Lsb Industries, Inc. (LXU) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Greetings, and welcome to the LSB Industries 3rd Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed in the question queue at any time by pressing star 1 on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star 0. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Christy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer. Christy, please go ahead.

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today are Mark Behrman, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Cheryl McGuire, our Chief Financial Officer, and Damian Renwick, our Chief Commercial Officer. Please note that today's call includes forward-looking statements. These statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations, and projections. They are not guarantees of future performance, and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. For more information about the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected or implied by forward-looking statements, Please see the risk factors set forth in the company's most recent annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. On the call, we will reference non-GAAP results. Please see the press release in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com, and the appendix of the related investor presentation for further information regarding forward-looking statements At this time, I'd like to go ahead and turn the call over to Mark.

Thank you, Christy, and good morning, everyone. Our teams delivered strong third quarter results, supported by strong demand across both our industrial and agricultural businesses, and continued execution across the organization. This translated into significant year-over-year growth in adjusted EBITDA and EPS and reflected the progress we are making in overall reliability, efficiency, and product mix optimization. We are pleased to see these operational improvements increasingly reflected in our financial performance, while we continue to advance several growth initiatives that we believe can drive additional earnings and cash flow over the next several years. Last quarter, we assumed full ownership of our Eldorado carbon capture and sequestration project from Lapis Carbon Solutions. Construction of the carbon capture facility is in full swing, and we continue to work closely with the EPA to secure approval of our Class 6 permit. I'll provide additional details about the project later on in the call. As we look to the final quarter of 2026 and into 2027, we remain focused on continuing to Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone.

Supply constraints stemming from continued geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Black Sea region continue to challenge global nitrogen and energy markets. Over the last three months, European TTF natural gas prices have risen from about $18 to $30 per mm BTU, pushing European ammonia production costs to over $1,000 per metric tonne, well above import parity. In response, European producers are curtailing production and relying more heavily on imports, further tightening already limited global supplies as we head towards winter in the coming months. We estimate that ammonia producers may have either shut down production or reduced production rates to minimum levels, resulting in curtailments of between 20% to 25% or up to 2 million metric tonnes of production. In the US, natural gas remains around $3 per mm BTU, giving us a significant structural cost advantage. Turning to our industrial business, fundamentals remain strong. Infrastructure spending continues to grow, driven by AI-related sectors, electrification, power and grid investment, on-shoring of manufacturing, and continued spending on roads and highways. As a result, copper prices continue to rise, and gold prices remain elevated despite easing from record highs earlier this year. These market fundamentals and resulting strong prices are driving solid mining activity across North America, And a growing pipeline of mining projects advancing as quickly as permitting allows supports robust long-term demand for AN. Producer outages and strong demand continue to support both spot and contract AN pricing. During the third quarter, we used the flexibility of our production assets to prioritise higher margin AN production and sales. We expect to continue favouring AN until sometime in the first half of 2027. Turning to page five, fertiliser market conditions remain firm as global supply conditions continue to evolve. Ongoing supply uncertainty, trade disruptions, and broader macro volatility have kept prices above historical levels, and importantly, demand for our products is strong. Ammonia prices eased during the third quarter, with Tampa settling at $545 per metric tonne for October, reflecting lower phosphate demand amid extremely high sulphur prices. Subject to favourable application weather, we continue to expect a strong fall ammonia season, because ammonia's significant price discount to other products should encourage application. Confirmed sales position our forward order book well through year-end, while preserving flexibility to capture additional volume if prices rise. Global urea prices strengthened by approximately $100 per metric tonne through the third quarter. Volumes from the Middle East remain limited, and while China has increased exports by approximately 4 million metric This has done little to ease the shortage of supply impacting global markets. Strong European import demand is adding further support. We expect this dynamic to continue through Q4. UAM pricing followed higher urea pricing, increasing by $75 per short tonne since early July. The September corn rally improved affordability and encouraged growers to book more forward tonnes and to book earlier than they did last year. This activity drove healthy retailer demand during the quarter. Although we expect the typical lull and fall buying, our order book is well sold through this period, We also expect support for corn prices as the USDA projects 2026-27 record world corn consumption exceeding production. That would push global stocks to use down to about 21% from 23% last year. Stocks at the major exporters are also shrinking, and Europe's drought-damaged crop is down to 48 million tonnes. We believe these conditions will keep US grower economics stable and support healthy nitrogen demand into the 2027 planting season. While the path of the geopolitical conflicts is difficult to predict, we expect elevated European gas costs to persist through the winter, supporting a constructive nitrogen market through at least spring 2027. As a domestic, low-cost supplier to two critical end markets, agriculture and industrial, we will continue to manage our production flexibility to meet demand and capture the best available margins across both. Now I'll turn the call over to Cheryl to discuss our third quarter financial results and our outlook. Cheryl?

