Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Sheldon Vandercoy, CEO. Sheldon, please go ahead.

Thank you, Kenneth. Good morning, everyone. I'm Sheldon Vandercoy, CEO of TripleFlag. Thank you for joining us to discuss TripleFlag's third quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this morning are Ivan Bari, our Chief Financial Officer, and James Dendel, our Chief Operating Officer. Q3 was another strong quarter of cash flow per share growth per triple flag. Our business delivered 25,000 GEOs in Q3, which keeps us on track to deliver in the top half of our increased guidance range of 100,000 to 110,000 GEOs. Operating cash flow per share is the metric that most directly compounds to shareholders over time. We are pleased to announce Q3 cash flow per share of 45 cents, representing growth of 15% from 39 cents in Q3 of last year. This quarter demonstrates how Triple Flag creates value over time. From our founding, our approach has been to use rigorous due diligence to identify high-quality assets early, often when they are in the hands of junior or mid-cap operators and before the value is obvious. We then benefit as high-quality has surfaced over time. The success of this approach has been demonstrated by our investing track record. We acquired our North Park Stream in 2020. At that time, North Parks was a 7.5 million ton per annum mine operated by CMOC. North Parks was not well known or understood by the market at that time, and the scale of the resource base was not well appreciated. Nadenworth Parks is operated by Evolution with a much higher profile in the market. Evolution is now studying an expansion to 10 to 11 million tons per annum to unlock further value from its large 630 million ton resource base. The potential that we identified in 2020 is now becoming apparent to the market. Another example is our royalty on the Kony mine. We acquired this royalty as part of the Mavericks acquisition in 2023 at a very low value. The market ascribed de minimis value to this Royalty-owned acquisition. KONE forwarded first gold in September ahead of schedule and is on track to achieve commercial production in Q4 this year. This is an asset that will benefit our shareholders for years to come. Another Mavericks asset is our Hope Bay Royalty. When we acquired the Hope Bay Royalty in 2023, the value of that land package was not well appreciated by the market. But we have been tracking that asset for years, and we're very pleased to gain this exposure. Agneco is now constructing Hope Bay and calling for first production in 2030. This is a cornerstone, district-scale royalty that will benefit our shareholders for years to come. Another example is Polo Sur. We acquired our Polo CER Royalty in 2021 for less than $10 million. We liked the large resource that was owned by Antipagasca and the proximity to the Centinella operation. Antipagasca is now evaluating the inclusion of Polo CER oxide material in the near-term mine plan at a Centinella operation in Chile as we anticipated back in 2021. The value is now being surfaced. My final example is our exposure to the Marigold Complex in Nevada. We own two royalties on Buffalo Valley, totaling 3.35%, and a 5% royalty on the Converse property. We acquired our initial interest in Buffalo Valley in 2021. We acquired our initial Converse interest in 2023, each at very low valuations. James will discuss in more detail, but SSR Mining's acquisition of the Converse project. An incorporation of Buffalo Valley and Converse into the Marigold Mine Plan catalyzes the value we identified years ago. And finally, an important part of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders. The strong underlying portfolio performance is not reflected in the market price for our shares, and we've seen clear value in buying back our shares on the market. In Q3, we repurchased a further $20 million of shares during the quarter, on top of the $20 million repurchased in Q2. I will now turn it over to Yvonne to discuss our financial results for Q3, 2026.

Thank you, Sheldon. As Sheldon highlighted, Q3 was another strong quarter, with a portfolio delivering 25,000 GEOs. Revenue of $107 million was up 14% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA of $94 million was up 22%, and most importantly, operating cash flow per share of 45 cents was up 15%. Triple 5 remains focused on top-tier precious metals assets, a revenue that is more than 80% sourced from mining-friendly jurisdictions in both Australia and the Americas. Our revenue mix is strongly diversified, with North Parks and Sierra Linda serving as two largest contributors in Q3 and Ravenswood in its first full quarter of deliveries already at 6%. Triple flag sales mix remains nearly fully derived from precious metals, but two-thirds from gold, and we do not want this to materially change going forward as we exit 2026 and enter 2027. On capital allocation, we view a progressively growing dividend, sustainable across all metal prices, as a core part of our shareholder return strategy, and we have increased our dividend every year since our NPL. On buybacks, we continue to act on the discount value of our shares for purchasing a further $20 million in open market during the quarter. Our NCIB remains an active part of our shareholder return strategy, and we will continue to be opportunistic. Lastly, I'd like to comment on our balance sheet. During the quarter, we received $50 million of drawings on our revolving credit facility, exiting the quarter with $185 million drawn, $20 million worth of cash, and over $1.1 billion of available liquidity. We're on track with our expectation to repay this facility during 2027 with current metal prices. Overall, a strong balance sheet, robust operating cash flows, and total liquidity over $1.1 billion gives us the capital to continue deploying dollars into creative opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to James to walk you through North Parks and the Marigold Complex.

