Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to The Andersons 2020 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call. I would now like to introduce your host for today's conference call, Mr. John Kraus, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin, sir.

Thanks, Kevin. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for The Andersons Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Call. We have provided a slide presentation that will enhance today's discussion. If you're viewing this presentation via our webcast, the slides and commentary will be in sync. This webcast is being recorded, and the recording and the supporting slides will be made available on the Investors page of our website at andersonsinc.com shortly. Certain information discussed today constitutes forward-looking statements, and actual results could differ materially from those presented in the forward-looking statements as a result of many factors, including general economic conditions; weather; competitive conditions; conditions in the company's industries, both in the United States and internationally; the COVID-19 pandemic; and additional factors that are described in the company's publicly filed documents, including its '34 Act filings and the prospectuses prepared in connection with the company's offerings. Today's call includes financial information, which the company's independent auditors have not completely reviewed. Although the company believes that the assumptions upon which the financial information and its forward-looking statements are based are reasonable, it can give no assurance that these assumptions will prove to be accurate. This presentation and today's prepared remarks contain non-GAAP financial measures. The company believes that adjusted pretax income; adjusted pretax income attributable to the company; adjusted net income attributable to the company; adjusted diluted EPS; earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA; adjusted EBITDA; and cash flow from operations before changes in working capital provide additional information to investors and others about its operations, allowing an evaluation of underlying operating performance and better period-to-period comparability. These measures do not and should not be considered as alternatives to net income, income before income taxes, net income per share and cash provided by or used in operating activities as determined by generally accepted accounting principles. On the call today with me, as usual, are Pat Bowe, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Brian Valentine, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. In addition, our Corporate Controller, Mike Hoelter, is joining us today. He'll be assuming responsibility for Investor Relations beginning next quarter as I am retiring in mid-March. After our prepared remarks, Pat, Brian, and I will be happy to take your questions. With that, Pat, the floor is yours.

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. I appreciate you joining our call this morning to review our fourth quarter results. I want to begin today by thanking our 2,400 employees for successfully rising to the challenge in a year that we will not soon forget. Our plant employees adopted the necessary additional practices needed to continue safely running our essential business operations, and our office staff quickly adapted to work efficiently from home. We could not have accomplished what we did in 2020 without their tireless efforts. John Kraus mentioned in his opening remarks that he is retiring next month after 33 years of service to our company. John has held positions in tax, rail and most recently as Head of our Investor Relations. I want to thank John publicly for his work in IR for us the last 4 years and for his outstanding contributions over his long and successful career with The Andersons. ANDE is a company he grew up with, as John is the grandson of the company's Founder, Harold Anderson. We wish him all the best in his retirement. We also look forward to Mike Hoelter taking responsibility for managing this important function. Now let's look at our results for the quarter. The Trade business led the way in the fourth quarter by earning adjusted pretax income that exceeded 2019 results by more than 60%. Strong merchandising results and grain elevations, which were the best since 2014, were bolstered by robust exports, particularly to China. We shipped the most vessels from the Port of Toledo in decades, and exports out of our Houston terminal were the highest in 4 years. The grain price rally also provided welcome trading volatility. The Ethanol business performed well in the fourth quarter in spite of significantly weaker year-over-year crush margins and recording a large mark-to-market charge. On a more positive note, the business netted better income from high-protein feed products, DDGs, corn oil and trading. We're executing well against our high-protein feed strategy and are realizing the incremental revenue on the new higher protein feed products that we shared with you all at our Investor Day last year. We're very optimistic about the outlook for these enhanced feed products. The Plant Nutrient business closed its best year since 2014 with a solid quarter, driven by a higher year-over-year fertilizer volumes. Like grain prices, fertilizer prices have risen considerably as well. Rail reported modest income that was below last year's results. The decrease reflects our decision to sell fewer cars during the quarter. Continued lower rail traffic year-over-year negatively impacted both leasing and repair. We've implemented significant cost reductions over the last several years. We continue to expect that these actions should result in more than $25 million in permanent cost reductions. These efforts were demonstrated in 2020 and have set us up well for future growth. Overall, we're happy with our fourth quarter results and the momentum we built entering into 2021. I'm now going to turn things over to Brian. When he's finished, I'll be back to discuss our outlook for early 2021.

