Creative Realities, Inc. Q1 FY2023 Earnings Call

Good morning. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Creative Realities, Inc. First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. This call will be recorded and a copy will be available on the company's website at cri.com following the completion of the call. The company has prepared remarks summarizing the interim results, along with additional industry and company update. Joining me on the call today is Rick Mills, CEO; and Will Logan, CFO. Thank you very much. Mr. Logan, you may begin.

Thanks Lydia. Good morning. This is Will Logan, Chief Financial Officer of Creative Realities, Inc. Welcome to our financial results and earnings call for the three months ended March 31st, 2023. I would like to take this opportunity to remind you that our remarks today will include forward-looking statements. The words anticipated, will, believes, expects, intends, plans, estimates, projects, should, may, propose, and similar expressions or their negative versions as they relate to us or our management are intended to identify forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those contemplated by these forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause these results to differ materially are set forth in our quarterly financial statements on Form 10-Q to be filed with the SEC later today, May 15th, 2023, and in our annual report on Form 10-K filed with the SEC on March 30th, 2023. Any forward-looking statements that we make on this call are based on assumptions as of today and we undertake no obligation to update these statements as a result of new information or future events. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures is included in our public filings and in our earnings release that was released earlier this morning. It is now my pleasure to introduce Rick Mills, CEO of Creative Realities, Inc.

Thanks Will. Good morning, everybody. Thanks for joining the call. What a great quarter. Our Q1 2023 revenue of $9.9 million includes a record first-quarter gross profit of $5.1 million and a record first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $960,000. This is on the heels of our recent fiscal 2022 earnings call where we announced record revenue last year of $43.3 million and record adjusted EBITDA of $3.8 million for last year. We believe our first quarter results continue to demonstrate the ongoing growth in our revenue as this is the fifth consecutive quarter for which our revenue has approximated or exceeded $10 million, benefiting from increasing our record recurring revenue. Notably, we had previously communicated that annual recurring revenue is approaching a level where it covers our operating expenses, something we call the golden rule. Past this point, we project significant improvements in our adjusted EBITDA margin as every new dollar flows through to the bottom line at higher and more favorable margins. We see this in our first quarter results, where revenue mix is driving gross profit and working in conjunction with scale, driving adjusted EBITDA. In fact, though revenue for the first quarter was actually lower than the same period in 2022 by $800,000, our gross profit and adjusted EBITDA increased by over $1 million and $300,000 respectively, due primarily to the increase of $1.3 million in services revenue. It is important to understand these effects as we scale and drive SaaS-based annual recurring revenue. On our last call, we issued full-year 2023 guidance of $60 million in revenue with 2023 exit annualized run rate of $17 million in ARR and a 15% adjusted EBITDA margin. We also communicated a backlog of approximately $110 million. I'd like to reaffirm this guidance. We expect to see our business ramp up even further as we get deeper into executing on existing and new client contracts and deployments throughout 2023 and beyond. As you may recall, we had a number of other noteworthy announcements on our last call. In addition to announcing annual records for revenue and earnings, we also provided updates on significant new client contracts, which included winning an RFP for a national fast casual restaurant chain and securing an agreement to be an exclusive deployment partner for a new digital ad-supported network. We have announced an additional agreement with Starlite Media to supply and deploy up to 5,000 displays in conjunction with the expansion of that network at an initial deployment commitment valued at $2 million to CRI and approximately $50 million of additional backlog at full deployment. We also announced enhanced client engagements with Freshëns, Road Runner Sports, and others. We are still working through an announcement with the national fast casual restaurant chain and hope to be in a position to issue that in the near future. It will be worth the wait. As you can see, we have terrific momentum in the business and are seeing productivity from our business strategy. Very simply, we continue to win in the market, with a corresponding reduction in the timeline to new customer acquisition, and believe the company is uniquely situated to exploit the tremendous growth opportunities in our industry. I will turn it back over to Will for a few notes on our business activities.

