Bok Financial Corp (BOKF) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Greetings. Welcome to BOK Financial Corporation's third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the presentation over to Heather King, Director of Investor Relations for BOK Financial Corporation. Heather, please proceed.

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us to discuss BOK Financial's third quarter 2026 results. Our CEO, Stacey Kounds, will provide opening remarks, cover the loan portfolio, and related credit metrics. Scott Grauer, Executive Vice President of Wealth Management, will review our fee-based businesses. Our CFO, Marty Gruntz, will then walk through our financial performance for the quarter as well as our forward guidance. The slide presentation and press release are available on our website at BOKF.com. We refer you to the disclaimers on slide two regarding any forward-looking statements made during this call. I will now turn the call over to Stacey Kimes, who will begin on slide four.

Thank you, Heather. We appreciate you joining the call this afternoon. We are pleased to report earnings of $159.9 million, or EPS, of $2.64 per diluted share for the third quarter, reflecting another period of solid performance despite a challenging interest rate environment. Four key factors drove our results. First, quality loan growth. Loan growth remained a standout contributor again this quarter. Total loans grew 2.4% in the quarter, representing annualized growth of 9.5% and grew 11.5% year-over-year. Second, meaningful margin expansion. Net interest margin increased nine basis points to 3%. We continue to benefit from the repricing of fixed rates. Disciplined expense management. We continue to invest where we see attractive opportunities for long-term growth and prudently manage our expense base. We are not managing the company for one quarter. We are focused on producing sustainable growth and profitability over time. And fourth, exceptional credit quality. We continue to see very strong performance across the portfolio with no meaningful deterioration that would change our view about the underlying credit environment. Together, these strengths demonstrate the durability of our business model. They reflect the benefits of decisions we have made over many years to diversify our business, manage risk prudently, and position the company to perform well across a wide range of economic environments. I also want to spend a moment on the rate environment. It highlights an important differentiator for BOK Financial. We have not seen a 10-year treasury yield at these levels since 2007. This rate move also happened very quickly with similar velocity to what the market experienced in 2023. Our securities portfolio has a relatively short duration of about three years, which helps limit our exposure to changes in interest rates. We've managed the balance sheet this way for decades, maintaining risk limits around tangible common and tangible common equity and stress. As part of that discipline, we regularly monitor how our capital would change if interest rates across the yield curve rose by 300 basis points. Our current TCE is 9.2%, well above the TCE for the broader KRX index. This is by design and reflects how we have managed the balance sheet over many years. That consistency gives us flexibility to continue serving clients and investing in growth across a range of market conditions. Environment is a headwind for our more rate-sensitive fee-based businesses and mortgage banking. Industry activity levels declined meaningfully during the quarter, and our results reflected that environment, consistent with what other market participants. We view those businesses through the cycle, where they provide an important source of diversification to our overall earnings. And now we'll cover our loan portfolio in more detail starting on slide six loan growth remains a particular source of strength we have invested heavily in our people markets and capabilities and those investments are now contributing across the organization total outstanding loans grew 646 million or 2.4 percent this quarter and we're up 11 and a half importantly this growth continues to be well balanced across our businesses and markets. Our core C&I loan portfolio, which represents our combined services and general business portfolios, grew slightly linked quarter, but is up 10.9% over the prior year. Energy lending experienced an outstanding quarter, increasing $264 million, or 8.6%, driven by both higher utilization across existing relationships and solid new production. This is a business where we have deep expertise and longstanding client relationships. The elevated payout activity we experienced last year was largely driven by industry consolidation and an accommodating debt capital markets environment. As market activity normalized, volumes return, and we are benefiting from the strength of our relationships and reputation in the sales decline 1.4% this quarter, but we're still up 3.8% year over year with healthy future. Mortgage finance also contributed meaningfully to loan growth during the quarter, with current outstanding balances of $589 million, an increase of $137 million. Active warehouse commitments increased more than $500 million during the quarter to $1.4 billion, and loans funded on our warehouse lines grew 23%. This is a remarkable result, given the challenging U.S. mortgage origination environment. Our commercial real estate portfolio grew 4.2% over the prior quarter, Growth in this portfolio was broad-based, spanning industrial, retail, and other real estate loans. We remain well below our internal concentration limits. Moving to slide seven, once again, credit quality remains strong. Non-performing assets not guaranteed by the U.S. government increased $3.3 million to $58 million. The resulting non-performing assets to period in loans and repossessed assets increased one basis point to 21 basis points. Committed criticized assets increased this quarter, but remained very low relative to historical standards. We had net charge-offs of $886,000 during the quarter, averaging two basis points over the last 12 months. We continue to have only de minimis exposure to private credit facilities and no direct lending to data centers. Consistent with the prior quarter, no provision was required. Improvement in economic forecast assumptions was offset by the impact of loan growth. Our combined allowance for credit losses is a healthy $322 million, or 1.16% of outstanding loans. In all, credit quality remains exceptionally strong, with no meaningful signs of broad-based stress emerging in the portfolio. Over time, we would expect credit normalization should not be completed. Our underwriting standards, portfolio diversification, and risk management approach are designed to perform throughout the credit cycle. And we continue to feel very good about the quality of the book. And with that, I'll turn it over to Scott.