Thanks, Pat. We're now turning to our fourth quarter results on Slide #5. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the company reported net income attributable to The Andersons of $16 million or $0.48 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $19.4 million or $0.59 per diluted share on revenues of $2.5 billion. In the fourth quarter of 2019, we reported net income attributable to the company of $6.6 million or $0.19 per diluted share and adjusted net income of $18.4 million or $0.55 per diluted share on revenues of $1.9 billion. Adjusted pretax income attributable to the company increased $4.8 million year-over-year as a sizable increase in trade's performance and lower corporate expenses more than offset a small loss in Ethanol that was driven by a $6.6 million noncash mark-to-market charge, as Pat mentioned earlier. Adjusted EBITDA attributable to the company was $85 million in the fourth quarter of 2020, which was comparable to 2019 despite the impacts of the pandemic on our 2020 results. For the full year 2020, net income attributable to The Andersons was $7.7 million or $0.23 per diluted share and adjusted net income attributable to The Andersons was $2.9 million or $0.09 per diluted share on revenues of $8.2 billion. These numbers compare to reported net income of $18.3 million earned in the same period of 2019 or $0.55 per diluted share and adjusted net income attributable to the company of $43 million or $1.30 per diluted share on revenues of $8.2 billion. The year-over-year decline was largely driven by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on our Ethanol business. This was offset in part by significantly better performance in our Plant Nutrient segment and considerably lower corporate expenses driven by our cost savings initiatives. Full-year adjusted EBITDA was $226 million compared to 2019 full-year adjusted EBITDA of $254 million. Our full year 2020 reported effective tax rate of 42% included the effects of $14.8 million in CARES Act tax benefits. Those benefits resulted in more than $39 million in tax refund requests, most of which we expect to receive in 2021. We currently believe that our 2021 effective income tax rate will be in the range of 24% to 26%, excluding the tax impact of income from the noncontrolling interest. Now we'll move on to a review of each of our 4 businesses, beginning with Trade on Slide 6. Trade reported pretax income of $28.3 million and adjusted pretax income of $29.3 million compared to a pretax loss of $19.9 million and adjusted pretax income of $17.6 million in the same period of 2019. Fourth quarter 2019 adjusted pretax income excluded approximately $40 million in asset impairment charges. Income from merchandising grains, feed products and all other commodities was strong compared to fourth quarter 2019 results due to increased market volatility. Strong export demand improved elevation margins across our network to levels not seen since 2014. Trade had adjusted EBITDA for the quarter of $45.8 million compared to adjusted EBITDA of $37.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year 2020, Trade recorded adjusted EBITDA of $95.5 million compared to $123.4 million for the full year of 2019. Moving to Slide 7. Ethanol reported a fourth quarter pretax loss attributable to the company of $3.5 million compared to adjusted fourth quarter 2019 pretax income attributable to the company of $8.1 million. Margins were considerably lower due to increasing corn costs that were not completely offset by higher ethanol prices. Ethanol's fourth quarter results also reflect a $6.6 million noncash mark-to-market adjustment on our forward positions. As a positive, income from high-protein feed and corn oil sales as well as Ethanol trading results were higher year-over-year. Ethanol recorded EBITDA of $16.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared with $25.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. Turning to Slide 8. The Plant Nutrient business recorded adjusted pretax income of $3.2 million in the fourth quarter, down slightly from $3.9 million in the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year, Plant Nutrient recorded pretax income of $16 million, which was nearly double the 2019 result. Volumes were up more than 20% for the quarter and 15% for the full year. Plant Nutrient's EBITDA for the quarter was $10.8 million, down slightly from the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year, adjusted EBITDA was $47.2 million, which was up 12%, primarily due to favorable weather during both the spring and fall application seasons, enabling increased fertilizer sales volumes. Turning to Slide 9. The Rail business earned adjusted pretax income of $2 million in the fourth quarter compared with pretax earnings of $4.5 million last year. The year-over-year change was driven by lower income from car sales. Rail recorded adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 million for the quarter compared with EBITDA of $17.6 million for the fourth quarter of 2019. For the full year 2020, Rail recorded EBITDA of $55.7 million compared to $65.7 million in 2019. Before Pat returns for his closing remarks, I'd like to comment briefly on some of our accomplishments in generating cash, ensuring adequate liquidity, managing capital spending and reducing our long-term debt. We generated $74.6 million and $73 million in cash from operations before working capital changes during the fourth quarters of 2020 and 2019, respectively. For the full year, we produced cash from operations before working capital changes of $200.9 million and $192.6 million in 2020 and 2019, respectively. Working capital, readily marketable inventory and short-term debt, each increased year-over-year, primarily due to higher commodity prices. Earlier this month, we amended our primary credit agreement to increase our short-term borrowing capacity by $250 million. These funds provide additional liquidity to support the recent and potential future increases in commodity prices. We spent $16.6 million net of proceeds from asset sales on capital projects during the fourth quarter and $86.8 million for the full year 2020, well beneath the $100 million target we set for the year. By comparison, for the full year 2019, we spent more than $220 million net of proceeds from asset sales on capital projects. We expect our total 2021 capital spending to be in the range of $100 million to $125 million, with approximately 60% of that amount spent on maintenance capital. We also will continue to evaluate growth projects that require spending in excess of currently planned amounts where returns exceed our hurdle rates. Long-term debt decreased by almost $100 million during 2020. We remain focused on reducing our long-term debt by an additional $200 million to $250 million and achieving our targeted long-term debt-to-EBITDA ratio of less than 2.5x by the end of 2023.

