Good morning and welcome to Banzel's 2026 first half results presentation. I appreciate you joining us today. I will start by summarizing our performance over the period. Following this, Richard Hiles, our Chief Financial Officer, will take you to our financial results, capital allocation and outlook for 2026. After that, I will return to provide an update on North America distribution and continental Europe, as well as discuss why Banzel is well positioned for continued long-term growth. I'm pleased to be presenting a good set of results today with the actions we have taken over the last 18 months delivering a much improved performance and supported by the business ability to respond effectively in an inflationary environment. Over the first half, volume growth was particularly encouraging with growth delivered in all business areas, but led by growth in our North America distribution business. The stabilization and recovery of the distribution business follows from actions taken to restore responsiveness, agility, and high service levels. While there's still work to do, these are having a positive effect. I'm also pleased with how our businesses globally have successfully navigated product and operating cost increases resulting from the geopolitical environment. This agility is core to Bansal's fundamental resilience. Furthermore, Bansal's strong and annual cash generation continues to support attractive capital allocation opportunities. While we have an active pipeline of bold-on acquisitions, and deal momentum is building, our improved performance, alongside the level of excess cash we see, allows us to announce a £500m share buyback today, while maintaining headroom for acquisitions. Overall, Banzel's performance over the first half is a testament to both the strength of the business model and the dedication of our people who have been able to deliver good growth in what remains a challenging external backdrop. I believe Bonsal can now deliver on the attributes it has long been known for, attractive compounding growth and resilience, and I expect 2026 to be the foundation for future profit growth. Turning to the financial highlights over the period. Revenue growth at constant currency was 4.1% in the first half, driven by underlying revenue growth of 3.2%. Pleasingly, we have now delivered five consecutive quarters of underlying revenue growth. Operating margin increased by 30 basis points to 7.3%. Whilst this is largely driven by the net impact of inflation in the second quarter, much of which is temporally in nature, we have also benefited from the annualization of initial NISBIT synergies, the stabilization of our distribution business, and have delivered results despite some increased variable operating costs. Adjusted operating profit growth was 8% year-on-year. Bonzo's performance in the first half has led to an upgrade of our 2026 outlook. We now expect broadly flat operating margins year-on-year and modest growth in adjusted operating profit. Pre-cash flow rose by 6% with cash conversion of 90% and leverage was 1.8 times which is below our target range. We have announced an interim dividend which is 3% higher than the prior period and completed two acquisitions year-to-date. With deal momentum building, we continue to expect higher annual acquisitions spent in 2026 compared to 2025. And lastly, as I've already mentioned, we have announced a new share buyback in line with our capital allocation policy. Importantly, this maintains significant headroom for continued bolt-on acquisitions, which remain our priority given the strong returns they achieve. With that, I will hand over to Richard.
Thank you, Frank, and good morning, everyone. As usual, my comments are at constant exchange rates unless otherwise stated. In addition, within our results, you will see adjustments for refunds we received related to US IEPA tariffs paid in 2025. while the position will become clearer in the second half our view is that this cash will be paid back to customers in accordance with accounting standards this reduced our statutory reported revenue by 1.2 percent effectively offsetting an implied revenue benefit in prior periods a correspondent corresponding reduction in cost of sales means there is no impact to adjusted operating profit. And throughout, we state operating margin and gross margins excluding this impact. Starting with revenue. Group revenue increased by 4.1% in the first half of 2026, excluding the tariff refund. We delivered underlying revenue growth of 3.2%, with approximately two-thirds of this being driven by volume growth, and one-third from selling price increases. We saw growth in all business areas led by North America. Both volume growth and inflation accelerated in the second quarter, driving total underlying revenue growth of 4.3% in Q2, compared to 2% in Q1. Acquisitions, net of disposals, and the hyperinflation impact contributed 0.9% to revenue growth. U.S. tariff refunds impacted revenue by 1.2%. Now turning to the income statement. Gross margin was 29.4% compared to 28.8% in the prior period, driven by the profit impact from turning inventory in an inflationary environment as well as currency. Much of the inventory impact is expected to be temporary in nature. Gross margin expanded in all of our business areas except for North America, which saw a moderate decline driven by business mix. Operating cost growth over the period included the impact of fuel and freight inflation and some meaningful variable costs linked to improved profit performance, particularly in North America. overall the cost operating cost to sales ratio increased from 21.8 percent to 22 percent at actual currency adjusted operating profit for the year was 441 million pounds an increase of eight percent from the prior year operating margin was 7.3 percent compared to seven percent in the prior period this was largely driven by the net impact of inflation as well