Interparfums Inc (IPAR) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Greetings and welcome to Interperfume 2026 conference call and webcast. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. The question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Mr. Devin Sullivan. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you, Rob, and good morning, everyone. Joining us on the call today will be Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Jean Madard and Chief Financial Officer Michelle Atwood. As a reminder, this conference call may contain forward-looking statements which involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties, and other factors that may cause actual results to be materially different from projected results. These factors may be found in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission under the headings Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which they are made, and Interparfum undertakes no obligation to update the information discussed. Interparfum's consolidated results include two business segments, European-based operations through Interparfum SA, the company's 72-owned French subsidiary, and United States-based operations. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Jean Madard. Jean, please go ahead.

Thank you, Devin, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's call. We are very pleased with our performance at the midpoint of the year, which reflects the appeal of our global brand portfolio and the strength of our underlying business, and also the disciplined execution, and also the continued dedication of our team. Despite the challenges that persist in our business and industry, these results give me confidence in our ability to deliver on our full-year objectives and continue on the path towards creating long-term value for our shareholders. So we delivered a 2% sales growth in both the second quarter and first half of 2026, supported by strong performance from several of our leading brands and a strong rebound in our United States-based operation of an admittedly weak comparison. Excluding the war-related headwinds, organic sales advanced 4% in the quarter and 1% year-to-date. And we maintained a robust financial position while continuing to invest in product initiatives that position us well for the balance of the year and beyond. Consolidated sales growth in the first half of the year reflects strong brand execution and solid performance in select regions, partially offset by macro and regional headwinds. North America, our largest market, was up 5%, propelled by a health category, a steady cadence of new extensions, notably from Coach, and marketing investments that are clearly paying off. Asia-Pacific was highlighted up 14% as initiatives supporting Coach and Montblanc took hold, GES extended its footprint in Australia and New Zealand, and our new Korean affiliate got off to an excellent start after several years of uneven results in the region. We are also encouraged that consumers across Asia are increasingly embracing the fragrance category and we are moving quickly to ensure that opportunity. In India, for example, we recently teamed up with a new distributor to bring and Jimmy Choo, several of our other brands, back to one of the world's fastest growing beauty markets. Also, South America rose by 15% behind the continued success of Coach for Women and Men and the Mont Blanc-Ledand line. Partially offsetting growth from this geography, a few regions declined in the first half. Eastern Europe flipped 3% on softer consumer demand. Eastern Europe was down 7% amid operational difficulties in certain markets, which weighted most heavily on Lanvin and Lacoste. And of course, Middle East and Africa fell 24% as the war in the region continued to wait on our results. Even with these pressures, our diversified footprint allowed us to grow overall, which speaks to the resilience of our model. Looking at our brands, momentum in the first half was broad, and several of our largest properties finished the second quarter with real strength. Coach grew 10% in the first half, driven by strong performance in the U.S., its primary market, driven by continued demand across most existing lines, and by the launch of new extensions in the Coach Women and Coach Men franchises earlier in 2026. En Blanc advanced 6% in the first half of 2026 due to favorable exchange rates and the ongoing success of the Montblanc Explorer Extreme line and the strength of a Legend franchise. With sales holding firm in the second quarter and the third franchise arriving in 2027, we see plenty of runway ahead for this brand. Next, Dimitri was up 8% for the half year, capped by an impressive 23% jump in the second quarter. The brand's fragrances are winning over more and more customers, particularly in the U.S., thanks to the enduring popularity of I Want Shoe and a very successful debut for Jimmy Choo Man Parfum. Guess, the largest U.S.