Good day and welcome to the Carvana Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants will be in a listen-only mode. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mike Levin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Matt. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for joining us on Carvana's third quarter 2022 earnings conference call. Please note that this call will be simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations section of the company's corporate website at investors.carvana.com. The third quarter shareholder letter is also posted on the IR website. Additionally, we posted a set of supplemental financial tables for Q3 to assist investors in understanding the moving pieces this quarter with the consolidation of ADESA, which can be found on the Events & Presentations page of our IR website. Please note that with the full consolidation of ADESA now complete, we do not intend to provide the supplementary tables going forward. Joining me on the call today are Ernie Garcia, Chief Executive Officer; and Mark Jenkins, Chief Financial Officer. Before we start, I would like to remind you that the following discussion contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws including but not limited to Carvana's market opportunities and future financial results that involve risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here. A detailed discussion of the material factors that cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements can be found in the Risk Factors section of Carvana's most recent Form 10-K and Form 10-I for the first quarter of 2022. The forward-looking statements and risks in this conference call are based on current expectations as of today and Carvana assumes no obligation to update or revise them whether as a result of new developments or otherwise. Unless otherwise noted on today’s call, all comparisons are on a year-over-year basis. Our commentary today will include non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics for our reported results can be found in our shareholder letter issued today, a copy of which can be found on our Investor Relations website. And now with that said, I'd like to turn the call over to Ernie Garcia. Ernie?

Thanks, Mike. And thanks, everyone for joining the call. The third quarter was a quarter of strong operational progress against the difficult industry and economic backdrop. We are on track with our goals from an expense and operational efficiency standpoint, but industry demand, interest rate, and depreciation headwinds are slowing our progress on overall profitability. We made gains here, but they were slower than we would have liked. And these headwinds are likely to persist over the near term, making precise forecasting of that progress more difficult. To organize these remarks, I plan to provide our thoughts on five important questions: one, what is driving our expense and operational gains? Two, what are the key headwinds we face? And how do changes in those dynamics impact us? Three, how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? Four, what does all this mean for the near term? And five, what does it all mean for the long term? First, what is driving our expense and operational gains? In a letter, we provided a number of data points, including that we reduced expenses by about $90 million in the quarter and $360 million on an annualized basis, as well as many underlying operational metrics that are making those expense reductions possible. We're extremely proud of this progress; it is the result of an intense focus on efficiency throughout the company, in the way that we manage the business, the way that we organize and set our priorities, and the way that we execute day to day. As we have faced the changes in the economy, our industry, and in markets over the last several quarters, the people of Carvana have come together and are doing great work. We have a lot of work left to do, but we know it and we know how we're going to go about doing it. Thanks to everyone inside the company for all the hard work you're putting in. We still have a long way to go, and there are probably additional unexpected difficulties between here and the end of all this. We've got to keep our heads down and keep marching. Next, what are the key headwinds we face, and how do changes in those dynamics impact us? There are three key headwinds that we are facing right now: industry level demand, interest rate increases, and vehicle price depreciation. Let's take these one at a time. First, industry level demand. There are many data sources available to assess industry level demand, but regardless of the source, demand is slow. Industry data sources estimate new sales down approximately 10% to 15% year-over-year in the third quarter, and many of the forward-looking indicators that we use internally, including web searches and user activity on carvana.com, indicate further slowing recently. Cars are an expensive discretionary purchase that inflated much more than other goods in the economy over the last couple of years and is clearly impacting people's purchasing decisions. The good news is that historically, used cars have been a relatively resilient category. And the depressed levels of sales that we see today are similar to periods of fairly severe economic difficulty in the past, potentially suggesting that there's less medium term downside and there may be further recovery. This possibility is also supported by higher depreciation rates that should, over time, make cars more affordable again, and interest rate curves suggest that the majority of the interest rate increases are behind us. Regardless, we're building our plans around assumptions that the next year will be a difficult one for our industry and the economy as a whole. Next, interest rate increases. Interest rates have risen rapidly, with the two-year treasury, a good benchmark for automotive loans, rising 3.9% over the last year and 2.6% since 2019. In addition, credit spreads have risen about 1% in the last year. To put this in perspective for a customer utilizing financing, the moves into your current yields plus credit spreads of last year are equivalent in their impacts to the customer's monthly payment of about a $3,000 price increase. As a result, for customers using financing, cars ended the quarter at their most unaffordable point ever, despite the fact that retail prices have dropped roughly 10% this year. As benchmark interest rates, risk spreads, and market expectations for future credit performance evolve over time, we do expect those changes to impact our retail gross profit per unit and sales volumes before the market fully adjusts, which is built into our expectation that retail gross profit will move down in the fourth quarter relative to the third. Lastly, vehicle depreciation. Over the medium term, we believe vehicle depreciation is good as it is necessary to bring cars back into line with other goods in terms of cost and affordability and therefore it's healthy for volume. In the near term, it is less clear. Two key dynamics that have a big impact on retail gross profit per unit are the average spread between acquisition prices and retail prices and the rate of daily depreciation. Historically, the wholesale retail spread captures the depreciation dealers expect to see prior to selling a car, which creates stability in industry retail margins. We've seen this in action recently as depreciation rates have increased over the last few quarters and in both quarters, we saw acquisition spreads widen in a way that approximately offset. Moving forward, we expect this to continue to be the case on average, but we don't know exactly how it'll play out quarter to quarter. We've recently seen wholesale retail spreads widen further and have also seen daily depreciation rates move up meaningfully. Given these moves, our expectation for the fourth quarter is that retail gross profit will decrease relative to the third quarter. Over time, we expect this to normalize, as it historically has, but the reason volatility is making it tougher to call than it usually is. Moving on to how do we believe we are doing relative to the industry? This is a much more difficult question to answer simply with our results than it normally is given the dynamics discussed above as well as the volume impacts of our focus on profitability. We discuss much of this in the shareholder letter in a way that we hope provides some clarity and understanding, but to summarize our beliefs: regarding realized sales volumes year-over-year, we are clearly taking market share relative to the industry. Quarter-over-quarter, we are most likely not taking realized sales market share relative to the industry as a whole, but it depends on which data sources we compare to. If we use our best understanding of the differential impacts on conversion for our customers versus the average customer in the industry due to the choices we are making and setting interest rates, as well as the impacts driven by our focus on profitability, it is likely we're seeing somewhat meaningful gains in top funnel demand market share. We expect this to begin to show up in realized sales when the interest rate and general industry environment approaches more stability and when we stop further decreasing conversion to our profitability initiatives. Now heading to what this means in the near term. In the near term, our goal is clear: to march toward profitability as quickly as we can, regardless of industry level sales volumes. To achieve this, we plan to continue to rapidly reduce expenses to maintain our focus on efficiency gains throughout every area of the company and to evaluate and test what levers we should pull to maximize the number of our more profitable sales and minimize the number of less profitable sales. Lastly, I want to address the question of what this means for the long term. This is an easy question to skip in a difficult environment, but in the end, it is the most important question. Our belief is this: if we manage through the current environment as we intend to, the long term will be even brighter. All the things that define our opportunity since we started Carvana three years ago when the environment felt very different are still true today. Nothing focuses us like difficulty; the last several quarters have undoubtedly been difficult. The next couple may be as well. While it's never fun being in the middle of challenging times, if we use the clarity and focus to provide, we will emerge stronger on the other side of it. That is our intention to continue pushing forward. Mark.