as the annualization of Nisbet synergies. Moving down the P&L, adjusted net finance expense of £60 million and a tax rate of 26% are both consistent with our four-year guidance. Adjusted earnings per share increased by 11% over the period, further supported by the timing of share buybacks in 2025. After a few years of deflation and market price normalisations, we thought it would be helpful to provide some colour on the inflation trends we are seeing. We started to put through price increases in certain product categories like disposable gloves in the second quarter as product costs increased due to the geopolitical backdrop. The impact of higher selling prices in the second quarter benefited our top line but also our operating margin given the positive impact of selling through previously purchased inventory at lower cost. The cost of plastics, which accounts for around 30% of our purchases, has increased meaningfully and drives the overall impact seen to date. However, we are already starting to see selling prices reduced from peak prices in certain categories and are expecting to see more in Q3. Paper accounts for another 25% of our purchases but we saw limited change in pulp and paper prices in the first half. When it comes to operating costs, wages and property cost inflation have been at more typical levels across our businesses. However, we have seen increased fuel and freight costs, some of which has been passed on through surcharges. As usual, we'll continue to look to offset operating cost inflation through ongoing efficiencies where possible. Turning now to the business areas. In North America, we saw underlying revenue growth of 4.6%, supported by both volume and inflation, although the inflation benefit was partially offset by reduction in US tariff rates. Revenue growth was led by a recovery in our distribution business, which saw strong growth driven by new business wins in Q4 2025. Encouragingly, we also saw good growth in our food service redistribution business, supported by both volume and inflation. Strong growth in our safety businesses was largely supported by inflation. Operating profits were flat as the net benefits of higher inflation were offset by business mix, particularly the growth in lower margin grocery, as well as higher variable costs relating to the improved profit performance. And there were continued end market challenges in our retail, Mexico and convenience store businesses. Nonetheless, margins did increase in our distribution business. Return on average operating capital declined with the stronger profit performance in the second half of 2024, supportive of the prior year metric, and with an investment in working capital. In Continental Europe, underlying revenue growth was just over 2% and accelerated through the period, driven by improved volumes across most countries and higher selling prices, which also supported a strong increase in gross margin. Inflation was most prevalent in Turkey, where we sell disposable gloves, as well as in some of our online businesses and in Spain. Spain saw very strong revenue growth, also supported by acquisitions, and the performance within our online businesses continued to improve. France delivered some volume growth, which was partially offset by selling price deflation, which has been moderating. Our largest business in cleaning and hygiene completed its warehouse consolidations, offsetting operating cost inflation to drive a strong improvement in operating profit. The increase in operating margin was driven by the positive net inflation impact. Higher working capital offset the business area's higher margin, resulting in a broadly stable return on average operating capital. The UK and Ireland delivered slight underlying revenue growth, mostly driven by volume, with price increases only seen towards the end of the second quarter. Both gross margin and operating margins were higher in the period. Growth was driven by food service, cleaning, hygiene and our businesses in Ireland, with a partial offset from a decline in safety due to the completion of some larger infrastructure projects. adjusted operating profit increased 9% and strong operating margin expansion was driven by the annualisation of Nisbet synergies and a one-off property related gain despite overhead inflation the increase in operating margin also translated into a strong increase in the UK and Ireland's return on average operating capital then finally in the rest of the world acquisitions were the main driver of a 5% increase in constant currency revenues, with underlying revenue also contributing almost 2%. Underlying revenue growth was driven by Asia Pacific, particularly our healthcare businesses, although within this, our operations in New Zealand have been impacted by reduced public healthcare spending. While Brazil benefited from inflation in certain categories, which supported moderating deflation overall, there was more limited inflation impact in Asia-Pacific. The rest of the world's operating profit grew by just over 15% as gross and operating margins increased strongly, particularly in Brazil. This offset a healthcare-related margin decline in Asia-Pacific. The higher adjusted operating profit drove an increase in return on average operating capital. This slide provides an overview of our performance across sectors in the first half. Overall, we delivered modest organic revenue growth across safety, clean hygiene, and healthcare, driven by strong growth across our Asia-Pacific healthcare businesses, as well as higher inflation in North America. Growth in food service and grocery were both driven by the strong performance of our North American distribution business. Within distribution, groceries saw strong volume growth driven by new customer wins in the second half of 2025, as well as good growth at some of its largest grocery customers. Moving on to cash flow. We generated £328 billion of free