-based brand, rose 11% in the first half, including 10% in the second quarter. The iconic franchise keeps delivering, now ordered by iconic blue for men and the newest Amore extension, Amore Napoli, which was launched in the second quarter. The brand of rich keeps widening as well. Today, for instance, guests stand among the top 15 fragrance brands in Australia. Let's talk about Ferragamo. Ferragamo sales jumped by 41% in the second quarter, bringing first-class growth to 17%. Growth was geographically broad, with the Siorina and Ferragamo lines performing very well, elevated by their latest launches introduced in late 2025. We rolled out a commercial innovation program across the brand's franchise in May, which further enhanced the brand's growth, including our newest extension, Fiamma Assoluta, which has seen very positive feedback so far. During the second quarter, Chinese singer and actor Carrie Wang joined the Ferragamo family as the brand's global fragrance ambassador. As mentioned earlier, Asia Pacific is increasingly embracing fragrance. We are hopeful that Carys' affiliation with Ferragamo will further elevate the brand in this burgeoning market. Donatara Dikiawa climbed 12% in the first half, punctuated by a 28% increase in the second quarter, with healthy demand across categories and franchise and e-commerce, becoming an increasing engine for the brand's growth. The Kashmir Miss deal remains a fixture on TikTok, Shop, and Amazon. Roberto Carrelli grew 8% in the first half, fueled by this year's introduction across several franchises, among them the unisex St. Marblous Cypress, and several other fragrances launched earlier this year. Serpentine continues to be a massive success for the brand globally. The war in the Middle East is certainly impacting this brand, and Cavalry is our largest brand in the region. Notwithstanding the world's impact, our conviction, excitement, the trajectory of a brand remains strong. A few brands faced steeper conversions. Lacoste came in 16% below last year when a string of heat launches lifted first-half sales to 44%, and conditions in Eastern Europe added pressure. We introduced L1212 Blue for men during the second quarter, and with major initiatives lined up for 2027 and 2028, we believe the brand's best performance lies ahead. Recognition keeps coming for our fragrance as well. La Alanca from Oscar de la Renta took home the best eau de parfum at the Eau Claire Fragrance Awards 2026, and Agamo Signorina Romantica was honored as the best sensual gourmand fragrance at the Who, What, Wear Fragrance Awards 2026. Owners like this celebrate the artistry of our team and partners and add to the desirability of our portfolio. Women as consumers remain increasingly selective about how they allocate their products. The United States fragrance was once again the fastest-growing beauty category in the first half, owing to its status as an affordable indulgence and daily form of self-expression. The market has normalized after several years of exceptional growth, but the opportunity remains attractive. For us, the opportunity is very clear. We share with brands that have personality, quality, and global reach. Across our portfolio, we have many ways to speak to consumers and that diversity is one of our greatest strengths. Beyond success and innovation from our core brands so far this year, we've also made significant strides in developing and expanding our newest portfolio brands. like is rebuilding momentum in high-end fragrance with existing having resumed distribution and reopening of Paris boutiques. We are also preparing the launch of new fragrances in 2027. Lastly, newly created Holioran Solferino extended to 100 total point of sales at the end of the first half of this year, and we plan to launch an 11th fragrance to the initial collection in the second half of this year. And we are also preparing for the first launches of new fragrances for Longchamp and Off-White in 2027. Longchamp has the potential to become our next 100 million brand, and Off-White represents another step for us into the high-end category. Here, the top of that is the extraordinary rise of digital commerce, which has been a growth driver for us in the second quarter, highlighting Amazon and TikTok Shop. Amazon now sells more beauty online than anyone else in both the U.S. and Europe, while TikTok Shop has become the fourth largest beauty e-commerce platform in the U.S. and is quickly expanding across Europe. We will stay ahead of the curve to identify evolving behaviors, continuously adapt how, where, and when we engage. So we make consumers not just where they are, but where they are heading. Consumers are also making friends, personal, layering scents, assembling fragrance wardrobes, and turning to AI-powered recommendations to guide discovery. However, they choose to find us on social media, on the major marketplaces, or in stores. We are meeting them with storytelling that carries across every channel and delivers an immersive, consistent brand experience. Ultimately, this business is about inspiring desire, offering consumers an entry point into the world of an iconic fashion house or celebrity, and we work every day to keep the desire burning across each of our worlds. Travel retail remained a steady contributor, once again accounting for roughly 7% of total net sales, in line with prior periods. Europe is where the tunnel is strongest today, with conditions softer elsewhere, including, of course, the Middle East. And we see steady growth ahead of this business. I will touch on tariffs, given the newest round implemented under Section 301. As a reminder, our manufacturing is based primarily in Europe, and the rates under this latest wave are largely in line with what we were operating under, so we don't expect to see meaningful changes to our cost structure moving forward. That said, we are not standing still. We are increasingly working to position our distributors closer to the point of sale, which shortens supply lines and helps mitigate tariff impacts while keeping our brands close to the consumer. We are also working on cost-saving initiatives to help...