Thanks, Damien, and good morning. On page six, you'll see a summary of our third quarter 2026 financial results. Strong demand across our industrial and agricultural businesses combined with higher nitric acid and AN solution production and effective commercial execution drove a 55% increase in adjusted EBITDA compared to the third quarter of last year. As of September 30th, we have generated more than $220 million of adjusted EBITDA on a trailing 12-month basis, which remains an important reference point as we evaluate the earnings power of the business across different market environments and cycles. Page 7 bridges our third quarter 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $40 million to our third quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $62 million. Higher selling prices and lower costs more than offset lower sales volumes, primarily driven by the prior turnaround, which was completed in the third quarter. Part of the lower cost relates to precious metals recoveries received in the quarter, which are a normal part of our operations, although amounts realized can vary based on recovery activities. One other thing worth pointing out is that while we are seeing decreased costs related to our optimization initiatives, SG&A is tracking above 2025 levels, primarily reflecting stock-based compensation relating to a retention arrangement established earlier this year, higher variable compensation, costs associated with the ramp-up of the LIDOS trial preparation, as well as professional fees related to the acquisition of SG&A. Lastly, on page 8, you can see that our balance sheet remains solid. We end at the third quarter with more than $200 million in cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments, and net leverage of approximately 1.1 times. Through the first nine months of 2026, we generated $132 million of operating cash flow. After subtracting $58 million of sustaining capital, we generated approximately $74 million of free cash flow through September 30th. We also invested approximately $31 million in growth-related projects, including approximately $24 million for the acquisition and development of the carbon capture project at our El Dorado facility. Looking ahead to the remainder of 2026, demand remains strong across both our industrial and agricultural businesses. Pricing also remains favorable, with Tampa ammonia settled at $5.45 per metric ton for October, and NOLA UAN currently trading around $390 per ton, while natural gas costs have averaged approximately $3 per MMBTU so far in the fourth quarter. Together, these conditions position us to deliver another strong quarter of earnings and cash flow for our shareholders. And now I'll turn it back over to Mark.

Thank you, Cheryl. Turning to page nine, I'd like to spend a few minutes discussing the progress we've made on our value creation initiatives over the past several years, as well as the opportunities that lie ahead. Coming out of 2023, we announced a focused effort to achieve an additional $55 million of run rate-adjusted EBITDA through increased ammonia production and greater focus on upgrading that ammonia into high-value downstream products, including nitric acid, ammonium nitrate solution, and UAM. We've also been focused on fixed and variable cost optimization, process efficiency, and cost reduction. As a reminder, at the end of 2025, we had achieved approximately $20 million of annual run rate improvement. I'm pleased to report that we expect to add another $15 million of annual EBITDA improvement by the end of 2026. That would bring us to approximately $35 million in cumulative annual run rate improvements against our $55 million target. We expect to capture another $15 to $20 million of annual EBITDA improvement by the end of 2027. In addition to these operational improvements, we continue to make progress in our Carbon Capture and Sequestration, or CCS, project at El Dorado. To quickly recap, our investment in assuming full ownership of the El Dorado CCS project is being made in stages, Tied to key milestones as we focus on project development, permitting, construction, etc. Full ownership of the project provides us with the enhanced commercial flexibility to optimize the use of our CO2 and evaluate future expansion opportunities without limitations. Although the published EPA Underground Injection Control Class 6 Permit Tracker reflects a potential operational date in the second half of 2027, based on our continued engagement with senior officials from the EPA's Region 6 Office, we believe an earlier operational date is possible, depending on the timing of the EPA's completion of its review. When fully operational, we expect to generate between $25 and $30 million of annual earnings, net of any operating costs associated with CCS operations, over the 12-year 45Q credit period. Turning to the potential expansion of our ammonia production capacity at El Dorado, we expect to complete a feed study and move to FID sometime during the second quarter of 2027. Should we decide to move forward, we would look to complete the project alongside the planned 2029 turnaround at the Eldorado site. Once completed, we expect the expansion to add approximately 100,000 tons of annual ammonia production capacity, which we estimate could generate between $20 million and $25 million of incremental annual EBITDA, depending on the ammonia Your pricing market. We expect the total net project cost to be between 105 and 120 million dollars, and we anticipate that this project will be funded with existing cash on our balance sheet. To bring all of this together, we are making meaningful progress towards generating approximately 100 million dollars in cumulative incremental annualized EBITDA from initiatives launched since 2023. We expect to have captured approximately $35 million in annual run rate operational improvements by the end of 2026, with further operational improvements, and our CCS project expected to contribute an additional $40 to $50 million in annual run rate improvement by the end of 2027. Looking further ahead, the potential Eldorado ammonia expansion represents an additional $20 to $25 million of incremental annual EBITDA should we proceed and complete the project in 2029. I'm incredibly proud of the team and their dedication, hard work, and discipline they bring to these efforts every day. The progress we've made is a direct reflection of their commitment to continuous improvement. We're excited about what we've accomplished and, just as importantly, what lies ahead. We have a lot of opportunity. Lastly, our trial against Leidos Engineering began earlier this week and is expected to last three to four weeks. While no outcome is guaranteed, we believe we have a strong case. We will not be commenting further on the case while the trial is underway. Before we open it up for questions, I'd like to mention that Damien and I will be attending the RBC Global Industrials Conference in New York on November 17th. We look forward to speaking with some of you there. That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be happy to answer any of your questions. Thank you.