Thanks, Brian. We're very encouraged about how things are setting up for us in the early part of 2021. The rally in grain and other commodity prices that began in mid-November has been a blessing for ag market participants, unlike anything we've seen in a long time. Strong exports, particularly to China, have led the rally, which we think could last for some time as being driven by increases in demand. Expectations are that more corn acres will be planted in 2021, which will be good for both our Trade and Plant Nutrient segments. These conditions continue to drive strong elevation margins and considerable volatility, which we welcome because it creates good merchandising opportunities for us. In addition, we are seeing excellent results in other products we merchandise such as feed ingredients and propane. Spot ethanol crush margins have fallen sharply over the last 90 days and continue to be unseasonably low. We hedged more than one-third of our expected first quarter gallons before year-end, which should help mitigate continued low margins during the first quarter. Our plants continue to run well at relatively low variable costs per gallon. This week's polar vortex has impacted a large portion of the country. Natural gas shortages and power outages are causing curtailments to a large number of ethanol plants. This should reduce ethanol production and decrease stocks in the short term. As with the rest of the industry, we're dependent on the balance between gasoline demand and ethanol supply, but we see growth in E15 and increasing export demand as potential tailwinds later in the year. Traditional DDGs are trading well above corn values, and in addition, we're selling more higher-value feed products. We're also benefiting from a sustained uptick in corn oil values, driven by increased demand for renewable diesel. And our trading platform for other renewable diesel feedstocks is growing. We anticipate that our Plant Nutrient business will maintain its 2020 momentum into early 2021. We also expect some improvement in sales, assuming continued higher commodity prices and another strong planting season. In our Rail business, weekly intermodal and grain car loadings were now up year-over-year. But that improvement, unfortunately, has not found its way to most other freight and tank car markets yet. Consequently, we see a flat demand picture for railcar leasing and repair services through much of 2021. We'll hit a milestone this year as we celebrate our 25th anniversary as a public company next week. We're excited to be ringing the closing bell for NASDAQ next Monday. We have grown into a much larger, stronger, more nimble, and innovative company in the North American ag supply chain in the past 25 years. We look forward to providing extraordinary service to our customers, supporting our suppliers and communities, and rewarding our employees and shareholders for many years to come. With that, I'd like to hand the call back to Kevin, our operator, and we'll be happy to entertain your questions.

