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Earnings call · FY2026 Q3
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Good afternoon, and welcome to the Greenplates, Inc. third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Following the company's prepared remarks, instructions will be provided for the Q&A. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. I will now hand the call over to your host, Will Yackel, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead, Will.
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Green Plains, Inc. third quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call are Chris Osaski, President and Chief Executive Officer, Anne Reese, Chief Financial Officer, and Emre Havasi, Senior Vice President of Trading and Commercial Operations, together with the other members of our senior leadership team. The accompanying slides are available in the Events and Presentation section of our website. Before we begin, please note that during today's call, we will be making forward-looking statements which are expectations, projections, and statements about future events. These statements reflect current assumptions and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual outcomes to differ materially. Please review the risks described in today's earnings release, our remarks on this call, and our Form 10-K, Form 10-Q, and other SEC filings. Green Plains does not undertake any duty to update any forward-looking statements. With that, Chris, I'll turn the call over to you.
Thanks, Will, and good afternoon, everyone. This is an exciting time for Green Plains. We delivered exceptional third-quarter results with a record $118 million of adjusted EBITDA, more than double our prior year results. And more recently reached a major milestone with the execution of an agreement to monetize our 2026 45 Z clean fuel production tax credits. The significance of this quarter goes well beyond record adjusted EBITDA and the benefits of 45 Z. We are operating better and creating more value from the assets we already own. Together, those factors are strengthening our earnings power and giving us greater flexibility to invest in the business and pursue opportunities that can create long-term value for shareholders. What makes the third quarter particularly important is how we deliver those results. While market conditions were favorable, the quarter also demonstrated the tangible benefits of the investments we have made in our people, assets, and processes. Platform utilization recovered to approximately 95%, production increased by 14 million gallons sequentially, ethanol and corn oil yields reached record levels, and energy usage per gallon improved year over year. Those improvements translated directly into financial results. Consolidated crush margins improved approximately 11 cents per gallon sequentially, and the majority of that improvement came from plant performance, commercial execution, and other factors beyond the commodity environment. Nowhere was that improved execution more evident than at Madison. Following the extended downtime in the second quarter, the plant not only recovered, but achieved the highest quarterly ethanol production in its 15-plus years of operation. I said last quarter that we will not be skipping leg day, and that's exactly what I meant. We're putting in the work to come back stronger. That is precisely the culture we are building at Green Plains and what operational excellence is intended to deliver. When challenges arise, we identify them, address them, and emerge stronger. The stronger-based business performance is only one part of the earnings and cash-generating opportunities we've built at Green Plains. During the third quarter, our low-carbon platform generated $65 million of 45Z production tax credit value, net of discounts, and associated costs. Higher qualifying production and improved capture performance have expanded the value generation across the platform, supporting another increase in our full-year outlook. We entered 2026 expecting approximately $188 million of carbon EBITDA and are now on track to deliver approximately $230 to $250 million for the full year. Looking ahead to 2027, we currently expect at least $250 million of EBITDA from our low-carbon platform. We ended the quarter with $160 million of cash and $210 million of production tax credit receivables that our monetization agreement provides a clear path to convert into cash. Together, that is approximately $370 million of cash and tax credit value that we can put to work while maintaining balance sheet strength and flexibility. Our capital allocation framework remains consistent, clear, and disciplined. First, We'll continue to invest in the safety, reliability, and competitiveness of the assets we already own to drive performance and unlock additional value. Second, we will direct a portion of our cash flow towards reducing debt and strengthening our balance sheet while preserving financial flexibility. Third, We will pursue opportunities both organic and outside of our platform, which can accelerate value creation and generate attractive risk-adjusted returns for shareholders. We have attractive opportunities within the platform today and also have the flexibility to evaluate opportunities outside of the platform where we believe green planes can create more value as the owner. In every case, the standard is the same. We need a clear path to attractive risk adjusted returns and long term value per share. As all of our projects compete for capital from time to time, we expect to be buyers of our own shares as well. And it may be one of the highest cash flow accredited options available. With that, I will turn it over to Anne to go through our quarterly financial results in more detail.