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star 2 if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up our handset before pressing the star keys. Once again, that's star 1 to be placed in the question queue. Our first question today is coming from Lucas Beaumont from UBS. Your line is now live.

Thanks. Good morning. Yeah, I just wanted to start on kind of the benefits that you've been getting in the AN market with the supply disruptions there. So I guess my prior understanding was that maybe 10% of the volumes were sort of going out at sort of higher sort of spot earnings levels there. I mean, just thinking about, I guess, as the supply disruptions continue through the early or mid part of next year and then sort of start to revert, I was wondering if we could sort of come up with a way to maybe size sort of what the, I guess, the over-earning has been while the supply disruptions have been in place, either, you know, from a pricing point of view on the spot sales versus sort of where contract pricing is, or, I mean, if you're able to size it in terms of EBITDA, just to think about how that kind of rolls off as we sort of move past that. Thanks.

Good morning, Lucas. How are you? Damien, you want to start off with that one?

Yeah, look, Lucas, I think, I mean, directionally the 10% is right. We would expect that to continue on, you know, all the way up until the supply issues are resolved sort of towards the end of first half next year. And, yeah, again, I would just expect it just to continue in line with what we've been doing.

Okay, no worries. And then, I guess, just on the order book for the fourth quarter, so, I mean, there's a fairly sort of wide disconnect at the moment between sort of where pricing's been and where the cost curve is. I mean, I'm expecting that's going to sort of need to move up into the spring, but I guess the timing's sort of a bit uncertain here, and it's a bit uncertain around, I guess, the specific kind of product slates like ammonia versus UIN and so on. So I just kind of wanted to get your view there on sort of where you, I guess, one where you sort of see pricing going relative to the cost curve, and then two, I mean, if we sort of see a move higher, what's kind of locked in in terms of your order book now coming out of a lower price period in the third quarter? So, you know, will we sort of capture some of that uplift into 4Q, or are you going to kind of need to wait for the spring to kind of see more of that if that's how it rolls through? Thanks.

Yeah, we're pretty bullish on where pricing is today and where it's going. I mean, I think you just saw yesterday that Tampa ammonia moved up slightly less than $100, driven by lots of things that are happening globally, on top of, obviously, what's going on in the Middle East. As far as the order book, we're probably 70% or so sold for the fourth quarter, so we do have some upside. And, of course, we're significantly less sold for the first quarter, so we'll have a lot of upside there.

Great, thanks. Also, just the USDA has sort of been reporting the grant issuances recently for a number of projects. I know you guys had sort of submitted to try and sort of get match funding there on the El Dorado projects, but I sort of didn't see that one announced. I'm not clear if I've sort of allocated all of the funding yet, but I just wanted to ask if you had any update on that front. Do you sort of know that, I guess, either you didn't get it or are you kind of still in the mix and it potentially hasn't been announced yet, or what's kind of the latest there?

