SoFi Technologies (SOFI $16.76 -4.83%) reported Q3 2026 results on October 27, before the market opened. Adjusted net revenue was $1,371.1M, up 44% from a year earlier and 13.7% from Q2. On October 23 we forecast $1,273.7M and a narrow beat, against an analyst consensus that stood at $1,257.2M then and $1,264.4M by October 24.
The beat call held and our number was closer than the Street's, but both were well short. Our forecast was $97.4M under the actual, consensus $106.8M under. The miss on our side has one main cause: we assumed SoFi's loan growth would roughly halve in Q3, and it didn't slow at all. Margins came in where we said they would. Below, we go line by line through the model, then roll it forward to Q4, where the new guidance looks low against the balance sheet SoFi carries into the quarter.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for SOFI:
Our forecast against the results
| Q3 2026, $M unless stated | Our forecast (Oct 23) | Consensus (Oct 24) | Actual | Actual minus our forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue | 1,273.7 | 1,264.4 | 1,371.1 | +97.4 |
| Net interest income | 853.7 | n/a | 929.5 | +75.8 |
| Net interest margin | 5.91% | n/a | 6.14% | +23 bp |
| Lending (adjusted) | 749.2 | n/a | 807.4 | +58.2 |
| of which Lending net interest income | 622.2 | n/a | 670.2 | +48.0 |
| Financial Services | 493.5 | n/a | 525.1 | +31.6 |
| Technology Platform | 88.0 | n/a | 87.4 | -0.6 |
| Corporate/Other | -57.0 | n/a | -48.7 | +8.3 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 433.1 | n/a | 469.8 | +36.7 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 34.0% | n/a | 34.3% | +0.3 pts |
| EPS | $0.16 | $0.168 | $0.18 | +$0.02 |
Consensus is the mean of 19 analysts for revenue and 9 for EPS, as of October 24. The figure in our preview, $1,257.2M from 18 analysts on October 21, missed by $113.9M. Both EPS figures are diluted: SoFi's GAAP and adjusted EPS were each $0.18 this quarter.
By the standard we set before the report, the call counts as right: we called a beat, revenue beat, and our forecast was closer to the actual than consensus was. Getting the direction right is a long way from getting the number right, though, and a $97.4M miss on a $1.37B quarter is not small. Here is where it came from.
Where the $97.4M went
Lending net interest income, +$48.0M. This was our biggest error, and it came from one input. SoFi added $5.8B of loans in Q2, and we assumed about $2.6B in Q3, deliberately below the trend. Instead loans grew by $5.8B again, to $53.7B: $34.0B held for sale, $18.5B held for investment at fair value and $1.2B at amortized cost. Originations hit a record $16.9B, against $14.8B in Q2, including about $3.8B originated for outside buyers through the Loan Platform Business. Lending net interest income rose to $670.2M from $573.3M.
Financial Services, +$31.6M. Deposits grew $5.8B to $51.3B, and both halves of the segment beat us: net interest income was $281.3M against our $266.5M, and fees $243.8M against $227.0M. Deposit costs didn't squeeze the margin the way we expected. Consolidated net interest margin rose 16 basis points to 6.14%, where we had expected a 7 basis point decline. SoFi says the average rate it paid on deposits was 145 basis points below its warehouse funding rate.
Lending fees, marks and write-offs, +$10.1M. This is the line we worried about most, and the worry was partly right. SoFi says the discount rate on its personal loans rose with a 76 basis point increase in benchmark rates, and the book's premium over par fell to 3.3% from 4.7%. The release doesn't break out the hedge result; the 10-Q will. Origination fees made up the difference: $270.9M, against $198.5M in Q2 and our $210.0M, so Lending's adjusted noninterest revenue held at $137.1M, against $138.4M in Q2.
Technology Platform, -$0.6M, and Corporate/Other, +$8.3M. Technology Platform revenue of $87.4M was almost exactly our $88.0M, and its accounts fell 11% from a year earlier to 140M. The Corporate/Other loss shrank to $48.7M.
What the model got right
- The margin ramp. We said earnings were the real test and forecast a 34% adjusted EBITDA margin, against 29.7% in Q2, when consensus EPS needed about 34.4%. The actual was 34.3%. Profit grew faster than revenue: EBITDA rose 70% from a year earlier on 44% revenue growth.
- The method. We started from the June 30 balance sheet rather than from consensus, and that put us above consensus and on the right side of the beat. The balance sheet was bigger than anyone modeled because it kept growing during the quarter.