Thanks, Chris. Our third quarter results reflect the improved operating execution Chris discussed with better-based business economics and a significant contribution from our low-carbon platform. Revenue for the third quarter was $496 million, compared with $508 million in the prior year period. The 2.5% decline primarily reflected lower ethanol volumes associated with the sale of the Obion plant, which offset underlying revenue growth from higher ethanol and renewable corn oil volumes across our continuing operations and higher weighted average selling prices. Net income attributable to Green Plains was $85 million, or $1.03 per diluted share, compared with $12 million, or $0.17 per diluted share, in the third quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $118 million, compared with $53 million in the prior year period and $93 million in the second quarter. The quarter included $65 million of 45Z production tax credit value, net of discounts and expenses, while the base business generated $53 million of adjusted EBITDA. The consolidated ethanol crust margin increased to $123 million, or $0.70 per gallon, from $60 million, or $0.30 per gallon, over the prior year. Agribusiness and Energy Services adjusted EBITDA with $6.3 million compared with $6.7 million last year. One of the most important aspects of our performance this quarter was the significant improvement in our ethanol production results. Gross margins increased by approximately 7 cents compared to the third quarter of last year, and were also higher than the second quarter of this year. Record quarterly ethanol and corn oil yields improved production utilization, lowered operating expenses per gallon, and a strong commercial execution all contributed to the improvement. Hedging impacts were negligible as financial crush positions were a positive contributor in the quarter, but were offset by mark-to-market hedge losses associated with our future physical corn purchases. The key takeaway, as Chris discussed, is that the majority of the improvement came from operational performance. Commercial execution and other factors beyond the market-crush environment. Turning to carbon, as Chris discussed, the agreement to monetize our 2026 tax credits was signed during the fourth quarter. As of September 30th, we had approximately $210 million of 45Z tax credit receivables on our balance sheet, based on production in the first three quarters of the year. We will convert approximately $140 million of those receivables into cash during this quarter, and we expect to monetize our third and fourth quarter production in the first half of 2027. The agreement provides for the transfer of a minimum of $250 million worth of tax credits and a maximum of $325 million, with an option for the buyers to purchase an additional $30 million, dependent upon our total generation of 45Z tax credits in 2026. To be clear, these amounts represent the gross face value of the tax credits to be transferred, not a dollar-for-dollar contribution to adjusted EBITDA. Cash proceeds reflect the agreed transfer discount, while our 45Z-related adjusted EBITDA is net of both discounts and associated operating expenses. Adjusted EBITDA from the production of 45Z tax credits increased during the third quarter due to higher qualifying production and the improved capture performance. At Madison, improved ethanol yields lowered the plant's carbon intensity enough to qualify for a more favorable 45Z credit tier, generating approximately 6 million of additional tax credits during the quarter. We also recently announced the implementation of our Farm Forward Incentive Program at our Nebraska facilities, which provides another opportunity to lower the carbon intensity of qualifying gallons through recognized farming practices. For qualifying gallons, these practices can further reduce feedstock CI and increase 45C credit value. Based on the combination of farm forward and other CI lowering initiatives across our platform and continued operational improvements in the plants and sequestration assets, we expect to generate at least $250 million of carbon-related EBITDA in 2027. Our focus remains on maximizing qualifying production, improving capture efficiency, optimizing pathway economics, and converting the resulting credit value into cash as efficiently as possible. Turning to expenses, total SG&A was $27 million in the third quarter, down approximately $2 million, or 9%, from the third quarter of 2025. On the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $160 million of cash and cash equivalents and $478 million of total debt. As Chris mentioned, we have an excess of $370 million between our cash balance and production tax credit receivables, positioning us to invest in the business and pursue attractive opportunities while maintaining balance sheet strength. Capital expenditures were approximately $12 million during the quarter, bringing year-to-date capital expenditures to $29 million. Cash flows from operating activities were $47 million through the first nine months. Cash conversion in the first three quarters was affected by the build in production tax credit receivables ahead of monetization, which, as discussed, are now being converted into cash with the monetization agreement in place. Taken together, the stronger performance of our base business and the increased visibility into 45Z monetization expands the range of capital allocation opportunities available to Green Plains. As Chris mentioned, our first priority remains supporting safe, reliable, and competitive operation of our assets. We will maintain balance sheet flexibility and continue investing in high return opportunities within the existing platform. Beyond that, we will selectively evaluate strategic opportunities where we can leverage our expertise in operational excellence, carbon capture and sequestration, and our scale to create value. Any investment will need to meet a high bar for strategic fit, risk-adjusted returns, and long-term per-share value creation. Where appropriate, buying back our own shares will compete against those opportunities under the same risk-adjusted return framework. We are operating from a stronger financial position, but our standards for deploying capital have not changed. We intend to remain disciplined and selective, with a focus on investments that can strengthen the long-term earnings power of Green Plains and create durable value for shareholders. With that, I will turn the call over to Emery to discuss our commercial performance and market outlook.