Yeah, so to be clear, we already have one grant from the old USDA grant program, and so that's roughly around $30 million, And that's for the expansion of ammonia production and de-bottlenecking of the ammonia plant at El Dorado. So that's locked in, and we're already working with USDA, and things go back and forth, and it's a reimbursement on an ongoing basis when we incur costs. As far as I'll call it phase two expansion down at El Dorado, which was to build some new assets, we did submit a project. There was a scoring system. They selected those eight projects for my understanding is the full amount. And yeah, so we're still in conversations with them. I mean, it's entirely possible that one of those eight that were chosen doesn't use all the money, doesn't use any of the money. I mean, you know, there's still things moving around, but, no, we were not initially chosen for that, and it was a bit of a head-scratcher on some of the projects, to be honest.

All right. Thanks very much.

Thank you. Our next question today is coming from Andrew Wong from RBC Capital Market in July. It is now live.

Hey, good morning. So now that you've had the plants running for a few months after the major turnarounds, can you just give us a better sense on where you think nameplate production is today? What's a realistic, normalized level for annual production across the fleet, and what do you think is the upper limit that you could produce at right now?

Oh, well, I think the turnarounds have left us in a really great place. I'll start with El Dorado. So nameplate capacity for the plant when we actually started the plant is 1,150 tons per day. Having said that, we've been running significantly over that for a while, but I would say plus or minus 1,300 tons a day is where we had been before the turnaround. Ammonia plants run at different rates, summer versus winter. Just cooler weather allows them to run at higher rates. Airflow, cooling systems, things like that. So, we came out of the turnaround, and we're running about, you know, between 1350 and 1370, and we think we can run at higher rates in the cooler weather. So, I'm kind of loathe to throw another number out there, but higher than 1370 in the winter. So, again, pretty significant increase after the work that we did during the turnaround, and we're excited about that. At Prior, I think it was less about increase in rate and more about reliability. So that plant runs generally between 675 and 700 tons a day, depending on summer-winter. And we're at those rates, and we're expecting to run more reliably than we have historically. With Cherokee, generally speaking, that plant has run pretty well for a number of years and continues to run at, you know, 520 to 530 on a daily rate basis. So what does that all mean on an annual basis? If we had no turnarounds in a year and we were running full out on our ammonia plants, we're probably 875,000 tons to 900,000 tons a year.

Okay, that's great. That's really helpful. And then, I guess kind of related to that would be your costs, right? Because the better you have on your production, the lower fixed costs per ton, and you have a pretty good quarter. Can you talk about what you would see as sustainable going forward relative to what we saw this quarter?

First, I would say we had a really good quarter. Right, sorry, really good. Sustainable, you're talking about margins, you're talking about production, I didn't quite get that.

Like the, when we look at costs, excluding that gas and other things that, what I consider non, what I consider controllable costs, they look really good this quarter. So how sustainable would you think that number is going forward? I know you don't have a specific number.

Yeah, good morning, Andrew. Let me just jump in on that one for a minute. So a couple of things. Costs are lower in the third quarter. We did build some inventory heading into the fourth quarter, and so, of course, that does take some cost out of the P&L. And then we did have some precious metal Our recoveries, as you know, we use precious metals in our asset process, and we do have pretty standard routine recoveries from time to time. Sometimes they're just higher given the cost of the pricing of precious metals, things like that. But then from a sustainable perspective, look, we're doing a lot of work on our margins right now and how we look at the efficiency of our maintenance organization, our gas efficiency, how we're, you know, handling our product and so we're not, you don't have scrap product, things like that. That's all very sustainable and will continue as we, you know, ramp up our improvements into next year. So I would say if you're looking at the quarter and you take out kind of the inventory build, that's timing, it swings, and some of the precious metals, you're looking at probably half of it being sustainable going forward.

Okay, that's great. That's helpful. And then just one last one for me is on your cash balance, it's pretty large right now. Your cash flow in pretty well. I know you have some expansion projects and things like that that you're looking to do, but there's still a lot of cash that's available. So any thoughts on what you'll do with that? Maybe just hang on to it for now in case something opportunistically comes up.

