UiPath (PATH $13.00 -0.08%) reports Q3 FY27 results, for the quarter ended October 31, 2026, in early December. The company has not announced the date. Our estimate is Wednesday, December 2 or Thursday, December 3, after the close: the third-quarter report came on Wednesday, December 3 last year and on Thursday, December 5 in 2024, and this year's second-quarter report landed on September 3, a day earlier than in 2025.
The stock closed at $13.00 on November 6, down from $18.22 the day before the second-quarter report. UiPath beat its own revenue guide that quarter, as it has in every quarter on our guidance record since 2021, and the shares still fell 16.6% the next day, after an analyst on the call tied the after-hours drop to a new model from one of the large AI companies.
That leaves a quarter where expectations sit exactly on the guide. Seventeen analysts expect revenue of $443.0 million, and the highest of them is at $444.5 million, inside the company's $440 million to $445 million range. We think the guide again leaves room: at its midpoint it implies a smaller step up from the second quarter than UiPath has delivered in any of the last four years. We forecast $454 million.
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UiPath Q3 FY27 earnings: quick answers
When does UiPath report? Not announced. Our estimate is December 2 or 3, after the close, with the call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern as in past quarters.
What do analysts expect? Revenue of $443.0 million (17 analysts, $442.4 million to $444.5 million) and non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 (19 analysts), from the analyst estimates snapshot of November 1. For the fourth quarter the average is $520.6 million, and for the full fiscal year $1,792.2 million.
What did UiPath guide? For the third quarter, revenue of $440 million to $445 million, annualized renewal run-rate (ARR) of $1.992 billion to $1.997 billion at October 31, and non-GAAP operating income of about $100 million. For the year, revenue of $1.789 billion to $1.794 billion, ARR of $2.065 billion to $2.070 billion and non-GAAP operating income of about $445 million.
What do we forecast? Revenue of $454 million, ARR of about $2.00 billion and non-GAAP operating income of about $109 million: a beat on revenue, above every analyst's estimate.
How much could the stock move? The December 4 options price a move of about 16.7%, or $2.17, either way from the $13.00 close, in a thinly traded chain (options chain). The last two reports moved the stock +24.4% and -16.6% the next day.
How heavily is UiPath shorted? 101.3 million shares on October 15, about 19% of the roughly 523 million shares outstanding (short interest); the most-shorted stocks (MOST-SHORTED) list shows how that compares.
Why Q3 revenue will beat
UiPath reports revenue in three lines. Subscription services, which is software-as-a-service plus maintenance and support, is recognized over the contract and moves slowly. Licenses, the term licenses for software customers run on their own servers, are recognized up front when a contract starts or renews, so they swing with the calendar of large deals. Professional services is the smallest line.
| Revenue line | Q3 FY26 | Q4 FY26 | Q1 FY27 | Q2 FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Licenses | $150.0M | $215.9M | $149.3M | $123.8M |
| Subscription services | $247.6M | $251.2M | $252.9M | $266.1M |
| Professional services and other | $13.5M | $14.0M | $16.2M | $20.3M |
| Total | $411.1M | $481.1M | $418.4M | $410.3M |
The fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 and the first quarter of fiscal 2027 are derived: the full year less the first nine months, and the first half less the second quarter.
Three things point above the guide.
The third quarter is seasonally strong, and the guide ignores most of it. Revenue rose 13.7% from the second quarter to the third in fiscal 2026, 12.1% in fiscal 2025 and 13.4% in fiscal 2024. Even in fiscal 2023, a year of falling growth and a strong dollar, it rose 8.5%. The guide's $440 million to $445 million is a rise of only 7.3% to 8.5% from the second quarter's $410.3 million. The third quarter includes September, the end of the US federal fiscal year, when agencies spend what is left of their budgets; the Morgan Stanley analyst asked about the federal pipeline on the last call for exactly that reason.
UiPath guides low and beats. In each of the last four quarters revenue came in above the top of the range: by $16.1 million in the third quarter of fiscal 2026, $14.1 million in the fourth, $18.4 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2027 and $10.3 million in the second, between 2.6% and 4.6%. Our guidance record on the financials page shows it met or beat its own guidance in each of the last eight settled comparisons. A year ago the third-quarter guide implied a step of 8.5% at its midpoint, and the actual was 13.7%. A beat of the smallest of those four, $10.3 million, would put revenue at $455 million.