Our first question comes from Ben Bienvenu with Stephens Inc.

Congrats on a solid closing for the year.

Yes. Thanks, Ben.

I want to ask as it relates to the '21 outlook. You talked about, on the Trade side specifically, elevated elevation margins as a result of the strong demand backdrop but solid merchandising opportunities. Can you help us think about weighing that very constructive backdrop against a lack of crop carry? And just kind of how you're thinking about what the setup today looks like maybe relative to what you saw 3 months ago and relative to 2020, if you could?

Sure, Ben. That's a really good question. And things have changed pretty dramatically over the last year, as you guys have been following along with us as the market rally, led by primarily exports to China, have inverted the markets in corn, wheat, and beans, caused a tightness of spreads which has eliminated carry and storage income for the industry, which also incents you to push that grain out. So where loadings have been high, elevations have been high, and that's a good part of the business where you're creating margin opportunities and earning elevations, loading out grain domestically or for export. The challenge is that, that wheat storage income, we used to rely on year-on-year over the previous years, has been gone. And so we don't have that, as we've highlighted in previous calls. But the opportunities to merchandise and trade well, as you've seen in this last quarter, by a broad array of product lines, has really contributed to the strong earnings, and we think that will continue.

Okay. Great. On the capital allocation front, you guys have done a nice job reducing long-term debt. Obviously, working capital is higher with higher readily marketable inventories. But as you think about deploying capital from here, can you give us a sense of when you look at growth CapEx opportunities and the relative return profiles of in-house investment opportunities versus tuck-in or more meaningful M&A, what the landscape looks like of the sets of opportunities that you have?

Yes, Ben. This is Brian. That's a great question. From that perspective, I would say it's likely a combination. When we consider our Trade group, we see many areas where we can pursue asset-light investments that could provide nice growth opportunities and allow us to venture into new areas. For instance, renewable diesel is one area we're exploring, along with higher protein feed segments. Overall, it's probably a mix. I don't envision us making a large acquisition like Lansing at this time, but looking at smaller bolt-on opportunities in the $50 million to $100 million range is definitely something we would consider.

I’d like to expand on that point, and Brian addressed it very well. We have a strong pipeline of projects that we have been developing for years. As Ben mentioned, these include bolt-ons that expand our existing product lines or introduce new lines at our fertilizer or food ingredient plants, as well as new trading platforms. I like to think of them as branches on our two main sectors: fertilizer and grain. Within these sectors, there are many branches we can further develop. We are actively pursuing this strategy as it allows us to enhance our portfolio of margin opportunities. We are particularly focused on areas that are aligned with current trends in food and environmental sustainability. Many of these trends are linked to product lines we are keen to invest in.

Best of luck with the start of the year.

Thank you.

Our next question comes from Ken Zaslow with Bank of Montreal.

John, I guess it's a good way to go out. So I'll say that. Good luck.

Thank you.

A couple of questions. First is on the trading of vegetable oils as well as the co-products, corn, all that stuff, how much profitability does that add? How do we contextualize that in terms of the outlook? Is this a needle-mover? Is it a marginal? How do I think about this going forward? Just because I think it's a real opportunity. I just can't figure out how to size it.

Yes. You're right on with that, Ken, is that we think long-term, it's a needle-mover, but short term, not so. We've been positive in earnings, but they're not big enough to call it a needle-mover near term. Now the increase in corn oil value, because that just shows up in our crush margin, right, so that's a nice benefit to ethanol in general, and that's been a good play for us to direct our corn oil to the renewable diesel market. We set up this trading desk earlier in the year, have some very experienced merchants on that and look forward to opportunities to grow it. It's profitable and doing well to start-up, but I'd say not a needle-mover today, but we're building sort of the foundation to have a pretty good business there as we look forward going forward.

Okay. Regarding the Trade and Grain group, I want to clarify your thoughts on it. While you don't have the elevation or forward market on wheat, do the improvements in elevation and grade for corn balance that out? Do you think it’s performing as you expected, or is it better or worse? I sense it's actually better than your initial expectations, even without considering the wheat carry.