Thank you, Stacey. Turning to our operating results for the quarter on slides 9 and 10, I'm going to start with the interest rate environment because it had a meaningful impact on several of our market-sensitive businesses this quarter. During the quarter, interest rates moved up significantly, with the 10-year Treasury increasing nearly 80 basis points. The increase in longer-term rates creates a challenging backdrop for both mortgage activity and fixed-income markets. And importantly, this is a theme we have seen across the industry. slow origination activity, which in turn reduces the volumes that support both our mortgage production and fixed-income trading businesses. We take a long-term view of these businesses and recognize that activity levels will fluctuate with market conditions. History has shown that these businesses can provide significant earnings momentum when rates decline and mortgage activity rebounds. That long-term counter-cyclical benefit is a key component of our diversified business model. It's one of the reasons these businesses remain such an important part of our franchise. Against that backdrop, total fees and commissions were $188 million, declining $14 million sequentially. The majority of that decline was concentrated in our markets and securities businesses, where revenue declined $15.2 million to $36.2 million. Within trading, the best way to evaluate the business is to look at total trading revenue, which includes both trading fees and trading-related net interest income. We have this distinction over the last several quarters as the shape of the yield curve has shifted revenue between those two categories. Total trading revenue was $15 million this quarter compared to $25 million in the second quarter. Trading fees were negative $6.3 million, while trading-related net interest income was $21.3 million. This quarter, you saw a decline in trading fees, reflecting the market dynamics just discussed, partially offset with a small increase in trading-related net interest income as the steeper curve shifted some revenue into that line item. For investment banking revenue, which grew $4.3 million, driven by municipal bond underwriting activity. This was partially offset by a reduction of $3.4 million in syndication fees, which returned to more normal levels following a very strong... Coming to slide 10 to discuss our asset management and transactions businesses, these businesses continue to perform well, generating recurring fee income, broadening our revenue mix, and reinforcing the earnings diversity that distinguishes our franchise. Our fiduciary and asset management business delivered another very strong quarter, contributing $69.9 million to revenue. While it was down a slightly linked quarter, the second quarter benefited from seasonal tax preparation fees. Excluding that seasonal comparison, the third quarter represents our highest revenue quarter on record. AUMA was stable at $129.3 billion. Transaction Card contributed $32.2 million to revenue this quarter, representing a new quarterly record. Collectively, these businesses represent an important part of what makes our franchise unique. They are built on long-term relationships, recurring sources of revenue, and specialized expertise that have consistently produced value across market environments. With that, I'll hand the call over to Marty to cover the financials.

