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Earnings call · FY2025 Q4
Executive readout · one minute
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Confident
Net tone +72 · low hedging
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6 guided metrics
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From the 8-K filed Feb 17, 2026.
| Metric | Period | Guided | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue
First Quarter 2026
|
$1B – $1.08B | — | |
|
Gross margin
First Quarter 2026
|
45% – 47% | — | |
|
Non-GAAP operating expenses
First Quarter 2026
|
$265M – $275M | Non-GAAP | |
|
Non-GAAP net earnings per diluted share
First Quarter 2026
|
$1.72 – $2.28 | Non-GAAP | |
|
Non-GAAP net earnings
First Quarter 2026
|
$117M – $155M | Non-GAAP | |
|
Adjusted EBITDA
First Quarter 2026
|
$227M – $275M | — |
How the reported period landed and where the business moved.
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Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the MKS fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star 11 on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star 11 again. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Paritash Misra. Please go ahead, sir.
Good morning, everyone. I'm Paritash Misra, Vice President of Investor Relations, and I'm joined this morning by John Lee, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Ram Mampurut, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Yesterday, after market close, we released our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025, which are posted to our investor website at investor.mks.com. As a reminder, various remarks about future expectations, plans, and prospects for MKS comprise forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various important factors, including those discussed in yesterday's press release and in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and any subsequent quarterly report on Form 10-Q. These statements represent the company's expectations only as of today and should not be relied upon as representing the company's estimates or views as of any day subsequent to today, and the company disclaims any obligation to update these statements. During the call, we will be discussing various non-GAAP financial measures. Unless otherwise noted, all income statement-related financial measures will be non-GAAP other than revenue and gross margin. Please refer to our press release and the presentation materials posted to the investor relations sections of our website for information regarding our non-GAAP financial results and a reconciliation to our GAAP measures. Our investor website also provides a detailed breakout of revenues by NMarket and Division. Now, I'll turn the call over to John.
Thanks, Paritash, and good morning, everyone. 2025 was a year of impressive execution for MKS in a gradually improving demand environment. Year over year, we delivered 10% sales growth, 20% EPS growth, and over 20% free cash flow growth. We maintained strong gross margins despite trade policy dynamics, while staying focused on delivering for our customers, investing in our business, and proactively bringing down our leverage. We're proud of our accomplishments in 2025 and grateful for the continued support and collaboration of our customers, suppliers, and employees. Our partnerships and engagement have been critical as we work together to deliver the broadest portfolio of differentiated solutions that are foundational to advance electronics in the AI era. As we begin 2026, the demand outlook across our semiconductor and electronics and packaging markets is strengthening and we are already seeing this in the ambitious capex plans announced by large chip manufacturers mks mks has a long track record of outperforming wfe in rising spending environments and we are in an excellent position with a broad and deep portfolio of designed in products that are foundational to semiconductor manufacturing and electronics and packaging i'll highlight some examples as i review our financial and end market performance Our Q4 revenue, gross margin, and earnings per diluted share all came in above the midpoint of the guidance ranges we provided on our Q3 call in November. Revenue was strong across all three of our end markets. In our semiconductor market, revenue was above the high end of our guidance, driven primarily by subsistence serving etching deposition applications in the DRAM and logic foundry markets. Our plasma and reactive gases business delivered another strong quarter. We also maintain healthy momentum in dissolved gases for advanced logic applications and in back-end applications