- The guidance raise. We forecast full-year revenue of $4.89B, above the old $4.75B to $4.85B range, and said the Street expected a raise. SoFi raised to $5.04B.
- Technology Platform, within 1%.
What it got wrong: loan growth, which we cut in half; the direction of the net interest margin; and EPS, where the $0.168 consensus was closer to $0.18 than our $0.16. Our EPS came straight from our revenue, so the revenue miss carried into it.
What changes for Q4
SoFi now guides 2026 to $5.04B of adjusted net revenue, $1.66B of adjusted EBITDA, $840.0M of net income and $0.61 of EPS. After nine months of $3,663.9M, $1,167.5M and $0.41, that leaves for Q4:
| Q4 2026 | Our October 23 forecast | Consensus (Oct 24) | Implied by new guidance | Our updated forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adjusted net revenue ($M) | 1,324.5 | 1,320.4 | 1,376.1 | 1,394.1 |
| Adjusted EBITDA ($M) | 490.1 | n/a | 492.5 | about 495 |
| Adjusted EBITDA margin | 37.0% | n/a | 35.8% | about 35.5% |
| EPS | $0.19 | $0.191 | $0.20 | $0.19 to $0.20 |
The guidance implies revenue growth of 0.4% over Q3, after 13.7% in Q3 and 10.9% in Q2. We think that is low, for the same reason Q3 surprised. The balance sheet SoFi starts Q4 with already earns more than Q3 did:
- Loans, securities and cash were $61.5B at September 30: $53.7B of loans, $5.0B of securities and $2.8B of cash, leaving out restricted cash.
- At Q3's 6.14% margin for a 92-day quarter, that earns about $952.5M of net interest income, $23.0M more than Q3, with no new loans at all.
- Fees and other noninterest revenue were $441.7M of Q3's adjusted net revenue. Holding them flat gives $1,394.1M, 1.3% above the implied guide.
That is a conservative base: it assumes a balance sheet that stops growing after two quarters of $5.8B growth each. The guide would be right if SoFi sells much more of its held-for-sale book, if a later rate move squeezes the margin, or if loan marks fall again without fees to offset them. Our updated full-year forecast is $5.06B.
SoFi also gave its first 2027 outlook: about $6.4B of adjusted net revenue, $2.24B of adjusted EBITDA, $1.28B of net income and $0.90 of EPS, against pre-report consensus of $6.14B of revenue and $0.82 of EPS. The outlook is about 27% revenue growth, slower than this year's 40%.
What management said
“We had exceptional Q3 results against the backdrop of any environment, but they are even more remarkable given how 2026 has unfolded.”
Anthony Noto, CEO, Q3 2026 earnings release
“Our focus is simple. We are adding more members, who are using more products, and generating more revenue per product to create the most value for our shareholders over the long run.”
Anthony Noto, CEO, Q3 2026 earnings release
The member numbers back that up: 17.1M members, up 35% from a year earlier with a record 1.2M added in the quarter, and 26.7M products, up 44%, with a record 2.2M added. Fee-based revenue was $570.6M, 42% of the total and up 21% from Q2. Tangible book value rose to $7.48 a share from $7.34 at June 30.
Credit stayed calm. The personal loan annualized net charge-off rate was 2.26%, down 34 basis points from a year earlier, and SoFi estimates about 3.4% excluding late-stage delinquent loan sales, a 30 basis point improvement from Q2.
What we'll watch next
- The 10-Q, for the split between loan marks and hedges that the release leaves out, and for how much of the $34.0B held-for-sale book SoFi plans to sell.
- Q4 loan growth. Two quarters of $5.8B growth funded by deposits is the pattern our model underweighted; a third would put Q4 well above the guide.
- The net interest margin against 6.14%, now that deposits fund 90% of SoFi's average liabilities.
- Personal loan marks against 103.3% of par, if rates keep rising.
Sources
- Q3 2026 results, guidance and 2027 outlook: 8-K filed October 27, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000065)
- Q2 2026 quarterly report, June 30 balance sheet: 10-Q filed August 6, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000054)
- Q2 2026 results: 8-K filed July 29, 2026 (accession 0001818874-26-000050)
- Our forecast: SoFi Technologies (SOFI) Q3 2026 Earnings Preview and Forecast, October 23, 2026
- Analyst consensus: Equibles, as of October 24, 2026
- Updated forecast: Equibles Research model, October 27, 2026
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.