Thank you, Scott. Turning to slide 12, net interest income increased $18.1 million and net interest margin grew 9 basis points. Excluding trading, core net interest income increased $15.1 million and core margin increased 8 basis points. Core margin and net interest income continue to benefit from loan growth and fixed-rate asset repricing. Given the short duration of our securities portfolio, we typically have the opportunity to reinvest between $600 million to $700 million of quarterly securities cash flows. This provides a durable benefit as lower-yielding assets mature and are reinvested at current market rates. In the third quarter, portfolio runoff was $770 million at an average yield of approximately 3.3%. Those cash flows were reinvested at an average yield slightly over 5.1%, representing a yield pickup of more than 180 basis points. Third quarter also benefited from loan fees, the portfolio restructure we completed back in the second quarter, and a small improvement in energy derivative margin. Turning to slide 13, total expenses were largely unchanged compared to the prior quarter excluding changes in deferred compensation personnel expense increased 6.5 million this increase reflects strategic talent investments including the addition of proven revenue producers as we capitalized on recruiting opportunities from market disruption in addition strong loan production during the quarter resulted in higher incentive compensation and healthcare costs increased total non-personnel expense was flat versus the prior quarter Slide 14 provides our outlook for full year 2026. Our guidance assumes one additional rate hike in the fourth quarter and longer-term rates align with the current forward curve. Loan growth and pipelines are tracking well with our expectations and our growth guidance remains over 10%. Our outlook for total revenue growth is unchanged at mid-single digits. Net interest income is expected to be $1.43 to $1.44 billion, while fee income is expected to exceed $800 million. As we commonly note, future variability and curve steepness can shift trading revenue between those two categories. On expenses, we have tightened our guidance and anticipate growth to be roughly 1% versus the prior year. We continue to expect the full-year efficiency ratio to be approximately 62 percent, reflecting the visa gain we recognized in the second quarter. If adjusted for the visa gain, our guidance for that ratio would be near 63 percent. Turning to credit, portfolio credit quality remains very strong. We continue to see very low levels of non-performing assets and no tangible evidence of broad-based normalization at this point. We believe provision expense will be below 10 million for the full year 2026. With that, I would like to hand the call back to the operator for Q&A, which will be followed by closing remarks from Stacey.

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of David Chiaverini with Jefferies. David, your line is now open.

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. Starting on the net interest margin, very strong bounce in the third quarter. how should we think about the trajectory from here along with the drivers as well as touch on the rate sensitivity as we look forward?

Yeah, thanks for the question, David. Yeah, we were happy with how the margin turned out. That was consistent with how we were thinking about it a quarter ago. And the drivers from here, as we think about finishing out the year, basically the fixed rate asset repricing will be the big positive component there. So So we'll continue to see both the securities portfolio, fixed rate loans, add to that. Energy derivative margin, if you recall, that gave us a drag of three basis points in the second quarter, turned out to be a drag of two basis points in the third. We'll still get that back. It's hard to tell if that'll be a neutral or a drag going into the next quarter. And then competitive loan and deposit pricing environments, those are still just as competitive as they were. And, you know, so far that hasn't really shown up in the margin for us, but we certainly recognize that that's a driver. From a rate risk perspective, you know, we're very rate risk neutral, so we don't think that that will be anything that changes things from quarter to quarter. So, you know, all in, we think about the margin, you know, stable as our near turmoil hook.

While we are rate neutral, this is Stacy, David, the shape of the yield curve does matter. So if there was any steepening along the way or flattening, obviously that could impact us a little bit too.

Great. Thanks for that. And then shifting over to the loan side, can you talk about the pipelines this quarter, you know, growth driven by energy and mortgage finance. Should we expect similar areas to drive growth going forward? And a key theme this quarter is, you know, if higher rates are impacting loan demand.

Thus far, I haven't seen the impact of higher rates impacting loan demand. I think that, you know, in our footprint, you still have a lot of strong economic activity. Keep in mind, And, you know, in the longer end of the curve, you know, 25 basis point move in short term rates isn't going to make a huge difference there. And I don't think the longer term view has a huge rate move, even on the short end. So we're not seeing changes in borrower appetite at this point, understanding that could change. The nature of having a diverse portfolio is that, you know, some quarters, one area shines more than another. And so this quarter, it was energy, and certainly mortgage finance has been a stalwart for us since inception. But we're very excited about what's happening in C&I. A little bit of a slowdown this quarter, but we think that's just kind of a blip. We think we'll continue to move forward and achieve the guidance that we've provided to the street as we move into the fourth quarter.

Very helpful. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Rose with Raymond James. Michael, your line is now open.

Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just following up on the NIMS discussion, obviously very good NII growth this quarter, but it looks like based on the guide that that's going to slow fairly materially quarter over quarter. And I really wanted to get into the deposit side because deposits did shrink. You guys obviously have a low loan to deposit ratio. But just how should we think about the progression of deposit growth from here as it relates to kind of the NIM discussion that you just laid out moving into next year along with, you know, earning asset growth? Just trying to put it all together as we set up for next year.

Yeah, Michael. So let me just comment on the NII growth. i mean we we expect to continue to grow earning assets through growing loans and combine the uh the earning asset growth and you know relatively stable net interest margin we feel good about the nii trajectory as we finish out the year and then i think it's it's an important point to look at on the the deposit growth so you're right we we certainly do have a very strong loan to deposit ratio and that gives us the flexibility to be thoughtful about how we respond to to market pricing pressures but if you spend a little extra time looking at the differences between q2 and q3 on an average and ending basis it'll help you see what signal and what's noise so if you look at average balance in q3 and ending balance in q3 for deposits they're basically the same if you look at ending balance in Q2 versus average balance ending was over 600 million higher and so you know there's a little bit of a run-up right at the end of June that affected that ending balance so if you look at average balances you see a growth trend if you look at average balances in every single line of business that we disclose you see growth quarter over quarter so I think it's probably more accurate to say that fundamentally we've got a growth trend going on in the deposits you've got a little signal versus noise issue when you look at the ending balances but at the end of the day you know we feel good about our ability to continue to grow the deposit portfolio we've done a great job of that over the last several years and we'll maintain a uh a very strong loan to deposit ratio uh going forward i appreciate the the color marty um and maybe just a follow-up on on loan growth i know you, like others, have been fairly active in hiring new producers.

Do you have a sense for how much of this quarter's growth was maybe driven by some of those new producers versus maybe just draws on existing lines? And then, you know, what is the hiring outlook as we think about the next couple quarters look like, you know, for you guys specifically? Obviously, we've had some bigger deals in Texas close. And I think last quarter, you mentioned that I think 20 of the 25 hires were in Texas. So just trying to frame the opportunity as we move forward. Thanks.

Sure. I mean, this quarter, if you think about at the top of the house, utilization was essentially flat from the second quarter. So the growth really wasn't utilization driven. It was really continued to add customers to the base. I think that from a talent acquisition perspective, we continue to be focused on that. The growth this quarter was not driven by the talent. We expect to see that begin to show up in the fourth quarter and then certainly in 2027. But we continue to be very active there across all of our markets, not just Texas. We continue to look to add talent. We think that is the best way for us to grow in the current environment. And we have become an employer of choice for many who want to do business a certain way, that very relationship-driven, and that's been effective for us. So I think that's part of the future story. For sure, we're excited about the people who come on board, but the results that they will drive are going to be in the future, not reflected in the third quarter. Thanks, Stacey.

I'll step back. Thanks for taking my questions.

Your next question comes from the line of John Arstrom with RBC Capital Markets. John, your line is now open.

Hey, thanks. Good afternoon. Hey, John. Hey, a couple of rate-related questions. On slide six, Stacey, that mortgage finance line, it's up nicely, and I think we all get that it's growing. But my guess is the balances are probably somewhat depressed. I'm just kind of curious if you can talk about, you know, what you're seeing in terms of new business wins there. And if the mortgage market normalizes a little bit, you know, what kind of expectations do you have, you know, for potential balances there, if that makes sense?

Yeah, you know, when I talk about it kind of in general terms, I mean, we're still pretty nascent. in that business. And so you still have a lot of customer acquisition that's happening. And so utilization is not where it will be when the business is more mature. I would say our utilization there is kind of in the low 30 percentile. And some of that's just a factor of the time it takes to get customers onboarded and for systems to integrate and for, you know, if they become active from that perspective, I think as you begin to mature out the business, you're probably looking at utilization closer to 50%. And certainly in this type of mortgage environment, you know, I'm very impressed with the team and how they're continuing to grow and add commitments at a significant clip. I think if you think about a more normal mortgage environment, this business looks even better. So we're really happy with where it's at today in a difficult environment. But if you kind of, whatever normal is for mortgage, If you find that, I think this business looks even better for us. And I'll tell you, you know, we talk about it's about a relationship, not a transaction for us. And this business is a really good example of that. We don't have a single customer who is a loan-only customer inside of our mortgage warehouse business. Every single customer that we have has at least one other product with us, whether that be they're an active trader in our TBA business or whether they're a treasury customer or both, we continue to be very good at selling the whole bank and having a relationship and not just a transaction.