related to high-bandwidth memory. Order activity in both areas remains robust. NAND-related activity remains stable sequentially as expected. Most of these are the note that our semiconductor business outperformed estimated WFE growth for the full year 2025, consistent with our track record of outperforming industry spending in improving demand environments. Looking to the first quarter, we expect semiconductor revenue to be up on a sequential basis. We believe this outlook is consistent with market views of steady improvement in industry spending over the course of the year. With our global footprint, broad product portfolio, and deep technical expertise, we are ready to respond to demand as it comes with solutions that solve our customers' hardest problems and enable their increasingly complex roadmaps. On that front, we are excited to be ramping our new supercenter factory in Malaysia in the second half of this year, which will give us added capacity and resiliency to meet our customers' needs. Turning to electronics and packaging, revenue came in near the high end of our guidance. The sequential increase was primarily driven by increased flexible PCB drilling and chemistry equipment sales. The flex market continued to largely follow seasonal patterns tied to smartphone and PC cycles. And we also saw continued momentum in orders for our chemistry and chemistry equipment solutions for advanced PCBs related to AI applications. ai is driving increasing packaging complexity and we are uniquely positioned to help our customers with the broadest portfolio of differentiated solutions excluding the impact of fx and palladium pass-through chemistry sales increased 16 percent in the fourth quarter and 11 for the full year compared to the same periods in 2024 reflecting another year of healthy growth when we acquired Out of Tech in 2022, we saw the importance of advanced packaging for electronic devices well ahead of many in our industry. With AI now rapidly driving demand for more complex PCBs with rapidly increasing numbers of layers, we are seeing growth despite multi-year softness in smartphones and PCs. Looking ahead to Q1 and the anticipated seasonal impact from the Lunar New Year holiday, we expect electronics and packaging revenue to be up slightly sequentially and to increase in a low 20% range year-over-year. Key drivers for our expected performance in Q1 include higher flexible PCB drilling revenue and a continued strong performance in our chemistry equipment business. In our specialty industrial market, revenues came in at the high end of our guidance. We saw sequential improvement in research and defense in certain industrial applications. Looking ahead to Q1, we expect specialty industrial revenue to decline low to mid-single digits, mainly due to the Lunar New Year holiday, which impacts our general metal finishing business. Year over year, we expect revenue to be up in the mid-single digits, led by the industrial and research and defense markets. Overall, our specialty industrial market continues to deliver steady performance and contribute attractive cash flows. Our fourth quarter performance in Outlook for Q1 underscore our strong position across our two key end markets. In SEMI, we continue to strengthen our position in supporting leading-edge foundry and high bandwidth memory investment through our vacuum and photonics offerings, while also remaining well-positioned to capitalize on large-scale investment in NAND equipment upgrades expected over the next several years. In electronics and packaging, we are demonstrating momentum with equipment and chemistries ideally suited to supporting smaller more complex and more vertical packaging structures for AI and other emerging devices such as foldable phones we set this business to grow over time as we realize the long-term revenue streams from proprietary chemistries moving through production lines built with our equipment secular drivers powering our end markets are fully intact present exciting opportunities for MKS in the years to come our business is in a strong position with a resilient global footprint and margins that reflect the value we deliver and strong free cash flows that we are reinvesting into the business and using to pay down debt lastly we are proud to have been honored for the third consecutive year as one of america's most responsible companies by newsweek and statistic an honor that reflects our continued focus and commitment to our people customers and suppliers now let me turn it over to ram to run through the financial results at first quarter guidance in more detail. Ram? Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone.