Thank you, Ernie. And thank you all for joining us today. We made significant progress in Q3 executing our plan of reducing SG&A expenses and progressing toward profitability, despite significant volume headwinds driven by a variety of external and internal factors. In Q3, retail units sold totaled 102,570, a decrease of 8%. We gained market share versus the comparable period in 2021, despite the impact of high used vehicle prices, rising interest rates, and several initiatives focused on improving near-term profitability. Total revenue was $3.386 billion in Q3, a decrease of 3%. Total revenue included $193 million from ADESA, which was included in our results for the full quarter in Q3. Total gross profit per unit was $3,500 in Q3, a decrease of $1,172 year-over-year and an increase of $132 sequentially. Due to the dynamic nature of the current environment, we will focus our more detailed commentary on sequential changes. Following the acquisition of ADESA, we are recording total gross profit per unit, both including and excluding depreciation and amortization expense and share-based compensation expense associated with Ernie's one million unit milestone gift. Historically, Carvana has reported gross profit per unit including depreciation and amortization, while ADESA has reported gross profit excluding depreciation and amortization. For the purpose of clarity, we're now providing both. Total gross profit per unit excluding depreciation and amortization and the gift was $3,870 in Q3, an increase of $221 sequentially. Retail gross profit per unit was $1,131 in Q3, flat compared to $1,131 in Q2. Retail gross profit per unit excluding depreciation and amortization and the gift was $1,267 in Q3 compared to $1,276 in Q2. Sequential changes in retail gross profit per unit were primarily driven by higher spreads between retail prices and acquisition prices and lower retail cost of sales offset by higher retail depreciation rates in Q3 compared to Q2. Wholesale gross profit per unit was $448 in Q3, compared to $383 in Q2, a sequential increase of $65. Wholesale gross profit per unit excluding depreciation and amortization was $682 in Q3 compared to $519 in Q2. Sequential changes in wholesale gross profit per unit were primarily driven by consolidating a full quarter of ADESA in Q3. Other gross profit per unit was $1,921 in Q3, compared to $1,854 in Q2. Sequential changes in other gross profit per unit were primarily driven by higher origination rates relative to benchmark interest rates, and improved securitization credit spreads relative to Q2, partially offset by lower ancillary product attachment rates. Looking toward Q4, we expect to maintain flexibility to optimize our channel mix as the quarter progresses. We made significant progress reducing SG&A expenses in Q3. Carvana's SG&A expense, excluding impacts from ADESA, declined by $89 million compared to Q2. These SG&A expense reductions were broad-based, including in payroll, advertising, logistics, and other SG&A expenses. We expect to make continued progress on reducing SG&A expenses in the coming quarters as we continue to execute our plan across all areas of the business. Our progress in the quarter has led to an adjusted EBITDA improvement of $39 million in Q3 compared to Q2 despite lower retail units sold. Adjusted EBITDA margin was minus 5.9% in Q3, compared to minus 6.2% in Q2, an improvement of 0.3%. Adjusted EBITDA excludes impacts from Ernie's gifts of personal stock to Carvana employees, as well as other income and expenses, which primarily includes changes in the fair value of securities, but it includes non-gift share-based compensation. In May 2022, we outlined a stretch goal for Q4 2022 of $4,000 SG&A expense per retail unit sold, excluding depreciation, amortization, and share-based compensation expenses. This equated to a stretch goal of 4,350 to 4,450, including ADESA expenses. We are making strong progress reducing SG&A expenses on an absolute dollar basis. But due to the current volume environment, we do not expect to reach the stretch goal on a per unit basis in Q4. Our goal is to manage the business to achieve greater than $4,000 total gross profit per unit and significant adjusted EBITDA profitability at current volume levels, while also building in flexibility to achieve profitability at higher or lower volume levels through our efficiency and cost savings initiatives. On September 30, we had approximately $4.4 billion in total liquidity resources, including $2.3 billion in cash and revolving availability and $2.1 billion in unpledged real estate and other assets, including approximately $1 billion of real estate acquired from ADESA. We also ended the quarter with approximately 1.2 million units of inspection and reconditioning center capacity at full utilization, giving us substantial infrastructure for future profitable growth. This strong liquidity position, our significant production capacity runway, and our clear and focused operating plan position us well on our path to achieve our goal of driving positive cash flow and becoming the largest and most profitable auto retailer. Thank you for your attention. I will now take questions.