Okay, please, Ramon, on the line. Okay, our speaker is back with us. You can continue. I'm so sorry.

I don't know where you lost me, but anyway, I'm at the end of my comments. So I think that while the environment remains anything that we are demonstrating that we can do more than manage with turbulence, we can grow through it. The fragrance category remains resilient. our brands are transforming and on track to deliver on our goals this year. We remain cautious about the balance of fantasies, mindful of disruption in the Middle East, but energized by improving trends with elsewhere, and confident in our ability to keep operating efficiently and profitably while driving discipline, sustainable, long-term growth for our customers, brand partners, and consumers. With that, I will now turn it over to Michel for a review of our firm. Michel?

Thank you, Jean, and good morning, everyone. I will begin by discussing the consolidated results before breaking them down into our two operating units, European and United States-based operations. overall the diversity of our portfolio continued to support global growth with strength in select brands and geographies offsetting softness elsewhere and driving our overall results this year's u.s based results benefited from a favorable comparison against last year's second quarter which was weighed down by weaker innovation and tariff related supply chain disruptions, whereas our European results are cycling a prior year period of strong growth and therefore face the much tougher year-over-year comparison in the current quarter. Echoing Jean's comments, we maintain a strong financial position, operated with efficiency, and continued to invest in our brand portfolio. Net sales grew modestly in 2026 second quarter and first half with reported sales of 2% in each period. These were helped by foreign exchange. Organic growth in 2026 periods was impacted by lingering headwinds associated with the war in the Middle East. Excluding these factors, organic growth improved by 4% in the second quarter and 1% in the first half, respectively. Our seven largest brands, which represented 81% of our first half sales, grew 6%, and our expanding direct-to-retail channel, which represented 42% of first-half sales, grew 9%. Furthermore, our top-20 brand region combination, which represent 84% of our sales, grew a healthy 7%, showcasing the overall strength of our core business. While the stronger euro has continued to favor our top line, it also increases our cost base across the P&L and our balance sheet. We are continuing to implement a variety of actions to mitigate that impact and have been pleased with the results. While gross margin declined slightly in the 2026 second quarter, first half gross margin expanded by 30 basis points to 65.3% from 65%. And this was primarily driven by a favorable segment brand and channel mix, as well as lower destruction costs, which reflect our continued focus on inventory and supply chain management. These gains were partially offset by tariffs, which represented a net additional expense of $8.2 million in the first half of 2026 compared to last year. As of June 30, 2026, the company also received $8.7 million in IEPA tariff refunds, of which $6.9 million was recognized as a non-recurring reduction in cost of sales in the second quarter. In July 2026, we received the remaining balance of the $17.6 million in IEPA tariff refunds owned. These funds will benefit quarter three and quarter four of this year. For the total year, we expect gross margins to improve by roughly 150 basis points, with 110 basis points improvements coming from the tariff refunds, and the balance coming from favorable brand and channel mix, as well as cost efficiency programs. Higher SG&A expenses for the 2026 period resulted from higher brand marketing investments, royalty costs growing ahead of sales due to unfavorable brand mix, as well as higher logistics costs related to supply chain transitions and channel mix. Our A&P spending for the first half of 26 rose to $129 million, or 18.8% of sales. This reflects our ongoing commitment to investing in our existing brands and upcoming launches. We are reinvesting the tariff refunds to protect our top-line growth and position the company for a successful 2027. As such, we anticipate that on a four-year basis, A&P expenditures will approach our long-term target of approximately 21% of net sales. For the first half of 2026, consolidated operating profit declined to $123 million with an operating margin of 17.9% compared to an operating margin of 20% in the prior year period. Below the operating line, other income and expenses swung to a gain of $0.4 million in the first half from a loss of $6.7 million in the prior year period, a positive impact of $7 million. The improvement was driven by higher interest and investment income, reflecting a stronger ROI on our excess cash and gains on marketable equity securities as well as lower foreign exchange losses. Our consolidated effective tax rate for the first half was a stable 24.2% compared to 24.3% in the prior year period. And for the first half, net income held stable at $74 million, or $2.31 per diluted share, compared to $2.32 in the prior year period. Now, moving to our two business segments, I will start with European-based operations. Net sales declined modestly to 4% in the second quarter and 1% in the first half, with 5% organic declines in each period, partially offset by favorable foreign exchange. I will again note that our European-based operations competed against a very high growth comparison in the prior year periods. Gross margin was at 67.4% in both the second quarter and the first half, versus 68.3% and 66.9% in the prior year periods. The quarterly decline was driven by unfavorable brand and channel mix, along with higher tariff costs that were partially offset by one-time tariff refunds. The year-to-date improvement was supported by mixed