Thanks, Anne. As Anne mentioned, we saw improvement in our realized margins during the third quarter, and I want to spend a little time on what drove that performance. The board crush margin is an important reference point, but it is only one component of our realized economics. Our actual results reflect how we operate and commercialize across the business. We entered the third quarter with good physical corn and corn oil positions. We continued to have success managing our corn basis, optimizing our product mix, while improved plant performance allowed us to capture more value across the platform. Corn oil was a good example. Demand remained strong during the quarter, and we benefited from both our commercial position and record yields across the platform. Our ultra-high protein business also performed well, with stronger demand. Values have improved from the second quarter, which contributed nicely to gross margins. When you put all of those pieces together, it helps explain why our realized results were stronger than the headline industry indicators alone would suggest. Debt differentiation is important because it gives us more ways to create margin than simply relying on changes in board crush and spot values. Ethyl industry production remains elevated, but so does demand. Domestic blending continues to provide a solid baseline while export activity remains an important source of support for the market. International demand has been supportive throughout the year and continues to provide an outlet for U.S. production. Brazil remains a key market to watch. The interplay between sugar economics, domestic ethanol demand, and production decisions continue to influence global ethanol trade flows and export opportunities for U.S. producers. On the corn side, the market continues to focus on harvest results and final crop size. While expectations remain for a large U.S. corn crop, demand from exports, feed usage, and ethanol production continues to absorb a meaningful portion of the supply. We continue to manage grain procurement activity and maintain a disciplined approach to both physical positions and risk management. Looking ahead, the fourth quarter has started off well. While industry margins remain below the levels we experienced during portions of the third quarter, our outlook for base ethanol profitability remains constructive. We continue to benefit from many of the same factors that supported third quarter performance, including strong plant reliability, favorable corn procurement positioning, Solid corn oil economics, and continued operational execution across the platform. As a result, we currently expect fourth quarter gross margins to remain above historical averages and continue to support strong profitability from the base business. While market conditions can change, what we're seeing today gives us confidence that many of the operational, commercial, and financial achievements during the third quarter are carrying forward in the fourth quarter. In closing, we remain focused on the factors we can control. Optimizing our physical positions, managing risk, maximizing the value of our products, and working closely with our plant teams to capture the benefit of higher yields, greater reliability, and lower cost. Q3 demonstrated how those capabilities can differentiate our results, even when the broader market indicators don't tell the entire story. With that, I'll turn it back to Chris.
Thanks, Imra. As we close, I want to leave you with three takeaways from the quarter. First, the third quarter validated our operating strategy. Operational excellence is translating into stronger operating and financial performance. We're getting more from the assets we already own, and importantly, we're not done improving. We see more opportunities to improve ethanol yields, recover more corn oil, and increase carbon capture performance, further strengthening the earnings power of our existing assets. Second, the execution of our 45Z monetization agreement validated our low-carbon strategy. We have demonstrated our ability to generate meaningful carbon earnings and convert that value into free cash flow. And that leads directly into the third takeaway. We're now well positioned to put the capital to work. The combination of stronger base business performance and improved visibility into 45Z cash flows gives us greater capital allocation flexibility. We can accelerate reinvestment in high return projects across our existing platform, maintain balance sheet strength, evaluate strategic opportunities, and consider additional ways to create value for shareholders. Ultimately, the real opportunity is how we deploy that capital to further strengthen our earnings power and create long-term value for shareholders. At Central City, we already operate a highly efficient plant, and the projects already underway provide a pathway to take carbon intensity even lower. With additional reductions in natural gas use, continued improvements in plant efficiency, and the benefits we expect from farm forward, Central City is on a path to net negative carbon intensity. Those gallons will generate approximately $1 per gallon of gross 45Z credit value. At York, we're advancing a low-energy distillation project designed to lower energy consumption, improve plant efficiency, and reduce carbon intensity with front-end engineering work progressing. At Wood River, construction of additional grain storage is moving forward, with the project on track