Earnings Call Transcript - KMB 2026-11-05

Operator

And welcome to the Kimberly-Clark third quarter 2026 earnings call. Participants have been placed on a listen-only mode. I will now hand the floor over to Chris Jakubik, Vice President, Investor Relations at Kimberly-Clark. Chris, please go ahead.

Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I would like to remind everyone that during our comments today, we will make some forward-looking statements that are based on how we see things today. Actual results may differ due to risks and uncertainties, and these are discussed in our earnings release and our filings with the SEC. We will also discuss some non-GAAP financial measures during these remarks. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered a replacement for and should be read together with GAAP results. And you can find the GAAP to non-GAAP reconciliations within our earnings release and the supplemental materials posted at investor.kimberly-clark.com. With that, I'll turn it over to Mike for a few opening comments.

Mike Hsu, CEO

All right. Thank you, Chris, and thank you, everyone, for joining us. Well, Well, this week marks a new chapter for Kimberly Clark. We officially completed our acquisition of Kenview, a defining moment in our 154-year history. We're delighted to welcome the talented Kenview team. The closure of this transaction marks a major milestone in our Powering Care transformation, a year of rigorous integration planning, and the starting point for an exciting future defined by extraordinary care. We have created a portfolio and set of capabilities uniquely positioned at the intersection of fast-moving consumer goods and health care. Our companies share a rich heritage. We've pioneered entire categories, providing everyday essentials that serve billions of people around the world. Consumers have been loyal to our brands for generations because they trust us to provide better care for them and their loved ones. We form deep, lifelong bonds with consumers and translate that intimate relationship into significant lifetime value. And now we have a generational opportunity to do even more. Everyday health is becoming more personal, more proactive, and more essential. With the addition of the Kenview brands, we will be there for more people, in more places, and across more everyday health needs. That is the aspiration that guides our new company. Better care in more hands to enable smarter health. From baby care to women's health to active aging, consumers require and deserve a higher standard of care, and we will meet that moment with exceptional science-backed innovation and best-in-class execution that continues to raise the standard. We're energized and we're ready. We work to strengthen our base business, enhance our capabilities, and build our combined team. Now, our team is heads down, focused on execution. Near term, we will enhance performance, efficiency, and effectiveness by applying our proven operating model. We'll reinvest in our brands to ensure we're delivering superior brand propositions across the value spectrum. Medium term, we will benefit from category and geographic expansion. And longer term, we will capture secular growth tailwinds. Our teams have worked hard to map out our integration, and we've implemented the leadership team and operating model for the new company, executed critical day one priorities, and sequenced multi-year systems and process integration roadmaps. We've got a running start, and our priorities are clear. We will execute with excellence, deliver against our synergy commitments, strengthen our core brands and businesses, and see growth. Now, to deliver the value of the combination, we have a clear three-phase plan. Ready, set, and grow. Ready covers the first hundred days when we will set the tone for the new company, and in this first phase, we'll ensure seamless operations and deliver quick wins on synergies. I'm confident that our shared commitment to care and strong execution will enable us to deliver generational value for consumers, customers, and shareholders. Now, looking at the third quarter, we delivered solid results driven by our durable operating model, which overcame challenging one-off headwinds. The underlying health of our base business remains strong, and we have sustained momentum. North America continue to show strength in tissue and share gains in KC Professional, and we are driving performance in personal care. We also delivered across our international personal care focus markets, including South Korea, Brazil, and Indonesia. And as we move into the fourth quarter, we're focused on applying our playbook across the combined company, and our durable power and care growth engine will continue to power and strengthen our performance. We're confident in our ability to drive sustainable growth in 2027 and beyond. I want to thank the teams who have made our transformation possible and executed this acquisition with such dedication and focus. We're excited for this new beginning and the future we're building. Kimberly-Clark is a new kind of health and wellness company, and extraordinary starts today. So with that, I'd like to open the line for questions.

Operator

Certainly. Everyone, at this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you have any questions or comments, please press star 1 on your phone keypad at this time. We do ask, while posing your question, to please pick up your handset if listening on speakerphone to provide optimal sound quality. Once again, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad at this time. If you wish to join the queue to ask a question, please hold a moment while we poll for questions. And your first question today is from Morgan Stanley. Dara, your line is live. Please go ahead. All right. Hello, Dara.

Dara, Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Hey, good morning.

Operator

How are you?