cash flow in the period, which includes an inflow of £71 million pounds related to tariff refunds. Excluding this inflow, cash conversion was 90%, slightly lower than usual due to an investment in working capital, but in line with our target. And free cash flow increased 5.6% year-on-year, driven by higher adjusted operating profit and lower net interest paid. Inclusive of the tariff refund, total cash generation prior to acquisitions, disposals, and share buybacks was £268 million. £26 million was spent on net acquisitions, resulting in a net cash inflow of £242 million. Turning to the balance sheet and actual exchange rates, with comparisons made to the position at the end of 2025, working capital was largely unchanged overall, with an increase in payables, which includes the U.S. tariff refunds, partially offset by an increase in receivables and slightly higher inventory. Deferred consideration relating to acquisitions decreased by £12 million to £213 million, driven by earn-out payments related to previous acquisitions. There was an increase of £164 million in other net liabilities, which primarily relates to our final dividend, which was paid in July. Our adjusted net debt to EBITDA was 1.8 times, excluding the cash inflow related to the tariff refund. Over the medium term, we aim on average to manage leverage within our target range of two to two and a half times adjusted net debt to EBITDA. Before the pandemic, we consistently operated within this range. Returns were slightly higher in the first half, driven by a higher operating margin, with return on invested capital of 13.3% and a return on average operating capital of 38%. Our capital allocation priorities remain unchanged. To invest in the business to support organic growth and operational efficiencies. To pay a progressive dividend. To invest in value accretive bolt-on acquisitions, and finally, to distribute excess cash. In the 21 years up to and including the first half of 2026, Boswell has returned £2.7 billion through dividends, committed £6.2 billion in acquisitions, and returned £450 million through share buybacks. When we are deciding where to deploy capital, we have a strong focus on the return on invested capital, and the relative value creation of different opportunities. As a result, we have a strong preference to prioritise capital, to invest in our own business, and in Bolton acquisitions. Acquisitions represent a significant opportunity for Bunzel, as we operate in large and fragmented markets, and we have a very strong track record of consolidating the market. Of the 77 announced acquisitions between 2020 and 2025, 74 were bolt-on acquisitions, where committed spend per deal averaged around £25 million. Over this period, we spent an average of £300 million per annum on bolt-ons. The average multiple that we have paid for these businesses has been consistently around eight times operating profit. recent deals have demonstrated a strong two-year return on invested capital of 13.3 percent comfortably ahead of our project whack we have over 1300 potential acquisition targets identified across countries and customer end markets but the timing of deals can be uncertain periods of lower acquisition spend are not unusual and annual spend varies In 2019, we spent just over £100 million on Bolton acquisitions, whilst in 2023, we spent nearly £500 million. Our pipeline is active and we continue to expect committed spend to be more in 2026 than 2025. With current leverage of 1.8 times and strong annual cash flow, we have significant Henry. This is supported by the fact we have spent less than £150 million on acquisitions over the last 20 months, compared to a typical spend of around £600 million over a two-year period. On this high-level illustration, we have headroom of 0.15 to 1 times net debt to EBITDA. Every 100 million pounds allocated to Bolton acquisitions initially impacts leverage by a little under 0.1 times. We therefore have a level of excess cash that supports a 500 million pound share buyback over the next 12 months without compromising our pursuit of Bolton acquisitions and the increasing acquisition momentum we are seeing. As part of our capital allocation framework, we commit to a progressive dividend policy and have delivered dividend per share CAGR of circa 9% since 1992. Today, we have announced an increase of 3% in our interim dividend. Our expected dividend cover for 2026 is 2.4 times in line with last year. Looking ahead to the full year, we upgrade our 2026 guidance. We continue to expect revenue growth at constant exchange rates, excluding U.S. tariff refunds, to be driven by modest underlying growth, supported by some inflation alongside a small benefit from acquisitions. We now expect group operating margin to be broadly flat year-on-year, compared to the 7.6% margin reported in 2025, which excluded the £8 million share-based payment credit. This is due to stronger than expected profitability in H1, which was driven by the net impact of inflation, much of which is expected to be temporary. Overall, we expect modest growth in adjusted operating profit. Within this, there are a few things to remember when considering our expectations for the second half. Comparatives get tougher. You will remember that we had significant business wins towards the end of last year, which we'll annualise. We are already starting to see some selling price normalisation, with this expected to be a margin drag for the group. Gross margin peaked in June, with July already declining from that level, and with price reductions in certain categories building since July. In addition, the second half will also continue to be impacted by an increase in variable operating costs linked to improved profit performance. Tax guidance is unchanged at 26%, while net interest is expected to be between £125 and £130 million. pounds. I will now hand back to Frank to take you through our business update.
