Yeah, sorry about that.

You know, it doesn't seem like health inflation might be as much of an uplift to employee benefits organic this year as it may have been last can you walk us through what you're thinking on keeping the four percent benefits brokerage organic growth rate stable yeah here's the thing is that you know truly a lot of our services are priced per employee per month basis so as rates go up it doesn't necessarily follow that like you would see in the pnc side but what it does do is it does cause uh It does present many opportunities for more advisory projects that come in as they see increasing medical costs, increasing premiums of how do they change their programs, how do they change their deductible, gives us more pharmacy benefit review engagements. So we feel pretty good about the fact that as you have pressure on your labor force benefit costs, it leads to more opportunities for us to go in and give some advice.

I also feel like it's going to give our consulting operation a boost because I believe everyone is going to shop their employee benefits. I think everyone is fed up with health care cost inflation, and while they like the people they've been consulting with, and it's a very sticky business, I think they're open to the kind of marketing efforts that we have now, the size, the scope, and our capabilities, even in the smaller side of the market. people are think are just a little bit more willing to listen right now and we do have some creative solutions there are things that we're doing in telemedicine as i said in my prepared comments and what have you that are different than what the small local broker we just when we closed on ap what we found is we have over the last 20 years it most most benefits in pc people were housed together and embedded in the same pnl and we literally 30 years ago decided that we would break those apart certainly looking for cross-selling synergies working together not not changing it to to not be gallagher but to work together in a truly separate benefits capability separate benefits operation and company i think that's been very very successful for us and it proves the point i think to the buyers that we do look at it as a different practice as a different profession in the sense of its advisory nature and they should be listening to us now and i think there's a lot more opportunity to build our pipeline than there has been even in the last few years thank you very much for the color our last question is from ryan tennis with

cantor fitzgerald please proceed okay so yeah we got the super bowl next weekend um so in the spirit of that doug uh put you on the spot a little bit here slide eight's helpful a little bit confusing can you just give us an over-under and 2026 EBITDA margins, the way you're thinking about it? All right, so you do have a little bit of a bad connection on it, and so let me see if I can repeat what you said. You're saying where do I think EBITDA margins are going to land for full year 26?

An over-under, an over-under, an over-under. It's a guess.

We're going to be over.

Over what? What number?

The numbers, listen, you guys got to, we're putting the range. We're going to try to tighten down these ranges there that are on page 8 of the CFO commentary document. But I think that, I feel, I told you, I think we have some upsides and synergies. And I think that our teams are continuing to get better at everything.

Hey, Ryan, get Doug off the hot seat and call FanDuel, will you?

No, no, no. So, yeah, so, like, my follow-up, I've been wrecking my brain on the numbers. I mean, Pat, you can help me, but should I give the four-and-a-half in the Seahawks? What do you guys think? Four-and-a-half in what?

Broke up, what? I lay the points with the Seahawks.

I don't know. Bears are out of it. We're not as focused on that as me or me.

All right. Thanks, Dan.

Thanks, man. Well, thanks, everybody. i think that's our last question i want to thank you again for being with us this afternoon as we said we we had a great quarter and a great 25. uh we're very excited about 26. our new colleagues that have joined us not just from assured partners but woodruff sawyer and dozens and dozens of others around the world thank them there's a lot of competition out there for acquisitions and i think they made the right choice we've got 71 000 plus colleagues and i to make sure i say thank you to them i do believe we have the most talented team in the industry and it shows so we look forward to speaking with the investment community community again in march during our investor day and have a good evening thanks very much for being with us

thank you this does conclude today's conference you may disconnect your lines at this time