And John, Marty, I would add one thing to that. Just note that that business, as we mature it out, there will be seasonality trends in there.

Of course, summer versus winter is kind of the driver there but given the momentum we have in originations you know we think we'll be able to grow through the the seasonality that we would see here in the in the near term quarter yep okay good um and then scott um question for you i kind of feel like i'm picking on you periodically um on trading fees but obviously you can't control what what interest rates too, but, you know, a couple of tougher quarters in a row due to the rate environment. What needs to happen for that business to get back to some normalcy? Is it just rates staying steady in the same range or do rates have to come back down or how do you want us to think through this?

Yeah, it's a great question. It's a fair question. And I would characterize really two things need to happen to create a more optimal environment. Obviously, we continue to do business, continue to have significant trading volumes there. They're just not what we would like them to be with the rapid change in rates. And so what we need to see are two things, stability and acclimation. You know, it's not the absolute rates and the rate levels because we, you know, have been in that business for over 25 years and have seen these rates and in fact higher in the past and generated, you know, quite effectively and efficiently. So it's merely the uncertainty and the instability with the speed of change and the upward pressure on rates, I think, that has caused the biggest challenge to both buyers in the mortgage securities market as well as the origination piece. So as the mortgage buyers acclimate to this type of a rate range, we'll continue to take more than our share of that business. But during this environment, it creates challenges both in the confidence levels of our asset buyers as well as the mortgage origination piece itself. So we need stability and acclimation to this type of a rate range, which we don't find necessarily out of longer term historic norms.

John, this is Stacey. I mean, think about, for us, the last six weeks of the quarter. So, tenure rose about 80 basis points, pretty quick move in the long end of the curve. So, if you're a buyer, the big thing you want to do is buy a bond today and it'd be worth less tomorrow. And I think what we've seen over the last, you know, few weeks is the tenure has kind of settled out. The pace of the change has changed and stabilized tremendously. That business will be just fine in a stable environment. environment. And so, you know, if you think about where we are through the first, you know, two or three weeks of October, you know, we like what we've seen there. So it's not about the rate, it's about the pace of change. And now that that pace is stabilized quite a bit, we think that business will also stabilize. Now, the mortgage business itself is a different story. It's going to take longer, but the fixed income trading business will come back to us once the pace of change has slowed and at least thus far this quarter that that has proven to be the case okay that that's helpful that's a good comment on the 10-year kind of rolling over so i appreciate it thank you your next question comes from the line of peter winter with da davidson peter your line is now open oh thanks good afternoon um when i look at expenses you guys have done really an excellent job managing expenses this year updated guidance is one percent um the

question is what would you consider a more normal growth rate and is there room to further improve the efficiency ratio i realize you operate a little higher than peers just given the the mix of your your fee income businesses yeah so peter i think that you know long run there is room for that efficiency ratio to improve from uh from where it is but you know we're not the sort of company just given the the strength and size of our fee businesses you know we're not somebody that's going to be in the in the upper 50s we're going to be you know in the lower 60s as as kind of the long run you know what would make sense for us so but i think that that ultimately there is room there uh to make improvement i think that uh you know we appreciate the the commentary about the year and uh we've done a tremendous job of being thoughtful about making investments in the company that that ultimately drive uh greater efficiency and that's important long run and we're pretty proud of the fact that when we brought the efficiency ratio down probably close to 300 basis points over the last 12 months while still making significant investments in new revenue producers uh and and key infrastructure investments that we think will propel us for many years into the future.

The mix of the business that we have is unique for a regional bank. And so that results in a higher efficiency ratio than most. But we look at each of those lines of business and kind of has a target efficiency ratio. So it's easy for us to manage and kind of know where we are by each distinct line of business.

But I think, Peter, you know us well, and you know that we don't manage to that ratio for the company because we're always thinking about long-term investments and if there's investments that are important to make that are really going to pay off long term we'll make those and uh you know the the efficiency ratio is ultimately something that comes out of that set of decisions in the short run got it got it that's really helpful and also just separately um nice to see another solid quarter of loan growth in the energy portfolio can you Talk about the pipeline in energy.