Thank you, Richard. Firstly, let me give you an update on North America. As part of this, we thought it would be helpful to provide you with some updated disclosure, including our end customer revenue split. Although, as a reminder, our operating companies operate across customer sectors and so our businesses are not run simply in our accordance with the chart here. As you can see, distribution accounts for around 60% of North America revenues. Therefore, a now stabilized distribution business is very important for the resilience of North America and the group. Within distribution, approximately half of its revenues are generated from grocery customers, with another quarter coming from food service redistribution. The remainder is made up of customers across retail, food processor, and cleaning and hygiene. The other 40% of North America is diversified across many sectors. This diverse sector mix supports the resilience of North America and the group. North America's largest 40 customers are mostly distribution customers and have an average partnership with Bonsal of over 20 years. Customers are very sticky in our industry and we enjoy very high retention rates, in general given the essential nature of our products and services. While North America has a more concentrated customer base than other parts of the group, Its top three customers account for less than 25% of revenue, with this weighted to our largest customer. And customers four to ten account for less than 15% of revenue. There is then a very long tail of smaller customers. In terms of financials, margins vary across businesses, but those with lower margins tend to have higher inventory turns, And as a result, return on average operating capital is broadly similar and attractive across sectors. Focusing now specifically on our North America distribution business, where we have continued to make strong operational progress. I've spent a lot of time in this business and the actions we have taken have significantly improved execution within our new organizational structure. The new sales and operations model, which enables a much greater focus on long-term growth opportunities, now has the right processes in place to enable effective servicing of both local and national customers. The model is working well. As part of actions taken, we have reinforced our leadership structure within local food service and that has brought greater focus in that sector. Importantly, agility has now been restored in the local business, with local teams responsible for pricing and inventory decisions for local customers as well as for local sourcing decisions. As a result, our availability and commercial responsiveness are now back at our desired levels, as are our service levels, with on-time in full now back to 2019 levels. Our sales teams are motivated and engaged, and collaboration between teams has noticeably improved. Staff turnover, which we believe has always been well below industry averages, but increased in 2025, has fallen meaningfully over the last 12 months. And finally, we have strengthened our relationship with customers and our engagement with third-party suppliers. This has included a more balanced approach to own brand that also focuses on growth we can achieve with preferred branded suppliers. For example, on the bottom right is a recent promotional program we ran for hygiene products alongside multiple branded suppliers. Customers are also noticing these improvements as highlighted by the quote in the top right of the page. The operational improvements outlined on the previous slide are now visible in Distribution's improved financial performance. Distribution delivered 8% underlying revenue growth in the first half. This was mostly driven by volume growth, including the new business wins in the fourth quarter of last year and success with established grocery partnerships. In the second quarter, volumes grew by 2% in our redistribution segment with service customers. This is an encouraging performance given continued market challenges for customers in that particular segment. Inflation was also positive in the period for distribution. The business saw a moderate increase in operating margin, outperforming North America as a whole. The improved performance of the business, alongside the net positive impact from inflation, more than offset the mixed headwind from strong growth in grocery, new business wins that are typically lower margin initially, and higher variable cost as a result of the improved performance. While the end markets remain challenging, we are now in a good position from which we can focus on increasing market share through new customer wins and increased wallet share. Near-term priorities for the business also include hiring a new CEO of distribution and opening two mixing centers on the East and West Coast which will hold imported products for our distribution centers. This will improve product availability across the business enhance warehouse productivity, and create commercial opportunities with customers. The actions we have taken and continue to take will strengthen our distribution business and provide it with a strong platform to deliver sustainable long-term growth. Turning to continental Europe. A significant warehouse consolidation project is now fully operational in our largest French business, where we have gone from 15 to 6 warehouses. This has been a large undertaking by the team and it will make a big difference to our operational efficiency, improving product availability and delivery time for our customers. We are already benefiting from some tangible improvements with higher service levels, lower inventory, increased warehouse capacity, as well as improved health and safety. There will be further productivity improvements as we fully roll out a number of digital tools, including warehouse management systems and demand management planning. Whilst this was a bigger project, warehouse consolidations are a key lever for operating efficiencies across the group, and we are always looking for these types of incremental opportunities. We have also entered into an exciting partnership with Adidas, which is a great example of the group's entrepreneurial culture and continued focus on driving organic growth. This focus achieves net new business wins worth around €30 million of annualized revenue in the first half in Europe overall. The Adidas partnership is a global, exclusive license agreement for the design, manufacturing, and distribution of safety footwear. The initial launch is in a number of European countries across different businesses. The partnership is testament to our safety expertise and global network of safety distribution businesses. These benefits were recognized by Adidas, an instrumental in them choosing to partner with Bunzel to introduce Adidas workwear shoes. Looking forward, there is a significant growth potential as we look to expand the product range, the product categories, and the number of geographical markets. Turning to our long-term growth model, Wansel is fully focused on delivering against its well-established compounding growth strategy, and a good first-half