We ended the year with a very strong fourth quarter. Demand increased across all three end markets. We delivered healthy margins, robust free cash flow, and made meaningful progress on our deleveraging goals. That progress has continued into the new year with another $100 million voluntary prepayment on our term loan in February, as well as further optimization of our capital structure with the recently completed issuance of a billion euro senior unsecured notes and the refinancing and extension of our term loan maturities. I'll cover these topics in detail in my remarks. Let me start with the results for the fourth quarter. MKS reported revenue of 1.03 billion, up 5% sequentially and 10% year over year. Fourth quarter semiconductor revenue was $435 million, up 5% sequentially and 9% year-over-year. The result was driven by strengthening demand, especially in DRAM and logic and foundry applications. The sequential increase was led by plasma and reactive gases products. Year-over-year comparisons reflect more broad-based strength across many product categories providing further evidence of an improving semi-demand environment fourth quarter electronics and packaging revenue was 303 million an increase of five percent quarter over quarter and 19 percent year over year this sequential improvement reflected higher flexible pcp drilling and chemistry equipment sales the strong year-over-year comparison reflected healthy underlying growth across chemistry, flexible drilling equipment, and chemistry equipment. Chemistry sales in the quarter were up 16% year-over-year, excluding the impact of FX and Palladium pass-through, marking another strong year in chemistry revenue. In our specialty industrial market, fourth quarter revenue was $2.95 million, an increase of 4% sequentially, largely due to the improvement in our research and defense markets, as well as certain industrial applications. This was partially offset by a decline in automotive. Revenue was up 5% on a year-over-year basis, supported by modest improvement across several of our key market categories. However, automotive segment remained soft. Turning to gross margin, we reported fourth quarter gross margin of 46.4%, which was about the midpoint of our guidance. While margins were down year over year, it was a very solid performance given ongoing impact from higher tariffs, higher palladium prices which are passed through at zero margin and the effect of higher chemistry equipment in our overall mix. Fourth quarter operating expenses were $263 million, slightly above the guidance range, primarily due to higher variable compensation due to stronger than expected results. Fourth quarter operating income was approximately $217 million, yielding an operating margin of 21%, which is above our guidance midpoint. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA was $249 million, yielding 24.1% margin and also above the midpoint of our guidance. Net interest expenses was $42 million. Fourth quarter effective tax rate was 1%, which was in line with our guidance. We finished the year strong with fourth quarter net earnings of $168 million, or $2.47 per diluted share, which is above the midpoint of our guidance. We closed the forum with approximately $1.4 billion of liquidity, comprised of cash and cash equivalents of $675 million and our under-undervolving credit facility of $675 million. Net debt at year-end was $3.6 billion. That combined with improving adjusted EBITDA resulted in a net leverage ratio of 3.7 times based on full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $966 million. Quickly summarizing our full year 2025 results, revenue was $3.9 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Semiconductor revenue totaled $1.7 billion, up a healthy 13% year-over-year, driven by plasma and reactive gases and vacuum products. Our service business remained a steady and meaningful growth contributor. Electronics and packaging revenue was $1.1 billion in 2025, up a strong 20% year-over-year. Total chemistry sales increased 11% year-over-year, excluding the impact of foreign exchange and palladium pass-through. Specialty industrial revenue was $1.1 billion, down 4% year-over-year, primarily driven by softness in industrial markets, including automotive. Gross margin was 46.7%, down 90 basis points year over year, driven by additional costs related to tariffs and product mix, including record chemistry equipment sales. We moved quickly during the year to mitigate the impact of tariffs. That impact was largely mitigated on a dollar-for-dollar basis by the fourth quarter, but will still continue to impact gross margin by about 50 basis points. Full-year operating margin was 20.7%, down 60 basis points year-over-year as a result of lower gross margin. However, our operating expenses' percentage of sales was 26% and improved by 30 basis points year-over-year. Let me now turn to cash flow and balance sheet discussion. For 2025, we generated operating cash flow of $645 million, an improvement of $117 million year-over-year even with an uptick in capital expenses full-year free cash flow was 497 million an increase of 21% year-over-year and reflective of a very healthy conversion rate of our non-GAAP debt earnings in 2025 they made a total of 400 million of voluntary prepayments on our terminal this month we made another voluntary prepayment of $100 million. Since February 2024, we have paid down over a billion dollars of our debt. We continue to remain focused on deleveraging. We also closed a few key financing transactions in recent weeks. The repricing of our term loan facility reduced credit spreads on our U.S. term loan by 25 basis points and the euro loan by 50 basis points. In connection with this repricing, we increased the size of our revolver to $1 billion. Finally, our successful $1 billion euro bond offering has allowed us to diversify our capital structure, reduce interest rates on our debt, replace a portion of our secured debt with unsecured debt, and extend our maturities. Based on current interest rates, the combined effect of these actions we took in this month will reduce annual interest expenses on a run rate basis by approximately 27 million in addition to lowering interest rates these transactions will provide greater flexibility for the company finally during the quarter we paid a dividend of 20 22 cents per share or 15 million dollars as we announced last week the vote authorized and 14% increase in the next dividend which is payable in early March let me now turn to first quarter outlook we expect revenue of 1.04 billion plus or minus 40 million buy-in market our first quarter outlook is as follows revenue from semiconductor market is expected to be 450 million plus or minus 15 million revenue from electronics and packaging market is expected to be 305 million plus or minus 15 million and revenue from more speciality industrial market is expected to be 285 million plus or minus 10 million based on anticipated revenue levels and product mix including sequentially lower chemistry sales due to the lunar new year we estimate first quarter gross margin of 46% plus or minus 100 basis points we expect first quarter operating expenses of 270 million plus or minus 5 million looking to the rest of the year we will continue to invest in the growth of our business but we expect operating expenses to grow at a rate slower than revenue we estimate first quarter adjusted EBITDA of 251 million plus or minus 24 We expect capital expenditures to average in the 4% to 5% of revenue through 2026.