Yes, I believe you are correct. Elevations have remained high, and we anticipate this trend to continue. Additionally, we've experienced favorable volatility that presents merchandising opportunities in the interior, even with disruptions like the weather this week. It's important to navigate through these challenges and make things happen. We appreciate this type of market volatility. With the current inverted markets, we don't expect to see significant changes in carry until the next crop arrives, which will persist throughout the year. The positive aspect is that merchandising has more than compensated for this, and it appears that this trend will continue for some time.

Okay. My final question is regarding the ethanol side. Considering everything, I understand there was a $300 million EBITDA target. Does that still seem achievable even though ethanol is slightly less favorable, while the grain situation is improving? Should we view it as a flexible scenario where it all balances out to around that figure? Is that the right way to approach it?

Yes. I wish the solution was that simple. Let's revisit our initial goal set in December 2017 during our first Investor Day, where I announced a target of a $300 million run rate by the end of 2020. At that time, some viewed this ambition as bold and aggressive. The positive aspect was our EBITDA growth from $157 million in 2017 to $177 million in 2018, and then to $254 million in 2019. However, this year we saw a decline, finishing at $226 million. The pandemic and its effect on ethanol demand significantly impacted our performance, leading to a $40 million drop in earnings compared to 2019, culminating in a $25 million loss for the year. At our December Investor Day, I mentioned that achieving the $300 million goal would be feasible only with a substantial turnaround in ethanol for 2021. Unfortunately, the first quarter has started with negative crush margins, making it more challenging to fully rebound in earnings this year to hit that target.

Our next question comes from Eric Larson with Seaport Global.

Congratulations, John, and best of luck going forward. Nice quarter, everyone. I would like to clarify Ken's question. I understand the volatility will aid you, and the elevated margins are promising. However, will we need to see a change in the inverse futures curve with the new crop to achieve a significant positive increase in trade earnings this year?

Yes, I believe you know, Eric, that we've recognized the merchandising opportunities and the margins we're achieving across all our product lines. We're quite optimistic that this trend will continue throughout 2021, which is reassuring. I mentioned that I don't expect to see a reversal in the softening until we have a clear understanding of what the new crop will look like. There was a significant plan regarding acreage, and it may be possible to realize that by the end of the year, but that would occur quite late in the year, as you are aware. Therefore, it won't have a substantial impact on 2021 until the fourth quarter in terms of widening carries and capturing storage income.

Yes. I would expect that to carry over into fiscal 2022.

Into 2022, yes. Correct.

Yes. Okay. My next question is about Rail. That business seems to be struggling at the moment. I believe your 2021 outlook for it is quite conservative. What changes might lead to a better outlook for Rail?

We have seen positive movements in grain, which benefits our business, and intermodal growth has increased, although we haven't experienced a significant recovery overall. A comprehensive economic recovery from COVID, along with growth in sectors like chemicals, plastics, and housing, could really enhance car movement and utilization rates. Additionally, rising scrap metal prices have allowed us to scrap some cars, which helps to reduce the overall fleet size in the market. However, it's important to note that rail movements tend to be slow to change. Therefore, our outlook for 2021 remains relatively flat, but by the end of the year, we agree that we may have reached a bottom. If there is any significant improvement, we would expect it to happen later in the year.

Okay. Then the final question, and I'll pass it on. The setup for Plant Nutrient this year is really good. Obviously, we've got really good crop prices. Farmers are going to spend the money to maximize yields. We're going to see some acreage increases. But you didn't really talk that much about margins. I suspect that we could get back to some margins that we had in the 2011, '12, '13 time frame, maybe '14 time frame. Would that coincide with your thinking as well?

