Thank you, Darcy, and good morning, everyone. I'm joined on the call today by Fran Summer-Hayes, our CFO, and Peter Rockier-O'Connor, our GM Investor Relations. Today we released our FY26 full-year financial results on the ASX, including a presentation which will be the reference point for the call. Fran is excited to go through the financial results. In her first year at Evolution, so many new financial records have been set and she is delivering a bumper record dividend. We also announced changes to our board. Tommy McKee, who has been a director since 2014, will be retiring at our annual general meeting and John Vann will be joining the board on 1 December. Tommy has been an invaluable contributor to the board, Evolution and me personally. His knowledge and enthusiasm for the industry and almost every ore body is amazing. As Jake commented in the release, it is fitting to acknowledge and recognise the lasting impact he has had on our business, culture and success. Tommy will leave an enduring legacy and we are extremely fortunate to benefit from his counsel, vision, wisdom and friendship throughout his tenure. John is a geoscientist with more than three decades of experience across global mining businesses. I'm sure he will be a valuable addition to our board and look forward to working with John when joins us in December. Turning to the results and starting on slide three. Our record results reflect the quality of our portfolio and above all the dedication and efforts of the entire Evolution team. We are generating high returns and delivering on our commitment to shareholders. The record financial performance is on the back of safe, consistent and reliable operational delivery complemented by our disciplined approach to cost and capital management. As mentioned on the quarterly call last month, we delivered FY26 safely with our total recordable injury frequency of 5.9 remaining low. Today, we also released our inaugural climate report under the new reporting standard, highlighting the positive work being undertaken throughout our business to leave a lasting sustainable legacy. A high margin business is generating significant cash flow with a record cash flow of nearly 1.4 billion. The updated dividend policy with a payout rate of targeting 60% of annual group cash flow is sector leading. This means a record final dividend of $0.21 per share. For context, the total FY26 dividend of $833 million is more than our market cap was in early 2015 when we made our first major acquisition. The multiple projects at North Parks, Ernest Henry and Cal will generate high returns and further improve the quality of the portfolio when completed. We are set to continue our safe, reliable performance in FY27, with guidance expected to sustain our high-margin, high-cash generation position. I will cover the guidance details later in the question. Moving to slide four. This slide demonstrates our disciplined allocation of capital to drive sustained high returns. Our balance sheet supports our strategy through the cycle, be that for value accretive acquisitions, high returning organic growth investment or dividends. We adapt our allocation depending on market situations and the different stages of our mine plans. It is always done with a view to maximise our shareholder returns. While we've been mainly focused on advancing our organic growth pipeline in the past couple of years, We have not ignored accretive deals or our shareholders. Over the past year, the allocation of funds between organic growth opportunities and dividends is almost a 50-50 split at around $830 million to $850 million for each of them. We have also done accretive deals. At approximately $250 million, this is smaller in scale than normal, yet they are just as important to the portfolio. It clearly shows that we have the capacity and flexibility to allocate into all three areas to sustain the high returns for shareholders, which Fran will demonstrate. With that, I'll hand over to Fran.
Thank you, Laurie, and good morning, everyone. It is my pleasure and privilege in my first year with Evolution to present our most successful financial results. results. These financial results reflect the quality of our portfolio, the consistency and resilience of our performance and the benefits of a high margin operation. Importantly, we have banked the benefits of the higher metal prices and we have shared this success with our shareholders. We are very proud of what our evolution team has achieved. We delivered a record underlying EBITDA of $3.2 billion, up 44% from last financial year, with an annual record underlying EBITDA margin of 57%. Our costs are sector-leading, with our all-in sustaining costs of $1,717 an ounce, resulting in an underlying net profit after tax of $1.6 billion, up 63%. This translates into a record group cash flow of 1.4 billion, up 76% from prior year, with earnings per share reaching a record 73 cents per share, up 57% on prior year. These financial results demonstrate that we continue to deliver on our commitments to our shareholders, returning