lower destruction costs and $2.7 million of IEPA tariff refunds, partially offset by tariffs, which represented an initial expense of $4.5 million. SG&A increased 8% in the second quarter and first half, rising to $125 million and $229 million, or 53.9% of net sales. and 47.4 in the second quarter. The driver of the higher marketing is tied to product launches and brand investments. Royalty costs also grew ahead of sales, driven by unfavorable brand mix. Employee-related costs expanded as we continued building up our Korean subsidiary, and we saw higher logistic costs related to increased warehousing fees and supply chain transitions. overall net income attributable to european-based operations declined to 23 million for the quarter representing 10 percent of net sales compared to 13.6 in the prior year period for the first half net income attributable to european-based operations was 73 million representing a very healthy 15 percent of net sales compared to 16.6 in the prior year period now turning to our united States-based operations. Unlike our European-based operations, these results benefited from a favorable comparison base, as second quarter 2025 results were negatively impacted by the factors we discussed earlier. With that context, net sales rose 18% in the second quarter, reflecting organic growth of 17%, and a 1% positive foreign exchange impact. The spursoriments lifted first-half sales growth to 10%, comprising 8% organic growth and 2% foreign exchange tailwind. Gross margin expanded 90 basis points to 61.6% from 60.7% in the second quarter and 60 basis points to 60.3% from 59.7% for the first half. Tariff refunds representing $4.2 million, as well as lower levels of destruction costs, helped offset unfavorable channel and product mix and higher ongoing tariff costs. SG&A grew 9% in the quarter and 6% in the first half, each below our sales growth. As a result, SG&A declined as a percentage of net sales to 44.2% and 46% respectively, compared to 48% and 47.8% in the prior year periods, reflecting productivity gains from accelerated sales growth and partially offset by unfavorable brand mix on royalties. Overall, net income attributable to U.S.-based operations grew to $15 million for the quarter, representing 13.7% of net sales compared to 10% in the prior year period, and to $24 million in the first half, representing 11.4% of net sales compared to 9.6% last year. Moving to cash, at June 30th, our balance sheet remained strong with $211 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and working capital of $664 million. From a cash flow perspective, accounts receivable declined 3% from year-end 2025, and day sales outstanding decreased slightly to 73 days from 74 days in the prior year period. These were driven by changes in our channel mix. We continue to see strong collecting activity and do not anticipate any issues with collections of account receivable. Despite foreign exchange headwinds on our costs, inventories declined 12% to $376 million compared to the prior year period, representing a 34-day reduction in inventory days on hand to 269 days, as we continue to drive inventory efficiencies and work to increase the conversion of raw materials into finished goods. by effectively managing working capital relative to our sales growth we again significantly improved our operating cash flow cash flow generated from operating activities reached 46 million in the first half or 49 percent of net income up from five million dollars or five percent of net income in the prior year period obviously operating cash flow also benefited from the receipt of the 8.7 million in IEPA TAF refunds. But we continue to expect strong free cash flow productivity in 2026 and beyond. Now, as noted in our Form 10Q, our board has authorized the share repurchase program as an additional capital allocation tool. This gives us flexibility to evaluate potential repurchases of shares of Interparfume Inc. or shares of Interparfume SA, or both, depending on market conditions, liquidity, relative valuation, and other business priorities. The board has also authorized the company to enter into a line of credit of up to $250 million to support the program, enhancing our financial flexibility and optionality without obligating us to draw the full amount or complete any specific level of repurchase. We intend to approach the program in a measured and disciplined way while continuing to prioritize the needs of the business, strategic investment opportunities, and long-term value creation for our shareholders. Now, turning to our 2026 guidance and outlook, as outlined in our earnings release issued last evening, we are maintaining our full-year outlook. We continue to expect sales of approximately $1.48 billion and diluted earnings per share of $4.85. Our EPS guidance includes the expected benefits of the $17.6 million of tariff refunds we have received this year, which is enabling us to reinvest in A&P and offset higher than expected tariff and logistic costs. With refunds received, we will reinvest in our brands to drive growth. We continue to anticipate a return to improved growth in 2027, driven by enhanced innovation, including a series of blockbuster launches planned for 27 and 28, as well as the development and distribution of our newest brands that Jean talked about. Overall, we remain mindful of external pressures, including the war in the Middle East, moderating demand in several international markets, overall economic concerns and pressures that may arise from recently enacted tariffs on our cost structures, but we are continuing to closely monitor potential inflationary impacts as suppliers adjust pricing. Nevertheless, we remain well-positioned with a strong innovation pipeline, enduring global partnerships, and a resilient consumer base that collectively reinforce our confidence in our long-term growth and value creation. With that, Rob, please open the line for questions.

