FLY · Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Track FLY — free

$20.67 -0.45 (-2.13%)

Russell 2000 member Rebalance outlook locked

Market Cap

$3.46B

167.40M

Up next

Next earnings call

Oct 25, 2026 Est · unconfirmed · in 8 wks

FQ3-26 quarter ends

~Sep 30, 2026 Est

Latest filing: 10-Q

filed Aug 11, 2026

Equibles Research

our published analysis of this company

Research Thesis August 5, 2026

Rocket Lab's $2.2B backlog makes the bull case bigger than Neutron

Rocket Lab's record Q1 and $2.2B backlog show the bull case no longer rests on Neutron alone. The proposed Iridium merger could add a recurring-services engine, while financing, dilution and execution remain the price of that upside.
Research Thesis July 16, 2026

Rocket Lab: Backlog is converting, but the $39B market cap is paying for a Neutron debut the company has yet to validate

Rocket Lab enters Q2 2026 with record backlog of $2,219.8M and guided revenue of $225.0M–$240.0M, yet the stock trades at -55.2% from its $150.23 high on a $39.0B market cap against $679.6M of trailing revenue — a gap the equity-funded growth model and the un-flown Neutron debut have to close.

Equibles Rating

blended score · not investment advice

Overall

Sell

SellHoldBuy

Technical Strong Sell Momentum Weak Sentiment Neutral Fundamentals Excellent Quant / Vol Very High

Market backdrop VIX 14.9 · calm Equity put/call 0.70

Technical

price trend

Strong Sell

50 / 200-day cross No cross

Price vs 200-day avg −23%

below

Price vs 50-day avg −11%

below

RSI (14) 38

neutral

MACD trend Negative

52-week position 10%

near low

Momentum

relative strength

Weak

1-month return −4%

trailing

6-month return +9%

trailing

YTD return −6%

this year

Relative strength −4%

vs S&P · 6-mo

Sentiment

smart money

Neutral

Trend (MA cross) No cross

50d $24 › 200d $28 — 200d above 50d

Institutional flow Accumulating

+25% holders QoQ · +95 funds added

Insider flow Flat

No net insider activity over 90 days

Short interest Rising

6.65% of float · ▲ +1.6% MoM · 3.2 days cover

Volume signal Normal

Volume near normal

Institution breadth Multi-yr high

274 holders — near 1-yr high, broad support

Squeeze score 57

elevated · 0–100

Fundamentals

Excellent

Revenue growth +163%

Y/Y

Gross margin 19%

expanding

EPS growth +77%

Y/Y

Free cash flow $-237.8M

Balance sheet $10.5M

net cash

Quant / Vol

risk profile

Very High

Volatility 111%

annualized · 1-yr

Max drawdown −70%

past year

ATR 8.1%

of price · 14-day

Blended from price, momentum, positioning, fundamentals & volatility · daily-close · not investment advice. Market backdrop is context, not part of the score.

Technicals

trend & momentum for long-term holders Strong Sell

4 · 2 · 0

50 / 200-day cross

No cross Neutral

Price vs 200-day avg

−23% Bearish

Price vs 50-day avg

−11% Bearish

RSI (14)

38 Neutral

MACD trend

Negative Bearish

52-week position

10% Bearish

Market signals — smart money & positioning

Bullish · 2 of 6

Trend (MA cross) No cross

50d $24 › 200d $28 — 200d above 50d

Institutional flow Accumulating

+25% holders QoQ · +95 funds added

Insider flow Flat

No net insider activity over 90 days

Short interest Rising

6.65% of float · ▲ +1.6% MoM · 3.2 days cover

Volume signal Normal

Volume near normal

Institution breadth Multi-yr high

274 holders — near 1-yr high, broad support

Price context

position in its 52-week range

Range low $17 Now $21 · 10% Range high $59

vs 200-day avg -23% vs 50-day avg -11%

Illustrative technical + ownership context — a signal mix, not investment advice.

Versus peers

Aerospace & Defense — same industry group

Open screener →

Company	Mkt cap	YTD	Rev growth Y/Y	P/E	Short % shares
FLY Firefly Aerospace Inc. this stock	$3.46B	-5.6%	+163.0%	—	6.6%
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Corp	$1.87T	—	—	—	1.4%
GE General Electric Co	$344.15B	+9.0%	+18.5%	39.1	1.3%
RTX RTX Corp	$285.33B	+13.3%	+17.1%	37.3	1.0%
EADSF Airbus SE/ADR	$180.46B	-2.7%	—	—	0.1%

Peers by industry group · P/E from as-reported trailing EPS · short % is of shares outstanding

At a glance

key data from every section

Ownership

Institutional Holders Accumulating

Holders

274

% held: 63.1%
Net QoQ: +30.4M sh
Top holder: AE INDUSTRIAL PARTNERS, LP

Held Float

View

Held by Funds

Fund positions

186

View

Short & Settlement

Short Interest Rising

Shares short

11.1M

Days to cover: 3.2d
Change: +178.0K sh

View

Short Volume

Short vol %

44%

As of: Aug 31, 2026

Short Total

View

Fails to Deliver

FTD shares

Value: $264
As of: Aug 12, 2026

View

Off-Exchange

Off-exchange %

44.0%

Week of: Jul 27, 2026

Off-exch Lit

View

Financials

Revenue (FY)

$159.9M

Net income (FY): $-298.3M
EPS diluted: $-4.83

View

Filings

SEC Filings

Latest

8-K

Filed: Aug 11, 2026
This year: 14

View

Proposed Sales

Value

$3.3M

Shares: 82.0K
Filed: May 13, 2026

View

Exempt Offerings

Offering

$22.0M

Filed: Jul 8, 2026

View

Earnings & Events

Earnings Calls

Last call

Aug 11, 2026

View

Performance

	5D	20D	120D	MTD	YTD
FLY	-8.6%	-3.5%	+8.9%	+3.9%	-5.6%
SPY	+0.5%	+1.2%	+13.3%	+2.7%	+12.5%
vs SPY	-9.0%	-4.8%	-4.4%	+1.2%	-18.1%

Key facts CIK 1860160 CUSIP 31816X106 13F (30d) 217 filings 216 filers Visit website Investor relations

FLY · Firefly Aerospace Inc.

Price & Indicators

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Equibles Research

Equibles Rating

Technicals

Versus peers

At a glance

Performance