for startup in early 2027, with key electrical tie-ins having just been completed. This investment will strengthen local grain procurement and operating flexibility, helping the plant manage input costs and support more consistent production. We are also advancing oil recovery projects across the platform, having just finished commissioning new Cornell separation equipment at Shenandoah and engineering a similar project at Wood River. These are repeatable high returning investments designed to capture more value from each bushel. This fits squarely within our capital allocation framework. Reinvest first in high return opportunities that improve the competitiveness and the earnings power of the assets we already own. We will continue to evaluate opportunities against the same standards we've established. Strategic fit, compelling risk-adjusted returns, and the ability to create long-term value per share. The bar will be high. We are evaluating growth opportunities. But we are not going to overpay. We need to see a strategic fit, a clear path to attractive returns, and a compelling reason why Green Plains is the right owner. If an opportunity doesn't meet those standards, we have other attractive ways to deploy that capital. We have more options today than we have had in a long time, and we're going to be very thoughtful on how we evaluate them. We are operating better, generating more cash, and entering 2027 with greater flexibility to invest in the business and create value for all Green Plains stakeholders. I want to thank our employees across Green Plains. Their commitment and execution are what has made this possible. We accomplished a lot this quarter, and we should be very proud of that. But we're not done. We see more opportunities in front of us, and we're going to keep pushing to get better. We'll celebrate the progress and then get right back to building. With that, we'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.
We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimal sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Kristen Owen at Oppenheimer. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for the question. You know, Chris, it's been just over a year since you took on the role, and I just have to start by acknowledging what a year you've really had. It's just been tremendous to see the execution. I know it takes a team, but I just wanted to acknowledge that. So, against that backdrop, can we start with just sort of the base F&L business? I mean, you've done a lot to reinvest in the platform, ensure that you're getting the operating metrics there. If we were to extrapolate out, and I'm thinking about this without the 45Z credits, how do you think about the overall run rate of the base business today? And maybe just relative to where it was three years ago, four years ago, how do you think that baseline has moved? And then I'll have a follow-up. Thank you.
Well, thanks for the acknowledgement, Kristen. And as you mentioned, it takes a team to get the results that we're getting. And I definitely appreciate everyone at Green Plains who's contributed a lot to improving our business. As it pertains to the run rate base business, I think it's Really a question of what we've done over the past couple of years to, you know, get the Green Plains assets performing at a best in class level. And when we say we hit record yields for ethanol and oil in this quarter, those are real numbers. And that is real measurable results. And we have line of sight into 2027. We're basically planning to have our best year ever. We expect ethanol yields to improve. And when ethanol yields improve, it's much easier to get better protein yields and oil yields. And the products we have in flight right now, they have the ability to incrementally improve EBITDA in the tens of millions of dollars on an annualized basis on the go forward. But once again, the team is firing on all cylinders and really focused on executing these projects to get those results in 2027.
Great. So then now let's layer on the carbon credit piece of this. You saw a nice step up here sequentially in carbon credit EBITDA. Obviously, you had a little bit better operating rates, but maybe can you help us in terms of what's contributing to that strength? And as it relates to the Farm Forward program, you know, is there any sort of catch-up that we should expect on that or incremental CI reduction on a go-forward basis? Just help us think about how that contributes to the CI score overall. Thank you.
Okay, so I'll cover the incremental improvement on carbon performance, and then I'll hand it off to Anne to talk a little bit about farm forward. You know, effectively, we have a team that is... Now has almost a year of operating the carbon sequestration equipment under their belt. And I think the relationship we have between our operations group and tall grass is only getting better. And the communication is getting better and we're learning how to operate the equipment even more efficiently than we did earlier in the year. And we have a line of sight to that improving into 2027. At the same time, you know, when we run these plants at high utilization rates and high yields. All of the carbon intensity factors improve. So it's kind of like a synergistic result. When all the wheels are turning, you know, we are able to produce more gallons at a lower CI score. We're able to dilute fixed costs amongst more volume, and the whole business economics improved.