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. And our first question will come from Chris Bottiglieri with BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys, thanks for taking the question. I guess the first one is it appears that the broader used vehicle market may be facing incremental pressure in Q4 above and beyond what we've seen in Q3. That seems to be the sense that you're seeing as well in Q4. I guess my question is like what's changing right now? There are certain pockets in the market, and I'm talking Carvana specifically, we're pretty clear there. But what do you see in the market itself? Is the low-income consumers dropping out? Is every customer segment behaving similarly? Like what are you seeing in the market environment itself in Q4, relative to Q3?

Sure, well I think there's certainly a lot of headwinds. I think we've seen a tremendous amount of appreciation in car prices over the last several years; we put a stat in the shareholder letter that for a customer that is looking at car prices today and utilizing financing, their payment is up about 160% of what it would have been pre-pandemic. And I think recently, we've seen car prices depreciate to the tune of give or take 10% so far this year, but we've also seen interest rates shoot up very rapidly. And I think that overall has harmed affordability. I think it's always hard to set out what the rest of what's going on in the economy is. But clearly, it feels like sentiment broadly is decreasing; there are a bunch of different statistics that we can look at around yield consumer confidence or consumer willingness to buy a car at any point in time. And I think we tend to see some negative drift in those areas. I think we don't know exactly how that will unfold from here. I think we're trying to position the business in a way where we're well-positioned to earn significant positive EBITDA. These volumes are lower volumes; we're going to keep marching on expenses as fast as we can. I do think that we see at the top funnel that we're still taking market share, and potentially at a pretty fast rate. And so I think that leads us hopeful for where demand can ultimately go and where sales can ultimately go over time. But I think the next six to 12 months are certainly more uncertain than they have been in recent periods where it was pretty reliable that car sales would come in flat quarter-over-quarter; we're just focused on our own market share gains. So I think there are a lot of things happening; I think all the things you pointed to around demographic shifts—whether it's income or credit or whatever else—all those are active, and all those are moving in the directions that you'd expect. But I don't know that there's anything particularly notable that wouldn't be expected. It's just general softness, and I think we do see that across the entire industry.

Got it, okay. And then just given the uncertainty, can you talk about the financing outlook? Like, if the world stays uncertain, it seems like the ABS markets are like periodically open and periodically closed, but just more expensive to get deals done. Like if you had to abandon the ABS markets for a couple of quarters, do you have enough liquidity through Ally or other partners lined up that you could actually like sell those receivables? Like, how should we think about that risk of being able to still have a very high level of receivables originating? So maybe just talk about your confidence in getting those receivables offloaded in this environment?

Sure. So, yeah, what I would say is, I think the relationship with Ally remains extremely strong. We recently extended our floor plan line there for the next 18 months. I think that the way that our relationship works is we're regularly in contact with one another; we’re making sure that we come up with a plan that works great for both of us. I think as we've discussed in the past, the way that we've always thought about balancing our channels is making sure that we have access to a very high-quality channel like Ally, which in good times is probably a little bit more expensive for us, but it ensures that in tougher times, where the ABS market can go through difficult periods, that we've got a home for our loans. And so I think we feel good about the way that we've positioned that over time. We feel great about the relationship we've got. We'll be renewing that deal as we head into next year, as we have over the last several years. I don't think we have any expectations for how that renewal will go that are different from what it has been in the past. We generally set that up in a way where the economics between us and Ally are set to ensure that they have rates of return that are comparable to what they get elsewhere in the market. Our arrangement is set up in a way that is dynamic, so those adjustments have been happening in real-time throughout this year as the market has been changing. So I don't think we have any expectations for something particularly discreet. They've been a great partner for us in the past, and we've gone through periods where the ABS market was in a tough spot, including COVID. We generally try to size our commitment between us in a way that insulates us from that. So I think that's generally the plan there, and I think as I said, we feel good about it. It's a great relationship. They've been great to us, and hopefully they feel the same way about how we've been to them.

Our next question will come from Rajat Gupta with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Great, thanks for taking the question. Based on your fourth quarter unit and GPU guide, it looks like the fourth quarter cash burn, your excluding inventory is likely to be similar to the third quarter. And you might need to either draw on the revolver again or tap into the real estate. Should we expect you to start tapping into the real estate in the near term already? Or maybe you've already done it in the fourth quarter? And if yes, how should we think about the cap rates or if you offer the sale leaseback or maybe LTVs in case of a mortgage? And I have a follow-up, thanks.