Dara, Analyst — Morgan Stanley

How are you? So, we've had some pressure points that have cropped up more recently, cost pressures, even with oil coming back down in the last couple days here. You've been dealing with the China issue. Just the maintain fiscal 26 guidance. Just wanted to get a sense of what drives confidence there and maybe some of the key assumptions driving the underlying Q4 delivery. And then for 27, the opposite question, which is, you know, you've laid out adjusted earnings solution, not expected to be more than mid-single-digit dilutive versus standalone KC, but you've got potential synergies that could be pretty robust. There's a couple of one-time items from 26, like the fire, the China issue that could get better. So one could be more optimistic. So it'd just be helpful to hear some of the puts and takes for 27 now that the deal is officially closed, particularly synergies and reinvestment needs and any of the other key factors you would call out for next year.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Okay. Hey, Dara, maybe I'll start and I'll ask Nelson to chime in, but I just kind of want to give you some overall perspective on how we're thinking about the balance of this year and then a little bit into 27. But I will tell you the overall is we feel great about where we are and what our plans are shaping up to be. In the near term, we're very focused on executing and building sustainable momentum. And, you know, part one for me, the priority is we're going to focus on executing the integration seamlessly. As I told the organization in multiple town halls, and, you know, my perspective is I want the integration to be boring for the organization and also for our customers. You know, and that means is... In a pragmatic way, you know, it's exciting that we're coming together, but we want to be able to operate. And our euphemisms internally, we say, hey, we want to be able to ship product, pay suppliers, and pay people, right? And so that's kind of the paradigm that we're operating in. We're very, you know, we're very focused on the fundamentals. I will tell you, as of Monday, we implemented the new organization structure and the new operating model, and that's off to a great start. There's definitely lots of work ahead, you know, because obviously, you know, as we come through the coming weeks, especially into 2027, you know, we'll be making some staffing changes, system and reporting changes, but that's all going to be very, very well sequenced, and we feel great about that. And so I mentioned this, like, three stages of how we're thinking about integration. Ready, that's really about flawless execution through the first 100 days. Set is really about 2027, which is making sure we're establishing a sound foundation, you know, for growth. And then grow is unlocking the full potential of the company, right? So I think that's kind of how we're thinking about the integration. I think part two is, you know, the second big priority for me and my leadership team is we're focused on improving the momentum of Kenview and KC brands, right? I will tell you, self-care and essential care performance was solid in the quarter. You guys probably already saw that. You know, it was up three organically, and, you know, we take a look at a detailed bi-category, bi-time period scorecard. of the Kenview brands every month in our monthly trading updates up until we closed. And I would say, you know, for a scorecard that looked 100% red this time last year, you know, Nelson, I think you would agree. I think when we had our view last Thursday, it was 70% green. And so I think the Kenview business is turning and turning pretty well. But the other areas, you know, where we've got to get improvement is some on the KC brands. And as you're well aware, Dara, that, you know, we had this social media crisis that was, you know, proven to be false based on false information, but it did impact our business pretty significantly. And so I think it's going to take us time to work it back. We're very confident we'll bring the business back and ultimately regain our market leadership position. But it's going to take a little time to rebuild that. And then the last area is, you know, we're looking for improved performance in North America skin care, North American oral care, and then a little bit on the Casey side, the personal care, we'd like to improve our execution in pockets, including in North America. So, again, I think that's kind of the overall where the first couple priorities are. Maybe the thing I'll click on underlying all that is we're going to stay very balanced and focused on creating shareholder value over the long term. And that means, as you might expect from us, we're not really going to sacrifice long-term value to manage to a short-term number. We want to make sure we can invest in the brands. The China diapers is a case in point. The business has taken a hit, but we're going to continue to invest through the cycle to make sure that we rebuild that business back to it. And so ultimately, you know, we're a flywheel growth company, and that means we want to be able to invest in our brands to drive growth, and that will create a virtuous cycle of growth. And so that's kind of where our focus is. But I think, Nelson, maybe we'll give you maybe some of the additional details.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

Yeah, just to back a little bit, Dara, I mean, a few things. As Mike said, we feel pretty good about where we stand today. And, you know, more importantly, we're taking a very disciplined approach to the first year of the combined company to ensure that we have sustainable, profitable growth in the mid-long term. As a starting point, I mean, we're on track or ahead across the key deal metrics that we laid out a year ago, including... Closing of the transaction, the synergy pacing, the cost of capital, and the operating momentum across our legacy stand-alone, Kimberly Clark Business, Kenview, our new categories, and Arbex, which went live July 1st of this year with our joint venture partner, Susana. I think it's perspective as we head into the balance of the year and 2027, our first full year as a combined company. For a transformation of this magnitude, I mean, we remain on track on both earnings accretion and, importantly, approximately leading, you know, getting to about a two-times leverage by the end of the second year of the transaction. Now, going into your question on 2026 and then next year. Next year. First, our outlook, and that's, again, standalone Kimberly Clark, reflects stronger underlying business momentum that the headline third quarter results suggest, along with a strong global commercial agenda for the fourth quarter that's underway. We also expect to benefit from incremental cost-mitigating actions that were taken. In the third quarter, this includes all the elements within our integrated margin management toolkit, revenue growth management, productivity, and other measures that the team has already activated. And the other bit to take into account is that we have an easier comp in the fourth quarter, particularly for our North America business, which, as you might remember, had a lower growth in the fourth quarter of last year. And then the other bit, as Mike mentioned, is we will remain pretty disciplined in the balance of the year, that is, in the next two months, and we're reserving the flexibility to pursue value-creating investments that can accelerate our longer-term agenda if attractive opportunities emerge between now and the end of the year. Looking at the next year, three things that we're focused on. First, Delivering to deal synergies. Second, strengthening the core of the two businesses. And then third, seeding future growth. As it relates to deal synergies, we are on track with our synergy plans. And the actions that Kenview took at the beginning of this year actually position as well to have a strong start as we get. get the two companies operating on a combined basis now. The other bid is on strengthening the core of the businesses. We continue to expect a gradual return towards a category level growth, particularly in the new categories that have come into the business, and this will be supported by increased investments in marketing, innovation, and R&D. At the same time, we'll be sharpening the portfolio and improving execution, and this will include SKU rationalization, increased service levels, improvements, all of which can create some near-term impacts as we position the business for healthier mid- and long-term growth. And then lastly, on seeding, our future growth. We are also making targeted upfront investments behind our biggest categories and the opportunities we see, recognizing that the financial contribution will build over time. So overall, Dara, we feel pretty good about where we stand today, and we remain on track against the assumptions we established a year ago, and we'll preserve flexibility to invest appropriately behind the business over the next few months and in 2027.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Thank you. I feel like we hit you with a fire hose.