Thank you. At this time, we'll be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question comes from Sydney Wagner with Jeffries. your line is now live.

Hi, thanks for taking our question. So first of all, maybe just to ask about the consumer. You mentioned some consumer selectivity. Can you just talk about how that's manifesting itself in fragrance? Understand that the category overall has been strong, but you know, maybe are you seeing fewer add-ons, buying smaller sizes, or is this driven kind of a shift toward promotional occasions? I guess within that, maybe also just comment on the promotional environment. And then on China, we've heard some reports of international players now doing better in China versus domestic brands. Are you seeing any change in consumer demand or sell-through trends there that have improved versus maybe what you've seen six to 12 months ago? Thank you.

Yeah, sure, Sydney.

Look, overall, we continue to see healthy demands. We're not seeing any significant increases in promotionality. I mean, there was certainly over the holiday season last year, there was a little bit more gift sets than we typically see in the holiday period. But overall, I would say it's been it's quite normalized. And a lot of the pricing increases that have been that have been taken have kind of stuck. I know that there have been some conversations around, you know, the entry price points and smaller sizes. We're not really seeing anything in that space. It's pretty much normalizing. In terms of China, the market is actually doing quite well, and we're seeing some significant growth there. But again, the China fragrance market is generally quite small for us, but it's been growing and it's been actually quite healthy. Jean?

Yes. Yes, there is no particular increase of small size, and we do not have any more promotional activity. We do not have anything special to report on that. And regarding China, what we can see is that when we are able to find and sign celebrity ambassadors that have hundreds of millions of followers, of course, this accelerates the sale. and that's what we are doing for Agamo, for Coach and going forward we will definitely continue to hire this very, very big celebrity to be ambassadors and to talk about the brand in China.

Our next question comes from Susan Anderson with Canaccord Genuity. Your line is now live.

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I was wondering if maybe you could just expand on some of the Blockbuster launches you see coming next year, maybe if there's any color you can provide on timing of them flowing through in 2027. And then also, I guess the same with the new licenses, Longchamp and Off-White, how are you thinking about those flowing through for the year? And then just in terms of the investment around those new launches and licenses, how should we think about that flowing through the income statement?