Sure, yeah. So, on Q4, I already touched along a lot of the key dynamics. We do expect volume to be lower sequentially relative to Q3. We also expect gross profit per unit to be lower sequentially relative to Q3 due to some of the dynamics that Ernie discussed. At the same time, we also expect SG&A expenses to be down significantly, as well, as we continue to execute on all of our efficiency and cost savings initiatives. And so those are obviously offsetting factors. We also I would add, expect capital expenditures to continue to come down in Q4 relative to Q3. So I think those are some of the dynamics for Q4, specifically. In terms of our real estate assets, obviously, we have a very large and attractive real estate portfolio. We just acquired a nationwide network of auction sites from ADESA. I think those are large sites in very desirable markets that we think are really attractive pieces of real estate, and this was a big motivation for us to undertake that acquisition. We've also been building some large inspection and reconditioning centers in attractive markets around the country. I think we have a great real estate portfolio. In terms of how we're thinking about financing that, yeah, I think we have multiple options for the way we can finance that. Traditionally, in history, we've used sale leaseback transactions; I think we've executed about $500 million of those so far in our history as a company, but I think there can also be other forms of financing for large real estate portfolios. So I think that's something we're thinking about, and I don't think we’re going to be particularly hasty with any real estate transactions. But we do feel like we've got a really nice base of assets there.

So you're not tapping into any right in front of you so far?

I think we're going to be very thoughtful about the best way and timing for financing those assets.

Maybe the other follow-up, you mentioned that you're looking to be profitable at $4,000 plus in gross profit per unit and current volume levels. That would imply somewhere close to $100 million plus, that needs to come out from your quarterly SG&A. Can you highlight maybe a few areas where there's still some low-hanging fruit, or any initiatives that are already underway to get there? And lastly, any sense of timing when you do expect to get there? This might be independent of the macro. My guess? Thanks.

Sure. So I mean, I would start by just pointing to the progress that we made last quarter, where we reduced expenses by about $90 million quarter-over-quarter, which is obviously a big number, and is a meaningful number relative to the step-down that we look to make in the future. I think undoubtedly, as you continue to march down expenses, it gets every incremental dollar a little harder than the last, but you're still at levels of expense that are much higher than we would like to be, and we're still in a place where there's obviously some low-hanging fruit. I think if we look at the gains that we made last quarter, it's probably most fair to massage out the impacts of the reduction in force that we had in May, which probably reduces that kind of $90 million in gains to something more like 70, but still a really meaningful number. And I think that was very broad-based that came across the board. In terms of our payroll, we reduced expenses by $20 million in advertising and $14 million in logistics, and we made gains across the board everywhere else. In total, we cut out $90 million of costs, which was 8% overall. And that was all powered by a lot of operational great gains across all of our operational groups. The logistics network had a bunch of meaningful improvements. Network utilization was up 8% quarter-over-quarter, and we've seen average shipping miles per sale down 10% that have continued to go down further since the quarter ended. We've rolled out a new management structure at our logistics hubs; only a small subset so far, but in those hubs, we're seeing an additional 10% of gains in kind of cost per mile. And we expect to roll that out across the country over the coming quarters. So I think we're really excited about the gains that we're making and the idea; we put a table in the letter that tries to break that down so you can see where that's all coming from, and it really is coming from across the business. And we expect gains from here to also come from across the business because there's still a lot of low-hanging fruit.

Our next question will come from Nick Jones with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.

Great, thanks for taking the questions. I guess you're taking a big step back and looking at next year, is it really just for used car retail? Is it really just kind of seeing prices come down and affordability come down, or will this be difficult if OEMs kind of put more cars into the ecosystem? I guess kind of how are you thinking about what kind of key indicators indicate things are normalizing as we get through Q4 and start looking into next year?

I think that's probably a very complicated question. So I think all we can do is kind of reach back in history and try to give you some data points that we think might be relevant. I think the point that you've made about OEMs producing fewer cars over the last couple of years is correct and relevant. Although, I will say that if we go back to the 2008-2009 recession, there were dramatically more cars pulled out of the ecosystem during that period. And if we look at used car sales over the next several years, they were pretty marginally impacted by that. I think debatably in the data, you can kind of see an echo of that decrease in OEM production, but it's not particularly pronounced. And I think the reduction in volume over the last couple of years has been a small fraction of the reduction volume over the couple of years surrounding that recession. I think cars also inflated dramatically relative to other goods in a dynamic that I think is pretty abnormal and unprecedented, at least in my knowledge set. Cars really moved up materially in cost, while the rest of the kind of goods in the economy for a long time were relatively stable. And now kind of cars are really coming down in cost at the same time that other goods in the economy are going up. And so I think debatably on kind of like a relative affordability, relative value basis, cars are potentially moving in a good direction. I think that may also be true just depending on what your view is of rates, but if we use the forward interest rate curve as an indication of where rates are going to go, there should be more of the increases behind us than there are in front of us. And for most customers who use financing to buy a car, that's obviously a meaningful input. I think if we look back to 2008 and 2009 as well, and we try to say where did the used car market bottom, it did probably bottom, give or take six months before the stock market bottomed, and maybe a little longer than that before the economy bottomed in some total. I think that did correspond at the time with roughly when the Fed started cutting interest rates, which who knows when that happens in this cycle. But I think that's how that played out last cycle. As I said, I think there are a lot of dynamics that are pretty different right now and pretty unprecedented. So I think without trying to look at everything like the glass is half full, I do think we want to make sure that we prepare for the worst, but I do think there are reasons to believe that there could be some good things that can happen in auto relative to other categories over the next 12 months. And I think those are driven by the fact that cars are extremely expensive, they're extremely sensitive to interest rates, and there's been a lot of movement in those areas recently, and it looks more likely that some of that movement will unwind in the future than not. So we pay attention; everyone else will. I think we'll be setting up the business to be as flexible as it possibly can be. We'll be driving down expenses as quickly as possible and, like I said, planning for the worst and hoping for the best. But it's a hard one to call at this point.