a record fully franked final dividend of $0.21 per share, up 62%, making a total dividend for FY26 of $0.41 per share more than double from prior years, and is 60% of our FY26 group cash flow. Whilst we have de-geared the balance sheet and achieved a net cash position, demonstrating that we can simultaneously invest in the business to enhance the portfolio while increasing our shareholder returns. Highlighted on slide six, this year we have achieved a record net mine cash flow of $2.1 billion, more than double from prior year. We invested $1.1 billion of capital into our operations with high-returning growth projects that are all on schedule and budget. Across the portfolio, we have had annual record net mine cash flow at Cowell, North Parks, Red Lake and Mongari. We continue to deliver consistently high EBITDA margins across the portfolio, as demonstrated on the right side of this slide, with group EBITDA margin increasing 12% to 57%. Two standout year-on-year performance were Red Lake and Mungari. Red Lake delivered an underlying EBITDA margin of 62%, reflecting consistent and reliable operational execution and cost control in a tariff environment. This converts into almost four times net mine cash flows than prior years. The operation has demonstrated its ability to sustainably generate returns and has earned the right to compete for capital within our portfolio. Mangari was another year-on-year standout, achieving an EBITDA margin of 65% following the successful commissioning and ramp-up of the expanded 4.2 million tonnes per annum processing plant. The project was delivered 15% below budget and nine months ahead of schedule. Importantly, this directly converted into a net mine cash flow of $366 million, more than three times from prior year. These operations highlight the value created through disciplined capital allocation, focused project execution, and consistent operational delivery across the portfolio. We enter financial year 2027 with a fully unhedged gold and copper portfolio. Moving to slide seven, these all-time financial records for evolution translate directly into record shareholder returns as we continue to deliver on our commitment in rewarding our shareholders. At year end, the group held almost $1.4 billion of cash with an undrawn revolving credit facility of $525 million, providing us sufficient liquidity. During the year, we have repaid all our bank term debt, and we now only have our low-cost and long-tenure US private placement with an average fixed rate of 4.47%, with the first tranche not due to be repaid until November 28. During the year, we have maintained our investment-grade credit rating, reinforcing the quality of our portfolio, balance sheet, and long-term outlook. Following these record financial results, we are pleased to reward our shareholders with our highest ever dividend. After paying a record fully franked interim dividend of $0.20 per share, the Board has approved a 27th consecutive dividend and a record fully franked final dividend of $0.21 per share. Given our improved financial position and outlook, we have reviewed our dividend policy and increased the payout ratio to a target of 60% of annual group cash flows. a significant increase from the previous 50%. This sector-leading dividend policy is supported by our 17-year reserve life and reflects our confidence in the long-term strength of the business while reinforcing our commitment to rewarding our shareholders. Since financial year 23, we have delivered on our commitment to deleverage the balance sheet, reducing gearing from 33% net debt to a net cash position in just three years, while continuing to invest in the business and deliver shareholder returns. Our capital management plan is designed to maximise long-term shareholder value while maintaining disciplined investment to continually enhance the quality of the portfolio and balance sheet. As slide eight shows, our record financial performance is underpinned by consistent and disciplined capital allocation. We continue to enhance the quality, resilience and longevity of our portfolio through investment in high return growth opportunities while improving overall portfolio returns. The board approved projects shown on this slide at half-year results demonstrate this approach in action. Now while this is one financial metric we look at, based on the current gold and copper prices, the expected internal rates of return for these projects are materially higher than the original base case assumptions providing additional value and upside for our shareholders in current market conditions. As we enter financial year 2027, evolution is in a position of considerable financial flexibility. We are operating in a supportive gold and copper price environment and focused on banking the upside. We have a high quality and high margin portfolio of assets, a pipeline of fully self-funded high-return growth opportunities and the financial capacity to execute on our strategy and continue to reward our shareholders. I will now hand you back to Laurie. Thank you.