Dara, Analyst — Morgan Stanley

Very comprehensive.

Operator

Thanks. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Peter Grom from UBS. Peter, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Peter Grom, Analyst — UBS

Great. Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Hope you're doing well. So I wanted to just ask about North America. I know there are a lot of moving pieces here, but we'd love to get your perspective just on the health of the business. It'll give a weaker share performance in the last couple of quarters and pricing lower. So just, you know, any perspective there on how you see that evolving as we move forward?

Mike Hsu, CEO

Yeah, thanks, Peter. I will tell you, you know, I'm confident in the underlying health of the North America business on the KC side. Well, actually, both sides, you know, I think, you know, but, you know, I think that question was more directed on the KC side. The underlying health of the KC side of the business is solid. It was a soft quarter. You know, definitely, Peter, impacted by a few key discrete impacts. The largest, I think, which is, you know, again, retailer inventory changes, which for us in the quarter was about 130 basis point headwind. You know, we did postpone a major new product launch, and again, that's... Maybe an executional issue within the house. You know, we had a new manufacturing asset to produce the new product out, and it wasn't putting out the quality that we wanted, and so we pulled it back, and we'll be launching it likely early next year. And so that was probably the second big one. And then there is some share softness, primarily due to club distribution changes in baby care, which I think you guys are all well aware of. And so those were a few of the big impacts. I do expect overall in North America our execution to improve. I'm really confident in the innovation pipeline. I think the brand investments that we have and the commercial capabilities, as you guys are well aware, you know, we have a great customer organization. Our e-commerce business is growing double digits, I think north of 20%. And then, you know, the other area, Peter, is, you know, tissue is performing very strongly, both on the consumer side and on the professional side, and we feel great about, you know, the performance there. So, And overall for the year, I know you probably want to talk a little bit about promotions, but I think we expect our pricing overall for the year to be about relatively flat. And so, again, while I think it's maybe two quarters or a little softer than what we're used to, we do expect to improve our performance in North America.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

And just to add a couple of numbers, Peter, for you. I mean, one, keep in mind that the club distribution in diapers and training pens, it's about a point of headwind in the quarter for North America. And then also to reiterate what Mike was saying, in tissue, you know, we gained overall 20 basis points share on a weighted basis in the quarter, and that's on the heels of Two straight quarters of continued strong performance. Underlying health of the business in North America is strong, and again, we've got strong activations and innovations in the pipeline, which will continue into next year.

Peter Grom, Analyst — UBS

Great. Thank you so much. I'll pass it on.

Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations

Just add one point there. I think as you're tracking it, Peter, I think you mentioned the patterns on pricing. As you look at it, year-to-date, total company pricing is down about 70 basis points, 80 basis points in North America, and that's having lapped our least intense quarter of programming last year. If you recall, we shifted some programming from Q3 to Q4 last year. So Q3, least intense period, and we're about to lap our most intense, you know, prior year period of programming in Q4. So as Mike said, when you think about the year, we'll probably land with pricing, you know, relatively flat. So you kind of get on a sequential basis a little bit, you know, of a pickup in terms of, you know, what that pricing profile looks like.

Peter Grom, Analyst — UBS

That's super helpful, guys. Thanks so much.

Operator

All right. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Michael, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Michael Lavery, Analyst — Piper Sandler

Thank you. Good morning. I just want to come back to, Ken, your excitement over the deal is clear, and just want to see if you can help us understand a little bit better how to think about some of the brand's health momentum. You know, they've... Obviously, it's been a little quieter since the deal was announced, but you guys have been working with them closely. Can you just maybe give us a sense of maybe, first of all, some of if or how their brand building framework that they used, how it compares to yours? Similarities or differences there might be, and just how to think about the opportunity for the organic growth, because I think some of the cost savings potential feels a bit more straightforward, but I know there's also a real focus on just building that top line momentum. Can you help us understand how you see those building blocks there, and maybe some of your take on the recent color from their side?