Thanks Rick. We've stated previously, I want to reiterate that the next few years look to be transformational for Creative Realities from a profit standpoint. As a management team, we're excited about the inflection point the company has reached with respect to its operating leverage and remain optimistic about the results that we anticipate producing throughout the remainder of calendar year 2023 as we capitalize on expanding revenue and particularly, our ARR to drive adjusted EBITDA free cash flow and bottom-line results. As we discussed on our call on March 30th, we expect and continue to expect that the first half of 2023 will fare similarly to the second half of 2022 from a P&L perspective, with an anticipation of a material increase in both our revenue and profitability run rates beginning in the third quarter of 2023 and beyond, including throughout 2024 to a new level of normal for this business. The combination of continued expansion from existing customer engagements and contracts won incrementally in the current year has set the stage for the company's quarterly revenue to double from third quarter 2023 and into the foreseeable future. Our first quarter results, including revenue of approximately $10 million, are in line with our expectations as we exited 2022 and keep us on track to achieve our previously stated growth targets for the full year of 2023 for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. As we scale revenue and particularly ARR, we're positioned to drive value creation that is transformational to the profitability of our business. Management is committed to continuing to exploit this position for the benefit of its shareholders and stakeholders. A few highlights with respect to the period as of and for the three months ended March 31st, 2023. The company's cash on hand as of March 31st, 2023, increased to $3.9 million from $1.6 million as of December 31st, 2022, as a result of collections on accounts receivable and annual billings associated with our 2023 SaaS-based contracts. As of today's date, the company has $3.3 million cash on hand. With respect to our debt, the company continues to service all of its debt facilities, including two instruments, which are currently amortizing, a Reflect seller note and the 2022 term note. With respect to the currently amortizing instruments, the company has repaid approximately $1.5 million in principal on the Reflect seller note since February 2022 and approximately $1 million principal on the 2022 term note since February of this year. We've highlighted our reverse stock split on March 30th call. Effective March 27th, the company effectuated a 1:3 reverse stock split to regain compliance with the NASDAQ minimum bid rule. We believe access to the NASDAQ capital markets is necessary to bridge the gap to the continued disparity between the observed trading price for the company's shares and our intrinsic value. The financial statements for the three months ended March 31st, 2023, reflect adjustments to equity to effectuate the split. Post reverse split, the company now has 7.4 million common shares outstanding, inclusive of any insider holdings. With respect to offer to acquire shares of CRI, subsequent to the quarter end date, but prior to our interim reporting date, the company received an updated offer from Pegasus Capital Advisors to acquire all outstanding shares of the company's common stock. The proposal was for a purchase price of $2.85 per share in cash. The special committee of the company's Board of Directors is working diligently to evaluate this offer, but has not concluded that process at this time. We will update all shareholders at the appropriate time. Rick, with that, would you please provide any updates on customer acquisition activities or our previously announced customer acquisitions?

Sure, Will, thanks. Okay. Regarding new business development activity, again, I use the phrase CRI continues to win in the marketplace. We have been actively engaged in a number of discussions with many nationally recognized venues, brands, or chains. During 2023, the company has continued to receive invitations to RFPs with total deployment values in excess of $10 million. Since the beginning of 2022, CRI has a win rate in excess of 80% on a dollar value basis for all RFPs in which we participate. We look forward to winning more this year. Some updates on other previous announcements that we made. We remain in advanced discussions on two additional engagements via a partner relationship to deploy and support digital out-of-home networks in key verticals. These opportunities are similar in scale and economics to the recently announced Starlite Media contract. Should the company ultimately secure these opportunities, it would result in hardware installation, day two service, and SaaS revenues for up to a combined 2,000 locations and would add up to $32 million in our backlog with anticipated delivery over a 24 to 36-month period. Our drive-thru solution, we continue to secure commitments for our drive-thru products. In recent weeks, we've entered into discussions with two potential new drive-thru customers with plans for 300 locations each. The momentum for this product is real, and we expect to deploy up to 1,000 drive-thru locations over the next 18 months, driving both hardware and installation and incremental software subscription license revenue. To be clear, we are winning customers and closing deals in record time. Prior to COVID, our new customer acquisition timeline often exceeded 18 months. For those customers we secured in the current year, the longest conversion cycle has been six months from introduction to execution of an MSA and initial deployment. This acceleration in customer close rates and adoption of our products and services is a key driver in our optimism and expectations for this business. So, finally, let's talk about backlog. We have previously announced a backlog of approximately $110 million. Having delivered our first quarter results, our backlog remains at this historic level and we expect our backlog to grow in advance of our next earnings call. Despite continued revenue production, these results are primarily driven by previously existing customers as we have yet to begin deployment at scale for any of the recently announced key customer wins. As a reminder, our calculation of backlog is comprised of the anticipated rollout of projects as indicated by our current customers under contract, and includes all revenues that would be received by the company by deploying the products and services necessary to service these projects and includes projected revenues that are not currently subject to binding purchase orders or commitments.