I can try to answer the first part of the question. I will let Michelle talk about the investment. 27 is going to be impressive because all our big brands, all our big brands, the ones that are doing 100 million and above, will have a Blockbuster. So for the people who are not familiar, Blockbuster means a whole new launch, a whole new pillar, so Montblanc, Coach, Guest, Jimmy Two, all will have a Blockbuster. It's quite unusual for us, usually. It doesn't happen all in the same year. So the cadence will be across all the quarters. We are not going to launch all January 1. It will be cadence during the year. It's difficult to give you what is impact truly. When we have blockbuster in one of our brands, it has a high effect on the whole brand. So that's why we can expect we have Blockbuster to have a growth of high single digits, sometimes double digits. So it will be very exciting and it will continue into 2028 also. Michel, you want to talk about investment? Or maybe, excuse me, investment. Longchamp, very exciting. I think Longchamp is a beautiful brand known for their bags. We had great success with Coach. So we think that Longchamp will be also very successful. We showed the products to all our distributors, retailers, and the response is very positive. So that's why I said in my remarks that Longchamp has the potential to become quickly a $100 million brand. Off-White is going to be also interesting because this is not a license. This is a trademark that we bought a year and a half ago, and we will be launching men's and women's fragrance in the end of the first quarter of this year. Michel, if you want to talk about investments.

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Jean. So investment side, obviously, when you have significant launches, you will have to invest more. But our thinking is that we'll be able to kind of cover this, you know, within the rest of the P&L. We should get, you know, if we get significant sales acceleration, we should, you know, see some scale benefits on the rest of the P&L. So really our goal is to, you know, fund this within the P&L. But again, until we actually put together the plan, the sequencing, we won't have any clear visibility to that. Again, number one priority for us remains profitable top-line growth, and that's really where we're going to continue to head over the next couple of years.

Great. Thank you so much. Good luck to the rest of the year.

Thank you, Susan.

Thanks, Susan. Our next question comes from Jonah Kim with TD Cowan. Your line is now live.

Thank you for taking our question. The first one is, how are you measuring your efficiency of marketing spend as you continue to invest in that? Any key channels and priorities that you could talk about would be helpful. And then second question, what would take you to raise Guide at this point? What are key factors you are currently monitoring for the Guide? Thank you.

Yeah, sure. Sure. I mean, we, you know, we measure the ROI of our spending. I mean, most of our spending today is really done on digital and as well as, you know, on social media and using influencers. And so we have tools to kind of measure what is working, what's not working. And generally, that's where we're flowing most of our dollars. We're also flowing a lot of our dollars really towards the fast-growing channels, which as Jean pointed out, you know, Amazon, TikTok, online. So really those are the areas. In terms of increasing our guidelines, obviously I think, you know, there are a number of things in the second half that we're kind of waiting to see what happens, as you've probably seen. I mean, you know, we have done a little bit better on the top line than we were originally planning. We have been helped by FX. We're starting to see FX move in the opposite direction. There's also the considerations in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, which have kind of been weighing down in our growth. So I think if things improve there, either that may help us. But again, it's going to depend on when that happens during the year. I would say that that's the main element. And then on the rest of the P&L, I think, you know, it's going to probably be very similar to what we saw kind of last year, with the exception of A&P, which we're expecting to continue to fuel more investments in A&P to shore up the growth. Jean, I don't know if you have any questions on that. Any other comments on that, Jean?

No, no, I think you covered it. I totally agree. My guidance is always a chicote exercise because there are so many parameters that we have to But right now, we are comfortable with the actual guidance. Next question.

Our next question comes from Aaron Ebski with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now live.