performance reaffirms our expectation that 2026 will be the foundation for future profit growth. I therefore want to take a moment to briefly remind you of its building blocks. Firstly, Bonzo's growth opportunity is supported by its underlying resilience. This resilience is driven by the geographic and sector diversification of our 150 businesses and their focus on essential products. The group benefits further from its scale, strong cash generation, and its entrepreneurial culture. These fundamentals underpin our growth strategy, which is founded on profitable organic growth and disciplined value-creative acquisitions. We also continue to drive ongoing operational efficiencies and, where appropriate, distribute additional returns of capital. Bunzel has a strong total return model. Part of the group's resilience stems from its geographic and sector diversification. We provide you with an updated snapshot on this slide. This resilience in part reflects the fact that grocery and food service revenues are relatively similar in scale and tend to have opposing trends. When people eat out more, they eat at home less, and vice versa. Furthermore, around half a group's profit is now generated from the three sectors that we see the greatest growth opportunity, and that have the highest operating margins. Safety, healthcare, and cleaning and hygiene. However, it is important to remember that while these six sectors have different margin profiles, their return on capital employed are all attractive and broadly similar. Those with lower margins tend to have higher inventory turn. All are highly cash generative. Organic growth remains a key focus for all of our businesses. We drive volume growth through exposure to grown customers, increased share of wallet with existing customers, and through winning new customers. These factors all contributed to our volume growth in the first half. Across our diversified operations, activity in our end markets is important. Therefore, on average, we expect group volume growth to be driven by real GDP in our markets. We drive price growth to offset inflation and we have shown that we are very good at navigating volatile trading conditions while also focusing on long-term customer relationship. We also target ongoing operating efficiencies where small incremental improvements compound significantly over time and support our management of cost inflation. We completed 15 warehouse consolidations and relocations in the first half of 2026, a larger number than we would typically expect over six months. And in the first half, 78% of our orders were processed digitally. This compares to 76% across 2025. As we implement new systems to improve productivity, artificial intelligence is playing an ever-increasing role. Our entrepreneurial and data-driven culture lends itself well to adopting new technology and AI is becoming embedded into everyday sales, operations and support processes. On top of organic growth, Bonsal has an excellent long-term track record of delivering growth through acquisitions. In large and very fragmented markets, Bonsal is one of very few scale players and a natural consolidator. The sticky nature of customers in this industry makes bold-on acquisitions at attractive valuations a compelling growth lever. Having done over 230 acquisitions since 2004, we have very strong acquisition capabilities and processes across the organization. Central expertise alongside local market knowledge reduces the execution risk of acquiring businesses. We are also an attractive acquirer for potential targets, a long-term home for businesses, with benefits from our scale, investments made for the benefit of all our businesses, knowledge-sharing opportunities, and our entrepreneurial culture. And as Richard demonstrated earlier, hold-on acquisitions are highly value-accreative. Between 2021 and 2025, hold-on acquisitions contributed on average annual revenue growth of 2.6%. We also actively recycle capital, including four disposals, since 2022. In summary, Bunzel has delivered a good performance in the first half of 2026 with broad-based volume growth led by North America distribution, effective management of inflation, and strong profit growth. In particular, the period reflects a turning point for our distribution business. The group has also continued to demonstrate the strength of its resilient business model in an uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical environment. Overall, I am pleased that we can now guide to modest profit growth for 2026 and look forward to this year being the foundation for future profit growth and a return to Bonsal's successful compounding growth algorithm. thank you for your attention we are now happy to take your questions thank you to ask a question please press star four by one on your telephone keypad now if you change your mind please press star four by two when preparing to ask your question please ensure your device is unmuted locally we'll pause here briefly as questions are being registered our first question today
Operator
comes from Zach Alcoa-UT from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.
Good morning, Frank, Richard. I have two questions, please. Firstly, could you please unpack the moving parts for the operating margin in the second half, i.e. what is embedded in your full year guidance? For example, how is gross margin developing so far and how do you assume that that will evolve over the remainder of the year? And then similarly, your assumptions around OPEX. And then the second question on M&A in the context of still a lower deal spend relative to history. How has the M&A landscape evolved? I appreciate you called out unexpected acceleration in the second half. So should that signal to us that the landscape has improved recently, or is it driven more by the timing of you getting certain deals over the line? Thank you very much.
Let me take the operating margin one to begin with. um so we are when we when we look at the first half margins have improved 30 basis points which has been largely benefited from the inflation effect on the inventory gain net of fuel and freight increases if we take those out actually margins are still slightly up in the first half but the effect is largely down to the inflation inventory gain when we look into the second half we are expecting margins to be lower year on year um the the extent is essentially the same as we talked about at the pre-closed statement back in june the factors and the parts of the bridge i mean firstly we do expect to see this inventory gain unwind um we have already seen gross margins peak in june and reduce in july we're effectively also seeing selling prices reduce alongside that. The first half also benefits from Nisbet synergies, which analyzed in the first half and therefore will not repeat in H2. Obviously, we've got the new business wins, which we achieved in Q4 last year, which will analyze in the second half. And we'll continue to see ongoing higher variable costs linked to profit performance. Those together together explain the reason why margins in the second half will be down year on year as opposed to up in the first?