Mike Hsu, CEO

Yeah, okay, Michael, great question. I will tell you, I will give you a little color. Just recognize it's day three for me officially, so I'm going to try to give you a little more context for how the brands are doing. I will tell you, your overall question, and I think I said this a little bit earlier, a lot of the challenges that they've had over the past few years have been... In my mind, 100% executional, and I don't think I've found any that I perceive as being structural yet, right? And so, but I do, what I will say is, I think Kirk... And the leadership team at Kenview did a phenomenal job pivoting when Kirk got in that chair. And I think this goes back to it, and this is where Kirk and I bonded because we were kind of trained by the same people, and so we have a similar philosophy on how you support brands. And so I think Kirk made a lot of big moves to strengthen the execution. One of the most important was at the beginning of January, he flipped the operating model, which matches almost exactly with ours, which is why we've been able to so seamlessly move to the new org structure on Monday, first thing, and we're operating in the new model. I will tell you, I'm encouraged with Kenview's Q3 performance. As you guys probably saw, Organic was up about three, and we're seeing some positive momentum. I think there is plenty moving in the right direction. And maybe I'll note a few things, Michael. You know, OTC overall, you know, I think is performing well in my book. Tylenol for the year, I think up somewhere between low to mid-single digit, I think, which is a great rebound. I think in the quarter, it was up about 70 bps of share. Also in OTC, Nick Ritt is up about 7% year-to-date. Zyrtuk up 5% year-to-date. Love the advertising. They're doing a drive kind of category expansion with Sanjay Patia. And then I would say overall hair, very good. Rogaine, surprisingly, I didn't know this, Michael, but, you know, it may be driven by some GLP adoption, GLP-1 adoption. So Rogaine's up 30% year-to-date. OGX, the shampoo is also performing very well. And then in essential care, you know, the baby brands are up about 5% year-to-date, Band-Aid. Which is a great Halloween giveaway, is up 4% year-to-date. And so I think there is plenty moving in the right direction. Again, what's driving it? And this kind of reflects maybe a personnel choice I made more recently. You know, North America, it's clear. Carlos and I also have very similar training, and he's very focused on the core aspects of execution, which, you know, DPSM is the shorthand, which is distribution, pricing, shelving, and merchandising, and focusing on execution, which I think, Michael, Have been a little bit off of the focus area. Kenview in the past, and I think we are seeing really, you know, that kind of performance is really driven by, you know, better fundamental execution across all those levers. I think we're not out of the woods yet, and so the areas that we got to improve, you know, I would say they're stabilizing, but there's plenty of work left to be done. Skincare was down just a little bit under a point year-to-date, you know, and that's versus a category that's up about four. Um, and again, I think the team has taken steps to improve execution there. I think medium term, and this is my perspective, and it still needs to be worked through the team. Uh, I think it's about resetting the assortment. I do think, you know, there's some extensions that we've done with some of the brands that, uh, you know, will require a reset over time. And, and, uh, you know, the other area for me and John Halverson knows this, and he's going to, he's totally up to the task. And I was just with him. The agency is a couple. We've got to improve the creative execution, and I'm looking, you know, while, you know, in skin care, the marketing investment is fine and it's competitive with the category, I think there's room to increase our investment there. And then the other area is oral care. Listerine, year-to-date down about two points. You know, for me, and this is my... opinion, which is I think we need to simplify and clarify the offering and the key benefits for the consumer. Given the leadership share position that we have, I mean, you know, very, very strong leadership position in the category. You know, for me, it should be similar to what we've been doing with Kleenex and Depend and Poise, which is focused advertising on expanding penetration frequency of the category. And so that's kind of the, you know, the focus area for us. Beyond that, Michael, I would say longer term, there's a lot more headroom in these categories than I originally thought when we made the initial announcement. It's going to take some time to get there. We're not going to take shortcuts. We will build through the fundamentals, and so what you'll probably see in 27 is a little bit of a conservative approach that we reflected in our 2027-28 outlook. We want to create the room to accelerate investments and get the brands in a better position to grow.

Michael Lavery, Analyst — Piper Sandler

That would be really helpful. Thanks for that, Connor.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Okay, and Chris tells me to tell you that we're going to share more at Cagney.

Michael Lavery, Analyst — Piper Sandler

Okay, sounds good.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Chris Carey from Wells Fargo. Chris, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Chris Carey, Analyst — Wells Fargo

Hi, good morning, everybody. First, Mike, just can you talk about the team's ability to deliver on this integration and synergies while continuing kind of operational excellence on the legacy Kimberly Clark business with, you know, a key leader leaving in Russ Torres? And how you're backfilling and making sure that you don't, you know, miss a beat. That would be question number one. Just love some context on that. And then for Nelson, when you say mid-single-digit dilution for 2027, just to be clear about this, are earnings down mid-single digits in 2027, then snapback? That's my interpretation, which I think is what you're saying, but I'd just like to confirm that. And then within that, can you just talk about the treatment around, you know, amortization going forward in the non-GAAP numbers and what's reflected in the outlook for 2027 and going into 2028? Thanks so much.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Okay, all right, thanks for the question. Let me start with the team. Look, I feel great about our leadership team, and I think we're really well positioned to deliver generational value. You may know that, I may have mentioned this before, but we did detail assessments on every leadership team member for both Kenview and KC kind of going in as I selected the staff. I think Nelson told me he spent seven hours being assessed. We took a very detailed approach, and we used outside experts to kind of help us do that. So I feel very good about the talent that we have in the room and the selections. You know, certainly, you know, I guess I will say, first and foremost, I'm excited for Russ and his new adventure. And I think not knowing that much about that business, but I think they found a good one, right? And so I'm excited for him. I would tell you his departure probably reflects a change in timing for both of us. You know, it should be clear to all of you that within KC, we were on a path of transition. But when we had the opportunity to create this, I would say, you know, combination that would create generational value, I think the timing for me changed and the timing for Russ changed. And so, you know, you're only going to have this time of your life once, right? And so I'm excited for him. I will tell you, parenthetically, I love being more directly involved in all assets. Aspects of the business. I'm not sure the team enjoys that as much, but, you know, it's kind of more akin to what I'm used to doing, and so I think hopefully, you know, that will have, you know, a positive impact. Let me tell you, the IMO is in great hands with Jeff Malucci, who put a lot of this deal together, steering the process, and then Nelson, who you would really want tracking and making sure that the teams are ensuring synergy delivery, which lines up with. Financial delivery anyways. The big note that I should point out is we had transitioned about 60 days ago from an IMO-led implementation of the Synergy delivery to a... I would say ELT-led, right? So each of the ELT members or enterprise leadership team members, whether they're a business unit owner or a functional owner, are accountable for delivery versus kind of a group in the center. But Nelson's going to oversee that. So, again, I feel very good about where we are at the team, and I feel great about the people we have on the team. Yeah, and then...