Thank you. Good morning, Jean-Michel. Thanks for taking my questions. I have three. Firstly, on inventory levels, as we enter the peak fragrance trading period, how would you assess retailer and distribute inventories at this stage across the U.S. and Europe? Are there any pockets of elevated stocks that could lead to destocking? Second, just to actually follow up on the 2027 launch cycle, I believe the juices for these products are now ready, so I was wondering how complementary from an olfactory standpoint do you expect these new products to be, Or would you expect to see some cannibalization within the portfolio as you launch this? And then lastly, on the outlook for the remainder of the year, how should we think about the growth cadence between Q3 and Q4? Are there any specific phasing factors to consider? And similarly, on profitability, how do you expect gross margin and operating margin progression to develop across the two remaining quarters, and if there are any phasing factors to consider?

Thank you, Aaron. I let you start and I will comment I didn't really understand Aaron your question about the 2027 launches yeah just to clarify the send profile I guess of these new products do you expect them to be complementary to your current offering or is there some risk of cannibalization ok ok of course alright let's start But Michel, you want to start with inventory, please?

Yeah, let me start with inventory. So overall, we're finding that the destocking is really kind of starting to normalize. And we're not really seeing any significant areas where there's very high inventory levels or very low inventory levels. But I would say overall, we're feeling pretty comfortable, even though I'd say structurally, inventory will probably continue to go in and go down for the reasons we have explained in the past, which is, you know, as people become more and more efficient, as more people buy online, there's naturally going to be less inventory in the system. But overall, we're not really seeing some of the concerns that we had, I would say, over the last 12 months. It seems to be normalizing. Jean, I don't know if you want to add anything on the inventory piece.

Yes, this is, of course, something that we look at very carefully. and we monitor inventory at the level of our distributors and when we have information at the level of our retailers. And I will say that inventory at both levels are quite low in the sense that they are well managed by our distributors and by our retailers. They are ordering on a weekly or every other week basis. So I don't see any heavy inventory in stores. Maybe a little light for certain people like Amazon and TikTok, but their business is growing at a fast pace and sometimes we have difficulty to anticipate their need, which is a problem to have, but we need to be vigilant to make sure that we don't miss any business there. I don't see talking like you said, Michel.

Okay, maybe I'll touch on the outlook for the rest of the year and then we can go back to the second question on the launch cycle. As you know, Aaron, we don't really like to guide by quarter. It's difficult enough to guide for the year in the current environment. What I can say is that if you look at our guidance, it implies a 3% decline in the second half versus last year. There's going to be about a point of that that's going to come from FX. As you know, we had a higher FX has helped us in the first half, but we expect it to hurt us. Again, there's a big question mark around that. And then if you look at the third quarter versus the fourth quarter, last year, fourth quarter was stronger. So I kind of would expect that, you know, as you balance that off between the third and the fourth quarter, it would look a little bit better in the third and a little bit worse in the fourth. I don't know if that helps on the top line. On the SG&A side, or sorry, on the cost of goods side, frankly, it's really going to depend on how we account for these tariff refunds. That's going to drive the impact. As you know, the tariff refunds are based on not when the money comes in, but when we think it actually hits our P&L. So there could be some significant helps in the third quarter coming from that, but we haven't really modeled that out yet. But, you know, that's something that we'll be working on over the next couple of weeks. And then on the SG&A side, I would say most of the A&P increase that you're seeing in the second half is going to be mostly on the third quarter. We generally always have a very, very strong fourth quarter. And so you'll see those investments primarily more in the third quarter to strengthen the third quarter in preparation of the key consumption period in the fourth quarter. So I don't know if you had anything you wanted to add on that piece.

No, that's your part. Okay. So the sound profile is a very interesting question. So we're going to launch, as we said, a lot of new blockbusters next year. And, of course, when we started to think about what we are going to launch, and this takes 18 to 24 months, we do a mapping of an olfactive mapping to make sure that what we are going to launch doesn't cannibalize or doesn't go into the territory of the other franchise. So, basically, with a new blockbuster, we're going to try to get new customers, maybe a different age, maybe a different taste, maybe a different geography. So, this question is very interesting because we look for each brand at the spot that we are not reaching and that's what we want to accomplish. So, of course, a new cannibalization could happen, but we're looking at additional sales.