Thank you, Fran. Slide nine summarises our FY27 guidance. Charts on the right-hand side highlights our cash flow potential outcome at the midpoint of guidance at current prices and our sensitivities. Overall, our FY27 plan will enable us to generate significant cash flows. At current prices, our operating mine cash flow would be around $3.6 billion, which is $200 million higher than FY26, even allowing for cost escalation in FY27. If the metal prices were around consensus levels, the cash flow would be approximately $3.4 billion. At a range of $3.4 to $3.6 billion and allowing for our planned capital investment and other costs such as tax, expiration and overheads, our group cash flow will allow us to sustain meaningful dividends for shareholders. We know the main drivers to our cash flow as shown on the sensitivities chart and we manage each of these in line with our cost and capital discipline. In terms of the guidance details, our group production is guided at 660,000 to 730,000 ounces of gold and 63,000 to 70,000 tonnes of copper. Outside of Mount Lord and finishing production this quarter, there is no material change in production capacity across the other operations. production is weighted to the second half of the year as we complete the access to the second decline at the cowl underground mine and access new mining areas in redlay the normal semi-annual major shutdowns will take place at cowl and ernest henry in the september and march quarters for the september quarter we are expected to produce in the range of 160 to 166 000 ounces and copper in the range of 16,000 to 17,000 tonnes. A group all-in sustaining cost is guided at $17.95 to $19.95 per ounce, which will remain one of the lowest in the sector. This is based on a copper price of US $5.72 per pound compared to the spot price that is approximately 15% higher. As outlined last month, the main drivers to the change in the oil in sustaining cost is the impact of cost escalation assumed at 4% to 5% or $150 to $160 per hour as well as the decision to invest in additional $50 to $60 million in sustaining capital on fleet and infrastructure to ensure long-term operational reliability. Our group capital guidance aligns to our FY27 outlook outlined in our June quarterly report. The main areas of investment for major projects and mine development are on the approved growth projects, namely E22, coarse particle flotation and the expansion study at North Parks, the overpit continuation project at Cal and the development of BERT at Ernest Henry. All these projects remain within the original approved budget. In summary, on slide 10, we have a high margin business and a 17-year reserve life. We are very much focused on delivering sustained returns. The combined effort throughout our business over the past couple of years to deliver safe and reliable performance is set to continue in FY27. We remain committed to margin over ounces, while at the same time making sure we capture the benefits of the high metal prices. All our growth projects remain on schedule and budget. the balance sheet flexibility enables us to continue executing our strategy with confidence out of all of this we make sure our shareholders benefit and our improved dividend policy targeting a 60 percent payout rate demonstrates that for fy26 the dividend is equal to 20 percent of our achieved gold price which is an outstanding return for our shareholders darcy please open the line for questions.
Operator
Thank you. If you wish to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone and name to be announced. If you wish to cancel a request, please press star 2. If you're on a speakerphone, please pick up the handset to ask your question. Your first question comes from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America.
Hi, good morning, Laurie. Congrats on the results. Can we just revisit the capex again for 27 which you gave us last month we previously had the 0.9 to 1.1 bill to fy 30 so say circa 5.6 bill 27 to 30 can you remind me what's in and out in terms of upcoming projects like north park mill expansion expansion for example and then i guess i'm trying to work out do we still think about that same envelope of spend to fy 30 and if it's just this year that's lumpier? Like, how has that envelope changed?
Yeah, thanks, Kate. Look, so the CapEx outlook of the 900 to 1.1, they're 530. The projects that are in there are the OPC at Cal, the E22 and BERT mine developments, the coarse particle flotation, and obviously our sustaining capital. So they are all of those projects. The outcome of the study at North Parks will determine what we invest in terms of if we expand the capacity there. So the only changes to that previous outlook is the additional sustaining capital that we've outlined today and last month of $50 to $60 million a year. And we did say that we expect that to be at least for the next three years that we'll be investing at that higher rate. and this year, the $70 million to $90 million on studies and works that we're going to undertake for future growth options. So if you look at it, there's nothing in terms of capital inflation that we're building into there. There are no new major projects that we're bringing into that outlook and the existing ones that are in execution are all on schedule and on original budget.
Does that clarify it for you? uh so the envelope is still essentially the same bar the sustaining capex correct yeah okay thank you and then we had the carnaby deal that you announced for another 10,000 tons of copper a year and i know you haven't got the keys to the asset yet but when do you think you could have first or to the ernest henry mill and then secondly there was the third party tolling agreement with glencore that you announced that kind of separately what is the thinking there or how should we think about that part?
So for the Carnaby deal, we expect that to close in November, subject to the Carnaby shareholder vote. We then have said it will be about a 12-18 month to really close out that feasibility study. And then beyond that, you'd be looking at about another 12-18 months. So you are potentially looking up to about three years from October, November. In terms of the third-party deal, So that is linked to a project that Glencore has an off-take agreement on, the Mount Margaret one. And so if that project starts, that ore would come through into the plant, given that we've got that capacity. And when we look at the Carnaby deal and that off-take agreement, we certainly have the capacity to do those, as well as anything that may come out of the Corella exploration program that we're currently running.
Okay, and the Mount Margaret pit being the one that Extrata previously mined, the satellite?
Okay, got it. And then just quickly, the non-cash component that you've assumed in the Cal all-in sustaining cost, please.
Give me 30 seconds. Cal in the non-cash component is about $50 to $70 an ounce this year, add to cost.