Yeah, and I can touch a bit on Farm Forward. So, you know, we're really excited about this program and being able to roll it out. It's something we've been working on for a while, but really just needed the policy attached to it for us to be able to have full confidence to roll it out. You know, we're starting with our Nebraska facilities, you know, the whole concept to walk before you run. So we're making sure everything's going to work well there, which we're already seeing, you know, good signups, even with the farmers still in the fields and harvesting. We're getting a lot of interest and a lot of great questions. The program, you know, that we've rolled out will help add premium to the bushels that are brought in anywhere from 5 cents to 25 cents a bushel, depending on what the farmer's CI score is. And it'll go through verification and validation. So, as of right now, we're not really in a place to be able to say exactly how much additionality we're going to get from the Farm Forward Program, but we'll be able to talk more to that in future quarters as we start to get the results in, start to get the CI scores and the farming practices and the information from the farmers.
Thank you for the time.
Your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair from TPH. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Thanks, and good afternoon, and congrats on the very strong results. Chris, I wanted to ask about capital allocation. Thanks for outlining your priorities, but I was wondering if you could put maybe a few numbers around two of the components. You mentioned that you're looking to reduce debt. I believe at one point, Green Plains had a target for two times net leverage. You're obviously a lot better than net today, but are there any dollar figures? In terms of the target for debt reduction in 2027. And then you also mentioned organic opportunities or organic spending. I think growth CapEx might be around maybe 20 or 25 million this year. Is that a good number for 2027, or do you think it would go up materially? Thank you.
Okay, appreciate the question. And when it comes to debt reduction, of course, we have plans in place to take care of some convertible debt in early 2027. But as it pertains to growth CapEx, we would expect that 20 to 25 number to bump up into 2027. We have a line of sight to numerous projects that are very low in terms of technical risk that will help improve both the base business, but then also capitalize on 45Z opportunity, one of which is the project we were just getting close to wrapping up in Wood River for an additional 4.5 million bushels of grain storage, which we are looking to replicate in other locations, and the next location would be Central City. Which has a synergistic benefit for the business because it allows us to take advantage of peak arrival pressure during harvest and capture more bushels directly from the farmers, which then it also has a synergistic effect as it pertains to the farm forward program and lowering the CI score of the plant. So we have a strategy around our overall grain storage assets, and we'll look to deploy that in 2027. On top of that, we have additional Improvement projects within the fleet to further reduce natural gas consumption and extract more oil per bushel. And I mean, we have great line of sight to significant improvements in oil yields that we would expect to be able to execute on in 2027.
Sounds good. And then could you talk a little bit more about the environment you're seeing so far in the fourth quarter? I think there was talk that margins are below certain points, current margins are below certain points of Q3, but in general, if the quarter ended today, do you think you would be a little bit below Q3's profitability? And any other moving parts that you could touch on would be great. Thank you.
Yeah, this is Imre. I'm going to take that question. So as I mentioned in the prepared remarks, the quarter started out well, of course, but Q4 generally is a softer quarter as seasonality is starting to kick in with domestic demand, driving demand. lower than for the rest of the year. So I think that we cannot avoid this year. Those, you know, weaker demand numbers are starting to show up, but you can expect that pretty much every year. You know, again, lower ethanol demand, a little better DDGs values, somewhat softer corn oil values for the same reason. But maybe I want to highlight a couple of things that are specific to this year. Of course, corn futures dropped significantly. We've all witnessed a very significant sell-off, and that is helping crush margins, both crush margins. Export sales are robust. We continue to see very strong export demand in Q4. And natural gas cost is low. So we have certain components of this consolidated crush margin that are offsetting some of the seasonal pressures. One thing to watch, though, is corn basis. Harvest is getting delayed. Prices have fallen so much that the farmer is now a reluctant seller. So we've got to be a bit careful here how we finish the year Q4 going into Q1 in terms of physical corn availability. I hope that answers your question.
Yes, thank you very much.
Your next question comes from the line of Pornin Sharma from Stevens. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, and thanks for the question here. I just wanted to maybe get your comment. You alluded to strong export demand, but maybe wanted to get your sense as to how much visibility you have. Into continued momentum in 27. Are there particular markets that we've made gains in or maybe are planning to make gains in that that make this momentum more sticky as we go through the next.
