Hut 8 (HUT $48.94 -23.23%) fell 23.2% on November 4. Cipher (CIFR $6.50 -19.95%) fell 20.0%, Galaxy (GLXY $13.97 -16.99%) 17.0% and CleanSpark (CLSK $6.80 -16.56%) 16.6%. The day before, Texas voters elected Gina Hinojosa governor, after she promised a moratorium, in her words "a ban", on all data center approvals until the Legislature passes new protections. She takes office on January 19.
The same day, Riot (RIOT $15.37 +9.63%) rose 9.6%.
Texas is a large part of the AI buildout: about 27% of US data center gigawatts, by a Wells Fargo estimate reported by CNBC, via StockTitan. But "exposed to Texas" covers very different positions. So we read what nine listed companies have told investors about their Texas capacity and where it stands with ERCOT, the state's grid operator.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for HUT:
The short answer
- About 18.5 GW of Texas capacity across nine companies. It mixes gross power, utility capacity and critical IT load, so treat it as an order of magnitude.
- About 3.7 GW (20%) is approved or outside ERCOT's Batch Zero study by the companies' own account: Riot's 1.7 GW, 1.63 GW ERCOT approved at Galaxy's Helios campus, and 371 MW at Core Scientific's Denton site.
- About 8.7 GW (47%) is conditional or still working through ERCOT while an audit runs: Cipher, the rest of Core Scientific, the rest of Galaxy and Hut 8's Beacon Point.
- About 6.0 GW (33%) has no stated ERCOT status or still needs approval: IREN, MARA, CleanSpark, TeraWulf and Hut 8's two West Texas sites.
- The drop was smaller than the headlines. These stocks rose 11.1% to 18.4% on election day. Over the two days, Hut 8 lost 11.0%, Cipher 5.2%, and Core Scientific gained 2.0%.
At a glance
| Company | Texas capacity, as stated | Where it stands with ERCOT, as stated | Nov 4 | Nov 3 and 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riot | 1,700 MW: Rockdale 700, Corsicana 1,000 | Existing capacity energized and not subject to the audit; Corsicana expansion approved under the prior process, classified as base load | +9.6% | +29.8% |
| Core Scientific | 1,402 MW: Denton 371, Pecos 600, Hunt 431 | Denton outside Batch Zero; Pecos 300 MW base load and 300 MW studied load, Hunt 431 MW base load, all conditional | -10.4% | +2.0% |
| Cipher | 2,600 MW classified: Colchis 1,000, other sites 1,600 | Conditional base load at Colchis, conditional studied load for the rest | -20.0% | -5.2% |
| Galaxy | 5,730 MW potential: Helios 1,630 approved, 4,100 more | ERCOT approved 1,630 MW at Helios; of the rest, part is conditional studied load subject to the audit, part expansion | -17.0% | -4.2% |
| IREN | 2,750 MW: Childress 750, Sweetwater 2,000 | No status stated; warns of possible delays or changes to energization levels | -11.2% | -1.4% |
| Hut 8 | 1,230 MW: Beacon Point 1,000, two West Texas sites up to 230 | Beacon Point baseload designation subject to the audit, unconditional classification expected December 17; the two sites are "subject to final power approvals" | -23.2% | -11.0% |
| MARA | 2,000 MW at Matagorda, under a utility letter agreement | Purchase subject to ERCOT approval; first payment depends on Batch Zero approval | -4.1% | +6.8% |
| CleanSpark | Up to 885 MW | Last 10-Q never mentions ERCOT; in August the CEO expected no change to energization timelines | -16.6% | -4.9% |
| TeraWulf | 168 MW of critical IT load at Abernathy | Last 10-Q never mentions ERCOT | -6.6% | +6.9% |
Much of Texas was already stopped
A moratorium would not land on a working process. Most of it has been on hold since August.
- August 3: Governor Abbott directed the state's utility regulator and ERCOT to audit data center projects before any more are approved. Requests in the queue total about 474 GW.
