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UPST · Upstart Holdings, Inc.

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$30.43 -0.54 (-1.74%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$2.83B
Shares
97.31M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Upstart Holdings, Inc. Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 10, 2026 Audio replay
Feb 10, 2026 1:13:45 88 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
1:13:45
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Upstart reported Q4 2025 total revenue of $296 million (+35% YoY) and full-year revenue of $1.0 billion (+64% YoY), with FY2025 net income of $53.6 million versus a prior-year loss, and guided to ~$1.4 billion in 2026 revenue.

Sales/Delivery Channels 6 Loan Size & Unit Economics 5 Margin/Contribution Outlook 5

Management tone

Balanced

Net tone +5 · moderate hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “We haven't yet seen specific dynamics play out with respect to how measured contribution impacts the different channels.”
  • “But I think generally speaking, these bigger loans opening up new types of unit economics mean that at a given contribution margin, dollar dollars can be quite attractive.”
  • “there's a diverse mix in those businesses. But I would say, generally, the acquisition costs tend to be lower.”

Forward guidance

4 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $296.09M +35.2% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $18.64M

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Total originations of ~$3.2 billion in Q4, up 52% YoY, with 455,788 loans originated up 86% YoY
  • Q4 net income of $18.6 million ($0.17 diluted EPS) versus a net loss in Q4 2024
  • Q4 Adjusted EBITDA of $63.7 million, up from $38.8 million in Q4 2024, with margin expanding to 22% from 18%
  • Auto and home originations each grew 5x in 2025 and accelerated further in Q4
  • 70% of Q4 auto/home loan funding came from 11 partners, with an additional 13 signed for the coming year
  • FY2026 guidance of approximately $1.4 billion in total revenue

Risks & pressure points

  • Contribution Margin compressed to 53% in Q4 from 61% in Q4 2024, and to 56% for FY2025 from 60% in 2024
  • Balance-sheet loans were reduced 20% quarter-over-quarter, indicating ongoing exposure wind-down
  • Company is discontinuing quarterly guidance starting in 2026, reducing near-term visibility
  • FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA Margin guided to ~21%, below the FY2028 terminal target of ~25%

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 10, 2026.

Metric Guided
Total Revenue
For full-year 2026
$1.4B
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
For full-year 2026
21%
Terminal Adjusted EBITDA Margin
For the 2025-2028 period
25%
Total Revenue
For the 2025-2028 period
35%
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