We expect a tax rate of approximately 21% in the first quarter.
For the year, we expect our tax rate to be in the range of 18% to 20%. Based on these assumptions, we expect first quarter net earnings per diluted share of $2 plus or minus 28 cents. Wrapping up, MKS continues to execute at a high level, meeting growing customer demand and maintaining strong profitability. We continue to prioritize making the necessary investments of the business and proactive deleveraging.
We believe that we are in an excellent position to capitalize on what we expect to be a robust demand environment. with that operator please open the call for questions thank you as a reminder if you would like to ask a question please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced to withdraw your question please press star one one again we ask that you please limit yourself to one question or one follow-up before re-entering the queue one moment for our first question our first question comes from the line of steve arger with key bank capital markets your Your line is open. Steve, please go ahead.
Thank you. I wanted to start with the 46% gross margin midpoint guide. How much of that is from chemistry equipment mix? And does the lower 1Q sequentially suggest an upward inflection in 2Q from higher chemistry sales volume? Or how do you expect that to play out as the year progresses?
Hi, Steve. This is Rahm. I'll take that. I'll start with your second question. The answer is yes. It is due to the seasonality from lower chemistry driven by Lunar New Year, and we expect the mix to improve in Q2 and further in Q3. So mix is the main reason for the 46 plus or minus 100 basis points guide.
Got it. So that should be the low point of the year, understood. good. And John, can we just talk about the memory shortage? Seems like that could be both good or bad for you. Can you talk about what you're seeing with NAND tool upgrades and other memory investments that could be coming? And then, can you talk about what happens with consumer products, just given the increase that you're seeing in the market?
Yes, Steve. Good morning. So, I think, you know, the customers and our customers' customers are, you know, putting a lot of the investments in DRAM, obviously, for AI, and that's causing this crunch in terms of availability of memory. I would say this, the industry is moving very fast to try to meet those demands. You see a lot of announcements of fabs going up and whatnot. And then more recently, NAND has become potentially a bottleneck as well in terms of availability. And so you saw one large chip company announce a new NAND factory brand brand new greenfield that's out a little ways but that's good because it extends the the ramps you will in terms of upgrades i think you know our customers are best to answer that uh i would say this we have plenty of capacity uh to meet those uh upgrades should they come and as a reminder um our position in our power for nand vertical channel etching allows us to enjoy upgrades almost as much as a Greenfield so I think NAND is something that's going to be kind of icing on the cake as that happens throughout the year and the next couple years.
Got it and then just in any comment on consumer products you know what the potential effect could be?
Yeah I mean you know I think it's going to depend on how much availability there is you know I think you read some analyst reports people were kind of thinking maybe low single digit decreases in PCs and phones, but that really is going to be dynamic throughout the year. I think it's really going to be a function of how fast the industry can make those chips for that segment of the market. So, I think, you know, if we have a little decrease in PCs and smartphones, I think it's going to be more than made up with AI. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Jim Rakuti with Needham and Company. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you. Good morning. Yeah, I'm wondering if we look at the electronics and packaging business, the 20% plus growth in 2025. Bob, John, any sense as to how much of that was a function of capacity additions? And, you know, I'm curious how much of a tailwind would you anticipate this being in 2026 in this area of the business?