Let me take the M&A question. Obviously, we are operating in large fragmented markets. We have about 1,300 targets in our database. We are the largest business in our field that consolidate these markets. Let's say sometimes uncertainty in markets can, you know, make people wait in selling their businesses. We certainly have seen that effect in the last 18 months. I would say the magic word in an acquisition strategy, a bonzole follows, is discipline. We want to do the right things. We see an active pipeline, so we feel good about that. But I also say, you know, we always say champagne at the finish. You know, I'm not getting worried if we are not able to close an acquisition in December and it ends up to be January. We want to do the right things. We've seen years where we did 100 million on acquisitions, bolt-ons. We've seen years of 500 million. So these things can be a bit lumpy, but I'm building this group for the long term. we have a massive opportunity our overall market shares are still relatively low in most markets but we are leading and i feel good about that so um you know i hope that answers your question yeah very clear thank you both thank you the next question is from rory mckenzie from ubs your line is now open.
Manuel, it's Rory here. Thanks so much for taking my questions. Firstly, I just wanted to clarify the modelling of the tariff refunds. Is it effectively removing £70 million of revenues at a 0% operating margin? And then on what basis are you now guiding for FY or full year margins? In the presentation, you throughout referred to a 7.3% margin in H1, but technically it's a 7.4% margin. So how does that accounting change fit into the changed margin guidance language, please? And then secondly, I had two questions about the inflation tailwinds. Just to follow up on that point you made on the guidance, Richard, if we attribute all of the 60 BIPs gross margin improvement to that inventory gain, then that's about a £35 million gross benefit in H1. Why would that necessarily all reverse in H2? I'm just not clear why it would be symmetrical, as I don't think prices have quite fallen in the same pattern as they rose. And then finally, Frank, can you just talk about how you've seen customers respond to the inflation spike and what your teams are doing to try and manage this new environment?
It sounds like volume sensitivity has been high, but at a group level, you've kept good volume momentum them through h1 so so what do you think's been behind that thank you so let me take the first two um on the on the uh accounting for the tariff refund um so what overall what we're seeing here is we're expecting this to be this this refund that we received just before the half year to be repaid uh over time with i would imagine quite a lot of this being repaid in the second half as a consequence we are reflecting a deduction against our reported revenue our underlying revenue of 1.2 percent and we are then making adjustments to um to cost of sales to effectively mean this is a not there's no profit impact uh on this uh on this adjustment we do as you've seen throughout the statement or in the financial statements themselves obviously includes all of the refund in all of the areas where it should be when we're looking at the key metrics we've sought to adjust them to try and get back to what we believe is true trading i.e. not trying to show to show true revenue growth and indeed to your point not to show actual operating margins which are higher look higher than they really are so including the refund you'll see that margins are 7.4 percent reported but when we take it out actually uh the real the real underlying margin is is 7.3 percent and when we and we're we're forecasting forward on the same basis so when we talk about seven you know margins around 7.6 percent for a full year that would be excluding any impact of tariffs on the inflation piece um look our view is very much that we are already seeing both selling prices reduced and obviously we're increasingly selling through higher priced inventory as we've gone through Q2 in particular and sold through the pre-tariff inventory or the pre-price increase inventory. So we do expect to see selling prices reduced. We are seeing that and we're seeing gross margins decline as to the pattern of change we saw these prices increase quite quickly during q2 um we are seeing prices come up come down quite quickly as well and i think that talks to the fact that there is a heightened sensitivity to volumes in our in our manufacturer base who are wanting to make sure they don't um they want to protect volumes and don't hold prices high for too long uh we're also of the same mind uh we want to make sure that we bring our prices down appropriately protecting volume yeah just in in terms of uh you know how
our teams do i think tonsil is uh the management teams around the world are very effective in terms of uh managing margins um you know there's there it's a bit different uh than than it was in in COVID, where there were strong availability issues. This is a bit more like oil price related. Plastics, we've seen some big increases in disposable gloves, for instance, as a category. These things change also. We run what we call an Overwatch group where we have the 150 top buyers across the world having weekly calls, monitoring the biggest, you know, product groups, real big benefit of being part of Bonsor to navigate all these things and ultimately make sure that, you know, we're doing the right thing on the margins, but also make sure that we are very focused on, you know, retaining and growing volumes as well.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from Will Kirkness from Bernstein. Your line is now open.
