Summary
Earnings days have become bigger events for S&P 500 stocks. In 2026 so far, 13.3% of earnings reports moved the stock 10% or more on the first trading day after the results, more than one report in eight. In 2021 it was 4.4%, about one in 23. The average move grew from 3.4% to 5.3%, and the median from 2.6% to 3.9%.
Across all 12,353 reports from April 2020 to 23 October 2026, the average move was 4.6% and the median 3.3%, about three times a normal trading day for the same stock. A third of reports (33.4%) moved the stock 5% or more. Gains and losses were close to even: 48.9% of reports sent the stock down.
The size of the move depends on the business. Technology companies moved 8.0% on average over the last four quarters, and 28.2% of their reports moved the stock 10% or more. Utilities moved 1.9%. Four companies averaged more than 15% over their last eight reports, led by AppLovin (APP $260.25 -1.52%) at 17.6%.
The current reporting season has started calmly. The 108 reports through 23 October moved stocks 3.6% on average, against 4.0% in the same weeks of 2025 and 4.1% in 2024, but the early weeks are mostly banks and industrial companies. From 26 to 30 October, 133 S&P 500 companies hold their calls, including Alphabet and Microsoft.
The data behind this piece
Explore the primary data Equibles carries for APP:
Abstract
We measure the stock price move on the first trading session after 12,353 quarterly earnings releases by 493 current S&P 500 companies, from April 2020 to 23 October 2026. Each release is the company's item 2.02 Form 8-K (results of operations) filed on or just before its earnings call, and its time is the SEC's acceptance timestamp. A release before 4 p.m. New York time is measured by that day's close-to-close return; a release after the close, by the next session's. The move is compared with the stock's median daily move over the previous 55 trading sessions.
The average move was 4.6%, the median 3.3%, and 9.6% of reports moved the stock 10% or more. Moves were smallest in 2021 and have grown since: the average reached 5.1% in 2024 and 5.3% in 2026 to date, and the share of 10% moves tripled. The same trend holds for the 358 companies that reported in every year of the sample. Technology and communication services stocks move most and utilities least. Releases after the close are followed by bigger moves than releases before the open, partly because technology companies mostly report after the close. On average, a big earnings move is not followed by a further move in the same direction the next day.
Earnings moves have grown since 2021
2021 was the calmest year for earnings reactions in the sample. Reports from July to September 2021 moved stocks 3.0% on average, the lowest of any quarter, and only 4.1% moved the stock 10% or more. Moves grew in 2022, held steady in 2023 and rose again in 2024. The average for reports from April to June 2026, 5.6%, is the highest of any quarter since 2020.
The change is clearest in the tail. The share of reports followed by a move of 10% or more rose from 4.4% in 2021 to 12.6% in 2024 and 13.3% in 2026 to date. The highest quarter was July to September 2025, at 15.1%. Moves of 20% or more, once rare, came after 2.2% of reports this year.
The increase is not just newer, more volatile companies joining the index. Among the 358 companies that reported in every year of the sample, the average move rose from 3.3% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2026, and the share of 10% moves from 4.1% to 13.2%.
| Reports from | Reports | Average move | Median move | 5% or more | 10% or more | 20% or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April to December 2020 | 1,361 | 4.0% | 3.0% | 29.0% | 6.3% | 0.8% |
| 2021 | 1,852 | 3.4% | 2.6% | 22.1% | 4.4% | 0.2% |
| 2022 | 1,870 | 4.6% | 3.3% | 33.6% | 8.8% | 1.4% |
| 2023 | 1,883 | 4.4% | 3.3% | 32.3% | 8.7% | 1.1% |
| 2024 | 1,920 | 5.1% | 3.9% | 38.9% | 12.6% | 1.7% |
| 2025 | 1,916 | 5.0% | 3.6% | 37.8% | 12.3% | 1.5% |
| 1 January to 23 October 2026 | 1,551 | 5.3% | 3.9% | 39.2% | 13.3% | 2.2% |
How big a typical earnings move is
Most earnings reports move the stock a few percent. Of all reports, 17.2% were followed by a move of less than 1%, and 66.6% by less than 5%. A third (33.4%) moved the stock 5% or more, about one in ten (9.6%) 10% or more, and 1.3% 20% or more.
Measured against each stock's own behaviour, the median earnings move was 3.0 times the stock's median daily move over the previous 55 sessions. In 2021 that ratio was 2.5; in 2026 to date it is 3.3. The market's own move on the day explains little: subtracting the median move of all S&P 500 stocks that day lowers the average from 4.6% to 4.5%.
Gains and losses were nearly balanced. Of all reports, 48.9% were followed by a fall, the average gain was 4.7% and the average fall 4.4%. Over the last four quarters, the average gain was 5.6% and the average fall 4.9%.
After the close or before the open
Of all releases, 43.7% came out after the market closed, and the rest before the open or, rarely, during the session. Releases after the close were followed by bigger moves: 5.1% on average, with 12.8% moving the stock 10% or more, against 4.1% and 7.0% for releases before the open.