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

Chris, go on with your questions around the modeling and the outlook we gave when we announced the transaction. First, all comparisons are against KC standalone. That's the first bid. We will come out with proformas and all that in more detail as we get into reporting actual results for full year 26. And put that forth so that then we can start comparing that in that way. So when we talked about mid-single-digit dilution and then snapping back, that's exactly it. So for 2027, that's what we would expect. But that is against a standalone Kimberly-Clark EPS. That would, of course, be reflective of the fact that we would have the amortization of the intangible acids. And going to that, the treatment around amortization is, as you remember, Kenview was adjusting out their portion of amortization of these assets. We don't. It's not in our policy, so we actually will keep that within our non-GAAP metrics. So that's the element that's there for modeling purposes. And we have that reflected also in the latest performance that we filed as part of the recent debt issuance. Then as we step into 2028, what's going to happen is we expect to have a year that's on algorithm on a two-year compounded basis, which would be in the, you know, mid to high single-digit EPS growth on a compounded basis, two years versus the baseline of 2026 standalone KC.

Chris Carey, Analyst — Wells Fargo

Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.

Operator

Okay. Thank you. Thank you. Your next question is coming from Javier Escalante from Evercore. Javier, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Javier Escalante Manzo, Analyst — Evercore

Hello. Good morning, everyone, and congratulations on completing the merger. I would like to double-click on diapers, if I may, both in the U.S. and China. How is your diaper business performing outside club? What is the competitive dynamic overall? What we see in Serkana is these Chinese diapers are leveling off and wonder whether that opens up an opportunity to restart a premiumization cycle after two years of promos. And number two on China, I know that it's 11-11. Social commerce is a big deal there. How are you using this to build trust? Any early reads on equity? How the messaging is landing? I know that you said that the recovery is going to take time, but tell us how you're dealing with this, and I have a follow-up, if I may. Thank you. Yeah.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Okay. Thanks for the question, Javier. Great to hear from you. Look, I feel great about overall diaper business. I know, you know, it's been a choppy couple quarters, but when you... You know, I think when you take one of the best performing businesses we have in the world and chop it by 70%, you know, it's going to affect the business. But I would say the underlying kind of strength of the products, I would say. You know, the performance relative to the competition of the product, I think we feel great about, and then the innovation pipeline that we have. So we've got a proven strategy to elevate and expand the category to your point, right? And that's what we're going to continue driving. We know how to win in the most competitive markets in the world, especially China. And so our playbook is to drive that innovation that grows categories, delivers superior value propositions. across all value tiers. You know, our strategy internally is really, Javier, best product at the lowest possible cost, right? And then, you know, when we do that, you know, that creates the room to invest in building brand love and driving, you know, really compelling activation. I'd say in, I'll start with North America, I think, you know, I'd say we've seen, you know, solid performance in North America over the last few years. We've gained share two years in a row leading up into this year, despite increasingly intense, I would say, promotional environment. I think we feel like we have the best innovation agenda that we've had in a very long time. To your point, I would say premiumization, you know, You know, continues to create some tailwinds. Just for reference, I think when I joined the company, I think we were about 30% of our business overall was premium. You know, today we're well over 85%. So I think what you articulated around driving premium mix through, you know, offerings that offer that better performance for consumers. It's the core of our strategy. I think we have seen over the past few years, you know, the entry of some lower priced, you know, diapers, a lot of it coming from China. You know, our attitude is, well, we've been, you know, we compete with 200 diaper brands in China. We've been beating them. And so we feel confident we can beat them here. And so for us, our approach is, hey, let's make sure that our value propositions are sharp and that we continue to bring the innovation. And so, you know, we have things like HugFit 360 overnight. We're excited about, you know, one that will prevent diaper rash more specifically that we'll be launching in the first quarter. So we've got a lot of great news. I would say, as you point out in the U.S., The majority of our share decline in U.S. baby care was driven by distribution changes in club, which, you know, we're working through. I would say if you look outside of it, Javier, overall across BCC or baby and child care, you know, more broadly, our share is overall slightly up. And so we feel, you know, good about where that is, but we're going to stay focused on executing our playbook. I'll pivot to China. You know, just to kind of give you all the context, the Chinese authorities refuted the false allegations that were, you know, and they declared that Huggies were safe, and so that was really important. SAMR, the authority that had jurisdiction there, confirmed the quality and safety of our products, and I will tell you they were very complimentary of how our teams engaged with them through the whole discovery process. At this point, Javier, demand is stabilized. I'd say it's improved slightly, but recovery is going to take time because here's what I've learned, which is, like, bad news goes viral and good news does not, right? And what that means is, like, then we have to build, put the good news out ourselves, and that's going to take a little time, right? But, again, as I told it. The team in Shanghai, like, if there's any team that knows how to do it, it's that team, right? And so, again, we're focused on rebuilding consumer trust. You know, we're elevating transparency directly with consumers. I think we have a glass box look into our production facilities for consumers to look at. And then, you know, regular updates on they can see kind of the quality coming off the line. And so I think we feel great about that innovation. And so I think there's probably no team I'm more confident in than our China team, and I think the long-term health of our China business, I'm excited about diapers specifically, but I'm also excited about how the China team, together with the Kenview team, will build the Kenview brands in China as well.