Thanks, Eva. Starting with North Parks, which is both our largest asset and our largest growth asset, four distinct positive developments are underway. First, the E48 sub-level cave is ramping up through 2026 and 2027. Supporting near-term growth. Second, development of the E-22 block cave has commenced. This deposit will be a long-life, low-cost, bulk underground operation, with production expected in 2030. E-22, together with a new decline and upgrades to the material handling infrastructure, will support an underground mining capacity of 11 million tonnes per annum. Representing a greater than 50% increase from the current capacity. Third, the E44 deposit continues to advance, a gold-dominant deposit that was not part of the original mine plan. Minimum guaranteed deliveries to triple flag will commence in 2030 and should increase substantially by 2031 and beyond. A study for this deposit is expected to be completed by the end of June 2027. And fourth, Evolution is advancing a mill expansion study, a 10 to 11 million tonnes per annum, to unlock and accelerate processing a North Park's total resource base of more than 630 million tonnes, including inferred resources. This mill expansion study is also expected to be completed by mid-2027. It's worth remembering where this asset was when we acquired our gold and silver stream in 2020, with a nameplate of 7.5 million tonnes per annum. Investment by evolution as the new operator is now servicing the value of the substantial resource base to direct back to triple flag shareholders. Turning to the Marigold Complex in Nevada, we are exceptionally pleased to see SSR lay out a clear path to production from the Buffalo Valley to Converse for all the assets in our portfolio. On Buffalo Valley, we hold a combined 3.35% NSR, while at Converse, we hold a 5% NSR. Both of these assets will be advanced as extensions of the Marigold Heap Leach Complex in Nevada. which has operated continuously since 1989 and has produced over 5 million ounces of gold. In October, two things happened. SSR published an updated technical report for Marigold, which set out a 20-year life of mine plan with an increased 4.6 million ounce reserve, including a maiden mine plan, Buffalo Valley, and a stand-alone heat bleach. First production from Buffalo Valley is expected in 2029, with reserves of 0.67 million ounces supporting an initial five-year operation. Concurrently, SSR enhanced an all-cash agreement to acquire Roxmore Resources. Its flagship asset is the Converse Gold Project. Converse hosts over 2 million ounces of indicated resource, and 3 million ounces of inferred resource. and is closely located at only six kilometers from the Marigold complex. SSR cited additional growth and conversion potential through future resource development and exploration drilling. Converse will now benefit from SSR's permitting, development, and operating expertise and follows Buffalo Valley and SSR's development sequence of Marigold. First gold is expected in 2033. An annual production of $150,000 to $170,000 of gold over more than 10 years. These are royalties that are required at a very modest valuation and today sit with a proven, long-running Nevada huge-leach complex with a committed senior operator and a published path to production at no incremental cost to the flag. That is free carry optionality of the royalty model that is core to our value proposition, identify quality assets early through rigorous diligence, and allow the value to be progressively served at no additional cost. I will now pass it back to Sean.