ARR is accelerating into the second half. In March, management guided first-half net new ARR of about $73 million. It delivered $85.1 million: $48.6 million in the first quarter and $36.5 million in the second, up from $30.7 million a year earlier. The full-year ARR guide started at $2.051 billion to $2.056 billion in March and was raised in May and again in September, to $2.065 billion to $2.070 billion. Remaining performance obligations, the contracted revenue not yet recognized, reached $1.378 billion at July 31, up 14%, and the portion due within a year rose 14% to $901 million.
Net new ARR is the change in ARR from one quarter end to the next, from the 10-Q and 10-K figures. The third quarter's guide of $54 million to $59 million sits around the $58.6 million of a year earlier. The company says the ARR guide carries a $4 million year-over-year currency headwind, against a $1 million tailwind at July 31, so currency takes about $5 million out of the quarter's net new ARR; without it the guide would be about $59 million to $64 million. That is a modest ask in a year when the first half ran 17% ahead of plan.
Our forecast for Q3 and Q4
| Q2 FY27 actual | Q3 FY27 forecast | Q3 consensus | Q3 guide | Q4 FY27 forecast | Q4 consensus | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Licenses | $123.8M | $162.0M | n/a | n/a | $228.9M | n/a |
| Subscription services | $266.1M | $272.1M | n/a | n/a | $281.3M | n/a |
| Professional services and other | $20.3M | $20.0M | n/a | n/a | $20.0M | n/a |
| Total revenue | $410.3M | $454.1M | $443.0M | $440M to $445M | $530.2M | $520.6M |
| ARR at quarter end | $1.938B | $2.000B | n/a | $1.992B to $1.997B | $2.070B | n/a |
| Non-GAAP operating income | $89.0M | $109.5M | n/a | about $100M | n/a | n/a |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.15 | $0.17 | $0.19 | n/a | n/a | $0.30 |
How we get there:
- Subscription services, $272.1 million. This line has run at 53.9% to 56.5% of average ARR, annualized, over the last five quarters (55.4% in the second quarter). We take ARR from $1.938 billion to $2.000 billion and apply 55.3%.
- Licenses, $162.0 million. That is 8% above the $150.0 million of a year earlier, below the 16% and 10% growth of the first two quarters, to leave room for the stronger dollar and for the shift to cloud contracts, which turns some up-front license revenue into subscription revenue spread over time. Applying last year's second-to-third-quarter license step, +34%, to this year's $123.8 million would give $165.7 million.
- Professional services, $20.0 million. Held flat. The line rose 82% from a year earlier. The February purchase of WorkFusion, a maker of AI agents for financial crimes compliance, adds to the year-over-year growth of every line, but it was already in the second quarter, so it does not flatter the step from the second quarter to the third.
Our total, $454.1 million, is 10.5% above a year earlier and 10.7% above the second quarter: still a smaller step than any of the last three years. On a constant-currency basis, adding back the $10 million headwind in the guide, growth would be about 13%, against 16% in the second quarter.
For the fourth quarter we use the same method: subscription at 55.3% of average ARR on ARR of $2.070 billion, the top of the guide, licenses 6% above last year's $215.9 million, and services flat, for $530.2 million. That makes $1,812.9 million for the year, $21.4 million above the middle of the guide and $20.7 million above the consensus.
Upside case, $467.5 million: licenses grow 15% from a year earlier to $172.5 million, close to the first quarter's 16%, on a strong federal September and large platform deals, with subscription at $274.0 million and services at $21.0 million.
Downside case, $439.5 million: licenses come in flat with last year at $150.0 million as more customers move to cloud contracts, subscription slows to $270.0 million and services slip to $19.5 million. That would sit just below the guide and below every analyst.
The license line decides the quarter
Almost all of the gap between our forecast and the consensus is in licenses, and that line depends on which large contracts start or renew in the quarter. When a customer signs a multi-year term license for software it runs itself, UiPath books the license portion as revenue on the start date, while the maintenance portion flows into subscription revenue over time. A few large renewals moving from October into November can move the line by $10 million or more.
Two things support a strong license quarter. Management said 18 of its top 20 deals in the second quarter included AI, and that when AI is part of a deal, the deal is “naturally much larger”. And the company signed “one of our largest new logos in company history”, a top Canadian bank, in the second quarter. Large new platform deals sold with up-front licenses land in the license line in the quarter they start.
The weight on the other side is the cloud shift. Cloud ARR, which includes hybrid and software-as-a-service contracts, was about $1.3 billion at July 31, up more than 19%, against 12% for ARR as a whole. Every customer that moves from a term license to a cloud contract moves revenue from the license line into the subscription line, spread over the contract. Management put that headwind at about 1% of total revenue growth for the year.