Operator
Thank you. Thank you. Your next question comes from Levi Spry with UBS. Go ahead.
Good morning, Laurie and Fran. Maybe a question for Fran, I guess, just following on from the capital questions there. So if I think about what's potentially coming next at North Parks and maybe some of that carnaby stuff and maybe some more at Cal, can you walk us through the process to arrive at the 60%? What drives the upper band? and maybe you can talk to potentially what other forms of returns may or may not have come into consideration.
Yeah, Levi, I'll get Fran to talk about the capital allocation and dividends. All I'm working on the basis is that since Fran's arrived, we're paying a lot more out to shareholders. So she's got to build on that this year. In the capital, as I just said to Kate, all of the projects that are in execution and studies are in our outlook. The next major ones really will be the outcome of the study at North Parks this year. And then at Cal, it will be the outcomes of the exploration and drilling that we've got going on at E41 and the underground and potential for a second underground. They would be the next main pieces of capital. In terms of Carnaby and the Great Duchess project, we believe there's a lot more work to firm up that feasibility study and so once we take ownership in November we're going to turn our attention to completing that study and that's when we'll have the best indication to give you an outlook on what that capital would be. Fran just want to talk on the 60%?
Yeah sure thanks Levi. So our capital management plan is consistent and and focused obviously on maximising long and what I mean by that is based on our life of mine plans the quality of our assets we look at the most economic way to bring our reserves and resources to market so we're focused on balance and be disciplined investing in our high returning growth options and opportunities within the portfolio but also balancing rewarding our shareholders via capital returns so given our financial position, the confidence in the outlook and portfolio, the highest return outcomes for our shareholders is increasing our target dividend payout to 60% of annual group cash flow. So we'll be balanced in regards to investing in our business to maximise value and also maintain finance flexibility to confidently execute on our strategy. But as we've said before, we don't see value and we don't intend to accumulate excess cash on the balance sheet so if the gold or copper prices remain supportive and continue to increase resulting in say cash generation before our higher than our business requirements they're a good problem to have we will continue to evaluate the full range of capital management options to reward our shareholders like we have done today.
Yep, that's great. Thanks, Fran.
Operator
Thanks, Levi. Thank you. Your next question comes from Matthew Friedman with MST Financial. Please go ahead.
Sure. Morning, Laurie and Fran. A couple more following up from similar themes, maybe firstly on Carnaby. Can you comment at all on the structure of the consideration? Obviously, all script offer, you know, you've got $1.35 billion in cash and, you know, pretty low cost debt, as Fran outlined. I know it's a very, very small amount of dilution, but wouldn't it be better for your existing shareholders to put some of that cash and balance sheet to work rather than issuing more equity?
I guess, yeah, just wondering how you think about the structure there and also how that relates to any other sort of bolt-on opportunities in general across your portfolio where, you know, whether you see any other opportunities for that sort of M&A, thanks. yeah matt um look i think when we look at it we've got to also consider what was the carnaby's board and and team's um preference in in terms of the transaction as well in that you know by by us offering them them script they can continue to participate in the upside on the project um through taking taking uh shares in evolution i think the other thing and and you We do try to limit issuing the stock, and this is 1%. I think when you look at it, that is the best use of our script at the moment in this transaction. And then as we look at other things going forward, if you look at all of our other acquisitions, we've always used a mix of cash, debt, and equity, and we will always do that depending on the size and the scale of it.
Yeah, thanks, Laurie. And maybe any other opportunities across your portfolio for similar sort of bolt-on acquisitions? Obviously, Ernest Henry has the benefit of latent meal capacity. But yeah, how do you see that across your portfolio? Thanks.
I think if we look across the portfolio, you know, Cal, we're able to keep that plant filled. Similarly, at Red Lake, Ernest Henry, we've got the land at Corella, as well as now looking at Carnaby. North Parks I think we've got enough ore bodies there to fill that plant be it a current state or expanded state and Mungari is probably one that's got capacity but there's not a lot of options right now for us to bring something in that has improved the quality at Mungari got it thanks Laurie that's helpful and then maybe just following up on the sort of capital management plan questions obviously the company has a pretty enviable track record on dividends and you know you've increased that further today with an update to the policy so I do feel a bit like I'm complaining that maybe the beer's a bit too cold.
But with, you know, the cash on the balance sheet, I guess what made the board reluctant to consider, I suppose, a broader range there or perhaps a special dividend or something to really sort of accelerate those shareholder returns in the current environment, you know, current metal prices, current outlook? Thanks.