Part of the gap is who reports when. Technology companies released 68.5% of their results after the close, against 22.7% for industrial companies and 19.0% for consumer staples, which move less. The share of releases after the close barely changed over the period, between 43% and 45% a year.
Which sectors move most
Technology companies had the biggest moves over the last four quarters, 8.0% on average, with 28.2% of reports moving the stock 10% or more and 6.9% moving it 20% or more. Communication services followed at 6.4%, then consumer cyclical companies at 6.0% and healthcare at 5.9%. Utilities, real estate and financial companies moved least, between 1.9% and 3.3%.
| Sector | Companies | Reports, last four quarters | Average move | Median move | 10% or more | Average move since April 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Technology | 86 | 347 | 8.0% | 6.4% | 28.2% | 6.3% |
| Communication Services | 18 | 75 | 6.4% | 6.0% | 16.0% | 6.3% |
| Consumer Cyclical | 53 | 222 | 6.0% | 4.5% | 17.1% | 5.4% |
| Healthcare | 60 | 243 | 5.9% | 4.6% | 18.5% | 5.0% |
| Industrials | 75 | 311 | 5.5% | 4.2% | 13.8% | 4.6% |
| Consumer Defensive | 31 | 128 | 4.5% | 3.7% | 7.8% | 4.1% |
| Basic Materials | 19 | 78 | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.9% |
| Energy | 21 | 84 | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% |
| Financial Services | 69 | 299 | 3.3% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% |
| Real Estate | 30 | 122 | 3.2% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Utilities | 30 | 117 | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 2.2% |
Every sector except financial companies and utilities moved more over the last four quarters than over the whole period. The rise was largest in technology, where the average went from 6.3% over the full period to 8.0%.
The stocks that move most on earnings
We rank the 487 companies with at least eight reports by their average move over their last eight. AppLovin leads at 17.6%, including a +46.3% day on 7 November 2024, the largest single move in the sample. Twilio (TWLO $261.79 +3.22%) and Axon Enterprise (AXON $420.37 +1.39%) follow, both at 15.8%. Reddit (RDDT $144.25 -4.00%), which reports on 29 October, averaged 14.7%; our Reddit earnings preview covers what is at stake this quarter.
At the other end, eight of the ten calmest are utilities. The six calmest: Duke Energy (DUK $124.98 -0.33%) (1.0%), Charles Schwab (SCHW $90.58 -0.94%) (1.1%), WEC Energy (WEC $111.09 -0.95%) (1.1%), PG&E (PCG $12.63 -2.70%) (1.1%), DTE Energy (DTE $131.89 -0.88%) (1.1%), CMS Energy (CMS $69.58 -1.02%) (1.1%). For these companies an earnings day is barely different from any other day.
The biggest single moves since 2020
| Company | Trading day | Move |
|---|---|---|
| AppLovin | 7 November 2024 | +46.3% |
| Fiserv | 29 October 2025 | −44.0% |
| 30 October 2024 | +42.0% | |
| Dexcom | 26 July 2024 | −40.7% |
| Carvana | 19 July 2023 | +40.2% |
| Carvana | 5 August 2022 | +40.1% |
| Flex | 6 May 2026 | +39.7% |
| Twilio | 7 May 2020 | +39.6% |
| Carvana | 4 November 2022 | −39.0% |
| West Pharmaceutical Services | 13 February 2025 | −38.2% |
| Vertiv | 23 February 2022 | −36.7% |
| Align Technology | 31 July 2025 | −36.6% |
Carvana (CVNA $57.81 -1.55%) appears three times, with moves of about 40% in both directions in 2022 and 2023. Eight of the twelve largest moves came from reports released after the close.
The October 2026 season so far
The 108 reports from 1 to 23 October 2026 moved stocks 3.6% on average, and 5.6% moved the stock 10% or more. That is calmer than the same weeks of 2025 (4.0%) and 2024 (4.1%). The early weeks of a season are dominated by banks and industrial companies, and only 32.4% of this month's releases came after the close, so October's numbers are not comparable with a full quarter.
| Reports from 1 to 23 October | Reports | Average move | Median move | 10% or more |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 106 | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% |
| 2021 | 80 | 2.7% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| 2022 | 74 | 4.4% | 3.8% | 6.8% |
| 2023 | 63 | 3.7% | 2.6% | 4.8% |
| 2024 | 100 | 4.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% |
| 2025 | 111 | 4.0% | 3.2% | 9.0% |
| 2026 | 108 | 3.6% | 3.1% | 5.6% |
The largest moves so far this month: Accenture (ACN $249.37 -3.62%) (+15.8%, 1 October), Lam Research (LRCX $230.10 -0.02%) (−11.8%, 22 October), Equifax (EFX $182.36 -2.55%) (+11.3%, 20 October), Bloom Energy (BE $193.30 -11.24%) (−11.2%, 23 October), Hasbro (HAS $117.44 +0.18%) (+11.2%, 20 October), Allegion (ALLE $178.98 +1.39%) (+11.0%, 22 October).
