Stride, Inc. Q4 FY2024 Earnings Call

Good afternoon and welcome to the Stride 4th Quarter Fiscal 2024 Earnings Call. Please note that this call is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now turn the call over to Timothy Casey, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Thank you, and good afternoon. Welcome to Stride's fourth quarter and year-end earnings call for fiscal 2024. With me on today's call are James Rue, Chief Executive Officer, and Donna Blackman, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, today's conference call and webcasts are accompanied by a presentation that can be found on the Stride Investor Relations website. Please be advised that today's discussion of our financial results may include certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures is provided in the earnings release issued this afternoon and can also be found on our investor relations website. In addition to historical information, this call may also involve forward-looking statements. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors as described in the company's latest SEC file. These statements are made on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and the company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. Following our prepared remarks, we will answer any questions you may have. I will now turn this call over to James. James? Thanks, Tim, and good afternoon,

everyone. I started this year by talking about my belief that stride can change the future of education. I outlined some of the macro trends in our country precipitating the need for change. Throughout the year, we've continued to see these trends play out. High parent dissatisfaction and surveys showing over 70% of families considering changing schools over the past 12 months. And we continue to see students reconsidering the traditional college pathway in favor of a more skills-based education. I think that the results we posted for this year demonstrate and validate the longevity of our model. We are delivering tomorrow's education today. Students and families are looking for something different and finding it at stride. We're providing real choice for families. Choice that is affordable and accessible to anyone, anywhere, and at any time. Our offerings are personalized, career-forward, and tech-driven. And that translated into another record year. We crossed $2 billion in revenue for the first time. We had record profitability and free cash flow. Earnings per share increased 58% year-over-year and has now grown almost 700% since 2020. We achieved our highest gross margin in over five years. We had our highest in-year enrollment ever, pushing us to the highest enrollment level in the company's history, even larger than during the pandemic highs. And we finished the year with more enrollments than we started for the second straight year. As I mentioned last year, even with our strong results, including multiple years of near or above double-digit revenue growth, continued margin expansion, and an attractive future growth profile, our valuation multiples still lag the market. In addition, the market continues to recognize our superior product and service offerings. Stride was named the EdTech Breakthrough Remote Learning Solution Provider of the Year. Our MedCerts programs won a bronze medal for best use of AI in health tech from the Merit Awards. Our game-based learning offerings won almost too many awards to list, including the prestigious Royal Society of Chemistry Horizon Prize for our periodic rescue game in Minecraft, a gold Stevie for our Minecraft Education Worlds game, two bronze Stevie's, one each for our MathB and ELL World Language games, and our professional development offerings won two gold stevies we also continue to see early traction with our other new product offerings including our tutoring solution which gained formal acceptance across a number of states now I understand everybody wants some color on our fall enrollment season please remember that it is still early and we have a long way to go to close out the season strong having said that early indicators look positive demand And, as I have said before, we define as application volumes, continue to be strong and are pacing ahead of last year, consistent with the pacing we have seen for much of the prior year. So, I feel confident that we will grow our enrollment for this fall and we remain on track for our long-term goals. All of this demonstrates what I started my comments with, that Stride is offering tomorrow's education today. Now I'll pass the call to Donna.