Yeah, this is Imre again. Thanks for the question. Yes, we do expect exports to move even higher than current levels. I mean, if you go back, 24, we exported a little over 2 billion gallons, 25, 2.3, a little north of 2.3. We're going to probably end the year at Somewhere between 2.4 and 2.5, and our forecast for next year is north of 2.6. The demand is out there. There's some, of course, the same suspects, Canada, the EU, and, of course, South America and the Far East. The interesting thing is that, you know, export... Volume has grown quite significantly, but it has grown proportionately. So in terms of the market share of that export volume hasn't really changed. Canada is still taking 35%. The EU has grown a little bit, about 25, 30% if you throw in the UK. So we expect those Share percentages to remain relatively stable and expect some growth in Asia and perhaps South America. Not sure about Mexico. They are taking some, but there may be an opportunity there as well. But just in general, we're expecting another, let's just say, 200 million gallons of growth in exports. To pretty much the same destination, but some incremental opportunities in outside Canada. Brazil is uncertain. They took some in January. We're currently cheaper on a FOB basis than Brazilian ethanol. That may be in play also for Q1, especially as sugar prices are where they are today, and they will probably process more sugarcane for sugar than ethanol in Q1, early Q2.
Thank you, Maria. That's very helpful. And just for my follow-up, Chris, you kind of alluded to it and to you on the don't skip leg day message, but you hit 95% utilization this quarter. I think in the past, you've hit quarters where that's kind of higher. As we get out of... Spring and fall maintenance, do you see opportunity for that number to get sequentially higher in 4Q, or how should we think about utilization?
Well, I mean, for our fleet of plants, we just in last month executed Fall outages in five of the locations safely and efficiently. And the team is always focused as part of continuous improvement on tightening that window of downtime. So I'm looking at Trent Collins across the table here, who is our head of operational excellence in leading our operations team, who is driving that improved performance. But as far as Q4 goes, we would expect to be in that, you know, mid-90% utilization rate. And as a general rule for operations, whatever the nameplate capacity of an asset is, you know, we view that 95% is kind of our benchmark for what we expect best in class to be, and that's why we want to operate all of our assets to that kind of a standard. So we feel pretty good about where we're at. We do have additional projects that are in the works for 2027 that could not necessarily, you know, unlock a little bit of capacity, but really more focused on improving yields and lowering OPEX that'll help improve that number potentially.
Good. Appreciate the detail. Congrats on the results and the great outlook.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
Your last question comes from the line of Ben Mayhew from BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Hey, everyone. Congratulations on the really strong quarterly performance and string of strong performances to date. My first question has to do with the CI levels of your existing asset base, and I'm wondering how much runway you have on improving your existing asset base CI level, and what type of capital investment would be needed to maximize your asset-wide CI score? You know, across your plants over time. Like, is this a multi-year, you know, investment timeline, or is this stuff that can be pulled forward more over the next year or two? I'll start there. Thanks.
Hey, Ben, this is Anne. I'll maybe start and then let Chris kind of chime in with some additional CapEx that we're looking at. You know, overall, you know, we haven't given specific scores for each plant because they really are, you know, each one is different and unique depending on, you know, where they're located and how they've been constructed and what other, you know, pieces of equipment that are associated with the facility. You know, I think just in general, if you wanted to try to, you know, do a rough calculation, you know. What they start with is a 50, and then, you know, we're taking off six points for the ILUC penalty being removed. And we've talked about, you know, how we buy recs to offset our electricity usage. So that's, you know, roughly another six points. You know, and then there's other different pieces like the sequestration, right, that some facilities have and others don't. So you can kind of back into some rough scores, you know, that way, you know, the Farm Forward Program is now going to create, you know, a different level of calculation that will be dependent on what farming practices and how much farmer originated corn that we can receive at each facility, which is why, you know, the capital improvements such as, you know, adding the storage to wood River and some of the other ones that we've talked about is so important because it allows us to take more farmer-originated corn. Um, you know. There's definitely, we've talked about the net negative score at Central City that we're looking towards. So, you know, each facility we're looking at closely to see, you know, what is, what makes the most sense from a capital perspective. You know, we want to make sure that what we're putting in and we're getting the returns out of it. And we've got a window here with 45B. You know, we don't have an expectation that it's necessarily going to be extended in the same format. that it is today. So really everything, you know, we want to be able to accomplish and see the returns quickly. But also for perpetuity. You know, if we can see these projects that reduce our natural gas or reduce our electricity, that's something that's going to be great for the entire platform, even beyond 45Z.