Yeah, Matt, I said over the last six months, No matter what capital management plan that Fran and the board end up with, we're not going to please every shareholder. If we tried to please everyone, we're probably going to please no one. I think when you look at $1.4 billion of group cash flow, we're paying out over $830 million of that back to our shareholders. I think that's an incredible rate of return. And then, you know, we could have easily gone higher than that. But, you know, I think that's a good step from a 50% to 60%. We've always said, and as Fran said just earlier, you know, we're not going to build a lot of cash and we can't control. If the metal prices stay where they are, as I outlined with our guidance, we will make significant cash flows this year. And if the prices are higher, therefore, the dividend cents per share will be higher for our shareholders. And then in the next 12 months, if they do stay there, Fran's got another good problem of set a new record for dividends and work out how much more to give back. And is that given back through specials? Is it given back through buybacks or a high payout rate? And I'm sorry we didn't please you.
No, no, that's a very pleasing outcome. Thanks, Laurie.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Daniel Morgan with Baron Joey. Please go ahead.
Hi, Laurie and Tim. First question, just to Ernest Henry. Obviously, cycling down in production a tad and spend stepping up. Is this just for FY27, or is this sort of the multi-year impact of developing down to get the life extension infrastructure in, just sort of trying to understand the production and spend outlook a bit more at Ernest Henry?
Yeah, Dan, it's actually a combination. So as we know from the weather event when we were out of production through the March quarter and where the water ended up was down at the development level. So we've got to catch that up. We've got to put additional ventilation, refrigeration, and then we do have the trucking back up to the existing materials handling system. So some of that, as we said, as we get to the second half of the year and we get the ventilation and everything in place and we can therefore lift the productivity, you'll see some of that come back through. And the other thing to note is that, you know, in FY26 and 27, as we're going through some areas in the cave where there is waste in with the mineralised ore, we've got to take that with us. So that is obviously displacing ore. Once we get through that zone, you then start to see it come back. So it is a combination of both of those. You'd likely see what we've got this year. We get ventilation back next year. We go a little bit deeper. So production 27 and 28 would be pretty similar, and then you start to get into it where you get burnt, you get back into more ore out of the cave, and hopefully not long after you get carnaby coming through. I should be calling it Great Duchess.
Thank you. And I know it is a small deal, but you've just done a deal with Arizona Gold and Silver, just trying to, if you could maybe outline what you're trying to achieve through this investment, both the investment itself and how you've structured it. Thank you.
Yeah, so look, that's a new opportunity that Glenn and the team identified. And so the area that we've picked up with Arizona Gold and silver is highly prospective but historically it's only been considered for shallow drilling to do leaching operations but this deposit as we've seen some deeper drilling is certainly showing some some really good grades and grades over an extended area so that's the reason why we've sort of got interested and invested in this and it is allowing then Arizona Gold and State to create their drilling program. So we've farmed into it via just under 10% of the company with some warrants to acquire more of the company and then certainly as the program progresses, if it proves up, we've then got the option if we want to make a decision to take out that project. or take out a further percentage of it.
Okay, thank you very much, Laurie and Tim.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from James Redfern with RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, Laurie, Fran and Peter. I hope you're well. Most of my questions have been asked already, but maybe just a question on the asset guidance, please, for FY27. You mentioned it's based on a copper price of $5.72 US a pound, which spots around $6.60. which would indicate that maybe the ASIC is flat year on year. I'm just wondering if you have any sensitivities around ASIC in relation to copper prices. And also, what are you seeing in terms of cost inflation in the industry outside of diesel costs?
Yeah, sure. James, I'll hand to Fran in terms of the cost sensitivities outside of labour and diesel. But if you do look at slide 14 in our presentation deck that we've released today is the AISC sensitivities. And so the copper price, you know, of around $1,000 a tonne Aussie, therefore, you know, about 30 cents a pound is worth $90 to $95 per ounce. And every thousand tonnes of copper is worth about $25 to $30 an ounce. so in short if yeah if you saw the the current price copper price sustained for the whole year you're potentially looking at about 190 to 210 dollar an ounce benefit which would would sort of bring you back in towards um what we achieved in fy26 um and hence why um and i do think when you look at the disruption in the copper market at the moment we're a little bit more optimistic on on the copper price and what it could do for our cash flows and AISC. Fran, do you want to touch on the cost drivers?