Are you starting to see more willingness to drill as energy prices really might be staying at these elevated levels for longer?

I'm not going to be happy with you if you jinx it, but it appears that way. For a long time, I would say that the severe backwardation of the curve didn't make it very interesting because you really need a longer-term price rise. But if you look out, you know, 12 months from now, you're still seeing pretty healthy prices. I think the market is beginning to believe that even post resumption of the post resolution of the conflict, that there will continue to be a political risk premium embedded in the price of oil. And as a result of that, we're starting to see customers begin to look at and begin to implement more broader drilling programs, which means the use of debt to be able to help them facilitate that. So, you know, it'll be lumpy. I wish it was, you know, always up and to the right every quarter over the last 18 months. Energy actually because of consolidation in the industry and much lower utilization had been a headwind for us. And so now it's great to have it as a tailwind, and we're very hopeful that it will continue to be that way for a while. Thanks, Jason. Thank you, Peter.

Your next question comes from the line of Ed Najarian with Huvdi Group. Ed, your line is now open.

Yeah. Good afternoon, guys. I hate to sort of beat a dead horse on the NIM, but just a question there. When I think about the investment securities portfolio runoff that you've outlined and the reinvestment there, the variability of the loan portfolio, you know, the ability to lag deposit pricing, you know, even if we're using sort of that high 60s deposit beta that you've talked about previously, it seems like there's still some opportunity for a little more margin expansion, at least in the near term, especially if the Fed's going to tighten, let's say, one or two more times in the near term. So, I guess the question is, are you just being a a little conservative in terms of your NIM outlook because the NIM is always, you know, very little difficult to fine tune and forecast specifically? Or would you agree that there's a little more opportunity for NIM expansion over the next quarter or two before it sort of settles out and stabilizes?

Yeah, I'd appreciate the question. And you're right. If you look at the long run history over the last nine quarters, core NIM has expanded three basis points per quarter and that's been a function of fixed-rate asset repricing and then some of the other items that that you articulated and uh you know we when we think through where the margin really gravitates to over time we've said in the past if you just took the securities portfolio replaced it with current you know current market levels you know you'd be north of three and so you know over long periods of time you're always going to gravitate to something that is kind of your natural level and then given your recorder you might be above or below that for various market mostly market driven reasons i think that you know long run we do see uh continued margin expansion as part of what's possible here i just note that there there certainly will be some level of overlay of of competitive pressure given that uh you know there's there's plenty of demand for loans within the industry. And we feel very comfortable talking about stable in the near term as we round out the year. But I think you're right on the long-term message of where that ultimately goes.

I think you're thinking about the short-term dynamic probably correctly. If you think about how deposit pricing tends to lag, we kind of would prefer to talk about the margin you know, over a longer cycle so that you, you know, you kind of even out those lags. But you're not wrong in how you think about it. I think that the other thing to think about is, you know, demand deposits are going to be a bit tougher in this environment given a higher rate. And so, you know, as we think about it collectively, we feel pretty optimistic, but we don't want to overpromise here either.

Right. Okay. Great, great answer. Understood. Good. And then just two really quick housekeeping questions. When you talk about a 1%, you know, expense growth for this year, that's like all in for both years. You're not taking out any kind of deferred comp or anything like that. That's gap versus gap, correct?

Gap versus gap is right.

Okay. And then on the NII guide, that's a non-FTE number, correct? That is an SEC, not FTE number. That's correct. Okay, perfect. Thank you very much. Good quarter, guys. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Woody Lay with KBW. Woody, your line is now open.

Hey, good afternoon. Wanted to touch on the CRE segment. You also saw nice growth in the quarter. Could you just talk about the growth opportunities you're seeing in the segment? And is that a trend that could continue from here?