Yeah, just to add maybe a little bit to what Ann answered there, you know, with the five-point rounding adjustments, you know, we have a line of sight to hitting those type numbers in each of our locations and really focused on, you know, getting Central City to that net negative level, and then we'll work on, even in parallel, the rest of the location to try to maximize the opportunity and reduce the overall OPEX in our plants. And, you know, I can say with certainty that we're working as efficiently as we can to, you know, quantify the total capex of these projects and then get them executed in parallel. But as we've mentioned in previous calls, you know, we want to do all of these things with absolute discipline. We want to measure twice and cut once and make sure that what we are putting in is going to work effectively and it's going to be providing value for the long haul.
Got it. That's very helpful. And then just for my follow-up question, because a lot has already been covered, I guess I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts on, from a policy perspective, now that the midterms are behind us, like, how are you thinking about 2027 and some of the opportunities for the biofuel industry? Versus some of the risks. I'd just like to get your quick thoughts on that and maybe as investors what we should be looking out for.
Yeah, thanks for the question. You know, obviously top of mind for a lot of folks right now. You know, the thing that we've always said and, you know, continue to fully believe is that, you know, ethanol is really bipartisan. So, you know, it's applicable. Both sides of the aisle. And we've had, we do have great relationships and we'll continue to have really great relationships with all legislative, all legislators that are, you know, within the different states that we have assets. You know, there's some new ones. Obviously, there's the results of this week, you know, definitely mix things up a bit in some areas. And, you know, we're excited to build those new relationships. And for, you know, the ones that maybe aren't as familiar with ethanol, we always see that as an opportunity for us to go and share our story and, you know, why we believe they should be very bullish on ethanol and help us as far as driving policy. and protecting the farmers.
Thank you.
We have reached the end of the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Chris Wysowski for closing remarks.
Thanks, everyone, for joining our call today and your continued interest in Green Plains. We look forward to giving you another great update next quarter.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.
20:53 to 43:46 · One card per analyst, follow-ups included. Each plays from its start, and the one being answered is marked.
Hi, good afternoon, and thank you for the question. You know, Chris, it's been just over a year since you took on the role, and I just have to start by acknowledging what a year you've really had. It's just been tremendous to see the execution. I know it takes a team, but I just wanted to acknowledge that. So, against…
Chris Osowski: Well, thanks for the acknowledgement, Kristen. And as you mentioned, it takes a team to get the results that we're getting. And I definitely appreciate everyone at Green Plains who's contributed a lot to improving our business. As it pertains to the run rate…
Also speaking: Anne Reese
Thanks, and good afternoon, and congrats on the very strong results. Chris, I wanted to ask about capital allocation. Thanks for outlining your priorities, but I was wondering if you could put maybe a few numbers around two of the components. You mentioned that you're looking to reduce debt. I believe at one point…
Chris Osowski: Okay, appreciate the question. And when it comes to debt reduction, of course, we have plans in place to take care of some convertible debt in early 2027. But as it pertains to growth CapEx, we would expect that 20 to 25 number to bump up into 2027. We have a…
Also speaking: Emre Havasi
Good afternoon, and thanks for the question here. I just wanted to maybe get your comment. You alluded to strong export demand, but maybe wanted to get your sense as to how much visibility you have. Into continued momentum in 27. Are there particular markets that we've made gains in or maybe are planning to make gains…
Emre Havasi: Yeah, this is Imre again. Thanks for the question. Yes, we do expect exports to move even higher than current levels. I mean, if you go back, 24, we exported a little over 2 billion gallons, 25, 2.3, a little north of 2.3. We're going to probably end the year…
Also speaking: Chris Osowski
Hey, everyone. Congratulations on the really strong quarterly performance and string of strong performances to date. My first question has to do with the CI levels of your existing asset base, and I'm wondering how much runway you have on improving your existing asset base CI level, and what type of capital investment…
Anne Reese: Hey, Ben, this is Anne. I'll maybe start and then let Chris kind of chime in with some additional CapEx that we're looking at. You know, overall, you know, we haven't given specific scores for each plant because they really are, you know, each one is different…
Also speaking: Chris Osowski
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