Morning, thanks. I just wanted to follow up on the margins. And then I had a couple of other questions. So I think you said your margin assumptions are largely unchanged from the first half pre-close. But if we looked at oil pricing, which should feed into that plastics component, I mean, they're up sort of 20%, 25%. So I just appreciate you probably got price coming back a bit. And then we have the dynamics with your suppliers. but is there not a view that there's potentially a resurgence in pricing that happens and maybe flows through a little bit later? And I guess it's maybe a little bit early, but how would that feed into a view on 27 margins? And then linked to that, I guess, thinking about margins longer term, is flat the right way to think about that? Or does Mix, Own Brand, Warehouse consolidations all the stuff you've talked about drive longer term accretion um and then my final question was just on north america um i think in the uh presentation distribution saw underlying revenue growth of eight so does that mean the rest of the business was about flat thank you yeah let me take the margin the the short-term margin point um the well look i hear what you're saying well i think um you know we've despite the fact that we've seen when we did our pre-close
oil prices dropped significantly and on the day i think we were back to pre to pre-war prices at the time subsequent to that we've seen price oil prices rise again um but actually what we've seen on the ground is that these our input prices of particular categories and and also our selling prices are starting to reduce. So even though we do see higher levels, we're certainly not seeing it at the moment. All we're seeing is actually prices reduce. Is there a potential for resurgence? Look, we don't think so. It's not what we're seeing. If it did happen, then Yes, presumably there would be some level of price increases, albeit it's often harder to put prices up if this is just a very volatile movement up and down short term. And this is obviously being played out very publicly, which would make that harder. So I think the right assumption is the assumption we're guiding to, which is the margins selling prices and margins decline. we see lower margins h2 than than uh the second half of last year and that that provides a sensible exit rate when looking at 2027 let as to as to um margins for the longer term but we don't we don't give margin guidance in the longer term but what we do see is that we're very focused on making sure that profit growth profits improve and grow and as as we've said i think a number of occasions we see 2026 as a as a mechanism or a base from which we think we can grow profits organically and inorganically um there are plenty of things actions we take you mentioned some of them to make sure that our margins in the longer time term are either progressed or indeed are protected we need to grow volume and we do see further potential for own brand growth and of course acquisitions will be tend to be a net positive for us on the inorganic side so so there are plenty of routes for us to protect stroke grow margins but our focus is mainly on growing profits from a base that 2026 is establishing and yeah sorry frame
yeah i think the question on on on volume uh growth uh north america so north north america has been leading leading the pack but actually you're quite pleased that we have seen a broad based volume growth in in in all the all the regions uh inflation was strongest in in north america and in in continental europe especially in the second quarter um but um you know what makes me very happy is actually in the business where we have seen some of the execution issues that we're now seeing there the strongest growth. So Bonzo Distribution is leading the pack, which is clearly something we've been working very hard on.
And to see that it's happening there is uh it's fantastic to see and just on the point on on um on growth in in north america um you know obviously distribution growth of eight percent is very strong and accounts for you know a very significant proportion of the total we do have some parts of north america which have been under pressure uh our businesses in mexico retail um and in our convenience store business. We've also seen market softness. Our convenience store business has also lost volume. So there has been a relatively mixed picture in some areas, but our distribution business has been very positive.
Great. Thank you very much.
Operator
Thank you. The next question is from David Brockton from Deutsche Bank. Your line is now open.
Good morning. I wanted to pick up where that last question ended on the US distribution business and the 8% underlying growth you've seen there, you rightly caution that some of that growth reflects the annualisation of wins from the prior year. Can you just touch on what the outlook is for similar volume wins to what you secured in Q4 of last year, either with new categories of existing customers or new customers? And how should we think about this as a sustainable growth opportunity for the distribution business going forward on an organic basis. And sorry, finally related to that, do you feel that you've now got that sales channel for local customers fully restored and embedded in the business?
Yeah. So, well, basically, I think what is fundamental is to see that the distribution business, as a call of the machine, is operating in terms of on time in full. I would say, you know, distribution, there's three things important. On time in full, on time in full, and on time in full, a bit like property, property, location, location, location. Agility has returned. And, you know, the motivation of the team is very effective. So I think that is something that should be contributing everywhere. At the same time, we see that there's some disruption in the market with some competitors that are going to change processes or have a very difficult time. We believe that with a bit of focus that we longer term should be benefiting from that. So let's say having that business struggling to now in a position to continue to focus on growing the business is obviously very important. The sales channel you were referring to in terms of the local business, yes, we spend a lot of time on that particular part of the business. People locally are now able to make local decisions on price exceptions. We have that visibility on the true cost prices. They can bring in stock from the suppliers they prefer. they obviously benefit from the from the national own brand program so um certainly the the last few times i was in the u.s and when i'm in the u.s i always spend time with the sales teams because they give me the direct you know feedback and from what customers are thinking i've i've visited a lot of customers spend a lot of time uh with with our largest food redistribution customers and And you just feel that there's a very positive sentiment around what is happening. People are motivated. So, yeah, I think we're in a good position. There's always things you can fine-tune, but I think the machine is working. I think the focus is on growing the business. And, you know, sometimes with the bigger accounts, like, you know, in grocery or national customers, that can also be a bit lumpy. sometimes you win and and then sometimes it takes a while and then bring you bring something else in but i think uh let's say the broad-based organization is is functioning is set up for growth and ultimately that should uh you know help us develop the business in a positive way thank you thank you as a reminder to ask a question please press start four by one on your telephone keypad now we have a question from tim ramskill from bank of america your line is now