Yeah, sure. Thanks, James. So in terms of cost drivers, obviously our biggest cost driver being Labor at 50%. We are seeing that increase around the 4.5%, and particularly pressure in Western Australia in terms of retention and absenteeism. so we're doing what we can there around employee engagement. Our next biggest part is cost driver would be maintenance parts and we're seeing that there's between about 3% and 10% but we're focusing on our maintenance strategies and what we can do in regards to the cost pressures in maintenance. Our next cost base would be electricity at about 9% but we're pretty much locked in there for long-term contracts and a big one focusing on lower costs and lower emissions to supply electricity there. And as you mentioned diesel, but I'll just remind you that diesel is low for us in terms of only 2% to 3% of our cost base, and that's mainly among Gary and Cal. Yeah, but other than that, it fits within the envelope that Laurie quoted to the 4% to 5% and reflected in our guidance.
Okay. Fran and Laurie, thank you. That's great. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from David Radcliffe with Global Mining Research. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Laurie and team. I thought I'd ask you similar questions to everyone else about really, I guess, the link between capital and the production outlook. Maybe using Red Lake as an example where we've got lower production going forward and we've got more capital. all so what is the the way forward here for say red lake if we take this as one that we don't get as much attention and it does feel like a little bit but we're still sort of stuck in the past is there any sort of optionality being opened up here from the extra development spend this year um i know you've talked about the tailings upside but that maybe just seems still incremental given it's still very large very high grade resource um and maybe if there isn't sort of a our way forward this one you know is it still core to the portfolio yeah look dave i think
there's a couple of things when you look at red lake so um firstly when we talked about the sustaining capital and infrastructure this is one asset that we have allocated more sustaining capital to in terms of fleet and fixed plant um we we needed to do that and also we have increased the sustaining mine development at the operation to make sure that we can keep the production levels at that 30,000 to 40,000 ounces per quarter over the longer term. So it is seeing that lift. But I think if you first look at their all-in sustaining year on year, the inflation is that biggest driver that would add about $140 to $150 an ounce and then that additional bit of sustaining capital is what's getting you to the guidance range for this year. So what we are doing is making sure we can make it more efficient and the cost level is able to reduce over time. Does it sit into the portfolio? I mean, from our perspective, with the assets we've got and the projects we've got in the other operations over the next few years, having Red Lake and Mangari that are sitting there producing in the order of 320,000 to 350,000 ounces and generating cash back to the business, I think that's a perfect fit for the other three that are going through some high-return organic growth investment in the next three to four years.
Okay. Thank you. That's clear. I'll pass it on.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Mitch Ryan with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, Laurie and Fran. Hope you're well. Just as Mount Norden proceeding comes to an end, I think the prior closure estimate was roughly $100 million. We pump up hydro proposals to be prioritised. What is the latest closure and rehab estimate? Is there any residual value of third-party interest in the mill or existing infrastructure there?
Yeah, Fran will talk you through the closure. I mean, from our perspective, at the metal prices, if they were to sustain or go higher, there's certainly a potential for a cutback but we think that would be better suited for someone else possibly so there's there's nothing much in the way of what we're considering for the operation we'll move into care and maintenance through this year as as the priority right now Fran.
Yeah so Mitch in terms of the balance sheet we always took a conservative approach with Mount Rawdon, as if the pump hydro would not go ahead. So the provision is sitting around 75 mil discounted on the balance sheet, and that's a spend profile out to about 2044, with the majority of the capital plan spend is in the first 10 years, and you see that start to kick up in about 2030.
That's definitely a Jake Rounding error, Mitch.
And just after the weather event at Ernest Henry, can you provide an update? Do you have any expected insurance recoveries there and what sort of the process is on receiving those if you do?
Yeah, look, so we do have insurance at the operation and as with the 2023, we did receive insurance proceeds on that. In terms of this incident, same thing does exist in terms of the insurance coverage. For some of the mobile fleet that was damaged or destroyed during the event, that's covered and we're already getting replacement equipment in. In terms of the cost of recovery and remediation, we're working through that now and that will then go to the insurers. And so through FY27 is when we'd see the outcomes of that claim.
Thank you very much for taking my questions, Chair.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Hugo Nicolacci with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Good morning, Worry, Fran, Rocky. I know you've got the site visits coming off, so I'll hold off recycling my question on the upside at Cal, but maybe looking at Red Lake and building on David's question, it just does look like we're sort of reset a little bit further than that sort of 30,000 to 35,000 ounces a quarter from closer to 40.