Yes. Thanks Rick. Historically, we have provided an overview on this call of our financial results for the year. Those results were published this morning in our earnings release report, which included the condensed consolidated balance sheet as of March 31st, 2023, along with the condensed consolidated statement of operations and statement of cash flows for the three months ended the same date, as well as a detailed reconciliation of net income to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA. Regarding the results for the three months ended March 31st, 2023, we note that the MD&A section of our interim report on Form 10-Q, which will be published later today, provides that reviewed financial information. In the interest of time and in light of the insights and comments provided earlier in this call, as opposed to reacting to those numbers on this call, we will move to the Q&A portion of the call.

Thank you. Now, the first question is from Brian Kinstlinger with Alliance Global Partners. Your line is open.

Hi, good morning guys. Thanks for taking my question. I joined a few minutes late, so sorry if I rehash certain aspects. But you've had tons of success early success with our drive-thru product, I know you just talked about it as well. Are you seeing more brands in the drive-thru fast casual coming to you? Are you increasing your outreach? Just take us through the market dynamics now as you're becoming a meaningful player in this space.

Thank you for joining the call and for your question. First, I should mention that our outreach has significantly increased. Over the past 12 to 18 months, we have added sales resources, which has allowed us to connect with many fast-growing QSR drive-thrus. Additionally, there is considerable pressure on brands with drive-thrus to enhance their throughput and accuracy. Even improving throughput by just a few seconds per order can have a substantial positive impact on profitability. Therefore, the industry is focused on becoming as efficient as possible, which often involves digital transformation. I hope this information is helpful.

Great. And then maybe talk about the challenges in the economy right now. How they plan to deploy? Do they want to limit their capital investment early on? Just talk about the factors that weigh into them accepting product and beginning these projects?

Everyone is understandably concerned about cash expenditures. However, in most instances, the return on investment for digital investments is typically less than 12 months. For projects like inside store improvements and drive-thrus, the ROI may extend to around 14 or 15 months at most. Nonetheless, the return is quick and achievable. Additionally, we offer drive-thru operators an operational expense model, allowing them to pay for it from their operational expense ROI funds, similar to a leasing program. We have a financial partner that supports this structure, so we have these two options available.

Yes, Brian, we believe that quick-service restaurants and retail are experiencing significant transformations on their own. This is beneficial for our business because these models are necessitating changes, adoption of digital technologies, and operational improvements to remain competitive in the current market.

Great. I've asked this in previous quarters, but you have a significant backlog. Could you discuss your supply chain and your ability to accommodate customers if they decide to increase their shipment requests? Please explain how this relates to your business, considering your balance sheet and the current supply chain situation.

I will address the first part of your question. Supply chain issues are no longer a concern for us. There are a few minor elements that affect our custom store business for one-off flagship projects. However, for the standard rollout across multiple locations, we have effectively managed any supply challenges ahead of time. Additionally, in the first and second quarters, we have been hiring key personnel, which has contributed to our slight growth. We expect our revenue to double in the third quarter, as we have been consistently achieving approximately $10 million per quarter over the last five quarters and anticipate maintaining that in Q2. In Q3, we expect a significant increase in revenue and gross margin, aiming for around $20 million per quarter moving forward.

Yes, Brian, I would add on the supply chain side. There's a little bit of network equipment that's been hanging out there. We only have one deployment in the pipeline today that really leverages that, and it doesn't begin deploying until early third quarter, and we have line of sight and visibility and access to product ahead of that time. So, to reiterate, no real issues on supply chain. With respect to the kind of working capital question as we expand and grow, on these larger deployments in particular, we're leveraging material deposit on the hardware upfront in advance, somewhere typically anywhere between 10% and 50%, the hardware deployment often on a rolling basis. So, we're mitigating some of that gap, if you will, between accounts receivable and accounts payable. Although most of our accounts payable at this time has moved into a 60-day tranche, so we're relatively aligned between accounts receivable and accounts payable.