Donna. Donna? Thanks, James, and good evening, everyone. We finished fiscal year 2024 with revenue of $2.04 billion, an increase of 11% over the prior fiscal year. Adjusted operating income for the year was $293.9 million, up 46% from last year, and adjusted operating revenue income margin improved 350 basis points. Our results for the year further demonstrate the sustained demand for full-time online options in the U.S. K-12 market. Throughout the year, we saw continued strength in in-year enrollment coupled with strong retention. This led to us once again exceeding our revenue and AOI guidance, and it also means we remain firmly on track toward achieving our fiscal year 2028 targets. Returning to our full-year results in more detail, career-learning middle and high school revenues totaled $651.2 million, up 11%, with full-year enrollments of $72.7 thousand, up more than 10% from last year. General education revenue came in at $1.289 billion, up 14%. Enrollments in Gen Ed for the year totaled $121.6,000, up more than 8%. Total revenue per enrollment for both lines of business was $9,623, up 5.4% from last Throughout the year, we saw a divergence in career learning and general education revenue per enrollment. General education finished up 8%, while career learning was up just 1%. As we've said all year, career learning was up against a hard comp from last year, when we finished the year up 16.3%. Overall, funding environment for both career and general education throughout the year. but as with any year revenue per enrollment was impacted by a number of things including enrollment mix yields and timing impacts from prior year catch-ups for next year we still see a largely positive environment from a funding perspective at the state level though not as strong as we see in the past couple of years states also are grappling with the loss of federal extra funding in the coming school year which will create a headwind in revenue per enrollment growth given these competing dynamics as of right now and it's still early in the year we expect full year FY 2025, revenue per enrollment growth to be slattish to FY 2024. Adult learning revenue declined 16% for the year to $99.7 million on continued softness in our IT offerings. The upside is that our allied health business continues to see strong growth. Finishing the year with revenues up more than 20 percent. Going forward, this means that the struggling IT side of adult learning will continue to be a smaller part of the overall business. Gross margin for the year was 37.4 percent, up 220 basis points from FY23. As the business has continued to grow, we've seen benefits from our scale and the payoff from the efficiency efforts we've rolled out over the past couple of years. The teams have done an incredible job improving the leverage we get out of the business and I will continue to challenge us to improve this going forward. Selling general and administrative expenses for $514 million, up 7% from last year, driven by investments in our technology and higher stock-based compensation. As I mentioned during our investor day in November, we will continue to keep our SG&A spending in check as we expect to see strong leverage out of the business going forward. SG&A as a percent of revenue has declined 500 basis points since FY20, and we believe we can continue to improve this metric as the company grows. Stock-based compensation for the year was $31.5 million, up $11.2 million from last year Due to the timing of some stock rent, adjusted operating income came in at $293.9 million, up $92.9 million, or 46% from last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $390.7 million, up $94.6 million, or 32% from the prior year. diluted earnings per share totaled four dollars and 69 cents up 58 percent from last year improvements in our profitability metrics were driven by our top line growth coupled with our continued efficiency efforts and operating leverage our effective tax rate for the year was 24 percent capital expenditures were 61.6 million dollars for the year free cash flow which we define as cash from operations less capex was 217.2 million dollars up 80.6 million from last year we finished the year with cash cash equivalents and marketable securities of 714.2 million dollars our cash position gives us flexibility to continue to invest in our business be opportunistic when the right mna deal presents itself at the right price and consider returning capital to shareholders at the right time fiscal 2024 was another record year for stride with continuing strong revenue and profitability growth we saw our enrollment to exceed our pandemic high from FY21, and once again, finish the year with more enrollments than we started. This puts us in a strong position to see further growth in enrollment, revenue, and profitability in FY25. However, as James said, it's still early in our enrollment season. Historically, August and September are our busiest months, so we've got a lot of work ahead of us. Because of this, as we do every year, we'll wait until our Q1 earnings report in October to provide formal guidance. A couple of quick notes. Seasonality for next year should be in with FY24. So, we're still unsure if the in-year enrollment trends we've seen in FY23 and 24 will continue. We expect to see continued gross margin improvement at a slightly lower rate of improvement than we saw this year. SG&A expense as a percent of revenue should decrease marginally. CapEx as a percent of revenue will be slattish. Interest expense, tax rate, and stock-based compensation should be in line with FY24. With our FY24 results and current trends we are seeing for FY25, we remain on track to achieving the FY28 targets we outlined last November of total revenue CAGR of 10% and AOI CAGR of 20%, both at the midpoint. Thanks so much for your time today, and I'll pass the call back to the operator for your questions. Operator? Thank you. We will now open the line for questions.

If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star 1 again. If you are dialed in and listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Our first question comes from Gregory Parish with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, thank you. Good evening. Congrats on the quarter and a strong year. I guess. And thank you for the color you guys are giving here in the summer. So I want to ask any incremental color on what you're seeing in enrollment trends, of course. And commentary, it sounds like the commentary is the same as last quarter, right? You're trending up year over year, you're in a strong position to grow enrollments. But I mean, has anything changed over the last three months, anything incremental that you're seeing maybe here in August so far?

Yeah, hey, yeah, I think, I think what, I guess what I would say is that in the intervening three months since the last quarter, you know, I think as Donna mentioned, we still have a long way to go. We've got, I think, by our estimate, more than 50 percent of the season to go in terms of enrollment volumes, so, you know, still a lot can happen, but I would say I'm more confident today about our ability to grow into the fall than I was three

months ago. Okay, that's helpful. Then on funding, also appreciate the color Donna you gave on expectation for flat or maybe that was revenue per enrollment for flat. So do you see a scenario where funding could go backwards next year and perhaps the you know ESSER headwinds are a little bit greater than you think? Is that a possibility?

From what we're seeing from looking at the just sort of normal state funding, that funding trend looks favorable from the early funding trends that we're seeing. And from an ESSER standpoint, just given the amount of ESSER funding that we have seen, we'll see some offset to that. And so we think that will sort of offset each other. Now, what we could see, the variability that we can't quite quantify yet will be the mix, right? If we happen to grow in states that pay a lower PPR, then the funding, the PPR, could be lower. If we grow in a state that pays a higher PPR, the PPR would be higher, which is why we are projecting that our PPR will be relatively flat next year, year over year.

