Probabilities Fund Management, LLC
Regulatory profile
From Form ADV, the SEC filer profile, 13D/13G type codes and N-CEN, never from the name.
Portfolio style
Measured from the filed 13F common-share book for Dec 31, 2021, never from the firm's own description.
Closest benchmark: the Nasdaq-100 as of 2021-12-31, active share 93.7%; sector active share 59.8% against the combined 13F book's sector weights.
Over time 8 measured quarters
How the bands are measured
Style bands measure the filed 13F common-share book each closed quarter, tested in this order. Unknown: under $10,000,000 of valued equity or 5 stocks. Index-like (100+ stocks): active share of 20% or less against the closest benchmark, which is the S&P 500, S&P MidCap 400, S&P SmallCap 600, Russell 1000, Russell 2000, Nasdaq-100 or Dow Jones Industrial Average (weighted by an index-tracking fund's reported holdings or the index's constituents nearest the quarter end, over the names resolved to companies, and only when those are 90%+ of its weight) or every 13F filer's combined book, or index series holding 80%+ of the registered fund assets it advises (N-CEN) and equal to 50%+ of its book. Systematic-like: 500+ stocks, 100%+ annual turnover and a top 10 weight of 25% or less. Concentrated: a top 10 weight of 60%+ or 12 or fewer effective positions. Diversified active: none of these. Turnover is the smaller of buys and sells over average equity value, summed over four quarters: low under 30%, high 100%+. Horizon is the value-weighted number of quarters each position has been held: short under 4, long 12+.
Clone Performance
Build a hypothetical price-return history from this filer's public 13F holdings.
View clone backtestPortfolio Concentration
11 tracked positions · as of Dec 31, 2021 · Δ vs Sep 30, 2021Portfolio Trend
Sector Breakdown
As of Dec 31, 2021| Sector | % Portfolio | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Unclassified | 87.8% | $24,673,111 |
| Technology | 6.8% | $1,919,859 |
| Real Estate | 3.9% | $1,104,222 |
| Consumer Defensive | 1.5% | $407,575 |
Last Quarter's Activity
Export CSVAdded To
Positions the filer increasedTrimmed
Positions the filer reduced| Ticker | Company | Δ Shares | Shares | Value | Open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPXL | Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares | −5,590 | 18,610 | $2,668,860 | |
| TQQQ | ProShares UltraPro QQQ | −5,510 | 15,790 | $2,626,350 | |
| UDOW | ProShares UltraPro Dow30 | −5,400 | 31,740 | $2,685,521 | |
| DIA | Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust | −1,560 | 14,970 | $5,438,900 | |
| VOO | VANGUARD 500 INDEX FUND | −1,370 | 12,800 | $5,588,096 | |
| QQQ | Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1 | −1,360 | 14,240 | $5,665,384 | |
| IIPR | Innovative Industrial Properties Inc | −1,000 | 4,200 | $1,104,222 | |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | −360 | 1,400 | $248,598 | |
| No positions match the current search. | |||||
New Positions
Positions the filer opened this quarterSold Out
Positions the filer fully exited| Ticker | Company | Type | Shares | Value (USD) | % of Portfolio | History |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QQQ |
Invesco Qqq Trust, Series 1
|
Reduced | 14,240 | $5,665,384 | 20.16% | |
| VOO |
VANGUARD 500 INDEX FUND
|
Reduced | 12,800 | $5,588,096 | 19.88% | |
| DIA |
Spdr Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust
|
Reduced | 14,970 | $5,438,900 | 19.35% | |
| UDOW |
ProShares UltraPro Dow30
|
Reduced | 31,740 | $2,685,521 | 9.56% | |
| SPXL |
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X Shares
|
Reduced | 18,610 | $2,668,860 | 9.50% | |
| TQQQ |
ProShares UltraPro QQQ
|
Reduced | 15,790 | $2,626,350 | 9.34% | |
| MSFT |
Microsoft Corp
Technology
|
Held | 3,720 | $1,251,110 | 4.45% | |
| IIPR |
Innovative Industrial Properties Inc
Real Estate
|
Reduced | 4,200 | $1,104,222 | 3.93% | |
| AMAT |
Applied Materials Inc
Technology
|
Held | 2,670 | $420,151 | 1.49% | |
| STZ |
Constellation Brands, Inc.
Consumer Defensive
|
Held | 1,624 | $407,575 | 1.45% | |
| AAPL |
Apple Inc.
Technology
|
Reduced | 1,400 | $248,598 | 0.88% |
Covers the securities this platform tracks: U.S.-listed common stock and the put/call positions reported on it. A 13F can also report security types outside that coverage — preferred shares, bonds, warrants, untracked share classes — so the filing's own declared total can exceed the figures above. The source filing is linked at the top of this table.