Javier Escalante Manzo, Analyst — Evercore

This leak will pass, I guess. I interrupted you. Go ahead.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

I was just going to say, you asked specifically on 11-11, I mean, that's upon us here, so the reality, Javi, is that, you know, it's going to take some time, and 11-11 is already, if you were pipelining and creating everything, that already went through, so I, it's something that, as the news came out, it was right upon us, and, you know, we still expect the business to be subdued in the fourth quarter, because of Before we're at in the timing of when the government came out with the wrestles favorable to us. But again, we will take the time. We will make the right investments in order to make sure that, you know, Huggies gets back to its rightful place in China. And as a reminder, right before this, we were right around 20 percent leadership, number one gaining share for five years straight at about 200 basis points a year in our business in diapers in China. And we're absolutely focused in making sure that we regain that.

Javier Escalante Manzo, Analyst — Evercore

Thank you, man. And in the spirit of my comment of making the merger boring, right, if you can help us, because there has been a lot of detail here, in a very simple narrative, how do you see the sequence of the synergy plan in 2027? So, the way that I think of it in my head, perhaps, is how you preserve the low-hanging fruit in terms of ribbing the synergies. What are you going to be tackling in terms of cost? Is it cost? And kind of like, in a very simple way, you know, this is what

Mike Hsu, CEO

We start with a higher level, and then Nelson and I, but Chris wants me to make sure that I say, Javier, more a Cagney, okay? Okay, good. But number one, I'll just say, here's how we're thinking about it. Again, I'm kind of a boring person, and so I don't like drama as we operate the business, and so, you know, I think we have a very well-thought-out plan. I mean, we announced the leadership team back in April, and then the next few levels. You know, several months ago, and so the teams had plenty of time to think through this. You know, maybe part one is there are going to be significant staffing changes, and this is the unfortunate work of kind of combining companies, but, you know, there are going to be staffing changes throughout 2027, and we feel very good about our plans there, and I think our teams know, you know, are very familiar with what those are, and so that's part one. Part two is... I think, you know, maybe primarily on Nelson's teams, you know, we're going to run separate systems for a while, and then we will gradually bring them in because KC happens to have very robust, the latest SAP S4 ERP systems for both North America and then a separate instance for the international business. And so we'll, over time... You know, in a phased way, bringing the Kenview businesses onto those platforms as we bring the KC businesses forward on those. And so in the meantime, I think it's on Nelson's team to kind of cobble together a reporting. I guess they're using Power BI, you know, Javier, to kind of do that. But, again, that will give us, I think, the visibility we need to manage in the interim. But, you know, I think we have a very planful approach to deliver the synergy. Not sure if Chris agrees with me saying this now, but, you know, I feel very good about where we are in the synergy plan and, you know, sitting in my chair, as you would expect that I would say, but I think we will beat the synergies that we've talked about publicly.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

And how do you think? I mean, obviously, we've been and we've been providing updates over the last 12 months. We've been very diligent in our process of looking at the synergies through the IMO, the segments and the functions and getting ready for day one, which was earlier this week. And we, as I said earlier, I mean, we're on track with our plans. Again, the overall cost synergies for the deal are about $1.9 billion, and there's three sources that are very clear to us. I mean, one is the overheads optimization, G&A. That will drive about a third. And that is already incorporating, eliminating, you know, certain roles, which is part of having to do a transaction like this. It's leveraging spans and layers of controls across the organization. And then there's a series of non-people costs, including systems, which we are progressively going to be tackling. It's starting now, and that's very clearly laid out. The second bucket is in costs of goods sold. And that's going to be closer to 40% of the overall, give or take, so between 30% to 40% of the synergies. And we have clear plans with Tamara and our organization around optimizing our distribution network and leveraging procurement capabilities to drive savings from starting now. And then the third bucket is in sales and marketing and trade spend optimization. Very clear plans on that. Obviously, tackling duplication of roles, but also around leveraging media synergies and optimizing trade spend. So all of that is very carefully planned, and it'll be orchestrated and executed, starting executing it now as we begin, you know, the first week of the merger of the two organizations. We'll provide more details when we get to Cagney, Javi, and obviously one of the things that we've talked about earlier this year is we're encouraged by Canview having taken a proactive approach. At the end of the first quarter, getting some of these organizational changes underway, which accelerates some of those synergies into 2026 and give us a good head start as we go into next year. We'll provide an update of the cadence of how those savings will come through, but some of that has already been materialized this year.