Got it. And maybe just one quick follow-up on gross profit per unit. How at risk is gross profit per unit from some of these factors like depreciation rates? I mean how much should we think about that going into Q4 and next year? Can that compress quite a bit, or do you feel comfortable that it's somewhat stable and you can protect gross profit to an extent?

So let me start with the market factors, and then I'll roll into the things that we're in control of. I think the first and simplest mental model for all this is that different players in the industry, whether we're talking about the finance industry or the automotive retail industry, are generally trying to kind of achieve a certain profit for the efforts that they're undertaking, right? And so I think, over time, there's obviously ballast in the market that is trying to find its normal range. I think it is probably true that ballast is stronger in the forces that impact retail gross profit per unit than finance gross profit per unit, because in our view, retailers have much more similar cost structures. They have much more similar profit goals. They don't have variation in input costs. They tend not to have huge cash cushions, which puts them in this situation where they need to earn period to period. I think that's why if you look over time, you see a lot of correlation between depreciation rates and wholesale retail spreads, and you see a lot of stability in retail margins across many retailers and many cycles. And so I think from a market force perspective, that has historically been a pretty stable number, and I think that would be our expectation going forward. But I also think that we're in a period where some of those moves are just happening very, very fast. And I think when they happen very fast, I think it leaves room for either kind of error relative to what we've seen in the past. And so I think we need to prepare for that. I think on the finance gross profit per unit side, I think there's room for those forces to be a little bit slower. Different finance companies have different underlying costs of funds and utilize different methods for passing on cost of fund increases to their customers. We've seen evidence for many finance companies out there that they've been passing on cost of funds more in line with Fed funds than with two-year treasury, which is more of the benchmark that we use. I think to the extent that's true, once kind of treasury is correctly predicting what Fed funds is going to do over the next two years, it should stabilize and then the Fed funds rate would likely continue to go up and that gap would collapse and that would probably be helpful for us, both in terms of finance gross profit per unit and in terms of retail sales volumes that are driven by the quality offers that we give to our financing customers. But I do think that just given that, that's a market that's dominated by fewer players with more variation in input costs and who do have cash cushions who can absorb different strategies; I think there's more risk that that could move around in more abnormal ways relative to history. But I think we're just going to have to watch that and see it play out. Now what's in our control? What's in our control is where we set price and where we set interest rates and where we set bids on cars that we're buying from customers. And I think that in all those areas, there's probably a little bit of room for us to be able to adjust to an environment where underlying costs, regardless of what one of those costs take, go up. If it's our input cost of our cars or the cost of financing for our customers, I do think we have some natural offsets there where we likely have some room. And so as we said, our number one goal is going to be really focused on expenses in this environment, really focused on being purposeful about driving more of our most profitable sales and fewer of our less profitable sales, pay very close attention to what's going on in the world around us as it's moving as dynamically as it has been, and then pull the levers that we've got control of to try to do the best we can to manage through it all. And I think that's the plan. And like I said, we'll be paying close attention from here. There's a lot of room for things to vary relative to the past over the next couple of quarters.

Our next question will come from Adam Jonas with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Hey, Ernie, does the business need more equity capital? And would your family consider giving up control if that was required to maintain the company as a going concern?

So I think you'll, as you see here, our goals are going to be on driving down expenses and trying to get positive EBITDA as quickly as we can. We've got a bunch of committed liquidity; we've got a bunch of real estate. And I think that we feel like that puts us in a good position to ride out this storm. And we're making great moves inside the company. So I think that we're extremely optimistic about riding all that out. And then I just think as it relates to hypotheticals, we'll stay away from those. We're just going to keep running our play and moving forward.

All right, Ernie. Just as a follow-up. On CapEx, the $90 million in the quarter, backing out the first half, was that gap between the $50 million target? How much of that was ADESA? And you said you'd target a reduction, but I didn't know if you could identify a bit of a quantum for the fourth quarter of how much that could be reduced. Appreciate it.

Sure. We initially set some CapEx targets by quarter in May. Our budget for Q3 was $100 million, and we ended up at $90 million. Our target for Q4 was $50 million.

Next question will come from John Colantuoni with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Thanks for taking my questions. So just curious if you could lay out which areas of the industry you saw the biggest deterioration relative to your expectations last quarter. And how much those areas of surprise impacted vehicle gross profit per unit and SG&A per unit? I guess what I'm asking is if you look back at those areas of surprise, can you help size how much progress you would have made on your operational goals absent the softening macro?

Sure. I think when we laid out our operating plan in May, we talked about several goals that we laid out for the end of this year, and we kind of talked about how in order to hit those goals, we would expect to get a little bit of help from units. So we're clearly in a spot where units have moved in the wrong direction over the last quarter. I think that, that's probably the area where there's been the biggest change relative to what our expectations would have been then. Now I think a lot has moved. We've seen interest rates move up materially and most customers use financing to buy a car. We've seen depreciation rates move up quite a bit. We've seen that probably slow down our progress on gross profit per unit as we focus on originating more profitable sales and fewer less profitable sales. I think the line of which sales you want to originate moves up and down with gross profit per unit. And then you also have kind of just the broader headwinds in the industry. So I think those have been the adjustments that we've been making in real time as we've been adjusting to the changing world, just like everyone else. I think, again, I think we got to be careful with hypotheticals, but I think to just try to provide something of a framework, I do think that in short periods of time and within reasonable range of units, today, expenses and units are moving somewhat independently. They're certainly not completely independent. There are obviously variable costs involved with selling a car. But when you're overbuilt, the underlying variable costs are obviously much, much lower. And so I think had units been higher, it could have made a material difference to where our results were on a per unit basis. But I think, like I said, all we can do is kind of keep doing the best job we can forecasting the world in front of us, recognize that it's probably better to miss conservatively than to miss aggressively, and then try to drive down expenses and make the best decisions we can, pulling the other levers as we manage through it. And so that's what we'll continue to do.