Thank you, James. In my opening remarks, I highlighted several examples where Triple Flag identified value early and is now reaping the rewards. This is ultimately reflected in the returns we realize over time. Scotiabank recently published research comparing what companies in our sector paid for their streams and royalties against what those investments are worth today. The results were set out in the slide. At the time we announced our investments, the street described an average IRR of 4.9%. Now, with the benefit of hindsight, Scotiabank describes a realized IRR of 12.8%. This 12.8% IRR leads our peer group, which is a testament to our team's ability to deploy capital to the benefit of TripleFlag shareholders. We achieve this through an exceptionally disciplined process. Our underwriting is built on rigorous technical due diligence, the bedrock of the TripleFlag approach. We identify high-quality assets early to create a Tier 1 portfolio at a reasonable price. And the returns then compound to the benefit of shareholders as that quality and potential is revealed over time. In closing, the triple flag model will not change. Our portfolio is performing very well. We are on track for the top half of our 2026 guidance. Our 2030 outlook of 150,000 to 160,000 GEOs represents peer-leading growth of approximately 50%. Our growth beyond 2030 is meaningful, anchored by North Parks, Hope Bay, Kamesh, and Arthur, all great assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions. Our growth profile now also features Buffalo Valley, Converse, and Polo Sur, assets operated by Tier 1 operators and located in Nevada and Chile. This is exactly the type of royalty exposure that we want to build shareholder value on. Going forward, we will continue to drive growing cash flow per share and growing NAV per share for the benefit of 555 shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you were muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question is from Dalvin Shee with Scotiabank.

Good morning, Sheldon, Nib, and James. Congrats on the quarter, and thank you for taking the questions. First will be GNA, and what would you expect to be the run rate of GNA per quarter? It's a bit lower than we expect, so we just want to know, like, you know, will the Q3 be the reasonable Yeah, thanks.

I'll take that question, though. Our G&A is largely driven by volatility of our share price on stock-based compensation. You would have seen in 2025, as share price increased, our G&A increased at the same time. In 2026, with share price performance, our G&A, we saw a decreasing flat G&A profile. So what we actually can do is predict what our share price will be in Q4. So we left our G&A guidance unchanged. At the same time, we expect G&A to increase that share price performs over the back half of this quarter.

Great. Okay. Thank you. And then the NCIB, like, I believe it's expiring pretty soon, so I assume you renew your NCIB, and would you favor buyback over dividends or one or another right now?

Yeah, I'll take that. Delvin and Sheldon here. Yeah, you can, the NCIB, we've always renewed that, so you can expect that to be renewed kind of in the ordinary course, so no surprises there. And in terms of NCIB versus dividends, I mean, we've been pretty clear, very clear, our dividend increases every year. We just increased it recently, so that's what we do. And then we're much more opportunistic on the NCIB, but you'll see that we've been much more aggressive on NCIB repurchases this year.

Right. Absolutely. Thank you. And turning to Q4, if I back out the number from your viewpoint, lead to high end of guidance versus nine months, so Q4 will be similar to Q3 and the reasonable assumption cost of sales be somewhat lower or similar to this quarter, like Q3.

Can you repeat your question, please?

I'm not sure I followed the question. I think roughly the Q4 application will be like similar to Q3 if I back out the number, like the GEOs.

If you're asking for, it's David on the line, if you're asking for our Q4 geos, I mean, I think our guidance for the year is to be in the midst of the top half of our increased guidance range, so between 105,000 to 110,000 geos, so I would, you know, look to have a forecast within that range for Q4.

Yeah, yeah.

Cost of sales, I think you mentioned. The follow that geo forecast that you're going to assume for that period, noting that a large part of our cost of sales can be impacted by the non-cash component that will fluctuate with the metal price. So it should be tied to your metal price assumptions for that work as well.

Right. Absolutely. Thank you. The last one from me, the dual environment. 100 to 500 mil deals still at primary range, and I assume the predominant will be precious metals focus.

Yeah, I can address those, James. Yes, I mean, there's certainly a decent number of deals in that range. There's also some compelling opportunities that are both, you know, larger and smaller. And it's fair to say that almost all of the transactions we're looking at are either gold or silver. You know, in the past, we've seen opportunities outside gold and silver, but it's very active on the pressure side of the moment.

Right, I see. That's all for me. Thank you so much. Thanks, Dalvin.

Your next question comes from the line of Jack Baxter with Bloomberg Intelligence. Jack, please go ahead.

Good morning, team. If I just start on North Parks, so it appears the capacity upgrades and additional law sources. That you cited in these slides. They're moving closer to reality. I just wanted to get some clarification on which of those catalysts are embedded in the 2030 growth outlook, if any, or perhaps they're post-2030. Can you give any more detail on that, please?