Are you able to just talk through a bit more detail, just sort of some of those moving pieces and based on the potential study outcomes you know can we see that quick back up or is the study more focused on maintaining that lower rate from here um here we go so yeah i mean when you look at it this year um next year you know it's more towards the 30 to 35 because of where we are and as we said in the second half of this year we access some new mine areas at red lake and then And when you look beyond the next couple of years, the work around the tails reprocessing and also some areas that we're putting some exploration dollars into about bringing that into is aimed at getting it to the 35,000 to 40,000 ounce per quarter and above that. And that's really what the current life of mine plan is showing. And I think when you look at Red Lake, you know, three mining areas, it just doesn't have a lot of, I guess, excess capacity or mine areas as some of the other operations have. And so we've got to work a little bit harder to get that back up at the 35 to 40.
Great. That's helpful. And maybe one for Fran just on the balance sheet. Is a 10% to 15% long-term gearing ratio still what you're running with there? or do you now, potentially with the CapEx coming up, look to maintain a more conservative balance sheet near term?
Well, over the long term and with the cycles, yes, we're still carrying the 10% to 15% net debt. But I'll also note we are prepared to go outside of that for high-value options. So like we did, say, in 23, we're at 33% net debt and then obviously within the three years we're able to get into a net cash position with the higher metal prices. But yes, you go 10 to 15.
Great, thanks. And then just one more, obviously lots of positives and things to look forward to, as you've reiterated today. Just maybe the other side of the ledger, is there anything that concerns you in the new term outlook? You know, is it underground performance or maybe things like labour availability?
And if so, do you see any regions presenting particular issues at the moment? no i think if we look at it hugo we're we're always alert to to what can happen on the downside but um where we sort of sit across the business we want to continue the the consistency that we had over the last couple of years and and do that through 27 because if the metal prices um stay where they are today we want to make sure that we get that cash and and can uh and reward our shareholders. There's plenty of things that are keeping Matt, Nancy, Fran and the site GMs awake, but it's all part of being in the mining industry. Great, thanks guys.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Adam Baker with Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Morning, Laurie and Fran. It's just one on the production guidance. I mean, you mentioned it's weighted for the second half of the year. Just wondering if you can give us an approximate breakdown. You know, are we looking at a 48-52 split or what sort of quantum we're looking at there and noting your opening remarks where you're indicating 160 to 166,000 ounces to gold. So it looks like September quarter is going to be your seasonally weakest of the year.
That's correct, Adam. If we get the 160 to 166, then the other three quarters have got to be better than that. It goes to the two shutdowns quarters, which are the September and March quarters. And as we said, the second half is as we get more access in the underground at Cal. A split, I'm not sort of going to get caught into that because there will be ups and downs. Our outlook is, over the year, we'll deliver the 660 to 730 and the copper.
That's good. And just, you know, second on the balance sheet, we're in very, very good shape here. It's got the undrawn $525 million revolver, no US private placement repayments till FY29. What further optimisations, you know, could we be doing from here, Fran, over the next 12 months?
Yeah, I think over the next 12 months, it's really just delivering on our commitments that we're making in our FY27 guidance ranges there. Obviously, the $70 to $90 million call-out from Laurie in regards to study and growth to see if we can allocate our capital to high-returning investments. And then other than that, as I said, if we bank the upside of higher gold and copper prices, we don't want to carry and don't see value holding large amounts on the balance sheet, so we'll look to reallocate that out to shareholders. Thanks, Adam.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from David Coates with Bell Potter. Please go ahead.
Morning, Laurie, Fran and Rocky. thanks for congratulations on the results and thanks for your time this morning this has been covered a little bit but just that slide 4 which sort of lays out the kind of capital allocation as it's panned out for FI26 it kind of sounds like we should sort of see that as a bit of a template going forward with sort of shareholder returns as like a top priority and then the balance kind of flexing between organic growth and accretive deals Does that kind of fit with how you guys think about the capital allocation outlook?
No, Dave, I think, as I said earlier on the call, what we've got to be able to demonstrate, and I think we have demonstrated, is that we can work in all those three areas to get returns for our shareholders, and it does depend on what's happening at the time. I look at North Parks as the example. in 2023, we couldn't control the timing of when CMOC decided they wanted to exit. If something comes up in the next 12 months and it's something that Kieran and the team says to the board and I that this is something we should bring in the portfolio, we'll go into that area. If there isn't, then we'll continue to invest in the organic growth. But I go back to the earlier thing. We're investing in that $1.1 billion right now. yes, we're allocating a couple of hundred million dollars more. If metal prices stay where they are for last year, shareholders are still going to be getting somewhere, you know, around the $800 to $850 million back. That's what we're trying to say is that we work in all three areas. It depends on what's happening at the time, but we don't just focus on one of them. And our balance sheet, we're very comfortable and confident that it will meet the requirements of all three.