Great. And I wanted to ask about your expectations for how used car prices coming down in the coming months impacts used car demand. Do you see consumers waiting for used car prices to hit a floor before buying, or do you see there being more of a linear relationship between declining prices and rising demand? And at what point do we start to see that material uptick in used car velocity? Do prices need to reach pre-pandemic prices or 5% above pre-pandemic prices? I'm curious if you sort of thought about that at all. Thanks.

Sure. Those are all important questions, and they are challenging to answer. I believe that various factors are ongoing influences. Additionally, there's the uncertainty of how consumers will feel in the next six to twelve months based on the overall economy, which is difficult to predict. There are no specific price points we believe must be reached; we simply think lower prices are better. Consumers have spent the last 18 months reading about the high costs of cars, which may negatively affect their perception, and we observe this reflected in some surveys about whether it's a good time to buy a car. Our goal is to hope for stable fundamentals, including stabilization of interest rates, reductions in car prices to make them more affordable, and overall economic stability. However, all these factors still come with uncertainty, so we wouldn’t want to predict exactly when they will start to align favorably.

Our next question will come from Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Please go ahead.

Good afternoon. You're taking actions to improve gross profit per unit, but those actions are having an impact on unit sales even beyond market forces. And in the fourth quarter, you're anticipating volumes and gross profit per unit to be down sequentially. Do you take more drastic actions in one direction or the other here to improve on those metrics even as you consider the macro forces?

I think we're going to try to miss aggressive, is what I would say. And we've got the whole company pushing hard in this direction of managing expenses down. I do think the progress that we've made is great. I think there's a lot of people inside Carvana doing some of the best and fastest, most effective work they've ever done. I think as a company, we're getting more done now than we ever have. And I think that it's unfortunate it's coming at the time we're facing so many headwinds, and so it's a little bit harder to see the fruits of all that labor. But I think that there's a lot of great work being done. And I think that in the fullness of time that will all kind of ultimately show up. But I think for now, it's more of the same. I just think we keep our heads down and keep fighting through that. And then when we get to the other side of this, really, which I would define in kind of two steps: I think one big move is just stability; once rates stop going up and we get to a spot where there is a little bit of stability in the economy, even if car sales stay at a depressed level, we're able to just kind of continue to grow our demand market share from there. I think that puts us in a really good spot. And then I think once you get to the extremely exciting place where the entire industry turns around, I think that's great because then I think we have double tailwinds there: we have our own market share gains that we would expect to get that would be accentuated by an increase in gross profit, which makes more sales more attractive for us to go attack. And then you'd also have the tailwinds of the industry itself. But I think we're just kind of not planning for that for now; we're just trying to drive down expenses, and we'll pay attention and make adjustments as needed.

Just to follow up, considering you have capacity for 1.4 million units and you're on a run rate of 400,000 or less, and you have a lot of markets that are doing low volumes and aren't near IRCs, wouldn't it be prudent at this point in time to excuse IRCs and pull out of some markets?

So I think, as I said, I'm going to say one level probably more abstract than you wish here, but I think we're definitely going to be taking actions to try and drive down expenses as quickly as we feel like we responsibly can. And we have been, and you can see kind of the benefits there in our results. Again, we dropped expenses by $90 million last quarter, quarter-over-quarter. That's pretty fast, and that's due to a lot of choices we made across the company and a lot of great execution, and our goal is to continue doing that.

Our next question will come from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Hi, good afternoon. So first question I have, we've talked a lot about the degree to which you're working on the expense side of the business and then the challenges out there. So in the nearer term, as you're contending with these demand headwinds, I know they're big in terms of both affordability and your confidence, is there any other levers that Carvana could pull to try to offset that from the demand side? Are there tools at your disposal that you would consider pulling?

Sure. Something we haven't talked about on this call is I do think the underlying demand picture looks better than the sales picture in our minds, at least. I think if we one way to try to massage out kind of differential impacts of kind of interest rate policies between us and other players, and to massage out some of the impacts of rising rates is to just look at the sales volume that we have for customers that use cash to buy cars from us. If we look at that, we grew by over 20% year-over-year in the quarter, which was over 30% faster than the rest of the company. So that's pretty meaningful gains there. I think we also have spoken a bit abstractly about many of these choices we're making to try to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales across the company. That takes many, many different forms. But I think the easiest form to kind of understand there and for us to articulate is to just look at different regions in the country. So if we look at the middle of the country, which is where we have many more of our inspection centers and many more cars that are closer to our customers, we grew 4% quarter-over-quarter. If we look at the two coasts, we shrunk pretty meaningfully quarter-over-quarter, and so the middle of the country outgrew the coast by over 10% there as well. There are many underlying actions that are causing more of our sales to be concentrated in the middle of the country as we pursue more profitable sales. But even in the middle of the country, they're impacted by our choice to pursue more profitable sales and to forego less profitable sales. When you look at all that, you start to see, you've got to be careful when you're layering multiple effects and compounding them, but you can see that when we look at cash customers, there's a lot of growth there, and when we look at the middle of the country where we're making less dramatic moves to cut out less profitable sales, there's growth there. You start to layer that on top of each other, and you can see that there really is underlying demand growth. Our view is if the industry can stabilize and if we can get to a spot where GPUs where they can kind of settle out and be a little more stable and reliable as we get stability in interest rates, that gives us a chance to start to go express that underlying demand growth again. For the time being, we have to prudently manage the business for profitability and cash flow; we've faced a number of headwinds that have caused us to pull back. So I think the underlying demand, we believe, is still there like it was before but I think the pretty dramatic change in strategic direction from a heavy focus on growth to a heavy focus on cost certainly is imposing a cost on volumes that you're seeing in our results.