Yeah, Jack, it's James. I can address that. So, you know, evolution's been quite clear with their stated intent for developing new parks. There's an additional capital project, which is not quite as material, but it's related to the process in plants, so it's de-bottlenecking and getting to a million tons and installing coarse particle flotation and regrind. So we are strongly in the view that each of the projects mentioned will go ahead at North Parks, and then, of course, they will have their own timing profile. So, as we mentioned, E22 starting in 2030, then of course, you know, it's ramp up to that. So we reflect all of them, but of course, not all of them are within the 2030 timeline because, you know, material increases in the E22, you know, in the early 2030s.

Understood. Thank you. And on Ravenswood, as we shift into a full quarter of contribution and then towards steady state for production at that asset, what would you regard as a reasonable, normalized run rate for deliveries for triple flag heading into 27?

I mean, Jack, we're not going to provide asset by asset guidance. We never do. And we're also not going to provide 2027 guidance in November 2026. So, you know, the ramp up to, you know, plus 200,000 answers a year will take a couple of years at Ravenswood, which is what we've discussed previously. So we'll reflect that on 2027 guidance when we put it out next year.

Sure, thank you. It's worth a shot. Maybe finally on deals, how are you comparing the prospective return on new streams and royalties against buying back your own stock? Just curious as to whether the hurdle rate on new transactions has moved higher with pricing.

Yeah, hi, Jack. Sheldon, I'll take that. The best use of shareholder capital is always, and it's always driven the most value, is when we find good royalty and streaming opportunities. So we're always looking for that. And I'm really pleased with what we've done this past year. I mean, we deployed $550 million, and we're active on several files. So, you know, we're certainly not sitting on our hands. Last year, we did $350 million, and that was a good year as well. With regards to the buyback, you know, we have the financial capacity to take advantage of that opportunity. And so we come in, of course, when we see just really clear value on where the shares are in the market. So we're not in a situation right now where we have to do either or. And, you know, we're finding good opportunities to deploy capital. And then we're also finding, you know, there's available capital to do some buybacks as well. You know, and this is all in the context of what the cash flow generation is, which is robust, and the debt levels of the company, which are modest.

Okay, so nothing's changed in terms of how you're assessing these deals. You're not chasing a higher IRR. It's all steady goes.

No, we tend to be very consistent in what we do, and that's measured over years, if not the full decade.

Thank you. Thank you very much, Tim. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jeffries. Fahad, please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. On the 2030 guidance, which I know hasn't changed, can you maybe talk about any assets that you think between now and then could provide upside or incremental production that is not captured in that guidance? Thanks.

What I'd say is, this is Sheldon, that 2030 number, we are highly confident in, and there's certainly upside there. I'm actually not going to go asset by asset, but there is certainly, if you go through the public disclosure of all the operators of our portfolio, you get to a figure quite a bit higher than what's in our 2030. The figure that we put out, but that is a number that we just feel very, very confident in. There is certainly upside there, but I'm not going to flag individual assets. And what I want to do is, like, mining projects, it's easier for them to be a little slower than a little quicker, and we just want to have a high degree of credibility with the market that they see that coming on. You know, as one of the other questions alluded to, too, there's a lot of growth in the portfolio even beyond 2030, so our growth profile is really good.

Okay, great. And then just one more for me. In terms of the liquidity that's available, it's quite substantial now, and the balance sheet is in a really good position. Do you anticipate that TripleFlag would participate in some of these larger transactions that are being – I guess expected in the industry, like discussions of maybe a billion dollar royalty or stream one per year for the next five years. You know, these are the types of transaction deal pipelines that some of your larger peers are talking about. Is that something that TripleFlag would look to participate in or is that not the right kind of size? Thanks.

We are looking for any opportunity to drive shareholder value. And, you know, so we would look at larger transactions as well. We're always going to be prudent when we look at leverage levels, but we look at larger transactions as well as mid-sized ones. And the pipeline is very robust. I know our peers are talking about that same pipeline. It's both larger transactions, mid-sized transactions, and smaller transactions. So really, the criteria is what drives value for triple flag.

Okay, great. Thank you so much. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Lawson, please go ahead.

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, Sheldon and team. Great quarter. I understand your reluctance to go asset by asset, sort of off the cuff, but maybe I'll just do that a little bit myself and ask some specific questions about some more important assets. So with North Park, could you just clarify for us what exactly is built into that long-term 2030 assumption in terms of the processing capacity in terms of a million tons per annum?