I think I'd be probably on the optimistic side. And the problem is we just don't know because we've seen such a strong rally in fertilizer materials here in the last 90 days. So yes, we've had a big increase in farmer income and in commodity prices, which sets up really nice for fertilizer, but fertilizer prices have really spiked. Great for our suppliers to finally see a nice price increase. But I think the big thing going into this winter here will be the tightness of supply and making sure you can get supply and capture margin and then that you can be able to have the right volumes and right position. We feel good about that. I'm a little bit concerned about some of the value-added stuff. Even though farmer income is higher and crop inputs are higher, so are the raw material inputs for those products, which have really spiked. So we're not maybe runaway bullish on fertilizer margins. I feel that we'll be solid. And we do feel we should have a solid volume year. We might have pulled a little bit forward in this year because we have such a good fall season, that we'll wait to see how that outlook is. But bottom line fundamentals, as you said, are set up really well for fertilizer. And we'll be updating that margin outlook as we go through the year.

Can you provide your thoughts on the current inventory levels in the distributor network for fertilizers? I remember that years ago, The Andersons had too much inventory. How do you stand now, considering it's mainly a pass-through business? Have you made any forward purchases for your spring fertilizer sales?

The simple answer is that the marketplace is very tight with shipments, varying by product type. We typically plan well in advance with our key suppliers, and we expect that to continue. However, if you wanted to increase your orders today, it wouldn't be feasible due to the limited availability of additional volume. Overall, we can expect a tight supply and demand season for fertilizer along with a positive rebound in fertilizer values.

Yes. No, I would have assumed that if you were going to do that, you'd have had to anticipated that in your fourth quarter. So okay.

Our next question comes from Ben Klieve with National Securities.

Before I ask, I got cut off for a few minutes here, Brian, during your comments. So if I'm making you guys repeat the stuff, I apologize. But a couple of questions around the Ethanol business in the context of the immediate effects of the weather event that you discussed plus the just general state of the industry. How do those variables make you think about your maintenance schedule coming up here in the spring? Should we expect a material shutdown? Or is this going to be kind of a return back to normal maintenance that you saw in 2019 and prior?

Yes, having been involved in the Ethanol business for about 25 years, we've experienced some very cold winters. It's important to properly conduct maintenance shutdowns because neglecting them can lead to higher costs down the line. This spring, we plan to be very careful with our maintenance shutdowns and complete them on schedule. It will be interesting to see how other industry participants manage their shutdowns this year given the softer margins. They may choose to extend their shutdowns based on their grain positions, but that remains uncertain. Regarding the polar vortex, many of us have been dealing with snowfall and cold temperatures recently. Our new plant, ELEMENT, in Kansas experienced a natural gas curtailment, which is common in many Western states such as Texas and Nebraska. Overall, we feel confident as we have secured firm power supply for winter months across all our plants. However, there are a significant number of plants that may either be idle or face potential shutdowns due to curtailments, but we expect this situation to be short-lived. It seems this cold weather is only a temporary issue, which may lead to reduced production and lower stocks, but the key concern is the long-term outlook for supply and demand.

Got it. Very good. I was wondering about the status of the ELEMENT plant as it continues to work towards being fully productive and integrated. Do you have any updates on the outlook for that plant over the next couple of quarters?

The timing of the cold weather was not beneficial for us. To be straightforward, we are currently working on our approval process for California, which requires a 90-day period. However, we are optimistic because the plant is operational. We have begun the trials for the California Air Resources Board's LCFS program, and we believe we could achieve CARB certification by late summer, around the end of July. We'll have to see how the delay unfolds. While corn prices are relatively high, we are also seeing favorable feed prices, and we need to secure California's approval for the plant, as that is a significant milestone.

Well, best of luck navigating these dynamics.

Thanks, Ben.

And I'm actually not showing any further questions at this time.

Okay. Thanks, Kevin. We want to thank you all for joining us this morning. I also want to mention again that this presentation and slides with additional supporting information are available on the Investors page of our website at andersonsinc.com. Our next earnings conference call is scheduled for Wednesday, May 5, 2021, at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time, where we will review our first quarter 2021 results. I hope you will join Pat, Brian, and Mike again at that time. It's been a pleasure to serve you. Until then, be well.

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's presentation. You may now disconnect, and have a wonderful day.