Perfect. And just one follow-up, Ernie. So look, Carvana is unique; it's still primarily a virtual model. As you look at this overall demand picture, what's happening in the sector from a demand—do you think that Carvana and its still largely virtual model is incrementally hampered here versus maybe more traditional dealers or vice versa?

I think undoubtedly, the swing in strategy from grow as fast as you can to get profitable as fast as you can is a big change. And I think that has many impacts across every part of the company. And I think that change in strategy, all else constant, has probably made our work a little bit harder than for different retailers that weren't pursuing as aggressive of a growth strategy and we're kind of already in more of a profit mindset. So I think that has been the bigger driver of kind of differential pressure that we felt. Now that said, I think if you look at the direction of our results—whether it's expenses or EBITDA or whatever else—I think the direction is good. We decreased our EBITDA loss in the quarter. Given the headwinds that we're seeing everywhere else, a lot of other retailers are probably seeing their results get worse in the quarter. So I think directionally, we're making some pretty good steps or taking some pretty good steps. But I think probably that change, all else constant, has been hard, and I think that we're making it and I think the team is doing a great job. I associate that more with the change in strategy than I would with the model. I think the business model kind of is built and aimed at a certain volume; we believe it has kind of lower variable costs and higher fixed costs in the traditional business. But even at this level of volume, it's positioned to earn a lot of EBITDA when you're in a place where you're stable and you're not swinging from one strategy to another.

Our next question will come from Chris Pierce with Needham & Company. Please go ahead.

Hey. Another end-market question. I'm just kind of curious, we've been seeing wholesale prices come down pretty aggressively, but we're not seeing that at the retail level. So is it—when this happens and when these spreads widen out, what do we need to see? Do you always need existing inventory clear? Are they not willing to do that because they don't want to take losses? I'm just trying to get a sense of when demand might actually come back and we need to see not just lower prices—lower prices kind of how would you think about demand coming back and when that could happen, or what happens when these spreads widen out this much?

Yeah, sure. I mean, you largely described the dynamic that I think has been the average dynamic over time, which is, generally speaking, wholesale prices lead. So whether it's up or down, they tend to lead. And it's because, for the most part, kind of a heavily simplified mental model is that dealers are not buying cars at wholesale and then they plan to make a certain amount of profit on that car, and they sell that car between 30 and 90 days later, and they're going to aim for kind of earning the profit that they're shooting for on that car in 30 to 90 days. And so when we saw prices appreciating over the last two years, we saw the wholesale market leading up the retail market. If you looked in real time, you saw the wholesale retail spread massively collapse, but then that was offset in dealers' profit margins by the appreciation that we've seen or equivalently by the lag time with which they would have changed their pricing to the market. And then as it's gone down, we're seeing more of the same. And I think if you look over the last two years, there have been many, many changes of direction of depreciation. And every time there's been at least a directionally offsetting change in wholesale retail spreads. I think that what we're seeing in the wholesale market is most likely to be used as a preview of what we're going to see in the retail market over the next couple of months. That's at least been the way that it's historically played out, and that it's played out over the last couple of years.

So is it too simplistic to think that it would be better to push inventory and reset at these lower prices? I know that turns, et cetera, is 30 to 90 days, like you spoke about. But it seems like instead of just waiting and waiting and having lower unit sales, I'm just kind of curious how dealers would think about those two situations. So hope to earn my standard gross profit per unit, or just kind of move on from this aged inventory.

So I think that that framework is, I think, more of like a real-time earnings optimizing framework instead of like a total earnings across time framework. And I think many dealers oftentimes think about optimizing kind of total cash. If you were to take retail cars today and clear them in the wholesale market that is now leading the retail market down, you would take kind of pretty large losses that would be certain. You would be able to then replace that with lower-cost inventory that you could put out on your lot, and if your goal was to earn the same profit as before, then you probably could lower prices quickly and sell more cars, but you would just be kind of getting more earnings to offset your previous losses. So I think usually, what most retailers out there do, and what we do, is we try to kind of optimize for what we think is the value across cars and customers across time. And it's usually pretty expensive to take cars out of retail and go sell them wholesale, kind of regardless of what the market is. There can be occasions where that can make sense. But generally speaking, as long as there's anything near healthy demand in your retail channel, you're usually better off selling those cars through retail when you kind of calculate some of the impacts across time.

Our next question will come from Naved Khan with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Hey, guys This is Vincent for Naved. So regarding working capital, you've again lowered inventory closer to the $2 billion to $2.5 billion target range you mentioned previously. So just curious how much lower you expect that to go? And how is your progress in moving on a third-party conditioning impact?

Sure. Yeah. So I think we took a nice step down in inventory in Q3, the second consecutive quarter of moving it down towards more normalized levels. We do expect inventory to decline again in Q4 to get sort of inside that range that we laid out previously. So we do think that's—that also makes sense in light of the current depreciation environment and in light of our goals of getting inventory to a more normalized level relative to retail unit sales. So, yeah, we do expect to do that in Q4 and feel good about the path that we're on there.

Okay. Great. And then can you provide any color on your ability to reach the base year-end SG&A unit goal given a reduction in retail volumes?