- August 20: the regulator gave ERCOT more time, which Riot's 10-Q says delayed the Batch Zero study and the capacity allocations that follow from it.
- September 21: Abbott told the state's environmental agency to suspend permits sought by data centers.
- October 8: new rules took effect for loads of 75 MW or more, including a $100,000 study fee and security of $50,000 per MW.
- December 10: when ERCOT expects to issue its reports, according to Cipher's 10-Q. It also says ERCOT "has temporarily paused certain energization approvals for large data center loads".
Hinojosa has issued nothing yet, and her goals on tax breaks need the Legislature. Jefferies analysts, as Bloomberg reported via TheEnergyMag, expected tighter rules to raise development costs more than they restrict the pipeline. We found no statement on whether a moratorium would reach projects already approved or under construction, and that is the line that matters most for the table above.
The three positions
Outside the process. Riot's 10-Q, filed November 4, is the clearest statement from anyone: "Because the existing capacity at our Rockdale Facility and Corsicana Facility was already energized, it is not subject to the audit." Management told analysts the same morning: "There's not additional approval needed to execute on developments here." The limit is new growth: any new Texas site, or any expansion needing a new interconnection, would be studied in a later batch. Riot's rise also had its own cause, a 15-year lease at Corsicana for 910 MW worth about $28 billion, announced that day.
Conditional. Core Scientific gave the most detail, in a site-by-site 8-K on September 10. For Pecos it adds: "We will not receive the final allocation and load ramp until the conclusion of the Batch Zero process." Cipher reports a conditional base load classification for 1 GW at Colchis and conditional studied load for another 1.6 GW. Galaxy's 10-Q says ERCOT has approved over 1.6 GW at Helios: 800 MW leased to CoreWeave and 830 MW without a tenant. Its October slides show 5,730 MW of potential capacity across Texas, a figure that "assumes full approval and allocation", and part of the other 4,100 MW is conditionally classified as studied load.
Not stated, or not approved. MARA has the largest single site at risk, 2,000 MW at Matagorda, but its contract limits the cash involved: the 10-Q says the first milestone payment depends on Batch Zero approval, "with no payment due absent such approval". CleanSpark's 10-Q says a tenant signed a letter of intent covering its whole Texas portfolio, up to 885 MW, and never mentions ERCOT. On the August call, three days after Abbott's letter, its CEO said "there is no anticipated change to our energization timelines", which is the last thing it has told investors. TeraWulf's 10-Q doesn't mention ERCOT either, though it reports on November 6.
What the filings leave open
Hut 8 has the most concentrated bet, and its answer is in the call, not the filings. Of the 1,330 MW it has under construction, 1,000 MW is at Beacon Point in Texas, or 75%, and it has already issued $4.25 billion of notes to build the first phase. Neither the Q3 release nor the 10-Q filed on November 4 contains the words ERCOT, Batch Zero or moratorium, but management addressed all of it on that day's call. CEO Asher Genoot raised the election before questions: "For Beacon Point Phase 1, our baseload designation remains subject to Governor Abbott's audit." He said Hut 8 anticipates "an unconditional classification on December 17", and CFO Sean Glennan said audit results are expected on December 10. Genoot also said the company doesn't believe the result changes the outlook for Beacon Point, and that less than 5% of its greenfield pipeline is in ERCOT. The same release says the two West Texas sites it is buying are energized, while their up to 230 MW at full energization is "subject to final power approvals".
Riot and Core Scientific describe energized load differently. Core Scientific's existing 300 MW at Pecos, energized after March 25, 2022, sits inside Batch Zero as conditionally approved base load, with its final allocation still to come. Its 297 MW at Denton, energized before that date, is conditionally approved but outside the allocation. Riot says its energized capacity isn't subject to the audit at all, and its 10-Q names no pathway. Both accounts can be true, but the filings don't explain why one energized site waits for an allocation and another doesn't.