Who reports next week
From 26 to 30 October, 133 S&P 500 companies hold earnings calls. Among the best-known names, Microsoft (MSFT $524.51 +0.66%) has averaged 7.0% over its last eight reports, ranging from −10.0% in January 2026 to +15.5% in July 2026. Alphabet (GOOGL $320.21 -1.24%) has averaged 4.1%, Eli Lilly (LLY $1,273.46 -2.54%) 8.4%, Intel (INTC $86.96 +1.72%) 9.3% and PayPal (PYPL $57.02 -0.90%) 8.0%. Visa (V $407.92 -1.55%) and Mastercard (MA $623.60 -1.52%) move much less, both averaging 2.3%, and Coca-Cola (KO $92.71 -2.76%) has averaged 2.8%.
The companies reporting next week with the biggest moves over their last eight reports:
| Company | Call date | Average move, last eight reports | Median | Largest |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio | 29 October | 15.8% | 19.4% | 24.9% |
| 29 October | 14.7% | 10.3% | 42.0% | |
| West Pharmaceutical Services | 29 October | 13.2% | 11.9% | 38.2% |
| Carvana | 28 October | 12.2% | 11.1% | 19.3% |
| Huntington Ingalls | 29 October | 11.9% | 10.4% | 26.2% |
| Teradyne | 28 October | 11.5% | 12.2% | 20.5% |
| Garmin | 28 October | 10.9% | 10.5% | 23.2% |
| Flex | 28 October | 9.9% | 5.4% | 39.7% |
| C.H. Robinson | 28 October | 9.4% | 6.5% | 19.7% |
| Intel | 29 October | 9.3% | 7.8% | 23.6% |
A company's past moves describe how much its earnings have surprised investors before, not how much they will this time. The options market prices an expected move before each report, which can differ from the history.
Do the moves continue the next day?
Not on average. Of the 4,119 reports followed by a move of 5% or more, the stock moved further in the same direction the next day 51.4% of the time, close to a coin toss, and the average next-day move in the same direction was 0.06%.
Methodology
Sample: the 493 companies in the S&P 500 on 22 October 2026 with a matched release, and their quarterly earnings releases from 1 April 2020 to 23 October 2026, one per company and fiscal quarter. The sample starts in April 2020, when the Equibles earnings call archive covers nearly every company.
Release: for each earnings call, the latest item 2.02 Form 8-K the company filed on or within ten days before the call date, or on the day after if there was none. Earlier 8-Ks in that window are usually preliminary results. The release time is the SEC's acceptance timestamp for that filing.
Reaction day: a release accepted before 4 p.m. New York time is measured on that day; a release after 4 p.m., on the next trading day. Where a call with a recorded start time began before the filing was accepted, the call time is used instead. For calls with a recorded start time, this rule picked the same trading day as the call time in 98.4% of 1,041 cases.
Move: the close-to-close change in the share price on the reaction day, from the Equibles daily price history. The normal daily move is the stock's median absolute daily change over trading sessions 6 to 60 before the reaction day. The market-adjusted move subtracts the median change of all sample stocks that day.
Exclusions: 218 calls with no matching 8-K, 369 reports with fewer than 30 trading sessions of earlier prices (mostly recent listings), 9 reports within a few days of a stock split, 17 calls that matched the same release as another call, and one release with no trading day close to it. Fiserv has no sector classification in our data and is left out of the sector tables only.
Sectors: the company's sector classification on Equibles. Periods: the calendar date of the reaction day, so July to September holds mostly reports for April to June results.
Limitations
The sample is today's index, so companies that left the S&P 500 since 2020 are missing and companies that joined are included for their full history. The fixed panel of 358 companies that reported in every year shows the same trend, which suggests the change in membership is not driving it. A close-to-close move does not capture intraday swings, and a release with a delayed filing can be assigned to the wrong day; the call-time check puts that at under 2%. We do not measure results against analyst estimates, so the study says how much stocks moved, not whether results beat or missed. October 2026 covers only the first 108 reports of the season.
Conclusion
In 2026, earnings days have moved S&P 500 stocks more than in any year since 2020. The average move has risen by more than half since 2021, more than one report in eight now moves the stock 10% or more, and the change holds for companies that have been in the sample throughout. Technology, communication services and consumer companies move most, and technology's moves have grown fastest. Utilities and banks still move little on earnings.
The Equibles earnings calendar lists every upcoming report, and each company's earnings call transcripts come with the call audio and speaker names. With the free Equibles MCP server connected, an AI agent can pull a company's price history around its past reports and run the same measurement on a single stock. Our study Agentic AI Has Overtaken Generative AI on Earnings Calls looks at what executives said on the same calls.