Yeah, it's a good question, Jim. I think what we said also was that while the electronics and packaging grew 20 percent, chemistry grew about 11 percent year over year. So that's great growth, too. So chemistry would be more utilization-dependent. And then the rest of that growth is capacity additions from chemistry equipment as well as flex-driven equipment. So we've talked about our chemistry equipment. That's a nice leading indicator of future chemistry revenue. We're now into the fifth quarter of strong bookings and revenue for that. I think in the past we talked about the first half of 26, you know, our factories are full through then. I think we're not going to guide bookings going forward in equipment, but I would say the difference between 90 days ago is we continue to see strong bookings in chemistry. So I think that continues, and that's really just something that over time will lead to that high gross margin chemistry revenue that will be on our production equipment.
Thanks. And a follow-up, just on you highlighted the improving demand in DCB drilling equipment. How would you characterize the recovery that you're seeing in this part of the business versus previous cycles? I know it's been a while since we've seen a decent upturn in this business.
Yeah, I know you've covered ESI for a long time, Jim. I would say, you know, there was a super cycle, you know, maybe four or five years ago. This is more like a normal cycle, so probably two years now where it's kind of been more normalized. So we're happy to see that. We're happy to see that our share continues to be very strong and that some new devices that we talked about, fault of phones, are driving more flex demand. So I think I would characterize this as not a super cycle, if you will, for flex, a more of a normalized cycle that we have expected on a more consistent basis throughout the years. Thank you.
Thanks, Jim.
Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Melissa Weathers with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Hey there. Thank you for the question. John, I was hoping to ask you to pull out your crystal ball and get your opinion on WSE growth this year.
So we've heard some pretty strong outlooks from some of your customers and peers on WFE any sense of magnitude or how are you guys thinking about like the magnitude of growth the equipment spending could have this year and then how should we think about that flowing through to your semiconductor system sales yes I'll pull out my crystal ball Melissa and it's cloudy but I guess it's a positive a couple of our edge customers are talking about 20% year-over-year WFE growth a couple of our you know lithometrology customers are talking more in the you know mid-teens if you will so you put it all together um wfc will be a large grower and i think more importantly i think everybody's kind of assuming it's more than just a one-year thing it's going to be a cycle that maybe lasts longer than that um mcas is always uh outperformed during the upturn that's just math everything's designed in already in an upturn people just ordering things that are already designed in We have to ship before our customers can ship. At the same time, during a ramp, our customers are going to try to build inventory. And so all that leads to outperformance. Even in 2025, when there wasn't really a ramp, I believe we will have shown that we outperformed WSE, even in a relatively, you know, stable 2025. And I would say in my commentary, you know, a couple months ago, the ramp has started. we have started. Supply chain teams are working hard with our suppliers. We're in constant communication with our customers, and everybody in the industry is getting ready for this ramp, and MKS, as you know, is supporting 85 percent of WFE, so we're going to see all of that, and we're really looking forward to meeting that demand.
I think we also talked about the Malaysia plant, which will come online mid-year, and that will give us just extra flexibility in the future but our fab our factories today are ready to meet the demand that we see in the next year or two perfect thank you and then maybe following up on something you've already touched on on the call but the ability for the AI side of things to sort of offset the any slowness that we could see in consumer electronics and you talked about like the board complexity and layer counts going up for AI boards, is there any other way to quantify, like, what is your revenue opportunity with a 2026 or 2027 board versus what you've seen in the past? Just any other way to frame how we should think about that content opportunity and sort of how much that could offset any weakness on the consumer electronics side?
Yeah, maybe the way I think about it is, you know, let's take smartphones. You know, the number of layers in the PCBs for smartphones could be in that, you know, 10 to 12 layers, give or take, and it's increasing as well. But the HDI type of boards for AI are, you know, in that 15 to 20 already. And in addition, AI also needs multilayer boards, which are in the 30 to 40 layers. And then, of course, the substrates, the package substrate layers. So I would say that PCs and smartphones, the number of layers is consistent. It goes up a couple layers every cycle. But AI, you know, we're talking about doubling the number of layers. And so we've talked about it in the past that our chemistry revenue from AI in 2024 was about 5% of our revenue, our chemistry revenue in electronics and packaging. And now in 2025 it's 10%. And I would say it's a sequential increase quarter and quarter and quarter and 25. So we expect AI to continue taking a larger percentage of our chemistry revenue, even with a slightly muted PC and smartphone market.