Yeah, I think that, you know, CRE is very difficult for us to forecast. I think that, you know, the nature of the portfolio is, you know, let's pick on multifamily. You identify a developer, they build a multifamily apartment, it seasons, it matures, it gets to occupancy, and then it sells. And that happens over a three to four year period of time. But rates have a pretty big impact there. So if you think about longer-term rates running up, that could have an impact, and folks may choose to use a mini-perm structure or something like that and not necessarily sell it on a, you know, non-recourse fixed-rate basis outside of the banking system. And so that could make some of those loans a little stickier and then allow CRE to grow. We're still trying to figure out what that looks like as we think about next year. But we've got plenty of room to grow from a concentration limit. We really like the team that we've got on the field. We're smart about how we do it. We focus on recourse. We're successful in getting that. It's a big part of how we think about that business. So that's why our credit outcomes there have been so strong. But we're optimistic. And the only thing that ever makes us less optimistic is really understanding the impact of paydowns in the book. but with a higher level of the 10-year, that probably makes the book a little bit stickier and allows it to grow.

I appreciate the color there. And just as a follow-up, maybe touching on credit, and as you mentioned, credit's been super clean. I guess as it relates to the reserve percentage, you know, you've had close to zero provision over the past couple years, and that's even in light of really strong growth. You know, given it sounds like growth should continue strong here in the near term, how are you thinking about the reserve on a percentage basis? Are we close to a trough?

Or given, you know, the expectations that mortgage fans should grow, would that naturally push the reserve down on a percentage basis? yeah i mean that's kind of a nuanced answer and it's kind of facts and circumstances at the point of the time that we make you know it depends on what the economic outlook is it depends on the level of charge-offs and criticizing classified levels i will tell you as we think about next year we'll start to think about the reserve x mortgage warehouse uh i think that that as that portfolio grows we kind of have to think about that as a percentage of loans differently than we do the rest of the portfolio. But credit has been incredibly strong. We clearly can't sustain a million dollars in charge of us a quarter, but we'll take it while it's here. And obviously, when you have this strong a credit, you don't need to provide, even when we've had this kind of growth. And as time goes along, we'll continue to evaluate that and make the best decision in the quarter that we can based on the information that we have.

Got it. All right. Well, I appreciate y'all taking my questions.

Your next question comes from the line of Terry McAvoy with Wells Fargo. Terry, your line is now open.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Just one follow-up on the last two questions. If you look at the other side of higher rates, if rates go higher into next year, could you start to see some credit pressure within CRE? If so, how do you get ahead of that? what are your thoughts on loan modifications and term extension? And within those four larger segments of CRE that you call out on page six, are there any specific areas that you think are most at risk to higher interest rates? Thank you.

Yeah, I mean, obviously, you know, higher interest rates is a big input into debt repayment for a commercial real estate borrower. And if rates go up, then that's an additional stress for them. I think it really depends on what happens with economic growth and where are the projects. I mean, most all of our projects are in our footprint where there's economic net infill activity that's positive. If you look at, you know, this isn't the first time rates have gone up. You've seen us perform through that. You may get some credit migration, but because we have such a large percentage of our portfolio that has recourse. You know, the project sponsors work through that and, you know, work on it over time. And the outcomes are very strong. I mean, look at our, you know, real estate losses over the last 10 years. They're very, very, and certainly, you know, we had a rising rate environment that was more substantial, frankly, than this one. From a short-term perspective, I think we went up 500 basis points in the short term in a 15-month or less period of time. So, we can work through that. We don't have any overt concerns about that portfolio, but clearly there could be some credit migration and things that would have to be worked through if rates continue to migrate higher. Great.

Appreciate you taking my questions. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Olney with Stevens. Matt, your line is now open.

Hey, thanks, guys. I'll ask about capital. Don't think we saw any buyback activity this quarter. We are seeing a little pullback in valuations in the industry. So curious about your appetite from here on the buyback. And then on the M&A front, it's been a while since we've talked about this. So just curious about the opportunities that you see out there, whether it's on the depository side or the non-depository side. Thanks.

Yeah, Matt, thanks for the question. Yeah, and our commentary on capital and really share by back more specifically is pretty consistent with the message that we talked about before. We're certainly aware of the fact that we have a very strong capital base and excess capital. However, we are very thoughtful about the capital deployment decisions we make and making sure that those are ones that make sense over a very long period of time. And so we're very opportunistic about that and continue to be willing to be patient but but you know there's a there's a point where that opportunity gets gets attractive and we'll just play that out through the quarter from an mna perspective this is stacy obviously we're interested in using our capital in mna but it needs to be the right opportunity we don't need we're doing so well at acquiring talent and growing organically.