Great. I have a couple more questions. First, can you update us on the status of the bowling contract? Do we have signed contracts, and are we making progress? Please remind us where that stands.

Great question. Yes, 100% contracts are executed done. Product has been ordered. And so we expect to begin significant deployments starting in the month of July. It may squeeze some into June. Most likely, it's going to hit hard in July. And so we expect that alone is as much as $1.5 million a month in additional revenue, starting in Q3.

Yes. We had a major kickoff meeting with our large transaction partners late last month or earlier this month. Everything is prepared and in place. We are engaging with supportive sites and are already working on deploying them to resolve any issues in the system so that we can scale efficiently and rapidly.

Congrats. That's a long time coming for you guys. Last question I have is it sounds like your EBITDA margin clearly will be much higher than 15% in the second half of the year to get to 15% for the full year. Talk about what's the cash conversion from EBITDA to cash flow, please?

On a timeline basis or dollar value?

Yes, I mean if you generate $3 million EBITDA, will that lead to $1 million of free cash flow, $2 million? Is it breakeven on a cash basis? Just talk about that, if you will.

Over the past year, we've maintained a relatively cash flow neutral position from an operational standpoint. As we've mentioned in previous calls, we've made some additional investments into a platform conversion, especially in our showroom automotive platform. This has led us to appear somewhat more costly on both R&D and CapEx fronts than in the past and what we anticipate going forward. We expect to wrap up those projects by September and October this year, leading to a return to a more normalized CapEx level, around $1.5 million annually, particularly in software. As we move into the fourth quarter and into 2024, we anticipate that a significant portion, about 70%, of our EBITDA will start converting into cash. However, during this investment phase, we have faced some limitations on that conversion.

Okay. Thanks guys.

Thanks Brian, as always.

And our next question coming from the line of Howard Halpern with Taglich Brothers. Your line is open.

Congratulations, great quarter. Many of the questions have been asked and answered, but I have a couple more. Regarding the second half in comparison to the first half, what are your expectations, particularly concerning project deployments and the sales mix between hardware and services?

Yes, I think we've talked about, Howard, in this period of hyper growth or super growth that we're going through this year, next year that will look similarly in aggregate to what we did in 2022, which is kind of a 50/50 split, hardware and services. Certainly, as we scale beyond that and continue to grow the ARR and services base, we would expect at scale as we approach $100 million topline business that will settle in at about one-third hardware and two-thirds services, but would tell you that that's more of a 50/50 look on a full year basis this year and next year.

Okay. I just want to clarify. You expect your adjusted EBITDA margin to reach 15% to 15.9% by the fourth quarter, but not for the entire current year?

Yes, our exit run rate should exceed 15%. We're expecting that third quarter and fourth quarter to Brian's point earlier, we'll certainly exceed that clip to bring our full year to that number. And I would expect that to be a go-forward basis for 2024 with updated forward projections as we get into the second half.

Okay. And then one last one that I think I asked about last time, too. Deployment of advertisement. Now, that you're getting to scale, are customers coming to you to deploy the advertising on the screens? And what type of margin are we looking for as you are able to ramp this up over the next couple of years, the advertising portion?

So, the answer is, yes, we are in discussions with customers all the time now about helping them 'monetize' their network. Some customers want counsel and advice, others want us to be the lead partner and go and secure the ad commitments. So, it's a mixture of both.

And Howard, I would add, as we split that monetization out, there's kind of two revenue plays for the business, right? The first is incremental sales subscription revenue through the ad-based platform in order to deliver those ads, that's going to look, smell, and feel a whole lot like the ARR that exists today, something like an 80% margin basis. The actual incremental upsell opportunity if we are the ad sales agent looks probably more like 40% gross margin in the current environment, but we expect that, that would expand to 50 over time as we get some scale and a little bit more control over the networks.

Okay. Okay guys. Keep up the great work.

Appreciate the call, Howard.

Thanks Howard.

Thank you. And that completes the questions from the line today. Mr. Logan, are there any additional inquiries from Investor Relations inbox that you would like to address?

Nothing else in the IRM box today. So, with that, please let me conclude the call by thanking all of our shareholders, clients, partners, and employees for their continuing efforts, commitment, and support as we work together to transform Creative Realities into the leading brand in digital signage solutions. This concludes the Creative Realities' 2023 first quarter earnings call.

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.