I think that's probably a good bet that we are looking to grow, and we want to keep some dry powder to see if there are some assets that will come up that fit our portfolio and make sense for us. The other thing that I think we'll start doing, and you're right, I think we're a lot more comfortable that we're cash-generating now and cash-generating fairly well. So I think you'll start to see us execute. We have a stock buyback authorization from the board, and I think that we'll try and be, even if it's small every quarter, be buying some stock back where we think it makes sense and where it's efficient to do that.

Perfect. Thank you.

Thank you. As a reminder, that's star one to be placed into question Q. Our next question is coming from Rob McGuire from Granite Research. Your line is now live.

Good morning.

Good morning, Rob.

What are you seeing in terms of nitric acid demand just from MDI tariffs and countervailing duties? I'm wondering if that is shaping the market at this point to be a stronger market in the U.S. going forward, and anything you can give us color on there?

Yeah, hey, Rob. I think the market's found a good equilibrium. I mean, the duties have been in place for some time now, and the market locally, I think, has increased production up to where it can sustainably run, and we've seen that through our own offtake. So I think, yeah, it's been generally a positive thing. I wouldn't foresee any major changes going forward other than BASF has started the commissioning process for its new facility in Guismar. So I think that's generally good, and that will take nitric acid from the market. So we'll see that growth, but that's been coming for a long time.

Collaborate on the variable that will not be there in 2028 and any other color. I'm curious about the $8 million fixed costs, how you view that in terms of longevity of fixed costs showing up on the waterfall.

Yeah, so a couple of quick things there, Rob. On the variable cost, it's primarily sulfur. We do have a small sulfuric asset business, as you know, so we do buy sulfur. That gets passed along, though, in the selling prices, so net-net, the higher variable costs there are going to be passed along through higher pricing. The other amount that you reference on the bridge, I'll elaborate just a bit more. That's, as I mentioned earlier, related to a couple of different things. One, some precious metals recoveries that we got in the period. We do precious metal recovery pretty routinely. The timing and amounts can vary, though, based on the price of metals and things like that. So we did have some precious metal recoveries. And then in addition to that, we are doing a lot of work around the efficiency of our operations in terms of our maintenance teams, handling of product, scrap product, things like that. So that lowers your cost base overall, and that's part of that $8 million. And I would say it's about 50 percent. We should see that going forward, and that should continue to accelerate as we continue on our optimization path.

Yeah, just to add on to that, I mean, you know, we've discussed this, Rob, on a couple of calls now about the, well, maybe for a while, even longer than that, about the efficiencies and the cost optimization that we're really focused on. And so, you know, I think, you know, we tend to talk about, which makes sense, increased production and lowering our fixed cost per ton. But a lot of that is not just about increasing our production. It's also now focusing on how do we reduce cost and become more efficient as a business as we've now worked to get our reliability and our production up. So we expected a lot of this to be sustainable, and, you know, that's the goal is every year to figure out how we can continue to try and offset inflation and hopefully continue to reduce some costs.

Thank you. And then I was wondering, just with regards to the fall application season, can you discuss just how it's gone so far, how you anticipated finishing up, and any other color on what's going on in the present?

Yeah, look, we're optimistic that as we move into the bigger chunk of fall application, that'll be pretty robust. You know, I think there's a weather watch at the moment. It's been pretty warm and dry in parts, and harvest has been running behind in some parts of the country. So we're watching that, but we still think that the fall period will be pretty much in line with past seasons. We think there's a lot of incentive there for application given where ammonia prices are at. There was a good chunk of purchases when the corn price rallied back in September. But, you know, but admittedly, that has softened a little bit in the last few weeks. But, you know, I think, generally speaking, the growers will be pretty aggressive and look to set themselves up for spring next year.

Thank you so much for answering my questions.

Thank you. Next question is coming from Vitaly Kononov from Freedom Capital Market.

Hi, good morning.

Well, I'd like to ask, what does the turnaround calendar look for 2027?

Yeah, so good morning. For 2027, we have one turnaround set for our Cherokee, Alabama facility, and that will be in September of next year.

And can you just confirm that we lost them? Vitaly, I think your line might be on mute. Are you still connected, sir? Vitaly, would you mind pressing star 1 again for me, please?

If we have lost Vitaly, we have reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over for any further or closing comments.

Great. Well, as always, I appreciate everyone who joined the call and listened in on the call. I'm happy to answer any other questions. As a follow-up, if you have them, feel free to call myself or Cheryl, and thank you, and have a great day.

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect while not at this time, and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.