Javier Escalante Manzo, Analyst — Evercore

Awesome. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Anna Lizelle from Bank of America. Anna, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Anna Lizel, Analyst — Bank of America

Hi. Good morning. Thank you so much for the question. I was wondering if you could elaborate specifically on your launch of Big Dreams and Diapers, and where do you see this competing in the landscape? What are your aspirations for this brand specifically? And then if I can ask a bigger picture question on cost, you know, clearly free, a bigger headwind. How should we think about that in terms of some of the heightened costs, but in light of the benefits you're also seeing from the Arbex JV on input costs? Thank you.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Okay. Hey, thanks for the question, Anna. Yeah, maybe just a comment. You know, we're really excited about Big Dreams, and that's something, you know, I think for those who may not have the context that we've launched, you know, with Amazon, in partnership with Amazon, you know, I think, you know, the team at Amazon is very, very excited about the product. I think we've put together a fantastic quality product that, you know, I think has, you know, with the attributes, you know, with our knowledge of the diaper category, we kind of know what consumers are looking for. And I think the unique thing there on us, you know, we want to make sure we're offering a very, very strong value proposition, particularly, I would say, you know, for, I would say, middle to lower income consumers. One thing that I'll emphasize is... I know we saw maybe a few years ago, several years ago, maybe the prospects for what everybody calls this case-shaped scenario of an economy, and so we're really, I would say, steeled or focused to be able to operate effectively in that kind of environment. And so for us, we've been emphasizing, hey, how do we bring the best of our innovation into more value-oriented offerings? And, you know, again, that's kind of why we're looking to drive low cost in our production so that we can afford to do that. And so this is another example of that, you know, on, you know, within the Huggies brand, we did something similar bringing, I would say, our latest. Core technology on diapers and launching it into our value tier first on Snug and Dry in North America about 18 months ago. And so, again, that's kind of part of our strategy, which is to adapt to the, you know, and kind of win in the K-shaped environment. And so we feel good about that. And then maybe I'll ask Nelson to comment on, you know, the inflation.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

Yeah, so, Anna, in terms of costs and where we stand today. As we provided the update back in September at the Barclays Conference, we now project the total full-year gross inflationary impacts of around $250 million, of which $50 million was an impact in the second quarter, and then for the balance of the year in the second half, we expected around $200 million of inflation. And this... A step-up of around 50 versus our prior update back in August, concurrent with our second quarter update in earnings, is largely driven by the spike that we saw in spot freight rates in North America. That number, again, remains the same. There's no change right now. The teams are doing a great job through a combination of mitigating actions that have been undertaken, as I mentioned earlier in the call today, and that includes all elements of the integrated margin management toolkit, from revenue growth management to the very strong productivity that we're delivering year-to-date. We're at 6.1% gross productivity, 5.8% for the third quarter, so those programs will continue, and obviously the always-on cost. As it relates to Arbex, I mean, we're very pleased with, you know, the stand-up of the joint venture, which went live July 1st. The Arbex management team and Suzano, our partner, and along with ourselves, we're very focused on unlocking strong value creation, which will entail very proactive measures around cost containment, cost management, and driving productivity, and we're taking full advantage of that. So that's underway. We will be providing a full update on our view for 2027 when we get to that in February of next year. But again, we remain very disciplined in our approach to managing costs and managing, you know, over the... Over the time of the business to ensure that we deliver pricing at a cost, at least neutral, which is our philosophy that's been in place for many years now.

Anna Lizel, Analyst — Bank of America

Great. Very helpful. Thank you.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Thanks, Anna.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question is coming from Robert Moscow from TD Callum. Robert, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Robert Moscow, Analyst — TD Cowen

Hey, thanks for the question. And maybe you're going to give more details at Cagney. But, you know, the revenue synergy target was the one that struck a lot of people as the most ambitious. They are notoriously, you know, difficult to execute. And it seemed to involve a lot of international expansion of brands that had not traveled into these different regions in the past. So are your first impressions the same? Do you still see the same kind of opportunity? And what are the first steps for enabling that, Mike? Maybe you could talk a little more on that.