The vocabulary on the calls has changed too. The word “agentic” came up 75 times on the second-quarter call of fiscal 2026 and 8 times on the second-quarter call of fiscal 2027, while the company now describes itself as “a leader in business orchestration and automation”. The selling point has moved from AI agents to the software that coordinates agents, robots and people, the part of the process UiPath says needs to run the same way every time.
Margins
Non-GAAP gross margin slipped from 84.3% in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to 81.9% in the second quarter of fiscal 2027. Professional services, which cost more to deliver than they bring in ($37.9 million of non-GAAP cost against $20.3 million of revenue in the second quarter), grew from 3% to 5% of revenue, and the cloud mix carries hosting costs. The company guides about 84% for the year, which needs the license-heavy second half to lift the mix.
Operating costs moved the other way. Non-GAAP operating income rose from $62.3 million to $89.0 million year over year, a 21.7% margin against 17.2%. Stock-based pay fell 42% to $45.0 million, 11% of revenue, and UiPath posted its fourth GAAP-profitable quarter in a row, with $31.6 million of GAAP operating income.
We assume the guide's roughly $342.5 million of non-GAAP costs holds and that extra revenue above the guide midpoint comes through at an 82% gross margin, which gives non-GAAP operating income of $109.5 million, a 24.1% margin.
On EPS, read the tax line. In the first two quarters of fiscal 2027, non-GAAP net income implied a tax rate of 27.2% and 26.7% on non-GAAP operating income plus interest and other income, after the company released most of its US tax valuation allowance last year. At 27%, the guided $100 million of operating income plus about $10.5 million of interest income, and no other income, gives $0.15 a share on 523 million shares; our $109.5 million gives $0.17. The $0.19 average needs about $126 million of operating income at that tax rate, a large other-income gain, or a tax rate near 10%. If UiPath reports revenue above $450 million with EPS of $0.16 or $0.17, the tax rate, not the business, explains the gap to the consensus.
Balance sheet and dilution
UiPath had $1.405 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at July 31 and no debt. It paid $160.0 million of initial cash for WorkFusion in February, plus contingent payments valued at $29.6 million, and spent $268.5 million on buybacks in the first half: 20.4 million shares in the first quarter at an average of $11.45 and 2.4 million in the second at $9.61 (buybacks). The board approved a new $500 million program in March after completing the previous $1 billion one.
Weighted diluted shares fell from 542.9 million a year earlier to 523.0 million, and the company guides about 523 million basic shares for the third quarter. Management targets 2% to 3% dilution from stock pay this year before buybacks. Deferred revenue, $615.3 million at July 31 including the non-current part, falls through the year as invoices sent at the busy fiscal year-end turn into revenue; it was $707.3 million at January 31.
At $13.00, the roughly 523 million shares are worth about $6.8 billion. Less the cash, the business is valued near $5.4 billion, about 3 times this year's guided revenue.
What management said
On guidance, the new CFO kept the old philosophy:
“We guide to what we see in front of us, and we maintain a prudent outlook.” Hitesh Ramani, CFO, Q2 FY27 earnings call
On the second quarter itself:
“We delivered another strong quarter, exceeding guidance across all key financial metrics.” Ashim Gupta, COO, Q2 FY27 earnings release
On whether better AI models make UiPath's automation less necessary, the question behind the stock's fall after the report:
“Everything that can be done by automation and orchestration should be done by that because it's exact, it's reliable, it's tokenless, it's costless.” Daniel Dines, CEO, Q2 FY27 earnings call
And on the federal business, which closes its fiscal year inside UiPath's third quarter:
“I think our federal business is doing a really exceptional job.” Ashim Gupta, COO, Q2 FY27 earnings call
The full call is on the Q2 FY27 call page, and earlier calls are on the earnings calls page. The second-quarter report also brought a management reshuffle: Ramani, the chief accounting officer since 2021, became CFO and gave the third-quarter guide on his first day in the role, and Gupta kept the COO role to focus on sales execution. This is Ramani's first report as CFO.
Positioning
Short interest. FINRA counted 101.3 million shares short on October 15, down from a peak of 138.9 million on June 30 but more than twice the 42.1 million of November 2025. That is about 19% of the shares outstanding, and about 3.7 days of average volume. FINRA publishes the October 30 figure on November 10.