Sure. Yeah. So you're referencing the stretch goal for Q4? I think our goal is to continue to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can. We try to give a framework for how quickly we think we can push those down. We were able to lower them kind of without accounting for the RIF. Last quarter, we were able to lower them by about 12%. As we said, it obviously gets harder to lower expenses as your expense base drops, but we think there's still a lot of low-hanging fruit, and so we're going to try to continue to lower that. And then I think right now, inside of reasonable ranges, expenses and units are much more loosely tied together than they normally would be. And so I think those things are probably moving more independently than normal, and we'll just be seeking to push down expenses as quickly as we possibly can to try to get to breakeven EBITDA and then ultimately the positive cash flow ASAP.

Our next question will come from Nat Schindler with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Yes. Hi, guys. There's—going back to an earlier comment about equity financing. Well, let's not talk about equity financing specifically and go over that again, but more how do you fix the debt financing that you have—what are your options right now? Because even getting to positive cash flow, even getting to your long-term targets—not positive EBITDA—even getting to your long-term EBITDA target, you would have to sell a whole lot of cars just to cover your current interest expense. What can you do to fix that debt load?

Sure. Let me start with this. I mean I think if we hit our long-term EBITDA targets even at today's units, we'd be in a great spot from a cash flow perspective. I think and would be able to comfortably cover our interest expense. So I want to make sure that, that's at least clear. And I think you look across time at other retailers that have been at similar scale to where we are today, who have been able to achieve sufficient positive EBITDA to cover what our interest expense is today. So I think our goal is as stated, and I apologize for going through it over and over again, but I think in this environment, we've got to really focus on what's in our direct control. The thing that is most directly in our control is expenses. So we're going to keep marching that down as quickly as we can, and then we're going to pay a lot of attention to how we originate the most profitable sales that we can to try to accelerate our path to breakeven EBITDA and beyond. And so that's the plan right there. That's just what we're going to be working on.

So wait, even at 400,000 annual units, or, let's say, 100,000 in a quarter where you are right now, you had $150 million in interest income. At 13.5% EBITDA, you wouldn't cover that.

I think you just make sure you're multiplying by the kind of retail price, and I think you'll probably get there.

Okay. You'll barely get there. Yes, sorry.

Yeah, I think we'd get there with a little bit of cushion, but yes, but either way.

Okay. So is there anything that you have on the near term on the horizon that you can think of to do to finance that debt any other way, though, other than just driving that EBITDA?

I think, as we stated earlier, I think the number one input to all this is expenses that drives into EBITDA. From there, we've got, to kind of use round numbers, about $4 billion of kind of total access to liquidity. Approximately half of that is immediately available; the other half is broken down to be about $1 billion of ADESA real estate and about $1 billion of other real estate. Between all that, that gives us a lot of access to liquidity. And so I think that's primarily how we're thinking about it at the moment, and we'll continue to move forward with our plan.

Our final question will come from Michael Montani with Evercore. Please go ahead.

Hey, thanks for taking the question. Just wanted to ask, first off, if I could. You had mentioned trying to pull back in certain markets to emphasize more profitable sales. But I also wanted to ask about some of the initiatives that you all have going on. I'm thinking of, for example, third-party listings. I had seen that you may be pulling back or pausing on that. So I just wanted to understand where that sits, the Hertz partnership. And then I had a separate follow-up.

Sure. So what I would say is I think when we think about—I'm going to ask this generally and maybe not precisely related to some of the things you brought in your question, but hopefully, it's useful. When we think about trying to aim for more profitable sales, what does that mean? There's certainly variability in the kind of gross profit associated with different types of sales. Obviously, sales where customers finance with us are more profitable than those where they don’t. And those where they choose to buy a warranty are more profitable than those where they don’t. There’s also kind of variation in the underlying costs of completing a sale. If it's a car that's nearby to an inspection center, it can be much, much lower. If it's a car that's maybe further away but where we're charging a shipping fee, it can be higher but it can be offset by the benefit of that shipping fee. There can also be variation in the cost to acquire different types of sales, whether it's sales to different types of customers or different types of cars. That can vary in some of those different channels can also attract customers with kind of variable levels of either gross profit or expected expense. Across all those different areas, we're trying to just be very thoughtful right now and make sure that we're pulling levers that we think will drive the most profitable sales and drive the fewest less profitable sales. And I think that, that's taking many different forms. And then you brought up Hertz. I would say that partnership continues to go very well. We're putting even more focus and attention on that right now as we think it's a big opportunity and there’s alignment between the two groups. We're excited about the results there for sure. I think that it's led to some other opportunities between us, especially as we've added ADESA to augment the overall capabilities that we have. So I think that continues to go really well. And I think you said you had a follow-up.

Yeah. Thanks. So the follow-up is just around CapEx. And I think in May, you all had outlined some different scenarios and what you felt was baseline kind of CapEx spend. But just wondering, volumes remain kind of challenged in terms of where we're at right now. Do you have further flexibility there? Can you just give us some sensitivity on kind of the CapEx outlay pace?

Sure. Yeah. And everything I'm about to say is also in the shareholder letter for future reference. But in May, we laid out a 2023 full-year CapEx budget in the range of $100 million to $200 million, depending on the amount of elective capital expenditures we decide to undertake. I think from where we sit today, we expect to be in the lower half of that range.

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to management for any closing remarks.

All right. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call. And to everyone inside Carvana, thank you guys again for all the work that you're putting in. I do think that we are getting more done than we ever have. I know it's against a tough backdrop. I think—you've heard it over and over again, but I hope we're all prepared for the environment to continue to be tough. And I think we still have a lot of work left to do, but I do think we're all doing a great job, and we could not thank you guys more for it. So thanks for everything you guys do. And thanks again to everyone on the call. We'll talk to you soon.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.