Yeah, maybe just to build on Jean, I mean, when we design a blockbuster, the key is really to identify an unmet need from a consumer standpoint. You know, we look at the existing consumers and we look at why certain consumers are not buying. And if those consumers are not buying but are interested in the brand, we try to develop a consumer proposition that is going to cover some of those unmet needs. And so it's not always about necessarily a effective profile, but it also has to do with also the consumer proposition and the packaging and the concepts in a lot of areas like that. This is one of the reasons why it's so critical that it takes time to do this properly. The other area also that comes into effect on cannibalization is the level of incremental investments. So, you know, if you rob Peter to pay Paul, you definitely won't get you may get the uplift, but you'll see more cannibalization. And again, coming back to the question we got around investment profile, you know, those are some of the areas that we have to look into as we start working through our 2027 plan. You know, how aggressively do we want to invest relative to, you know, the potential risk of cannibalization? And again, there the idea is to, you know, privilege profitable top line growth.

That's very clear. Thank you very much.

Our next question comes from Fraser Donlan with Berenberg. Your line is now live.

Hi, John and Michelle. It's Fraser here from Berenberg. Thanks for taking the question. I have two. So the first was just to ask about some of the kind of smaller tail brands in the portfolio, because I think you have maybe three which are expiring in 2026 or with extension options, which may not be taken up. I don't know. So, like, how are you thinking about that internally? And I guess the add-on to that would be, is there still an appetite to add potentially larger brands, either within the EU ops or the US ops? And then the second question was just on your inventory into year end. How should we think about that, given you do have this really kind of strong pipeline building for 2027 when it comes to your own inventory? Thank you very much.

Michel, do you want to start talking about the small brands?

I mean, obviously, you know, when we look at our portfolio, as you know, we have added a lot of larger brands. And we've also, you know, have a pipeline of brands that are coming with both Nautica and David Beckham. Ultimately, you know, while our business model enables us to manage, you know, all types of brands quite efficiently in terms of, you know, capacity utilization and allocation of resources. We always look at these smaller brands toward the end of their life cycle and then, you know, we'll make decisions in conjunction with the existing license partners. Again, we can't typically comment on those things until, you know, we're advanced, but I would say generally, you know, the smaller brands in the portfolio, you know, when they come to the end of their useful life, you know, and don't necessarily make sense in our portfolio anymore those are things that we are you know considering and you know we have talked about you know building one to two points of headwinds you know to account for those things so I don't know if you want to come yeah but but no I would like to comment on on new license and new new brands we are active we are still actively looking for more license as much

as michelle mentioned we're gonna we have david beckham and joining the portfolio when and we still have time for that, but we are actively talking to other brands, either some that have fragrance license already and some that do not have fragrance license. and we see that with the organization that we have, with the diverse portfolio that we have, we can still accommodate new brands either in Paris or in New York.

Yeah, and then on the inventory, of course inventory buildup will be dependent on actually when we phase and when we launch, but overall I think we're feeling pretty good about the progress that we've been making on inventory And, you know, we feel confident that, you know, we should see a much better position at the end of this year than what we had last year. Again, you know, hard to really say until we actually have a clear read on our inventory buildup. But not all of our launches are going to happen on January 1st next year. Some of them are going to happen in the back half of the year. So, yeah, we should see some of these improvements that we've seen now across the various quarters. continuing into your end.

Great. Thanks for that.

We have reached the end of the question and answer session. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Michelle Atwood for closing comments.

All right. Thank you, Rob. Thank you all for joining us today. Jean and I really want to recognize our teams, our partners, our brands, and all of our stakeholders' dedication, trust, and agility continue to drive efficiency and support our success as we navigate our uncertain environment together. I would also like to mention that I'll be participating in the Canaccord Annual Growth Conference in Boston on August 11th and 12th, so next week. So if you'd like to participate, please reach out to your sales representative at Canaccord for information. And if you have any additional questions, please contact Devin Sullivan or Conor Rodriguez from the Equity Group, our investor relations representatives. And thank you and have a great day.

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. And we thank you for your participation.