Options. The December 4 expiry, the first after our estimated report date, prices a move of about $2.17, or 16.7%, from the $13.00 close on November 6, with at-the-money implied volatility of 80% against 67% for the November 13 expiry. The chain is thin, 1,393 contracts of open interest, so read it as a rough guide. The two most recent reports moved the stock +24.4% (December 4, 2025) and -16.6% (September 4, 2026).
Insiders. There were no open-market purchases. Daniel Dines sold 2.5 million shares on October 15 and 16 at about $13, for $33.1 million, and 1.4 million on August 19 at $16.07, all under pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans. The September 3 8-K disclosed a plan he adopted on July 15 to sell up to 5 million shares through February 1, 2027, which the company says is under 5% of his holdings. Other executives, including Gupta, Malpani, Ramani and Brubaker, sold smaller amounts under plans (insider trading).
Holders. BlackRock is the largest institutional holder with 46.2 million shares, followed by Tetragon with 31.0 million and Vanguard. Alphabet still holds 7.0 million shares (holdings; 13F positions as of September 30, with funds that have not yet filed shown at June 30).
Our assumptions
| Assumption | Our value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| ARR at October 31 | $2.000B | Top of the guide plus $3M; the last three ARR results beat the top by $2M to $4M |
| Subscription revenue as a share of average ARR, annualized | 55.3% | 53.9% to 56.5% over the last five quarters, 55.4% in Q2 |
| License growth from a year earlier | +8% | +16% in Q1 and +10% in Q2; last year's Q2 to Q3 step would give +10% |
| Professional services | $20.0M | Flat with Q2's $20.3M, WorkFusion included in both |
| Currency | $10M year-over-year headwind | Stated in the Q3 guide |
| Non-GAAP costs | About $342.5M | Implied by the guide: midpoint revenue less $100M |
| Non-GAAP tax rate | 27% | 27.2% in Q1 and 26.7% in Q2 |
| Diluted shares | 523M | Guide for basic shares, Q2 diluted 523.0M |
Risks to our call
- License timing. One or two large renewals slipping into November would take the license line, and our beat, with them.
- A faster cloud shift. If more of the quarter's large deals are cloud contracts, revenue moves out of the quarter even as ARR grows.
- A new CFO's first report. Ramani may guide the fourth quarter more cautiously than the full-year range implies, and the stock reacts to the guide more than to the quarter, as September showed.
- Currency. The guide carries a $10 million year-over-year headwind; a stronger dollar in October would add to it.
- AI fear, not results. The stock fell 16.6% after a quarter that beat on every line. A beat does not protect the shares if investors read a new AI model as a threat to automation spending.
What to watch on the call
- ARR against $2 billion. The top of the guide is $1.997 billion. Crossing $2 billion is the headline number analysts asked about on the last call.
- Licenses against $150 million. Above last year's figure means large deals landed on time; below it means a slip or a faster cloud shift.
- Net new ARR. The $54 million to $59 million guide against $58.6 million a year earlier, and whether the full-year ARR guide rises a third time.
- The fourth-quarter guide. The company's full-year range implies about $515 million to $525 million; the consensus is $520.6 million.
- Federal. Any number on the September quarter-end for US agencies.
- Pricing. The CEO said the company is probably moving towards outcome-based pricing that includes the AI tokens a task needs. Watch how much new AI revenue is priced per transaction.
Sources
- UiPath, Q2 FY27 earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1, filed September 3, 2026), SEC accession 0001734722-26-000047: document
- UiPath, 10-Q for the quarter ended July 31, 2026 (filed September 8, 2026), SEC accession 0001734722-26-000050: document
- UiPath, 10-Q for the quarter ended April 30, 2026 (filed June 4, 2026), SEC accession 0001734722-26-000041: document
- UiPath, Q4 FY26 earnings release (8-K, filed March 11, 2026), SEC accession 0001734722-26-000007: document
- UiPath, Q3 FY26 earnings release (8-K, filed December 3, 2025), SEC accession 0001734722-25-000046: document
- UiPath, Q2 FY27 earnings call transcript (September 3, 2026): document
- UiPath, Q4 FY26 earnings call transcript (March 11, 2026): document
- Analyst consensus snapshot of November 1, 2026; FINRA short interest of October 15, 2026; option chain and prices as of November 6, 2026; Form 4 filings through October 22, 2026.
This article is our analysis of public filings and our own financial model. It is not investment advice, and forecasts can be wrong. Equibles staff may hold positions in the securities discussed.