We don't need M&A to continue to propel us forward. It really, for us, is kind of the cherry on top of the sundae. If there's something that is attractive and that works, we're going to be interested in it. But obviously, what we're focused on is not just buying something for the sake of buying something. It has to have both strategic value and be financially inside of the metrics that are important to us, particularly our cash on cash. I would tell you, you know, there's not a large pipeline. We would look at bank deals. We would look at non-bank deals. But the discipline around how we think about that and how we ensure that they're shareholder friendly and that the returns that are promised at the deal announcement or what is realized are very important to us. And so we'll be thoughtful about that. But it's certainly something that we're interested in, but not just for the sake of doing it.

Understood. Thank you, guys.

Our last question comes from the line of Brett Robiton with StoneX Group. Brett, your line is now open.

Hey, guys. Good afternoon. The only question that I haven't really heard an answer to is just wanting to talk about slide 19 on the securities portfolio. The duration is fairly short at 3.4 years, which only extends to 3.8 if rates increase 200 basis points. So I was a little surprised with the AOCI quarter-to-quarter change. Any thoughts on that and just why the increase was fairly outsized relative to the duration of the portfolio?

Yeah, I think if you back into the math, I think that AOCI is consistent with the rates that apply to that part of the curve and the securities that we have. In fact, more broadly, you know, our AOCI change relative to other peers, first of all, that's a more favorable outcome just because we do have a shorter securities portfolio and the proof is in the pudding of looking at the TCE ratios. If you look at our TCE at 9.2, you know, that's, you know, at the upper end of the Whatever peer group you want to pick, that's at the upper end of the peer group, both in terms of the amount of change and the absolute, more importantly, the absolute level of where that TCE landed. And that is a function of how we run that securities portfolio. So happy to talk with you more offline about some of the puts and takes of that, if you'd like.

Brett, the other piece of that is, if you look at particularly larger regionals, is the use of held-to-maturity, which shields these banks from the AOCI mark. I think that we have really stayed away from using held-to-maturity for the most part. We continue to allow that portfolio in held-to-maturity to just run off. We like the economic optionality that we have, including things in AFS. And so I think we probably have a bigger percentage of our portfolio in AFS than most do because we think long-term that gives us the most than if we want to do that. I think that's the other piece of that equation as you think about that.

Okay, that's helpful. And then I guess the other related kind of question is just around the trading portfolio, which the average size was just slightly higher link quarter, but I kind of figured it might decrease a little bit um you know any thoughts on the size of that portfolio from here and if you think it uh i think it might be about the same or you know any thoughts on size full of tips the balance sheet yeah i think uh you know if you look over the last couple quarters you know it's been pretty steady in that five to six but closer to six billion average balance and i think it's important right that you you think about that portfolio in an average balance context not ending balance because just any one given day for a trading book is really insightful so

you know kind of think of that that five to six range on average and and think about that you know probably at the higher end and i would think that you know to tag on to marty there that's that's where it will be given a sustained environment that we have today you know should the environment change as stacy and i talked about earlier then certainly that that size could change Yep.

Okay. Appreciate the color, guys.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Stacey Kimes, CEO, for closing remarks.

I'm proud of the grit and determination of our team to deliver another solid quarter. Strong loan growth, an expanding margin, disciplined expense management, and excellent credit quality all reflect the underlying strength of our franchise. Market conditions will continue to evolve, but we'll stay focused on what we can control. serving our clients well, managing risk prudently, investing thoughtfully in growth, and creating long-term value for our shareholders. Before we close today's call, I'd like to take a moment to recognize our specialized industry banking executive, Brad Vincent, who will retire next month after nearly 30 years with the company. Throughout his career, Brad has been a trusted leader, an exceptional teammate, a mentor to many, and one of the finest examples of servant leadership in our organization. On behalf of myself and the organization, Brad, thank you for your leadership, your friendship, your dedication to BOK Financial. Congratulations on an outstanding career and a well-deserved retirement. Thank you for your interest in BOK Financial and for spending time with us this afternoon. If you have any questions, please reach out to Heather King at h.king at bokf.com.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now