That's super helpful.
Thank you.
Thank you, Melissa.
Thank you. And one moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Michael Manny with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks so much for taking the questions. To start, I just wanted to ask about your capacity position. With this Malaysia facility fully ramping over the next course of next year, how much revenue do you think that could ultimately support for your business? And if there's any way to kind of quantify how much footprint has expanded for you over the last couple of years, that'd be great. And then as you look out, are there any other Are there areas where you feel like you need to invest in your capacity position? I know there's a Thailand facility that you're ramping up. I believe that's for chemistry, but anywhere else where you anticipate any supply constraints. Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Mike, for the question. I think with Malaysia, it was built as a business continuity plan. It wasn't built to anticipate it needed more capacity for this particular ramp. We already have plenty of factory capacity for that. I think Malaysia's kind of think about it as a future capacity needs for WFE. We haven't sized it. I would say this, we always build our factories in phases. So we have the shell, and then we'll put in a certain amount of lines and product lines, beginning, middle of this year, and then we'll plan on what makes sense to grow there. But it will give us a lot more capacity than we have currently. I would say we've added a little bit of tap-backs here and there, kind of nip and tuck with our factories in anticipation of this particular cycle. But we had talked about being ready for 125 billion WFE three years ago, and we did that. And remember that 125 billion is run rate. We always have 30% surge capacity in addition to that. So I think we're quite comfortable with our capability. I think always in RAMP, the constraints are, you know, supply chain. Our suppliers are better, they're bigger, they're ready, but, you know, the golden screw effect will happen. And so that's really where our execution has always been among the best, is finding those issues and then dealing with them and delivering to our customers on time. And we've always done that through every cycle. So I'm very confident we'll have the capacity, we have the team, and the supply base to help us deliver to our customers this ramp as well.
Very helpful. And just moving on to electronics and packaging. So as you look out over this next year, is it fair to say that most of the growth this year that is sustainable in this kind of double-digit growth area would be, would largely come from more chemistry revenue now that you've seen significant equipment orders over the last couple months that, you know, are going to be ramping in terms of utilization? And then more broadly, and this kind of relates to the previous question, I think in the past you've said that every $100 million in install equipment translates to $20 to $40 million in chemistry sales per year for legalization. So I just wanted to ask, what are the sensitivities around that? You know, is the revenue function much higher if it's a substrate versus an MLB? And as your customers are talking about, you know, pushing the number of layers to, you know, over 100, Like, what does that do to that attach rate for revenue?
Yeah, thanks, Michael. I think, in general, our model is still the same. 20 to 40 million is per $100 million of equipment sales. And, you know, it doesn't really change too much between particular types of boards. And it's really a function of utilization. So if that tool is running 100%, then you're getting into that 20 to 40 million range. And then, you know, I think in general, we're just very happy with the continued shipments of our equipment. As I said in the earlier question, it continues to get better, continues to be consistently strong, even from a quarter ago. So if that's the case, then we will have had potentially two good years of record level chemistry equipment shipments. Now, I also think we've talked about how long does it take for a piece of equipment to, you know, turn into chemistry revenue. We've said 18 to 24 months. That's still the case. So a lot of the chemistry revenue that you saw grow in 2025 was with equipment we shipped in 2021, 2022. And so that's why I think that equipment we're shipping now will be great capacity for future chemistry, you know, going forward into 26, 20, end of 26, 27, and going forward. So just want to make sure that was clear. The chemistry revenue now is not constrained by the equipment we're shipping. That chemistry revenue is growing because of the capacity we've already shifted in terms of equipment a few years ago. Thanks, Sean. Thanks, Mike.
Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Shane Britt with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Thank you for letting me ask a question. I want to follow up on Manny's question. Just based on the knowledge you currently have, should we be anticipating chemistry revenue to accelerate or decelerate in 2026?
And I'm asking this because I want to better figure out just how much of this chemistry revenue is associated with just, you know, higher growth AI or should be kind of benefiting from a higher install base but how much could be impacted by just weaker consumer electronic sales thank you yeah shane i think uh well there is a seasonality to the chemistry revenue as ron pointed out so q1 is for the consumer product cycle type of products is lowest because of luna new year and then you know the consumer products chemistry will continue to grow throughout the year that's the consumer product cycle to your point if there's a you know six single-digit decrease then we'll see that in that chemistry revenue for that market but at the same time AI chemistry is really we are expecting that to continue to grow all our customers that are in that AI supply chain are running capacity. They continue to add tools and bring those tools up. So I think, as I said, that's why I expect that even with a slight decrease in PCs and smartphones, the AI part of the chemistry will more than make up for that.
Got it. Thank you. And for my follow-up, so on the E&P tooling side, late last year, you sort of mentioned that, you know, your book's the first half of 2026. Just how should What should I think about this E&P tool, your current capacity for E&P tools relative to the existing demand for these tools?
Yeah, I think, you know, we've added some capacity. We didn't need to build a new factory, if that's your question. And we've been able to meet the timing demands of our customers, even at these elevated levels. And as I said, you know, earlier in the commentary, based on changes from 90 days ago, we continue to see these strong lookings. so so I think it's going to be another strong year for equipment and our capacity to meet the timelines need by customers right now it's sufficient we're not constraining our customers thank you thank you thank you one moment for our next question our next question comes from the line of David Lu with Masuho your line is open please go ahead hi thank you for asking let me ask the question.
I'm on for Vijay. Maybe a first one, just back on WSE, I think your customers and peers have mentioned second half weighted strength and acceleration. Do you think like we can see that semi-revenue hit probably a five-handle starting in September, December?
Sorry, David, Do we have five handle on? Semis revenue. Semis revenue, I see. We're guiding 450 or something. Well, I would say this. You know, if WFE grows in that same range between, you know, 15 to 20 percent, as many of our customers are saying, we're going to have to ship ahead of that. We're going to have to ship to build that revenue for their inventory. I think in the past, we have hit that five-handle at the last ramp. That wasn't constraints from our factory. That's constraints from supply chain, right? And so I think we're better at managing supply chain. I think the supply chain is better. So a five-handle would not be surprising. I just can't predict what it would be. But in order to meet a 20% WFE increase, we have to get to a five-handle probably as MKS. Otherwise, the industry won't get to that 20%. Got it.
And then a longer-term question. I think part of the industry is beginning to look at moving to panel for advanced packaging.
Just wondering what kind of conversations you guys are starting to have there in the advanced packaging side and if there's any sort of outlook or timeline that benefits MKSI. yeah I think you're referring to you know redistribution layers going from wafer shapes to panel rectangular shapes and I think you know many customers are working on that and of course when they go to panel that's MKS we are participating the wafer type of packaging but our strength has always been in panels and so that is a tailwind for MKS but as I've mentioned in the past you know that's kind of one or two layers of redistribution layers and that is still relatively small in terms of market growth for us because the HDI and MLB are growing at you know 10 layers a year or more each so while the tailwind I think we don't want to miss the bigger picture which is that the number of layers of MLB and HDI and package substrates are growing much faster thank you thank you and as a reminder if you would like to ask a question please press star one one on your telephone our next question will come from the line of peter ping with jp morgan your line is open please go ahead hey guys thanks for taking my question um some of your um semi customers are already talking about inventory build have you seen that in your in the second half of 2025 or are you starting to see that now in terms of inventory built yeah well you can look at their inventory numbers and you'll see if it's building but i would say this peter um you know a lot of the conversations on getting ready happened in that q4 time frame and they have continued to accelerate in the in the q1 time frame um and so uh you know we're ramping our factories in our supply chain um and i think it will take a little while to to show up as inventory build in our customers because right now we're as a supply chain we're all just getting ready to just meet the higher demand so you'll probably see that build up in their inventory numbers over the next couple quarters but uh you know we are still shipping to demand at this point just because we're just in the early stages of that ramp Got it.