Okay. Maybe I'll ask one more odd one and pass it. But to SG&A, historically, fourth quarter has been a little bit higher seasonally. I think that you do, you know, you ramp up your marketing. I guess walk us through the SG&A line, because it's down sequentially, down year over year. Maybe that's just all the efficiencies that you're getting. On the marketing side, I assume that's not down year over year, but I wanted to confirm that point.

Yeah, we have been more efficient. So the marketing spend actually is down. We've been doing some automation in our enrollment center, so that is down. We've also reduced some costs in our coding business to be aligned with the decrease in the revenue for that business. And we had slightly lower claims in our medical expenses. But, yeah, we have been more efficient in our spending for marketing as well, as I said, the automation associated with our enrollment trends.

Okay. Thanks for all the color.

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Thanks so much. I wanted to go back to the funding environment, not necessarily from your perspective, but from a competitive perspective. We've been reading about some states cutting back on their own virtual schools as funding has kind of slowed. Are you seeing any of that in the states that you compete or potential new states, and you think that might give you an advantage from a competitive perspective?

Yeah, I mean, I think what we see in the states where we're operating is, you know, and I think by and large, you know, absent something very unusual, I think the fall sort of school season is upon us and therefore for states to make a change at this point going forward would be very unusual. So we don't really see a lot of risk for this fall. You know, I do think that there are a couple states out there where, you know, there's some political pressure to either cut funding, but we just haven't seen that for this fall. And we feel pretty good about where we are heading into the season. I think that, you know, I think that the state political landscape for us, as you know, which is very important, I think is, since the pandemic has become just a little bit more bipartisan, you know, the need to have educational choices for consumers is real. and just like in any other sector of the economy, I don't think that's exactly a partisan issue. Just customer choice is not really a partisan thing. So we're hopeful that education continues to migrate in that direction. But just the way the politics unfortunately play in the education landscape, there is a little bit of probably a couple of states that did worry us earlier in the season. And I think we've settled into a nice place for the fall. All right. That's good to hear.

I'm apologizing in advance for this next question, but you talked about being comfortable with your longer-term goals of 10% top-line compounded growth in revenues and 20% compounded growth in adjusted operating income. I think that's off your base from fiscal 2023. You did better than that in 2024. Does that imply growth flows from current levels, even though you still would be on track to hit those targets?

Um, that is not-does not imply that we think growth will slow. Um, we think we have a good trajectory to continue momentum, uh, for the foreseeable

Okay. I appreciate that. I know you're not providing any forward-looking guidance beyond, uh, I guess what you gave us so far. And just-I wanted to-to clarify one thing. You talked about revenue per enrollment, expecting that to be flat in fiscal 2025. Are we talking just for the general education segment or for the total company?

For the total company.

Okay, great. Thanks so much for the caller.

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. Our next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Hi, team. You have Pat McAleon today. Thank you for taking my questions. And so my first question, it sounds like early indications of application volumes and conversion are looking strong. So I just wanted to ask how much of those enrollment trends would you attribute to the kind of refresh marketing strategy versus better retention or anything else we should be thinking about?

Yeah, I mean, I think, I don't think, actually, I wouldn't exactly say our marketing strategy has changed dramatically over the past year from last year to this year. I think our execution has improved. And, you know, I think I mentioned we brought in a new person last spring. she was able to implement a number of things during the course of last season but we didn't really have a full season of it we now are seeing the full season effect of some of the things she's implemented and I think they're paying dividends so I think right now we're in a I'd say sort of a pure execution game and I think we're putting points on the board understood and then my second

questions on the tutoring front. It sounds like there's been some solid early acceptance with that offering. And you have more than enough teachers that are looking for supplemental income. So I just wanted to ask if you could provide an update on the monetization potential you see there and, you know, what the timing of that could potentially look like.

Yeah, it's still early. I think that there's a lot of opportunity out there. There's a lot of opportunity both with district contracts as well as with direct-to-consumer offerings. I think we're in a unique position in that market where we actually can offer a very competitive platform with, I think, and you'll see this year with increasing functionality that is going to start separating us from the marketplace. And it's a real convenience to be able to do it online. I think there's greater acceptance to doing it online. I don't think we would expect this year to materially impact our financials, just sort of given such a low starting base and the fact that, you know, we're over $2 billion of revenue now. But, yeah, I mean, I could see us being a serious player in the next couple years in the tutoring marketplace, and I think that can add a couple of points of growth over the next few years.

Understood. Thank you for the color, James.

There are no further questions at this time. with that we will conclude today's conference call thank you all for your participation you may now disconnect