Yeah, I can address that. And so the capital project set out in the presentation, in addition to the course possible plantation and regrinds, are all included. The big one, though, is, you know, evolution discussed a range of processing scales. Our current working assumption that is reflected in the 2030, if they take it up to the 10 to 11 million ton range. Now, of course, that's, you know, that's been well telegraphed to the market. So that's what's in the 2030 app.

Okay. Thank you very much for that, James. And then just thinking about some of the other assets. So Polo Sur, my understanding is that that probably wouldn't be included in 2030. Can you confirm that, that that would be upside should Antofagasta go ahead and incorporate oxides into the circuit? Yeah, that would be a benefit to us. And then the other asset that I guess I'd be curious about is Prisca. So the upper space is now financed towards production, but the triple flag has the option to exercise the $80 million stream. I mean, what... What you're thinking on that currently, or what are your trigger points to either, you know, move forward with that or decline?

A good question. Thanks, Justin. So I just clarified that Glencore's financing actually provides for not only the development of the upper part of the mine, which is the first project, but also much of the early works on the deeps, which is our main economic interest. Thank you. The Glencore financing is now available to Orion. They're in the process of drawing that and will start the works required to develop the up-levels. Our stream has the right but not obligation to fund the $8 million, and the triggering point on that is upon satisfactory completion of a detailed feasibility study that's appropriately engineered and a capital program that's fully financed, inclusive of our stream. So we'd expect to be making that decision late in 2027 and we'd draw down in 2028 as the current schedule would be provided by Orion, the operator.

Perfect. Thank you. And then just on the M&A pipeline, I think it's It's an interesting discussion point, given your enormous gross margins and the theoretical capability of this business to take on substantial debt in the short term in order to complete larger transactions. Sheldon, I appreciate the comments about wanting to be conservative with the balance sheet, but, I mean, can you give us a range of trailing net leverage multiples with which You know, the company might be comfortable on a short-term basis in order to complete a larger transaction.

Sure, sure, Lawson. I think if you're at two times, EBITDA, you're in a zone of safety there, and I think the market is comfortable with that, and quite frankly, as the cash flow generation of a portfolio like this, that could be fine. And so when you start to run those numbers, that actually allows us to look for, you know, quite large transactions that really move the needle for a company of a triple-flag size and add even more growth to what's already embedded, embedded organic growth into the current portfolio. So again, we'll be looking for ways to add shareholder value. That's really the criteria.

Yes, that's very sensible. And then just one maybe final question on capital allocation. I mean, you've indicated a preference to be, I think, opportunistic with the buyback, but nevertheless, the last three quarters have indicated that a bit of a stable buyback implementation, despite some significant share price volatility. I just want to put a finer point on this. Do you mean to say that the buyback approach could change heading into Q4 and into 2027, or should we expect something in the range of what we've now seen for a couple of quarters?

Really, I'd expect probably steady course as opposed to any change. There's never really been any change to our approach. We just, when we see this location in value and it gets to a certain point, we step in a little bit more aggressively, and we've done that the last couple quarters. Part of it is just the value we're seeing generated by the portfolio organically. Like, we just highlighted a number of projects that are, I think, a little bit below the market's radar screen, and there's real value being created there and being surfaced there.

Yeah, okay, well taken. Thank you guys very much. Thank you, Lawson.

Your next question comes from the line of Fanmin Zhang with Stiefel. Fanmin, please go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the quarter. So I know this might be preliminary, but when you follow the five-year outlook, Hope Baker Mass and E44 are going to come into the window. So how does the update outlook kind of look like in terms of direction and which assets matters most and how comfortable you are on the development timeline of the key assets?

Yes, thanks for the question. As I stated earlier, we are very comfortable with our stated 2030 outlook range. And when we come into February, of course, we'll give 2027 guidance and we'll also update that five-year view. So we'll give a 2031 view. That's a process we're going to go through. Obviously, we'll make sure it's something we're 100% comfortable with. Directionally, it would be higher than what we have for 2030. So again, we'll put out that 2031 outlook in February, and I don't want to start jumping on going asset by asset when the deltas are. But portfolio doesn't stop at 2030. It continues to build.

Great. Thanks for making my question.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Sheldon Vandercoy for closing remarks.

Thank you, Kenneth. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. Have a great rest of your day. Bye.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.