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NE · Noble Corp plc

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$45.10 +0.81 (+1.83%) At close · Aug 14
Market Cap
$7.20B
Shares
159.64M
All earnings calls

Earnings call · FY2025 Q4

Noble Corp plc Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Noble Corp plc Q4 FY2025 Earnings Call

Concluded Feb 11, 2026
Feb 11, 2026 7 turns
Period
FY2025 Q4
Runtime
Sources
4 artifacts

Executive readout · one minute

What matters this quarter

Noble reported Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $232M and full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA slightly above the $1.1B midpoint of original guidance, while securing ~$1.3B in new contract awards that lifted backlog to $7.5B. Management guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA to $940M-$1.02B and framed 2027 as a meaningful earnings and free cash flow inflection, with 2027 backlog already exceeding 2026 backlog.

Contract awards and backlog growth 18 2027 earnings and free cash flow inflection 12 Petrobras and South America demand 9 Noble Great White / Norway entry 8 Capital expenditures and fleet upgrades 7 Dayrates and pricing environment 6

Management tone

Confident

Net tone +55 · moderate hedging

Grounding quotes
  • “we have continued to see strong booking levels across our fleet, with backlog increasing to $7,500,000,000”
  • “the foundation has been set for a steadily improving activity level as we progress through this year and into 2027”
  • “we have increasing tangible visibility to a healthy inflection in both EBITDA and free cash flow next year”
  • “the contracted ultra-deepwater (UDW) rig count has now bounced back up to 105, up from a recent low of 97 early last year, and is closing in on the 2024 high watermark of 107 contracted UDW rigs”

Forward guidance

3 guided metrics

Management's latest ranges and targets are included below.

Research coverage

4 live sources

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Revenue · derived Q4 $764.41M -17.6% YoY
Net income · derived Q4 $86.64M -10.4% YoY

Research materials

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Key takeaways

What improved, and what deserves a closer read.

Constructive signals

  • Backlog rose to $7.5B with ~$1.3B in new contract awards since October, including ~10 rig years of new bookings.
  • Noble Great White awarded a three-year Aker BP contract in Norway valued at $473M, with ~$240M EBITDA potential and capital recovery targeted in the first two years.
  • 2027 backlog has exceeded 2026 backlog, which management described as the first instance in many years, signaling a 2027 EBITDA and free cash flow inflection.
  • Illustrative 2027 annualized run rate of ~$1.3B EBITDA and ~$600M free cash flow assuming 13 of 15 tier-one drillships working at current rates.
  • Board declared another $0.50 per share quarterly dividend, bringing cumulative capital returned since Q4 2022 to ~$1.3B.
  • Full year 2025 free cash flow of $454M and contracted UDW rig count rebounded to 105 (95% marketed utilization) versus a recent low of 97.

Risks & pressure points

  • Q4 contract drilling services revenue of $705M declined sequentially from $757M, driven by lower average utilization and dayrates; marketed fleet utilization was 64% in Q4.
  • Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $232M was down from $254M in Q3 and $319M in the year-ago quarter; Q4 adjusted net income fell to $14M from $91M a year ago.
  • Brent prices hovering around five-year lows of $60-$70 per barrel; tier-one drillship dayrates have settled at ~$400,000/day with lower-spec units in the low to high $300,000s, described as soft dayrates.
  • U.S. Gulf deepwater demand showed a slight decrease and Petrobras budget pressure has emerged as a near-term headwind with slower contract executions and blend-and-extend negotiations.
  • Six Noble rigs (Black Rhino, Voyager, Valiant, Great White, Johnny D'Souza, Endeavor) sit idle today despite future contracts in hand, reflecting prompt white space overhang.
  • 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $940M-$1.02B is below 2025's ~$1.1B, and CapEx of $590M-$640M is elevated by upgrade and reactivation projects, including ~$80M of Great White project CapEx in 2026.

Key moments

Jump directly to management's words in the synchronized transcript.

“The great news for Noble is that our backlog progress has already formed a strong foundation for rising utilization, EBITDA, and free cash flow, without necessarily a great deal of wind at our backs from a macro perspective. This sets us up well toward our goal of maintaining our robust shareholder returns through a transitional year in 2026 and supports visibility for a meaningful step-up in free cash flow next year even in a flat world.” Robert Eifler, CEO

Forward guidance

From the 8-K filed Feb 11, 2026.

Metric Guided
Total Revenue
full year 2026
$2.8B – $3B
Adjusted EBITDA
full year 2026
$940M – $1.02B
Capital Expenditures
full year 2026
$590M – $640M

Quarter detail

How the reported period landed and where the business moved.

Capital returned

Dividend / share
$0.50
Full-screen source Call document