IREN's language is broader than its reassurance. On its August call it spoke of "two very large sites already energised in Texas". Its 10-K, filed the same day, warns of delays in energization or changes to energization levels at "new and existing projects". It gives no classification for 2,750 MW.
What the market actually did
The headline numbers come from one session. On November 3, before the results were in, the same nine stocks rose 11.1% to 18.4%. We did not identify a single cause, and the move was wider than Texas: CoreWeave, Nebius and Applied Digital rose 7% to 10% that day. Measured from the November 2 close, only Hut 8 lost more than 6%, and it also reported Q3 results that morning.
The longer slide is harder to pin on Texas. Since July 31, the last close before Abbott's letter, the nine are down 23.8% to 70.9%. But Applied Digital (APLD $16.61 -6.74%), based in Dallas with no Texas site in its latest 10-Q and no mention of ERCOT, fell 39.4% over the same period. Much of that move belongs to the AI infrastructure trade as a whole.
Who else carries it
Tenants. CoreWeave (CRWV $48.42 -9.90%) is a tenant at Galaxy's Helios campus. Anthropic's S-1/A names New York and Texas as it warns that such actions "could delay or prevent the construction or expansion of facilities on which we depend for compute".
Utilities. CenterPoint (CNP $41.04 -3.50%) expects about 12 GW of Batch Zero load on its Houston system by 2030, more than a 55% increase in its peak load. Its stock fell 3.5% on November 4.
What to watch
- November 5: Core Scientific's call at 13:30 UTC and IREN's call, the first chance for analysts to ask about the election.
- November 6 and 9: TeraWulf and MARA report.
- December 10: ERCOT's reports, which should turn "conditional" into numbers.
- January 19: Hinojosa takes office, with the Legislature meeting the same month.
The same questions work for any company in the table. Add Equibles to ChatGPT or Claude and ask what its latest 10-Q says about ERCOT, then open the filing behind the answer.
How we did this
- Capacity is as each company states it, in its most recent filing or call through November 4. Measures differ: Galaxy's figure is potential capacity that assumes full approval, TeraWulf's is critical IT load, and Cipher's counts only the sites it reports as classified.
- Groups are ours. Galaxy's 4,100 MW beyond the approved 1,630 MW sits in the conditional group, though part of it is expansion capacity, because its slide text doesn't give the split.
- Stock moves are closing prices. Riot and Hut 8 reported on November 4, so those two moves aren't only about Texas.
- Correction, November 5. An earlier version said Hut 8 said the least and counted Beacon Point as having no stated status, because we read its filings but not its November 4 call. The call puts Beacon Point under the audit, so its 1,000 MW moved to the conditional group.
Conclusion
The market sold Texas on November 4, but the filings don't describe one Texas. About a fifth of this capacity is approved or out of the process by the companies' own account, almost half is conditional or still in process, and the rest hasn't been addressed or approved. Until a new order says what it covers, what each company has disclosed is the best guide to its exposure, and the silences are worth as much attention as the statements.
Sources
- Riot Platforms: 10-Q of November 4, 2026, 8-K of November 4, 2026 and the Q3 2026 call.
- Core Scientific: 8-K of September 10, 2026.
- Cipher Digital: 10-Q and 8-K of November 2, 2026.
- Galaxy Digital: 8-K of October 27, 2026, 8-K of August 5, 2026 and 10-Q of August 10, 2026.
- IREN: 10-K and earnings call of August 27, 2026.
- Hut 8: 8-K and 10-Q of November 4, 2026.
- MARA Holdings: 10-Q of August 6, 2026.
- CleanSpark: 10-Q and earnings call of August 6, 2026.
- TeraWulf: 10-Q of August 5, 2026.
- CenterPoint Energy: 8-K of October 27, 2026.
- The Texas Tribune, "Under Hinojosa, Texas data center approvals could stay paused", November 4, 2026.
- Troutman Pepper Locke, "Texas Hits Pause on Data Center Grid Connections Amid Growing Oversight Push", August 4, 2026.
This article is our analysis of public filings and market data. It is not investment advice. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.