No, it's in a very flexible position at the moment, no doubt about that And then secondly, a sort of more micro kind of question Red Lake, really a strong improvement year on year Obviously gold prices help that But what are the operational changes What's that have enabled that improvement?
Look, there's a number We did have a KPI of not getting many questions on Red Lake, but I think this year's guidance is going to draw some attention. But essentially the key things that changed there, Dave, is with a number of the areas that we're mining, we had to change the mix to get a good balance between some selective mining and bulk mining. And by having done that, by having changed out some of the fleet there and the workforce buy-in to that mine plan has enabled us to really get that improved reliability. In terms of then the cost structure, you know, it was around standardising rosters. It was around being able to move people and equipment between the three mines. It was certainly around lifting when the productivity lifted get the cost base down, everyone started to participate in the quarterly performance bonus. Once they got that, they never wanted to go back to no bonuses, so that helped in terms of cost, discipline and productivity. It's been a whole mix of things there at Red Lake. The only thing I'd say is that compared to all the other assets, it's one that you just can't stop. I explained it to Rocky. It's like riding up a hill. the minute you stop pedalling, you'll be back down the bottom. Probably not a good analogy for Rocky who got hit by a car on a bike last week, but it's the analogy.
Excellent. Thanks, Barry. Cheers. Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question comes from Zane Groh with JPM.
Thanks, Tim. Just following up on the oil and sustaining cost, I understand that diesel price are only 3% of the cost, but nevertheless, keen to understand what diesel price you've assumed for FY27 and just on the 3% to 10% inflation on maintenance parts called out by Fran earlier, are you seeing similar cost pressures across your growth capex spend?
So on the growth capex, no. I mean, all of our projects are on the budget. We knew when we approved the projects there'd be some cost escalation and we've allowed for that and we're not outside that range. in terms of diesel look it's it's somewhere in between you know what it was what it spiked to when the the situation first started and then where it sort of got back down to um when tensions eased for a period but in terms as i said and you mentioned it it's it's not a material cost for us um when we look at it the main users are at mungari and cow in the open pit yeah understood and just to follow up on red lake what's the latest thinking around reprocessing the tails and i guess what what are the hurdles you need to see to sanction the project and potential timelines yeah so look it's over the next 12 to 18 months we'll finish that work we've got drilling going on we've got the study happening and then then what we've got to look at is which you know we've got three plants there which is going to be the best way to put that through and then you've got the permitting. So, you know, you are talking at least two and a half, three years before you see anything coming through on that one.
Operator
Thank you. We have a follow-up question from Kate McCutcheon with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Thank you. I just wanted to see if Rocky was okay after that. But no, I do have a question on Cal. So you've noted that back-end's uplift in production with the second decline there. You did 2.4 million times last year, annualised the last quarter at 2.77. What does your mind plan at Cal have you annualising into H, or how do we think about a step up in those underground tons with a second decline, or does something offset with face positions at the decline that you've got?
Yes, Kate, good call out on Rocky. In terms of the Cal underground, what you'll see in the second half is that we then have that capacity to go above the 2.4 million tonne annualised rate. I think when you look at FY26, we did have some easier areas to access and therefore we were able to get some productivity. And we were going through a change in mining contractor there. So we did have two contractors working on the site in the June quarter as that transition happened. So that gave us a lift up there as well. So as we get into the second half of the year, you get that capacity to go above 2.4, targeting somewhere between 2.4 and 2.6, and then looking through the course of this year, what could we go beyond FY27? And I think when we get to September with the investor update and the site visit and looking at Glenn's plans on the expiration, that's when you'll get a sort of, I think, a better insight as to what we're thinking about in terms of the underground there. okay thank you thank you there are no further questions at this time i'll now hand back to mr conway for any closing remarks thank you darcy thank you everyone for your time today really do appreciate your interest in asking fran what she's doing with all the cash and why she's spending so much capital on high returning projects that we've got in train do look forward to catching up with you who are attending our investor briefing and site visits to and North Parks next month. Thank you again for your time.