And then there's a lot of, I guess, constraints and greenfield capacities even from your end customers. As you kind of engage, is there any, I guess, are you seeing any constraints from your customers where they just don't have enough space to move equipment yet? And so maybe you can talk about that dynamic.
I have not heard that, Peter. I think, you know, our customers are well-run customers. they have large factories located you know globally um at the last ramp we all added you know capacity got more efficient so i i don't see that as a constraint in terms of uh you know not enough space to build the tools if that was your question yeah okay thank you in one moment for our next question our next question comes from the line of joe quatrici with wells fargo your line is open please go ahead yeah thanks for taking the questions uh maybe just kind of on that line of thinking on the simi business you know you're guiding for kind of three-ish percent sequential growth and i think some of your main customers are guiding for high single digit low double digit uh sequential growth for the first quarter so just kind of curious if you could kind of give us the puts and takes there yeah joe i think uh you know we're guiding based on what we uh you know our best view today um you know but i think uh you know you've been in this industry a long time when that ramp occurs it just accelerates fast um this is our best view today uh but during a ramp as you know things can accelerate rapidly um and uh and so you know we're going to stick to this guidance uh but certainly we give a range um and even last quarter right we gave a range and we went higher than the upper end of that range uh and that's kind of a characteristic take the ramps. And so this is what we see today. I would say this, if we could ship more, our customers would probably take it. So we're trying to ramp as fast as we can.
I think that's helpful. And then maybe just as we think about the ramps of the course of the year and think about just the percentage on gross margin, should we still think about 50% as kind of incremental gross margin leverage, just thinking about, you know, the tariff dynamic as well.
Hi Joe, this is Rahm. I'll take that.
The quick answer is yes.
We are very pleased with the gross margin for 2025. If it weren't for tariffs, we would have been to your point, over 47%. And if you remember, last three quarters, we were focused on mitigating the cost of the tariffs. And by Q4, we offset the cost dollar for dollar. And going forward, we'll be focused more on mitigating the impact on the gross margin itself. So, yes, the volume and the right mix will certainly get us back to the 47%.
Thank you.
Thank you. And again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. Our next question will come from the line of James Schneider with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. Just as a clarification, initially, you talked about your semi-customers citing a 15% to 20% outlook and your ability to kind of, you know, do towards the high end of that, presumably given the mix of your customers and mix of your business. You've also just referenced potential constraints in terms of ramping your production. Can maybe you just give us clarity on, you know, whether you see yourselves as constrained in your ability to ship in the next two quarters? Do you think you'll be able to catch up to your customers' full demand, unconstrained demand run rates by the middle of the year, at least?
Yeah, I'll say this, Jim. You know, during the beginning of the ramp, you know, we're never the constraint because I think, you know, we have a supply chain with inventory as well. And even during the peak ramp and even after, you know, many quarters of a ramp, we have never constrained our major customers. And I think it's an industry that's always met demand as an entire semiconductor industry. And, you know, companies that don't meet demand and constrain their customers, they're not around anymore, right? And so I think we have plenty of capacity. The challenge is getting the supply chain to ramp up.
But even then, you know, our biggest customers have always been a priority, and we've never disappointed them very clear thank you and then just in terms of how we think about the forward model you've clearly stated that you expect to grow OPEX slower than revenue but give us a sense about the level of leverage expect their place to one or is there yeah hi Jim so if you look at so we will be investing we watch our OPEX very carefully but we will be investing this year to support the growth but in terms of leverage that will be a focus to drive our leverage further if you look at 24 to 25 our opex dollars grew but our opex as a percentage of sales was lower so we finished around 26 for 25 and 26 will be lower than that thank you and i would now like and the conference back over to Peritash Mejraaf for closing remarks.
Thank you all for joining us today and for your interest in MTS. Operator, you may close the call, please.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating, and you may now disconnect.
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