open thanks good morning gents um a few questions for me please i'll start with the uh again some of the dynamics around um around growth so i guess you asked a moment ago about whether the the rest of the u.s business x distribution is is delivering any growth it doesn't look like it is to me and then i guess your growth rates outside of of north america are somewhere between one to two percent which again given the backdrop of inflation being a feature everywhere i'm just interested in your thoughts as to whether those growth rates are um are sort of acceptable to you whether you think there's an improvement potential uh perhaps we haven't spent enough time talking about about the other geographies um and then rich as you pointed out in your pre-prepared remarks the comps are obviously going to be a bit more challenging in the in the second half of this year but indeed now we can see that the comps going into the first half of next year are going to get more challenging still so just your thoughts uh early as they might be on on the early shape of 2027 then the last one if i can just on tariffs just to sort of help bring us all up to speed on all the different moving parts um i guess part one do you think this is all done now is there any sort of residual effect you might see in the second half and then just how does it work through the supply chain in terms of these tariff rebates you know to your customers from your
suppliers to you etc just uh interested in how that all flows and and how it impacts on the cash flows thank you can you take this richard uh yes so look i think the growth across the group um But we're actually pretty pleased with the fact in the first half of this year, we're seeing not only good volume growth in North America, but actually volume growth across all of the business areas that we operate in. There's no doubt there has been an inflation benefit. I think as Frank talked to on the call, these price increases don't put themselves up. Our sales teams have to manage that process. And I think they've done that very effectively. As to is this an acceptable level of growth, we also, and Frank covered it in his section, we think Bonzo should grow volumes by real GDP in the markets that we operate in. Now, real GDP at this point is probably quite low in many of our markets. But nonetheless, I think we essentially service the activity in the economy, not necessarily some of the more peaky CapEx type spend in data centers, for example. But general activity on the high street or main street is what we do service. And that would lend itself to being in line with real GDP. I think a separate question is, do you think there's going to be ongoing inflation in our markets? I mean, certainly since COVID, we've seen a lot of inflation, the post-COVID inflation. And now, of course, one link to the Iran war. If you believe there's more net inflation around, then that's also additive to our growth and would be part of what we would see as our growth algorithm. alongside, of course, an ability to grow our to grow by acquisition and consolidate these highly fragmented markets. So that's the first question. On comps in 26, H2 and exit rates into 2027. But we will we do see the annualization that we've talked about of that new business wins in North America. it is absolutely fair to say that all of our businesses around the world are very active in reviewing pipelines looking to grow the top line um and uh and i think we're seeing you know good levels of success i mean the adidas initiative that frank talked about is an interesting organic opportunity for us with a very very well respected brand um now i don't think that changes really second half trends and into 2027 but nonetheless it is a real focus for our businesses but as we exit the year with revenues lower than they have been during the year particularly in volumes yes i do think there's a an impact on on 2027 we're not in a position to give any sense for 27 at this stage we'll come back to that later in the year but i think shape-wise there is some impact. And on tariffs, how's this going to work in the second half? Look, it's, as you'd appreciate, this is uncharted territory for most people. I don't think anybody's really ever seen the US government handing back this sort of money to suppliers. We don't see any further tariff refunds coming. There might be, if they are, they'll be very small. I think we've had the lion's share of it. Our businesses litigated early in the process to make sure that we were towards the front of the queue. And that's how it's turned out. As to how it happens with the supply chain, I mean, really, it's not really a supply. The supply chain point is really us to customers. We will have and are having conversations with customers around the returning these refunds. um but look we will know more as we go through the second half and we'll keep we'll keep the market updated you've had the cash and you expect the cash mostly to flow out in the second half i think is what you said on that point yes look i that's that's that's our sense tim i think we know let's see how we how it goes but yes i think we will be paying it back up a lot of it in the second half okay great if i can be really cheeky just there's probably about six parts to my my first question but just on distribution more broadly in north america
sort of where are you guys at relative to the high watermarks in other words how much recovery potential does the business still still have yeah so um what i said is if we we really focus on on the fundamental issues we had in the business and uh you know just to put in in in in context This is a $5 billion business. The change process we went through was never going to be easy. So it's a fundamental change. So yes, we had some issues, but we fixed them relatively quickly. And we have focused on the key components. They are operating now very well. So I would say that I think the machine operates well. I think like in every business, there are always areas where you can still fine tune it. I think and the focus now is on you know on growth on winning back sometimes you can't win back what you have lost but you win back something else or you know other categories or newer or newer customers or newer types of customers so we're in this phase of you know the business is operating well and we are there's more focus on growth and opportunities in the markets and you know I assume in the next couple of years we will see the results of that coming true.
Operator
Thank you. We have no more further questions so I'd like to hand back to Frank for closing remarks.
Thank you very much for attending our 2026 half-year results presentation. I hope you have a good day.