Mike Hsu, CEO

Yeah, thanks for the question, Rob. Again, and maybe, I'm not sure, Chris, if I had to do it over again, maybe I wouldn't have put revenue synergies out there, you know, because I think what I'm hearing from investors is, well, we don't care until you put them into the algorithm, okay, which I think is fair enough, right? And so, however, sitting in my shoes, Rob, I think we will deliver more over time, but I wouldn't write that down because I think it ultimately has to make its way into the growth algorithm, right? So that's part one, but I'd say in the medium term or short term, you know, I would say it's what you say, which is like there's some obvious distribution gaps. We had a large KC personal care business in Europe probably about a decade ago, but we had a tough time in that business. I think Kenview brings... I think a lot stronger distribution and capability in Europe than we ever had. Similarly, in India, you know, we used to be in a joint venture with Unilever where that got us very good distribution. And when that agreement ended, you know, I think we've struggled since. And so, you know, Canview has a multi-hundred million dollar business there. They're in about 3.1. A million points of distribution in India, and I think, you know, that's a market that I think are, you know, the KC personal care brands, you know, can make an impact in. And so I think there's going to be some obvious, I would say, you know, geographic distribution opportunities that while, you know, we've struggled in the past, you know, I think there are some capabilities that are different. The flip of it is the same. You know, within, you know, Kenview, you know, they've got a relatively, I would say, a smaller business in markets like Mexico and Korea, where we are, you know, over a billion dollars in both those businesses just on the KC side. And so I think, again, we feel like that there's some pretty good opportunity. Longer term, And again, maybe there's a misnomer in terms of what's a synergy. There's really two buckets of what we're calling synergies. There's like integration synergy, which tends to be the smaller amount, right, in my mind, because what we haven't articulated as well, and this is probably my fault, Rob, is like there's a lot more transformation opportunity, right? And the thing is, You know, KC, I would say we're still in the early innings of our transformation. I'd say like the third inning. And I think Ken Hughes earlier in that process. And so a lot of what I guess I'm miscalling synergy is really transformation opportunity. But what we're seeing is there's a lot of category growth, category development opportunity that hasn't, you know, there's still an opportunity for us to market more effectively. And again, maybe the example I'll give you if you think about. On the KC side, what we've been doing with Kleenex, what we've been doing with Poison Append, which is advertising to expand category consumption, penetration, frequency. And, by the way, on the Kenview side, they're seeing great results. The reason why allergy or Zyrtec is up this year is because they've shifted that to that strategy at the beginning of this year, and I think it's really working effectively. I mean, the facts are, which is shocking, less than 20 percent of the population that suffers from seasonal allergies ever treats it. And so kind of that's the insight that we're going after. And so that's kind of why we have a lot of conviction. And I would just say what the growth is going to be.

Robert Moscow, Analyst — TD Cowen

Okay. And just to be clear, when you gave that $1.9 billion number, were you talking about transformation opportunity also, or two different things?

Mike Hsu, CEO

Well, I would probably say... Nelson, I mean, some of it's pure synergy stuff, but some of it is more efficiency that we saw. So I think it was a blended number. But the 1.9 is cost.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

That does not have anything related to revenue synergies, Robin. As you remember, I mean, it was minimal in terms of the operating profit or EBIT that we would see out of the revenue synergies in what we valued, because we reinvested close to 60% in our modeling in the S4. Yes, it was $1.4 billion in revenue, but only $200 million in EBIT contributions. Next, right. Because of the reinvestment of around $300 million. So when I talk about the synergies, it's really going to be on the $19 billion, which is the costs. Rob, that's what we're focused on.

Mike Hsu, CEO

And Rob, maybe just, sorry to keep adding stuff, but I would say, hey, maybe, and this is a topic that investors bring up. Hey, Mike, is this a cost play or is it a growth play? And my attitude on, no, this is a flywheel play, meaning like, you know, the whole goal is we're getting costs out so that we can reinvest in the brands to grow the brands faster. And so that's our model of power and care that we feel, you know, really strong conviction about that's been working for us. I know we can always improve our execution, and we're going to do that, but that's kind of what we're doing with this whole transformation with both companies. And that's how we doubled, over the last five years, our absolute advertising spend, because we applied that flywheel as we ran through power and care and the whole transformation of the portfolio.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

So that's the playbook that we're going to have as the combined company gets underway this week.

Robert Moscow, Analyst — TD Cowen

Okay. Thank you very much.

Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations

Great. If we can take one more question.

Operator

Thank you. Your final question is coming from Susan Anderson from Canaccord Genuity. Susan, your line is live. Please go ahead.

Susan Anderson, Analyst — Canaccord Genuity

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my question, and thanks for all the details this morning. I was wondering if maybe you can just give some color, maybe I missed it, on just where retailer inventories are at with your brands and categories, and then also including the CanView brands. I think some of the competitors talked about a weaker start to cold cough, which impacted retailer orders, I guess. Are you seeing something similar with Kim View's OTC brands with inventory at retail, and then just how you're feeling about your other categories as well, going into the back half thing?

Mike Hsu, CEO

Well, this is a great question since Nelson and I just looked at the retail inventory by geography at Kenview last Thursday. I mean, I think it's kind of normal to within the range of what they've been carrying for the last few years. And so we feel good about that. I think there have been some changes on our side. You know, I would say retailers have, you know, inventory has compressed a bit. I do think With a couple of big customers, there have been some changes in inventory strategy and inventory technology that's driven by that. But again, I think in general, I would say the retail inventory headwinds that we've experienced this year tends to be timing related. And so our underlying demand, I'll tell you, we feel it remains healthy.

Nelson Urdaneta, CFO

Yeah, and I would just add, I mean, two things. One, in North America for this year, it's going to represent, you know, close to about a point of growth, and that's what we have for us, for KC standalone. As we go into KENDU, as Mike said, I mean, we've been looking at the data. We're obviously joining forces as we speak. We'll go through the integration, and we'll see what those levels are, and, you know, there obviously could be some changes and adjustments, but the one thing is we're going to be focusing on service levels, and as service levels improve and whatnot, there will be further optimization in inventories, and obviously, this is one of the places where, as we get into the integration with our supply chain team, and we... The ploy can access in some of the tools that we've got. That should drive optimization over time. But again, more to come on that as we get underway with the integration.

Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations

Great.

Peter Grom, Analyst — UBS

Well, thanks, everybody, for joining us.

Chris Jakubik, Head of Investor Relations

If, you know, analysts have any further follow-up questions, you know, myself and my team will be available to take them. But thanks, everybody, for tuning in today.

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time and have a wonderful day. Thank you once again for your participation.